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Urban appropriation of rural waters in India

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Title:
Urban appropriation of rural waters in India applying a complex social-ecological system (SES) perspective in policy development
Creator:
Gnanasekaran, Shanmuga Priya ( author )
Place of Publication:
Denver, CO
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University of Colorado Denver
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English
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1 electronic file (362 pages). : ;

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Subjects / Keywords:
Water -- Law and legislation -- India ( lcsh )
Water resources development -- India ( lcsh )
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bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Review:
To meet the demand for water, cities in developing countries, particularly in India, frequently appropriate water from distant and largely rural supplies by administrative decisions. When water is in short supply relative to demand in water supplying regions, rural-urban water transfers have multiple consequences for the water supplying rural regions. Cumulative impacts are often determined by the way water transfers are implemented, the way farmers respond to changes in water availability, and the form of governmental strategies available to farmers in managing the transition. However, past empirical inquiries regarding the impact of water transfers on preexisting uses in water supplying regions ignore these intervening or modifying mechanisms, and as a result, present contrasting results. To fill this research gap, the specific case of water transfers from longstanding agricultural uses to the rapidly growing city of Chennai in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu was chose for analysis. To analyze the process of water transfer in its entirety in the selected case, this study adopted a broad systems perspective, conceptualizing the water supplying region in the selected case as a complex Social-Ecological System, and the water transfer process as an external disturbance on the system, as it is an administrative decision. The literature on resilience, Social-Ecological Systems (SES), and adaptive capacity informed the identification of variables and development of propositions in this study. The Social-Ecological (SES) was employed to organize multiple variables. The analysis established that the study area is characterized by heterogeneous farmers with different levels of response capacity resulting in different forms of responses. The capacity of the farmers to cope and adapt to changes is varied and chiefly determined by the size of the landholding, education, and age. The diverse responses by farmers help in the adaptive maintenance of agricultural activities in the region. However, these response, mostly short-term coping strategies, do not improve their resiliency for future shocks. The social system possesses many attributes that may lead to negative transformational trajectories. The current water transfer practice reinforce the suboptimal path that the supplying region is on, which may ultimately lead to an inadvertent negative transformation of the system, creating problems that go beyond the scope of what water supply alone can address. The results indicate that water problems constructed in rural region by actions so of an adjoining city might ultimately be returning to the city at a later stage in the form of hyper-urbanization. Thus, if for no other reason that self-interest, cities have the responsibility to protect the systems from which their water is extracted. Three scenarios were constructed to show the different trajectories that the supplying rural region might follow. Two normative scenarios, 'Regional Resilience' and 'Regional Transformation', display that the water transfers can be used as an opportunity to revisit and improve some long-standing issues in the systems. Based on the analysis and results, policy recommendations for rural-urban water transfers are presented. The insights and solutions developed in this study may be extended to other places and developmental activities exhibiting similar characteristics.
Thesis:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Colorado Denver. Design and planning
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographic references.
System Details:
System requirements: Adobe Reader.
General Note:
College of Architecture and Planning
Statement of Responsibility:
by Shanmuga Priya Gnanasekaran.

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|University of Colorado Denver
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|Auraria Library
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911401891 ( OCLC )
ocn911401891

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URBAN APPROPRIATION OF RURAL WATERS IN INDIA: APPLYING A COMPLEX SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM (SES) PERSPECTIVE IN POLICY DEVELOPMENT b y SHANMUGA PRIYA GNANASEKARAN B.Arch., Anna University, 1994 M.L.Arch., C enter for E nvironmental P lanning and Technology University, 1996 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Design and Planning Program 2015

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ii 2015 SHANMUGA PRIYA GNANASEKARAN ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

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iii This thesis for the Doctor of Philosophy degree by Shanmuga Priya Gnanasekaran has been approved for the Design and Planning Program by Thomas Clark, Advisor Deborah Thomas Chair Tanya Heikkila Brian Muller April 24, 2015

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iv Gnanasekaran, Shanmuga Priya (Ph.D., Design and Planning) Urban Appropriation of Rural Waters in India: Applying a Complex Social Ecological System (SES) Perspective in Policy Development Thesis Directed by Professor Emeritus Thomas A. Clark. ABSTRACT T o meet the demand for water c ities in developing countries, particularly in India, frequently appropriate water from distant and largely rural supplies by administrative decisi ons When water is in short supply relative to demand in water supplying regions, rural urban water transfers have multiple consequences for the water supplying rural regions. Cumulative impacts are often determined by the way water transfers are implemented the way farmers respond to changes in water availability, and the form of governmental strategies available to farmers in managing the transition. However, past empirical inquiries regarding the impact of water transfers on preexisting uses in water supp lying regions ignore these intervening or modifying mechanisms, and as a result, present contrasting results. To fill this research gap, the specific case of water transfers from longstanding agricultural uses to the rapidly growing city of Chennai in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu was chosen for analysis. To analyze the proce ss of water transfer in its entirety in the selected case, this study adopted a broad systems perspective, conceptualizing the water supplying region in the selected case as a complex Social Ecological System, and the water transfer process as an external disturbance on the system, as it is an administrative decision. The literature on resilience, Social Ecological Systems (SES), and adaptive capacity informed the identification of variables and development of

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v propositions in this study. The Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) was emplo yed to organize multiple variables. The analysis established that the study area is characterized by heterogeneous farmers with different levels of response capacity resulting in different forms of responses. The capacity of the farmers to cope and adapt t o changes is varied and chiefly determined by the size of the landholding, education, and age. The diverse responses by farmers help in the adaptive maintenance of agricultural activities in the region. However, these responses, mostly short term coping st rategies, do not improve their resiliency for future shocks. The social system possesses many attributes that may lead to negative transformational trajectories. The current water transfer practice reinforces the suboptimal path that the supplying region i s on, which may ultimately lead to an inadvertent negative transformation of the system creating problems that go beyond the scope of what water supply alone can address. The results indicate that water problems constructed in a rural region by actions of an adjoining city might ultimately be returning to the city at a later stage in the form of hyper urbanization. Thus, if for no other reason than self interest, cities have the responsibility to protect the systems from which their water is extracted. Thr ee scenarios were constructed to show the different trajectories that the supplying rural region might follow. Two normative scenarios, and display that the water transfers can be used as an opportunity to r evisit and improve some long standing issues in the systems. Based on the analysis and results, policy recommendations for rural urban water transfers are presented. The

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vi insights and solutions developed in this study may be extended to other places and dev elopmental activities exhibiting similar characteristics. The form and content of this abstract are approved. I recommend its publication. Approved: Thomas A. Clark

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vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are many people I would like to thank. Without their support and assistance, this PhD would not have been possible. Words cannot express the debt of gratitude I owe my advisor Dr. Thomas A. Clark. He has been an incredible mentor offering guidance, support and encouragement on this long journey I learned many valuable life lessons from him, in addition to learning about planning and conducting research. Thank you for helping me grow as a researcher and as a person. I would like to express my sincere thanks to my dissertation committee chair D r. Deborah Thomas for providing the necessary guidance and support at the times I needed the most help Thanks also to my dissertation committee members Dr. Tanya Heikkila and Dr. Brain Muller for taking time to review my work and for their valuable commen ts. I am extremely grateful to the farmers and the key informants in the study area who have generously shared their experience and insight with me. Without their interest and willingness to help me in every possible way, I would not have been able to gain such a detailed understanding of water issues in the region and how those issues have affected their everyday lives. Moreover, I sincerely hope this research can help in addressing the challenges faced by them in some way. I am also thankful to the variou s organizations in Tamil Nadu for providing the necessary data for this study. I also thank my doctoral colleagues, both current and past, who have provided immense support at various phases of my research. A special thanks to my friend Joe for offering so much support along the way and my friend Mohammed for helping me with the formatting of the dissertation.

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viii I would like to acknowledge the support and love of all my family members. I would like to thank my brother Ramesh, sisters Aghila and Bhanu, and my brothers in law Shankar and Vivekanandan. Without their support, the extensive field work in Chennai and Chidambaram would never have been possible. Lastly, I wish to thank my parents. You have played a pivotal role in shaping who I am today.

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ix TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I. ... .. Introduction to the Research ...1 Background of the R esearch P roblem ... ... ... .. 3 Water Consumption Patterns Global S cenario . The Indian Scenario .. 5 Water T ransfers: Issues, C hall enges and Research Needs 6 Factors S teering W ater T ransfers . 6 Consequences of Water Transfers in India Water T ransfer P lanning C hallenges .. Empirical Studies ............................................................................................. 11 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs .............................................................14 Problem S tatement ... . .. .15 Purpose of the S 16 Research 18 Overview of Literature ... 19 SES: Concepts, Frameworks and Approaches to Analysis System Changes: Disturbances, Responses, and Outcomes Overview o f R esearch D ... 23 Significance and Contribution of the Theoretical Contribution Organization of the D issertation C hapters 28

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x II. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS (SES): CONCEPTS, FRAMEWORKS AND APPLICATIONS 30 3 0 Social Ecological Systems (SES) 3 1 Conceptual Foundations and SES T heory 32 SES Analysis Frameworks 33 Social Ecological Resilience ...3 5 Conceptualization and Definition 3 6 System Dynamics: Adaptive Cycle, Panar chy, and Basin of Attraction . 3 8 Resilience Approaches: Equilibrium and Evolutionary Resilience . 4 2 Attributes of Resilient Systems . .. 4 3 Resilience Assessment, Methods and Application . ... .. 4 4 Limitations 4 5 Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) 4 6 Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) Framework . 4 7 Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) Description . 8 Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) Applications . 5 2 Strength and Limitations 5 Modifications and Innovations 5 6 Social Ecol ogical Resilience: Application in Planning 5 7 Resilience i 5 8 Resilience in Planning Theory 5 9 Resilience and Planning Practice 6 1 Emerging Issues: More Rhetorical Than Practical 4

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xi Water Issues and Social Ecological Systems Approach 5 Water and Human Settlements Planning 6 5 Water Food Energy Nexus 6 7 Water, Society and Ecosystems ...6 8 Conclusion 6 9 III. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND SYSTEM CHANGES, RESPONSES .... .. .......... 71 1 76 Response and Response Capacity 7 8 Adaptive 4 Different A pproaches to S tudy Adaptive Capacity 5 Asset Based Elements 5 Process Based Elements 7 Determinants at Different Scales: Cross S cale I nteractions 2 7 Resilience vs Transformation 8 Planning and Analysis of System C hange 1 F 2 5

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xii IV. 6 Introduction 6 Philosophical Assumption: P ragmatism 7 Case Description 7 The New Veeranam Project Description 108 Conceptual Approach Research Design 3 Case Study R esearch 3 Mixed 4 Data and Methods 11 6 Study Phases and Selection of Subunits .116 Primary Data Collection 8 Survey Design and Construction 8 Key Informant Interviews 2 Secondary D ata Collection 3 Documents 3 Archival Records 5 Limitations to D ata C ollection 6 Data Analysis 6 Analysis of Quantitative D ata 7 Analysis of Qualitative D ata 9 Mixed Method Data Analysis 30 Data Interpretation and Reporting 30

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xi ii Issues of Validity and Reliability 1 Va lidity and Reliability in Case S tudy Research 1 Validity in Mixed M ethod Research 4 Conclusion 5 V. .. . .. 7 Introduction ... .... 7 History of Veeranam T ank 8 Geographical Location System Description 1 First and Second Tier Exogenous Variables ..14 2 Related Ecosystems (ECO) 2 Social, Economic, and Political Settings (S) 5 First and Second T ier System Variables 7 Resource System (RS) 7 Surface Water 7 Actors (A) 0 Governance S ystem (GS) .. 1 Agrarian Society and Its Transformation 15 4 Transformation of the Traditional Rural Agrarian Society and Practices 15 4 SES Disturbance: Description and Characteristics of Water Transfer Project ...... 7 The City of Chennai 8 Description and Characteristics of Water Transfer Project 59 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) 3

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xiv Lacuna in Implementation and O peration 4 Water Flow Analysis 4 Disturbance C haracteristics 7 68 VI. SOCIAL SYSTEM RESPONSES AND ...1 69 Introduction ........................ 69 1 Socio E conomic P rofile 1 Social Capital 79 Resource Dependency 5 Perception of W ater I ssues 89 Perception of Impact and Water Availability 2 Association between F C haracteristics 6 Individual and Community Responses 0 Responses t o Water Transfer Project 0 Individual Response to Changes in Water Availability 2 Community Response to C hanges in Water Availability 08 Future P lans 3 Characteristics 4 Discussion 18 Characteristics of Responses Space 19 Farmer Types and 2 Intra and Cross Scale Dynamics . 2 7

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xv Current and Future Social System Characteristics . 2 28 Testing Theoretical Propositions . 23 0 .. .. 2 3 4 VII. SYSTEM CHANGES AND 3 5 5 The New Veeranam Project 7 Significant Features of the Receiving and Sending Region 7 Analysis of System Changes as Outcomes 39 Changes in System Characteristics 0 Intra system Dynamics: Interaction between System C omponents 5 Changes in the Resource S ystem 6 Interaction between the Actors and the Res ource S ystem 7 Interaction between Actors, Resources and Institutions 2 Inter system Dynamics: Rural U rban Interaction 7 Scenario Building: Path to the Desired Future 59 Scenario I Continuation of the Current T rend 1 Scenario II Regional Resilience 5 Scenario III Regional Transformation 7 Discussion 69 Policy Implications 1 Policy Recommendations 2 Limitations of the S tudy 5 Suggestions for Future R esearch 7

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xvi 78 REFERENCES 6 5 A. 5 B. C. Documents, Pamphlets, and News Articles 4 D. 41

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xvii LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1.1 Admi nistrative Water Transfer Case S tudy Findings ............ ... .. ..... .. ...... .. .... .. ... ........ 13 2.1 Second T ier Variables of a Social Ecological S ystem ........ ............ ... ............ . ..... .. ... 5 1 2.2 SES Dynamics and Determinants: Empirical studies .. 3 2. 3 Alternative List of Second Tier Properties f or Governance Systems . 56 4.1 Lower Tier Variables Measured Through Survey . ... 9 4.2 Sample Size: Disproportionate Stratified Sampling ... . 1 5.1 First and Second Tier V ariables . . 1 6.1 Socio economic Profile Descriptive Statistics I ... .. .. . 2 6.2 Socio economic Profile Descriptive Statistics II .. .. 5 6.3 Socio economic Profile Descriptive Statistics II I .. ... 6 6.4 .. . 0 6.5 . 2 6. 6 Re ..... . 8 7 6.7 .. 0 6.8 Percept 2 6.9 . 2 6.10 .. 198 6.11 .. 1 6. 12 .. 2 6.13 . 3 6.14 .. 21 2

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xviii ... 2 6.1 6 Results of Chi square Test for Agriculture R esponse b .. ... .. .21 5 6.1 7 Results of Chi sq uare Test for Non Agricultural R esponse by Age .. 6 3 7.2 Propositions, Evidence and Conclusions 3

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xix LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1 A d a p t i ve C y c l e and P a n a rc h . 39 2.2 Shift towards another S t a b ili t y D o m a i n . 4 1 2.3 A Framework for Institutional Analysis .. .. 8 2 .4 Revised Social Ecological System F ramework (SES F) .. 4.1 Conceptualization of Water Transfer Process and Focus of this S tudy 10 4.2 Focal Variables in this S tudy .. 2 4.3 Embedded Units of Analysis within the Main Case .. 4 4.4 Mixed Method Research: Convergent Parallel Design . 5 4.5 Relationship between A ttributes (V ariables) . .. 12 8 5.1 Veeranam Tank (full and dry) .139 5.3 Rainfall and Drought Years in the Study A rea (Kattumannar Koil Station) .. .14 3 5.4 Veeranam Tank and Cauvery River System .. 4 5.5 Veeranam Tank and its Command Area .. 8 5.6 Irrigation C anals 1 49 5.7 Irrigation C anals and F ields . 15 0 5. 8 Chennai Location and the New Veernama Project .. 59 5. 9 Precast Concrete Pipes Serving as S helters for the H omeless .. 0 5.10 Inflow into the Veeranam Tank .. 5 5.11 Flow in Irrigation and Metro Canals C ropping season (Aug Jan) 6 5.12 Flow in Irrigation and Metro Canals N on cropping season (Feb July) 6

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xx 6.1 Farm S ize and Education L evel .. 3 6. 2 Resource Dependency Scores . 1 88 6.3 Hunger Strike and Protest by Farmers in 2012 .. 2 6.4 Agricultural Land C onverted to Residential L and U se in Tail E nd Villages .. 6 6.5 Collective Action: Rainwater Harvesting and Canal M aintenance .. . 0 6. 6 Response T ypes Vs Farmers ... 1 7 7.1 Land Use Changes 24 0 7.2 Workforce Composition Main and Marginal Workers 1 7.3 Workforce Composition in a Tail End Village: Vadamur 2 7.4 Workforce Composition in a Head Reach Village: Kulapaddi 3

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1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Introduction to the Research Worldwide, water issues are becoming increasingly critical due to population growth and rapid urbanization. put forth by Gleick and Palaniappan (2010) extends the theory of peak resource production to water resources to highlight the limits of freshwater withdrawal and calls for immediate attention to the emerging constraints on regional water resources. It is considered that limited water supplies are and will be the number one issue facing numerous communities in the 21st century (Montaigne, 2002). It has been widely predicted that the next world war could be sparked by water disputes. In contrast to ea rlier wars, contemporary water wars that are taking shape are not between countries but between different sectors in a country. They are over institutional issues of sharing and ownership. Water use conflicts between sectors within a region, especially bet ween agriculture and urban municipal and industrial sectors, are a reality. Although fundamental to human welfare, water related issues mostly remain ignored within the domain and processes of planning. With the increasing demand for water and the resultin g conflicts, inclusion of water needs and addressing associated issues in human settlement planning becomes compelling. Though the planning profession has much to offer in addressing the challenges for planning for water, until recently planners have not focused on water related matters, such as the development and implementation of

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2 water policy, and meeting the water needs of communities (Page & Susskind, 2007). Only in recent years, planning professionals and researchers have begun to pay attention to t he challenges of planning for water. In line with this stance, this research focuses on one such issue associated with the provision of water for the growing urban population in a water scarce region in India i.e. rural urban water transfers. When cities in developing countries, particularly in India, swell beyond their natural water capacities, they frequently appropriate water from distant and largely rural supplies originally purposed for irrigation to meet their growing demand for water. When water i s in short supply relative to demand in water supplying regions, rural urban water transfers have multiple consequences both direct and secondary in the water supplying rural regions. Due to unequal bargaining powers enjoyed by urban agencies in developi ng countries, such rural urban water transfers often favor the urban areas (Janakarajan, 2007). Ideally, planning and implementation of such water transfers should be carried out with the understanding of the trade offs involved, as there is economic, soci al and environmental interdependence between urban and rural areas. To develop a balanced approach to rural urban water transfers, water supplying the critical impacts they generate need to be more thoroughly understood. However, the processes and critical impacts of rural urban water transfer are not well researched or understood (Celio et al., 2010). To gain this knowledge, responses of a rural supplying region to water transfer are analyzed in a s elected single case in India. The issues related to water transfers necessitate an approach to analysis that brings together many interrelated social and ecological variables and their interactions. Thus, this research adopts a complex Social Ecological Systems (SES)

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3 approach. The specific case of water transfers from longstanding agricultural uses to the rapidly growing city of Chennai in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu forms the empirical foundation for this analysis. This chapter begins with bac kground information on water issues and urbanization as well as the need and issues associated with rural urban water transfers. Then the gap in the literature, problems that this study addresses, purpose of the study, significance and contribution of the study, and research questions are presented. This is followed by an overview of the research design and literature review. Finally, an overview of the thesis structure is provided. Background of the Research P roblem To provide background and highlight the significance of this study, water consumption patterns, and projected future water demand, both at a global and national level in India, are presented in the following section. Factors leading to water transfers and arguments supporting and opposing wate r transfers are discussed next. Then the characteristics of water transfers and its impact, empirical studies on water transfers and the gap in the literature are discussed. Water C onsumpti on P atterns Global S cenario The global water footprint is 7450 Gm 3 /yr, which is 1240 m 3 /cap/yr o n average ( Hoekstra & Chapagain 2007 ). The demand for water originates from agricultural, industrial, commercial and domestic needs. Water is also critical for maintaining ecosystem services. However, most available database s on water consumption patterns group the use into three broad categories: Agriculture, Industrial including energy generation and Domestic. According to the World Water Assessment Progr amme (WWAP) report (2012)

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4 a the industrial sector and 10% by the domestic sector. The a gricultural sector has a large water footprint compared to other sectors ; the a griculture sector alone accounts for 70% of all wat er withdrawn globally. Water used by different sectors var ies between regions and countries. For instance, the percentage of industrial sector water demands is only about 5% of water withdrawals in developing countries, compared to over 40% in some deve loped countries (WWAP, 2012). Similarly, agriculture accounts for more than 90% of water withdrawals in many developing countries, whereas less than 40% is utilized by the agriculture sector in many developed countries (WWAP, 2012). Projected water demand. The world population is expected to increase from 6.8 billion in 2009 to 9.1 billion in 2050 (UNDESA, 2009) It is anticipated that the urban areas of the world w ill absorb all of this population growth. Such population growth and rapid urbanization will create greater demand for water, particularly in industrial and domestic sectors. Water demand is projected to increase by 55% globally between 2000 and 2050 (OECD, 2012). The domestic use of water is expected to increase by 1.3 times and the industria l use including energy generation is e xpected to increase by 5.5 times. With th is population growth, the global demand for food is expected to increase by 70% ; hence more water will be needed to meet increasing demands for food as well. Water data at t he global scale does not provide a clear picture of water issues at the local scale. Uneven geographic distribution of water and urban concentration of water demand add a highly localized dimension to broader global water trends. Therefore, the

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5 water scena rio of India from where the case for detailed analysis for this study is chosen, is presented below. The Indian Scenario India is the second most populated country in the world with over 1.2 billion people (Census of India, 2011). India, with 17% of the total area has only 4% of the total available fresh w ater (NIH, 2010; UNICEF, FAO & SaciWATERs, 2013). Sector wise consumption. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations agricult ure accounted for 90.5% of total water withdrawal in 2010 in India (Aquastat, n.d.). Municipal and Industrial use accounted for 7.5% and 2% respectively. Though the current demand for water is mainly from agriculture, the future demand is expected to cha nge considerably from the current consumption patterns. According to water demand projections by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the total water demand will increase from 680 Bm 3 in 2000 to 833 Bm 3 by 2025 and to 900 Bm 3 by 2050 (Amara singhe et al., 2007). The industrial and domestic sectors will account for 54% and 85% of the additional demand by 2025 and 2050, respectively. Localized scarcity. The chief challenge of meeting water demand in India is regional disparity caused by the uneven geographical and temporal distribution of water. 71 % of India's water resources are available to only 36 % of the area while the remaining 64 % has 29 % availa ble (WHO & UNICEF, 2010; Verma & Phansalkar, 2007). Less water is available in places where more people live and much of the food is grown. Temporally India, as a monsoon dependent country, receives 50% of its rainfall in 15 days and 90% of the flows happ en in just 4 months (Nayar, 2013). Thus, an important point to be considered

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6 in planning is not only the volume of water used, but also where and when the water is available and used. Water T ransfers: Issues, Challenges and Research N eeds Factors Steering Water Transfers The statistics presented above show that domestic and industrial water demands are still several times smaller than the demands of irrigated agriculture. However, 90% of the freshwater withdrawals are already committed to irrigated agricult ure. Thus, in regions with limited water supply and been reached, some of the increase in non irrigation demand i.e. industrial and domestic demand, will be at a direct cost to the irrigation sector. Studies on the water situation in India are cautioning that India is already at the threshold of overdevelopment of water resources (Narasimhan, 2008). This focus will be on reallocating water from one existing use to another (Gleick & Palaniappan, 2010). These aspects indicate that the growing water demand for urban domestic, and industrial activities in India will be met by tapping water already used by irr expected to decrease. Arguments for and against water transfer. Water transfers are justified on the basis of more efficient use of water. Farmers are often seen as getting a dispropor tionate share of water and wasting water by proponents of water transfers. They emphasize that 60% of agricultural water deliveries fail to reach the fields (Gleick, 2001). They believe that transferring a small percent of agricultural water to urban areas would solve all urban needs. However, opponents of water transfers counter this rationale by highlighting the

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7 following two facts: (1) much of irrigation use occurs at times and places where water has no alternative use, and (2) water losses to drainage a nd deep percolation in canals and fields are very often reused by other users further downstream or through groundwater use (Molle & Berkoff, 2009). They argue that mostly short term economic gains play a major role in shaping water transfers, ignoring the broader political economy and environment. They claim that in this process urban local supply demand imbalances are transferred to the regional scale. W ater transfer mechanisms. Irrespective of these arguments, water transfers from rural agriculture use to urban use are taking place through a variety of mechanisms in India. Characteristics of water transfer in a specific location are dependent upon a wide variety of physical, eco nomic, social, and political factor s (Levine, 2007). The nature of water transfer mechanisms influences the outcomes of water transfer. Water transfers can be categorized in terms of the nature of the transaction, such as water market, quasi water market, and transfer by Administrative decision or fiat, and by their time duration, such as long term, intermediate, and short term (Refer to Appendix D Supplementary Information ). Whatever type of transaction is involved, when irrigation water is transferred, t here are controversies involving political, social and economic issues (Matthews, 2010). Consequen ces o f Water Transfers in India Water transfer by administrative decision is a predominant method of water transfer in many countries, particularly in India. In this method of water transfer, urban interests, often overriding rural concerns (Celio et al., 2010). Transfer by the

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8 administrative decision mechanism is oft en controversial and create s competition and conflicts among various water uses. When water is in short supply relative to demand in water supplying regions, such rel e conomic capacities shift; l and use patterns change; e cosystems are put in limbo. Similar to natural hazards like drought, water transfer impacts might affect disadvantaged social groups and the environm ent more disproportionately. But, unlike a natural hazard, this may operate as a slow process disturbing the human environment systems gradually but continuously. An underlying problem is that the benefits and costs associated with water transfers are usu ally not readily observable and the costs and benefits are mostly distributed unevenly across society (Janakarajan, 2007; Meinzen Dick & Appasamy, 2002). An overview of impacts of water transfer by administrative decisions on supplying rural regions is pr ovided below. Agricultural productivity and social equity. Transferring water out of agriculture can have impacts on a wide range of stakeholders. It can have negative effects on rural employment in the agricultural sector and on all agriculturally relate d activities through multiplier effects Under the ideal conditions of full employment and perfect mobility, people may shift from activities that are extremely water dependent (Meinzen Dick & Appasamy, 2002). However, in developing countries poor people are often characterized by lack of mobility, skills, and economic alternatives. Shifting water away from those who are already relatively disadvantaged has clear implication s for equity and social stability. Declining agricultural activity cha llenges food self sufficiency as well.

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9 Other third party impacts. Beyond the assumed users there are a variety of often disregarded users who derive both direct and indirect benefits and who may be impacted by decisions on reallocation (Meinzen Dick & Ap pasamy, 2002). For instance, when the drinking water supply in rural areas is connected with irrigation systems, water transfers ies Environmental issues. Excessive water consumption often asso ciated with water transfers leads to environmental flow depletion. This may lead to environmental deterioration. This can include, depending on the characteristics of the eco system, aquifer depletion, land subsidence, salinity intrusion in coastal aquifer s, loss of habitats and disappearing wetlands. When water transfers lead to conversion of agricultural land to other uses or move land out of intensive agricultural use, other environmental benefits provided by agricultural land are also lost. Such benefits include wildlife habitat and fodder, groundwa ter recharge and floodwater control. Cumulative effects Due to rural urban linkages, impacts on the water supplying region form a vicious cycle. Declining agricultural activities and ecological and environmental degradation compel people to migrate to cities. This often leads to the growth of slums and pollutio n which in turn results in stress on urban infrastructure, creating serious problems for drinking water and sanitation. In order to cope with this pressure, cities expand in an unplanned manner, and this process goes on indefinitely (Janakarajan, 2007). T his means that a problem constructed in another region by a city will ultimately be returning to the city at a later point in time

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10 Water Transfer Planning Challenges The i ssues discussed in the previous section emphasize that reallocation of water among various sectors requires careful examination of economic, social, and environmental issues, in addition to meeting any particular demand. However, issues vary from context to context. Ideally planning should be carried out with an understanding of trade o ffs involved in the specific context. The following challenges to the water transfer planning process are highlighted in the literature. Coordinating many groups with unequal power. Unlike traditional supply and demand management, which can typically be accomplished by a single water agency, water transfer require s coordinated planning operations between many groups that are involved in the use and management of water. Cities are represented in many cases by a government agency and enjoy great bargaining power (Sridharan, 2008), whereas the rural areas of origin are poorly organized for represent ing their own interests. Due to the difficulties in coordinating diverse stakeholders, irrespective of what economic, social and D ifficulty in foreseeing and including impacts. One of the major problems with any form of water transfer is the uncertainty that results from the proposed transfers (Matthews, 2010). There are unknown and under studied ecological, social, and cumulative im pacts in areas from which water is transferred (Wiener et al., 2008). Thus, arriving at a comprehensive set of criteria to consider in planning and implementin g water

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11 transfer projects that considers primary and secondary impacts on the basin of origin, is difficult. Absence of clear policy guidelines In many countries mechanisms to resolve inter state disputes have been well developed and in place. However, there are not well developed guidelines to deal with emerging disputes between different user gro ups e.g. industry versus agriculture or human needs versus environment (Chawla, 2012). Empirical Studies Issues related to water transfer are of interest to economist s agricultural economists, natural resource managers, and water resources managers. Water transfer can be analyzed from different perspective s and the impact of water transfers can be quantified in various ways according to the specific aspects one is concerned with (Ceilio et al 2010). Though these issues are extremely important, wate r transfers have been researched primarily from an economic perspective. Most of the studies (Ruet, 2007; Palanisami 1994) have concentrated on the economic impacts at the household level. Some studies (Meinzen Dick & Ringler, 2008; Ceilio et al 2010) highlight the potentially adverse consequences of water transfer for equity, environmental sustainability, and the livelihoods of the rural poor in developing countries. Geographers have marginally addressed the impacts of water capture on pre existing use s and these limited inquiries from various fields present contrasting results (Ceilio et al 2010). Some studies report negative impacts (Hearne, 1998; Dixon et al. 1993). Conversely, certain other studies conducted in Mexico, India and China present positive impacts, particularly economic (Rosegrant & Gazmuri Schleyer, 1994; Palanisami, 1994; Thobani, 1998). While observing such contrasting

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12 results, Celio et al. (2010) note d that the processes and critical impacts of urban water capture and appropriation are not well researched or understood. There are quite limited numbers of case studies available on local level impacts on the water supplying region. These studies carried o ut in India, Japan, Mexico, China, and Nepal clearly show the complexities of water transfers. (Refer to Table 1.1 Summary of Water Transfer Case Study Findings ) While all the case studies agree that water transactions are beneficial to urban areas, they report both positive and negative consequences in the supplying region. Case studies in Japan and China describe positive changes in the supplying region, such as water efficiency gain. Rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure in the supplying region by cities as an indirect compensation mechanism is documented in Japan. Also, adaptive water supply augmentation by individual farmers, such as pond constructions to harvest rain water in China has been reported. S tudies on water transfers in India, and Mex ico observe seasonal changes in crop production ; h owever, they attribute the changes in water availability and agricultural productivity to the distribution and intensity of the precipitation during the rainy season and call for water transfer mechanisms t hat explicitly account for resource variability. They note the exploitation of ground water as an adaptive mechanism by farmers. However, possible long term environmental consequences of such adaptive mechanisms have n ot been studied. They also highlight t he need for a more transparent transfer process that includes all stakeholders and considers local customary practices.

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13

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14 While all the studies acknowledge the unpredictability of impacts, they stress the need to study water transfers from a broader perspective that includes long term environmental impacts and explore the role of user groups in promoting water saving activities and other adaptation strategies. Knowledge G aps and Research N eeds The review of the literature on water transfer from differ ent fields point s out the following four research needs: 1. Studies on inter sectoral water transfers have been carried out mostly in the western context. Though irrigation water allocations are increasingly taking place in the surroundings of rapidly exp anding cities in Asian countries, they have received very little attention and have not been sufficiently documented (Matsuno et al., 2007). Systematic studies on water transfers from developing countries are missing (Molle & Berkoff, 2009). But the proces ses and critical impacts of urban water capture and appropriation are not well researched or understood (Celio et al., 2010). 2. In developed western nations, formal regulated transfer mechanisms are practiced. Most discussions and evaluation of water tra nsfers in the west have focused on technical and economic efficiency (Meinzen Dick et al., 2005). The experiences of the west raise some critical issues, but may not provide appropriate indicators of what happens as a result of inter sectoral water transfe rs in developing countries (Molden, 2007). The range of arrangements and outcomes in these contexts indicates that it is important to go beyond the conventional approaches to analysis that only look at economic efficiency or water productivity.

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15 3. The lim ited number of case studies carried out in the contexts of developing countries describes the range of forces that initiate the transfer process and determine its final nature. They are largely factual rather than analytical (Matsuno et al., 2007). Though some studies attempt to explain how farming communities are able to cope with the situation, their adaptation and feedback mechanisms are not well documented and analyzed (Molden, 2007). Also, they do not focus on what factors help t hem respond, such as the role of water user associations, farmer groups or flexibility of institutions, in these processes (Loeve, 2007). 4. Another important issue that has not been studied is the long term environmental changes. Though certain impacts s uch as accelerated drying up of ground water resources are noted, environmental sustainability of such water transfer practices are not included in the analysis. Problem Statement Past empirical inquiries regarding the impact of water transfers on preexis ting uses in water supplying regions present contrasting results. Reasons for this could be that these studies focus on just a few variables and employ simplified models (i.e., A causes B) and attempt to study the relationship between changes in water inpu ts to agricultural productivity or farming community income or water efficiency. Intervening or modifying mechanisms are generally ignored in these models. They fail to consider the variable characteristics of water supplying regions and the diverse respon se capacities of water user communities (Celio et al., 2010). It is essential to include the above factors in the analysis, as the magnitude and distribution of water transfer impacts are a reflection of social and ecosystem capacities to

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16 cope and adapt a s well as the interactions between them. The m agnitude and directions of the impacts also depend on the way water transfers are implemented, the way the supplying region responds to changes in water availability and the kind of management mechanisms govern ments put in place to assist farmers managing this transition. Leaving out these factors that contribute to the observed outcome, such as the implementation mechanism, characteristics of the water supplying region and response capacities of preexisting wat er users, these existing studies do not accurately reflect the causal contribution of the water transfer in the selected variable (Celio et al., 2010) and do not provide the explanatory knowledge that decision makers desire or need. Intervening mechanisms an emergent phenomenon. The p resence of such emergent properties and recursive feedback loops makes the system complex. Thus, applying simple linear model for evaluation of an intervention in a complex adaptive system provid es less useful information for improving the planning practice or for policy development. This necessitate s an approach to water transfer analysis that brings together many interrelated variables and their interactions and synthesize s their complex dynamics of change. However, review of the literature indicates that rural urban water transfers are not researched from this perspective. Purpose of the Study This research fills the gap in the existing literature by taking a case study app roach to review rural urban water transfer decision practices and analyze the trajectories of social, economic, and environmental changes brought about by the water transfer project in the supplying region in a selected case. Specifically, this research an alyzes how people and nature organize around change by focusing on the individual and societal responses that

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17 rural urban water transfers induce and the social, institutional and ecological feedback effects they provoke. In order to carry out such an anal ysis, this study adopts a framework that links both social and ecological elements i.e. Social Ecological Systems (SES) and focuses on the adaptive capacity of the social systems. Thus, this research sets out to accomplish the following three primary obj ectives : 1. Identify and categorize diverse individual and community responses to water transfer and examine the social and ecological factors and processes that influence and shape responses to water transfer 2. Examine the changes in social and ecological system characteristics after water transfer, specifically changes in socio economic characteristics, agricultural productivity and water availability 3. D evelop multiple plausible future scenarios and planning recommendations for the study re gion and water transfer process using scenario development as an To achieve the above objectives, this study employs a mixed method single embedded case study analysis. This approach offers a holistic understanding of the phe nomenon under investigation and facilitates exploration of a phenomenon within its context using a variety of data sources (Creswell, 2007; Yin, 2014). Water appropriation by the city of Chennai, India from Veeranam Lake through the Chennai Water Augmenta tion Project I, also known as New Veeranam Project, was chosen for the detailed analysis.

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18 Research Questions Over arching questions and more specific questions that derive from the broader themes are listed below. Propositions, which are linked to a spe cific research question, identified from the literature are also given. The overarching research questions guiding this research are: How do the Social and Ecological Systems in the water supplying region respond to the consequences of current water tran sfer practices in India? What are the implications of these for water transfer policy and planning decisions? Specific questions are: 1. How do the water users in the supplying region respond to consequences of rural urban water transfer? 2. What factors and processes in the system mediate and shape the SES responses and changes? 3. What are the resultant changes in the characteristics of both social and ecological systems? 4. What are the future plausible scenarios for the study region, given the water users responses and system changes? 5. What are the implications of the above findings for water transfer policy and planning decisions? Preliminary proposition s that can help in framing the analysis for question two are: Individual capacity to respond to chang es is influenced by attributes and perceptions of the farmers.

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19 Behavior and emotional response of resource users to change are significantly influenced by the perception of an event, project or policy. hanges in the rules that govern their access to water resources is determined by their ability to cope with and adapt to changes. The diversity of responses to changing circumstance s within components of a system have implications for the functioning and resilience of that system. Overview of Literature Review This study aims to understand an empirical phenomenon i.e. rural urban water transfer. Most of the challenges associated with rural urban water transfers are not solely determined by societal structures or by purely environmental factors. As a result, the question of finding an appropriate theoretical approach that could help to explain the complex nature of social and ecological responses and interactions is not easy to answer. There are two challenges to this. First, the theoretical approach should help in the understanding of a complex phenomenon. Second, it should shed light on the interaction between social and ecological system s at multiple scales an d time frame s Thus, the research demands a guiding concept that would help in understanding the coupled human and natural system and the analysis of its components. s the integrated concept of h umans in nature and recognize s that the delineation between social and ecological systems is artificial and arbitrary (Berkes & Folke, 1998). The SES analysis methods recognize the links and interactions among actors and ecosystems within a particular soci al, institutional and biophysical environment (Berkes & Folke, 1998).

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20 Adapting the SES approach and recognizing places as complex, interconnected socio spatial systems with extensive and unpredictable feedback processes operating at multiple scales and tim eframes helps to bring intricate system issues into the planning process (Davoudi, 2012). Thus, conceptualizing the study region as linked or coupled social ecological systems and carrying out an integrated analysis of both the social subsystem and the ecological subsystem will help in creating a better understanding of the consequences of water transfers in the system, key social and ecological variables that determine the status of a system, and connectivity of issues across scales. With these cons iderations, literature on the conceptualization of SES, diverse SES analysis frameworks, and its application to planning practice are reviewed. In consideration of the various fields over which SES concepts span, the literature review is split into two cha pters. Basic concepts elated to two analysis frameworks, namely the SES analysis framework (Ostrom, 2007 ; 2009) and Resilience are discussed in Chapter 2. SES changes and evolve s in response to disturbances or stressor s Therefore, after establishing t he basic concepts in chapter two, three essential element s of the process of system change are discussed in Chapter 3. The three essential elements are: Disturbances, responses and outcomes. Brief summaries of each are provided below to add context to the summary of the research design that follows. SES: Concepts, Frameworks and Approaches t o Analysis Due to the level of complexity involved in the coupled social ecological systems, a full blown theory of social ecological systems has not yet been developed and may never be developed (Anderies et al., 2006; Cumming, 2011). The existing studies on SES explain some aspects of the aggregate behavior of SESs, such as resilience, vulnerability,

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21 adaptation, and robustness. Recognizing the potential of l inking social and ecological systems, both the social and ecological fields are trying to integrate their primarily ecological or social framework into a broader framework that includes both social and ecological systems. Such concepts and analysis methods that pay specific attention to linked social ecological systems, specifically the Social Ecological Systems (SES) framework by Ostrom (2007, 2009) and Social Ecological Resilience are reviewed. SES framework. The SES analysis framework is developed to harness complexity in SESs and reflect the hierarchical qualities of complex social ecological systems (Ostrom, 2007, 2009). In the SES analysis framework, a large number of factors or variables, which have been identified as being potentially relevant t o the dynamic patterns of interaction between human groups and their environment, are arranged in nested tiers (McGinnis, 2011). Generic categories are used in the framework so that it is applicable to diverse resource sectors, geophysical regions, politic al entities, and cultural traditions. The SES framework provides a broad range of possible influential variables. When empirical situations are complex, applying a framework, such as the SES framework, aids the structuring of the study and provides the ab ility to cope with empirically observable complexity and relate to pertinent theoretical concepts (Schlter, 2012). However, it does not explain the relationships between the various components of the system. Application of the SES framework to an empirica l situation ensures, to a large extent, that no aspect that could have influenced the SES and the processes could be omitted. Thus, the framework, its application in SES analysis and its limitations are reviewed.

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22 Resilience. capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re organize while undergoing changes so as to still retain essentially the same function, approach, many organizing ideas and concepts have been proposed for understanding and analyzing social ecological systems, such as stability domain, basin of attraction, adaptive cycle, panarchy etc. These concepts are re defined constantly and new ideas, insights, and concepts keep evolving. System attributes that play important roles in the dynamics of SESs is the main focus of resilience research. These concepts have been applied in the analysis of SES to identify drivers of change and system responses to changes, to examine the past, present and future trends of SES and to suggest points of intervention for enhancing resilience. Thus, foundational concepts in the resilience research, its application in the SES analysis and critique of the resilience approach are discussed in the literature review. System Changes: Disturbances, Responses, and Outcomes SESs are dynamic and are constantly encountering surprises. A system can change and evolve over time in response to disturbances. Such outcomes are coproduced by disturbances a nd system attributes. Accordingly, there are three important components to system change analysis: the nature of disturbances; system responses and the factors and process that determine and mobilize the ability of the system to respond; and outcomes such as the persistence, transition or transformation of the system. In the process of system change, knowledge of system properties that enable the SES, particularly social systems, to respond is essential in order to manage the dynamics of chan ge in the system. Literature on this property of the system i.e. the adaptive capacity

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23 of the system is reviewed in detail. The a daptive capacity of a system is determined by a wide variety of its social, economic, political characteristics. Adaptive ca pacity determines how people can make changes to their system, but the determinants of adaptive capacity are context specific. The concept of adaptive capacity is employed in both the system oriented resilience approach and actor oriented Vulnerability fra meworks (Engle, 2011). In order to understand the system changes all three elements need to be included in the analysis. Therefore typology of disturbances, factors and processes influencing system responses i.e. determinants of its adaptive capacity, a nd possible outcomes are discussed in chapter three. A comprehensive review of the determinants of adaptive capacity is presented to provide a theoretical understanding of the variables and processes that mobilize the adaptive capacity. A critique on adapt ive capacity, its various components, and its use within system change studies are presented. Finally, a discussion on the proposed value of adaptive capacity as a heuristic device and its potential for examining the social responses, interactions and syst em changes is presented. Overview of Research Design To address a diverse range of issues associated with the conflicting demands of water, urbanization and agriculture and to achieve depth and breadth in the analysis, a mixed method single case study des ign with embedded units of analysis is employed. Case study inquiry is found to be suitable for this research because water transfer and community responses are complex phenomena that occur within particular contexts and settings. The s ingle case study method allows a detailed examination of the selected case to explore and unravel such complexities. A single embedded case study design ha s been selected because the embedded units provide insights into the single case. The two

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24 embedded un its in this research are villages in the supplying region and water users i.e. farmers. Mixed method research design allows the researcher to view the problem in multiple ways (Creswell, 2014). A combination of quantitative and qualitative data analysis m ethods facilitates a complete analysis and enhance s understanding of the selected case. Thus mixed method research design is employed and b oth qualitative and quantitative primary data have been collected for this research. A survey of farmers and semi s tructured interviews with key informants in the region have been conducted. The survey respondents consist of long term water users in the supplying region. Secondary data include quantitative archival records and qualitative documentations. The selected case for this study, the Chennai Water Supply Augmentation Project I, is located in the state of Tamil Nadu, India. This project, commonly known as the New Veeranam Project, was commissioned to supply water to Chennai city, the capital of the state, from the Veeranam Tank and was implemented in the year 2004. The Veeranam Tank is located at a distance of 230 km from Chennai. It was constructed in the 11th century and surface water from the Veeranam tank was primarily used for irrigation for many centuries. As an irrigation tank it irrigates an area of 18,152 hectares or 44, 856 acres. The total number of villages that benefit from the irrigation system of the Veeranam Tank is 128. The water is distributed to the fields through canals from 28 slui ces located along the eastern bund. Paddy is the major crop grown in the study region. Before the main study phase, an exploratory study was carried out in January and February of 2013 to gain a basic understanding of the chosen social ecological system, and to identify the main focus of the study. Based on the exploratory study, the survey

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25 instrument and semi structured interview schedules were developed. In depth interviews with 15 key informants and survey s of 166 farmers were carried out during July a nd August, 2013. To cover the diverse range of embedded units of analysis in my study i.e. the farmers and villages, two major canals, one on the northern part of the command area and the other on the southern part were selected. Farmers practicing agric ulture in the villages along these selected canals were included in the survey. To include different categories of farmers in the sample selection, stratified sampling method was employed. Limitations. Despite the best efforts to address various issues tha t arose in the research process, th is research has several limitations. These predominantly relate to the lack of disaggregate secondary data, non availability of water board officials to share information, segregation and precise measurement of the impact s of water transfer alone o n the system, and the resultant system changes. These limitations are addressed by the mixed method research design and triangulation of data sources. Various limitations of this research are discussed in detail in the conclusion chapter. Significance and Contribution of the S tudy This research primarily contributes to improving the water transfer planning process or other developmental activities that result in changes in resource availability. Additionally, it adds to the body of literature on the dynamics of social ecological systems and individual and community adaptive capacity. The effects of rural urban water transfers continue to unfold as more water transfer projects are implemented to meet the needs of growing cities. In most cases, they result in unequal distribution of benefits and burden s (Butterworth et al., 2007; Meinzen Dick & Appasamy, 2002), since the processes and critical impacts of water transfer are not well

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26 understood (Celio et al. 2010). This research provid es a comprehensive understanding of the processes from a complex adaptive system, specifically the social ecological system, perspective. Thus, the outcome of this research can inform water transfer polices and planning and help develop a mutually supporti ve and balanced approach to water transfer planning. This is essential because economic, social, and environmental interdependence exist between urban and rural areas. The significance and need for such studies are emphasized in many studies carried out b y organizations such as UN water and the WWF (Engel et al 2011; WWDR 4, 2012). Observing that the current approaches to urban water assessment mostly focus on direct water consumption and do not consider a s, many studies stress the need for more far reaching approach es to water planning and management and urban development. These studies recognize the key challenges in this task as integrating the complex interconnections into response strategies that take into account the various trade offs and the interests of different stakeholders. However, much of the existing research on rural urban water transfers do es not recognize the complex interconnections and focus es on few variables. By adapting the SES appr oach and focusing on adaptive capacity in the analysis, th ese research findings inform future water policy and practice to ensure fairer, more reasonable, and more sustainable outcomes in water transfer projects not only in India, but in other water scarce regions in other countries as well. Many rural urban water transfers taking place in the developing world exhibit characteristics similar to this case, suggesting that the insights and solutions developed in this study may be extended to other places.

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27 Re search that documents different pathways of responses to change, such as this, is of high value not only for the creation of effective water transfer policy, but also for other resource allocation policies. For instance, with the knowledge of how the perce ption of actors influences their responses, the planning processes can be optimized and incorporate measures to positively influence the perception of resource users. Thus, the research findings can be generalized to the G l obal S outh and the methodology ca n be adopted for different kinds of developmental projects. Theoretical Contribution This research examines how a complex configuration of geophysical characteristics of watersheds, attributes and perception s of local resource users and their location within the watershed, and community characteristics affect response measures to water transfer and consequently system changes. This study draws upon both qualitative and quantitative data derived from field ob servations, survey s and key informant interviews. By investigat ing factors that influence the selection of response options by individuals and communities, this research provides insight into the factors that account for variability in responses in the su pplying region and the relationship between responses and system changes. Thus, this research adds to the body of literature that focuses on the dynamics of Social Ecological Systems and their responses to crisis, changes, stresses, disturbances and surpri ses. Moreover, by focusing on individuals responses in the selected case and employing adaptive capacity as a heuristic device, this study contributes to the theoretical understanding of individual adaptive capacity. Though individual responses to change s in

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28 policy and resource availability are important in driving and understanding SES dynamics at higher scales, research at the individual level is not often undertaken (Marshall, et al 2007). Focus on individual adaptive capacity also increases the gen eral applicability of results to other social ecological systems (Smith et al., 2003). In addition to the above contributions, this research provides a practical contribution to the communities in the Veeranam command area by identifying future challenges and opportunities for the region and projecting plausible future scenarios. Recommendations proposed in this research, both at a community and regional level, can assist with future rural planning initiatives of the region, as well as water transfer plann ing. Organization of the Dissertation C hapters In chapter 2 and 3, literature that relates to the research questions is reviewed in detail. Basic concepts related to SES analysis, namely the SES analysis framework and Resilience are discussed in c hapter two. SES changes and outcomes are coproduced by disturbances and system attributes. Therefore, three essential element s of the process of system change, specifically disturbances, factors and processes influencing system responses i.e. its adaptive capac ity, and possible outcomes are discussed in chapter three. Chapter 4 presents the methodology, research design and analysis process, and chapter 5 provides background information on the selected case setting the stage for the presentation of the research f indings in the following chapters. characteristics and their responses to water transfer. In addition, by analyzing the factors and processes that shape the responses, the propositions related to individual and community adaptations are discussed.

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29 Chapter 7 discusses the changes in the system characteristics and modifications in the interaction between various components of the system particularly the critical nexus between land use, water, food production, and human activity. Further more drawing upon the research findings, three plausible future scenarios for the study region and policy recommendations are presented Next limitations of the study and suggestions for future research are presented. Finally, a summary of the research and key findings is provided.

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30 CHAPTER II THEORETICAL BACKGROUND S OCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS (SES): CONCEPTS, FRAMEWORKS AND APPLICATIONS Introduction The purpose of this literature review is to provide a conceptual background for this research which examines responses of the water supplying regions to rural urban water transfer practices and the resultant changes in the region. The complex issues related to rural urban water transfers necessitate an approach to analysis that brings together many interrelated variables and recognizes the complex interactions between water, society and ecosystems. The concept of Social Ecological Systems (SES) and the analysis methods provide ways to consider the links between humans and their ecosystems and offer insights into the change processes arising from their interaction. Therefore, this chapter examines the literature pertaining to the conceptualization of Social Ecological Systems (SES) and analysis framework, and explores how it can be applied to p olicy and planning studies. In the pursuit of new ways of analyzing human nature interaction, methods of studying ecosystems and social systems as one system, i.e. linked or coupled social ecological systems, have gained prominence in many different disci plines. Recognizing the potential of linking social and ecological systems in the analysis, both social and ecological fields have begun to develop their primarily social or ecological frameworks into broader frameworks that include both social and ecologi cal systems. For instance, resilience research, though it has roots in ecology, has shifted away from purely ecological resilience toward processes of adaptation and transformation in the social systems that are

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31 needed to maintain SES resilience at differe nt scales (Folke et al., 2010). Similarly, the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, which was primarily developed and used by social scientists, has been expanded into Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) to include variables rele vant for analyzing ecological systems (McGinnis, 2011). Thus, this review examines the concepts and frameworks related to linked social ecological systems, specifically the social ecological resilience concepts and Social Ecological Systems framework (SESF ). These two concepts and frameworks have been applied in the analysis of numerous cases, both inductive and deductive, for understanding key variables in SESs and interaction between them. In this chapter, first, the conceptual foundations of SES and var ious available analysis frameworks are reviewed. Then, the important concepts of social ecological resilience and its applications and limitations are presented. This is followed by a discussion on Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) and its empir ical applications. Next, the pertinence of resilience concepts to the planning field and its potential role in planning practice and theory are discussed. Finally, complex issues associated with supplying water for human use are discussed to emphasize the need to integrate water issues in to planning and the suitability of SES analysis methods in water supply planning and management practices. Social Ecological Systems (SES) the integrated concept of humans in nature and to stress that the delineation between social and ecological systems is artificial and arbitrary. This view is the basis of the SES concept. This concept also emphasizes that the two parts, i.e. the social system and ecological

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32 system, are equally important, and they function as a coupled, interdependent, and co evolutionary system. The terms socio ecological system, socio eco system, and coupled human environment systems have also been used to describe the same co ncept. Cities, lake systems, and agricultural systems are examples of SES. A social ecological system consists of a biogeophysical unit and its associated social actors and institutions ( Glaser et al ., 2008). The social components of SES include economic, cultural, institutional and other human processes, while the ecological components include all biological, geological, chemical and physical processes relevant to a system. Conceptual Foundations and SES T heory Socio ecological systems are conceptualized and analyzed as complex adaptive systems. In defining SES, Berkes et al. (2003) point out that many of the principles of complex systems apply to both ecological systems and social systems. They exhibit complex p atterns and processes, such as non linear dynamics, thresholds, surprises, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, legacy effects, and resilience. Thus, complex systems theory provides a theoretical foundation for conceptualiz ing SES (Norberg & Cumming, 2008 ; Glaser, 2006). Because SES behavior is complex, developing a theory to explain it is contentious (Anderies et al., 2006). As Cumming (2011) points out, a full blown theory of SES has not yet been developed. Similarly, Anderies et al. (2006) indicate tha t a complete theory extreme level of complexity, there are many theories that are capable of explaining some aspects of the aggregate behavior of SESs. The study of SESs i s organized around certain

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33 higher level concepts, such as resilience, vulnerability, adaptation, and robustness (Cumming, 2011). Some scholars choose to refer this growing body of theory relating to SESs by the term Social Ecological Systems theory, or SES theory. SES research is more concerned with a wide range of SES dynamics and attributes than any one of the above terms implies (Cumming, 2011). SESs are constantly encountering surprises or disturbances. Hence, research to build SES theory is pursue d chiefly to understand the sources of changes and the ways SESs cope with disturbances (Glaser, 2006; Berkes et al., 2003; Gunderson, 2003). SES Analysis Frameworks The concept of SES is being used in many research areas with different theoretical i.e. they are weakly structured in common use, but become strongly structured when applied to a specific study (Becker, 2012). As a result, there are numerous methodologi es and conceptual frameworks for studying a particular aspect of SES. Thus, selection of an appropriate SES framework is crucial for effective analysis. Frameworks assist in the process of organizing variables that are necessary to explain a selected phe nomenon in a n SES study. By providing the basic terms and concepts that constitute the way of viewing the specific reality, they help in structuring diagnostic, descriptive, and prescriptive inquiries (McGinni s & Ostrom 2014). A f ramework identifies commo n variables relevant to a phenomenon, whereas theories postulate causal relationships among variables. Thus, different theoretical explanations can be built upon the foundation of a common conceptual framework ( Ostrom, 2007).

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34 Typology of SES analysis fram eworks Investigation of coupled SES has progressed substantially since its initial conceptualization. Diverse conceptual and methodological approaches have been developed to understand the interaction between the social systems and the ecological systems. Frameworks from different theoretical and disciplinary origins have conceptualized SES interactions and dynamics in different ways. Cumming (2011) lists the following six different frameworks that have been developed for the study of a n SES: 1.) Agent based models, 2.) Panarchy, 3.) Resilience Alliance Workbook, 4.) Complexity Theory Framework Asymmetries, Networks, Information Processing (Norberg & Cumming, 2008), 5.) SOHO Framework Self Organizing, Holarchic, Open Systems Approach, and 6.) S ustain ability Framework (Ostrom, 2007; 2009). Examination of the above frameworks shows that more recently developed frameworks incorporate ideas from earlier frameworks. For example, Resilience Alliance Workbook incorporates the concepts of Adaptive cycle and Panarchy s o they become part of one framework. More recently, Binder et al. (2013) compared ten different SES frameworks and classified them into four categories. Comparison of the frameworks was based on the ways the frameworks conceptualize the soc ial and the ecological systems, their interactions, and their goal. Some of the frameworks included in this analysis are: the Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) Framework (Eurostat 1999); the Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) (Ostro m, 2007; Ostro m, 2009; McGinnis & Ostrom, 2014 ); The Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) (Scoones 1998; Ashley & Carney 1999); the Vulnerability framework (TVUL; Turner et al. 2003). Based on the comparative analysis,

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35 the selected frameworks were classified into the following four categories: Ecocentric frameworks, Integrative frameworks, Policy frameworks, Vulnerability frameworks The available SES frameworks differ significantly and they partially capture the dynamics of SESs by focusing on a p articular aspect of SESs. They have been applied in order to understand SESs at different temporal, social, and spatial scales. Therefore, their applications enhance our understanding of complex SESs. However, there is no single framework that can be used to address all research issues in SES (Binder et al., 2014). Such a wide variety of available frameworks makes the selection of an appropriate framework for a study and the integration of knowledge about SESs across disciplines challenging. The right frame work needs to be selected based on the problem being studied and the way in which the social ecological system is conceptualized. Based on the comparative analysis of ten different SES frameworks, Binder et al. (2013) concluded that the Social Ecological S ystems Framework (SESF) is one of the most comprehensive frameworks available, as it provides a frame for developing different degrees of specificity in the analysis. In the following sections important concepts, applications and limitations of the SES resilience approach and Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) are reviewed. Social Ecological Resilience The word resilience is derived from Latin resilire meaning to spring back. The concept of resilience has been employed in diverse fields a cross social and natural sciences such as ecology, psychology, structural engineering, and business studies. Different disciplines cognize resilience in different ways and the term has a variety of disciplinary specific definitions and meanings. This sect ion focuses on the resilience concept in the context of SES which is rooted in systems theory and ecology. Resilience approach is

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36 considered to be a theory in development, especially with regard to its application to SESs (Gunderson & Holling, 2002). And eries et al. (2006) believe that rather than a well defined theory, the Conceptualization of SES resilience, characteristics of resilient systems, methods of analysis of resilience, and limitations of the resilience approach are discussed in this section. Conceptualization and Definition Understanding of resilience in social systems, ecological systems and interconnected social ecological systems i s diverse. Conceptualization and definition of engineering, social and ecological resilience are reviewed below before reviewing how resilience ideas have been conceptualized and applied in the analysis of SESs. Engineering resilience. Engineering resilien ce refers to the ability of a system to return to an equilibrium or steady state after a disturbance (Holling et al ., 1995). Resistance to disturbance and return time are used to measure engineering resilience. Ecological resilienc e. Theoretical ecologist C. S. Holling introduced the word resilience into the ecological literature. Natural systems are considered to be dynamic and he applied the resilience concept to describe the non linear dynamics observed in ecosystems. Ecological resilience is understoo d as the ability of ecological systems to persist in the face of disturbance and maintain relationships between different elements of the system (Holling, 1973; Holling et al ., 1995). Rejecting the existence of a single equilibrium, it proposes that there are multiple equilibria. Heterogeneity in ecological systems is considered to enhance its resilience.

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37 Social resilience Adger (2003) defined social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to adapt in the face of external social, political or environmental stresses and disturbances. Social resilience is composed of components such as economic growth, stability and dist ribution of income, degree of dependency on natural resources, and diversity in the kind of activities or functions being performed within systems (Adger 2000). When a social system is dependent on a single ecosystem or resource, resilience of the social system is related to the resilience of the ecological system. SES resilience This approach considers that the social and ecological systems cannot be conceived in isolation, as human systems are a component of and in turn shape ecological systems. Thus, t he feedback dynamics between social and ecological systems is emphasized in SES resilience. Many ecological resilience concepts have been applied in the understanding of SES dynamics and it has been frequently redefined. Definition. Brand and Jax (2007) reviewed a variety of definitions proposed for Resilience and identified one of the widely accepted definitions. It is a hybrid concept of resilience in which both descriptive and normative connotations are combined. This hybrid concept defines resilienc and re organize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, (Walker et al., 2004; Adger et al., 2005; Folke, 2006). Concepts In the SES resilience approach, many organizing ideas and concepts have been proposed for understanding and analyzing SESs such as Adaptive cycle, Panarchy, Stability domain, and Basin of attraction. These ideas, variedly described as metaphors, concepts, framew orks, system properties, and system dynamics, are discussed below.

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38 S y s t e m D y n a m i c s: A d a pt iv e C y c l e P a n a r c h y and Basin of Attraction A d a pt iv e c y c l e T h e a d a pt i v e c y c l e c on c e p t w h ic h w a s o r i g i n all y d e v e l op e d t o e xp lai n t h e b i o l og ic a l d yn a m ic s o f ec o s y s te m s i s w i d el y u s e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e d yn a m i c s o f s o cia l e c o l og i c a l s y s te m s (W a l k e r et al. 200 4 ) A cc o r d i n g t o t h i s m o d e l ( Re f e r F i gu r e 2 .1 a ), due to internal dynamics and external influences, t h e s t r u ct u r e s a n d f un c t i on s o f s y s te m s change in four characteristic phases ( H o lli ng 20 0 1 ). T h e f ou r ph a s e s a r e : e xp l oi t a ti o n (r) c on s e r v ati o n ( K ) r e l e a s e ( a n d r e o r g a ni z a t io n ) ( H o lli n g & G un d e r s o n 20 0 2 ) T h e f i r s t exploitation (r) ph a s e i s a ph a s e o f g r o w t h C o m p eti t i o n i s h i g h i n t h i s ph a s e A s t h e c y c l e p r o c e e d s fr o m t h e e xp l oi t a ti o n (r ) ph a s e t o t h e c on s e r v ati o n ( K ) ph a s e i n t e r c onn ec t e d n e s s o f t h e s y s te m i n c r ea s e s a n d s l o w acc u m u la t i o n a n d s t o r a g e o f m ate r i a l s a n d e n e r g y ( o r c a p i t al ) o c c u r s A s po te n t i a l a c c u m u late s t h e s y s te m b ec o m e s m o r e s ta b l e a n d e a s ie r t o p r e d i c t ( G un d e r s o n & H o l l i n g 2 00 2 ) H o w e v e r i n t h i s ph a s e t h e s y s te m b ec o m e s m o r e r i g i d a n d i t l o s e s r e s ilie n c e T h i s i nh i b it s i t s ca p a c i t y t o d e a l w it h s u r p r i s e s I n r e s p o n s e t o a t r i gg e r t h e s y s te m w il l m ov e fr o m the c o n s e r v ati o n ( K ) ph a s e t o t h e r e lea s e ( ph a s e I n t h i s ph a s e, t h e acc u m u l a t e d pot e n t i a l i s r e l ea s e d T h i s i s f o ll o w e d b y a r e o r g a n iza t i o n ( ) ph a s e i n w h ic h r e l ea s e d m ate r i a l s a r e m ob il i z e d t o s ta r t a no t h e r e xp l oi ta t i o n ph a s e i n a n e w c y cle T h e r e o r g a n iz a ti o n o f t h e s y s te m i s d ete r m i n e d b y it s a d a pt i v e ca p ac i t y The r e o r g a n iz a ti o n ( ) ph a s e i s a ti m e w h e n unp r e d ic t a b l e e v e n t s l i k e i nv a s i v e s p ecie s a n d a c t o r s l i k e n e w e n t r e p r e n e u r s a r e a b l e t o f o s te r nov elt y and innovation a n d d i r e c t t h e r e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e s y s te m i n n e w a n d d i f f e r e n t d i r ec t i on s ( G un d e r s o n & H o l l i n g 2 00 2 ).

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39 T h e e xp l o it a ti o n (r ) a n d c on s e r v ati o n ( K ) ph a s e s a r e k no w n a s t h e fr on t l oo p o f t h e s y s te m T h i s l oo p i s c h a r a c te r i z e d b y s l o w g r o w t h a n d acc u m u l a ti on a n d r e l a t i v e p r e d ic t a bi l i t y T h e r e l e a s e ( a n d r e o r g a n iz a ti o n ) ph a s e s a r e k no w n a s t h e b a c k l oo p o f t h e s y s te m T h i s i s c h a r a cte r i z e d b y r a pi d c h a ng e a n d un ce r t a i n t y ( H ol li n g & G und e r s o n, 2 0 02 ) A d a p t i ve C y c l e P a n a rc h y F i g u re 2.1: A d a p t i ve C y c l e and P a n a rc h y ( S ou r ce : G und e r s on & H o lli n g 2002 ) P a n a r c h y T h e d yn a m ic s o f a s y s te m a t a p a r t ic ul a r s ca l e o f i n te r e s t i e t h e f o c a l s cale c a n b e fully comprehended only w hen the d yn a m ic s a n d c r o s s s cal e i n f l u e n ce s o f t h e p r o ce ss e s fr o m t h e s cale s a bov e a n d b e l o w it are understood T h e te r m P a n a r c h y i s u s e d t o ca p t u r e t h e d yn a m ic s o f a d a pt i v e c y c le s t h a t a r e n e s te d w it h i n on e a no t h e r ac r o s s the s p ac e a n d ti m e s c a le s ( B e r k e s e t a l 20 03 ) P a n a r c hi c a l r e l a ti on s s u g g e s t t h a t bo t h t o p d o w n a n d bo tt o m u p i n te r a c t i on s o cc ur ( G un d e r s o n & H o lli ng 20 02 ). As shown in Fig. 2.1 the R e vo l t c onn ec t i o n r e p r e s e n t s t h e p r o ce s s b y w h ic h c h a ng e s a t t h e sm all f a s t s ca l e acc u m u la t e a n d ca s c a d e t o ov e r w h el m e v e n t s a t t h e la r g e r s c a l e ( H o l l i ng 200 1 ) T h e m e m b e r

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40 r e p r e s e n t s t h e p r o ce s s b y w h ic h c h a ng e s a t t h e la r g e r s ca l e c on s t r ai n e v e n t s a n d p r o c e ss e s a t t h e sm alle r s c a l e ( H o l l i n g 2 00 1 ) S o m e s c ho la r s u s e t h e a d a p ti v e c y c l e a s a n a n a l yt i c a l t oo l a n d o t h e r s v ie w i t a s a h e u r i s ti c c on ce p t u a l m o d e l When SES adapt and change, Panarchy and Adaptive cycle concepts provide an evolutionary un d e r s ta n ding of SES but they are not helpful in measuring resilience in a system. B a s i n s o f a t t r a c t i o n T h e i d e a o f a b a l l o n a s u rf ac e h a s o f te n been u s e d t o i ll u s t r a t e t h e c on c e p t o f r e s ilie n ce w h e r e t h e b a l l r e p r e s e n t s t h e s t a t e o f t h e s y s te m a n d t h e s u rf ac e r e p r e s e n t s t h e f o r ce s a c ti n g t o c h a ng e t h a t s t a t e ( G und e r s o n & H o lli ng 2 0 0 2 ) V a l l e y s i n t h e s u rf ac e a l s o te r m e d a s Ba s i n s o f att r a c ti o n o r S t a bi l i t y d o m ai n s r e p r e s e n t s ta b l e s t ate s w h e r e t h e c u rr e n t s y s te m i s p r e s e r v e d ( F i gu r e .2. 2 ) H i l l s o n t h e o t h e r h a n d r e p r e s e n t t h e s t r e ng t h o f t h e f o r ce s pu s h i n g t h e s y s te m i n a p a r t ic u la r d i r ec t i o n a n d po te n t i a l l y i n t o a n e w c on f i gu r ati on T h e b a l l m ov e s ac r o s s t h e s u rf ac e o r s ett l e s i n a v a l le y d e p e nd i n g o n t h e r e s i l i e n c e o f t h e s y s te m a n d t h e f o r c e o f t h e s t r e ss o r s acti n g o n t h e s y s te m T h e s iz e o f t h e b a s i n o f a tt r a c ti o n ca n b e t hough t o f a s t h e r e s i l ie n c e o f a s y s te m ( Re s il i e n c e A l l ia n ce 201 0 ) T h e r e f o r e t h e l a r g e r t h e b a s i n o f att r a c ti on t h e m o r e r e s ilie n t t h e s y s te m a n d t h e m o r e d i ff i c ul t i t i s t o pu s h t h e s y s te m i n t o a s ta t e o f uph ea v al A s y s te m m a y h a v e s e v e r a l b a s i n s o f a t t r a c ti o n w h ic h a r e t e r m e d a l te r n a ti v e s ta bl e s t a te s As s u c h m u l t i pl e s ta bl e s tate s r e s u l t fr o m t h e c o m p le x n a t u r e o f S E S s ( A nd e r ie s 20 06 ) The set of system states within a stability landscape is known as a regime.

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41 F i g u re 2.2: Shift t o w a r d s a n o t h e r S t a b ili t y D o m a i n ( S ou r ce : R e sili e n c e A lli a n ce 2010 ) R e g i m e s h i ft s. Re g i m e s h i f t s are d e f i n e d a s s u dd e n s h i f t s i n s y s te m s w h e r e b y a system crosses the threshold and moves to a new regime (Resilience Alliance, 2010). The new regime differs from the previous regime in terms of its core f un c t i on s t r u ct u r e a n d p r o ce ss A n S ES op e r ate s und e r a ce r t a i n r e g i m e r e p r e s e n t e d a s a b a s i n o f att r a c ti on o r s ta b i li t y d o m ai n I n r e s p o n s e s t o c h a n g i n g e xt e r n a l d r i v e r s a n d i n te r n a l p r o ce ss e s a n S ES m a y c on ti nu a l l y c h a ng e a n d a d a p t a n d remain w it h i n a stability d o m ai n or r e g i m e o r c r o s s t h r e s ho l d s a n d c r e a t e n e w s ta b il i t y d o m ai n s T h e c a p a c it y t o a d a p t and remain w it h i n t h e s ta bi l i t y d o m a i n i s k no w n a s a d a pt a bi l i t y o r a d a p ti v e c a p a c it y T h i s ca p a c i t y i s considered p a r t o f r e s i l ie n c e The capacity to cross thresholds into a new stability domain is Transformability. The process of shifting to a different stability domain is known as critical transition. Transformation requires a regime change. These processes are interrelated across m ultiple scales. For example, transformational change at smaller scales enables resilience at larger scales. At the same time, the capacity to transform at smaller scales draws on resilience from multiple scales,

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42 making use of crises as windows of opportuni ty for novelty and innovation (Folke et al., 2010) Resilience Approaches: Equilibrium and Evolutionary Resilience The concepts of basin s of attraction and alternate stable states highlight two contrasting approaches to understanding resilience in a system The two approaches are: Equilibrium or bounce back approach, based on return to normal assumptions and Evolutionary or bounce forward approach characterized by an emphasis on adaptive capacity and transformation. Equilibrium or b ounce back approach. In this approach, resilience is considered the ability of a system to absorb or accommodate shocks and disturbances without undergoing any system change (Holling, 1973). Referred to as the engineering resilience, it assumes a single, static equilibrium. This approach is commonly adopted within disaster management, where the ability to bounce back to a pre disaster state in a rapid fashion is the preferred goal (Davoudi, 2012). However, a number of limitations to the equilibrium resilience approach are identif ied; it is considered deterministic; it does not allow for reform and transformation as a response to crisis. Evolutionary or bounce forward approach. In this approach, the idea of single equilibrium is contested. It considers the adaptive capacity of a sy stem and emphasizes the evolutionary change processes and transformation of a system. By recognizing the ability of a system to adapt and develop new trajectories for an improved system, this approach challenges planning tools, such as extrapolation of pas t trends in forecasting.

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43 Attributes of Resilient Systems In resilience literature, a number of factors that contribute to the resilience of a n SES are identified. Folke et al. (2003), first, identified four critical factors that are required for resilience in social ecological systems: l earning to live with change and uncertainty; c ombining different t ypes of knowledge for learning; c reating opportunity for self organiza tion toward social ecological resilience; and n urturing sources of resilience for renewal and reorganization. These four first order factors are manifestation s of many second order processes and they interact across temporal and spatial scales. Since this initial conceptualization, new insights are constantly incorporated into SES resilience analysis to identify system variables and qualitatively describe their relationships with each other. The key factors influencing the resilience of a n SES are its capacity to adapt and its diversity (Ar mitage, 2005; Folke et al., 2005 ). Review of SES resilience literature reveals other characteristics of a resilient system such as institutions, community i nvolvement and learning. Many of these characteristics are considered subcomponents of adaptive capacity or diversity. An overview of the adaptive capacity and diversity is presented below. Diversity. Diversity lessens the dependence on one single function al aspect of the system. The underlying rationale is that if a particular function is disturbed, there are alternative ways to provide the same functions. This redundancy is an important aspect of coping with unexpected societal and environmental changes. Two important aspects of the diversity component are: v ariety of alternative systems to have redundancy and fulfill system function s and v ariety of different perspectives of the people in the SES, which prevents uniform group thinking and blind spots ( Van der Brugge, 2009)

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44 Adaptive c apacity. Social adaptive capacity describes the ability to mobilize resources to respond to perceived or current stresses. Adaptive capacity is recognized as a critical system property for maintaining the resilience of SES in the face of uncertainty. Thus, it is important to identify what builds adaptive capacity. The system mobilizes adaptive capacity in different ways for different stresses. Adaptive capacity of a system can change over time in response to stresses and it varies depending on the scale and context. In the resilience literature, adaptive capacity is associated with enabling changes that aim to maintain the existing system. However, adaptive cap acity is also required to transform the system when existing conditions of the system are untenable. Various determinants of adaptive capacity are elaborated on in Chapter Three. Resilience Assessment M ethods and A pplication Different approaches have been adopted by resilience scholars in order to assess resilience in SES in various contexts. Some of the approaches adopted are: the Folke et a l. (2003) theoretical model (As a h 2009); the Adaptive cycle metaphor (Gonzalez et al. 2008); and the Resilience assessment framework (Walker et al. 2009). The Resilience Assessment Framework by Resilience Alliance (2010) has been widely applied in the analysis of SES to understand how a system responds to planned interventions and other external drivers and shocks. Key concepts of resilience are integrated in to this framework to provide a method for analyz ing dynamics of change in SESs. It has also been applied in the analysis of existing or proposed policies and their outcomes. Davoudi (2012) cautions th at application across a range of social science disciplines indicates its emergence as a fuzzy or elastic concept. Resilience concepts and assessment methods do not offer ready

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45 made solutions to address problems in SES and building resilience. However, it opens new perspectives in thinking about policies and development (Hudson, 2010). Research m ethods. Since social and ecological systems are interconnected, studying resilience involves the adoption of cross disciplinary and multidisciplinary methods (Bah adur e t al 2011). Downes et al. (2013 ) examined empirical research on resilience from the social and natural sciences and compared the methods employed. Studies on social resilience focus on responses of individuals to changes and predominantly employ su rveys, whereas ecolo gical resilience studies employ diverse study designs including areal, before after studies, experiment s and survey s Resilience thinking has been applied to a range of social science and policy disciplines, including disaster planning, evolutionary economic geography, urban and regional studies, spatial planning, and community studies. Limitations As a system based analysis, resilience thinking adopts a holis tic approach and integrates a variety of scholarly disciplines. As a result there is a lack of conceptual clarity and robust operationalization of the resilience concept (Bahadur et al 2011; Tyler, 2012). Multiple levels of meaning undermine its applic ation (Carpenter et al., 2001). Though examples of actions that build resilience are provided in the literature, links between the characteristics of resilient systems and required actions are not well established. One of the limitations that is extensivel y discussed in the literature is the capacity of the resilience approach to analyze social systems (Glaser, 2006; Adger et al., 2009; Cote & Nightingale, 2011). The Resilience approach to SES analysis began with bringing in biological concepts, such as ada ptive cycle, into systems theory and applying it to social

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46 dynamics. The underlying driving force of the adaptive renewal cycle is competition. Therefore, this approach neglects the human capacity for reflection and value change (Glaser, 2006). However, t he more recent resilience approaches to SES analysis methods, such as the Resilience Assessment Framework, attempt to include human capacity and focus on human reflexivity, adaptation, leadership, social learning and governance which are absent from the a daptive renewal cycle concept (Adger et al., 2009; Brand & Jax, 2007). These attempts to include human capacity have been found to have certain limitations as well. They have been criticized for the lack of attention to processes of social and political ch ange. Cote and Nightingale (2011) argue that analyses of the capacity to adapt to change must be framed within an understanding of cultural values, historical context and ethical standpoints of actors involved. To capture the options available to a specifi c SES in order to respond to change more realistically, the above considerations are considered essential. Another criticism is that this approach focuses on disturbance caused by external forces and ignores the internal forces within the system. With the assumption that a desired state exists, the resilience approach supports the status quo and promotes a business as usual approach. By enabling people to continue practices that are unsustainable in the longer term, resilience might even stand in the way of fundamental changes when required (Pelling, 2011). Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) The Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) proposed by Ostrom (2007; 2009) identifies the basic working components in a n SES and the relationship between them to facilitate its analysis (McGinnis & Ostrom, 2014). It is developed based on the notion that harnessing the complexity of a n SES is important for analysis (Ostrom, 2007).

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47 The SESF builds on the foundation of the Institutional Analysis and Development ( IAD) Framework (McGinnis M, 2011). Therefore, this section briefly discusses the components of the IAD framework first and then the SES framework and its applications. The Framework descriptions are based on the foll owing works: Ostrom, 2005; 2007; 2009; 2011; McGinnis M, 2011; and McGinnis and Ostrom, 2014. Institutional Analysis and Development ( IAD) Framework The IAD framework enables the analysis of institutional settings, i.e. any situations that involve peopl e interacting together in a certain context and following certain rules (Ostrom, 2005). A k ey part of this framework is the identification of an action situation and the resulting patterns of interactions and outcomes. Action situations are the social spaces where individuals interact, exchange goods situation are the decision making entities who play a certain role and who are capable of selecting actions from a se t of alternatives available in a decision process. They act on their own behalf or as agents of larger groups or organizations. Social, institutional, and biophysical factors are inputs for the decisions made by actors. A c ollection of individual decision s constitutes patterns of interaction. These interactions and exogenous factors produce observable outcomes. Outcomes feed back into all of the previous components of this continuous process.

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48 Figure 2.3: A Framework for Institutional Analysis. ( Source: Ostrom, 2005 ) Levels of a nalysis The IAD framework can be used to analyze rules existing at three different levels. The three vertical levels of analysis are the Operational, Collective choice and Constitutional choice level s Operational rules are a set of basic rules that affect day to day decisions in action settings. These basic operational rules and participants at the operational level are determined by collective choice rules. At the Constitutional choice level, rules are set to guide future col lective level decisions. This is the top tier and determines frameworks for lower level rule creation. This framework has been applied in a range of situations to systematically analyze the structure of situations and to determine how rules, the nature of events and the attributes of the surrounding environment and local community affect these situations over time (McGinnes, 2011). Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) Description The SESF was developed by expanding the IAD framework to include variables relevant for analyzing ecological systems and reflect the hierarchical qualities of complex social ecological systems (Cox & Ostrom, 2010; McGinnis, 2011). It was developed on

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49 the assumption that the complexity in SES is decomposable into components that are interrelated. This framework provides an extensive multitier hierarchy of variables to facilitate the analysis of how interactions among a variety of factors affect outcomes. Since its initial development in 2007, it has been continuously revised to make it applicable to a broad range of empirical settings. The most recent version of the framework is described below. Figure 2 .4: Revised Social Ecological System Framework (SES F ) ( Source: McGinnis and Ostrom, 2014 ) Framework d escription. A large number of factors or variables, which have been identified as relevant to the dynamic patterns of interaction between human groups and their environment, are arranged in nested tiers in the SESF (Ostrom, 2007). There are six first tier variables in the framework: resource system, resource units, governance system, actors, interactions, and outcomes. the framework. Within each of these first tier variables are secon d tier variables and all

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50 these variables are embedded in external social, economic, and political settings and related ecosystems. The first tier variables and contextual factors affect the structure of action situations where all the actions take place. The actions of multiple actors in an action situation, influenced by first tier variables and contextual factors, result in outcomes. Feedback paths link outcomes of action situations back to the first tier and contextual variables (Refer Fig. 2.2). The higher tier variables are disaggregated into lower tier fine grained variables. Accordingly, within each second tier variable are third tier variables and if applicable, fourth and fifth tier variables. The cho ice of relevant lower tier variables for analysis depends on the particular questions under study, the spatial and temporal scales of analysis, and the type of SES (Ostrom, 2009). Each first tier variable is represented by multiple solid boxes in Fig 2.2 to indicate the possibility of multiple instances of the first tier variables operating concurrently. Arrows represent links between variables and arrow labels indicate the different logical nature of these connections. Dashed arrows denote feedback from action situation to the top tier variables. The connections and feedback loops in the framework indicate that the framework captures the dynamic nature of SESs. It conceptualizes SES s particularly social systems in SESs, both at the micro and macro level. In an attempt to treat the social and ecological systems equally, this framework adopts an anthropocentric perspective and includes the dynamics of the ecological system that are relevant to the social system. The nested hierarchy of variables in t he framework enables the use of data from different aggregation levels and supports analysis at different scales.

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51 Table 2.1: Second T ier Variables of a Social Ecological System First tier variable Second tier variables Social, economic, and political settings (S) S1 Economic development S2 Demographic trends S3 Political stability S4 Other governance systems S5 Markets S6 Media organizations S7 Technology Resource systems (RS) RS1 Sector (e.g., water, forests, pasture, fish) RS2 Clarity of system boundaries RS3 Size of resource system RS4 Human constructed facilities RS5 Productivity of system RS6 Equilibrium properties RS7 Predictability of system dynamics RS8 Storage characterist ics RS9 Location Governance systems (GS) GS1 Government organizations GS2 Nongovernment organizations GS3 Network structure GS4 Property rights systems GS5 Operational choice rules GS6 Collective choice rules GS7 Constitutional choice rules GS8 Monitoring and sanctioning rules Resource units (RU) RU1 Resource unit mobility RU2 Growth or replacement rate RU3 Interaction among resource units RU4 Economic value RU5 Number of units RU6 Distinctive characteristics RU7 Spatial and temporal distribution Actors (A) A1 Number of relevant actors A2 Socioeconomic attributes A3 History or past experiences A4 Location A5 Leadership/entrepreneurship A6 Norms (trust reciprocity)/social capital A7 Knowledge of SES/mental models A8 Importance of resource (dependence) A9 Technologies available Action situations: Outcomes (O) I1 Harvesting I2 Information sharing I3 Deliberation processes I4 Conflicts I5 Investment activities I6 Lobbying activities I7 Self organizing activities I8 Networking activities I9 Monitoring activities I10 Evaluative activities O1 Social performance measures (e.g., efficiency, equity, accountability, sustainability) O2 Ecological performance measures (e.g., overharvested, resilience, biodiversity, sustainability) O3 Externalities to other SESs Related ecosystems (ECO) ECO1 Climate patterns ECO2 Pollution patterns ECO3 Flows into and out of focal SES Source: Ostrom, 2009

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52 Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) Application The SESF is considered an analysis oriented framework (Binder et al., 2013). It can be used as a structuring tool to organize data in SES analysis and as a diagnostic tool to improve system understanding. As a diagnostic tool, it can be applied to analyze the conditions under which rules are developed in a n SES and the mechanisms behind the outcomes. Thus, it is useful in the assessment of human interventions in SES and in the identification of a potential set of problem causing or benefitting variables in SESs. Based on the research questions and the nature of SESs, researcher s can use different theories within the framework. The set of variables in the framework can be us ed to study a single SES or compare similar SESs. Empirical a pplications. The SESF is actively used by researchers and empirical studies applying the SESF are carried out to explore and compare dynamics of SESs. This framework has been applied to examine different kinds of SES s such as forest s fisheries and irrigation systems, with different objectives. The results of such studies are beginning to emerge in academic literature. Primarily, researchers have empl oyed the SESF to identify variables that have influenced a specific SES property, including: Self organization (Basurto & Ostrom, 2009); Persistanc e overtime (Cox, 2014 ); Community responses (Fleischman et al., 2010); Collective action (Nagendra & Ostrom, 2014); and Adaptive capacity (Risvoll et al 2014). Application s of the framework and method s of analysis in these studies are summarized in Table 2 .2 and they are briefly discussed below.

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53

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54 Method of a nalysis. These studies listed in Table 2 .2 clearly indicate the Basurto and Ostrom (2009) identified specific variables based on a theory and assigned values to the variable in three selected SES cases. The variable values were compared across cases to identify what contributed to the emergence of self organization and robustness of the SESs. Cox (2014) adopted the began with identifying all the pertinent variables in the SES framework and assigning categorical values to them. Then the process of system change was analyzed by tracing the interactions between variables. This analysis method contributed to the understanding of each variable link to the other and ultimately to the outcome i.e. persistence of the SES. This study used multiple ve rsions of top tier components in the analysis. Fleischman et al. (2010) employed the framework to identify the system variables contributing to disturbances in the systems as well as the community responses to those disturbances. Nagendra and Ostrom (2014) applied the framework to analyze the outcome of collective action and ecological performance in multiple SESs. In this study, potential variables were identified based on existing field knowledge and theoretical formulation. This was followed by a comparative analysis of variables in multiples cases to identify variables contributing to collective actions. Risvoli et al. (2014) focused on resilience and adaptive capacity in their study. They employed the SES framework to build a common language and enable comparisons across studies. The empirical studies above illustrate the many possible ways and contexts in which the SESF can be used. The initial application s of the SESF in single case studies were qualitative and descriptive in nature. Variables were inductively identified and

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55 described. Such studies were carried out chiefly to understand the interaction between variables. Multiple comparative case studies selected variables based on a theory or previous research and assigned values to the variabl es in different cases. Based on the assessment of variables in different cases, these studies identified the variables contributing to a particular outcome in a n SES such as sustainability or collective action. These empirical applications illustrate the use of the SESF in both in depth analysis of a single case study and multiple comparative case studies. The SESF has also been used to organize findings to make comparison s across case studies The SESF helps provide insight into how current institutional arrangements, community characteristics, and environmental conditions restrict or enable desirable outcomes. Such insights help the formulation of recommendations that may be able to bring about more desirable outcomes. Thus, the SESF can play a key role i n analyzing the outcomes of planning and policy interventions and in proposing different possible development alternatives and institutional arrangements. Strength and Limitations The SESF provides a common vocabulary and relevant variables for SES analysis and facilitates the comparison and communication of results. However, it is criticized for not establishing a protocol for the measurement of variables. Lack of adequate guidance on the selection and representation of variables for a specific research question is considered a weakness of SESF (Cox, 2011). Thus, further improvement of the framework through the establishment of standards for variable measurement is called for (Cox, 201 1). It is also considered weak in incorporating ecological aspects of SES s It is criticized for

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56 adopting an anthropocentric view of and employing simplified representations of ecosystem components (Cumming, 2011). Modifications and Innovations Since its initial conceptualization in 2007, the SESF has been subjected to modifications and innovations to overcome its limitations and to make it applicable to a wide variety of systems (McGinnes, 2011). Extending the application of the SES framework to Social T echnical Systems (STS), such as infrastructure systems, are being explored (McGinnes & Ostrom, 2014). Modification to the variables under the Governance System category ha s been suggested recently (Refer to Table 2.3) The following tentative list of pot ential second tier (and selected third tier) factors is considered for inclusion in the framework. Table 2.3: Alternative List of Second Tier Properties for Governance Systems Second tier variable Third tier variables GS1* Policy area GS2* Geographic scale of governance system GS3* Population GS4* Regime type GS5* Rule making organizations Public sector organizations (government agencies, etc.) Private sector organizations (for profit) Nongovernmental, nonprofit organizations Communi ty based organizations Hybrid organizations GS6* Rules in use Operational choice rules Collective choice rules Constitutional choice rules GS7* Property rights systems GS8* Repertoire of norms and strategies GS9* Network structure GS10* Historical continuity Source: McGinnes and Ostrom, 2014.

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57 Social Ecological Resilience: Application in Planning The purpose of reviewing the SES literature in the previous sections of this chapter is to explore what insights can be gained from the understanding of linked social ecological systems, particularly SES resilience concepts for the urban and environmental policy and planning theory and practice. Though SES resilience is comp aratively a new concept, it has gained prominence in planning and it is of interest to planning theory and practice for several reasons. Essentially, it provides an analytical lens for understanding and addressing the complex and dynamic non linear human nature relations. SES resilience concepts have the potential planning, and the practitioners need for methods and tools for enhancing the understanding of interactio n between social and ecological systems, and for addressing emerging ecological concerns. Resilience thinking has infiltrated into the planning discipline A growing body of academic planning literature is examining the challenges of operationalizing the concept of resilience in planning and how resilience thinking can provide a comprehensive basis for planning related matters. Planning scholars and practi tioners have begun to apply resilience concepts to disaster planning, management and recovery, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, urban water management, energy and environmental security, and urban design (Coaffee, 2013; Wilkinson, 2012). In v iew of the above considerations, this section explores what planning theory and practice can gain from the SES resilience literature. Before discussing its influences on planning theory and practice, how policy arenas engage with resilience concepts are

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58 re viewed, since policies determine actions. Then, this section traces the development of planning approaches and analy ze s the potential of SES resilience concepts in addressing the current concerns of planning theory and practice. Finally, this section exami nes interpretation and adoption of resilience concepts in the planning domain thus far and discusses emerging issues in its application. Resilience in Policy Domain Resilience is increasingly incorporated into current policy and public discourses associated with natural and human induced disasters, uncertainty, and change. Most of these policies merely include resilience as a desired positive characteristic and aspiration, instead of aiming at generating action and influenc ing practice (White & are, 2014). In these policy spheres, except in the climate change field, distinction between equilibrium resilience and evolutionary resilience is not acknowledged and the engineering or equilibrium resilience approach is adopted to deal with exte rnal short term risks (White & It is not possible to generalize the approach across countries since many factors, such as institutional arrangements and the risks faced by a nation, influence the way in which resilience thinking is integrated into policy. However, based on the analysis of re silience policies, Coaffee (2013 ) notes that in the UK, the US and Japan, with the rise of natural and human induced disasters, resilience has become a highly politicized policy rhetoric. However, with the evolution of resilience concepts and changing socio political and economic pressures, interpretation of resilien ce within policy domain is changing. Changing dimensions of resilience in policies. While analyzing the evolution of resilience concepts in the policy domain, Coaffee (2013 ) identifies four generations of

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59 resilience concepts. Though this is discussed in th e context of UK policy and planning context, it applies to many other countries as well. In the pre 2000 era, resilience was connected to policies associated with emergency planning and international terrorism. The focus was on enhancing the ability to abs orb shock. This first generation resilience (1GR) was, thus, reactive in approach. The efforts to increase preparedness for shocks led to the develop preventi ve actions. At this stage, resilience began to be linked to the planning system. Third generation resilience (3GR), in addition to anticipating shocks, attempted to embed resilience within everyday activities. The global economic recession has led to the eme rgence of the fourth generation resilience (4GR). 4GR focuses on place based resilience and resiliency practices at the local level; as a result, it is increasingly connected to the planning system. The different ways in which resilience is interpreted and articulated at the policy level has influenced its interpretation in the planning practice which is explored in the following section. Resilience in Planning T heory Social ecological resilience is of relevance for planning theory. The concern of planning theorists that process is given more emphasis over substantive matters in planning could be addressed by the SES resilience field. This potential is discussed below by tracing the development of approaches to planning processes and the limitations associated with different approaches. Planning processes and perception of reality. A review of pla nning procedural theories indicate that the developments of planning processes have been mainly about

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60 changing the perception of reality and dealing with the understanding of growing complexity of reality (De Roo, 2010). Different perceptions of reality can be associated with different system classes, such as closed, feedback and complex systems. With this understanding, various phases of the development of planning process can be linked to changes in perception of reality as different system classes. Th e first generation rational planning process considers planning as a purely objective process and planning units are considered closed systems with distinct components and fixed interactions. A realization that knowledge is subjective and planning needs to include different viewpoints led to the development of second generation planning approach. With the acceptance that full certainty does not exist, this approach views reality as feedback systems and network systems. In this planning approach, attention i s shifted from an object oriented and knowable reality to an inter subjective, perceived reality (Grunauv, 2010). However, the second generation planning theory is criticized for emphasizing matters of process and ignoring the key difference between cont ent, i.e. conceptual contents of a planning task, and communication. In response to such criticism, the emerging third generation planning approach views reality as continually evolving and acknowledges complexity. This idea of an evolving system is directly linked to time and system characteristics such as emergence and co evolution; thus, reality is viewed as complex adaptive system. This approach accepts neither a predictable world interpreted by means of a technical rationale nor an uncertain, mu lti interpretable world that can be dealt with by adopting a communicative rationale (Grunauv, 2010). Characteristics, such as adaptation, emergence, self organization, and co evolution, are associated with these systems. Within this perspective

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61 of realit y, resilience concepts could help the planners to focus on the content of the planning process by facilitating the understanding of dynamics of reality as complex adaptive systems Resilience and Planning P ractice Due to increasing environmental problems from the local to the global scale, the need to understand nature society interaction and include ecological considerations in planning is emphasized. The compelling reason for this is the snowballing impact of huma n settlements and development activities on the environment. Essentially, issues associated with interactions between human and nature are fundamental to the process of human settle ment planning and urbanization and planners have paid attention to this issue considerably. Concepts developed by Ebenezer Howard and Patrick Geddes in the last century to the present day environmental planning, sustainability and climate change literature demonstrate the above fact. Yet e merging environmental issues and deter iorating environmental conditions at both the local and global scale indicate that critical human nature interactions have not been completely understood and dealt with effectively by planners. The reasons are attributed to the predominance of the anthro pocentric view in planning in recent times, and the shallow understanding of interconnectedness between social and ecological systems ( Wilkinson, 2012 ). Thus, new methods of analyzing and understanding human nature relationships are required, and the SES resilience approach can offer the much needed alternative analytical methods. Emerging research in the SES resilience field indicates that the SES concepts and analysis methods have the potential to play a significant role in both problem setting and probl em solving in planning practices; as a problem setting or framing tool, it offers

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62 alternative analytical methods and insights; as a problem solving tool, it has the potential to inform planning decisions related to development processes (Wilkinson, 2011). However, this will be significantly influenced by the way resilience is interpreted. These two potential roles and issues are discussed below. Framing problems and a nalysis. Resilience thinking offers alternative analytical methods to planning practice s b y the manner in which it conceptualizes the human nature relation and dynamics of system change (Wilkinson, 2012). It can be employed as a broad framing device to systematically document and analyze the complexities in systems (Wilkinson, 2010). Evolving resilience assessment methods in the SES field will be helpful in the se methods provide an understanding of how cross scale impacts reverberate across social ecological systems in unpredictable ways (Davoudi, 2012). R esilience offers new routes to framing deeper system issues and bringing them into a planning agenda b y showing ways t o unravel the linkages between socioeconomic, ecological, cultural and political phenomena in a more transparent and coherent manner and by providing an understanding of places as complex interconnected socio spatial systems with extensive and unpredictabl e feedback processes which operate at multiple scales and timeframes (Davoudi, 2012; Porter, 2012). Problem solving and decision making. In general, resilience thinking challenges ew the development process as a dynamic flow instead of aiming to reach a static state. Conventionally, planning approaches aim for the maintenance of an optimal stable

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63 condition, particularly while addressing surprises and disturbances. Resilience thinkin g compel planners to explore adaptive and transformative possibilities and embrace surprises and changes by showing how disturbances can become sources of innovation (Goldstein, 2009; Davoudi, 2012). However, this possibility is greatly influenced by how resilience is interpreted in planning. The two resilience interpretations and related planning approache s, as and W hite (2014), are discussed below. Equilibrium r esilience approach. This approach accepts the status quo and promotes reactive responses to risk. It aims to increase the ability to absorb shocks and a previous normal state. It promotes vertical integration. In the disaster management and emergency respon se field, planning has predominantly accepted the equilibrium approach. As a result, a sequence of response, recovery, mitigation, and preparedness phases is adopted in planning. This approach does not challenge the existing governance systems, planning fr ameworks, and practices but instead operates within them. Though this approach can be effective at a small scale, it is considered in adequate for deal ing with complexities. Simply returning to a previous position may benefit one sector or group at the expe nse of another. A focus on returning to a fixed equilibrium may be resilient in the short term but may have the opposite effect over a longer time period. Evolutionary r esilience approach. This approach, also considered proactive resilience, recognizes multiple equilibria. Transformability is the key to this approach. This approach challenges existing practices and decision making processes and seeks a new normality It encourages horizontal integration across sectors. One of the challenges in

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64 adopting the evolutionary resilience approach in practice is the need to influence the existing institutional and power arrangements. Attributes of resilient systems. With the above understanding of the potential of resilience thinking in planning and in associated challenges, the next logical step is to look for empirical applications. Although the importance of resilience thinking is recognized in planning, there are not many documented studies available where a social ecological resilience approach has informed an ongoing planning process. There are very few publications that address how a resilience approach to planning might be pursued in practice (Wilkinson, 2012; Ahern, 2011). On the other hand, analyses of attributes of resilient systems from planning perspectives are beginning to emerge. Such works focus mainly on cities and attempt to identify elements and processes that have the capacity to enhance the resilien ce of cities (Desouza & Flanery 2014). However, there is still much empirical work to be done on how professionals can best learn about resilience and how resilience can be operationalized (Wilkinson, 2011). Emerging Issues: More Rhetorical Than Practical The recent resilience turn in policy and planning practice has attempted to address a wide range of contemporary concerns. However, this rapid emergence reflects confidence more than practical change Whilst academic literature and theories promise that resilience may hold transformative potential, this expectation rarely appears to be met in the realities of planning ( Coaffee, 2013 ). Many possible reasons are identifi ed for the non realization of the potential of resilience concepts in planning. Primarily, planners, engaged in works

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65 assigned by governmental agencies and working within their comfort zone with restricted time, tend to focus on the predefined goals of the agencies while developing planning strategies ( ). Instead they need to critically reflect on the policies and context and interpret resilience in the local context. Water Issues and the Social Ecological System Approach Conventional technological approaches to water management, adopted in the last century, have resulted in a multitude of environmental and social problems. This indicates that issues related to the water supply for human use are not just related to water availability al one. Water is an important element in shaping landscapes and human settlements. Water as a resource is closely interconnected with characteristics of society and inextricably linked to energy and food systems as well. Such complexities associated with wa ter are discussed below to highlight the relevance of the SES approach to water planning and management. This section begins with a brief review of the role of water in human settlement development and planning and problems with a conventional technologic al approach. Then, the complexities associate d with water resources and its planning are demonstrated by discussing the water energy food nexus and interaction between water, society and ecosystems. Water and Human Settlements P lanning Historically, civili zations flourished along water sources and human settlements were formed around water resources for carrying out agricultural activities. Subsequently, the knowledge and ability to move water through gravitational power allowed cities to grow. The success of most ancient civilizations in different countries, such as China, India

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66 and Central America, has rested on their ability to manage water, and the demise of several civilizations, such as Peru and Mesopotamia, has been traced directly to the failed manag ement of their regional water problems (Lund, 2006). With the advent of technology, modern societies began to control water on a massive scale by constructing reservoirs, dams and canals. Although fundamental to human welfare, in the last century, these water related issues seldom played a major role in guiding urban development (Ridgely, 1984). Development of modern planning methods in the US indicate that while transportation planning and economic development influenced land use plan ning and urban form to a large extent, water planning has been subordinated to land use planning. To illustrate this, based on Rodrig et al. ( 2009) and Newman (1999) an account of how the development of urban form, transportation systems and water infrastruc tures influenced each other is provided below. In the walking horse car era (1880 1890) urban densities were high and all economic activities were concentrated in a central node. Thus, in a 19 th century walking city, the water supply and treatment was localized. In the Streetcar era (1890 1920) urban mass transportation system s enabled cities to expand along main transit lines. Big pipes were placed along linear transit corridors to bring water and to remove waste water. In a 19 th century transit city, quantities of water and waste were generally well within the surrounding capa cities. In the following automobile era, cities expanded radially promoting suburban development. Transport infrastructures in the form of highways and ring roads supported the emergence of several sub centers. In these cities, water infrastructure develo pment was similar to a transit c it y In the process of making growth and land use decisions, planners

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67 safely assumed that water would be available for all future needs i.e. water planning was subordinated to land use planning (Coulson, 2005). Limited wate r supplies were not considered a constraint to development (Bates, 2011) and the role of water planners was to obtain water to meet the demands of expected population growth. However, large sprawling 20th century auto cities have far exceeded local capaci ties, resulting in unprecedented environmental degradation. The emphasis on technological approaches and subordinating water supply to land use planning have broad and severe consequences (Coulson, 2005). In arid regions, existing land uses and resulting water consumption deplete limited water supplies. In such situations, augmenting water to meet urban demand results in high social, environmental, and economic costs. Though these issues are more prominent in arid regions, gradually they are extending to o ther regions that have never before experienced water shortages. Therefore, a more socially sensitive, economically efficient and environmentally responsible water management system (Newman, 1999) that recognizes the complex interaction between social and ecological systems is required. The Water Food Energy Nexus The fundamental resources for the functioning of society are water, food and energy. Rapidly increasing population growth is placing unrelenting pressure on these three resources. They are tightly interconnected and interdependent and they share many similar characteristics, such as rapidly growing global demand, resource constraints, and variations in regional availabilities and supply (ESCAP, 2013). Water is required for both energy and fo od production. Energy is needed to transport food and in some region s, to transport water to produce food. Crops can themselves be used to produce biofuels.

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68 Consequently, action on one resource may have impacts on the other and it may result in negative o r uncertain trade offs. For example, extensive ground water pumping, proliferation of desalination plants and inter basin water transfers to deal with water scarcity may have perverse impact s on energy consumption and the ecosystem. Currently, there is on ly a rudimentary understanding of the complex and pervasive connections between water, food and energy security at different scales (ESCAP, 2013). The required finer scale understanding of the interconnections between water, food and energy and their uses can be obtained through SES analysis approaches. Water, Society and Ecosystems Ensuring the supply of the right amount of water to the right place at the right time to maintain human activities without environmental damage is an immense challenge facing ou r societies b ecause, in many regions, there is either too little or too much water in different seasons. To ensure an adequate supply of water, a traditional engineering approach considers the availability of water resources in quantitative physical terms. As a result, water scarcity in a region is defined largely in physical terms. However, lately, a change to this method is advocated for Turton & Ohlsson (1999) proposed that the capacity o f a society to cope and adapt to resource scarcity should also be regarded as a resource. With this notion, they distinguished between first order scarcity of natural resources and a second order scarcity of social resources. Thus, a society that is u nable to cope with first order scarcity of water is subject to second order scarcity. This concept acknowledges the importance of capacity in dealing with water issues. Inc lusion of social capacity as a resource leads to a

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69 fundamentally different approach to water management and provides more innovative opportunities. However, a society that shows great ability to cope with and adapt to changes may affect the capacity of eco systems in the process of adaptation. For instance, technological advancements in the last century increased water abstraction and consumption of water and disturbed water systems in various ways on a wide range of scales. Mostly, it resulted in many unint ended and undesirable outcomes altering the natural hydrologic cycle and affecting the availability and quality of water. Due to the water issues associated with environmental, social and economic dimensions, an approach that pays attention to human and ecological concerns needs to be adopted while planning for water. The interaction between water, society and ecosystems and the water energy food nexus clearly illustrate the complexities associated with water issues. Therefore, when investigating issue s associated with water and development, it is vital to recognize and take into account the multi functional role of water resources and the complex interconnection. By recognizing the complexities and dynamics of SESs, resilience concepts have the potenti al to inform analysis of water issues and planning strategies. Conclusion This chapter first reviewed the basic concepts and analysis methods in the social ecological resilience literature and Social Ecological Systems Frameworks (SESF). Next, the potentia l of the SES concepts and analysis method in addressing issues in planning practice and theory were presented. Finally, the need to adopt SES perspective in water management and planning was established by discussing the complex interconnection between wat er, energy, food, society and ecosystem s

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70 This chapter provided the context for the next chapter that reviews literature on determinants of SES responses to disturbances and characteristics of system changes.

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71 CHAPTER III THEORETICAL BACKGROUND SYSTEM CHANGES: DISTU RBANCES, RESPONSES, AND OUTCOME Introduction To establish the need for suitability of and benefits of adopting the Social Ecological System (SES) approach in planning, particularly in the analysis of water and urban development issues, concepts and analysis frameworks related to the social ecological system (SES) were reviewed in the previ ous chapter. This chapter focuses on SES dynamics and specific variables in a n SES that need to be considered in the analysis of system changes. Social ecological systems (SESs) change and evolve over time in response to disturbances. When a n SES, for exa mple a household, community or nation, responds to a suite of interacting drivers of changes, it may produce many different outcomes. In this process, some components of the system may persist, and the others may transform or degrade. Responses of a n SES its adaptive capacity. SESs respond differently to different responses, as not all disturbances affect the systems in the same way. The system changes as outcomes depend on both the critical pr operties of the system and the nature of disturbances. Thus, the characteristics of the system, interactions between the system and disturbances, and the direction and nature of changes are essential components of analysis of system changes. Planning proce sses, through which we aim to construct our future, need to understand and manage the dynamics of system change. Since it has been increasingly

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72 recognized that past experiences alone are not sufficient for project ing the future in planning process, planner s cannot act based on the assumption that the future world will behave in the same way it behaved in the past (Chapin et al 2009). W hen a n SES is subjected to change, it can either maintain the existing system and process or create a fundamentally new sy stem or process. Hence, to plan for the future, it is essential to find answers to questions such as the following: h ow do the disturbances and conditions of change enhance or limit the capacity of a system, such as a household or community or region, to a dapt? What strategic options are available to a system to support its response to disturbances? What properties of a system enable these options? What is the trade off in this process? More importantly, how can this knowledge be incorporated into the plann ing, development and governance of SESs? Comprehensive understanding and methods of analysis of disturbances, responses and outcomes in a n SES, will provide policy makers and planners with the ability to understand the trajectories of system changes and co nstruct plausible future scenarios under uncertainty. With this understanding, in this chapter, the characteristics and typology of disturbances are discussed first Then, the system responses and determinants of system responses are presented. Next, possi ble outcomes are discussed with a focus on system transformation. Finally, how the knowledge of system changes help s planners in addressing uncertainty about the future is explored. Disturbances While analyzing SESs as dynamic systems and their responses and change s over time, often, the concept of disturbance and what is considered a disturbance is not clearly articulated in the SES literature (Schoon & Cox, 2011). Disturbances, perturbations,

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73 stressors, and pressures are the different terms us ed in the literature to denote whatever happens to change or impact a system for a particular study. Disturbance is defined as a relatively discrete event that disrupts social or ecological communities and results in changes to their physical or social env i ronment (Fleischman et al., 2010 ). Since SESs respond differently to diverse disturbances and the system changes are generated by interactions between disturbances and systems, systematic classification of disturbances will be helpful in the fine grained understanding of changes and responses in SESs. The concept of disturbances to SESs, the typology of disturbances, and interactions between disturbances and SESs are discussed in this section. Types of Disturbances Disturbance typologies have developed re cently in the SES literature, as there is a growing recognition that understanding the characteristics of disturbances is essential for a precise understanding of system responses and changes. One approach to disturbance classification is based on the attr ibutes of the disturbance such as intensity and frequency. Another disturbance classification was developed with the consideration that a n SES is made up of interacting components and disturbances can occur due to changes within a system or from an externa l system. The two disturbance classification systems are discussed below. Classification b ased on a ttributes of d isturbances. An early classification of attributes of environmental change was created by Wholey and Brittain (1989) to understand how firms re acts to major changes in a business environment. In this classification, environmental variation is conceptualized as a wave function, characterized by frequency (how often the change occurs), amplitude (measure of magnitude) and

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74 predictability (foreseeabl e portion of change) components. Since the notion of predictability may involve subjective perceptions and projections, it was replaced with two other measures : speed (rate of change of the disturbance) and scope (number of environmental dimensions that ar e affected by simultaneous disturbances) by Suraz and Oliva (2005). Borrowing the above concepts from organizational ecology and organizational theories on environmental changes, Geels et al. (2007) differentiated between the following five types of distu rbances or environmental changes based on the four dimensions described above: Regular, H y perturbulence, Specific shock, disruptive, and avalanche. The dimensions of some of the disturbances are presented here. When all four attributes, frequency, amplitu de, speed and scope, are low, it is considered a regular change. Rapid, high intensity and rare changes are specific shocks. A specific shock may dissipate and disappear after a while, returning to base line, or it may lead to a structural stepwise change. Infrequent, high intensity, and gradual changes that affect any one dimension of the system are a d isruptive change In this classification, predictability as an attribute of environmental change has been omitted to include more quantifiable attributes. However, though a subjective variable, predictability is an important dimension of disturbances, as societal responses va ry according to the predicted disturbance. Classification considering changes within and from outside the system. Schoon and Cox (2011) developed a typology of disturbances, based on fluctuations in the flow and parameters in the systems and changes in the connectivity within or between systems. The disturbance types are:

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75 F low disturbance : Transfer of a social or biophysical quantity across the boundary of a n SES P arameter disturbance : Changes in variable s internal to a SES N etwork disturbance : Alteration in the biophysical or social network structure of a n SES such as the addition or removal of a node or link. C onnectivity disturbance : Alteration in the connectivity between an SES and nodes or actors in an external system. The scale of analysis is import ant in this typology, because connectivity disturbances at one scale may be considered network disturbances in another. Incidences of disturbances in a SES. As a further step in the analysis process Schoon and Cox (2011) also explored the possible interac tion points between different types of disturbances and various components of a n SES, using the Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) developed by Ostrom (2007, 2009). According to this analysis, parameter and network disturbances can occur in a socia l system or an ecological system within a n SES, whereas flow and connectivity disturbances occur between a n SES and an external social or ecological system. By combining the attribute variation in disturbances (Geels et al., 2007) with the classification o f disturbance s (Schoon & Cox, 2011), a fine grained understanding of disturbances can be gained. Additionally, incorporating the disturbances classification and analyzing the interactions between a specific SES property and a specific type of disturbance w ill contribute towards generalizing findings on the interaction between disturbances and SES responses (Schoon & Cox, 2011).

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76 System Responses SESs are subjected to disturbances and changes. Different disturbances affect a system differently ; as a result, a system does not respond the same to all disturbances. Social responses to disturbances differ from biophysical responses. Biophysical systems respond through selective pressure i.e. aspects of a system that fail cease to exist and those th at work remain ( Fleischman, 2010 ) In social systems, humans, to some extent, have the capacity to plan, anticipate, and consciously create their social and physical surroundings. Social Responses are behavioral, institutional, or technical strategies th at people make to deal with, or in anticipation of, problems or changes in complex systems (Fleischman et al., 2010). There are many fundamental aspects to consider in the analysis of social responses to disturbances: h ow do systems, particularly social systems, respond to different disturbances? Is a response appropriate for a particular disturbance? What are the factors that influence the choice of responses? What is the trade off? What are the different system properties that enable a n SES to respon d? To get a perspective on these aspects of responses, this section reviews the concepts related to social responses, particularly adaptation and adaptive capacity. Response and Response Capacity Definition. Responses are actions and events that occur in reaction t o disturbances (Fleischman, 2010 community, or individual to tackle or manage disturbance and change, in anticipation of & Adger, 2005).

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77 Aspects of r esponses. There is heterogeneity in human decisions and action. As a result, all actors in a system do not respond in the same way to challenges, opportunities, and risks. Such response diversity i.e. range, prevalence, and spatial and temporal distributions of different responses, is crucial to the resilience or the transformation of a social e cological system. (Leslie & McCabe or adaptive in its characte ristics. Coping responses may reduce risk at short or immediate timescales but may cause an increase in exposure to long term risks. Adaptive responses, in contrast, aim to promot e long term benefits. The set of options available to actors in a system is bounded by a response space. The boundary conditions for a response space are defined by the available options, and the willingness and capacity of the actors to adopt the available options and possibly drive responses to change through the creation of response capacity and the implementation of response actions (Tompkins & Adger 2005). The response space can be increased or decreased by modifying the two boundary conditions through investment in technology and societal changes. Within the response spaces, individuals and communities choose their pathways based on their levels of autonomy and with various implicit and explicit objectives in mind. Response c apacity. The term Response capacity describes the ability to manage both the causes of environmental change and the consequences of that change (Tompkins & Adger, 2005; IPCC, 2007). In climate change literature, adaptive and mitigative capacities are considered as the two conceptual components of response capacity. Specific adaptation and mitigation measures are rooted in their respective capacities. Though adaptive and mitig ative capacities are driven by mostly similar sets of factors, adaptive

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78 capacities refer to a slightly broader and more general set of capabilities than mitigative capacities (IPCC, 2007). Determinants of adaptive capacity are highly location specific; hen ce, there is a need to investigate micro and macro scale determinants that influence adaptive capacity across multiple stressors (Yohe & Tol, 2002). The concepts of adaptation and adaptive capacities are discussed in detail in the following section. Adap tation The term Adaptation has been used frequently in the context of climate change in recent times. However, the concept of adaptation has a long history in other fields, as adaptation to minimize adverse consequences of environmental change and to ta ke advantage of new opportunities has existed since the beginning of life (Smithers & Smit, 1997; Schipper, 2007). Many other disciplines, such as anthropology, biology, ecology, geography, political ecology, and psychology, have employed the concept of ad aptation and analyzed the adaptation process from different perspectives. This review focuses on adaptations undertaken by humans to the observed or expected socio ecological economic changes. It begins with the definition of adaptation. Then, the typolog y of adaptation is discussed. It ends with an overview of adaptation practices in agricultural sectors to gain perspective on responses to water transfer in the chosen case study areas. Definition. Adaptation, in the context of human dimensions of global c hange, refers to a process or action in a system, for example household, community, group, sector, region, or country, in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some

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79 changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity (Smit & W andel 2006). Adaptation refers to both the process of adapting and the condition of being adapted. Types of a daptation. Humans have undertaken a wide range of actions for centuries in the face of change. These adaptation actions are categorized in the literature based on different measures such as timing, intent, scale, and forms (Smit & Wandel 1999). More recently, other characteristics are used as a basis for classifying adaptation actions, viz., degree of change, flow of benefits, and levels of acti on or implementation. Such a theoretical categorization of adaptation actions in the literature helps us to understand the different characteristics and process of adaptations. A summary of adaptations typology based on Burton et al., (1993) and Biagini et al. (2014) is presented below. Timing. Based on timing, adaptation is categorized into reactive, concurrent and anticipatory. Reactive or ex post adaptation takes place after the impacts of change become apparent. Anticipatory or ex ante adaptation occurs in response to an expected change or before the impacts of change are observed. Concurrent adaptation occurs during the change process. Adaptation in ecosystems is mostly reactive, whereas human adaptation can be both reactive and anticipatory. Purposefu lness or i ntent. Depending on the degree of spontaneity adaptation can either be autonomous or planned. Smith et al. (1996) described autonomous adaptations as those that occur naturally without interventions by public agencies and planned adaptations as intervention strategies since they are the result of deliberate policy decisions. Autonomous adaptation actions are t aken independently by communities, organizations and individuals based on their perception of actual or anticipated changes. Planned

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80 anticipatory adaptation actions are developed, mostly, through a top down approach, through regulations, standards, and inv estment schemes. The need for planned anticipatory adaptation can be assessed keeping autonomous adaptation as a baseline (IPCC, 2001). Behavioral choice or o ption. Based on the available options, adaptations can be taken up to prevent loss, tolerate loss, spread or share loss, change use or activity, change location, or restore an original state (Burton et al., 1993). Based on the same criteria, Bijlsma et al. (1996) suggested the following three categories to classify adaptation actions: retreat, accom modate, or protect. The UK Climate Impacts Program (2005) uses four categories to classify adaptation forms, namely living with risks and bearing the losses, preventing effects by reducing exposure, sharing responsibility through efforts like insurance pro grams, or exploiting opportunities (UKCIP, 2005; Biesbroek et al., 2010). Spatial scale and t emporal s cope Decisions regarding adaptations can be undertaken at any of the several spatial scales such as local, regional and national. Based on a time frame adaptation strategies are classified as long range, tactical, contingency and analytical (Carter et al., 1994). Adaptation as i nvestment. Considering adaptation as an investment and based on the benefits received, adaptation actions are categorized into fl ow adaptation and stock adaptation. If benefits occur only while the investment is made in an adaptation action, then it is known as flow adaptation. Stock adaptation refers to actions when the benefits continue into the future after the investment (Biagin i et al., 2014). Levels of action or implementation. Based on the intention and level of implementation, adaption activities are categorized into recognition, ground work, or adaptation action (Lesnikowski et al., 2013; Biagini et al. 2014). Recognition activities

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81 indicate awareness but do not involve any action. Ground work activities refer to initial actions such as assessment, research, and development of conceptual tools. Adaptation actions denote tangible actions including finan cial support, legislative change, and program or policy evaluation. First and second order adaptation. The concept of first and second order adaptation is proposed by Birkmann (2011) to enhance understanding of the adaptation process. First order adaptatio ns are the strategies and measures developed and adapted by households, communities, or societies in response to actual or expected change in the system. First order adaptations can be autonomous or planned. They may result in certain consequences, not onl y for the people and communities that are exposed to change and benefit from first order adaptation but for other people and communities as well. Second order adaptations are strategies and measures that are needed by households, communities, and societie s to adjust to the direct and indirect consequences of the first order adaptation. For example, when relocation is implemented as an adaptation measure, additional adaption processes are needed with regard to livelihoods, social networks, and mobility patt erns. These are one kind of secondary adaptation. Similarly, dams at upstream as a flood protection measure might affect households and communities downstream, and it might be required to take measures to adjust to the changes caused by the dam. This is an example of secondary adaptation needed and also illustrates the links in a social ecological system. Based on d egree of change. Based on the effect of the adaptation actions on the system, i.e. the nature of change brought about by adaptation, two broad categories of

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82 adaptation are identified. They are Resilience and Transformation. Resilience theory considers transformation a subset of resilience. Resilience: Adaptation practices that aim to build resilience in the face of changing conditions pursue actions that allow the existing functions and practices to persist. In addition, changes are carried out only to allow continuation of system functions into the future. Transformation: Actions that aim towards a future state that is fundamentally different from the existing one are known as transformational adaptation. Forms of adaptation. Adaptation takes various forms. Smit et al., (2007) identified the following forms: Structural, Legal, Institutional, Regulatory, Financial, and Technological. Biagini et al. (2014) expanded this theoretical classification to include other forms such as behavioral, educational, market mechanisms, managerial, political, research and development, practical, and regulatory. In addition to this theoretical classification of adaptation actions, Biagini et al. (2014) developed an adaptation typology by examining actual adaptation projects. It consists of the following ten categories of action: capacity building, management and planning, practice or behavior, policy, information physical infrastructure, warning or observing systems, green infrastructure, financing and technology. There are many other adaptation typologies developed based on different criteria such as driver s of action. Differences in characteristics of adaptatio n actions in different countries are analyzed as well. The adaptations in low income countries tend to be reactive, whereas in high income countries the actions are proactive. However, in the real world the line between different forms of adaptation is no t clearly defined. Often a combination of

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83 different approaches is adapted and they could be classified under more than one category. Thus, within a wide range of adaptation, there are different forms of adaptation in overlapping categories. Adaptation in the a griculture sector This section briefly reviews types of adaptations to water scarcity in the agriculture sector to understand the diverse forms of adaptations and the decision processes involved. This compilation of adaptation actions was carried out to enable the identification of strategies in the case study. Adaptation p ractices A number of s tudies summarize specific options for adaptation to water scarcity in the agricultural sector mainly focusing on short term tactical decisions. Smit et al. (2000 ) grouped adaptations options in the agricultural sector into four categories, Technological de velopments, Government programs and insurance, Farm production practices, and Farm financial management. The m ain adaptation s in the agricultural sector include crop diversification, mixed crop livestock farming systems, using different crop varieties, c hanging planting and harvesting dates, drought resistant varieties and high yield water sensitive crops, improved irrigation practices, and alternate sources of water (Bradshaw et al., 2004). These measures mainly aim to improve the agricultural yield. Dif ferent adaptation measures are taken up based on farm types and locations, and the economic, political and institutional circumstances. In reality, some of these measures considered as adaptation options by individual farmers could be a mal adaptation from a regional perspective (Panda, 2012). For example, over extraction of groundwater for irrigation may result in a declining water table and saline water intrusion in coastal regions.

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84 Some farmers also might adapt measures to diversify their income that enables them to depend less on agriculture. These adaptations are outside the agriculture sector. While such measures may help the farmers to face the changing conditions and maintain their livelihood, they may also decrease regional agricultural productivity. Such non agricultural diversification may also lead to transformation of SESs. Adaptive Capac ity Adaptive capac ity indicates the ability of a system to adjust, modify or change its characteristics or actions to lessen potential damage, take advantage of opportunities or cope with the consequences of shock or stress (Brooks, 2003). It is through adaptive capacity that individuals, communities, or systems are able to withstand external disturbances such as droughts. Thus, adaptive capacity describes the necessary preconditions for adapting to change (Adger et al., 2005). Adaptations are manifestations of adaptive capacity. However, whether suc h adaptive capacity is drawn upon to bring about adaptation or not depends on a range of uncertain variables. The a daptive capacity of a social system provides an understanding of the processes through which the system is enabled to respond to change. Cons equently, it supports the disturbances. There are varying definition s and practical applications of the term adaptive capacity. Collocated Adaptive capacity incl udes the ability to maintain existing conditions and transform to a new improved state as well. As an attribute of a complex system, adaptive capacity is dependent on a range of social, cultural, political and economic variables. Understanding of adaptive capacity is considered to still be in its infancy and

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85 there is no definite consensus about a generic set of the determinants of adaptive capacity at different scales (Vincent, 2007; Jones 2012). Hence, considerable attention has been devoted to the identi fication of determinants of adaptive capacity by researchers. New insights are constantly evolving in the adaptive capacity literature to identify both generic and specific determinants of adaptive capacity. Though most of the discussion on adaptive capac ities is found in the context of climate change, it can be extended to study adaptive capacity in other contexts such as the implementation of development project s (Jones, 2012). Different A pproac hes to S tudy Adaptive Capacity The conceptualization of determinants of adaptive capacity in the literature focuses on two broad categories of variables. The first category of variables is grouped together as assets and capitals. Assets of an individual or community or household or nation are the resources ava ilable to cope with or adapt to changes. They include assets based elements such as human, physical, natural, social, and financial capital. This asset oriented approach looks at what a system has that supports adaptation (WRI, 2009). The second category o f variables include s intangible processes and functions such as decision making and governance, institutions and entitlements. This process oriented approach focuses on what a system does to enable adaptation (WRI, 2009). More recently, recognizing the im portance of both the asset based elements and the intangible dynamic processes in determining adaptive capacity, particularly at the local level, analysis methods incorporating both asset and process based elements have been developed (Jones, 2012). The r oles of various elements in determining adaptive capacity are discussed below. Asset Based Elements

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86 The asset based approach to adaptive capacity considers the following five categories of capital, on which livelihoods are built as determinants of adapti ve capacity: human, physical, natural, social and financial capital. This includes capital assets of individuals, households, communities, or groups. Availability and access to appropriate assets influence the ability of a system to cope with or adapt to c hanges. In conventional economics, assets are known as factors of production. They are typically subdivided into land (natural capital), labor (human capital) and capital (physical and financial capital). Social capital that is not included as a convention al asset is discussed below. Social capital. Social capital refers to the connections among individuals, i.e. social networks, and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them (Putnam, 2000). Social capital allows citizens to resolve collective problems more easily. The networks serve as channels for the flow of helpful information in a social system Putnam (2002) distinguished between bridging and bonding social capital. Bridging social capital as bonds of connectedness is formed a cross diverse social groups, whereas Trust, civic engagement, and community involvement are used to measure social capital in a society. The World Bank (2011) lists the following five dimensions for measuring Social capital: Trust, Collective action, Social inclusion, Groups and networks, and Information and Communication. As all these dimensions mutually influence each other, examining one dimension without the others is considered inadequate. Howe ver, contextual variations need to be considered in the analysis of social capital. For example, communities in developing countries, rural areas in particular, often lack substantial

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87 numbers of formal organizations. In such contexts, it is important to co nsider other forms of informal social interaction, such as networks consisting of family and friends and informal community wide activities, as indicators of networks (Krishna, 2002). Process Based Elements The process based approach capture s the dynamic processes underpinning adaptive capacity. Chapin et al. (2006) identify social networks, institutions, and entitlements that govern how assets are distributed and used as determ inants of adaptive capacity. Ens or (2011) recognizes the following processes as areas of action to build adaptive capacity: power sharing arrangements that influence decision making; processes that give rise to the knowledge and information; and the availability of experimentation and testing of the a daptation options. J ones (2012) identif ies the following characteristics in addition to assets as determinants: Institutions and entitlements, Knowledge and information, Innova tion, and Flexible forward looking decision making. The processes are interdependent and overlap wi th asset based determinants. For instance, it is possible to include knowledge under human capital and local institutions under social capital. Various processes and how their characteristics contribute to adaptive capacity in social systems are discussed below. Institutions and g overnance. The importance of institutions and governance mechanisms in building adaptive capacity has been widely recognized in the literature (Adger, 2005; Nelson et al. 2007) Institutions and governance are interlinked. Institu tions are defined as the formal legal rules and informal social norms that govern the behavior and shape how individuals and organizations interact (Ostrom, 1990; North, 1990). Governance is considered a broader subject matter. As the UNDP (1997) states,

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88 policies and actions with which natural resources are managed, as well as the networks of influence beyond just government, such as civil society, private sector a ctors, and non institutional and governance determinants and indicators of adaptive capacity in different social ecological systems (Folke et al., 2005; Gupta et al., 2010; Pelling & High, 2005). Characteristics of institutions and governance that build and mobilize adaptive capacity are discussed below. Institutions. North (1990) described institutions as the rules that govern the behavior of actors. They are characterized by rules, norms and cultural beliefs, and have formal or informal forms. The adaptive capacity of countries, communities and individuals are influe nced by the characteristics of institutions and how they structure power, rights, and entitlements at multiple levels of governance (Berman et al., 2012). The ability of individual s and communities to adapt is substantially influenced by institutions becau se, by and large, informal local institutions determine access to resources and the sharing of knowledge and information in a community. Similarly, behavioral norms influence how an individual react s and respond s to disturbances. Institutions also link loc al systems to larger spatial systems (Agrawal, 2008). The dimensions of institutional environment s that support adaptive capacity are: fair and equitable opportunity to access resources ; participation in decision making; how institutions empower or disemp ower people ; the extent to which individuals, groups and communities have the right to be heard; and the capacity of institu tions themselves to be

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89 flexible. (Jones 2012). Countries with well developed social institutions are considered to have a greater adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007 ). Governance. Governance is viewed as the processes involved in decision making. The processes of making and setting rules and institu tions that take into account the different actors and networks that negotiate acceptable positions in balancing trade offs in policy and its instruments is considered as g overnance (Pahl Wostl et al., 2008 ). The concept of governance gained importance wi th the growing realization that social and environmental problems cannot be addressed either by the state or by civil society alone. Many components of good governance have been identified in the literature such as accountability, transparency, participation, and justice. However, gradually, the focus of studies on governance characteristics is moving away from identifying attributes of good governance, with an understanding that attributes of good governance cannot always be applied in all situations, as it varies with the political, cultural and geographical characteristics across countries. Currently, the emphasis is on framing govern ance analysis within the context of local conditions (Hill, 2013). Accordingly, the manner in which governance systems provide a balance of power between different formal and informal state and society interactions, the role of civil society and policy ne tworks, and the issues of fit, interaction and compatibility are given attention in governance analysis (Hill, 2013). Power sharing. Power inequalities exist in all societies, and how they influence decision making processes affect s the adaptive capacit y of individuals and communities. Thus, power relation s behind decision making are an important consideration in institution and governance analysis and an essential step in addressing adaptive capacity. Bridging organizations that link local communities w ith actors at other scales are found to facilitate

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90 power sharing. Similarly, leaders with an ability to build trust between diverse actors and shape changes in organizations enable power sharing. Knowledge and information. Information is organized data. It is used for communicating and reporting on the world. Communities need both formal information provided by state and informal information which is locally generated and exchanged. Knowledge implies the ability to use information and learning. Thus, k nowledge makes information useful. Knowledge and information are important determinants of adaptive capacity, as they are required in order to make informed decisions, respond to external shocks and stresses, and to plan for future changes. The manner in which a social system generates, col lects, analy z es and disseminates knowledge is linked with institutional arrangements and governance mechanisms (Jones, 2012). Innovation. Successful application of knowledge to achieve a positive change is considered innovation ( Olsson, & Galaz, 2012 ). It requires all kinds of knowledge. Social innovation includes new technology, strategies, concepts, ideas, institutions, and organizations that enhance the capacity of a system and is considered a combination of hardw are, soft ware, and orgware (Smit & Skinner 2002). Hardware relates to the material equipment required, software concerns the knowledge and orgware refers to the organizational and institutional g of an innovation. Innovations are promoted by bridging ties, the external connections to different groups, as they bring new ideas into their group, whereas the adoption of the innovation requires bonding, strong bonds and trust among members (Putnam 2001). Social l earning. In the Social Ecological Systems literature, learning has emerged as a dominant theme (Berkes et al., 2003). The c apacity to learn together and respond to

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91 changing circumstance s is considered essential for the survival of systems. Researchers have defined social learning in multiple, overlapping ways. In the context of resource democratically adapts its core institutions to cope with so cial ecological changes in ways Argyris (1999) identified the following multiple levels of learning and feedback in a social system: single loop learning (correcting errors f rom routines), double loop (correcting errors by adjusting values and policies) and triple loop learning (designing governance norms and protocols). Single loop learning typically involves the identification of alternative strategies and actions, for exam ple harvesting techniques, to resolve specific problem s and improve certain outcomes such as higher yields. Double loop learning occurs when existing values are challenged. Institutional and organization frameworks that encourage double loop learning are c haracterized by trust building efforts, a willingness to take risks in order to extend learning opportunities, transparency, active engagement with civil society, and a high degree of citizen participation (Armitage et al., 2008). The understanding of mul tiple loop learning concepts and characteristics that encourage learning in a social system is helpful in finding if and how social learning occurs in a system and its outcomes. Reed et al. (2010) point out that often the concept of social learning is conf used with the conditions and methods necessary to facilitate social learning. For example, participatory processes are found to stimulate and facilitate social learning, but it cannot be assumed that participation inevitably indicates the occurrence of so cial learning. On the contrary, social learning may take place in the absence of any planned participatory process

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92 (Reed et al., 2010). This stresses the need to distinguish social learning as a concept from the conditions or the methods that may facilitat e social learning. Determina nts at Different Scales: Cross Scale I nteractions Scale is an important issue in the assessment of adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity can be assessed at a range of scales, from the individual, household and community levels t o a national scale. The determinants of adaptive capacity manifest themselves differently depending on the scale. Therefore analysis of the determinants at a specified scale is essential. Until recently, studies on the determinants of adaptive capacity focused on the national scale and on asset and capitals. Currently the focus has shifted from the national to individual and community scale s The determinants of adaptive capacity at different scales are not independen t from each other but interact and combine in unique ways in different scales ( Adger &Vincent, 2005 ). Adaptive capacity of individuals is partly determined by individual characteristics and often shaped by community norms as well (Marshall, 2010). At the s ame time, the knowledge of the adaptive capacity of individuals provides some insight into the adaptive capacity of communities and larger social systems. Hence, it is important to recognize cross scale interactions and analyze adaptive capacity at diffe rent scales, i.e. the individual, community and national level s The determinants of adaptive capacity at national, community and individual levels are discussed below. Primarily it discusses the adaptive capacity of natural resource dependent communit ies and individuals. Adaptive capacity at n ational level National adaptive capacity is usually related to economic wealth, health, education, access to information, environmental capacity, and

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93 political system s in place. However, nations with a high adaptive capacity may have regions and individuals with very little adaptive capacity. Community adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity determinants at a community level provide valuable information about the likely response s of communities to change ( Marshall et al., 2010). The following features in the social domain are identified to provide communities with the capacity to adapt: Leadership and vision, Knowledge networks, High level s of motivation in all role players, Availability of financial or technological options, Existence or development of a polycentric institution, Existence of enabling policies, Diversification, Local empowerment of change, capacity to learn, capacity to re organize, Community assets cultural, political, institutional and economic flexibility, Gender relations, Environmental institutions and social norms, Culture of corruption, and Markets (Fabricius et al., 2007; Marshall et al., 2010). The community adaptive capacity could be assessed by a range of methods, such as analysis of census information and regional plans, surveys of key informants from research organizations, NGOs, indigenous groups and th e general public, government, and business. Individual adaptive c apacity. The capacity of individuals to cope with and adapt to change is determined by both individual characteristics and community norms. The key characteristics that can be used to evalua te the adaptive capacity of individuals are: Perception of change and risk, Ability to cope with change, Level of interest in change, Ability to plan, learn, reorganize, Attachment to occupation, Employability, Family characteristics, Attachment to place, Business size and approach Financial status, access to credit, Income diversity, Local environmental knowledge, Environmental awareness, attitudes and beliefs, Access to technology, information and skills, Formal and informal

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94 networks, and Perception o f equity in accessing the resource (Marshall et al, 2009). Social surveys are the predominant method of assess ing an change, and both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed. When communities depend on natural re sources in SESs, the resource dependency or co dependency between humans and the ecosystem influence both individual and community adaptive capacity. These two determinants that are unique to individual adaptive capacity are discussed below. Resource d epen dence Resource dependency describes the nature and magnitude of the sensitivity of resource users to changes in resource condition or access. The changes could be a result of climate change, environmental degradation, or changes in regulatory policies. Resource dependency has traditionally been operationalized by economic measures associated with quantification of inputs and outputs. For example, income, gross value of resource production derived from employment in resource production industries, or the ratio of employment in resource production industries to total employment. In the context of water resources for agriculture and food production, dependency upon water resources is operationalized in terms of both water usage and the source of water. However, non e conomic measures, such as attitudes and values, play a significant role in resource dependency and are often not included in resource dependency studies. Marshall et al. (2007) proposed that there are social, economic, and environmental components to resou rce dependency, which together describe the nature and magnitude of impacts that might occur as a result of change in the resource relationship. Based on the framework by Marshall et al. (2011), the dimensions of resource dependency relevant for this resea rch are reviewed here.

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95 Attachment to occupation Attachment to occupation is a concept that describes the identity that is created as a result of working in a particular occupation. Resource users such as farmers and fishers can become very attached to t heir occupation. When a person is more firmly attached to an occupation, a change in the occupation becomes more traumatic and disorienting. Employability. wards working elsewhere influences his or her employab ility and level of dependency on the resource. Older resource users are especially disadvantaged because they are the least willing to relocate and begin a new career. They are also generally the least equipped with the necessary occupational and social sk ills to take advantage of other employment opportunities. Thus age also influences employability. Family characteristics People with families are able to experiment less with their options for the future and are consequently less flexible in their appro ach to change. At the same time, families can be sources of support during transitional times. Attachment to place This concept describes the level of connection that people have with their physical community or place, including strong friendships and networks that exist within it. Attachment to place may enhance the capacity of resource users to adapt to a change in the region, as attachment acts to motivate individuals to identify novel solutions and to create a susta inable future. Business size or financial status In agricultural areas property size is another key determinant. Resource users operating small scale enterprises are less flexible in their resource use and more dependent on their occupation. The financial status of resource

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96 users, defined generally by their income level, can also significantly influence their level of dependency upon a resource. In addition to the above factors, formal and informal network s are also determinant s of resource dependency. Individuals with weaker networks are expected to be more dependent on the ir resource dependent occupation because they are less exposed to opportunities, ideas, and support (Marshall et al. 2007). Perception An i the capacity to cope and adapt (Marshall et al., 2007). In particular, a negative perception of an event or policy significantly and adversely influence s the behavior and emotional response of resource users. For policy or project s and their anticipated impacts to be perceived positively, meaningful inv olvement in the decision making process is required. Adaptive capacity assessment methods. Adaptive capacity is hard to measure until after its realization or mobilization within a system because of its latent nature (Engle, 2011). However, two different methods of assessment are found in the literature: m easuring adaptive capacity and c haracte rizing adaptive capacity (Engle, 2011). The first way of measuring adaptive capacity is to empirically investigate actions surrounding past stress events such as droughts, floods, storm surges, and fires. The u nderlying principle of this method is that if the system adapted or adjusted to an event, then the capacity to do so had to exist By identifying the factors that facilitated or inhibited these adaptations, where adaptations occurred or did not occur, dynamics of adaptive capacity in a system can b e understood. This process helps to build theories. In the second method, characterizing adaptive capacity adaptive capacity is assessed based on predetermined system attributes,

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97 mechanisms, or indicators that are identified in the literature. This metho d applies theory. The appropriate method for a study will depend on context, expertise available, and goals. Issues in adaptive capacity a nalysis. A system mobilizes adaptive capacity in different ways for different stresses. Therefore, the determinants of adaptive capacity are context specific. Thus, Adaptive capacity varies between different contexts and systems, and it is not equally distributed with in a system (Adger et al., 2009). These determining system variables themselves interact with each other a nd external factors and as a result change overtime. In addition, the determinants indicate only a potential for adaptation in a system. One of the important issues in the adaptive capacity analysis is that many of the determinants cannot be quantified a nd their functions can only be qualitatively described (Yohe and Tol, 2002). The review of adaptation typologies and determinants of adaptive capacity of systems at different scales provide s an understanding of responses of systems to disturbances. This knowledge is essential for policy makers and planners to identify the key themes and areas of action in a system to develop local level adaptation interventions and improve the capacity of a system to respond to emerging and unexpected disturbances. System Changes: Outcomes Social and ecological systems change in response to multiple pressures. The outcomes of system changes are broadly grouped into two categories, adaptive maintenance through resilience and transformation (Wilson et al., 2013). Tran sformation is further divided into deliberate or unintended categories (Nelson et al. 2007; Chapin et al 2010). In addition to the above, intermediate outcomes may also result if some

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98 components of a system, such as ecological subsystems, institutions, or social units, persist and others transform or degrade (Turner et al. 2003). The resilience literature, reviewed in detail in the previous chapter, considers collap se when the current state of a system is untenable (Pearson & Pearson 2012). However, recently, instead of including transformation as a part of resilience, the need to consider it as a type of system change has been emphasized ( Wilson et al. 2013 ). As a result, there is a growing interest in how to deliberately transform systems and society, particularly to address climate change challenges (Pelling, 2010; OBrien, 2012; Park et al ., 2012). This view is gaining momentum, as our current societies are con sidered to be resilient and self reinforcing but not sustainable (Pearson & Pearson 2012; Wilson, 2013). Since the characteristics of resilient systems have already been discussed in the previous chapter, in this section the similarities and differences between resilience and transformation in a system and the characteristics necessary for transformation are discussed. Resilience vs Transformation Resilience refers to the ability of a n SES to absorb disturbance and reorganize to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedback (Walker et al., 2004), whereas transformation refers to the process of deep change of identity, feedback processes, structure, and function s (Abel et al., 2006; Wilson, 2013). Transformation types. Transformation in a system can be a result of deliberate process or an unexpected or unintended outcome of a process or event (Nelson et al., 2007). A n SES with high adaptive capacity can either p ersist or transform depending on how the

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99 existing conditions are viewed. If there is satisfaction with the existing condition, a system may persist in the face of disturbance. If the existing conditions are viewed as untenable in a system, a high adaptive capacity leads to the transformation of the system or subsystem to a potentially more beneficial state. Such deliberate transformations are also referred to as directional transformations (Chapin et al., 2009) or purposive transformations (Berkhout e t al. 2002). These transformations are often carried out with the intention of attaining a specific goal. However, if the adaptive capacity in a system is inadequate for cop ing with disturbances, unintended transformation to a new, often degraded, state may result. Historically, many inadvertent societal transformations are linked to overexploitation of local resources, rapid population growth, or failure to adapt to relatively abrupt climatic changes ( Marn, Gelcich, & Castilla, 2014). Scale. Transforma tion is a complex process. It can take place at any level, from the individual to the region al as a result of changes at the personal, cultural, organizational, and institutional levels (Park et al., 2012). The ability to undertake transformative change at one scale often depends on the nature and extent of adaptive actions at other interacting scales. At the same time, transformative processes can also take place independently within a complex system. Three spheres of transformation To understand the dynamics of transformation processes and links across different scales, s The practical sphere includes behavioral chan ges, social and technological innovations, and institutional and managerial reforms. The political sphere is comprise d of the social and ecological systems and structures and creates necessary conditions for transformations in the practical

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100 sphere. The per sonal sphere consists of individual and collective beliefs, values, and worldviews. The p ersonal sphere shapes the ways the political sphere and the options in practical spheres are viewed. The three spheres framework provides an understanding of the cross scale links that are essential for achieving transformational outcomes. Characteristics of transformational c hange. Analysis of characteristics of transformational change and the factors that contribute to transformational change are emerging. Based on ca se studies characteristics identified at the village and community level (Wilson et al., 2013), ecosystem level (Park et al., 2012) and system level (Bahadur et al., 2014) are discussed below. At the community level, Wilson et al. (2013) identify the foll owing characteristics that have the potential to support purposeful, positive transformation: vision, identification with place, societal dissatisfaction with the status quo, high personal contribution to social capital, open social networks, and latent ca pital. However, among the above required characteristics, vision and societal dissatisfaction with the status quo have the potential to cause negative transformation as well. A community undergoing adaptive maintenance exhibits closed and well internally l inked social networks (Smith et al., 2003 ), whereas for a transformative change in a community, open networks are required. From the resilience perspective, Park et al. (2012) proposes the following set of principles and recommendations that can guide a system to transformative change and prevent social ecological degradation: a strong sense of place; prioritizing long term solutions over short term benefits; collective engagement of all key stakeholders and a willingness to compromise; the right to organize and manage; a negotiated consensus on

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101 sustainability goals; formal and informal monitoring; the flexibility to renegot iate goals and adapt; and guidance by a skilled facilitator. Based on reviewing the literature and interviewing experts, Bahadur et al. (2014) list the following system characteristics necessary for transformational change: Radical change, Innovation an d experimentation; Addressing power imbalances; Critical reflection, beliefs and values; Effective leadership; Collective vision and future orientation; Moments of opportunity and policy windows. Limitations. In the emerging transformation literature, ther e are already a number of cautionary remarks on transformation analysis. One of them is the possibility of the concept of transformation being used in a role different from its main original role because transformation is mostly used to signify positive ch anges without acknowledging possible negative transformations and overlooking the fine line between accommodating changes and consciously creating alternatives. Further more the content available to guide the implementation is limited. This calls for great er attention to the characteristics of transformational change in the SES analysis (Pearson, 2012). Planning and Analysis of System Changes The purpose of planning is to analyze, prepare for and create better futures. However, the future has always been complex and indeterminate. Therefore, a vital issue in planning is making decisions and taking actions based on the understanding of the kno wn and the unknown about the future (Abbot, 2005). Yet there is a claim that planning focuses more on deliberative processes concentrating on the present and away from its future orientation (M yer s & Kitsuse 2000). One of the limiting factors identified is the absence of theories or procedures for both discovering and representing the future.

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102 SES literature and system change analysis provide a basis for thinking about future states and associated uncertainties of the environment and in representing the fu ture, which is discussed below. Future, Uncertainty and Planning The f uture is rooted in both the past and present. Hence, to shape the future, planners need to be aware of the way in which past and future are linked through present decision making. Chang e and uncertainty for planning is created by numerous natural and social processes linking the past, present, and future situations. The natural and social processes are grouped into the following four categories of causal factors by Mack (1971): Basic int ernal dynamics; External influences; Human factors and strategies, and Chances. Each of these categories of factors is considered to create uncertainty for planning. Though a common word, it is important to understand what is meant by lanning. Lack of knowledge by an individual or group that is relevant to the purpose or action being undertaken is considered as uncertainty (Abbot, 2005). Thus, the gap between what is known and what needs to be known to make correct decisions is uncerta inty (Mack, 1971). Dimension of u ncertainty. Two kinds of uncertainty are identified in the planning literature, namely environmental uncertainty and process uncertainty (Abbot 2005 ). Uncertainty created by the changing social environment is environment al uncertainty or uncertainty for planning. Uncertainty created by the planning process for the groups and individuals involved is called process uncertainty or uncertainty from planning. They are closely interlinked and have overlapping components. Thus, based on the causal factor

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103 classification by (Mack, 1971), the following five dimensions of uncertainty affecting planning are identifie d by Abbot (2005): 1. Causal uncertainty: uncertainty about the internal dynamics i.e. basic physical, economic, and social relationships in the situation; 2. Human and organizational uncertainty: Difficulty in predicting the actions and future intentions of people and organizations in the situation ; 3. External uncertainty: Uncertainties in knowledge of the external social environment and how it relates to and influences the situation; 4. Chance uncertainty: Unpredictable one off chance even ts affecting the situation; 5. Value uncertainty: Uncertainties about appropriate value judgments i.e. understanding and including the values and aspirations of people and groups involved in and affected by planning. Problems of uncertainty in p lanning. The various dimensions of uncertainty and complexity create difficulties in the consideration and constru ction of alternative futures in the planning processes. Moreover, high level of uncertainty results in conditions of conflict due to value differences. Due to the fear of uncertainty, the public tend s to support simple solution s over better intelligent ac tion (Abbot, 2005). As a result, many good future options are often not considered or pursued. Addressing u ncertainty. System Change analysis. In societal systems, uncertainty arises from a variety of processes involving a large number of agents whose int entions, actions, and values drive and shape system changes. The different dimensions of uncertainty can be reduced by the knowledge of disturbances, responses, and resultant

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104 system changes: external uncertainty by the knowledge of disturbances and its effects; human and organizational uncertainty and causal uncertainty by the knowledge of responses, adaptation, and determinant of adaptive capacity; value uncertainty by the knowledge of community and individual values. Thus, by helping to red uce uncertainty, system change analysis can inform the planning process. Addressing uncertainty: r epresenting the f uture To reduce uncertainty and project future outcomes, forecasting or quantitative trend analysis is often employed by planners. Such an approach is suitable for systems with a few variables and simple interactions and is considered less appropriate for dynamic complex systems with high uncertainty. In highly uncertain complex systems, to expand the ran ge of considerations and parameters in the analysis and decision making the qualitative scenario planning method is considered suitable. Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes a nd decision points ( Kahn, & Wiener, 1967 ). By crafting narratives and rehearsing alternative possibilities, scenario planning offers the ability to incorporate factors in planning which cannot be modeled. It can be employed both as a method of analysis an d a representational tool. The knowledge about the system changes can play a vital role in scenario planning and contribute to the process of constructing alternate futures and appropriate responses. making und existed in the past and exists now may not continue to exist in the future or may exist in a modified form. Often times the future is addressed in a limited way in planning, due to the lack of understanding of the dynamic processes an d factors that shape the future ( M yer s & Kitsuse 2000). The system change analysis methods help to overcome this limitation by

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105 bridging the gap between the known and the unknown about the future and consequently to address the various dimensions of uncertainty in planning and to represent alternate futures in the form of scenarios. When policy interventions or developmental activities with possible negative impacts on some components of a n SES are planned or whe n a n SES is undergoing a natural disturbance, the knowledge of system characteristics and system changes would help the policy makers, planners, and communities to envisage the possible system responses and the directions of change. Based on this understan ding of system changes, long term visions and actions, either to strengthen the existing system characteristics or purposively transform the system, can be developed. Conclusion In this chapter, an in depth examination of disturbances in SESs, determinants of various responses in SESs and possible outcomes w as carried out. Additionally, how this knowledge, by reducing uncertainties about future, can help planning in thinking about and representing alternate future s was also discussed. Based on this literatu re review, this research proposes the use of adaptive capacity as a heuristic device to examine responses of water supplying regions to rural urban water transfers and resultant system changes, with an aim to project plausible future scenarios. With the th eoretical aspects of this research having now been addressed, the following chapter presents how these ideas informed this research from a methodological standpoint and how they were used to explore the rural urban water transfer processes and its conseque nces.

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106 CHAPTER IV RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY Introduction This chapter examines the research design and methodology chosen for this study. This includes a discussion on my adoption of a mixed method single case study design, data collection methods (survey, semi structured interviews, documents and archival data), sampling techniques (stratified, snowball and purposive), data ana lysis and interpretation processes, and various issues surrounding the validity and reliability issues of this research. This study comprehends the response processes of water users, primarily farmers, to water transfers, and seeks to analyze the changes at the individual and system level s in the water supplying rural region in a selected case. The complexity of this research problem calls for answers beyond simple numbers in a quantitative sense or words in a qualitative sense. The research questions pos ed require both an exploration as well as an explanation drawing from different data sources. Since mixed method research design enables multiple ways of viewing a problem, this study employs a mixed method, single case study design that utilizes quantitat ive and qualitative data. The combined methods establish a complementary, holistic approach that triangulates methods and data to derive comprehensive research findings. This chapter begins with a discussion on the philosophical approach, followed by a de scription and justification of the research design adopted in this study. A brief account of the selected case is provided, before the data collection methods are described. This is

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107 followed by a discussion on various quantitative, qualitative and mixed m ethod data analysis techniques employed. Finally, strategies adopted throughout the conduct of this research to address th reats to validity and reliability are outlined. Philosophical Assumption: Pragmatism Philosophical frameworks, described also as world views, are general beliefs and assumption s about research and guide research inquiries (Creswell, 2014). Of the many worldviews that can inform a mixed method research, this research adopts pragmatism. Pragmatism, as a philosophy of research, focuses on consequences of research, a research problem, and what works in real world practice (Creswell & Clark, 2011). Pragmatism also sheds light on how research approaches can be mixed effectively (Hoshmand, 2003). A pragmatist views reality as both singular as well as multiple. When reality is viewed as singular, a researcher employs a theory that operates to explain the phenomenon of study. When reality is viewed as multiple, the researcher looks for multiple perspectives from participant, to view and assess th e nature of the phenomenon. A pragmatist may test hypotheses or provide multiple perspectives and combine deductive and inductive thinking (Creswell, 2014). Case Description The selected case for this study, Chennai Water Supply Augmentation Project I, is located in the state of Tamil Nadu, India. This project, commonly known as the New Veeranam Project, was commissioned to supply water to Chennai city from the Veeranam Tank and was implemented in the year 2004. The details of the receiving regions, the water transfer project, and the supplying region are briefly presented below. In Chapter 5, a detailed account of the case is provided.

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108 The New Veeranam Project Description Water receiving region. Chennai, the capital of the state of Tamil Nadu, is one of the most water stressed cities of India. The Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB) is responsible for supplying water for city needs. Chennai City does not have access to a perennial source of water and depends primarily on three r eservoirs. The a vailability of water in these sources depends on the rainfall in the region. In general, there is a huge gap between supply and demand in Chennai, which widens in drought years. The p er capita water supply in Chennai was 76 liters/day in the year 2001 (Sridharan, 2008). Available water is limited, but the population continues to increase. To meet the growing demand, the city has been augmenting water from distant sources. The New Veeranam Project is one such effort. Water supplying region The Veeranam Tank, located at a distance of 230 km from Chennai, was constructed in the 11th century and renovated in the 19 th century. It is a shallow tank formed by an earthen embankment. The length of its bund is 16.00 km. It has a water spread of 25. 9 sq. km. The maximum capacity of the tank is 1465 Mcft (Million Cubic Feet). However, it has silted up over the years and the storage capacity has been considerably reduced. It is part of the Cauvery river system and located at the tail end of the system. It receives water from both the Cauvery River and from its own catchment area. The annual rainfall in the region ranges from 1050 to 1400 mm. It receives 72% of its total rainfall from the northeast monsoon between October and December. Surface water from the Veeranam tank was primarily used for irrigation for many centuries. As an irrigation tank, it irrigates an area of 18,152 hectares or 44, 856 acres. The total number of villages that benefit from the irrigation system of the Veeranam Tank is

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109 128. Open unlined canals are the chief feature of the irrigation system. Paddy is the major crop in the study area. Depending on water availability, the cropping system in the region is either paddy paddy pulse or paddy pulse. The region has a majority of marg inal and small farmers and very few large farmers (Agriculture Census Division, 2010 11). Marginal farmers are those who own less than 2 acres of land and large farmers own more than 10 acres of land. The n ew Veeranam p roject. The New Veeranam Project was built to convey 180 MLD (Millions Liters per Day) of water to Chennai from the Veeranam tank, through a 230 km pipeline (CMWSSB, 2011). Amidst protests from farmers in the supplying region, it was implemented in the year 2004, nearly 36 years after it was first conceived. To enable the withdrawal of 180 MLD of water from Veeranam tank for the city of Chennai, bunds of the tank were raised by 0.61m thereby increasing the storage capacity of the tank. The Environmental Impact Assessment report p repared in 1994 by the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) states that the project would not have an adverse impact on first user irrigation rights. However, an addendum to the report mentions that e safeguarded as they would be adversely affected in dry years. Conceptual Approach With an aim to analyze the process of water transfer in totality in a selected case, this study adopts a broad systems perspective, conceptualizing the water supplying reg ion in the selected case as a complex Social Ecological System and the water transfer process as an external disturbance on the system, as it is an administrative decision (Refer Fig. 4.1).

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110 External Disturbance Figure 4.1: Conceptualization of Water Transfer Process and Focus of this S tudy In the selected case, this research analy z es the rural urban water transfer decision practices and the trajectories of social, economic, and environmental changes brought abou t by the water transfer project in the water supplying region. To understand the changes in the supplying region systematically, this research investigates how people and nature organize around change by focusing upon the individual and societal responses that rural urban water transfers induce, and the social, institutional and ecological feedback effects they provoke. This analysis aims to bring together many interrelated variables and their interactions and synthesize their complex dynamics of change in the study area. The SES Analysis Framework Social Ecological Systems Theory Water Supplying Basin Water Transfers Planning Implem entation Changes in Urban Characteristics Changes in Rural Regional Characteristics Socio economic and Environmental conditions RESPONSES (Social and Environmental) Causal Factors Water Source ( Changes in water availability ) Features included in the analysis

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111 theoretical approach and the framework adopted in the analysis and organization of this study are described below. The theory of adaptive capacity is found to be most appropriate to explain the selected complex phenomenon in this study, as the theoretical literature on adaptive capacity could explain the complex factors that build the capacity of the actors to respond. However, to organize complex multiple variables, a framework as a broad structuring device is required. Frameworks help to place bounds on inquiry, organize study, and direct attention to certain focal attributes of the social and physical environment (Ostrom, 2009). Therefore, the Social Ecological Framework (SESF) is employed to organize multiple variables. Within t he SESF, the literature on adaptive capacity and SES s informed the identification of pertinent lower tier variables and development of Propositions in this study. In addition, to capture variables that were relevant to the chosen study area, both inductiv e and deductive approaches were adopted in the analysis of qualitative data. (For details refer to the section on data analysis).

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112 Figure 4.2: Focal Variables in this S tudy The SESF, employed to organize the variables in this study, has been subjected to reconsiderations and refinement since its inception. One of the issues raised in its further development is related to the focus on single action situation s in the analysis. Essentially, action situations are social and environmental processe s through which interactions lead to outcomes. Focusing on a single action situation in the analysis results in neglect of the multiple and diverse action situations that affect SESs and the outcomes (McGinnis, 2011). In order to understand outcomes in SES s, the analysis must capture the multiple process by which those outcomes arise. To address this issue, Hinkel et al. (2014) introduced the concept of process relationships that define dynamic interactions between variables to represent and study the dynam ics of SES s The development of process relationships by Hinkel et al. (2014) helps to determine the change of the coupled system over time by Resource System Sp a t i a l a n d t e m p o r a l d i s t r i b u t io n P r e d i c t a b il i t y Institutions and Governance Systems I n f o r m al p r o ce du re s ; N e t w o r k s R u l e s i n U s e Actors and Actor Groups L o c a t io n S o c i o e c o n o m i c A tt r i b u t e s S o c i a l C a p i t a l Leadership R e s o u r c e Dependency Perception Rural Supplying Region (Changing characteristics as Outcome) Urban Receiving Region Process relationship between variables results in responses l eading to system changes

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113 making clear which variables influence each other (Schluter et al. 2014) and hence was adopted in this study. The variabl es identified for analysis with in the SESF based on the SES and adaptive capacity literature is represented in Fig. 4.2. The lower tier variables under the first tier variable Actors are listed in detail in Table 4.1 and the relationship s betwe en variables are represented in fig 4.5. Research Design A research design refers to a flexible set of guidelines that provides a logical plan for approaching research (Yin, 2003) and connects theoretical paradigms to strategies of inquiry (Denzin & Lincoln, 2003). Case study inquiry, particularly the single embedded case study approach, is found to be a suitable approach for addressing the research questions in this study. Water transfer and community responses are complex phenomena that occur withi n a particular contexts and settings. A detailed examination of a single case is found to be an ideal method to explore and unravel the complexities associated with water transfer and community responses. A description and justification of the case study and mixed method approach is provided below. Case Study Research A case study is an in depth exploration of a bounded system, for example an activity, event, process, or individuals, based on extensive data collection (Creswell, 2007), and suitable for inv estigat ing a contemporary phenomenon in a real world context (Yin, 2014). Since a single case study approach allows the researcher to develop a holistic understanding of the phenomenon under investigation and facilitates exploration of a phenomenon within its context using a variety of data sources (Creswell, 2007; Yin, 2014), this research adopts a single case study method.

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114 Single e mbedded case study design. A single embedded case study design was selected because the embedded subunits can add significant opportunities for extensive analysis, enhancing insights into a single case (Yin, 2014). The water supplying region, both the water source the Veeranam tank and the area irrigated by it, is considered the main unit of analysis and conceptualized as a social ecological system (SES). Within this unit of analysis, many subunits are incorporated. The two key embedded units included in this single case study are th e farmers and villages in the water supplying region (Fig 4.3). Figure 4.3: Embedded Units of Analysis within the Main Case Mixed Method Research Mixed method research is an approach to research in which the investigator gathers both quantitative and qualitative data, integrates the two and then draws interpretations based on the combined strengths of both sets of data to understand the research problems (Creswell, 2014). A m ixed method approach offers multiple ways of viewing a problem. Particularly in case study research, mixed method research allows the researcher to collect an array of evidence and address more complicated research questions (Yin, 2014). The weaknesses of both qualitative and quantitative research are counterbalanced in mixed method research (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2011). Water Supplying Region Villages Based on location Farmer Types Based on size of land holdings Main Case Embedded Units

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115 This embedded case study research employed different types of data for analyzing the main case and embedded units of analysis. Primary and secondary data in the form of both quantitative and qualitative data were collected. To gain a fine grained understanding of one of the embedded units of analysis actions, a survey of farmers was conducted. A combination of both quantitative and qualitative data enabled the most complete analysis of the problems. It helped to situate numbers in the conte xts and words of participants and frame the words of the participants with numbers, trends, and statistical results (Creswell & Clark, 2011). Figure 4.4: Mixed Method Research: Convergent Parallel Design Timing and level of interaction between qualitative and quantitative strands. This section explains the many research design decisions that determined the interaction between qualitative and quantitative strands. In terms of data collection, this research design followed a convergent parallel design. In a convergent design or convergent parallel design, quantitative and qualitative data are collected concurrently during the same phase of the research proce ss (Yin, 2014). Accordingly in this study, after the exploratory study phase and during the main data collection phase, convergent design qualitative and quantitative data were collected separately. The qualitative and quantitative strands were kept independent during the data Quantitative Data Collection Survey and Archival Records Qualitative Data Collection Interviews and Documents Quantitative Data Analysis Descriptive, Time series and correlational analysis Qualitative Data Analysis Manual Data Analysis (Inductive and Deductive ) Merge and Interpret

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116 analy sis phase as well. The survey data was analyzed quantitatively and the interview data was analyzed qualitatively. Then, the two sets of results were merged to asses s how the results converge and diverge. Thus, the results were merged only during the overa ll interpretation. This is explained further in detail in the data analysis section. Data and Methods A case study benefits from having multiple sources of evidence because many sources of evidence help to corroborate and augment findings (Yin, 2014). The sources of evidence found to be relevant for this embedded single case study design were archival records, documents, semi structured interviews and survey s Each of the sources of evidence and the data collection methods used in this study are briefly r eviewed in this section. The four types of evidence are grouped under two categories, primary and secondary. Primary data include both qualitative semi structured interview s and quantitative survey s Secondary data include quantitative archival records and qualitative documents. A description of study phases, the selection of embedded subunits and various data collection methods is provided below. Study P hases and Selection of Subunits Study p hases. An exploratory study was carried out in January and February of 2013 to gain a holistic picture of the selected case and identify the main focus of the study from the wide range of issues identified through the literature review and desk study. By analyzin g secondary data and exploratory key informant interviews, each variable in the Social Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) was investigated in the chosen context. Such a conceptual map of the case enabled the organization of potentially influential variab les in the study region. Based on the exploratory study, the survey instrument and

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117 semi structured interview guides were developed. After obtaining the approval of the Colorado Multiple Institutional Review Board University of Colorado Denver, field work was conducted during July and August 2013 which involved conducting in depth interviews with key informants and surveys among farmers. Selection of s ubunits. This single case study involves embedded units of analysis at more than one level. The embedded units are the farmers and villages in the water supplying region. To identify the villages that are deemed representative of the supplying a diverse case selection method wa s employed, as it increases the representative characteristic of the samples. The Veeranam tank irrigates agricultural lands in more than 120 villages. The exploratory study revealed distinct differences among the head reach and tail end of these villages. To include a diverse range of embedded units of analysis, i.e. the farmers and villages in the study area, two major irrigation canals were selected, one on the northern part and the other on the southern part of the study region. To maintain anonymity, t he two selected canals are referred to as the Northern Canal and the Southern Canal and the villages are denoted by alphanumeric identifiers. A detailed analysis of villages along the canals, with a special focus on head reach and tail end villages, w as c arried out by collecting census data. Within these villages, a survey of farmers was conducted. Sampling techniques and data collection procedures adopted for conducting survey and semi structured interviews are discussed in detail under the section on pri mary data collection methods.

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118 Primary Data Collection Two Primary data collection methods, specifically survey and semi structured interviews, were employed in this study. The survey provided the quantitative data and the semi structured interviews provided the qualitative data for the analysis. The survey and interview procedures and the sampling strategies are discussed in the following section. Survey Design and Construction S urvey research involves the collection of information from a sample of characteristics in the supplying region, a survey of farmers was carried out. Survey s designed as part of an embedded case study, produced the quantitative part of the case s tudy evidence. Survey instrument. The survey instrument focused primarily on respondents socio economic characteristics, resource dependency, their perception of water transfer and impacts, their responses to change and future choices and was developed based on the literature review, field observations, key informant interviews and secondary data collected during the exploratory study. The survey instrument is provided in Appendix B. Survey items in the instrument were developed to quantify farmers socio economic characteristics, resource dependency, and perceptions of the community, leaders hip, and water transfer. Five point Likert scale questions were used to measure many latent characteristics such as trust reciprocity and resource dependency. Already tested questions from other studies, particularly the World Bank Social Capital Assessme nt tool (SOCAT), and Marshall, et al., 2011, were used for measuring variables such as social capital and resource dependency. The survey also included question s

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119 immediate reaction s short term and long term responses s to water transfer, and th eir perception of changes. The last section of the survey instrument was designed to collect information on their responses to future scenarios. Response options listed in the survey were based on the exploratory study and field observation. Some negative questions were included in the survey to avoid agreement bias. Details of the measurement of the variables are presented in Appendix A. Table 4.1 : Lower Tier Variables Measured Through Survey SECOND and THIRD TIER VARIABLES References for survey items ACTORS (A) A 2 : S o c i o e c o n o m i c a tt r i b u t e s o f a c t o r s A 4 : L o c a t io n A 5 : L e a d e r s h i p A5a:Characteristics of the leadership A 6 : S o c i a l c a p i t a l A6a: T r u s t A6b: R e c i p r o c i t y A6c: Formal and Informal networks Social Capital Assessment tool A 8 : R e s o u r c e Dependence A8a:Attachment to occupation A8b:Employability A8c:Family characteristics A8d:Attachment to place A8e:Business size and approach / Financial status Marshall, et .al., 2011 A7:Actors Perception Water transfer Changes in regional characteristics Developed based on exploratory study and literature review INTERACTION (I) or Responses I1 H a rv e s t i n g l e v e l s and Responses I 5 I n v e s t m e n t a c t i v i t i e s I1a:Diversification I7 Self organizing activities I 8 N e t w o r k i n g a c t i v i t i e s I8a:Network characteristics I8b:State civil society relation Sampling p rocedure: s tratified sampling. For understanding the diverse groups of water user characteristics within the study area, a survey of farmers in the selected head reach and tail end villages was carried out. The survey respondents were long term users

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120 of water from Veeranam Tank who had been using water from the Tank prior to the implementation of the water transfer project in 2004. To captur e key population characteristics in the sample, a stratified sampling technique was employed. characteristics (Abel & Langston, 2001). According to a 2005 06 a gricultural census, there are four categories of farmers in the study area based on the size of the land holding, viz. marginal, small, medium, and large farmers. The study area has 83% marginal farmers and a smaller number of medium and large farmers (Ag ricultural census, 2010 11). Though marginal farmers constitute 83% of the population, they hold only 43% of the land. In general, matching the sample selected for a study with the population characteristics w ould be helpful in determining the overall tren d in the region. In this study, this strategy would result in a large number of marginal farmers in the sample. Thus, disproportionate stratified sampling is found to be suitable for this study. This sampling method insures that important segments that co nstitute a small percentage of the population have a sufficient number of respondents in the sample without oversampling segments that are a high er percentage of the population. In addition to four categories of farmers, yet another category of cultivator s is increasingly found in the region. They are the landless agriculture laborers leasing land from the land owners to cultivate. These agricultural laborers were included as the fifth category of farmers. Thus, the survey respondents included equal number s of the following five strata of farmers in the head reach and tail end villages irrigated by the two selected canals: Marginal, small, medium and large land owning farmers and land leasing agricultural laborers. The main purpose of this survey is to dete rmine responses by different

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121 categories of farmers and examine the relationship between their socio economic characteristics and attitudes and the responses. Sample size. Except for the large farmer category, 40 farmers in each stratum were included. The region has very few large land owning cultivators. Therefore, only six large farmers were included in the survey. Thus, a total of 166 farmers were surveyed. The responden ts were equally distributed in head reach and tail end villages. It is generally recommended that large sampling ratios of approximately 50 percent be drawn from populations under 500 and the majority of the villages have less than 100 cultivators. However the sample examined in this study will be used to analyze the entire villages within the command area as a whole rather than for the few selected villages. Moreover, stratified sampling is used in this case as it often requires a smaller sample. Thus, a relatively small sample size was utilized in this study. Table 4.2: Sample Size: Disproportionate Stratified Sampling Strata Land Holding In acres Head Tail Total Number of villages 2or 3 2 or 3 Leasing Farmers 20 20 40 Marginal cultivators < 2 20 20 40 Small cultivator 2 5 20 20 40 Medium 5 10 20 20 40 Large >10 3 3 6 Subtotal 63 63 166 Procedure. Face to face survey s of farmers in the selected villages in the study area w ere conducted. The survey instrument and information sheets were translated in to the local language : Tamil. I approached the water users personally, explained the purpose of the survey, and requested t hat they consider participating in the survey. In many cases, I read the questions out loud to the farmers and the n marked their answers in the

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122 questionnaire. The survey respondents answered questions about their perception of community characteristics, water issues, the Veeranam water transfer project, region al changes, and their responses to the water transfer project. The time required to complete the survey was approximately 60 90 minutes. Key Informant Interviews Qualitative interview s a method of data collection, are a form of social interaction and in volve a dialogue between people. With the assumption that the perspective of others is meaningful, knowable, and able to be made explicit, interviews involve information or opinion gathering by asking a series of questions (Patton, 2002). Accordingly, to c apture different perceptions of the water transfer process and its consequences, semi structured interviews were conducted for this research. All the qualitative data collected through interviews were used to validate the results from the quantitative surv ey and gain additional insights into the findings. Sample selection and size. The participants in these interviews were initially identified by purposive sampling, and subsequently by snowball sampling. In purposive sampling, also referred to as convenie nce or judgmental sampling, the selection of participants is based on both their appropriateness for inclusion and their ease of access (Patton, 2002). In the snowball sampling technique, interviewees are contacted via recommendations and referrals (Bierna cki &Waldorf, 1981). The key informants included elected representatives of people. A total of 15 interviews were conducted. Interview g uide. To collect qualitative data through semi structured interview s a general interview guide approach was adopted. An interview guide lists the questions or

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123 issues to be covered in an interview. Within the listed topics, it allows the researcher to ask additional questions and bu ild the conversation to probe into a specific subject area in greater depth. The interview guide employed in this study is provided in Appendix B Depending on the key informants experience and interest, the focus changed during each interview. For instance, the elected representative of the people elaborated on government policies and programs, and the village leaders focused on social capital and responses. Procedure. All the semi structured interviews were conducted face to face, with each lasting for approximately one to two hours. The participants in semi structured interviews were interviewed mostly on e at a time at a place that was convenient for them. Detailed notes were taken during each interview. When the key informant permitted, the interv iews were recorded to make sure that the most accurate information possible was utilized in the analysis. Secondary D ata Collection The term secondary data refers to data that were collected for other studies. Secondary data can be both quantitative and q ualitative. It allows researchers to look at trends and changes of phenomena over time by providing data over several different time periods. Secondary data collected for this research include both documents and archival records. Documents Documents are a rich source of qualitative material that provide information on the particular context and are valuable in corroborating and augmenting evidence from other sources. (Yin, 2014). Documents must be carefully used, as they are not always accu rate and may not be lacking in bias (Yin, 2014).

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124 Forms of documents. Documentary information take many forms: Administrative documents, such as proposals, progress reports, and other internal records; Formal studies or evaluations related to the case; agen das, announcements and minutes of meetings, and other written reports of events; News clippings and other articles appearing in the mass media or in community newspapers; and Letters, memoranda, e mails, and other personal documents, such as diaries, calen dars, and notes (Yin, 2014). In this study, documents on both the water transfer project and the supplying region were collected to provide comprehensive background knowledge on the history of the water supplying region, the Veeranam water transfer project and its implementation process, and important events and changes before and after the implementation. Documents on the supplying region that I collected included the following: Local and regional newspapers, both printed and electronic ; Reports and we b pages of various state government agencies such as the Public Works Department (PWD) and the Department of Agriculture; Documentaries on water development in the region prepared by Non Governmental Organizations (NGO) and individuals interested in wat er other community groups that were publicly available; and Research papers and academic reports. Documents on the water transfer project mainly included the Chennai Metro water (CMWSSB) website. While the technical documents on the final construction phase were available, the project proposal s prepared during various time period s were not available. This project was initially conceived in 1968 and cancelled due to qu ality issues and corruption charges in 1977. Subsequently it was revived in 1993 and dropped again.

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125 Availability of and access to administrative documents on the water transfer project at various time periods were limited due to the involvement of differe nt organizations in the project at different time s and organizational restructuring in the last two decades. However, the project proposal, EIA report and project evaluation reports prepared in the year 1994 were available o n the World Bank website and used in this study. In the absence of project proposal s and approval document s newspaper and magazine articles and academic reports were used to gather background information as well as conflicting views of the project. Archival Records Archival research is analyzing already collected data, usually quantitative (Yin, 2014). Archives mostly consist of public use files such as census data, organizational records, maps and charts, and survey data produced by others about the research (Yin, 2014). Archival r ecords are an invaluable tool for gathering data for a case study C areful analysis of archival records can provide valuable information on various time periods for the chosen case and enable analysis of trend s One of the important archival records collected for this study is census data. In order to analyze the system changes, village level census data on land use, socio economic characteristics, and worker composition for the years 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 were collected. In addit ion, water inflow and outflow data from the Veeranam Tank, Agricultural production, land use, and rainfall in the region were collected from different government organizations such as the Public Works Department (PWD), the Department of Agriculture, the T amil Nadu Water Supply and Drainage board (TWAD), the Department of Economics and statistics, and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

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126 Limitations t o Data Collection Secondary data. The l ack of availability of disaggregated historical data on water flow and the irrigated area limited the time period of analysis. Water flow data was available only from 1982 forward due to ad ministrative restructuring with in the Public Works Department (PWD ). Moreover, disaggregated data on inflow in each irrigation canal was not available. However, aggregate data on flow in irrigation canal s was available for analyz ing the changes in water flow before and after water transfer. Another issue was difficulty a ccessing the available disaggregated historical data, such as seasonal and yearly village wise irrigated area. Consequently decadal census data was utilized to analyze the land use changes in the study area. Primary data. This research required the recons truction of events by asking interviewees and survey respondent s to think back over how certain events unfolded and how conditions changed after the implementation of the water transfer project. There is a possibility of interviewees distorting informatio n through recall error and selective perceptions. To ensure that the water transfer is viewed and explored from multiple perspectives in this study, in addition to farmers and village leaders, various key informants were interviewed including academicians and elected representatives of the people. However, water utility officials were not available to share their views on the project. Triangulation of data sources and data types is used to address this issue. Data Analysis The d ata analysis phase consists of preparing, categorizing, and examining evidence to produce empirically based findings. In this research, quantitative and qualitative data were collected separately at approximately the same point in time. Due to

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127 the variety of data collected, the analysis included different techniques. At first, both sets of data were analyzed separately. At the data interpretation stage, the inferences made from the separate quantitative and qualitative data and findings were compared and in tegrated as shown in Fig 4.4. The analysis techniques employed in this research for quantitative, qualitative and mixed method components are described below. Analysis of Quantitative Data It is important to select proper statistical tools to analyze the data since the way the data is analyzed can have varying effects on the interpretations and conclusions. The research questions in this study require description of trends and comparison of groups and the relationship among variables. The data analysis te chniques used were time series and correlational analysis. The quantitative data analysis was carried out in SPSS and in Excel software. The process of the analysis of quantitative data collected through surveys and from archival records is described below Analysis of s urvey data. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the study sample demographically and behaviorally. Though most of the survey items were adopted from already tested studies, such as the World Bank Social Capital Assessment tool ( SOCAT), reliability analysis was conducted to ensure that only those statements that contribute to internal consistency are included in the analysis. Some negative questions were included in the survey to avoid agreement bias and the scores for those ques tions were reversed prior to the analysis. The correlation s among statements were determined by of 0.7 or greater was accepted a s indicating a reliable scale (De Vau s, 2002 ). Scores of

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128 multiple Likert scale questions for each variable were combined into a single composite score for the purpose of analysis. The relationship s between the variables, listed in Fig. 4.5, were examined using correlative analysis techniques The results are discussed in detail in the subsequent chapters of this report. A6a: T r u s t A6b: r e c i p r o c i t y A6c: Formal and Informal networks A8a:Attachment to occupation A8b:Employability A8c:Family characteristics A8d:Attachment to place A8e:Business size and approach /Financial status A6c: Formal and Informal networks Figure 4.5. Relationship between A ttributes ( V ariables) Archival records. The data on the following variables were collected from archival records to analyze changes over time, specifically before and after water transfer: land use, socio economic characteristics, worker composition and water flow in irrigation canals. Simple descriptive statistics, bar charts and line graphs were used to understand variation in measurement variables over the years. Variations in monthly water flow in irrigation canals were analyzed from the years 1982 to 2012. Water flow data was compared with the variations in rainfall data in the region for the same period. Based on the census data, Gender: Age: Education: Occupations Family characteristics Income Years of residence in the village Area of land owned Organizational memberships Determinants Relationship Location Socio economic Attributes Social Capital Resource Dependence Perception of water transfer Characteristics and Types of response

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129 changes in worker composition and land use were analyzed for selected villages from 1981 to 2011. Agricultural production and land under cultiva tion in the region were analyzed for the years 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. Analysis of Qualitative D ata The analysis of qualitative data collected through semi structured interviews and from documents is described below. Interviews. All the key informant i nterviews were conducted in the local language of Tamil. Most of the interviews were recorded and all audio recordings were transcribed. Since the interviews were conducted in Tamil, I simultaneously translated and transcribed the contents in English. To e nsure accuracy, audio files were played multiple times and prepared transcripts were checked. Upon completion of my data collection and interview transcriptions, I began a more thorough analysis of my interviews. As I read through each completed transcript I highlighted key passages and stories that depicted themes and concepts relevant to this research, making notes within page margins to elaborate on and clarify these emerging themes. The qualitative data analysis was carried out for two purposes. First, the qualitative results were used for explanatory purpose s, i.e. to help explain and interpret the quantitative survey results. Secondly, the qualitative data was analyzed to identify new emerging themes. Therefore, I organized the gathered notes and exemplars into two separate master data categories: themes that addressed and complemented the survey data and new themes. Thus, both inductive and deductive approach es w ere adopted in the interview analysis Documents. Analysis of the documents provided detailed background knowledge on a range of past and current issues associated with water transfers. Document analysis

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130 complemented data obtained through other data collection methods and added a certain depth and contextual richness to my case. Most of the documents were categorized as relevant literature that helped to inform the case study inquiry, as opposed to being research data that needed to be analyzed. Documentaries on water development in the region, pamphlets, booklets and web content prepared community groups were analyzed to identify themes relevant to this research and included in the master data. Mixed Method Data Analysis: Convergent Approach In this convergent mixed method research design, after analyzing the quantitative and qualitative data separately, data sets were compared for merging results. ide by side comparison method was used for merged data analysis. This method for merging data involves presenting the quantitative results and the qualitative findings together in a discussion so that they can be easily compared (Creswell & Clark, 2011). In this method, discussion becomes the vehicle for merging the results. Thus, in the ensui ng chapters, while discussing the results, quantitative results are presented followed by qualitative results in the form of quotes or vice versa. This is followed by remarks specifying how the qualitative quotes either confirm or disconfirm the quantitat ive results. Data Interpretation and Reporting Interpretation of the results involves stepping back from the detailed results and advancing their larger meaning in view of the research problems. The three general strategies employed in this research for an alysis and interpretation are relying on theoretical propositions, inductive analysis or working data from the ground up and examining rival explanations (Yin, 2014).

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131 The following chapters of this dissertation discuss the results and finding s of this re search. In Chapter 5, I focus on providing background information and context for my case study examination of the Veernam command area. The organization of the description is based on the Social Ecological System Framework (SESF). This is followed by the presentation of conclusion s or interpretations drawn from the separate quantitative and qualitative strands of the study as well as across the quantitative and qualitative strands in Chapter 6. Plausible future scenarios are discussed in Chapter 7. Issues of Validity and Reliability There are validity issues that are unique to mixed method research, and these issues vary depending on the research design (Creswell & Clark, 2011). Hence, a mixed methods researcher needs to consider threats to validity speci fic to the chosen mixed method research design and address them (Creswell, 2014; Onwuegbuzie & Johnson, 2006). This single embedded case study research employs a convergent mixed method design. Therefore, validity issues specific to case study research are discussed first in the following sections before addressing threats to validity in mixed method design. Va lidity and Reliability in Case S tudy Research Methodological rigor and interpretive rigor is considered important for the quality of research and several criteria have been developed for evaluating the quality of case study research. Yin (2014) identifies four tests to establish the quality of case s tudy research, specifically construct validity, internal validity external validity and reliability but also recommends several tactics that should be applied throughout the conduct of the case study for dealing with these four tests. The strategies adop ted in this case study research to address the threats to validity and reliability are described below.

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132 Construct validity The notion of construct validity is associated with identifying correct operational measures for the concepts being studied ( Yin, 2014 ). The two tactics used to increase construct validity in this study are multiple sources of evidence and maintaining a chain of evidence. Multiple sources of evidence. A case study finding or conclusion is considered more convincing and accurate if i t is based on several different sources of information because multiple sources of evidence provide multiple measures of the same phenomenon and enable the development of converging lines of inquiry (Yin, 2014). In this research, data from a variety of s ources, specifically archiv es documents, survey s and interviews, were collected. In the primary data collection process, sampling procedures were chosen to ensure the inclusion of multiple perspectives. Purposive and snowball sampling procedures were emp loyed to include a broad spectrum of the community members and experts in the interview process. Similarly, a stratified sampling technique for administering the survey ensures representation of farmers from all strata. Establishing a chain of evidence A c hain of evidence is established by forming the links that show how findings come from the data that were collected based on the case study protocol and the research question. In order to maintain a chain of evidence in this research, a case study database of the evidence gathered was created and an audit trail was developed. An audit trail is a transparent description of the research steps taken from the start of a research project to the development and reporting of findings. The case study data base of t his research include s case study documents that were collected during a case study, surveys interview notes and transcripts audio files, field notes, and analysis of the evidence. Sufficient information on each step of the study and every decision made during

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133 collection, analysis and interpretation is presented in this chapter as well as in the following chapters. Internal validity. Internal validity is about establishing a causal relationship in research and is an important concern in the data analysis phase of research. In this research, internal validity is e nsured in the analysis and inference phase by explanation building and addressing rival explanation s Explanation building. A phenomenon is explained by stating how or why something happened (Yin, 2014). This study is undertaken to analyze the water transfer process in a selected case. To understand the complex processes and link s it adopted a social ecological system approach. However, in a complex system, it is difficult to measure the causal links in any precise manner. To offset such a lack of precision, theoretical propositions are employed (Yin, 2014) in the analysis of one of the embedded units i.e. the farmers, their adaptive capacity and their responses. In addition an attempt is made to Addressing rival explanations. While analyzing the data and making inferences, all plausible alternatives were included to the maximum possible extent, by calling explicit at tention to other contextual conditions. These aspects and their limitations are further addressed in the section on External validity. External validity refers to the process of generalization i.e. how well the theories and results from one setting can be extended to another (Creswell & Clark, 2011). Though single case studies provide powerful and in depth insights within a research setting, an often cited criticism of single case study researc h is a lack of generalizability of the findings (Yin, 2003). Many rural urban water transfers taking place in the developing

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134 world exhibit characteristics similar to this case, suggesting that the insights and solutions developed in this study may be exte nded to other places. Moreover, this single case study analysis involves analysis of embedded units within the main case. As mentioned above, theoretical propositions are used in the analysis of embedded units. It increases the general applicability of a p art of the research finding s to other social ecological systems. This aspect is discussed further in the concluding chapter. Reliability. Also known as replicability or repeatability in qualitative research, reliability is about demonstrating that resear ch processes, such as data collection procedures, can be repeated with the same results (Creswell & Clark, 2011). Maintaining steps in either direction conclusion s back to initial research questions or from questions to conclusions (Yin, 2003). As mentioned earlier, in this research a chain of evidence is maintained by creating a case study database of the evidence and an audit trail. Va lidity in Mixed M ethod Research This study employs concurrent convergent mixed research design and side by side comparison for merged data analysis. Multiple validities legitimation method is considered a pertinent method for address ing the validity issues in all mix ed research study (Onwuegbuzie & Johnson, 2006). This method suggests addressing the relevant validity issues of the quantitative component and the qualitative component separately and then addressing the threats to mixed research during the integration an d inference phase. Accordingly, the threats to validity in the quantitative component and the qualitative component were considered separately. The strategies adopted to e nsure validity in the quantitative, qualitative and mixed component s are discussed be low.

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135 Validity in the quantitative component. The q uantitative component of this research mainly consist s of the survey instrument. To enhance the construct validity of the survey questionnaire it is recommended to use or develop the survey items based on what has already been tested in past studies (Stone, 1978). In this research, already tested questions from other studies, such as the World Bank Social Capital Assessment tool (SOCAT), and Mar shall, et al. (2011), were used for measuring many variables. In addition a more than 0.7 w ere included in the analysis. Validity in the qualitative component Validity issues in the qualitative component ha ve already been addressed by the four tests for validity in case study research and discussed in the beginning of this section. Validity in the mixed research component Creswell (2014) identifies validity issues specific to merging data and proposes strategies to minimize validity threats. The threats in merging the data in concurrent convergent mixed method research include unclear or inadequate approaches to conver gin g the data and making illogical comparisons between the two results. The strategies adopted in this study to address these two issues, as suggested by Creswell and Clark (2011), are finding and displaying quotes that match the statistical results and side by side comparison and display of data and results. Conclusion This chapter provided a detailed account of the research design and methodology. Within the framework of a single embedded case study research design, four data collection methods, specificall y archival records, documents, semi structured interview s and survey s were utilized A nalysis of quantitative and qualitative data were carried out

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136 separately, and the results were merged through the side by side comparison method All through these processes, the strategies required to e nsure the validity and reliability of research were adhered to consistently. The following chapter includes background information on my single case study examination of the Veer a nam project. Thi s is provided to help situate the research findings, which will be discussed and analyzed within the subsequent chapters.

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137 CHAPTER V CASE STUDY CONTEXT Introduction This chapter provides context for the case study examination of the New Veeranam Project. In this study, the water supplying region, i.e. the Veeranam tank, its command area and the 128 villages in the region, is composed of one Social Ecological System (S ES), and water transfer is considered an external disturbance to the system. The description of the case study follows the structure of the Social Ecological System framework (SESF). The purpose is to describe the wider setting in which the SES is situated the policy contexts, SES characteristics and SES functions. To understand the characteristics of the water transfer project as a disturbance, a background of the project is provided. To provide a brief history and summary of the geographical whereabouts of the Veeranam tank and its command area, the two first tier variables, Social, economic, and political setting (S), and Related ecosystems (ECO), in the framework are described. This is followed by a description of different sets of first tier variables within the SES framework: Resource system (RS), Resource units (RU), Actors (A) and Governance Systems (GS). Next, some unique characteristics of the agrarian society in the region and its transformation in the last century are described. To explain the ra tionale and motivation behind the implementation of the project, the water supply issues in Chennai city are highlighted before describing the project and its history. Finally, water flow in and out of the tank is analyzed to comprehend the changes brought about by the water transfer project.

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138 In this study the word tank is used to refer to the water source since it is a manmade reservoir, though both tank and lake have been found in the documents to refer to the Veeranam Tank. History of Veeranam Tank There spreads an ocean almost overflow, anyone who looks at the Veera Narayana Lake will surely recall with pride and astonishment the splendid deeds of our ancestors in Tamil Nadu. Did those ancients do things merely for the welfare of themselves and the people of their own times? They fulfilled tasks that would benefit thousands of future lake, activities such as ploughing sowing and seed transplanting [are] being carried o ut as far as the eye could see ( Kalki Krishnamurthy, 1950 ) The above description of the Veeranam Tank in the historical novel, Ponniyin Selvan, which is based on a number of historical characters and i ncidents, provides a glimpse of the magnificence of the Veeranam Tank, originally named the Veera Narayanan Tank. This tank was built during the rule of Chola King Paranthaga Cholan I by his son Prince Rajathitar in the 11 th Century (NEERI, 1994). The Veer anam tank was built mainly to prevent the surplus water from Cauvery River and its tributaries from flowing into the sea. In the monsoon dependent regions of Tamil Nadu, significant developments had been made to the system of water management during the C hola Dynasty, one of the longest ruling dynasties of Southern India. Water boards were established to manage and maintain water sources during their rule (Maindhan, n.d.). Tanks that were created in this region over many centuries formed an important part of the traditional water management system

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139 known as Ery systems. The tanks in the region were interlinked, enabling overflow from one tank to another and the distribution of water over a large area. In addition to the tanks, smaller water bodies, known as Kulam, Kuttai and Thangal provided drinking water and recharged groundwater (Mukundhan, 2005). Such tanks and canals were the main sources of irrigation in the region until the middle of the 20 th century. However, in the last 50 years, the tank irrigate d area has declined consistently ( Palanisami & Ester, 2000 ). The Veeranam tank was renovated in the 19 th century during the British period. The canals from the Veeranam tank extended to the nearby port of Parangipettai (Portnova) for navigation purposes, making the tank an important element of not only agriculture, but also o f business and trade (M ainthan, n.d.). Figure 5.1 : Veeranam Tank (full and dry) Geographical Location The Veeranam Tank is situated in the Cuddalore district of Tamil Nadu state, India, specifically in Kattumannar koil and Keerapalayam blocks (refer Fig. 5.2), and between latitudes 11 o o l ongitudes 79 o o geographical area of the veeranam sub basin is 15 ,849 hectares and it falls in Kattumannar koil, Keerapalayam and Kumaratchi blocks, Cuddalore district. It is bounded by the Vellar river basin in the North and the West, by the Coleroon sub basin I in the South and by Vellar river basin and Co leroon sub b asin I in the East (NEERI, 1994)

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140

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141 System Description The following sections describe the characteristics of the Veeranam Tank and its irrigation system using the SESF. The second tier variables in the framework pertinent to this study are listed in Table 5.1. The variables described in this chapter are italicized and they provide the basic characteristics of the system. Analysis of the r emaining variables is presented in Chapter 6. Table 5.1: First and Second Tier V ariables S o c i a l E c o n o m i c, a n d P o li t i c a l S e tt i n g s ( S ) S 2 D e m o g r a p h i c t r e n d s S4 G o v e r n m e n t r e s o u r ce p o li c i e s Re s o u r ce Sys t e ms ( R S ) R S 1 S e c t o r ( e g w a t e r f o r e s t s p a s t u r e f i s h ) R S 2 C l a r i t y o f s y s t e m b o un d a r i e s R S 3 S i z e o f r e s o u r c e s y s t e m R S 4 H u m a n c o n s t r u c t e d f a c i l i t i e s R S 7 P r e d i c t a b il i t y o f s y s t e m d y n a m i cs R S 8 S t o r a g e c h a r a c t er i s t i cs R S 9 L o c a t io n R U 7 Sp a t i a l a n d t e m p o r a l d i s t r i b u t io n RU8 Subtractability G o v e r n a n ce Sys t e ms ( G S ) G S 1 R u l e M a k i n g O r g a n i z a t i o n s G S 4 L e gal s y s t e m s G S 2 I n f o r m al p r o ce du re s G S 3 N e t w o r k s G S 5 R u l e s i n U s e O p e r a ti on a l c ho i c e r u l e s C o ll ec ti v e c ho i c e r u l e s C on s tit u t i on a l c ho i c e r u l e s G S 7 P o li c y T oo ls/ I n s t r u m e n t s Actors (A) A 1 Nu m b e r o f a c t o r s A 2 S o c i o e c o n o m i c a tt r i b u t e s o f a c t o r s A 3 H i s t o r y o f u s e A 4 L o c a t io n A 5 L e a d e r s h i p / e n t r e p r e n e u r s h i p A 6 N o r m s ( t r u s t r e c i p r o c i t y ) / s o c i a l c a p i t a l A7 Mental Model A 8 I m p o r t a nc e o f r e s o u r c e (Dependence) A 9 T e c hn o l o g y us e d INTERACTION (I) OUTCOMES (O) I 1 H a rv e s t i n g l e v e l s and Responses I 5 I n v e s t m e n t a c t i v i t i e s I1a:Diversification I7 Self organizing activities I 8 N e t w o r k i n g a c t i v i t i e s I8a:Network characteristics I8b:State civil society relation System Changes O1 Workforce composition O2 Land use change O3 Agricultural productivity O4 Water availability R e l a t e d E co s y s t e m s ( E C O) E C O 1 C li m a t e p a tt e rn s E C O 3 Water f l o w s i n t o a n d o u t o f f o c al S E S

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142 First and Second Tier Exogenous Variables Related Ecosystems (ECO) Climate and Weather Patterns ( EC O1) The region has a hot tropical climate characterized by a small daily range of temperature and humid weather. The months from March to June are considered summer and the temperatures vary from 31 o C to 42 o C in this season. The ensuing southwest monsoon season lasts until September. October to December constitutes the northeast monsoon season, and the region gets its rainfall mostly during this season which accounts for 72 percent of the total rainfall. The annual normal rainfall for the period (1901 2000) ranges from 1050 to 1400 mm. However, the quantum of normal rainfall fluctuates greatly. Soil type is predominantly clay loam to silty clay loams, and as a result, slightly above average rainfall leads to flooding. The region is a highly cyclone prone zone and often suffers from flooding during the northeast monsoon season. It has been considered a multi hazard prone region ( Cuddalore District Administration, 2013) In 2004, the District endured a severe drought followed by floods and then a tsunami. Analysis of the frequency of droughts in the region indicates that it is susceptible to consecutive drought years. In the last 30 years, the drought years are as follows : 1986 1990; 1994 95; 2001 2003; and 2012 (Refer to fig 5.3). A s light increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in annual rainy days is observed in this region (GOTN, 2013).

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143 Figure 5.3. Rainfall and Drought Years in the Study A rea (Kattumannar Koil Station) ( Source: India Meteorological Department ( IMD ) ) Flows into and out of focal SES (ECO3) : Veeranam Tank and Cauvery River System. The Veeranam tank is part of the Cauvery River System in Tamil Nadu, and it receives water from both the Cauvery River and its own catchment area. The surplus water in the Cauvery River flows into the Coleroon River; the Upper and Lower Anicut built across the Coleroon form the Coleroon Irrigation System; from the Lower Anicut, the 22.5 km long Vadavar Channel feeds the Veeranam tank at the southern end (Refer Fig. 5.4). Two drainage courses, namely Sengal Odai and Karuvattu Odai, drain the water from the c atchment area into the tank. A total of 34 irrigation canals, 28 in the main bund and 6 in the foreshore bund, distribute water from the tank to the fields. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 Rainfall in mm Drought Years

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144 Fig. 5.4: Veeranam Tank and Cauvery River System (Based on NEERI, 1994) The flow from th e Cauvery River through the Vadavar channel has been considerably reduced in the last four decades due to the dispute with a neighboring state Karnataka where the river Cauvery originates. The sharing of Cauvery water between the two states was governed by an agreement that expired in 1974. Since then there has been disagreement between the two states over sharing water. The Cauvery Tribunal that was setup to resolve the issue by the central government has so far not been successful in solving the dispute This has considerably reduced the inflow from the Cauvery River into the Veeranam tank, and as a result, the number of cropping seasons in the region has gradually reduced from three to two and in some areas to one.

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145 Social, Economic, and Political Settings (S) Economic development (S1) The Cuddalore district is generally regarded as an agricultural district. Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited (NLC), a public lignite mining and power generating company is situated in this district. Though there are distilleries, sugar factories, chemical and fertilizer factories, ceramics and refractories, and a number of medium and small scale industries, it is considered one of the industrially backward districts in the state (Census of India, 2001; Cuddalore D istrict Administration, 2013 ). The region has many tourist attractions. Within a 25 mile radius of the tank, there are two important destinations. The n earest temple town Chidambaram is an important pilgrim center. An ancient Hindu temple dedicated to Lord Nataraja and revered as a temple for space, one of the five natural elements, is in Chidambaram. The Pichavaram Mangrove Forest is another important tourist destination. Both these places attract a number of visitors throughout the year. Demographic trends (S2) According to Census (2011) data, Cuddalore district had a population of 2,605,914 of which male s and female s were 1,311,697 and 1,294,217 respectively. The decadal growth from 1991 to 2001 was 7.66 percent, while it was 14.02 percent between 2001 and 2011. As per the 2011 census, 66.03 % of the population of the Cuddalore district lives in the rural areas and 33 .97 percent lives in the urban regions of the district. In the rural areas, male and female literacy stood at 82.85 and 64.48 percent respectively. Governess System and resource policies (S4) : Water law and Policy in India. The National Water Policy formulated by the Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India, seeks to establish basic principles for all activities related to water and provides a

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146 general framework within which the water sector operates. Water policies are non binding and provid e a basis for the legislature to create rights and obligations through water laws and acts. Important features of water law and policy on water rights and inter sectoral allocation are outlined below. Water rights. The use of water in India is regulated by a number of laws and rules. The main forms of control are state control and individual rights. The states in India claim the exclusive rights to decide on where, how when and in what measure water is harnessed and utilized (Cullet & Gupta, 2009). Indivi dual rights are of usufructuary nature, i.e. use rights rather than ownership rights. A distinct feature of water use and rights in India is the presence of different rules for different sources and uses of water. Surface water is considered separately fr om the groundwater, and hence, the rights of individuals and powers of government are different for surface water and groundwater within a region. Different rules for surface water and groundwater use are presented below. Surface water. The g overnment exercises predominant control over all surface water sources and is responsible for their allocation. Individual water rights are mostly linked to land ownership, thus irrigation water entitlements and property rights are closely connected. Landowners can use surface water passing through or bordering their lands for private use, but do not own it (Cullet & Gupta, 2009). Groundwater. Groundwater use is left to private initiative and is subjected to state regulations. There is no separate title of ownershi p over groundwater, as it is considered part and parcel of the land (Cullet & Gupta, 2009). This allows the landowners to collect and dispose of all the water found under their land.

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147 Inter sectoral allocation The first National Water Policy in 1987 and it s subsequent revision in 2002 clearly stated allocation priorities. Water for drinking purposes is to be given top priority followed by agriculture, hydropower, ecology, industry and navigation. These priorities are explicitly done away with in the National Water Policy of 2012 which recommends that water other than what is required for drinking and sanitation, food security and agriculture be treated as an economic good ( Ministry of Water Resources, 2012). First and Second Tier System Variables Resource System (RS) The resource system (RS) is composed of surface water, groundwater, and irrigation infrastructure. The resource unit is highly mobile (RU1). Water availability (RU2) depends on receiving sufficient monsoon rains both in its catchment a nd in the Cauvery River Basin. Thus, the resource unit is characterized by heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution (RS8). These properties affect predictability of system dynamics (RS7). Surface W ater Water availability depends on receiving suffi cient monsoon rains both in its catchment and in the Cauvery River Basin. Thus, the resource unit is characterized by heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution (RS8). These properties affect the predictability of system dynamics (RS 7). Sector (RS1). Surface water from the Veeranam tank was primarily used for irrigation for many centuries. After the implementation of the Veeranam water transfer project, the urban domestic and industrial sector has become part of the system.

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148 System boundary (RS2). Th e physical boundary is reasonably clear. It is bounded by the Vellar river basin in the North and West, by the Coleroon subbasin I in the South and by the Vellar river basin and the Coleroon sub basin I in the East (NEERI, 1994). Within the Cauvery River system, this tank is under the Lower Coleroon Anicut System and the main source of supply for this tank is Vadavar Channel (Refer to Figure s 5.2 & 5.4). In addition, this tank receives a supply from its own catchment area of 165 sq.mile (or) 427.35 Sq.km ( Refer Fig. 5.6). The drainage from the catchment area reaches the tank mainly through two drainage courses namely Sengal Odai and Karuvattu Odai. The maximum inflow of water from the catchment area into the tank is during the Northeast Monsoon period, i.e. October to December. Figure 5.5 : Veeranam Tank and its Command Area (Source : Google Maps, 2013) Size of the resource system (RS3) The tank has an expanse of 28 sq. km. The main bund on the east, formed by an earthen embankment, is 16 km long, and the foreshore bund on the west is 9 km long. The cultivable command area of Veeranam tank is 18,152

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149 hectares. The hydraulic particulars of the tank are provided in Appendix D Table 2. The tank has silted up considerably over the years thereby reducing its storage capacity (RS8). According to the farmers in the region to irrigate all the land in the command area in one season, the tank needs to be filled up 6 to 11 times depending on the rainfall. Human constructed infrastructure (RS4). Open unlined canals are the chief feature of the irrigation system. The water is distributed to the fields through canals from 28 sluices located along the ea stern bund. One canal irrigates land in many villages. Fields in some of the villages are irrigated by more than one canal. Figure 5.6 : Irrigation C anals Cropping s easons. Paddy is the major crop in the study area. This is either single or double cropped. Rice fallow pulses are cultivated in the paddy fields. When there is an assured supply of water, paddy is grown during two seasons: Short duration Kuruvai (May June to Aug Sep) followed by Thaladi or late samba (Sep t Oct to Jan). The s ingle crop season is known as long duration Samba (Sep to Jan). Thus, the cropping system is either paddy paddy pulse or paddy pulse. Presently, due to increasing water scarcity, the paddy pulse system is mostly followed in the study area.

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150 Figure 5.7 : Irrigation Canals and F ields Groundwater. Groundwater level and quality varies within the command area. Thus, groundwater, as an alternate source of water is available in only a few villages. The level of groundwater development ranges from 10% to 90% in the command area and is categorized under the safe to semi critical stage by the Central Groundwater Board (CGWB, 2009). Actors (A) Nu m b e r o f a c t o r s ( A 1 ) and Socio economic a tt r i b u t e s o f a c t o r s (A2). According to the census 1991, the total number of villagers in the command area is 164, 387 (NEERI, 1994). Considering the growth rate in the last two decades in the region is 14.06 % in 2002 2011 and 7% in 1991 2001 Census 2011 data indicates that the workers in the villages are mainly cultivators and agricultural laborers. About 85% of the operational holdings are held by small and marginal farmers accounting for about 44% of the total cultivated area in the countr y (Agriculture Census, 2010 11) which applies to the study area as well. A commonly accepted definition of small farmers does not exist, and the definition has varied over time and by state. This study adopts the following definitions of marginal and smal l farmers: Marginal Farmer means a farmer cultivating (as owner or

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151 tenant or share cropper) agricultural land up to 1 hectare (2.5 acres); Small Farmer means a farmer cultivating (as owner or tenant or share cropper) agricultural land of more than 1 hectar e and up to 2 hectares (5 acres) (GOI, 2008). Governance Systems (GS) Legal systems (GS4 ). The Tamil Nadu government has exclusive rights to decide how water is utilized in the state and has enacted a number of rules on water use. The two most important acts related to water use and management in the state of Tamil Nadu are: The Tamil Nadu farmers' management of irrigation systems rules, 2002; and The Tamil Nadu groundwater (development and management) act, 2003. The Tamil Nadu farmers' manag ement of irrigation systems rules, 2002. The act provides for farmer's participation in the management of irrigation systems and for the delineation of administratively viable Water Users Association (WUA) area. Some of the responsibilities of the Water Us ers Association (WUA) are: prepare and implement an operational plan and a rotational water supply for each irrigation season, prepare a plan for the maintenance of the irrigation system in the area of its operation at the end of each cropping season and r egulate the use of water among the various sluices under its area of operation according to the rotational water supply. Due to the water dispute with the co Act is not e xtended to the Cauvery delta area in Tamil Nadu. Hence, there is no Water Users Association (WUA) in the study area. The Tamil Nadu groundwater (development and management) act, 2003. To provide safeguards against the hazards of groundwater over exploitation and to ensure its planned development and proper management in the State, the Tamil Nadu groundwater

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152 act, 2003 was enacted. However, it was not enforced strictly, and from September 14, 2013, the Act stands repeale d as it was found to not be workable due to the following reasons: potential hardship to agriculturists due to the lack of clear definition s of terms such as marginal farmers and small farmers and not addressing the issue regarding regulation of groundwat er withdrawal for commercial exploitation and construction of multistoried buildings ( Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), 2014). A fresh law at the earliest is urged, as the absence of a legal framework may lead to dangerous consequences (CAG, 2014). Rule making o rganizations (GS1): g overnment agencies. The responsibilities for sources and uses of water are vested with different agencies in the state: water supply to the public for the entire state except for the Chennai Metropolitan Area is handled by the Tamil Nadu Water Supply and the Drainage Board (TWAD Board); water supply to the Chennai city is managed by the Chennai Metro Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB); Irrigation systems are managed by the Water Resources Organization (WRO), Tamil Nadu Public Works Department and Agricultural Department. In the study area, the maintenance and operation of the tank and irrigation systems is the responsibility of the Assistant Engineer, Lalpet Section, and Chidambar am Division of Public Works Department (PWD). The water pumping station, located on the northern end of the tank, is managed by the Chennai Metro Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB). Rules in u se (GS5) : Tamil Nadu water policy. Tamil Nadu State Water Policy was formulated in 1994 based on the National Water Policy 1987. The Tamil Nadu Government is in the process of revising the state policy to include various current

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153 concerns. The revised draft of the Tamil Nadu State Water Policy 2007 has been prepar ed in line with the National Water Policy and awaits the approval of the government (WRO, 2013). Presently, the absence of a revised State Water Policy with legal framework is considered to be the cause of the lack of effective control over surface water a nd withdrawal of ground water by the Public Works Department (PWD), the nodal agency of maintaining water resources (The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), 2013). Constitution rule Existing legal and policy frameworks on water rights and inter sectoral allocation were described under the section on governance system and resource policies (S4). Constitutionally, water is designated as a state subject and is subject to central intervention in matters of inter state rivers and disputes. Coll ective choice rule Tamil Nadu state has enacted irrigation acts to regulate the development and use of surface water within the state. The government is the decision maker in matters concerning the equitable sharing of water between different systems in a basin and between different claimants within a system. In general, laws, regulations and directives as existing are not enforced strictly and fairly, and ad hoc arrangements for diverting water from irrigation projects are found to be common in the state (Vaidyanathan, 2006). Irrigation systems are entirely under the control of the government. The repair and upkeep of main structures are the responsibility of the Tamil Nadu government. In the decision making process regarding new projects and environmenta l aspects, there is apparently no law in place requiring governments to involve or even consult the stakeholders adversely or beneficially affected by a project (Vaidyanathan, 2006).

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154 Operational r ules (GS5) Operational rules for water sharing in the study area are traditionally established. This is known as Murai or the Turn System. This is a time bound system of water rationing adopted between and within villages, both in the normal and deficit supply period s, to share the canal supply either equitably or fairly with all farmers (Vaidyanathan, 1989). Agrarian Society and Its T ransformation Farming and rural livelihood in India are influenced by myriad events and governmental policies, and they have been tran sformed by many forces since the middle of the last century. The transformation of agrarian society in the study area is discussed below. Transformation of the Traditional Rural Ag rarian Society a nd Practices Traditional agrarian society in the study region has been influenced and transformed in the last century by many factors such as the green revolution, the land ceiling acts, the Cauvery River dispute, reservation policies, and urban development. As a result, fragmentation of land ownership, land transfer, and changes in agricultural practices have taken place. The following section summarizes the major changes that occurred in the study area in the last century to gain an understanding of the factors that led to its current conditions. Caste syste m and reservation policies. For many centuries, the caste system, as a dominant principle of social organization, permeated through several aspects of Indian society and categorized society into discrete groups by profession. There are four basic social classes or castes known as Varnas ( Smith, 1994 ). These castes exist in a hierarchical relationship to one another. In descending order, they are: Brahmins (priests and scholars);

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155 Kshatryas (landowners, rulers and warriors); Vaisyas (commoners and merch ants); and Sudras (craftsmen, servants and laborers). An additional caste, not included in the main Varna or caste system, is Dalits formerly known as Untouchable s From these basic castes, thousands of separate subdivisions or jatis were formed over centu ries. In ancient India, these divisions were based on individual qualifications and not based on birth. However, later it became hereditary, closed and exclusionary ( Smith, 1994 ). Under such a rigid system, a person born into a caste remained within it, preventing the lower caste from climbing higher and restricting his or her economic progress. When India achieved independence from Great Britain in 1947, reservation policies wer e created to end the caste system and the related oppression. Quota systems were established to provide political voice, access to education, and opportunities for government employment to the historically disadvantaged groups. However, even today, caste r emains an important aspect of village life and in many villages people live in caste specific neighborhoods or areas within the villages. Castes in the study area. Three castes that predominantly existed in the study area were as follows: Pillai, conside red the upper class or forward community, owned most of the land in the region; Vanniyar, a backward caste community, owned minimum land and also worked as tenant farmers; and Pallar a lower class or scheduled caste, were employed as agricultural laborers by the Pillai and Vanniyar Thus, traditional society was highly stratified, and it was characterized by highly skewed caste based land ownership. Land transfers and the shift to non agricultural occupations In the first half of the 20 th century, the upper caste Pillai community started to migrate to urban areas for

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156 higher education and non agricultural white collar jobs. The Vanniyar community leased land from the Pillai and cultivated it by employing Pallar as agricultural laborers. A Nadu to enable equitable distribution of land to the landless: Tamil Nadu Land Reforms (Fixation of Ceiling on Land) Act, 1961; and Tamil Nadu Land Reforms (Reduction of Ceiling on Land) Act, 1970. According to the 1970 act, the land ceiling for a family of no more than 5 members was 15 standard acres ( Commissionerate of Land Reforms, n.d. ). For families with more than five members, an additional amount of five standard acres was allowed for each additional family member. The overall ceiling limit for a family was set a t 40 standard acres. Prior to the enactment of this act, land was sold by large farmland owners. In the study area, Vanniyar caste people who used to work as tenan ts bought farmland from Pillai caste people. Due to the Cauvery water dispute (Refer variable ECO3 description) and the resultant reduction in the number of cropping seasons, Pillai caste people continued to sell the land. Still Pillai caste people occupy a substantial proportion of farmland in the villages and often times, one member of the family in the village manages the land of many close relatives who live in the cities. The farmland is continuing to be transferred from the higher to the lower caste people. As a result, the rigid structure of caste based land ownership has loosened slightly in the study area. Fragmentation of land ownership. In the following decades, the division of farmland among family members resulted in further fragmentation of land ownership. As a result, small large and medium farms were substantially replaced by small farms.

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157 Green r evolution. To overcome limitations of food grain production in independent India, the green revolution was designed in the middle of the 20 th ce ntury. This transformed farming practices in many regions and enabled farmers to obtain increasing returns from agriculture through greater utilization of agricultural inputs. In the study region, the transformation was characterized by a shift to High Yielding Varieties (HYV) of crops, a large increase in fertilizer and pesticide use, expansion and mechanization of irrigation, and intensification of paddy production. More recently, green revolution has been criticized for the following consequences: re ndering the farmers heavily dependent on external inputs; elimination of traditional crop varieties and practices; and depletion and pollution of water. Specifically, the lowering of the groundwater table is attributed to green revolution strategies. Well irrigation was favored by the green revolution in order to gain better control over irrigation water. In many areas this has led to over extraction of groundwater, as High Yielding Varieties (HYV) call for increased irrigation. As a result, during the 19 50s, nearly 40% of the net irrigated area in Tamil Nadu was irrigated by tanks, but this has been reduced to less than 20% in recent years. At the same time, the share of ground water irrigation has increased from around 25% to nearly 50% (Palanisami & Est er, 2000). SES D isturbance : Description and Characteristics of Water Transfer P roject In order to understand the rationale behind the implementation of the project this section begins with a discussion o f water issues in Chennai and the history of the project. This is followed by a description of the project and its impacts. Next, water inflow into and outflow from the tank for the past 30 years (1982 2012) are analyzed to comprehend the changes in the wa ter flow.

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158 The C ity of Chennai Chennai, formerly Madras, is the capital of Tamil Nadu and the fourth largest Metropolitan City in India The population of the Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) is 8.69 million and it extends over 1189 Sq.km (Census of India, 2011). The Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) is compris ed of the city of Chennai, 16 Municipalities, 20 Town Panchayats (Councils) and 214 Village Panchayats in 10 Panchayat Unions. The city of Chennai has a population of 4.68 million and is governed by a Municipal Corporation. The extent of the city is 176 sq.km. Economic activities. Chennai has a diversified economic base. It has a number of large and heavy industries in the public sector and several automobile industries (CMDA, 2008). The a utomobile, computer, technology, hardware manufacturing and healthcare largest exporter of information technology and business process outsourcing services. There are ab out 15,000 industries and factories licensed in Chennai City (Corporation of Chennai, 2013). Chennai City alone accounts for 10.94 percent of the State income, and CMA accounts for 16.21 percent (CMDA, 2008) Water Issues. Chennai does not have access to a perennial source of water, and it depends primarily on three interconnected r a in fed reservoirs and groundwater. The Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB), commonly called nicipality area. It supplies water from the three rain fed reservoirs and well fields outside the city (CMWSSB, 2011). More recently, water from inter basin transfer projects and desalination plants are obtained for supply. The city has a very low per capi ta water availability. The per capita water supply

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159 in Chennai City was 76 lpcd in 2001 ( Ruet, Saravanan, & Zerah, 2002) and 87 lpcd in 2005 2006. (Asian Development Bank, 2007) Fig ure 5.8 : Chennai Location and the New Veernama Project (Source: CMWSSB, 2 011) Description and Characteristics o f Water Transfer Project History and Timeline The plan to draw water from the Veeranam tank has a long history and has always been a controversial project. The New Veeranam Project or Chennai Water Supply Augmentation Project I is actually the third version of the project. One of the two political parties, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam ( DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Mu nnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), has been in power in Tamil Nadu since 1967. Twice in the history of the project the government abandoned the project proposed by the previous government, questioning the feasibility. The timeline from its initial conception to final implementation is presented below. The following description is primarily based on the information provided in the Chennai Metrowater website.

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160 1967: The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a state political p arty, assumed power in 1967 in Tamil Nadu and proposed the Veeranam water supply scheme to provide 180 mld of water to Chennai. 1972: Construction of the project began, and precast concrete pipes were placed along part of the demarcated route. 1977 : After the dismissal of the DMK regime, the project, steep ed in controversy over quality and corruption issues, was abandoned by the ensuing AIADMK government. The concrete pipes along the demarcated route, remaining idle for three decades, became part of the la ndscape in the region ; in some places the concrete pipes served as shelter for the homeless. Figure 5.9 : Pre cast Concrete Pipes Serving as Shelters for the H omeless. (Source: Halarnkar, 1998 ) 1993 (August) : The AIADMK Government revived the project at an estimated cost of Rs 4640 million. Of this, Rs 600 million was meant for increasing the capacity of the tank and Rs.4040 million was allotted for transmission and distribution work. A feasibility study was carried out from 1993 95 and the project details were prepared. 1996 (August): Again a change of Government stalled the project. The TN Government led by the DMK party dropped the project questioning the viability of the project.

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161 2001 (August ): When the AIADMK party came to power in 2001, the project was revived and renamed the Augmentation Project I (CWSAP I). 2002 : Due to the absence of monsoon s for consecutive years, the reservoirs ser ving Chennai went completely dry. 2003 : The piped water supply system in the city was shut down for almost a year ; the water supply to Chennai City was maintained through tankers. The Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB) was directed to execute this work on a war footing The New Veeranam Project works commenced in November 2002, but the formal launching of the project works was held on 2.2.2003 in a Government function at Cuddalore. The completion of the project was widely seen as a matter of prestige for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) Government. 2004: On completion of the trial operation in September, the project came under full operation from October. However, due to the lack of water in the Veeranam Tank, 45 deep bore wells were dug in the nearby area and the groundwater was pumped into the infrastructure built for the New Veeranam Project. 2004 present : Water from Veeranam Tank is tapped for city use on a continuous basis. The total water treatment capacity for Chennai city is 1,398 MLD (Million Liters per Day) and the capacity of the water treatment plant near Veernam tank is 180 MLD. Between the years 2009 and 2012, approximately 10 % to 19% of the total water supplied to the city was obtained from the Veeranam Tank. During the dry seasons, farmers in the Veeranam command area continue to organize protests and demand more water from the tank for irrigat ion purposes.

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162 2013: When the tank went completely dry, Rs.400 million was sanctioned by the Tamil Nadu state government to desilt the tank and increase its storage capacity. N o action was taken until the end of the year. Project d escription The project pl an that was ultimately implemented in 2003 2004, had two components: i) source development works to increase the capacity of the tank, and ii) laying transmission line to transport the water to Chennai city. The source development works were executed by t he Public Works Department (PWD), and a water conveyance line was implemented by the Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB). Component I: source development works. The most important part of this component was increasing the storage capacity of Veeranam tank from 930 mcft (million cubic feet) to 1,465 mcft. It included many sub components: improvements to the Vadavar channel and other irrigation channels; strengthen ing the existing bunds and forming new bunds; raising height of the surplus weir in the main tank bund; and provision of inlet arrangements in the foreshore bund for allowing flood water to move from the catchment area to the tank. Component II: w ater c onv eyance system. This component included all the infrastructure required for the treatment, conveyance and distribution of water from the Veeranam tank in the Cuddalore district to the water distribution station at Porur near Chennai. In this water conveyan ce system, the raw water from the northern end of the tank is pumped at Sethiathope to the water treatment plant located at Vadakuthu. The treated water is then pumped to the break pressure tank and from there the water is conveyed by gravity to the water distribution station in Chennai. From this distribution station at Porur,

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163 water is distributed to Chennai City through water distribution stations. The overall distance from the Veeranam Tank to Porur is about 235 km. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) The Tamil Nadu Water Supply and Drainage (TWAD) Board, in concurrence with the World Bank, engaged the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) in 1994 to prepare the environmental assessment of the project. According to the Environmen tal Impact Assessment (EIA) report, increased capacity under Component I of the project will allow for greater access to irrigation water for local farmers. (NEERI, 1994). Since there will not be any reduction in traditional irrigation water rights, no socio economic impact was anticipated in the EIA report. Based on the feedback from the World Bank, three public meetings were organized in the project area and the impact statemen t was modified. An addendum to the s the Government will issue a government order on operational rules and continue the process of public consultations to ensure full cons ensus in the application of the operating rules (World Bank, 1995). Potential positive impact of the project Many potential benefits to the water supplying regions are listed in the EIA: an increase in the potential for fisheries; an increase in the gro undwater table; diversity of plant species; an increase in nesting sites, habitats, and bird migration; diversity of animal species; micro climatic changes; and improvement in the aesthetics of the area with the potential for tourism promotion. In addition a positive impact on the local economy is envisaged by the potential short term and long term employment of the local population in the construction and operation phases of the project.

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164 Lacuna in Implementation and O peration The performance reviews of th e New Veeranam Project by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India is presented in the Audit Report (Civil), Tamil Nadu for the Year 2004 05. The audit report observes that while the transmission component of the project had been completed, the source development works were incomplete. Raising doubts about the effectiveness of the temporary make shift arrangements to store water for long periods at the full tank level, it states that the objective of storing additional water in the tank was not achieved. It goes on to point out that completion of the work in the immediate future is not possible, as the work can be carried out only when the tank is dry (CAG, 2006). Water Flow Analysis The water inflow into the tank and flow in the irrigation cana ls from 1982 to 2012 are analyzed to understand the changes in water distribution after the implementation of the New Veeranam Project. Figure 5.10 illustrates the monthly inflow into the tank. Breaks in the flow line indicate periods of no inflow. Large g aps in the flow line before 2004 indicate that the duration of no flow periods were longer and there was inflow only during cropping seasons. After 2004, the duration of no flow periods are shorter. It should be noted that rainfall in the region influence s the inflow into the tank. The year 2005 experienced unprecedented floods. There were five drought years between 1983 and 1990. Other drought years are 2001 2003 and 2012.

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165 Fig ure 5.10 : Inflow into the Veeranam Tank (Source: PWD, Lalpet) Water flow in the irrigation canal is analyzed to determine if there are variations before and after water transfer. The flow is analyzed in two different periods in a year, i.e. cropping and non cropping season. August to January is the cropping season. The early sa mba season starts in August and late samba season in October. Rice harvesting is done in January followed by the cultivation of green or black gram. The graph shows the flow in both the irrigation and metrowater canals on the primary axis. The secondary axis shows the water level in the tank Water flow in cropping season. Before 2004, in the dry years water was not stored in the tank even during the cropping seasons for many months. After the implementation of the water transfer project, water is stored almost throughout the cropping season. Even in drought years, such as 2012, the tank was dry for only a short period. However, there is an observable change in the flow in the irrigation canals (Refer 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 StorageLevel in Ft Inflow

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166 to Figure 5 .11). While the metro flow is maintained at a n almost uniform level, the flow in the irrigation channel has reduced considerably after 2004. Figure 5.11: Flow in Irrigation and Metro C anals Cropping S eason (Aug Jan) (Source: PWD, Lalpet) Figure 5.12 : Flow in Irrigation and Metro C anals N on cropping season (Feb July) (Source: PWD, Lalpet) 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Water level in the Tank in Ft Water Flow in Cusecs Year StorageL evel in Ft Irrigation Canals Metro 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Axis Title Axis Title Axis Title StorageLevel in Ft IrrigationCanals Metro

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167 Wa ter flow in non cropping season. As the secondary axis in Figure 5.12 indicates, water is stored throughout the non cropping season after 2004, and it is transferred to Chennai almost continuously except for one or two months a year. However, there is no flow at all in the irrigation canals. Particularly, after 2004 there is no flow in the irrigation canals in the late summer months. Water flow in this pe riod indicates the possibility of two cropping season s that year. Disturbance Characteristics The rainfall data and the project history show that whenever water scarcity in Chennai was particularly severe, the government of Tamil Nadu proposed or revived t he project as a reactive measure. When the monsoon fails to arrive Chennai city, which depends on rain fed reservoirs, needs more water. As a result, after the implementation of the water transfer project, the maximum possible volume of water is transferred from the tank to Chennai in dry years. Thus, the intensity of w ater scarcity in the water supplying region during dry years is further amplified by the water transfer project. The water flow analysis indicates that there is a considerable increase of the inflow into the tank, particularly during the non cropping seas on. However, though water is stored in the tank throughout the year, flow in the irrigation canals has been reduced after the implementation of the New Veeranam Project. Thus, the project has resulted in changes in the duration and level of water storage i n the tank as well as the flow in the irrigation canals. Based on the classification of disturbances by Schoon (2010), disturbances can be categorized as a flow disturbance to the SES. Attributes of th is disturbance, such as frequency, amplitude, predict ability and scope, can be partially inferred based on the above water flow analysis. The change in the flow is continuous and thus it is frequent. Based

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168 on the difference in flow before and after the 2004 amplitude, predictability and scope can be charac terized to a certain extent, but they cannot be analyzed in isolation taking into account the water data alone. The change in the flow is greatly influenced by the rainfall in the region and needs to be scrutinized further. Moreover, predictability, a sub jective attribute, needs to be discussed based on the analysis of the perception of the farmers. In addition, certain technical requirements for pumping water to Chennai and operational rules add more complex characteristics to the water transfer process as a disturbance. Therefore, these attributes of the flow disturbance, and if and how it affects the other parameters in the SES, particularly network or connectivity, will be analyzed in the subsequent chapters. Conclusion In this chapter, a range of ba ckground information was presented to provide the context for my case study examination of the Veeranam water transfer project. Beginning with the history of the tank, the study area characteristics as variables in the SESF were discussed. This was follow ed by a description of the water transfer project as a disturbance to the SES. Finally, based on the analysis of water flow for the past 30 years, characteristics of the disturbance were described. In the next chapter, I begin my analysis and discussion of my research findings by addressing the first research objective pertaining to the responses of the water supplying region to water transfer and the factors and processes that shape the responses.

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169 CHAPTER VI SOCIAL SYSTEM RESPONSES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS Introduction The focus of this chapter is on the responses to water transfer by rural farming communities, and it discusses the results of the surveys and interviews to meet the first water transfer and their characteristics. Thus, it mainly focuses on one of the embedded units in the case study, specifically farmers. Responses are actions and eve nts that occur in reaction t o disturbances (Fleischman, 2010 ). The analysis of responses has been carried out with the aim of identify ing both successful and potentially unsustainable responses to get insight into a number of issues: How do the actual and perceived water transfer induced changes to water flows affect the responses of the farmers? Have the water use conflicts been amplified or resolved by the water users in the supplying region? Has the water transfer provided learning situations, and if s o, what have the actors learned? Has it acted as a necessary trigger for the actors to be innovative? Does the system possess the capacity for adaptive maintenance or transformation? What are the attributes that reveal the adaptive capacity in the social system? Are any latent attributes identified in the literature present in the system? What characteristics identified by the analysis can be used by policy makers and communities to achieve positive futures while implementing water transfer projects? The a nswers inform the construction of future scenarios in Chapter Seven and the exploration of if and how

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170 water transfer policy and planning processes can be optimized to incorporate measures to balance the trade offs between and within the rural and urban systems. To capture the complexity of the response process, both quantitative and qualitative are carried out (Refer to Chapter Three for the description of mixed me thod data analysis). Although such analyses have been undertaken in the context of climate change, particularly drought in many rural communities, as a disturbance bringing change to SESs, a water transfer project differs from a drought in many ways: the c hanges are enduring and almost permanent; it exacerbates, even more, the water scarce conditions during a drought; accessibility and distribution of water, in addition to availability, are concerns. This research has specifically attempted to analyze the r ole of the water transfer project by project. This chapter begins with a economic profiles, resource dependency, social capital, perception of water issues, and the relationship between them. Next, the responses of individual farmers and the collective action by the community are discussed. Then, to explore the factors influencing the analyzed. Further, the characteristics of the response space and what it means for the characteristics of SES, particularly in terms of response capacity, resilience and transformation capacity, are discussed. Finally, various propositions related to individual and community adaptation and adaptive capacity are examined.

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171 This section presents an analysis of the characteristics of the farmers and communities in the stu dy area, which in turn depicts the social system within the chosen SES. First, socio economic profiles of the respondents are presented includ ing age, gender, education, income, economic activities, household size, and the farming experience of the respon dents. It is followed by a discussion on social capital, resource dependency and the perception s of the farmers. Variations in the characteristics of farmers based on the location and farmer types are analyzed in detail. Socio E conomic P rofile Age. The sur vey respondents are required to provide their perception of changes in water availability, farming and the regional characteristic s in the last 10 years i.e., after the implementation of the water transfer project in 2004, and they need to be involved in farming activities as a cultivator or laborer. As a result, the majority of respondents were above 30 years old. The average age of the participants is 48, while the minimum and maximum ages are 29 and 77 respectively. The age group claiming the largest share is between 40 to 59 years old The age group 40 to 59 years accounts for one third of the respondents (i.e. 33%). R espondents younger than 39 represent 24.7%, and respondents between 50 and 59 years represent 27.1%. The age distribution of respondents according to the location and farm size is displayed in Table 6.2. Under all farmer types, the majority of respondents are between 29 and 59 years old Moreover, there are no respondents over 70 years old in the leasing and large farmer catego ries, and there is no significant variation in age distribution between head and tail village respondents.

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172 Years of residence and t emporary migration. The average duration of residence for a respondent is 45.4 years and the maximum is 77 years. Many respon dents temporarily migrate to other regions for a few weeks or months out of the year. This category constitutes 11.4% (i.e. 19 out of 166 the respondents). They are considered as continuously residing in the study area. With these considerations, 80.7% of the respondents (134) have lived in the same region since birth. 19.3 % (32) had lived off the command area a t some time in their lifetime. Table 6.1: Socio economic Profile Descriptive Statistics I Maximum Minimum Mean Standard Deviation Age 77.0 29.0 48.3 10.5 Years of Edu 21.0 .0 8.1 3.8 Farming Experience 60.00 2.00 22.81 12.40 Non farm Works Experience 45.00 .00 15.73 13.37 Land Owned 20.00 .03 3.42 3.83 Number of family members 14.0 1.0 4.8 1.8 Gender. An overwhelming majority of the respondents in the sample are males (92.8%). Although women are involved in and support the farming activities, particularly in the families of leasing and marginal farmers, men managed the farming activities and volunteered to participate in the survey. There are very few women farmers in the study area and there are 12 female respondents (7.2 %) in the sample. Education. Literacy status is generally perceived as the ability of a person to read and write in a given language. Out of 166 respondents, ten r espondents (6.0%) have never gone to school and cannot read or write. Hence, the level of educational attainment among respondents ranged from being uneducated to highly educated, possessing a doctora l degree. There were 36 respondents (21.7%) who had an elementary school level education.

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173 Nearly one third (34.3%) of the literate farmers were educated up to a middle school level and one fourth (26.5%) had a high school or secondary level education. There were three one farmer, a retired teacher and now a full time farmer, with a doctora l degree. The number of years of education of the respondents according to the location and farm size is displayed in Table 6.2. It can be inferred from the table that the number of years of education is sign ificantly related to farm size. Fig ure 6.1 : Farm Size and Education L evel Household size and characteristics. The average size of a household is 4.8 members. The overall variations in the number of members range from one to as many as 14 members in a household. It is found that 92 of the 166 respondents (55.5%) have five

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17 4 to six members in the family. The next bigg est household size is four to six members, re presenting 26.5 percent of the total sample. The institution of family or household is defined as a group of persons having kinship or blood ties with one another, having one oven for cooking food (Munian, 2010 ). Based on the content of the relationship, the families are classified into uni member, nuclear family and joint family. A uni member household is a single person living in a house. Nuclear families represent husband, wife and unmarried children, while joint family includes other types of blood relatives as well. The percentage distribution of different sizes of families shown in Table 6.2 indicates that most of the respondents live in a joint family system, at least with one of the parents. It is consp icuous that uni member families are rare and they represent 0.9 per cent of the total households surveyed. The majority of respondents, 81.3% (135), are the only person in the family involved in agriculture and 13.9 % of the respondents (23) had one other person in the family helping them. Economic c onditions i ncome. The annual income reported by respondent s ranged from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 180,000. The average annual income is Rs 42,450. The frequency distribution of annual income shows that 17 respondents (10.2%) earn less than Rs. 20,000 in a year. Respondents in the income range of Rs.20, 000 to 40,000 contain the most numbers, with 64 respondents (38.6%), followed by the Rs. 40,000 to 60,000 range with 47 respondents (28.3 %). The distribution of annual income according to the farm and HH size and education level is shown in Table 6.2. Therefore, it can be observed that income is related to farm size and education.

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175

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177 Accuracy of data on i ncome. In the study area, wages for agricultural labor are often paid in kind. In addition, many respondents reported their agricultural earnings in terms of bags of rice. The market rate of rice varies in different seasons and the average rate of rice in the study area over the previous two years is used to calculate the income. In general, a te ndency to report the minimum income or failing to include secondary or tertiary sources of income, such as wages earned in the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) or the 100 day work scheme, was observed. This act guarantees 100 days of public employment per year to adult members of any rural Indian household willing to perform unskilled manual work at the statutory minimum wage. Thus, the income reported here cannot be considered accurate and it can only be considered to provide an approximate range of income Economic activities. Agriculture continues to be one of the most important economic activities in the study area. In order to capture a clear picture of livelihood activities and their changing charac teristics, the survey collected primary and secondary sources of income. The survey revealed that 75% of the respondents partake in more than one economic activity Out of 166 respondents, 41 respondents (24.7 %) are only involved in farming and the remain ing 125 (75.3%) are involved in other economic activities in addition to farming. Almost all the respondents reported agriculture as their primary economic activity, though it is not their primary source of income. However, in this study, the economic act ivity that contributes more substantially primary economic activity. With this consideration, 69 respondents (41.6 %) have farming as their primary source of income, and all of them are either medium or large f armers.

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178 Others reported one of the following occupations as their primary: Agricultural Laborer, thirds (64.5%) (i.e. 107 of the respondents) w orked for 100 days a year under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) or 100 day work scheme. Other activities closely associated with farming, such as livestock rearing, are not found to be remunerative by respondents. The f requency distribution of economic activities and farming types and location s are given in Table 6.3. Farming e xperience. Farming experience varied from a minimum of 2 years to a maximum of 60 years. The range of 20 30 years of experience, with 50 responde nts (30%), applies to the most number of farmers. Exactly one fourth of the farmers (42 respondents) have 11 20 years of experience. The frequency distribution of farming experience shows that the majority of leasing farmers have the least experience (Refe r to Table 6.3) There are 28 leasing farmers with less than 10 years of farming experience, confirming the emergence of this new category of farmers in the region after the implementation of the water transfer project. Years of experience in non agricultur e occupations indicate that many of them have recently taken up a secondary economic activity. Farming characteristics. Area of l and owned The average area of land owned by the farmers is 3.42 acres. The minimum area of land owned, excluding leasing farmers, is 0.3 acres and the maximum is 20 acres. In the case of the large farmers, each one officially owned around 20 acres.

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179 However, many of them managed farm lands of very close relatives and reported manag ing 40 to 100 acres of land. Number of cropping seasons. Most of the respondents (i.e. 141 farmers or 84.9%) cultivate a crop in one season known as Samba (Paddy followed by black gram) and 18 farmers (10.8%) cultivate in two seasons. Depending on water availability, 7 (4.2%) farmers cultivate in either one or two seasons. Caste. The farmers in the study area belong to different castes. A brief description of the caste system in India is p rovided in Chapter Five. Though the survey questionnaire did not include an item on caste, the caste of each respondent was easily identifiable in the field. In most villages, each caste had separate neighborhoods. Particularly, colonies of the lower caste, officially designated as the Scheduled Caste (SC), were separated from the main village. Each caste had dif ferent temples T hus while answering the question on collective action, almost all respondents mentioned the temple festival and their caste. Based on field observation, key informant interviews and the history of the region, it can be stated that all me dium and large farmers belong to the Pillai caste ( the Forward caste), Reddiar ( the Backward caste), or Vanniyar caste ( the Most backward caste ) and the majority of small farmers are either Vanniyar or SC. Almost all marginal and leasing farmers belong to the Scheduled Caste. Social Capital Social capital, a multidimensional concept, is determined by collecting information on the following structural and attitudinal components: trust, norms of reciprocity, collective action, leadership, networks, informatio n and communication, social inclusion, and empowerment and political action. Social capital influences the performance of

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180 individuals and societies at the economic, social, and political levels, and high social capital allows farmers to overcome collectiv e action problems. The current levels of social capital and its distribution in the study population by basic socio demographic characteristics are discussed in this section. Trust and r eciprocity The minimum and maximum possible values for trust and reci procity are 1 and 5. Among the respondents, the mean score for trust and reciprocity components are average : 3.39 and 3 respectively. Trust and reciprocity scores are lowest amongst large farmers, but there were only 6 respondents in this category. Between head and tail end villages, the tail end farmers had a comparatively lower score. The survey respondents and the interviewees attributed decreasing trust and reciprocity components among community members to the increasing dependency on individual educati on and skill for livelihood rather than cooperative work like farming. Table 6. 4: Social Capital Scores Location Farm Size Total Head Tail Leasing Marginal Small Medium Large Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Trust 3.29 3.39 3.19 3.32 3.43 3.23 3.26 2.89 Reciprocity 2.84 3.00 2.69 2.48 2.92 3.05 2.97 2.44 Collective Action 4.05 4.03 4.07 3.96 3.92 4.19 4.10 4.29 Collective action The scores for the collective action component are comparatively higher, with a mean score of 4.05. The high collective action score can be attributed to the organization of temple festivals. Every year people belonging to the same caste pool their resources and organize temple festivals. However, in a few villages, other collecti ve actions, such as cooperatively buying land for the construction of common

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181 facilities like a community center and school and petitioning for improvement of public facilities, were reported. The collective action score linearly increased with farm size a nd decreased with age. Membership in organizations. There are myriad organizations that exist in the region formed by government initiatives, political parties and individuals such as the Farmers Club, Tamizhaga Vivasayigal Sangam (Non political), the Far mers wing of the Communist party, and Farmers associations of different irrigation canals. Though there are many organizations, each of them work independently and there is no single organization that unites all farmers in the region. Due to the Cauvery River dispute and pending court cases, watershed improvement measures, such as participatory irrigation programs, are not implemented in the study region by the state government. As a result, Water Users Associations are not formed. Organizations formed b y government initiatives. level informal forums, organized by rural branches of banks with the support and financial assistance of the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), and aim to facilitate farmers credit, extension services, technology and markets. A Farmers Club in a village has an elected president, but most farmers are not members. Primary Agriculture Cooperative Credit Societies are directly linked with farmers, and they provide cre dit to the farmers, distribute inputs like fertilizers and also run outlets under the Public Distribution System. They provide short term and medium term credit for agriculture and allied activities based on the land area. However, while land owning farmer s are eligible for credit, landless leasing farmers are not benefitted by these credit systems.

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182 Table 6.5: Membership in Organizations Membership in Organizations Location Farm Size Head Tail Total Leasing Marginal Small Medium Large No 62 (37.3%) 68 (41.0%) 130 (78.3%) 39 (23.5%) 34 (20.5%) 28 (16.9%) 25 (15.1%) 4 (2.4%) YES 21 (12.7%) 15 (9.0%) 36 (21.7%) 1 (0.6%) 6 (3.6%) 12 (7.2%) 15 (9.0%) 2 (1.2%) Many farmers are aware of organizations, such as Tamizhaga Vivasayigal Sangam (Non members of these associations, they participate in their activities. These two organizations raise awareness for ase of the water transfer project, Tamizhaga Vivasayigal Sangam has published many pamphlets explaining the consequences of the project and organized protest demanding more water at various locations. These are discussed in detail under the section on comm unity responses to water transfer. Most of the farmers are not part of any existing organization. Merely 36 respondents (27.1 %) are members of some organization and the percentage of membership increased with farm size. More farmers in the head end vill ages (21 25%) are members of an organization compared to the tail end villages (15 18.1%). Though the percentage of membership is very low, farmers have participated in the organizational activities without any membership Most farmers think there is no organization in the region that will benefit them. Most leasing, marginal and small farmers exp lained their inability to participate by saying day matters are so complex and they do not

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183 have time to participate in organizational As the survey result s show, farm size has an influence on organizational membership. Leadership. The study region falls within three assembly constituencies and there are three elected members of the legislative assembly. In addition, there ar e rural panchayat (village or small town council) presidents under panachayat raj rule who are responsible s about elected representatives and the presence of tradition al local leaders. O pinion about elected local representatives varies considerably among the villages. Most people accepted that there is corruption everywhere and at all levels. Although the overall score on the performance of local elected representatives is low, in certain villages it is high. Thus, these results show that there are some elected leaders working for the community. In many villages, there are no traditional local village leaders. As explained in the transition of agricultural communities i n the system in Chapter Five, the concept of large farmers as traditional village leaders has disappeared with the exit of large farmers, land ownership change and the entry of medium and small farmers in the agriculture sector A v illage level analysis of surveys shows significant difference s and high social capital scores in certain villages. These villages had at least one large or medium farmer, considered a local leader by many survey respondents because they inform other marginal and small farmers abo ut government schemes, take efforts to bring experts to villages when there is an infestation of crops and contribute resources to clear irrigation canals or lay internal roads. As an interviewee (II) highlighted, current small farmers have traditionally w orked for large farmers for many generations. In previously existing conditions, large farmers

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184 took up the leadership role and dealt with matters related to government and other external networking matters. Thus, most small and marginal farmers are not pro active, expect others to help them, and do not possess leadership qualities. Social i nclusion. Caste wise festivals and temple activities, accepted as a long standing tradition, take place in every village and other castes do not participate in the organization of such festivals. With matte r s related to farming, no respondent complained about exclusion based on caste. However, a few marginal and small farmers complained that they do not get to know about government schemes, since only a few wealthy a nd well informed farmers receive all the benefits first. Information and communication. Village related matters are communicated through friends and relatives in villages. Farm related information, such as government schemes, are communicated through other villagers and sometimes through the media. Weather related information is obtained only through media, and key informants stressed the need for advanced information about the rain forecast, as farming in the region has become more dependent on the rains. Inference. The scores of various social capital components in the study area are mostly average. The collective action score is comparatively higher, in spite of average attitudinal and structural social capital scores, due to the continuation of collecti ve traditional practices, such as organizing temple festivals. The low social capital scores and lack of collective action related to agriculture is considered a cause for concern, as an interviewee (II) points out: In agriculture, an individual cannot survive alone. In all the other professions, market based activities and competitions, one can achieve with individual talent

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185 alone, but in agriculture unity and integrated actions are important. More emphasis on indiv idual actions and lack of cooperation among farmers has led to the degradation of the agriculture in this region However, some villages have higher social capital scores, which may be attributed to the presence of local community leaders. There is no si gnificant variation in the attitudinal component of social capital among different types of farmers. However, the structural component, such as networks and organizational memberships, is low among leasing, marginal and small farmers. While the farmers sha re information about farm practices, there are no collective initiatives for developing innovative practices to solve their problems. Resource Dependency In this study, the measurement of dependency on water resources included social, economic and environm ental components as opposed to traditional economic measures associated with quantification of inputs and outputs alone. The survey included questions related to the following dimensions of resource dependency: attachment to occupation, employability, fami ly characteristics, attachment to place, business size and approach or financial status, ability to cope with change, and groups and networks (horizontal and vertical ties) related to resources and farming. Based on the analysis of survey items and intervi ews, the nature and magnitude of the sensitivity of the farmer to water availability are described. Attachment to occupation. The scores for attachment to occupation are high across all categories of farmers. The scores are higher for medium and large farmers, and, predictably, lowest for the leasing and marginal farmers, since they have diversified their

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186 income sources in order to manage during the non cropping season. As described under the economic activity section, everybody considered agriculture their prime employment even though other economic activities contributed to a major part of their income. At the same time, while being proud of part of the oldest occupation and associated with the noble act of growing food for others, most farmers expre ssed that society does not respect their work and monetarily they suffer. An individual with a high attachment to occupation strongly associates occupation with self identity and is considered to be more sensitive to changes in quality, quantity or acces s to the resources on which the occupation is based (Marshall et al, 2010). Conversely, when faced with problems in occupation, a strong attachment to occupation may also drive an individual to take action in the hope of maintaining their current occupati on. This could explain the variations in the level of involvement in community actions and the nature of responses to water transfer. Employability. People who have been in resource dependent work for a long time may lack the occupational skills necessary for find ing other employment opportunities, which increases the ir level of dependency on the resource. In the study area, employability scores are lowest for marginal and leasing farmers and higher for medium and large farmers. The reason could be attribut ed to age, education, and level of transferrable skill sets. In the study area, as elaborated on in Chapter Five, the number of cropping seasons has been reduced from three to one or two toward the end of the last century. Agricultural laborers and farmers specifically marginal farmers, have already begun working in non agricultural sectors, such as unskilled construction work, during the non cropping seasons. Most people above the age of 40 in these two categories continue to work in the agricultural

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187 sector and the younger generations have already moved away from agriculture. Thus, the higher average age and lower education level of farmers in these categories influence their employability and their attitude to ward working elsewhere. Table 6. 6 : Resour ce Dependency Scores Total Location Farm Size Head Tail Leasing Marginal Small Medium Large Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Attachment to Occupation 4.30 4.33 4.28 3.96 4.29 4.26 4.69 4.42 Attachment to Place 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.5 3.8 Employability 3.29 3.34 3.23 3.07 2.99 3.24 3.76 3.83 Business Approach 2.9 2.9 2.8 1.3 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.6 Ability to cope with change 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.7 Networks 3.14 3.18 3.09 2.57 3.08 2.99 3.76 4.08 Attachment to p lace The identity and sense of pride associated with living in a place, and the relation that individuals have with their physical and social community moving to a dif ferent a location, a strong attachment to place may make an individual remain in one place and use the available natural resources and consequently depend more on the resources. However, it may be a powerful and positive characteristic when it motivates an individual to participate in efforts to protect or improve the place and resource conditions. Attachment to place is high across all categories of farmers in the study area. For instance, some retired persons have come back to the village and taken up far ming in their lands. Such a strong attachment to place and occupation could be attributed to the continuation of farming in the region in spite of challenges and low returns. Business a pproach. Farmers with well developed occupational skills are considere d to have the ability to make the best use of available resources and are flexible in their resource use. However, in the study area, this has the lowest scores among all the

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188 variables, indicating that most farmers are less flexible and more dependent on resources. Larger resource dependent businesses in the case of agriculture a larger farm size can buffer themselves from unpredictable problems (Marshall et al, 2007). This is true in the study area and the score is directly related to the farm size. Networks. Well networked farmers, either formal or informal, have better access to information, ideas and support, and are more aware of opportunities. Farmers with weak networks and lesser exposure to opportunities are expected to be more dependent on re sources. The network score for farmers in this study area is low. Most farmers, particularly leasing and marginal farmers, depend on others in the village to make decisions on farming and do not interact with government officials or local elected represent atives. In general, it shows that the bonding social capital is strong and informally networked with other farmers. Medium and large farmers connect with other officers and elected representatives and have better networks. Network scores are highly correl ated with education and farm size as well. Figure 6. 2 : Resource Dependency Scores

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189 Inference. The farmers are highly attached to their occupation and place. While these characteristics may result in distress at the prospect of moving or a change of occupation, it could also act as a powerful factor in initiating actions to find solutions to the problems related to their place and occupation rather than fleeing. Farming experience has weak negative correlation with employability. Low scores of employability, business approach, and networks indicate that the leasing, marginal and small farmers are less aware of the options, strategies and support that are available to them and they have a lower level of access to information and a lack of fin ancial or emotional buffers. As a result, they have lower awareness and ability to adapt to changes related to farming. ssues Individual and community responses to changes are influenced by a wide variety of factors, and per ceptions can shape these responses significantly. Though this aspect has been extensively studied in climate change and adaptation literature, this research differs pe rception s of a water transfer project, its implementation, and the resultant impacts, are determined through surveys and interviews, and they are analyzed below. How their perception corresponds with their responses is analyzed in the next section, since knowledge on this aspect would be valuable in the planning process. Perception of the process. The survey included many items in order to determine the perception of farmers on the transparency of the project planning process and their participation in the process. Everyone came to know about the New Veeranam project through the media, and 5% of the respondents, living in tail end villages, did not know about the project at all when it was implemented. Many survey respondents and the

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190 interviewees expressed that they did not have complete information about the project and there was no public information meeting conducted at the study area before the formal announcement of the project. The project proposal and implementation process as described by an interv iewee (XII) is as follows : In Cuddalore, the district capital, a collector every month. In one of the meetings, three farmers from the study area llingly signed without complete information as the Distric t Collector ha d requested. There was no opportunity for negotiating acceptable positions and balancing the trade offs in the water transfer project. Perception of water right. Predictably, three fourths of the farmers believe that the farmers have the first right to water in the Veeranam tank. One fourth of the farmers consider that both farmers and the city have the right and they need to share it. Four farmers who have lived need should be given priority. Table 6.7: Perception of W ater R ight s Perception of the right to use water Location Total Head Tail Count % Count % Count % Both 24 14.5% 13 7.8% 37 22.3% City 2 1.2% 2 1.2% 4 2.4% Farmers 57 34.3% 68 41.0% 125 75.3% Support and opposition for the project. One fourth of the farmers supported the project. While answering this question, one of the farmers pointed out a pot of water kept

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191 o n the front porch and asserted: We keep a pot of drinking water in front of the house for passersby and anybody can use it. This is our culture. We will not oppose sending drinking Conversely, half of the farmers, more tail enders, oppos ed the project, because in an the farmers in the cropping season. It is an characteristic s and capacity of the water body are like The remaining one fourth of the farmers was neutral about it. Compared to leasing, marginal and large farmers, small and medium farmers opposed the project. This could be because these medium and small farmers are more dependent on the farming act ivity than the leasing and marginal farmers and at the same time, do not have access to groundwater that large farmers have to cope with water scarcity. Many farmers were cautious while answering the question on whether they oppose or support the project. One of the survey respondents mentioned : We were arrested while participating in the protest demanding more water for irrigation, but the charges against us w ere supply. We all learned a lesson after that. I will talk about the water issues after the implementation of the project, but I will not openly oppose or support the project. This attitude of the farmers places a serious limitation on the survey analysis and correlation of perception and responses analysis. As a result, qualitative data from interviews and answers to open ended questions were used to interpret the correlation between perception and response.

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192 Table 6.8 : Perception of Water Transfer P roject Perception of Water transfer project Location Total Head Tail Count % Count % Count % Opp or Strongly Opp. 26 15.7% 58 34.9% 76 50.6% Neutral 24 14.5% 20 12.0% 44 26.5% Fav. or Strongly Favor 33 19.9% 5 3.0% 38 22.9% Perception of Impact and Water Availability While the farmers were cautious about expressing their opinion about the project, they willingly shared their perception about the impacts of the project in detail. Consequently, 70% of the farmers (116) disclosed that the project has negatively impacted them and they have observed a re duction in the quantity of water available for irrigation. A mere six farmers expressed that the project has benefitted them and 44 farmers have not perceived any impact. One of the positive impacts of the project , is storage of water in the tank for a longer period of time The negative impacts reported by the farmers were many and ranged from reduced water availability to the resulting mental stress. These negative impacts, categorized into water related, emotiona l and social impacts, are analyzed below after a brief discussion of positive impacts. Table 6.9: Perception of Impact Perception of Impact Location Total Head Tail Count % Count % Count % Negative Impact 45 27.1% 71 42.8% 116 69.9% No Impact 34 20.5% 10 6.0% 44 26.5% Slight Benefit 4 2.4 % 2 1.2% 6 3.6%

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193 Positive i mpacts. Positive impacts of the projects were reported by the farmers in the head reach villages, specifically those whose fields abut the bunds. Since water is stored for a longer period in the tank to supply water to Chennai, they are able to use the seepage water from the tank for irrigation for a longer period of time. While they have not observed any significant change s related to t he groundwater table until now, farmers in the head reach villages believe that it would help ground water recharge in the long run. A k ey informant (III) also believes that the water transfer project has benefitted the community, specifically related to t he tank maintenance and increased water inflow, due to the fact that i Negative i mpacts. Negative impacts of water transfers reported by farmers are categorized into water related, emotional and social impacts. Water and agriculture related impact. Water related impacts include increased uncertainty of water availability, higher cost of cul tivation, lesser yield, and a decrease in the availability of seasonal agricultural labor. In total contrast to the impacts on irrigated areas, inundation of fields adjacent to the foreshore bunds located on the western side of the tank is reported. Incr eased uncertainty in availability of water is the most emphasized negative impact of the water transfer, as one of the interviewees revealed: Until a few years ago, I considered Veeranam water my wealth, like cash kept in my safe We could use it whenever we needed. Its availability was so certain but not anymore. Particularly this year, in 2012, The farmers emphasized this aspect further by narrating their experience in the previous cropping season: i n the year 2012, as the cropping s eason progressed, the tank was filled with water and the farmers believed that water would be

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194 released for crops. However, due to dry weather predictions, to ensure a maximum supply of water to Chennai, water was not released for irrigation. The elected me mber of the legislative assembly voiced the view of distressed farmers: On one side of the bank in the tank, there is so much water. On the other side, the crops are drying up Who will accept this? How do you designate the water in the tank as either Chennai water or irrigation water? When there is water in the Veeranam tank during the cropping season, just two or three months out of the year, the f irst right is for the farmers. After such experiences, even if the tank is filled to its maximum capaci ty, the farmers are not certain about the availability of water for irrigation and believe that they are more dependent on the rain. An irrigated agricultural area has been transformed into rain fed agriculture. When the field is not irrigated at the right time, farmers reported receiving lesser yield. Due to increased uncertainty about the availability and reduction in the amount of water for irrigation, some farmers rely more on groundwater. This has several consequences. Firstly, the use of groundwate r increases the input cost and when the quality of ground water is not good, a reduction in yield is experienced by farmers. In the long run, this may affect the soil quality as well. Due to the higher costs of installing a bore well and the power supply issue, only a few farmers, predominantly medium and large farmers, have access to groundwater, thus increasing the inequity among farmers. While water shortage is the major issue in most of the villages, in total contrast, the fields located on the wester n side of the tank experienced inundation problems after the water transfer project. The farmers believe that raising the bunds to increase the capacity

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195 of the tank, instead of deepening the tank, is the main cause. Due to water logging, they are unable t o cultivate and lose crop s every season. Loss of control over the tank. Veeranam Tank? It was taken away from us for the city years ago. It is not here anymore. This was the question posed by a farmer in reply to the request to participate in the survey. The study region has a turn system of irrigation, where every village gets water on certain days of the week. Before the implementation of the water transfer project, the farmers requested the release of irrigation water during their turn and obtained water for their fields from the local Public Works De partment (PWD) Officials Now the farmers have observed a change in this arrangement, as noted by an interviewee (I): s for the purpose of the Chennai water supply only. When we request water for irrigation, local PWD officials cannot m ake decision s about releasing water. They have to get permission from the Metro Emotional i mpact. The farmers in the region are emotionally attached to their profession and this was expressed in their answers to many questions. Thus, the water issues, particularly when they are able to see water in the tank and are not able to get it to their field, affects them emotionally. Many of them referred to the crop s as their children and compared their situation to a mother whose hands are ti ed watch ing a full plate of food, while seeing her child suffer and die of hunger. Many farmers expressed that it is not just a matter of economic loss and compensation and cautioned that repetition of such scenarios in the future may result in unexpected strong reactions from them. One of the interviewees

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196 (XII) observed that a sense of injustice prevails among the farmers as Metro water supplies water to many industries around Chennai in dry years as well. In addition, more minor conflicts are observed in sharing the irrigation water by many farmers. There is a need to be more watchful while irrigating the land, as others may divert it to their field. As a result, a few farmers believe only the loudest and strongest can survive. While causing mental stress this does not, however, affect their social life because Social impact. One of the secondary effects of water transfer is an increase in social i nequity. Not a ll farmers have access to the groundwater suitable for irrigation, as the cost of installing a bore well is high. Only wealthy farmers can afford it, and as a result, they are able to cultivate in dry years. The poor farmers have to bear th e loss in yield. Thus, this condition increases social inequity. The other concern expressed by the farmers is a loss of respect from people in other regions. While answering the open ended questions, many farmers expressed this sentiment particularl y in matters of arranged marriages. As one farmer states: water was considered an asset of every household many decades ago, so the farmers in this region were preferred as grooms. With all these water problems, particularly after this project, people in other areas, while searching for a prospective groom for a girl in their family Association between To identify and assess the most influen tial variable, the association between is analyzed and discussed below. Size of the farmland

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197 parts of the world (Abel & Langston, 2001) and also in south ern India (Keiko, 2011). This is found to be true in the study area as well. There is a strong correlation between education and farm size. Area of land owned directly influences income, and thus, access to higher education. Family members of large f armers are able to get a better education, which increases the chances of finding more remunerable non agricultural jobs, further increasing their income. Though the government reservation policy provides backward and scheduled caste farmers an advantage i n seeking an education and government jobs, ownership of land acts as a self reinforcing mechanism further expanding the economic disparity among farmers. Social capital variables trust and reciprocity are not strongly correlated with any other characte ristics of farmers. Years of residence and farming experience have weak positive correlation with social capital components. There is no significant variation in the attitudinal component of social capital among different types of farmers. Few villages ha ve higher social capital scores, which may be attributed to the presence of local community leaders. However, the structural component, such as networks and organizational memberships, is low among leasing, marginal and small farmers.

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198

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199 Resource dependency variables are significantly influenced by farm size. Scores for employability, business size and approach, ability to cope with change, and groups and networks related to farming have a strong positive correlation with area of land owne d, education and income. This again indicates that farmers owning more land can buffer themselves from resource scarcity issues. Perception s of water issues are measured using categorical variables, and the application of the chi square test of dependence was limited by the cells containing a number of obs ervations less than the required count of five. Moreover, farmers were cautious about sharing their perception s of water transfer projects in the survey as discussed earlier, making the qualitative data more appropriate for analysis. Variation in perception is dependent on location, as tail enders face water scarcity problems more than head reach farmers. However, in recent times, increased participation in protests, covert actions of breaking the sluice lock and the need to have security around the banks of the tank reveal there is a sense of injustice prevalent among farmers and the project is perceived tank has been redefined by water transfer. As found in many parts of the world, farm size influences many other characteristics of farmers, such as resource dependency and education, in the study area. However, this does not influence the social capital components of trust and reciprocity, as they are influenced by local village level factors. Though collective action scores increase with farm size, collective actions related to agri cultural activities are scarce.

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200 Individual and Community Responses This section focuses on autonomous responses to the water transfer project at both an individual and community level. Autonomous actions are initiated by private actors without the intervention of public agencies (Smith et al., 1996) and influenced by specific local fa ctors and individual characteristics. Differing forms of responses to changes in water parameters by individuals and the community were identified through the semi structured interviews and surveys. They ranged from no response to changing conditions and bearing loss to responses related to farming and non farm income diversification. Different responses are analyzed in terms of whether they are coping or real forms of adaptation to the perceived or occurring changes. Some of these responses are not unique to disturbances related to water transfer, such as diversifying livelihoods. Therefore, th is analysis has attempted to identify the deliberated responses that have occurred in order to change or reduce the nature of risks related to water transfer. This water transfer project and then discusses the individual and community level responses to change in water parameters. Responses t o Water Transfer Project e open ended questions on the initial reaction to the project fell in six categories as listed in Table 6.11, and 77% of the farmers were either not aware of the project or did not think it would negatively affect them. Of the 14 % of the farmers who were worried about the project, most of them expressed that they will not act against No use for such a protest.

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201 Table 6.11: Initial Reaction to the P roject Initial Reaction % Total Tail Head Did not know about it 5% 8 8 0 Know about it and did nothing Did not think much about it 55% 91 29 62 Thought that we w ould get more water 4% 6 4 2 Did not think it w ould have a negative effect 13% 22 19 3 Worried. Shocked. Knew it w ould have an effect 14% 23 15 8 P articipated in protests 10% 17 5 12 However, 16 (10%) tail end farmers who did not initially participate in protests and fasting in 2004 did participate in 2012 (Refer to Table 6.12). This supports the proposition that willingness to comply with rules depends on the ability to cope or adapt. Community responses to water transfer project. Many organizations in the region reacted strongly to the water transfer project when it was implemented. They believe and they noted: lightning speed and we did not even have time to The responses of various organizations to water transfers were: filing court cases, publishing pamphlets and creating a documentary on the Veeranam tank and the impact of water transfers, bringing the anizing protests and fasting. (Refer to Fig 6.2 and Appendix C for pamphlets, notices and news articles). However, those involved in these responses observe: for our action. We just registered our opposition. However, it prevented the g overnment from extending such projects to other The Veeranam Extension project, proposed to transfer subsurface water from the Kollidam river bed by digging six collector wells to Chennai, was dropped in 2005 (refer to Appendix C)

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202 Tab le 6.12: Participation in 2012 P rotests Participation in Community Actions Location Head Tail Total Count % Count % Count % Not participated 71 42.8% 64 38.6% 135 81.3% Participated 12 7.2% 19 11.4% 31 18.7% Fig ure 6.3: Hunger Strike and Protest by Farmers in 2012 Individual Response s to Changes i n Water Availability The individual autonomous responses are categorized into 3 broad types: agriculture related response s non agriculture response s and no response. They are discussed below, and Table 6.13 shows the responses to water problems that the farmers employ, and the frequencies with which different responses are employed. Twenty five farmers employed both agricultural and non agricultural responses. They are counted under both categories.

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203 Agricultural responses. Agricultural responses include strategies that reduce risk related to water scarcity and make efficient use of available resources. They are categorized as responses related to cr op, water and land, and are described below. Agricultural responses are employed by 85 (51%) farmers. The majority of them are medium size farmers. Table. 6.13: Response Types Total Location Farm Size Head Tail Leasing Marginal Small Medium Large No Response 53 31.9% 38 22.9% 15 9.0% 11 6.6% 14 8.4% 17 10.2% 9 5.4% 2 1.2% Agri R esponse 60 36.1% 28 16.9% 32 19.3% 12 7.2% 15 9.0% 8 4.8% 21 12.7% 4 2.4% Non agri R esponse 28 16.9% 8 4.8% 20 12.0% 4 2.4% 9 5.4% 11 6.6% 4 2.4% 0 0.0% Both 25 15.1% 9 5.4% 16 9.6% 13 7.8% 2 1.2% 4 2.4% 6 3.6% 0 0.0% Water related responses responses related to water conservation measures in the study area are very scarce and include: the leveling of land, constructing farm ponds, using groundwater, and reusing water from drainage canals. Most of the se can be considered short term coping strategies. Few i nitiatives on rainwater harvesting are found, but there is not much awareness among farmers about increasing water use efficiency. To maintain uniform depth of water in the field and conserve water, some farmers have levelled the land. O ther farmers, mainly marginal and large farmers, mentioned their initiatives for constructing farm ponds. However, this is not considered feasible by marginal and small farmers, as the area they own is very sma ll. As a result, farmers in this Another response related to water is investing in bore wells to pump groundwater. Many respondents consider this option their future response. However, both financial

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204 conditions and aquifer conditions greatly limit this option. In many villages, groundwater quality is not suitable for irrigation. Many farmers observed that when they use ground water a lot, they get a lesser yield, not only in the current season but in the following season as well. So mostly, conjunctive use of groundwater with canal water is practiced to reduce the negative effect of using unsuitable groundwater. In the long term this response may result in the decline of soil qu ality and the groundwater table. In addition, this option increases inequity among farmers. Another response practiced by many marginal and small farmers is reusing water from irrigation drainage canals. While , it is a coping m echanism, it increases the risk for a farmer, since water in irrigation drainage canals may carry pathogens from head end fields and spread crop diseases. One of the criticisms of farmers is that they use a larger share of fresh water than what is required for crops. With respect to irrigating a paddy field, alternate dry and wet conditions favor good yield and uniform wet conditions increase only vegetative growth. f water conservatio n is limited, also pointed out that with the green revolution and introduction of HYV, water intensive technology was propagated and the use of ground water was encouraged among farmers. Consequently they believe that a government initiative is required to create awareness among farmers, as an interview ee (II) stressed: government agencies taught them to use more water. Now they have to teach them about Few farmers seemed to have learn ed this, not from the scie ntists or from government officials but from nature. In the year 2012, considered a dry and drought year,

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205 Veeranam water was not released for irrigation and resulted in protest and fasting. However, finally, farmers in the study area obtained a very good y ield, as they received rains in the month of December at 10 12 day intervals. As one of the interviewees described: just enough rain to wet the fields. Again when the fields dried, we received little rain. Finally, we got such a good yield. I am going to try th ese alternate dry and wet condition s in the However, it was not a conscious response by the farmers and most farmers have not learn ed the lessons taught by nature. Crop related responses One of the farming responses practiced by almost everyone in the year 2012 was a direct sowing method as suggested by the State Agriculture Department. The d irect sowing of seeds in the prepared field before the onset of the monsoon eliminates the need for irrigated water for crop establishment and makes use of the pre monsoon rainfall. This method, traditionally practiced in rain fed areas, is practiced in the study region due to water scarcity. While it has additional advantages, such as lower labor requirements, as noted by the farmers, it makes farming more dependent on rains. Crop diversification is not considered an option by the farmers due to the prevailing soil and climatic conditions, and a fe w farmers mentioned that their attempt s to grow sugarcane and cotton resulted in heavy loss. While continuing to cultivate paddy, most of them have shifted to short duration and high yielding varieties. While these varieties give high yield under favorabl e conditions, farmers consider them to be sensitive to variations in growth conditions leading to total loss of yield under unfavorable conditions. Though none of the survey respondents or interviewees tried organic farming, many of them said that initiat ives in organic farming in the nearby regions faced difficulties in the marketing

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206 of the produce. Most leasing, marginal and small farmers said that they consult each other in matters of crop variety or follow the medium or large farmers. This shows the e xistences of peer bonding social capital among farmers. Responses related to land. Off farm income began to play an important role in the economic livelihoods of farmers in the study area few decades ago, due to the reduced number of cropping seasons and a lack of good profit from farming. However, as explained If I leave the land fallow, I cannot keep my head high and walk in the village with dignity; buying rice a nd cooking it This attitude, combined with a recent increase in uncertainty about the irrigation water supply, has prompted many farmers to reduce the area of cultivation and give the remaining land for leasing. The agricultural labor ers readily lease the land from landowning farmers. This process has several consequences, and to investigate, the issues of a new category of farmers, namely leasing farmers, has been included in this study. Fig ure 6.4: Agricultural Land converted to Residential Land Use in Tail E nd Villages Selling land. Predominantly, old farmers sell the land because there is no one to carry out farming in the family or negotiate the leasing of land. However, in the tail end villages, proximity to the city has placed higher value on agricultural land. Water scarcity coupled with higher value for land has led to the selling of agricultural land in a few tail

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207 end villages, and subsequently land use conversion. All the agricultural lands along the ma in roads linking the villages and the city face similar pressure. In general, selling the land is considered a last resort in the study area, as explained by a farmer in the tail end Any time we come to know that somebody has sold the land, it is extremely saddening. Particularly Therefore, water scarcity related stress acts as an additional factor and cannot be considered the sole reason for instigating selling the agric ultural land. As the description of response related to agriculture shows, there are not many actions are short term coping mechanisms or maladaptation. Non a gricultural responses. Due to the Cauvery River dispute with the neighboring state Karnataka and the resulting reduction of inflow, the number of cropping seasons changed from three to one or two seasons in the late 1970s. Around the same time, a land ceil ing act was enacted and an attempt was made by the state government to distribute ceiling surplus land to agricultural laborers. Dependence on agriculture gradually declined in the region, particularly in the case of agricultural laborers and marginal far mers, and non farm work has become part of their livelihood. This process is explained in detail in chapter 5. Currently, according to the famers, with a single crop in a year, to decently support a family of four to six, a farmer needs to cultivate 10 a cres of land. Otherwise, a secondary source of income is required or farmers have to compromise on their quality of life The survey specifically questioned them about the ir responses to changes related to water transfer since 2004. Non agriculture respon ses mainly consist of non farm income

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208 diversification. Some farmers also reported their investment s for the future, such as members can get a more remunerative emp loyment in the non farm sector. As one of the interviewees (I) stated: ince agriculture is not a profitable occupation now, people are leaving agriculture. Nobody will continue with One fourth of the respondents (53 32%) have t aken some measure to diversify their income and have taken up non farm employment. The choice of non education level. These measures mainly include taking up unskilled and semi skilled construction work. O thers have tak en up job s as drivers of private vehicles. One of the respondents has set up a tea shop in the village. Such non agriculture responses are given by all categories of farmers except large farmers. No response. More than one third of the respondents (53 32 %) have not changed their actions related to farming and livelihood after the water transfer. As table 6.13 shows, many farmers in head end villages have not changed their activities, probably because they still get Veeranam water for irrigation. F armers in the tail end villages in this category who have experienced reduction in water availability mentioned that they have adjusted their living conditions. They believe that they do not have any other option, so they have learned to live with the avai lable resources and lowered income. Some trust that nature will support them by bringing more rain in the future. Community R esponses to Changes in Water Availability The collective actions by the community in the study area are few, and they can be clas sified into two categories : actions demanding more water for irrigation, and actions to improve the use of available water. The analysis shows that community action emphasizes

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209 demanding more water and efforts to improve water efficiency have been taken in just one or two instances. These actions are described below. Actions demanding more water for irrigation are being carried out by different organizations at various levels operating independently in the study area. The news items in Appendix C provide an account of protests, obstruction of roads and fasting organized in the area demanding more water for irrigation. Such activities are organized mostly during the cropping season and when the water from the tank does not reach the fields. However, as the organizer of these events, interviewee (V) observes that the participation of farmers is low in general: However, an interviewee (II) reasons: blame the farmers, as they have day to day things to take care of. Not everybody can However, in the year 2012, as indicated b y the survey results and supported by the interviews, more farmers participated in such protests, including the elected representative of the state legislative assembly. This also supports the third proposition that willingness to comply with changes in ru les related to resource access is determined by their ability to cope. On the contrary, a group of farmers were engaged in covert actions, such as breaking the sluice lock and releasing the water for irrigation at night. In the year 2012, police patrolling was introduced on the banks of the tank to prevent the farmers from stealthily releasing the water. One of the farmer s It has become a protected water body. There are guards with gun s around the water body. How can people

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210 At the community level, there are some actions that can be taken to increase water use efficiency. Such actions are found mainly in the tail end villages, as the tail end villages face the consequences of reduced water flow from the tank. This situation has not only resulted in the individual responses in tail end villages as discussed earlier, but also an emergence of collective actions as well. In July 2013, in one of the tail end villages, the villagers pooled money and labor to clear the main canal that brings water to their fields. This was carried out under the initiative and leadership of the local elected president of the village panchayat (Council). All the respondents complied and pooled their resources, since in the previous season in 2012 t hey did not get the water required for growing black gram after paddy cultivation and they had to bear the loss. In another tail end village, the villagers have deepened the temple tank and installed a rain water harvesting system (Fig. 6.4). According t o the villagers, the ground water table has improved considerably in the following years. These responses are indications of a crisis creating a favorable environment for collective action in the study area. Fig ure 6.5: Collective Action: Rainwater Harvesting and Canal M aintenance

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211 In another instance, a female farmer in the tail end village, unable to bear the condition of the main canal and resultant lack of flow of water in the tail end fields, cleared the canal of aquatic weeds and solid waste wit h her own resources. It was widely publicized by the local media and subsequently, when the news reached public officials the following year they allotted funds to maintain the canal and put her in charge of the whole operation. This shows that it is pos sible for micro level initiatives to be supported by meso level institutions and the government machinery. All the above illustrates that, at the community level, actions are mostly taken when the crisis is eminent, and still more effort is on mitigating t he causes of change, i.e. stopping the water transfer. The increase in public protest and covert actions supports the third proposition that ability to cope with changes determines the willingness to comply with changes in rules related to resource access There are no command area wide actions for increasing water efficiency or conservation or rainwater harvesting. Actions related to water have begun at the local level and are more due to the initiative of local leaders. These responses can be considere d single loop learning (Argyris, 1999), as they only aim to improv e certain outcomes, such as higher yields. However, not all the initiatives are supported by local farmers. An i nterviewee (IV) mentioned that his initiative to start collective or cooperati ve farming was received with suspicion by marginal and small farmer s and as a result, it did not materialize.

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212

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213 Future Plans In order to explore the responses of farmers to future scenarios, f armers were questioned about their future plans for farming, their willingness and ability to continue farming under different water availability conditions, and the problems they foresee for continuing farming activities. In addition, the opinion of their child ren taking up farming in the future was also asked. Though most farmers observed that they do not presently receive adequate water for irrigation, they plan to continue to farm in the future even if lesser water is available for irrigation. As shown in Tab le 6. 14 even if 75% less water is available, more than half of the respondents (54.2%), mostly leasing farmers, asserted that they would continue to farm. They strongly believe the rain god will help the ir agri culture activities, as always. Farmers were asked their opinion about the continuation of farming by their children. Nearly half the farmers (46.4%) do not want their children to take up farming and 22% want their children to continue farming only as a secondary economic activity in add ition to another full time primary job in a non farming sector. In response to anticipated problems in the future, in addition to water issues, they listed agriculture labor problems and access to education as potential future obstacles. Many farmers att ributed the unavailability of agricultural laborers to MGNREGS implementation. The primary goal of MGNREGS is to enhance livelihood security in rural India by providing guaranteed employment (Government of India, 2005). According to the medium and large fa rmers it has changed the laborers attitude. They prefer to get minimum wage without much work for 100 days a year rather than work on a farm and earn more money. But, according to the marginal farmers such schemes help them earn

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214 minimum wage when farm w ork is not available. In addition to MGNREGS, Tamil Nadu government provides 20 kg of rice through the Public Distribution System. However, corruption is an issue that prevents them from receiving the full benefit from such schemes. An i nterviewee (XII) e xpressed concern that most government schemes have no long term vision and they help farmer s continue to eat one or two meal s a day and stay in poverty. Instead, programs that bring development to individuals, villages and the state should be promoted. W hen questioned about their preparedness for future water scarce situation s half of the farmers (51%) said they do not have any plans and they would be continuing with what they are doing presently. One quarter of them (25%) replied they would be focusing on improving non farm job opportunities. The remaining one quarter indicated that they would improve their farming methods or get resources to access groundwater. This clearly shows that most farmers do not have any concrete future plans for improving agri cultural practices. Association between and Responses Chi square analysis was carried out. Due to the sample size and respondent characteristics, the Chi square cells contained less than the required number of five observations in many instances. Therefore, whe n possible, to obtain increased cell values, large farmers were excluded, as only six farmers in this category participated in the survey or the number of categories in the variables were reduced. Another method employed was to count the farmers who undertook both responses in agricultural and non agricultural response

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215 categories individually. As a result of such modifications, the N value var ied between 191 and 185 in this analysis. Each response type (i.e. agriculture, non agriculture and no response) and its aggregate analysis to test the relationshi p between all three response types and their relationship s strongly associated with response types in both an aggregated and disaggregated analysis. The results of the Chi squar e analysis are presented below. Disaggregated r esponse a nalysis. characteristics and agricultural and non agricultural responses were tested independently. Agricultural response Chi square results show a statistically significant difference in carrying out agricultural responses between different types of farmers (Refer to Table 6.14). In this analysis, agricultural responses include only those activities that are aimed at improv ing agricultural practices with the available resources, and they do not include leasing land for cultivation. Large and marginal farmers are more likely to employ agricultural related responses, and leasing and marginal farmers are least likely to take up such measures. Education level strongly correlated with area of land owned by a farmer is also associated with agricultural responses. Table 6.1 6 : Results of Chi square Test for Agriculture R esponse by Farm Size Agriculture related response Farm Size Total Leasing Marginal Small Medium No Response 32 (80%) 27 (68%) 28 (70%) 14 (35%) 101 Response 8 (20%) 13 (33%) 12 (30%) 26(65%) 59 Note. 2 = 19.627, df = 3. Numbers in parenthese s indicate column percentages. *p = .000

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216 Non a gricultural response. There is a significant association between non agricultural response and age (Table 6.15.). Farmers in a higher age category are least likely to take up non farm income diversification measures and mo re likely to continue farming. Table 6.1 7 : Re sults of Chi square Test for Non Agricultural R esponse by Age Non Agriculture related response Age Total <= 39.0 40.0 49.0 50.0 59.0 60.0 + No Response 23 (58%) 29 (56%) 31 (72%) 24 (96%) 107 Response 17 (43%) 23 (44%) 12 (28%) 1 (4%) 53 Note. 2 = 14.584, df = 3. Numbers in parentheses indicate column percentages. *p = .002 Aggregated r esponse analysis An analysis of t he association between different In this analysis, leasing of land was included as an agricultural response, as it helps in the continuation of farming in the st udy area. The results indicate that the type of response is 2 ( 6, N =191) =11.27, p = .08; and Age, 2 ( 6, N=191)= 19.62, p =.003. In addition, perception of water transfer is found t o be associated with responses 2 (4, N=191) =13.27, p = .01. However, of the association problematic. The associations between responses, farm size and age are apparent in the field. As elaborated on in Chapter Five, agrarian society is transitioning toward non agricultural work. According to local farmers, at least 10 acres are required to support a fami ly of four to six members with agricultural income alone, and others holding lesser areas of land need to diversify the ir income sources. Therefore, the size of the land holding and education level determines income diversification strategies among farmers as follows: agricultural

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217 laborers, marginal farmers and small farmers with less education take up fulltime semiskilled and unskilled jobs, mainly in the construction field; older farmers in this category continue with agricultural related work due to limi ted employability; older agricultural laborers additionally have begun to lease land and mainly practice subsistence farming; younger people in the above two categories prefer to take up non farm work rather than farming. Fig ure 6. 6 : Re s ponse T ypes v s Farmers Inference. Though the observation in this study size of land holding, age and education are associated with response types is unsurprising, it establishes that different types of farmers are inclined to take up different response measures. This also indicates that within the agricultural sector, it puts the already vulnerable agricultural laborers, and marginal and small farme rs, in a disadvantageous position.

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218 This analysis has identified asset based elements of capacity to cope and adapt. This provides knowledge of what an individual has that supports the coping or adaptation process to variations in water availability in the study area. Accordingly, size of the land holding, education and age are key determinants of responses. Other asset based elements that determine response capacity are human, physical, natural, social and financial capital. As established previously in t very high in these societies now. Of the two natural capitals, water and land, water and its deficit is the focus of analysis. Land (farm size) is found to be the key determinant of individual r esponses, as the human capital, such as education, knowledge and skills, and physical capital, are highly dependent on the size of the land holding as well. This analysis provides an indication of what the individuals have that enables them to cope or ada pt. However, another important aspect is recognizing what an individual or a society does that enables it to cope or adapt. Determining such processes that influence the response capacity and the feedback mechanism at different scales are essential for get ting a complete understanding of the system responses. Discussion The results of the survey and interviews demonstrate that people are making small adjustments to their farming practices and livelihoods in response to their understanding and perception of changes connected to water transfer. However, some of these respon ses, such as diversifying livelihoods, are not unique to changes associated with water transfer. that are driven by the water transfer project. The following discus sion includes the

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219 characteristics of the response space and its implication on other scales as well as on the future of the system. Characteristics of Response Space The response space refers to the set of options available. It includes coping strategie s, short term actions to deal with day to day shocks, adaptation responses and collective actions to manage change ( Smit & Pilifosova, 2001 ). It is dynamic over time and is shaped by a variety of factors both endogenous and exogenous to the system, such as external socio political factors, and contextual factors in terms of environmental and social resources, in addition to individual perceptions. Within the space made available for response by political decision making and the market, there will always be multiple pathways (Tompkins & Adger, 2005). The available options are assessed differently by different actors in a system and individual actors implement responses at the individual and household level. However, not all responses result in a positive impa ct on livelihood. There may be spatial spillovers and negative externalities th at may affect the future response spaces. This section summarizes the dynamics of individual and collective responses practiced in the study area. Responses to water transfer in the study area revolve around individual rather than collective action. The current policy environment and governance structure that delimit the response space provide very few options for formal collective actions and social learning. The conditions nece ssary to facilitate double or triple loop social learning opportunities, such as transparency, active engagement within the civil society, and a high degree of citizen participation, are lacking. For example, the interstate conflict over the Cauvery river water sharing has prevented the establishment of formal organizations such as the Water

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220 Users Association (WUA) in the study area. In the few cases of collective action, local leaders and informal networks remained central to initiation and facilitation of actions at the local level. The individual options to respond are available both within the agricultural sector and outside the agricultural sector. In the study area, coping strategies related to agriculture with a focus on short term immediate results are practiced more than long term adaptation strategies. Within the agricultural sector in the system, responses are related to water, crops or land. The water related coping strategies practiced do not aim to increas e water efficiency or augment more wa ter by harvesting rain water for example Most of the strategies focus on short term benefits or yields and fail to address issues from a long term perspective. Few strategies can be considered as unsustainable practices or maladaptation: p umping water fr om drainage canals can potentially spread disease from other fields; similarly, the conjunctive use of unsuitable groundwater with surface water in some villages, which may provide minimum immediate yield, may potentially affect the future productivity of the land. In addition, groundwater access, limited by financial ability to afford the necessary infrastructure, increases inequity among farmers. Crop related practices, such as direct sowing, help the farmers begin farming activities even in a dry year However, this increases uncertainty and vulnerability to variations in rainfall. Other crop related strategies, such as cultivating short term high yielding varieties (HYV), provide maximum yield under favorable conditions. However, being very sensitive to variations in water and climatic conditions, they pose a higher risk of loss of the total yield under unfavorable conditions.

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221 Selling and leasing the land are predominant land related responses. Tail end villagers face multiple pressures to sell land. On one hand, water scarcity is pushing the land away from agricultural use, and on the other hand, proximity to the city places higher values on agricultural lands. This pressure to alter the land use is on lands that are close to the main roads linking t he villages to the city, and already, rapid land use change can be observed in tail end villages. Farmers who do not want to take the risk, instead of cultivating or selling the land, lease the land to other farmers or agricultural laborers. In this contra ct, all the risk falls on the leasing farmers and the land owning farmers are assured a certain sum of money. Leasing farmers willing to take bigger risk s play a key role in the continuation of agriculture in the region. In the rapidly urbanizing regions, any fallow land attracts real estate development leading to land use change. This has been put on hold by the leasing farmers. Non agricultural income di versification measures began a few decades ago in the region, when the number of cropping seasons reduced from three to one or two. Since the availability of water has been uncertain even for a single cropping season in recent years, non farm income dive rsification activities are consistently incorporated into rural livelihoods. However, options are limited by education level which in turn, as shown in the survey results, is predominantly determined by the income or area of farm land owned. Most leasing and marginal farmers take up unskilled labor work. An individual or household can practice more than one coping strategy in response to a disturbance. Many farmers employ a combination of responses, both agricultural and non agricultural, to the impacts of water transfer. Most responses are coping measures considered reactive over a short time frame. As a result, there is a tradeoff between the

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222 immediate outcome and long term productivity affecting the long term resilience of the system. Moreover, there i s unequal distribution of coping capacity among different types of farmers. Disparity in capacity influences the choice of response measures. This is discussed in detail in the next section. Farmer Types and Actions Farmers in the study region are heterog eneous and have varied perceptions and capacity to respond to change. As discussed above, in response to water issues, they practice different responses, and locate themselves in different places in the response space. Depending on the continuity or chang e of responses by farmers, different future system actions, their motivation and potential future actions by farmer types are reviewed below. Are the farmers locked int o particular pathways? Are they likely to continue farming? If yes, what will enable them to continue? If not, what are the options available to them? What are the consequences of these two possibilities for food production and for the system? The answers will provide not only insight into the current state of the system but into the inter and cross scale dynamics and plausible future states of the system as well. Leasing farmers. Agricultural laborers, by leasing land from small and marginal farmers, h elp in the adaptive maintenance of the function of the system. These landless laborers lease land mainly to produce the required rice and pulses for the family. Though involved in agricultural labor work for many years, they have less experience in farming Typically the entire family works on the field and the farmers mutually help each other by sharing labor work. They focus on short term immediate gains and mostly do not have

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223 incentives to consider or invest in long term strategies in farming or participate in collective actions. Leasing farmers have less education and are involved in low paying, farming related activities due to a lack of better opportunities. They are inc reasingly less dependent on agriculture as a result of reduction in cropping seasons, and their primary economic activity is unskilled work in construction activities. According to the survey results, they are mostly above the age of 40, the reason being y ounger laborers prefer to work fulltime in non agriculture sectors. At the individual level, they have a high coping capacity and by taking up non farming work, they are able to support their livelihood. However, these actions have not improved their livin g conditions and barely help them meet their basic needs. By leasing the land, these farmers allow the farming to be continued in this transitioning time and thus, the system continues to function Consequently, the land is prevented from going fallow and subsequent land use change is avoided. They help in adaptive maintenance of the function of the system. While the older farmers might continue to do this in the future, the younger laborers and farmers will leave farming if better opportunities are ava ilable. This category of farmers emerged in the system very recently and they may disappear in the future. Marginal farmers. The s are mostly comparable to leasing farmers, the main difference being ownership of small areas of agricultural land. Similar to leasing farmers, their education level is low; they are less dependent on agricultural activities; they are involved in subsistence farming; their entire family works in the field; they do not invest in specifi c agricultural long term strategies;

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224 and they continue with what they had been doing in the past or follow other farmers in the villages. While they search for better non farm income, since they own the land, they may continue to farm and persist in the system in the immediate future if not for a longer period of time Small farmers. a few generations and possess considerable experience in farming. Though they depend on another economic activity, f arming activities contribute to a substantial portion of their income. In a few cases, the entire family works in the field and in others they hire laborers. Due to financial limitations, they have difficulty accessing groundwater, and thus, they are affected by the uncertainty of water availability. They resort to short term coping strategies, but they are interested in finding long term s trategies. Compared to the previous two categories, small farmers are more educated. Their ability to cope with change and their business approach is not advanced and their network capabilities are limited. They may participate in collective actions but may not have time to initiate activities and innovative solutions. While they have expressed interest in they would prefer their family members not continue with f arming in the future or to practice it only as a secondary economic activity. Thus, the likelihood of this category of farmers continuing farming is varied. There are a large number of farmers in this category in the study area. Therefore their actions wi ll influence the future of the system considerably. Medium farmers. Agriculture is the main source of income for medium farmers. Most families of medium farmers have owned and farmed the land for many decades, and

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225 thus, they have more agricultural experien ce. A few farmers in this category were once large farmers and sold a large share of their land to take up a full time job in the non agricultural sector and they have returned to the village after retirement. Not all marginal farmers have the capacity to obtain groundwater, and thus irrigation water is an issue. Another equally important problem for them is the unavailability of labor. Medium farmers describe themselves as the fulcrum or pivot of the scissors: We are caught in the middle and do not have any major advantages from any point of view. When the handle goes up, the connected blade goes down and vice versa in the scissors. Similarly the large farmers and small farmers are at an advantage either with the option of access to groundwater or non f arm jobs w hereas we cannot leave the land to take up other jobs and have nothing to fall back on if the crops fail. We have to do our best in this. Since farming income is important for them, they are interested in developing a show interest in collective actions. However, currently, due to multiple challenges, many o f them do not foresee a bright future in farming. They have the potential to bring sustainable practices or positive transformation to the system. Large farmers. Though those who own more than 10 acres are considered large farmers, generally large farmers in the study area managed land ranging from 20 to 100 acres owned by close relatives. Large farmers are not present in all villages. In general they have good education, better networks with agricultural officers and access to information. They are aware of schemes implemented by the government and other sustainable practices such as zero budget farming. Some large farmers have laborers

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226 working for them throughout the year and have necessary infrastructure facilities. Mostly, they own multi ple bore wells and have access to groundwater where available. All the large farmers are aware of sustainable agricultural practices and have taken initiatives to implement them in their farming practice s They have also taken initiatives in improving irr igation water supply and farming in their villages, such as clearing and maintenance of irrigation canals, construction of internal roads to access the fields, and initiatives in rainwater harvesting through temple tanks. In many villages, particularly in the tail end villages, other farmers benefit from large farmers in matters of pest control and networking with government officials. Though there are very few large farmers, they manage large areas of land and have the potential and means to introduce inno vative methods. Large farmers will continue to farm in the future, and hence, they can play a key leadership role in improving agriculture in the region by adapting context specific technologies and disseminating them among other farmers. The analysis of d and adapt to increasing uncertainty are unequally distributed among farmers in the study area. Marginal and small farmers do not have much incentive and therefore are less likely to inves t in agricultural activities. Within the agricultural sector medium and large farmers are more resilient to changes associated with water transfer, prompting the others to depend more on non farm activities. However, successful coping by one group affects the other group through a cascading effect. Such interactions are discussed next.

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227 Intra a nd Cross Scale Dynamics In the processes of disturbance, change and response, some individuals or sectors are better able to cope or adapt. As discussed above, the study area is characterized by heterogeneous farmers and unequal distribution of capacities to respond. As a result, different categories of farmers occupy different locations in the response space. Unequal coping capacities in the study area and the res ulting non agricultural income diversification by farmers, while helping to solve short term problems for one type of farmers, simultaneously ha ve long term, intra and cross scale consequences. These consequences relate to the continuation of agriculture i n the study area in the future and the transfer of rural poverty to urban areas. Continuation of agriculture. Uncertainty and shortage in the water supply for irrigation, a reduction in the number of cropping seasons, and unequal access to groundwater, while allowing medium and larger farmers to cope, have forced agricultural laborers and marginal and small farmers to increasingly diversify their incomes through non agricultural work, making them less dependent on agriculture. Since they previously labor shortage during the cropping seasons in the study area. Bringing agricultural laborers from other r egions increases the cost of cultivation for medium farmers, makes them economically uncompetitive, and prompts them to give up the land for leasing and take up lucrative non farm jobs based on their education. Thus, different responses by different types of farmers and feedback mechanisms ultimately put the agriculture sector in a disadvantageous position.

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228 Transfer of rural poverty to urban areas. Agricultural laborers, marginal and small farmers or their family members with less education take up unskill ed labor work in growing urban areas to diversify their income. These economic transitions are justified because the contribution of the primary sector tends to decrease in a mature or developing economy However, in this scenario, the transfer of water ha s accelerated the migration of marginal and small farmers with minimum education to urban areas in search of unskilled work to diversify their income. With low wages and pressure, they live in substandard living conditions and add substantial pressure on u rban water infrastructure. Thus, there is increased transfer of rural poverty to urban poverty. Current and Future Social System Characteristics As agriculture continues to be practiced by the farmers in the study area, the prevailing function of the syste for adaptive maintenance or resilience. However, inadvertent transformation of the system is a possibility in the future, as theoretically identified components for negative transformation of system s are predominant in the social system. Currently, farming continues to be practiced in the study area through changes in land ownership and leasing arrangements. The two important factors that have enabled such adaptive maintenance or resilience of the sy stem are: f occupation and place and the lack of other work opportunit ies for leasing farmers. However the current state and processes can be considered undesirable because they he se short term coping measures undermine current capacities and future development options. Since farming has become a secondary economic activity, there are no long term plans related to agriculture among

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229 most farmers. Though there is some interest in improving established practices, there are no initiatives to resolve the underlying challenges related to water. There is no evidence of higher level social learning processes. Thus, the current actions allow the existing undesirable functions and practic es to persist and reinforce vulnerability and inequality among actors. There are no clear concrete plans of action related to water management or agricultural practices either by individual s at the micro level or by institutions at the meso level. The farm ers plan to continue current practices even if lesser water is available in the future and they do not want their children to continue farming as a primary economic activity. This indicates that if the existing conditions and attitudes prevail, farming wi ll play a lesser role in the livelihood of people in the study area. This approach may lead to lower system efficiency and agricultural productivity and ultimately land use change. All these factors indicate that there are chances of inadvertent negative transformation of the system. This possibility is reinforced by the presence of theoretically identified components for negative transformation of systems: unhappiness with the status quo, a lack of long term vision and cooperation, lower social capital, a lack of open networks and bridging capital; inadequate leadership; and a lack of proactive approach es or personal pro activity. However, there are some attributes of the social system that provide opportunities for positive transformation such as attach ment to place and occupation, emergence of local leadership and collective action, and latent capitals such as peer bonding social capital and precipitation.

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230 Testing Theoretical Propositions This chapter, seeking to understand the resource users in a n SES and their responses to the consequences of current water transfer practices in India, set out to test four propositions related to SES changes and actors. In an attempt to build theory on resilience to manage SES s a set of propositions w as presented by Walker et.al. (2006) based on the existing understanding of change in social ecological systems. These propositions, considered tentative patterns based on limited experience, were presented with an expectation that they would be augmented, modified, o r rejected by future research by comparing and contrasting the propositional statements across a wide range of case studies. Based on this, four propositions were identified for analysis in this study and they guided the analysis of embedded units in this case study. The preceding sections in this chapter, while presenting, analyzing and discussing the data, identified supportive or contrary evidence for the propositions as well. The d iscussion below provides a summary of how and why a particular propositi on was demonstrated or not demonstrated in this study. This allows for the examination of concepts of how change occurs in complex social ecological systems, as well as the analytic generalization of findings related to the resource users and social system s. Proposition 1: Individual capacity to respond to changes is influenc ed by the attributes and per ceptions of the farmers. A small set of three to five key variables in a system determines critical changes in the system ( Yorque et al., 2002 ). Therefore, it is important to identify those key variables in a system to understand the essential dynamics of that system. In this study, with respect to the farmers and social systems, the area of land owned, education, and age have been

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231 identified as critical variables. Aggregate and disaggregate correlation analyses show that farm size plays a key role in practicing agriculture related responses (Table 6.14) w hereas age acts as a key determinant in the case of non agricultural responses (Table 6.15) It has been established that in resource dependent occupations, the size of the business determines the ability to cope and adapt ( Abel & Langston, 2001 ). The results of this study support the above findings and establish that there are different types of actors performing different actions in this study area. This has implications on response diversity and the system capacity to adapt, which is analyzed through the other propositions. Proposition 2: The b ehavior and emotional response s of resource users to change are significantly influenced by the perception of an event, project or policy. Negative perception of an event project or policy is considered to affect the capacity of individuals to cope and adapt to changes (Marshall et al, 2010). However, i n expressing their true opinion s about the water transfer project. Hence the analysis relied more on field observation and qualitative data. Many survey respondents wh o were neutral to or supported the project expressed their dejected views that the city always gets priority and nothing can be done. Within this category of farmers, one group did not change their farming practices and is bearing the loss, even though the y have observed a change. These farmers mostly believe that to continue in farming, strength is required more than cooperation because in farming only the loudest and strongest can survive now They supported their inaction in farming practices and viewed participating in farmer meetings as a waste of time w hereas another

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232 group of farmers, who believe that farmers have the first right to water and that they have lost control over the water body, engage in covert activities to get water from the tank Such a situation the disconnect between communities and government departments, the lack of transparency in the process and the resultant sense of injustice within a group of farmers increases the risk of conflict in the future. Thus, while the statisti cal analysis was limited, the qualitative data and observation during field study provided partial credence to this proposition. Proposition 3: that govern their access to water res ources are determined by their ability to cope with and adapt to changes. When changes in a system impose high levels of stress upon individuals and communities, it may not only affect their ability to cope, adapt or tolerate but may also result in non compliance (Measham et al. 2011). The analysis shows that when the project was implemented, only 10% of the respondents were engaged in activities to show their opposition, and most other farmers did nothing. However, in 2012, an additional 10% of the farmers in the tail end villages participated in protests demanding more water for irrigation. The elected member of the Legislative Assembly for the Chidambaram constituency organized fasting to demand the government release water for irrigatio n. Moreover, the government had to deploy armed policemen around the tank in 2012 to prevent the farmers from breaking the sluice locks and releasing water for irrigation. chan ges determines their willingness to comply with changes in rules accompanied by the water transfer project. If this continues in the future, there may be extreme violent actions

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233 from the farmers. So, if water transfer strategies are to be successful inves ting in the capacity of water users to adapt to changes related to water transfer are crucial and should take into account the different levels of response capacity among the farmers. Proposition 4: The diversity of responses to changing circumstance s within components of a system have implications for the functioning and resilience of that system. While the causes of variations in responses are addressed in the literature, studies on the consequences of variations have not received much attention by scholars (Leslie et al., 2013). Proposition One, discussed earlier, mainly attempted to identify the key attributes that are responsible for variations in responses. While the attributes of the system components influence the type of responses, diversity in responses, in turn, may influence system functioning and characteristics such as adaptive capacity. It may enhance resilience or in certain situations may reduce it. In this study, the diverse responses to changes were broadly categorized into agricul ture related and non agricultural responses. While the large and marginal farmers were able to practice agricultural responses and be resilient to changes, the marginal and small farmers have taken up jobs in the non agricultural sector to cope with change s. While this diversity in response s strengthens resilience at the individual level, this has resulted in an agricultural labor shortage affecting large farmers. Consequently it affects agricultural activities and system function s The discussions in the preceding sections support the proposition that diversity of responses influences the inter and cross scale dynamics as well as current and future resilience. The evidence provides full or partial credence to all the propositions in this study. These propositions offer a better understanding of changes in SESs and the response of

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234 actors to changes. Moreover, they help identify where resources and efforts can be concentrated to minimize the negative impacts and balance the trade o ffs in the water transfer planning process. Conclusion Water transfers generally yield consequences similar to drought, but, unlike natural hazard drought, water transfers affect the SES frequently, slowly and sometimes imperceptibly. With different studie s on water transfer generating different and sometimes contradictory results, what the impact of water transfer will consist of in different places is uncertain. This analysis was carried out to discern the impacts of water transfer by analyzing what water transfer means to people using the water resources in the supplying region and how they deal with it. The results show that the study area is characterized by heterogeneous farmers with different levels of response capacity. The diverse responses by farme rs help to maintain the adaptive maintenance of agricultural activities and show the resiliency of individuals in the face of change. However, these responses, mostly short term coping strategies, do not improve their resiliency for future shocks and rein force the existing undesirable system attributes that may lead to unplanned transformation in the near future. With this understanding of the farmers responses, the next section analy z es changes in the system characteristics and explores plausible future scenarios. The responses of farmers analyzed in this chapter provide the basis for the baseline scenario construction and different plausible future scenarios are projected with differ ent interventions and re sponses

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235 CHAPTER VII SYSTEM CHANGES AND FUTURE SCENARIOS Introduction This research carries out a systemic analysis of the changes that occur in one Social Ecological System ( SES) given an external disturbance in the form of water transfer. It aims to meet three objectives. Recall that the first objective i.e. analysis of the r esponses of the farmers as the a ctors in the SES, has been addressed i n Chapter Six T his chapter foc uses on the second and third objectives. The second objective of this study is to e xamine the changes in social and ecological system characteristics following rural to urban water transfer s specifically changes in socio economic characteristics, land use, agricultural productivity and water availability. Understanding the impact of such water transfers is a necessary prelude to the development of appropriate ways for accommodating these eff ects or for deflecting the course of future change. The third objective aims to develop multiple plausible future scenarios for the study region and policy recommendations for the water transfer projects. To meet the second objective the changes in the SE S characteristics as outcomes of water transfer are investigated. The system characteristics examined are: workforce composition, agricultural production, and land use. Further more to understand the factors and processes that influenced the outcome, inter action between the three system components, specifically actors, the resource system and institutions, are analyzed. Such an analysis is essential because the chosen SES in this study a traditional agrarian

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236 society is an inherently complex adaptive system. In SESs, the subsystems differ in characteristics and their responses to disturbances. Social systems are often characterized by path dependency, social traps, lock in situations, institutional stability, innovation etc. (North, 1990). Ecological systems are characterized by threshold, tipping points etc. (Folke et al., 2006). These subsystems in a n SES may mutually support or inhibit the responses of the other subsystems. Therefore, analysis of how the components interact and how the nature of interactio n changes in response to the disturbances is carried out to understand how the outcomes are produced. As complex adaptive systems, SESs are not isolated systems. They are nested multilevel system s and they interact with other systems. Accordingly, the c hosen SES, namely the rural supplying region, in this study interacts with other systems, particularly with the urban receiving region. A comprehensive analysis of interaction between these two systems is carried out to explore how the rural and urban reg ions can adjust and mutually support each other. To address the third objective of this study, three plausible future scenarios are presented based on the understanding of the interaction between variables and outcomes. How rural regions can make internal adjustments and how urban regions can interact with rural regions and enhance the resilience in return for using the Veeranam tank water are explored. The explorat ory narratives of alternate possibilities pave the way f or the development of support measures and policies. This chapter is organized as follows. First, the salient aspects of the project and the study areas are outlined to provide context for the discussion. Next, the changes in system characteristics as outc omes are discussed. Then, the interactions between the three

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237 components of the rural system, specifically the resource system, actors and institutions, are analyzed along with their interaction with the urban system to determine the factors that contribute to the outcome. This is followed by the description of three plausible and desirable future scenarios. Finally, a number of policy implications that emanate from the findings are presented. The New Veeranam Project Chennai Water Augmentation Project I, also known as the New Veeranam Project, is analyzed in this study. This project was implemented in the year 2004 to supply water to the city of Chennai, the capital of from the Veeranam Tank. A comprehensive summary of information on the water transfer project, the supplying region and the receiving region was provided in Chapter Five. The significant features of the case study are presented below. Significant Features of the Receiving and Sending Region Receiving r egion. Chennai City does not have access to a perennial source of water and primarily depends on rainfall in the region. In general, there is a huge gap between supply and demand in Chennai, which widens in drought years. To meet the growing demand, the city has been augmenting water from distant sources. The New Veeranam Project is one such effort. Due to the failure of monsoon s for consecutive years, all the reservoirs serving Chennai went completely dry and the piped water supply system in the city was shut do wn in 2003. Water supply to Chennai City was maintained through water trucks. The New Veeranam Project was executed between 2003 2004 on a war footing to transfer 180 MLD (Millions Liters per Day) of water to Chennai.

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238 Supplying r egion. The Veeranam Tank i s located at a distance of 230 km from Chennai. It was constructed in the 11th century and surface water from Veeranam tank was primarily used for irrigation for many centuries. The Veeranam tank is part of the Cauvery River System in Tamil Nadu, and it r eceives water from both the Cauvery River and its own catchment area. The flow from the Cauvery River is considerably reduced in the last four decades due to the dispute with Karnataka a neighboring state where the river Cauvery originates. As an irrigation tank, it irrigates an area of 18,152 hectares or 44, 856 acres. The total number of villages that benefit from the irrigation system of the Veeranam Tank is 128. The water is distributed to the fields through canals from 28 sluices located along the eastern bund. Paddy is the major crop grown in the study region. Depending on the water availability, the cropping system in the region is either paddy paddy pulse or paddy pulse. The region is a highly cyclone prone zone and often suffers fro m flooding during the northeast monsoon season. It has been considered a multi hazard prone region ( Cuddalore District Administration, 2013) According to the 1991 census, the total number of villagers in the command area is 164, 387 (NEERI, 1994). The gr owth rate in the last two decades in the region is 14% in 2002 2011 and 7.6% in 1991 2001. The region has a majority of marginal and small farmers and very few large farmers. About 85% of the operational holdings are held by small and marginal farmers accounting for about 44% of the total cultivated area (Agriculture Census, 2010 11) Marginal farmers are those who own less than 2 acres of land and large farmers own more than 10 acres of land. Water transfer project. In the New Veeranam Project proposal, many potential benefits to the water supplying regions, such as short term and long term employment of

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239 the local population in the construction and operation phases of the proj ect an increase in the potential for fisheries, an increase in the groundwater table, micro climatic changes, and improvement in the aesthetics of the area, were anticipated. According to the farmers they did not have complete information about the proje ct and there was no public information meeting conducted at the study area before the formal announcement of the project. The performance reviews of the New Veeranam Project report that the objective of increasing the storage capacity of the Veeranam tank from 930 mcft (million cubic feet) to 1,465 mcft through source development work was not achieved (CAG, 2006). Changes in the surface water availability i.e. water available from the Veeranam tank for irrigation use, are discussed in depth in Chap ter Five. Figures 5.11 and 5.12 illustrate that water flow into the irrigation channels has been considerably reduced during the cropping season since the implementation of the water transfer project. The results of surveys and interviews confirm the chang es in water availability. There is also a wide variation in the availability of surface water between head and tail end villages within the study area. When the monsoon fails, Chennai city, which depends on rain fed reservoirs, needs more water. As a resul t, after the implementation of the water transfer project, the maximum possible volume of water is transferred from the tank to Chennai during dry years. Thus, the intensity of water scarcity in the water supplying region during dry years is further amplif ied by the water transfer project. Analysis of System Changes as Outcomes To analyze the process of water transfer in its entirety in a selected case, this study conceptualized the water supplying region in the selected case as a complex Social

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240 Ecological System (SES) and the water transfer process as an external disturbance of the system, since it is an administrative decision (Refer to Fig. 4.1). The purpose of the outcome analysis is to measure and understand the changes in the chosen SES. When a n SES i s subject to disturbances, it responds, changes and evolves over time. The responses and disturbances co produce outcomes in the system ( Schoon & Cox, 2012 ). However, complex outcomes such as resilience, stability, and transformability are not directly observable or measurable. Therefore, in this study the following outcome metrics were identified from the social, economic and ecological variables: w orkforce composition, l and use, and a gricultural production. The first two variables are analyzed at the village level. The third variable, namely agricultural production, is analyzed at the regional level. Changes in System Characteristics Figure 7.1: Land Use Changes (Data Source: Census of India) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Kulappadi (Head end) Parivilagam (Tail End) Kannankudi (Tail End and Proximate to a City) Area In Hectares VILLAGES 1981 1991 2001 2011

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241 Land use Census data on the irrigated land in selected villages show no appreciable change in land use, except in the villages located along the periphery of the Chidambaram town (Refer to Figure 7.1). However, there is a reduction in the gross irrigated area over the years, since the cropping season has been reduced from two to one season. Conversion of agricultural land use to other uses is expected in the future, particularly in the tail end villages. The tail end villages are closer to the town of Chidambaram, and farming in these villages has already been affected by water scarcity. In addition, the growth of the city puts additional pressure on the agricultural land. As a result there will be a considerable reduction in agricultural land in the tail end villa ges in the future. Figure 7.2: Workforce Composition Main and Marginal Workers (Data Source: Census of India) Socio economic c haracterist ics Census data of the selected villages were analyzed to determine the workforce composition. As shown in Figure 7.2, there has been 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1981 1991 2001 2011 1981 1991 2001 2011 1981 1991 2001 2011 Kulapaddi vadamur Kannankudi Number of workers VILLAGES Main Workers Marginal Workers

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242 a marked increase in the number of marginal workers in the last decade, particularly in the tail end villages. Marginal worker s are those who did not work for at least 183 days in the 12 months preceding the census. Figure 7.3: Workforce Composition in a T ail E nd Village: Vadamur (Data Source: Census of India) The d istribution of workers by different industrial categories shows a substantial decline in the number of main cultivators and agricultural laborers; this shows non farm income diversification activities are predominant (Fig ure 7.3 and 7.4). From a regional p erspective, this has been justified because, in a maturing economy, there will be fewer people dependent on the primary sector. However, there is a marked increase in marginal workers in all industrial categories. This indicates that non farm jobs are also seasonal and do not provide year round income. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Main Marginal Main Marginal Main Marginal Main Marginal 1981 1991 2001 2011 Cultivators Agri Laborers HH industry others

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243 Figure 7.4: Workforce Composition in a Head R each Village: Kulapaddi (Data Source: Census of India) Agricultural p roduction Despite the reduction in gross irrigated area, agricultural production is maintained in the region. The study area falls under three different local administrative divisions that include other villages and towns outside the Veeranam command area. Therefore aggregate agricultural production data only for the Veeranam command area could not be calculated, so regional production data, i.e district level data, were used for analysis. Rice production over the last 15 years in the Cuddalore district, where the study area is located, shows a fluctuating trend, but there is no obvious declining trend in production itself. This is attributed to the use of higher yielding paddy varieties. However, to what extent future higher yielding varieties can continue to bri dge the gap in production created by reduction in the gross irrigated area remains to be seen. Though production is is achieved by using more farm inputs. Input costs for items such as fertilizers have risen faster than the market prices of agricultural produce. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Main Marginal Main Marginal Main Marginal Main Marginal 1981 1991 2001 2011 Kulapaddi Cultivators Agri Laborers HH industry others

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244 Inference Analysis of the system changes indicate that the regional agricultural production has not declined in the last decade. If we consider agricultural production as the primary function of the system, the system has maintained the status quo despite water transfer. However, concluding that the system is resilient or that farmers have adapted to the changing condition s may not be warranted. As the data o n workforce composition show, there is an increase in marginal farmers. Moreover, increased productivity has not Farming and rural livelihood are influenced by myriad actions and go vernmental po licy. Therefore, the outcomes cannot be solely associated with water transfer project. For example, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) that guarantees 100 days of unskilled manual work and wages was implemented in 2007 2008. This plan considerably influenced the availability of agricultural labor not only in the study area, but also in the entire country (Refer to chapter six for more details). Thus, it is problematic to precisely pinpoint and measure the impacts of water transfer and resultant changes in the system. In the region where the study area is situated, agriculture is dec lining for several diverse reasons, and it cannot be attributed to a single cause. But based on the analysis it can be concluded that water transfer is accelerating this trend. More people in the study area are taking up non farm income diversification me in the region will decline tremendously in the near future. This connection is demonstrated in the next section by analyzing the interaction between system components.

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245 Intra system Dynamics : Interaction b etween System Components This section presents the analysis of the interactions between system components to better understand the outcomes in an SES and identify the process by which those outcomes arise. Interactions between two of the system components (First tier variables in the SESF) and changes, specifically resource systems and actors, were discussed in the previous chapters. In Chapter Five, the relevant social, ecological, economic and political settings, resource systems and governance systems were described In addition, water transfer was characterized as a disturbance to the SES, and the water inflow and outflow from the tank for the past 30 years w as analyzed to identify the changes in the interaction of the resource system with the other components in th e system after water transfer. In Chapter six, the responses of the actors the most dynamic component in the systems, both individual ly and collective ly to the water transfer projects were presented and the changes in the nature of their interaction with the other components were indicated. The purpose of this section is to highlight the context specific processes. The components of a n SES interact with each other in a variety of ways to adjust to the disturbances and continue functioning Each component i s engaged in a complex process of responses to changes in adjoining or linked components The interaction between the components is n SES (Hinkel et al., 2014). Th ose authors that is, repre sent the dynamics of the SES mak ing explicit which variables influence each other as outcomes are determined (Hinkel et al., 2014; Schlter et al., 2014). conceptualizes inter component interactions as processes in the sy stem as discussed previously in Chapter five and six, and relates them

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246 to outcome s under three categories: Changes in Resource systems; Actor resource system interaction; and Actor institutional system interaction. Within each category the characteristic s of the current path are discussed; options for future pathways are explored; and policy implications are presented. Changes in the R esource S ystem Farmers in the study area are dependent on three sources of water: Rainfall which occurs mainly in October to December, the Veeranam tank, and Groundwater. This study has focused mainly on the surface water transfers from the Veeranam tank and has also touched on issues related to groundwater access. The water transfer project ha s brought a number of changes to the Veeranam tank. It has been made part of the urban system and there is flow of water outside the rural system into the urban system; a new set of actors with higher priority over the resources ha s become part of the syst em; new rules have been introduced, though they are not explicit. Another important finding is that the program to increase the capacity of the tank proposed as part of the project was not completed. As a result, there is a high level of competition for s haring available water, particularly during has been reduced. These changes have altered the nature of the connection between the farmers and the Veeranam tank. Wher e available groundwater is used to supplement surface water during dry periods a ccess to groundwater is limited by the cost of the required infrastructure. Therefore, access to groundwater is unequal among farmers, and this increases inequity among farmer s. Surface water and ground water sources are managed independently by the

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247 state. Groundwater over exploitation and the lowering of the groundwater table are emerging concern s in the region Among all the water resources, the most underutilized and overlooked resource in the region is rainwater. Due to the pattern of distribution of rainfall i.e. concentrated rainfall in a short period of time, a huge volume of fresh water is lost as runoff into the sea I n addition flooding of the region is commo n during the peak rainy season Capturing rainwater and utilizing it for irrigation offers a promising solution for water issues in this region. It can reduce pressure on surface and groundwater resources and reduce storm flow, decreasing the incidence of flooding during peak flows. The above discussion points to two important policy implications : i) All possible water augmentation options in the supplying region should be investigated in the water transfer project proposal; and ii) Implementation of water augmentation plans should be given higher priority while executing water transfer projects. I nteraction between the Actors and t he Resource System I nteraction between the actors and the resource system takes place mainly in the food producing process i.e ., farming. The farming activities and farmers dependence on farming for livelihood ha ve been changing due to a variety of factors. Recently, due to water transfer the following changes in the interaction with the resource system have been observed by farmers: Increased uncertainty of water availability; short supply of water; and more dependence on rainfall for irrigation. s for responding to changes are available both within the agricultural sector and outside the agricultu ral sector. They can either increase or maintain the farm income by adapting to changes in resource conditions or take up non farm jobs.

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248 Most importantly, t he way s the farmers respond to the changing resource conditions in the region are strongly associate d with their response capacities. T hese in turn are especially anticipated by their age, their location and farm size. The study shows that farmers have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to the recent changes. They are mainl y short term coping strategies rather than long term adaptation strategies. Particularly, marginal and small farmers focus on immediate gains in farming. Most of them however, continue to practice what they have been doing for years and follow others in t he villages without consciously taking steps to improve their farming practice or water efficiency. They neither have the necessary resources nor the motivation to improve the ir farming practices. Within farming the options for creating new opportunity a nd innovation are seldom fully explored by the farmers. But i n the future, farming will play a less important role in the livelihood of the people in the study area. T his is n either an efficient nor efficacious path for farming. Within the non farm income diversification path, the opportunities are both conditioned and limited by the level of education and skills of the individuals. Marginal and small farmers are at a disadvantageous position in this response path compared to the large and marginal farmers Large and medium farmers are able to support the ir famil ies with their farm income; they have better access to education and are able to get white collar jobs as a result But, most marginal farmers and small farmers with lower educational levels work in the informal sector earning low wages Recall that over 85% of the farmers in the study area farm small plots insuring only a marginal subsistence so this has several c onsequences.

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249 The non farm jobs provide income during non cropping seasons and help them meet their basic needs. This is positive feedback encouraging more nonfarm diversification measures. But most of the non farm jobs mainly involve manual labor work in the informal sector that pays a wage at the lowest end of the regional wage spectrum They are seasonal, and there is no assurance of job availability. It barely allows them to meet their basic needs. However, survival is not indicative of capability and o ptimality. Though this path cannot be considered as efficient and optimal, the strong link achieves a self reinforcing effect and lock s marginal farming and agricultural labor into a path of economic descent. Potential future pathways further narrow as inc ome diversification options become more and more restricted, and few new initiatives are pursued for creating new farm and non farm opportunities. I ncome diversification activities have secondary effects on agricultural activities. There is less motivation among farmers to improve agricultural practices and increase resource efficiency t hus creating suboptimal conditions for farming. With more dependence on nonfarm income, a reduction in cooperation and social capital is also observed. Traditionally, agric ulture is considered a cooperative action in the region. With many small and marginal farmers in the region carrying out farming o n small parcels of land, cooperation is required among farmers in activities like pest control and water sharing. When the dep endence on farming was high, there was an incentive to cooperate. Now, cooperation has reduced among farmers, as nonfarm income supports most of the households. This again leads to inefficiency in the farming activities and reduces their ability to face f uture challenges. The w eakening of the social order and the associated networks that sustained small scale farming in the past renders farmers and farm laborers

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250 less and less able to construct a more workable future achieved in part through diversification In summary, the current income diversification response path has disposed the actors and the farming activities to suboptimal pathways. Therefore, there is a need to deviate from this existing path and create a new path that allow s them to increase t heir income either in farming or through non farm jobs. The new path need s to increase opportunities and the quality of non farm economic activities and improve farming activities that result in the efficient use of resources and an increase in farm income What options do farmers have to terminate the existing inefficient pathways and create a new path? Path creation within farming. Agricultural activities will be continued in the near future in the region as a secondary economic activity, mainly because of the farmers attachment to place and farming. They will be reluctant to sell the land in the immediate future. Initiatives to improve farming need to be taken both at the individual and community level s At the individual level, acquiring the knowledg e and awareness of more efficient farming methods would be helpful. By learning sustainable resource use and methods of reducing farm input and increasing productivity, they can increase their income from the farm. Instead of depending entirely on governm ental initiatives, farmers can also collectively work together to find actions that are best suited for exi s ting conditions, particularly in matters of water management. They can work cooperatively at many levels, from village to canal to the entire comman d area. Already, a few successful initiative s have

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251 been implemented in the study area, such as collectively maintaining and clearing the irrigation canal. This can be extended to the entire region. Other options such as collective farming or cooperative farming can also be explored to get the best of both small farm operations (labor cost) and large farms (the economy of scale). They can collectively explore options for agricultural value added processing and marketing cooperatives which might create jo b opportunities during non cropping seasons. Moreover, when the farmers are organized, they will gain more bargaining power in all kinds of developmental activities. Path creation in n on farming activities. Raising the skill levels of farmers to increase their chances of finding better non farm jobs and creating non farm jobs within the region are equally important in this path. The region has several historically and ecologically important tourist spots, and the Veernam tank itself is a historically impor tant feature. So, seasonal tourism and recreational facility development, includ ing the tank and the agricultural fields, may be an option for creating non farm jobs. wate r is available ) and those of their children (a strong preference for a career in other sectors) indicate new directions in both pathways can be explored. However, the extent to which the farmers will be able to exercise path creation is questionable. The above mentioned nature of path dependency is an argument for external intervention to help the farmers, particularly marginal and small farmers, to realize their full potential. When water transfers result in adverse impact s on the supplying region, citie s can contribute to these efforts as a form of compensation.

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252 The above arguments point to another important policy implication. In reciprocation of taking water from the rural areas, cities need to assist the supplying region in developing alternate econom ic activities. Interaction between Actors, Resources and Institutions Institutions frame the rules that determine access to resources, and as a result, institutions determine the distribution of resources, benefits and power and indeed power itself, among the social actors. At the same time, they are shaped by those that have the negotiating power (North, 1992). Therefore, powerful agencies can influence the policies, institutions and processes and gain access to resources. Though institutional inno vation is sometimes a product of an extra systemic imposition, in the long run institutions themselves become endogenous both shaping and being shaped by forces operating within the system itself. ion between actors and resources, is determined by formal institutions (Refer to Governance Systems, Chapter 5). How these existing institutions structure the negotiating environment in the decision making process and shape the approaches to the water tran sfer planning process are important aspect s of the interaction between components in the system. The d ecision making process and the distribution of power. The current institutional environment do es little to enable farmers to participate in decision making or to voice their concerns. The existing water policies and laws give the exclusive right to the state government to decide how water is utilized in the state. In general, ad hoc arrangements for diverting water from irrigation projects are found t o be common in the S tate often subverting state policies (Vaidyanathan, 2006). The Chennai Metrowater authorities m ake decision s on water transfer particularly in the summer months and in the

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253 dry year. The new rules related to water transfer are not transparent and made explicit for the farmers. The l ack of opportunity to voice their concerns in the water transfer decision making process has impelled oppositional responses from farmers. To make their voices heard, farmers mainly stage protests, observe fasting and bring media attention to the issue. Protests demanding more water for irrigation are carried out in the study by different organizations operating independently (Refer to Media reports Appendix C, and Community responses to water transfer, Chapter 6). These organizations are formed by many of these organizations work independently. There is no single organization or influential leader that unites all the farmers in the study area or link s them with actors at other scales particularly government official s However, in certain instances, by raising their voice through staging protests, farmers have rece ived water from the Veeranam Tank for irrigation. At the same time, it must be acknowledged that organized participation is a learned capacity. The greater the threat the more rapidly the mastery of means for the coalescence of interests and the expression of their collective needs and demands may accelerate s are limited by the attitude and reluctance of the majority of marginal and small farmers in participating in such activities. Marginal and small farmers focus on meeting their basic needs by earning daily wages and as a result, do not have the time to participate in protests. Moreover, families of the small and marginal far mers have traditionally worked for the large farmers for many generations. In the previously existing conditions, large farmers took up the leadership role and dealt with

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254 matters related to government and other external networking matters. Thus, most small and marginal farmers expect others to solve their problems and help them. With the exit of large farmers and the entry of marginal and small farmers in the last century (Refer to Agrarian Society and Its Transformation Chapter 5) the concept of large fa rmers as traditional village leaders has disappeared. While current large farmers maintain good network s and have initiated leadership activities within the supplying region, they do not have the power to influence state agencies and water transfer decisio ns. Furthermore, most marginal and small farmers perceive urban agencies as powerful and do not believe that their voices will be heard. Instead, they eng age in cove r t actions such as brea king the locks of sluices and releasing water for irrigation at nig ht. Largely, their reluctance to participate in protests or voice their concerns keeps the farmers invisible to the decision making urban actors. The above discussion indicate s that farmers lack political power which is crucial for influencing water t ransfer decisions, and their effort s to build political capital are limited by the attitude of the majority of marginal and small farmers. Political capital is defined broadly as the resources actors can use to influence decision making and realize outcomes in their own interest ( Baumann & Sinha 2001 ). To negotiate new institutional arrangements to access and control resources, they need to organize and bui l d political capital. Political capital can be built up by drawing on other capital such as social capital. However, in the study region social capital is not high and is considered to be declining according to the farmers, as the dependency on non farm jobs is increasing. Bridging organizations that could link and coordinate actors at various levels and facilitate power sharing are nonexisten t in the region. There is also the lack of a

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255 strong leader with the ability to build trust among all actors and c oordinate the actions at different levels. The f accumulate political capital will determine how strongly they can influence the decision making related to water transfer in the future. Appro aches to the planning process. Current approaches to water transfers place an emphasis on technical feasibility and economic appraisal. They tend to prioritize the urban water supply and ignore the long term regional supply and demand issues and project ex ternalities. Mostly, these projects are planned as a reactive measure to water scarcity, and they result in transferring the water problems from one region to another region. The current project is a typical example, and it has set a chain reaction in mot ion in the region. In the new Veeranam Project, the source improvement and water augmentation activities were not implemented before transferring the water (Refer to Chapter Five). Currently, to supply drinking water to the villages in the study area, a s cheme to draw water from the nearby Kollidam river basin has been planned. A water augmentation plan i.e. the construction of a barrage across the river is part of this project. However, the water supply components of the projects are constructed first a nd before starting the barrage construction to augment more water. This has raised concerns among the farmers, since drawing water before taking steps to augment water will adversely affect the farmers in the river basin, and over exploitation of water may result in irreversible damage to the water basin (Ragunathan, 2014) However, there is no formal platform available for the farmers to express their concerns. Characteristics of the current path. The current approach attempts to solve the problem of the water supply in isolated compartments and consequently, transfer the

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256 problem from one area to another. To meet the water demands of the growing population, water readily available in other region s is taken without taking the responsibility to augment w ater and reduce the impact if not improve the condition of the region from where water is drawn. down approach is adopted. This approach ha s solved the drinking water issues considerably, and the projects are considered a success. This perception acts as feedback reinforcing this mechanism and such an approach is likely to be continued. However, this current path has long term implications, a s it merely transfers the problem from one region to another and creates a vicious cycle. The ability to correct this current path may be decisive in achieving long term resilience of the region. Considerations of future pathways What options are availab le to divert this regional economy towards a more sustainable pathway going forward? The results of this study offer directions for the improvement of both the content and the process of planning and have policy implications. State administrators, it appears, seek to derive legitimacy from an approach that they assert is fundamentally technocratic, even apolitical. Technocratic decision making, no matter how well conceived, is imbued with biases of fact, and method, and of the assumptions deployed. Enabling farmers and other stakeholders throughout the wider region an overt voice in policy deliberations could only help to reveal these biases and aid in assuring both rationality and fairness in the long run. The l ack of priorit y for implementing the water augmentation component of the wa ter transfer project is another important issue that needs to be addressed. C ities need to be held accountable ; t he city has the responsibility to protect the region from where its

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257 water is taken to If the augmentation activities are not implemented within a specified timeframe, water transfer should not be allowed to continue. For improving the process and including all the supplying region s concerns, the following criteria need to b e incorpora ted in to the process: t ransparency; a and participation in decision making. A neutral body should be charged with responsibility for monitoring. Inter system Dynamics: Rural U rban Interaction This section discus ses the interaction and interdependence between the rural and urban systems, as inter system dynamics are essential to understand ing the system changes. Water for drinking purposes is given top priority by the National Water Policy, and as a result, meeting urban water supply objectives is of primary importance. The existing institutional environment supports a centralized and techno cratic oriented approach in the planning of water transfer projects The Chennai Metrow ater Agency representing urban interests, is especially influential in decision making. Compared to such powerful urban agencies such as the Chennai Metrowater Agency farmers lack the political capital to influence decision making as discussed in the pre vious section. This has established an asymmetrical distribution of power relations among the actors in the respective linked urban and rural region s Accumulation of power within the urban agency tends to exclude the concerns of rural supplying regions in the water transfer project. Consequently, the long term regional supply and demand issues and project externalities are ignored. The current approach does not provide opportunities for the farmers in the supplying region to participate in the decision mak ing process. Currently, when water is stored in the tank, it meets 10 to 14% of the supply and the Veeranam tank has become part of the urban system through the water

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258 transfer project. Thus, by urbanizing a distant source of water, the city has become much more resilient to water scarcity. However, the impacts of the project are unequally distributed and it has made the rural supplying region more vulnerable. The project and its impact on the supplying region has reinforced the non farm income diversification path of the farmers, particularly the marginal and small farmers. The m igration of marginal and small farmers with low level s of education to urban areas in search of unskilled work result s in the transfer of rural poverty to urban poverty. This may ultimately lead to a decline in agricultural activities and land use change. Declining agricultural activity threatens the future food security of the region as well. The analysis indicates that a problem constructed in a rural region by the actions of an adjoining city might ultimately redound to the detriment of the city at a later stage in the form of hyper urbanization a condition wherein the urban populatio n grossly exceeds urban capacities The current interaction between the city and the rural region is not mutually beneficial in the long term. This section began with an analysis of the changes in the SES characteristics as outcomes of the water transfer. To identify the process by which those outcomes arise, the interactions between system components were analyzed. The analysis identified context specific processes and f eedback loops. Self reinforcing dominant feedback loops result in path dependency of the system. Therefore, identification of critical and self reinforcing feedback loops in the current path is essential to improv ing the path and to creat ing a new path to enhance the resilience of the system or lead the way for the transformation of the system.

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259 Scenario Building : Path to the Desired Future The f uture is rooted in both the past and the present. Though the evolution of social systems is shaped by history, it is not only history that will shape their future trajectories. Many future pathways are possible. Some historically directed pathways are less resilient and become unsustainable. Even when there is substantial momentum behind the temporal elongation of pathways there may appear forces including policy interventions able to deflect the course of change. But only when these interventions are of sufficient magnitude to exert inordinate influence can their consequence be augured with much certainty. This s ection posits a baseline future, then considers deflections off this baseline that could achieve potentially more desirable system states within the water supplying region. By d oing so, I construct several different scenarios each affixed to pertinent mea sures of possible future outcomes. Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention upon causal processes and decision points ( Kahn & Weiner, 1967) In a complex system, scenario development can be used as a tool to craft desirable or alternate possibilities for the future. Depending on the purpose, different approaches can be adopted in the construction of scenarios. The two broad approaches include exploratory scenarios and normative scenarios. Exploratory scenarios articulate different plausible future outcomes and explore their consequences. The normative, or anticipatory approach constructs scenarios advancing towards a more desirable future. When there is a shared vision for the future, the normative method is of ten more preferred, in part because the coalescence of interests in such situations is likely to be instrumental in pursuing this pathway forward. However, aspects of both approaches are combined in scenario

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260 construction in practice. In this study, normati ve scenarios are constructed, and the external or exploratory elements that might change the direction of the path are identified in the narrative. What is the most desirable future for the study region? How can desirable trajectories of development be pr omoted? The challenges to the rural supplying region were reviewed in this Chapter and the analysis has provided some important regional trend lines. The results reveal that the region, which is industrially backward and principally dependent on agricultu re, is not on an optimal path. Water transfer activity is accelerating, well in advance of there being a firm consensus as to how the sending region should respond. The capacity of the farmers to cope and adapt to changes are varied and chiefly determined by the size of the landholding, education and age. Consequently, marginal and small farmers with low levels of education are the most vulnerable in the region. There is a need to steer the region away from this suboptimal current path into a more desirable path. Knowledge of the interactions of components within the region and the local of the desirable future. Three scenarios presented below show different trajectories that the supplying rural region might follow The first one is the baseline or Business As Usual (hereafter BAU) scenario. The other two are normative scenarios. The second scenario Resilience , wherein the region adopts efficient water manage ment strategies. As a result, agriculture is sustained in the region. In the third scenario and to generate a new economic base that includes a variety of additional economic sectors. I n this particular version of Regional Transformation, a predominantly agricultural region

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261 is transitioned into one accommodating both an agricultural remnant as well as eco cultural tourism, rendering it less reliant on water as a principal inpu t. Each scenario is described below along with the actions that need to be taken in order to reach the desired future. The salient features of all three scenarios are presented in Table 7.1. Scenario I Continuation of the Current Trend This scenario rep resents the BAU approach. It is defined by the current trends and forces. In this scenario, water continues to be transferred to the city in the current method wat er needs by the city agencies. Farmers are uncertain about the release of water for irrigation and depend more on rainfall. Affluent farmers extract more groundwater for cultivation and as a result the groundwater table level declines. During peak rainy days flooding is common. Water conflicts are resolved by ad hoc measures. In the dry years, massive protests are organized in the supply region, and when successful water is released for irrigation. Some local initiatives have arisen for the harvesting of rainwater, but they have seldom been successfully extended to the other areas. Farming practices by the marginal and small farmers face the following challenges: lack of assured and timely availability of irrigation water when crop requirements peak; the dwindling of groundwater and lowering of groundwater tables; increased farm input at higher costs; and sub actions to improve agricultural activities are only an infrequent occurrence. The y act when there is a crisis, and they often do so too late or against opposing forces that are either

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262 unable or unwilling to budge. Social inequality increases, and the marginal farmers become more vulnerable to climatic variations and crop price fluctua tions. Government schemes provide compensation under extreme situations. Aged farmers work in 100 day schemes and carry out farming activities that allow them to survive but not to advance their own economic well being. The welfare schemes by government do not reach the needy due to corruption and a lack of awareness among the farmers. Young family members of poor marginal and small farmers with better education move away from agriculture and find non farm fulltime employment in formal sectors. Others with lower education continue to combine seasonal farming and non farm work. They work in the informal sector earning minimum wage during the non cropping season. Land in tail end villages face s increased pressure from real estate development as the town of Chidambaram grows On the one hand, the demand on land for non agricultural uses ste adily increases. On the other hand, farmers are unable to cultivate a single crop successfully due to water issues. This makes the conversion of cropland for non agricultural purposes easy. There is substantial land use change in the region. There is less land under cultivation and even then water available is not sufficient for farming. Gradually, many farmers discontinue their agricultural activities and start to fully depend on non farm work. The tank is con sidered more as the reservoir for the city of Chenna i and not as an irrigation tan

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263

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265 Scenario II Regional Resilience In this scenario the Veeranam command area becomes a highly water efficient region. Water is managed holistically across different uses. This is made possible with coordination across government departments and with community participation. Both the community and government work toget her to harness water from all possible water sources. The following strategies are implemented in the time period of 2 5 years: Policies and strategies for water management are established with community participation Water Users Organizations (WUA) and community organizations are established. They represent community interests in planning developmental activities. Large scale rainwater storage structures such as tanks and barrages are constructed in the region by the Public Works Department of Tamil Nadu Farm level rainwater harvesting initiatives are undertaken by farmers where feasible. G overnment agencies provide technical support and subsidies. The Veeranam tank is desilted and its capacity is increased. Existing traditional village tanks are desilt ed regularly to store more fresh water and they act as rainwater harvesting structures as well. They are managed by the community. Water conserving agricultural and irrigation practices, such as alternate dry and wet irrigation in paddy cultivation, are a dopted. Weather Information Systems are developed to provide necessary information to farmers to help them plan their farming activities based on weather conditions and reduce the damage caused by adverse weather conditions.

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266 Community involvement in water management strengthens social capital and helps to address other community issues as well. Special measures, such as community bore wells, are constructed, so rainwater harvesting interventions benefit marginal and small farmers. This reduces inequity. Dur ing a dry year, the city and farming community negotiate in advance about water sharing. Water is available for successful cultivation of at least one season throughout the region. In a normal year or wet year, farmers grow an additional dry land crop. Th ey are able to get a good yield, due to the assured water supply and irrigating at the right time. Farm income slightly increases. Farmers still depend on small scale farming Farming is carried out mostly as a secondary economic activity by the farmers. T he t ransition of people from agriculture to non farm employment is continued. Non farm work is predominantly casual in nature with most work in construction. However, individuals with a higher level of education work in formal sectors. Agricultural land a round the periphery of the town of Chidambaram is gradually converted to urban residential land. In this scenario, water management strategies enable farmers to be resilient in the face of moderate to severe fluctuations in rainfall. However, continuous dr ought years will be an issue. Cooperation across government agencies is an important factor in achieving this future state. The m arket for agricultural produce determines net farm income. The system may take a different trajectory if one of these factors c hange. The city benefits the most in this scenario. There are minim al or no conflicts due to rural urban water transfers. Farmers still depend on small scale farming Farm income slightly increases. However, social concerns and some poverty persist. Insufficient non

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267 farm jobs in the region lead to migration. Plans are required to reduce social problems and poverty. Scenario III Regional Transformation This scenario achieves the aim of an improved local economy with well established organic farming s upported by eco cultural tourism in the next 5 to 15 years. In this scenario, farmers adopt organic farming, in addition to adopting water efficient systems described in Scenario II. They grow organic grains and pulses using sustainable organic practices. The 1000 year old Veeranam tank and its surroundings are developed into eco cultural tourism sites. The Veeranam tank and its surroundings have a rich history. The region is a model of expert water management techniques developed by the ancient Tamil. The refore, the region is developed to display ancient Tamil culture and traditional farming and water management systems. It provides a learning opportunity for tourists to understand Tamil culture, their water management system and rural sustainable lifestyl e. Along with this, it creates awareness about current water issues and the importance of water conservation The Veeranam tank is a well known water body in Tamil culture for a variety of other reasons as well, so the related activities are introduced as experience. For instance, the Veeranam tank was an important setting in the classical Tamil novel Ponniyin Selvan. Adapting the novel into a stage play and performing it is an ambition for many prominent artists in the region. Therefore, the Veeranam tank is used as a location for seasonal cultural festivals and provides a stage for such efforts. It easily attracts tourists, as it is located close to two other important tourist destinations: Chidambaram Temple and the Pichavaram mangrove forests.

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268 All the farmers adopt new farming techniques in the organic farming movement and use resources efficiently. Low cost farm inputs are locally prepared and used s o farmers earn a higher income from farms by practicing organic farming. Many marginal and small farmers are also involved in collective farming. Community organizations and city officials negotiate and decide on a water transfer and irrigation schedule at the beginning of the cropping season. Even in dry years water is stored in the tank to supply water to the city, so tourism is not adversely affected during dry years. As groundwater recharging and rainwater harvesting strategies are implemented successfully, farmers a re able to grow dry land crops in the dry years. However, they earn lower income. With the introduction of tourism, a wide range of employment opportunities are generated. Tourist flow creates a market for organic produce and other handicrafts. Additional activities, such as farm tours in bullock carts and providing organic regional cuisine to tourist s help farmers supplement their income. There is a regular flow of earning s thereby improving the livelihood. More non farm and self employment opportunities are available in the region. People still migrate to other regions in search of better opportunities, but many stay in the area to a higher degree than before since there are jobs. There is a good community spirit and people work together on many issues. As a result, the local management of resources improves. Part of the money generated at the eco cultural tourist site is re invested in the local community. Different self help grou ps are created to support and empower the vulnerable population in the region.

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269 Delineating the eco cultural zone and establishing by laws ensures that agricultural land conversion to urban use is carefully monitored and regulated. With strict community vi gilance and cooperation water resources are maintained and protected. The achievement of this scenario depends on many other factors. The most important factor is the social acceptance and adaptation of organic farming techniques. The m arket for organic agricultural produce will influence net farm income. Though farmers are better equipped to face a dry year, they still continue to depend on rainfall. Hence continuous drought years will be an issue. It is possible that the system takes a different trajec tory if one of the factor s changes. In this scenario, both the city and the rural region are mutually benefitted. There are no conflicts over water sharing s o farmers are not engaged in covert activities to release water f or irrigation from the tank. Sto ring the water in the tank throughout the year supports tourism, and as a result, the wellbeing of farmers is improved substantially. There is less migration. There is more collective action and efficient use of resources. This indicates that the region is transformed, and as a result, both the social system and ecological systems are improved. Discussion The two scenarios presented above offer a view of possibly more desirable future states of the region. Evolution of the region into the desirable states as described above depends on numerous external and internal factors. It is unlikely that the study area will follow the exact path of either scenario. A specified event or factor in the future, such as successive dry years or the adaptation of a new tec hnology in farming, may act as a bifurcation point and change the system trajectory. These ancillary exploratory scenarios

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270 can be developed within each desired future scenario. However, this is not attempted in the current study. Scenarios were constructed to provide a broad indication of the future state and desired actions. Policies and strategies at multiple scales and different sectors need to be developed to guide the region into a desired future state. Participation and cooperation of civil society a nd government in the design, development, adaptation and implementation of policies and strategies is essential for enhancing the resilience or positive transformation of the overall system. The results of this study offer ideas about possible intervention ist policies and strategies specifically to tackle the mechanisms of social change and water management. Analysis of the interaction between system components in this Chapter and the analysis of the social system in Chapter Six offer guidance on developing strategies and points of intervention. The vulnerability of the majority of the farmers in the system persists due to many self reinforcing processes. In addition, the analysis indicates that the system possesses many attributes that may lead to negative transformational trajectories: unhappiness with the status quo, a lack of long term vision and cooperation, lower social capital, a lack of open networks and bridging capital; inadequate leadership; and a lack of a proactive approach or person al pro activity. However, there are a few other attributes that provide opportunities for positive transformation, such as attachment to place and occupation, emergence of local leadership and collective action, and latent capital, namely high peer bonding social capital and precipitation. The d evelopment and implementation of strategies need s to take advantage of these positive attributes. At the same time, they need to address various system deficiencies. For example, those involving the community in rai nwater harvesting or management of village tanks will not only improve the

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271 management of resources in the region but will also strengthen social capital and build the adaptive capacities of communities as well. Policy Implications The analysis also points to the need for several policies specifically related to water management. The l iterature on water resources and irrigation water management offer s several recommendations for irrigation system management. Organizations, such as the International Water Ma nagement Institute, have published several working papers focusing on the policies and strategies for improving irrigated agriculture, water productivity and governance in the context of Asia. They could be adopted in the study region to improve irrigated agriculture. Policy implications specifically concerned with rural urban water transfers are summarized below, followed by policy recommendations. The current water policies give first priority to drinking water, which creates a favorable environment for implementation of rural urban water transfer. As a result, the current approaches to water transfer focus only on transferring the water for the city water needs and do not consider the long term needs of multiple water users in the supplying region. This may affect the city in the long run, as the migration of rural poor to cities may result in the transfer of rural poverty to urban poverty and further increase the water demands of the city. This approach has resulted in resentment among affected water use rs in the supplying region. Often, this has led to activities demonstrating their opposition. Therefore, a more inclusive approach and more transparent decision making processes are needed in the planning and implementation of water transfers

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272 Even when op tions are available, actions to augment water in the supplying region to reduce the impact or improve the conditions are not given priority. As a consequence, the water security of existing water users in the supplying region is threatened. Measures to red uce the impact of water transfer on existing users need to be given higher priority. The ability to cope or adapt to water scarcity varies among users, and thus, the impacts are distributed unequally among water users. The measures to reduce the impact nee d to take this into account. In reciprocation of transferring water, the city can create learning opportunities, and provide tools to increase water efficiency and conservation. In the case of adverse impacts due to successive dry years, the cities need to assist the supplying region to develop alternate economic activities to water infrastructure. A coordinated approach among all governmental organizations is needed to anticipate the impact and propose mitigation measures. Policy Recommendations 1. Water augmentation in the supplying region should be an integral part of the water transfer project with a timeline for its execution. Its timely execution should be a prerequisite for continuing withdrawal of water for city needs. Rationale. In the state of Tamil Nadu most water sources are already fully exploited and water scarcity is an issue. Therefore, water transfer is bound to increase water scarcity in this supp lying region. Water augmentation by rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge for various uses is proposed by several experts as a viable solution

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273 established 1000 years ago made use of the rain water in the region. Though the traditional system was ignored in the last century, it models the potential and feasibility of rainwater harvesting. 2. Opportunities for saving water through water conservation and efficiency measure s should be researched and identified in coordination with other governmental departments and research centers in the region. Imparting knowledge on water conservation to wa ter users in the supplying region should be an integral part of the water transfer project. Rationale. There is a perception that the agricultural sector uses a large volume of water, and agricultural water conservation measures can easily provide addition al water supplies to meet growing demands for urban water needs. Rural urban water transfers are often justified based on this perception. However, farmers in the region are not aware of the concepts and methods of increasing water use efficiency ; t he stat department has initiated a few programs such as the system of rice intensification. The System of Rice Intensification, known as SRI, is a climate smart, agro ecological methodology for increasing the productivity of rice by changing the management of plants, soil, water and nutrients ( Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, n.d ). However, this knowledge has not reached all farmers. Water transfer planning should identify the opportunities and challenges associated with irrigation water conse rvation in collaboration with research centers and disseminate the knowledge and methods among farmers. Specific attention should be given to establish

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274 a support system and to impart this knowledge to disadvantaged groups within the study region. This will not only conserve water, but also provide the necessary tools to the opposition to water transfer projects. 3. A general purpose water accounting system needs to be developed and maintained for the supplying region to assess the pattern of water use at a given point in time and over a period of time. Rationale. Water transfer projects are implemented under the claim that excess water from a rural area is taken to t he city. Water transfers are typically opposed by existing water users in the supply region under the perception that their share of water is transferred to the city. Such differences in perception arise mainly because data sets on water resources and wat er use maintained in the region are often incomplete or hidden from public access. Thus, there is a need for audited water resource data sets that can be the basis for evidence based decision making and used at the negotiation table. Different levels of da ta and analysis, such as basin, service and use levels, will provide an understanding of the impacts of water reallocation. 4. When the water accounting shows clear winners and losers in the water transfer projects, cities, as a compensation mechanism, need t o assist the region in developing alternate economic opportunit ies Rationale. In many river basins in Southern India, water withdrawn for human use has approached or exceeded the amount of renewable water available. As a result, water transfer projects th at give priority to urban drinking water needs might adversely affect water security of existing water users in the supplying region particularly in the dry years.

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275 In such situations, cities need to share the responsibility to address the problem and assist in developing alternative economic opportunities. 5. Water transfer projects should ensure procedural justice and community participation in the project development and implementation process. Rationale. The result of this study shows that the perception of the water transfer project varied among the farmers, and their responses were also diverse ranging from resentment and organizing protests to engaging in covert activities, such as breaking the lock of sluices and releasing water. As a result, police security was arranged along the banks of the tank during the cropping season in 201 2 Such localized opposition is the result of the perception of water transfer as a n unfair and biased affair. Inclusion of community views and providing access to relevant information will prevent local opposition and stimulate cooperation. Limitations of the Study This research was limited by a few data and analytical barriers. They are related to a lack of disaggregate secondary data, lack of resources to conduct focus group sessions, unavailability of water board officials to share information, and segregation and precise measurement of the impacts of water transfer alone in the sys tem. Such limitations in primary and secondary data collection, and in the analysis and interpretation were presented in Chapter Four and Chapter Seven. They are summarized here. Data c ollection. This research planned to study how rural urban water transfers are viewed from multiple perspectives. However, water utility officials were not available to share their views on the planning of the New Veeranam Project. Between 2002 and 2004, senior offic ials in Chennai Metrowater were deployed in the planning and implementation

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276 phase of the project. All were retired from service when this study was conducted in 2013 and thus were not available for discussion. Focus group sessions, a primary data collectio n method, with government officials and farmers would have provided an opportunity to discuss different views among the stakeholders. Due to resource constraints and the sensitive nature of water issues in the region, such data collection methods could not be utilized. However, farmers showed tremendous enthusiasm, and at times, many key informants gathered at specified locations to answer questions and provide information. Secondary data, specifically disaggregated historical data on water flow in each irr igation canal and on agricultural production, were not available. Therefore, aggregate data on flow in the irrigation canal and district level data on rice production were used. Analysis and i nterpretation. Survey s and interviews were conducted to collect information on farmers views on water transfer. The surveys required respondents to think back o n how certain events unfolded and conditions changed after the implementation of the water transfer project. There was a possibility of respondents distorting information through recall error and selective perceptions. Triangulation of data sources and data types were used to address this issue. Some of the farmers responses were not unique to disturbances related to water transfer, such as diversifying livelihoods. There are many layers of complexity to farmers behavior and the rural agricultural system. As a result, changes in system characteristics, such as workforce composition, cannot be solely associated with the water transfer project. Though data collection and analysis attempted to identify the deliberated responses that

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277 have occurred in order to change or reduce the nature of risks related to water transfer, caution was taken in the presentation and discussion of the results. Suggestions for Future Research Urban consumption of resources from the adjoining regions is increasing due to rapid urban development. Such urbanization of resources is dramatically reshaping the regions surrounding the cities. However, due to a lack of pertinent information and integrated approaches in planning, expanding cities often destroy their source of sustenance. As the study findings indicate, decisions on water use and management are mostly made on the basis of limited information by various actors. Moreover, a sectoral approach is adopted in planning and in developing mitigation measures. Often, resource reallocati ons are viewed as imposed by the stakeholders rather than as a new opportunity for improvement. As a result, projects are met with opposition from people whose livelihoods depend on the resources. These issues can be addressed by facilitating stakeholder p articipation in the process. By including diverse perspectives, exchanging sector or in other sectors. T hese aspects point to areas of further research: developing information systems for water, land and other resources in each region that can facilitate more informed decision residential, agricultural and industrial interact with c hanges in water availability in different contexts; and exploring how water related conflicts can be addressed through inter sectoral approaches, such as proposing mitigation measures or development projects for the entire region.

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278 Summary Cities in developing countries, particularly in India, frequently appropriate water from distant and largely rural supplies through administrative decisions to meet the demand for water. When water is in short supply relative to demand in water supplying regions, rural urban water transfers have multiple consequences for water supplying rural regions. Cumulative impacts are often determined by the way water transfers are implemented, the way farmers respond to changes in water availability, and the form of governmental strategies available to farmers in managing the transition. However, past empirical inquiries r egarding the impact of water transfers on preexisting uses in water supplying regions ignore these intervening or modifying mechanisms, and as a re sult, present contrasting results. This shows that the processes and critical impacts of urban water transfers are not well researched or understood, particularly in the context of developing countries To fill this research gap, the specific case of water transfers from longstanding agricultural uses to the rapidly growing city of Chennai in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu was chosen for analysis. To analyze the process of water transfer in its entirety in the selected case, this study adopted a broad systems perspective, conceptualizing the water supplying region in the selected case as a complex Social Ecological System and the water transfer process as an external disturbance on the system, since it is an administrative decision. The literature on r esilience, Social Ecological Systems (SES), and adaptive capacity informed the identification of variables and the development of propositions in

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279 this study. The Social Ecological System Framework (SESF) is employed to organize multiple variables. The foll owing are the three primary objectives of this research: 1. Identify and categorize diverse individual and community responses to water transfer and examine the social and ecological factors and processes that influence and shape responses to water transfer 2. Examine the changes in social and ecological system characteristics after water transfer, specifically changes in socio economic characteristics, agricultural productivity and water availability. 3. Develop multiple plausible future scenarios and planning recommendations for the study region and the water transfer process using scenario development as an generative and oversight In this study, first, diverse responses of farmers, and association s between different cs, and their responses were analyzed to identify the characteristics highly influencing the ir responses. Then, the changes in the SES characteristics depicting the outcomes of water transfer were investigated. To understand the factors and processes that influenced the outcome, interaction between the three system components, specifically actors, resource system s and institutions, were analyzed. Finally, t hree plausible future scenarios were constructed based on the understanding of the interaction betwee n variables and outcomes that informed the development of support measures and policies. The results of this study demonstrate that farmers are making small adjustments to their farming practices and livelihoods in response to their understanding and perce ption of changes connected to water transfer. These responses revolve around individual rather

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280 agricultural sector and outside the agricultural sector. Three broad ca tegories of individual responses are: agricultural response, non agricultural response, and no response. Agricultural responses are related to water, crops or land, and they are predominantly coping strategies with a focus on short term immediate results r ather than long term adaptation strategies. Non agricultural response options i.e. non farm income diversification measures, are limited by the education level of farmers. Most marginal farmers and small farmers with lower educational levels work in the informal sector for minimum wage. Many farmers have employed a combination of responses, both agricultural and non agricultural. Collective action initiatives found in the study area include actions demanding more water for irrigation and actions to impr ove the use of water available. The e mphasis of community actions is more on demanding water for irrigation during cropping season than on efforts to improve water efficiency. By staging protests, farmers have occasionally received water from the Veeranam Tank for irrigation. To identify and assess the most influe ntial characteristics, association between economic characteristics, social capital, resource dependency and perception s of water issu es, were examined. Size characteristics, such as resource dependency, networks, education, and consequently the choice of response measure. Area of land owned directly i nfluences income and access to higher education. Thus, there is a strong correlation between farm size, income and education. Social capital variables, trust and reciprocity, are not strongly correlated with any of the other characteristics of farmers. The structural social capital component, such as

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281 networks and organizational memberships, are associated with farm size, and it is low among leasing, marginal and small farmers. Resource dependency variables are significantly influenced by farm size. Scores o n employability, business size and approach, ability to cope with change, and groups and networks related to farming have a strong positive correlation with area of land owned, education and income. The analysis of social systems established that the study area is characterized by heterogeneous farmers with different levels of response capacity resulting in different forms of responses. The capacity of the farmers to cope and adapt to changes are var ied and chiefly determined by the size of the landholding, education and age. Area of land owned by a farmer strongly correlated with education level and resource dependency, is also associated with agricultural responses. There is a significant associati on between non agricultural response and age. In this analysis of social system s four propositions related to individual and community responses to changes were examined to gain a better understanding of changes in SESs and the analytic generalization of findings related to the resource users and social systems. Table 7.2 provides a summary of the propositions, evidence and conclusions. The changes in three SES characteristics, namely workforce composition, agricultural production, and land use, as outco mes of water transfer were investigated to understand the system changes. Analysis of the changes indicates that the system has maintained agricultural production. The two important social factors that enabled such adaptive maintenance or resilience of the system through changes in land ownership and other work opportunity for leasing farmers. The prevailing function of the system has not

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282 been altered since agriculture co ntinues to be practiced by farmers in the study area. However the current state and processes cannot be considered resilient because the data on workforce composition show there is a substantial increase in the number of marginal workers. As agricultural activities are declining, there are more marginal workers, and they are more dependent on non farm income. Most leasing and marginal farmers with low levels of education take up unskilled non farm labor work. Since farming has become a secondary economic activity, there are no long term plans related to agriculture among most farmers. There are no initiatives to resolve the underlying challenges related to water and there is no evidence of higher level social learning processes. The diverse responses by f armers, mostly short term coping strategies, do not improve their resiliency against future shocks. This approach may lead to lower system efficiency and agricultural productivity and ultimately lead to land use change. All these factors indicate that ther e are chances of inadvertent negative transformation of the system. This possibility is reinforced by the presence of theoretically identified components for negative transformation of systems: unhappiness with the status quo ; a lack of long term vision an d cooperation ; lower social capital ; a lack of open networks and bridging capital; inadequate leadership; and a lack of a proactive approach or personal pro activity. However, there are some attributes of the social system that provide opportunities for po sitive transformation such as attachment to place and occupation, emergence of local leadership and collective action, and latent capitals such as peer bonding social capital and precipitation. The d evelopment and implementation of water transfer projects need s to take advantage of these positive attributes.

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283

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284 The existing institutional environment supports a centralized and technology oriented approach in the planning of water transfer projects, and the Chennai Metrowater agency, representing urban interests, is more influential in decision making. The current institutional environment does little to enable farmers to participate in decision making or to voice their concerns. This has established an asymmetrical distributi on of power relations between urban and rural actors. Moreover, the current policy environment and governance structure that delimit the response space provide very few options for formal collective action and social learning. The conditions necessary to f acilitate double or triple loop social learning opportunities, such as transparency, active engagement within civil society, and a high degree of citizen participation, are lacking. The current response path has disposed the actors, their farming activiti es and the system to suboptimal pathways. Therefore, there is a need to deviate from this existing path and create a new path that allow s the farmers to increase their income either in farming or through non farm jobs. The new path need s to increase opport unities and the quality of non farm economic activities and improve farming activities that result in the efficient use of resources and an increase in farm income. Further more the analysis revealed that the city of Chennai displayed a strong cap ability t o cope with water scarcity by building the necessary infrastructure and transferring water from the Veeranam Tank in a short period of time and in the process affecting the supplying region. The current water transfer practice reinforces the suboptimal p ath that the supplying region is on, which may ultimately lead to an inadvertent negative transformation of the system creating problems that go beyond the scope of what water supply alone can address. This plausible future system state was

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285 described in th e baseline scenario. In addition, two normative scenarios were constructed: Regional Transformation, a new economic base. The two normative scenarios demonstrate that water transfers can be used as an opportunity to revisit and improve some long standing issues in the systems and the city needs to take responsibility to protect the region water is transfer red from Based on the analysis and results, policy recommendations for rural urban water transfers were presented. As elaborated on in Chapter One, this research primarily contributes to improving the water transfer planning process or other developmental activities that result in changes in resource availability. Additionally, it adds to the body of literature on the dynamics of social ecological systems and individual and community adaptive capacity. The insights and solutions developed in this study may be extended to other places and developmental activities in developing countries exhibiting similar characteristics.

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304 World Bank. (2 001). Measuring Social Capital. Retrieved from http://go.worldbank.org/A77F30UIX0 WRI (2009) The National Adaptive Capacity Framework: Pilot Draft Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. WRO. (2013). Institute for Water Studies activities .Water Resources Organisation. Retrieved from http://www.wrd.tn.gov.in/IWS/IWS_activities.pdf WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme). ( 2012 ) The United Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk. Paris, UNESCO. Yin, R.K (2003). Case Study Research: Design and Methods Thousa nd Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications. Yin, R. K. (2014). Case study research: Des ign and methods (5th ed. ). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications. Yohe, G., & Tol, R. S. J. (2002). Indicators for social and economic coping capacity moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 12 (1), 25 40. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959 3780(01)00026 7

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305 APPENDIX A MEASUREMENT OF VARIABLES The literature on adaptive capacity and SES informed the identification of pertinent variables in this study. Variables listed under Actors in the Social Ecological System Framework (Refer Fig 4.2 and Table 4.1) were measured through the survey. Operationalization and methods of measurement of important variables are described below. The survey questionnaire and the interview guides are attached. Social Capital Social capital is considered multi dimensional in its cha racteristics. Although there is an absence of consensus on definition of social capital and its measurement in the literature, there is a degree of agreement regarding the key components that make up social capital. Putnam (1993, 2000) and most scholars ha ve recognized three core components of social capital: generalized trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks. Thus, social capital is understood as both a structural phenomenon (social networks) and a cultural or attitudinal phenomenon (social norms and tr ust). In addition to the three core components, information and communication, social inclusion, and empowerment and political action are also considered to be other dimensions of social capital. The capacity for collective action is shaped by social capit al and leadership. All these dimensions overlap in practice, and as a result, an inquiry regarding one dimension may shed light on the other dimensions. Survey items from the World Bank Social Capital Assessment Tool (SOCAT) relevant to the study area wer e used in the questionnaire. Mixed methods research approach, which employs both qualitative and quantitative methods, enables the researcher to capture the multi dimensionality and

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306 uncover the links between different dimensions of social capital (Naray an & Cassidy, 1999). Therefore, during the analysis, qualitative data from interviews were integrated with quantitative survey results to construct a more comprehensive representation of social capital in the study area. Trust. In this study, The trust co mponent of social capital is measured as a three item additive index of interpersonal trust based on the average score of the following three five point Likert scale survey items: how many people in the village can be trusted, the chances of others taking advantage of the respondent, and perception of people interested in their own wellbeing. Responses for each of the questions measuring interpersonal trust are recorded on a scale of 1 to 5. Reciprocity. The reciprocity component of social capital measures the actual give and take in everyday interactions in the study area. It is measured as a three item additive index based on the average score of three five point ordinal scale items measuring the following: how many of their neighbors can be counted on f or assistance with a problem, how many of their neighbors would ask the respondent for help if they were in need of assistance, and perception of the nature of relationships among people as harmonious and agreeable. All three items are measured on a scale of 1 to 5. Networks. Networks can exist in a number of forms and at various levels within and between communities (Stone, 2001). They are the structural element of social capital, and it can be both formal and informal in nature. This component is measured as the total number of community organizations and voluntary associations to which one belongs. collected.

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307 Many communities in developing countries, and in rural areas in particular, often lack substantial numbers of formal organizations and in such contexts, it is important to consider other forms of informal social interaction (Krishna, 2002). The survey and interview collected data on informal community wide activities and participation in such activities through survey items in other sections of the survey, such as collective action. Collective action. Social capital allows people to overcome collective action problems more effectively. To measure the collective action in villages and the contributing money, and time toward common goals. Leadershi p. In communities, leadership is often shared by many individuals at various times depending on the situation and the required leadership skills, and the presence of a highly motivated individual with entrepreneurial skills who is respected as a local lead er is considered to promote collective action (Brennan, 2013). Thus, survey items were included to find who the community saw as their effective leaders, what the nature was of interaction with such leaders, and the perception of leadership qualities, such as accountability, relationship of leaders to the community, skills or knowledge, honesty and transparency, and professionalism. In addition to the above, questions on social exclusion, the ways and means by which respondents receive and share information perception of empowerment and the capacity to influence both local events and broader political outcomes were included in the survey to capture the multiple dimensions of social capital.

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308 Resource Dependency Resource dependency describes the nature and m agnitude of the sensitivity of resource users to changes in resource condition or access. Resource dependency, as a variable, has been traditionally operationalized by single economic measures associated with quantification of inputs and outputs. In an eff ort to include non economic measures, Marshall et al. (2007) proposed a framework including social, economic, and environmental components to resource dependency. Based on this framework, survey f social, economic, and environmental dependency on the water resource. Most questions were designed to elicit an attitude, opinion, or stance. The survey included questions related to the following dimensions of resource dependency: attachment to occupati on, employability, family characteristics, attachment to place, business approach, and groups and networks (horizontal and vertical ties) related to resources and farming. Each of these dimensions was measured by five survey items and each survey item was on a five point Likert scale. Water Transfer: Perception and Responses Perception. As a prelude to questions on water transfer, the following open and closed ended questions on water use were included: sources of water in the village, certainty of availa bility of water from different sources in each season, and changes over the years. idea of sharing Veeranam water with Chennai city), a five point Likert scale question (strongly support to strongly oppose) was asked. Additionally, five survey items were included to determine the reasons for their view. Respondents were asked to rate how strongly they agreed w ith each statement using a 5 point Likert scale item. Further,

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309 questions to probe their opinion on the decision making, implementation, and annual water allocation process of the project, and how the water transfer has benefited or affected them, were incl uded. Responses Immediate and ongoing responses. Several open ended and closed ended questions were asked to find their initial response to water transfer, as well as current and planned future responses in farming. A list of responses was prepared base d on the exploratory study and the respondents were asked to select all the relevant items. Response to different future scenarios. willingness to continue farming under different water availability scenarios were ask ed. Further, open ended questions on the problems they foresee for continuing farming activities and their opinion of their children taking up farming in the future were also asked.

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310 APPENDIX B SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE AND INTERVIEW GUIDE Survey Questionnaire SECTION A: Interviewee Information A1. Location: A2. Years of residence in the village: Other than this village, how many other villages have you lived in this region? A3. Gender: A4. Age: A5. E ducation: A6. Occupation: Primary Others Remarks 1. Occupation Do you work on other pay? 2. Income: Proportion of income from farming 3. Experience : No. of years Participation in 100 days work A7. Land use: Area of land in Acres Details of crops cultivated Their average yield. Has it changed over the years? owned Leased/rented Given for lease A8. Family Characteristics: Number of Members : 1 2 3 4 5 6 Remarks Education Number of members involved in agriculture? Does anyone besides yourself help to support you and your household? Occupation A9. Own house / Rented

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311 SECTION B: T r u s t R e c i p r o c i t y and Collective Action B1. In general, how many of the people in your village do you think can be trusted? 1. None or very few of them 4. More than half of them 2. Less than half of them 5. All of them 3. About half of them B2. In this village one has to be alert, or someone will take advantage of you. 1. Agree 4. Slightly Disagree 2. Slightly Agree 5. Disagree 3. Neither agree nor disagree B3. The relationships among people in this village are generally harmonious or agreeable. 1. Agree 4. Slightly Disagree 2. Slightly Agree 5. Disagree 3. Neither agree nor disagree B4. People in th is village are mostly interested in their own well being. 1. Agree 4. Slightly Disagree 2. Slightly Agree 5. Disagree 3. Neither agree nor disagree B5. If you encountered a problem (such as not enough drinking water during the dry season, if you lose a chicken or goat) and needed some assistance, how many of your neighbors could you count on to help you? 1. None or very few of them 4. More than half of them 2. Less than half of them 5. All of them 3. About half of them B6. How many of your neighbors do you believe would ask you for help if they were in the same situation? 1. None or very few of them 4. More than half of them 2. Less than half of them 5. All of them 3. About half of them B7. In the past years, how often have members of this village/neighborhood gotten together and jointly petitioned government officials or political leaders with village development as their goal? 1. Never 3. A couple of times 2. Once 4. Frequently a. Was this action/were any of these actions successful? 1. Yes, all were successful 2. Some were successful and others not 3. No, none were successful B8. How many times in the past have you participated in the above said projects or joined together with others in the village/neighborhood to address a common issue? 1. Never 3. A couple of times 2. Frequently 4. Once

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312 B9. People in this village contribute time toward common development goals 1. Agree 4. Slightly Disagree 2. Slightly Agree 5. Disagree 3. Neither agree nor disagree B10. People in this village contribute money toward common development goals. 1. Agree 4. Slightly Disagree 2. Slightly Agree 5. Disagree 3. Neither agree nor disagree Social Inclusion B11. Are there any service where you and members of your household are occasionally denied service or have only limited opportunity to use? Yes/ No If yes, Please explain__________________________________ Information and Communication B12. What are the primary means of communication among your village residents? How do you get information about your village? 1. Friends and Relatives 2. Neighbors 3. Village Leaders 4. Others____________________ Formal and informal networks: B13. Do you participate in any organization or groups? If yes B13a. What is the name and purpose of the group? B13b. Do you believe that joining the group has benefitted you in anyway? If No B13c. Why do you think you have decided not to take part in a village club or group? 1. Too busy/not enough time 2. Simply not interested 3. There is not a group that suits me 4. Don't like people in the groups 5. Other_____________________________ B13d. Do you believe that joining a group or club could benefit you in the future? B14. In your opinion, how much good do you think village groups have done for the village? 1. A Lot 2. Some 3. Not Much 4. None at all

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313 Local Leadership: B15. Who are the main leaders in this community? B16. Is there a group of people who are generally recognized as village leaders even though they do not hold government offices? Who are these individuals (name or title)? B17. What is the nature of interaction with the leaders? How often do you interact? Leadership Quality B18. In general, how would you characterize the quality of leadership in your village in terms of Excellent Good Adequate Poor Very poor 1. Accountability 2. Relationship of leaders to the community 3. Professionalism/ skills /Knowledge 4. Honesty/ transparency State society relationship B19. In your opinion, how much do you think the government of Tamil Nadu helps your village with its water needs? 1. A Lot 2. Some 3. Not Much 4. None at all B20. Do you believe that residents in your village have any influence on government decisions made regarding wate r planning decisions that affect your village? B21. In your opinion, what is the prime challenge facing your community at present? What should be done first to overcome this challenge?

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314 SECTION C: RESOURCE DEPENDENCE C1. Attachment to occupation Strongl y Agree Agr ee Neither agree nor disagree Dis agr ee Stron gly Disa gree a. I love being a farmer or doing farm related work. I cannot imagine myself in any other role b. The agricultural activity to me is a lifestyle it is not just my job. c. I have been tempted to leave the land and search for an alternative income/lifestyle elsewhere d. I am proud to tell people that I am a farmer. C2. Employability Agree SA NA/A D SD Disa gree a. I have many options available to me other than being a farmer. b. I could easily get a job elsewhere or I work/ have worked outside of the agricultural sector. c. I have completed a trade specific course d. I would find it very difficult having to work for someone else e. *Age ( Include in analysis ) C3. Attachment to place Agree SA NA/AD SD Disa gree a. I feel like I belong to this community/ village. b. The friendships I have with people in this village mean a lot to me c. I plan to be a resident of this village for many years d. I will probably leave my land sometime in the future e. *Mean years living on their land

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315 C3f. What do you believe are the main strengths of your village as a community? (You may list up to three) C3g. What do you believe are the main weaknesses? C4. Business size and approach / Financial status Agree Slightl y Agree Neither agree nor disagree Sligh tly Disa gree Disa gree a. I am always thinking of new and better ways to improve farming activities b. I try to attend regional workshops that might assist me in my business as much as I possibly can c. I always get professional advice before making a major Farming decision d. Our land will probably have to be sold if farming fails for many years e. I do not have the skills to protect my land from drought C4 b. How many droughts have you experienced? C5. Ability to cope with change Agree SA NA/AD SD Disa gree 1. I can cope with small changes in the agriculture sector particularly water availability 2. I am not competitive enough to survive in the industry much longer 3. 4. I have many options available to me other than being a farmer 5. I am confident that Things will turn out well regardless of the changes I confront

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316 C6. Groups and Networks (horizontal and vertical ties) related to resources and farming Agree SA NA/AD SD Disa gree 1. I feel as if I can contact agri extension officers if I need additional information about farming 2. I usually find out information about farming through friends and associates 3. I feel out of touch with what is happening in the industry and water availability at a political level 4. I feel comfortable talking with my local elected representative about water/crop/land related issues 5. I feel comfortable talking with my local association representative, such as Farmers association, about water/crop/land related issues SECTION D: Water Transfer: Perception and Responses D1. What are the sources of water for your village? How long have you (people in your village) been using these sources of water? Uses of Water Sources Time Volume used a. Agriculture (different seasons) b. Domestic Drinking c. Domestic other household purposes d. Other uses D2. How certain are you of the availability of water from different sources in each season? Water Sources Certain Somewhat certain Neither certain nor uncertain Somewhat uncertain Uncer tain a. Veeranam lake b. Ground water c. Others a. Has it changed over the years? D3. Who are the users of Veeranam water? According to you who all have the right to use water?

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317 D4. What is your level of support /opposition to the project i.e., the idea of sharing Veernam water with Chennai city. 1. Strongly Oppose 4. favor 2. Oppose 5. Strongly Favor 3. Neutral Strong ly Agree Agre e Neither agree nor dis agree Disagr ee Stron gly Disa gree 1. Government policies strongly favor cities and not farmers in villages; Water transfer is an example. 2. If totally agree with the reasons for transferring water to Chennai; I think it is fair. 3. I would say that I have been significantly affected by water transfer. So I oppose it. 4. Drinking water always gets the first priority. So we cannot oppose water transfer 5. If there is anything I could do to stop water transfer to Chennai, I would definitely do it. D5. D6. What is your opinion on the following aspects during the decision making, Implementation and Annual Water allocation Process of the project? On a scale of 1 5 where 1. Ineffective /Dissatisfied 4.Slightly Effective /Slight Satisfied 2. Slightly ineffective /slightly dissatisfied 5. Effective / Satisfied 3. Neutral Level of transparency and information sharing 1 2 3 4 5 Representation and Participation 1 2 3 4 5 Fairness Equity and respect 1 2 3 4 5 D7. In your opinion, what could have been done to improve the above? D8. In your view, how has as the water transfer benefited or affected your communities? 1. Negative effect 4. Slightly benefited 2. Slightly negative effect 5. Benefited 3. No effect D3a.Please explain, how it has benefitted or affected your community?

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318 D9. Has the seasonal availability of water changed in anyway after the Veeranam Project? Yes No How much? a. Kuruvai (May June to Aug Sep) b. Samba ( Sept Oct to Jan Feb) c. Navarai (Dec Jan to March April) a. If yes, please explain the nature of changes. Has it changed the way in which you use water? b. What actions have you taken about it? Or what do you plan to do? D10. Is it possible for you to predict the availability of water in each season? D11. How much water do you think will be available to you in future? 1. Much More 4. Slightly less 2. More 5. Much lesser 3. Same as what I get now SECTION E: RESPONSES Immediate and O ngoing Response E1. What was your initial reaction to the project? (opposed, not aware of consequences etc.,) E2. E3. What was your level of participation in those activities? 1. Never 4. Frequently 2. Once 5. All 3. A couple of times E4. What are the continued activities? Do you support these activities? E5. After the implementation of Veeranam project have you joined any association or organization? Yes/ No If yes, Please name the association _________ _________________________ Water related Networks E6. Who represents your concerns related to water? Is there a grouping of people or organization who generally deal with village water issues?

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319 E7. How effectively do they represent your interests? 1. Ineffective /Dissatisfied 4.Slightly Effective /Slight Satisfied 2. Slightly ineffective /Slightly dissatisfied 5. Effective / Satisfied 3. Neutral E8. Responses till now Responses Yes No Details 1. Continue doing what I have been doing 2. invested in Alternate source of water 3. Using different approaches a. Changed to another crop type b. Changed timing and Volume of water use c. Using a new Technology 4. Changed my location 5. Changed my occupation 6. Others Selling Assets Other uses of land Invested in Learning new skills Investing in my families education Probe: a. Why did you choose to do the above? b. Did you receive any external support for any of the above response? Who helped you? How? a. If it fails what will you do next? b. If you have not done the above what would have happened? c. What was the tradeoff? d. Are there any consequences? If yes, what are they? E9. Is there some other alternative action that you want to do, but cannot do due do certain reason ? what are they? (analysis of response space) E10. What kind of information do you need to plan your actions? Do you have access to it? If not, Why? What are the barriers?

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320 E11. Future planned responses Responses Yes No Details 1. Continue doing what I have been doing 2. Plan to use or invest in Alternate source of water 3. Use different approaches a. Change to another crop type b. Changed timing and Volume of water use c. Use a new Technology 4. Change my location 5. Change my occupation 6. Plan to completely change the way I manage my property in order to survive as a farmer E12. Would you like your children to have agriculture as the primary occupation? Yes / No Why? E13. What do you do when surplus water is available? Are there any consequences of these actions? If yes, what are they? Response to different future scenarios E14. How will your farm activities be affected or How will you respond in future under the following scenarios? a. If the same scenario continues i.e., If the same quantity of water is available b. If lesser water is available 25% less water is availab le___________________________ 50 % less water is available __________________________ 75% less water is available____________________________ c. When would you cease to end farming? d. If more water is available E15. Are you willing to contribute you time towards maintenance of irrigation infrastructure? (Like the traditional Kudimaramath System system of community labor for maintenance) If yes How much? Number of days in a year __________________

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321 E16. What other challenges do you anticipate in the future? How would these affect you? What can be done about them? Perception of Changes: F1. Please specify the nature of changes in the following l characteristics in the last 10 years Regional characteristics Wor se A little Wor se No cha nge A littl e bett er Bet ter What are the reason s for this change Have the communities responded to these changes, in any way? Yes/ No How? 1. Changes in the economic opportunities/ employment levels, and options 2. Changes in harvests/Yields? Agricultural productivity 3. Changes to the cohesion of your community 4. Changes in to the physical environment? G1. Is there anything else that is important regarding water that you would like to share?

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322 Key Informant Interview Guide Interviewee Information: Location: Gender: Age: E ducation: Income: Years of residence in the village: Area of land owned: Organizational memberships: (Position held, if any) GENERAL: VILLAGE INFORMATION AND HISTORY 1. What are the principal economic activities in your village? Has this changed over the years? 2. Are there members of this community who go to other places to work during certain periods of the year? 3. In the last 10 years, has the community organized to address a need or problem? If yes, around what issue(s) did the community organize? 4. Who are the main leaders in this community? (Probe formal and informal leadership.) What is the role of the community leaders? 5. Please list all the organizations (both formal and informal) that operate in your village. WATER 6. What are the sources of water for your village? How long have you (people in your village) been using these sources of water? 7. How certain are you of t he availability of water from different sources in each season? 8. What are the water sharing rule s and criteria in your village? How is this decided during wet, dry and normal year? 9. Do conflicts arise between water users? If yes, lease explain the nature and causes of conflicts? How are these conflicts resolved? WATER TRANSFER 10. sharing Veernam water with Chennai city.

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323 11. Who participated in the decision making and Implementation Process of the project? RESPONSES TO WATER TRANSFER 12. 13. W hat was the immediate action taken by the community? Explain. 14. What long term actions have been taken by the community? Explain. 15. Has the seasonal availability of water changed in anyway due to Veeranam Project? If yes, Please explain the nature of changes 16. W hat does your community do in times of water shortage? (Probe for Changes in the farming strategy; Timing and volume of water use; any other investment activities; Use of other sources of income. Ensure that answers include long term and short term strat egies and include technologies infrastructure development, information sharing, self organizing and networking activities, and institutional mechanisms) 17. What do you do when surplus water is available? 18. In your view, how has as the water transfer benefite d or affected your communities? Please explain, how it has benefitted or affected you. CHALLENGES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE 19. From your perspective, list the forces that influenced your community and agriculture in the past. 20. In your opinion, what is the prime challenge facing your community at present? What should be done first to overcome this challenge? 21. What other challenges do you anticipate in the future? How would these affect you? What can be done about them? Recommendations for Additional Informat ion: 1. Can you recommend anyone else who may be able to provide useful information concerning water use? 2. Can you suggest any documents or any other resources concerning water that would be helpful? 3. Is there anything else that is important regarding water th at you would like to share? Thank you for your time and insight.

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324 APPENDIX C DOCUMENTS, PAMPHLETS, AND NEWS ARTICLES Contents 1. Environmental Assessment of Second Madras Water Supply Project New Veeranam 2. Images of pamphlets in Tamil prepared by the farmers associations 3. News Articles a. A pipe dream? b. Campaign against Veeranam motivated c. Veeranam water being diverted to Chennai, farmers suspect d. Veeranam extension project soon e. CM to inaugurate New Veeranam extension project today f. New Veeranam project opposed g. Veeranam Extension Project dropped h. Veeranam farmers observe fast, seek royalty on water tap ped from the tank for Chennai i. Open Veeranam for farms: Ryots j. Sanction to desilt Veeranam tank meagre k. Disgruntled ryots desilt Radha canal l. Sluice gates

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325 1. Environm e ntal Ass e ss me nt of S ec ond M a d r a s W a ter S upp l y P roj e c t N e w V ee r a n a m

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334 On li n e e d i t i o n o f I n d i a s N a t i o n a l Ne w s p a p e r S a t u r d a y S e p 25 200 4 Tamil Nadu N e w s : F ro n t Pa g e | N a t i o n a l | T a m il N a d u | A n d h r a P r a d e s h | Ka r n a t a k a | K e r a la | N e w D e l h i | O t h e r S t a t e s | I n t e r n a t i o n a l | O p i n i o n | B u s i n e s s | S p or t | M i sc e ll a n e o u s | A d v t s : C l a ss i f i e d s | E m p l o y m e n t | O b i t u a r y | T a m i l N a d u V ee r a n am w a t e r b e i n g d i v e r t e d t o C h e nn a i f a r m e r s s u s p e c t B y Ou r S p ec i a l C o rr es p o n d e n t C U DD A LO R E S E P T. 24 C u dd a l o r e d i s t ri c t f a r m e r s a r e a pp r e h e n s i v e t h a t w a t e r i s b e i n g s t e a l t h il y d r a w n fr o m t h e V ee r a n a m t a n k t o f ee d t h e C h e nn a i W a t e r S u pp l y A u g m e n t a t i o n P r o j ec t I a n d t h a t t h e y a r e n o t b e i n g t a k e n i n t o c o n fi d e n ce T h e y a r e u r g i n g t h e T a m i l N a d u G o v e r n m e n t t o d es i s t fr o m t a k i n g w a t e r fr o m t h e t a n k f o r C h e nn a i i f i t r e a ll y i n t e n d s t o s a f e g u a r d t h e i n t e r es t s o f o n e l a k h a g ri c u l t u r a l f a m ili e s a n d fi v e l a k h a g ri c u l t u r a l l a b o u r e r s i n t h e r e g i o n T h e y a l s o h i n t t h e y m i g h t o b s t r u c t s u c h a m o v e T h e l e a d e r s o f f a r m e r s a ss o c i a t i o n s v o i ce d t h es e se n t i m e n t s a t t h e F a r m e r s G ri e v a n c e D a y m ee t i n g c o n v e n e d b y t h e C o ll ec t o r G a g a n d ee p S i n g h B e d i h e r e t o d a y M r B e d i s a i d M e t r o w a t e r w a s d r a w i n g 15 2 0 c u sec s o f w a t e r fr o m t h e t a n k f o r t es t i n g p u r p o ses a n d t h i s w o u l d c o n t i nu e f o r a b o u t a w ee k T r an s pa r en c y T h e d i s t ri c t p r es i d e n t o f t h e T a m i l N a d u V i v a s a y i g a l S a n g h a m T R V i s w a n a t h a n c a ll e d f o r t r a n s p a r e n c y i n w a t e r m a n a g e m e n t a n d s t a t e d t h a t t h e a y a c u td a r s i n t h e t a il e n d a r e a s w e r e y e t t o g e t w a t e r e v e n n i n e d a y s a f t e r t h e t a n k s l u i ce s w e r e o p e n e d f o r irri g a t i o n G i v e n t h e s t o r a g e l e v e l i n t h e t a n k ( 41 7 f t t o d a y ) t h e q u a n t u m o f r e l e a s e i n t h e c h a nn e l s w a s m e a g r e a n d t h i s s t r e n gt h e n e d t h e d o u b t t h a t w a t e r w a s b e i n g t a pp e d f o r C h e nn a i M r V i s w a n a t h a n r e q u es t e d t h e C o ll ec t o r t o t a k e r e m e d i a l m e a s u r e s t o c h ec k t h e d e p l e t i o n o f g r o un d w a t e r (o w i n g t o g i a n t b o r e w e ll s ) T h e p r es i d e n t o f t h e K o lli d a m K ee l a n a i Paa s a n a V i v a s a y i g a l S a n g h a m V K a nn a n s u s p ec t e d t h a t t h e q u a n t u m o f w a t e r b e i n g d r a w n f o r t es t i n g p u r p o s e m u s t b e 7 5 c u sec s a n d c h a r g e d t h e o ffi c i a l s w i t h w i t hh o l d i n g t h e i n f o r m a t i o n A d ee p p i t d u g n e a r t h e i n t a k e t o w e r ( d r a w a l p o i n t f o r t es t i n g ) w a s g e tt i n g fill e d b y t h e T h o tt i V a i kk a l a n d t h e s il l l e v e l o f t h e t o w e r see m e d t o b e 3 9 f t a s a g a i n s t 4 2 f t o f f o u r c h a nn e l s A n a i kk a l K oo l a p a d i Ne w V az h a K o ll a i a n d A ll u r S a t h a m a n g a l a m a n d 43 5 f t o f t h e n e w l y b u il t V ee r a n a m Ne w S u pp l y S l u i c e ( m e a n t f o r irri g a t i o n )

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335 S u c h a n a rr a n g e m e n t w o u l d e n a b l e t h e w a t e r t o r e a c h t h e i n t a k e t o w e r fir s t a n d t h i s c l e a rl y s h o w e d w h e r e t h e p ri o ri t y li es i e. c a rr y i n g w a t e r t o C h e nn a i T h e a c u t e w a t e r sc a r c i t y i n C h e nn a i c o u l d h a v e b ee n t a c k l e d h a d t h e a u t h o ri t i e s p r e v e n t e d t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f w a t e r s o u r ce s i n t o r e a l es t a t e a n d m u l t i s t o r e y e d a p a r t m e n t s M r K a nn a n s a i d W i t h o u t a n y c o n ce r n f o r t h e p li g h t o f t h e f a r m e r s w h o h a d e i t h e r s o l d o f f o r p l e dg e d t h e i r v a l u a b l e s t o t i d e o v e r t h e d r o u g h t i n t h e p a s t t h r e e y e a r s i t w a s n o t f a i r o n t h e p a r t o f t h e G o v e r n m e n t t o a d d t o t h e i r m i se r y b y d e n y i n g o r c u r t a ili n g w a t e r s u pp l y f o r irri g a t i o n h e a dd e d T h e C o ll ec t o r s a i d t h e g e n e r a l d ir ec t i o n w a s t h a t w h e n e v e r t h e t a n k h a d s u r p l u s o r w a t e r w o u l d h a v e t o b e d r a i n e d i n t o t h e se a i t w o u l d b e t a pp e d f o r C h e nn a i H o w e v e r t h e C o ll ec t o r a g r ee d t o c o n v e y t h e o b se r v a t i o n s o f t h e f a r m e r s t o t h e G o v e r n m e n t

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336 O n l i n e e d i t i o n o f I nd i a's N a t i o n al Ne wspa pe r T hu r sday, O ct 1 8 2 0 07 e Pa p e r Tam i l N a d u V e e ran a m f a r m e rs obs e rve f a s t, s e e k r o y alty on wa t er t ap p ed f r om the tank f or Ch en n ai A.V. Ra gun a th an t y c o u ld b e f i x e d at t h e r a t e o f o n e p a i sa a li t r e r m e r s i nte r e sts b e i n g neg l e c t e d : f o r m e r M P U N I TE D PR OTE S T : A s e c t i o n of t he V e e r a n a m a y a cu t d a r s o b s e r v i ng a f a st on W edn e s d a y, de m a n d i ng r o y al ty on t h e wa t er t a p p ed for C he n n ai C U DDA L O R E : A s e ct i o n o f a yac utd a r s o f th e V e er a n am ta n k o b se r v e d a f ast o n W e dne sday, d e m and i n g r o ya l t y o r s u i t a b l e co m p e n sat i o n f o r wa t e r ta p p e d fr o m th e ta n k f o r C h e nn a i I t w a s or g a n i s e d u n de r th e a e g i s o f th e V e ttu v a i k k a l Na r a i k k al E r i P aasa n a V i vasay i g a l S ang am at K a nd ak u m ar an o n t h e ba nk s o f th e t a n k. S angh am p re s i d e n t K.V. E l a ng eer an s a i d t h e t a n k was a c r u c i al s up p l y p o i n t fo r C h e nn a i c o n s i st e nt l y f e e d i n g 77 c u secs o f wa te r t o t h e met r o p o li s. I t h a d b ee n i rr i g a t i n g abo u t 4 5 ,000 a c r e s. E v e r s i n ce t h e wa te r w a s d i v er t e d to C h e nn a i su p p l y t o th e ta i l e n d a re as h ad b ee n curta i l e d H e s a i d t h e r o ya l t y c o u ld be f i x e d at t h e r a t e o f o n e pa i sa a l i t re T h e a m o un t co u l d be d ep o s i t e d w i t h t h e d i st r i ct ad m i n i st r a t i o n w h i ch, in t u r n c o u l d s p e n d i t o n i m p ro v i n g t h e l o t o f f a r m e r s a n d e x t e nd i n g f a r m l o a n s. O t he r de m a n d s T h e i r o the r d e m a nd s i n c l ud e d d ee p e n i n g t h e ta n k t o a ug m e n t i t s st o r a g e c a p a c i t y, d e s i l t i n g R a j an a n d C h a nd r an c a n a l s a n d r e c o n st r u ct i n g t h e b und s o f V e ttu va i k k al t h at was f l a tt e n e d f o r two k il o met re s w h i l e l a y i n g a ro a d

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341 APPENDIX D SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Table 1. Transfer Mechanisms from Agriculture to Urban Uses with Examples Without Compensation With Compensation Formal and Informal Rights A. In a free market Not applicable Tanker sales in Chennai, Amman and numerous other cities; Traditional Spanish markets B. In a regulated market Not applicable The California Water Bank; Markets in the USA, Australia, Chile etc. C. By legal means Limited term rights (UK); Expropriation for environmental objectives (Australia objectives (USA); Change in law (South Africa) Expropriation for environmental objectives (USA) Administrative Decision A. By formal decision Reallocation during droughts in most cities Industries pumping from irrigation canals (Isfahan and Chiang Mai) Purchase of wells or reservoirs (or water from them), in Chennai, Seville and China. Dam water to Seville; Melamchi to Katmandu. Compensations can also be in terms of technical interventions (lining) stealth by means of management of existing resources Operation of the Angat reservoir in Manila; Kinjhar lake for Karachi (drought periods); Northern China reservoirs, etc. by means of investment in diversions from rivers/reservoirs New diversions to Hyderabad, Bandung, Karachi, Amman, Monterey, Mexico, etc. Diversion of Mae Klong to Bangkok* by means of investment in wells Out pumping of agricultural users in Yemen, Mexico, China, etc. by means of encroachment on irrigated areas or tanks Encroachment of tanks in Bangalore Land purchases e.g., Cairo, Lima, Bangkok, etc. (Source: Molle & Berkoff, 2006)

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342 Table 2 Hydraulic Particulars 1. Full Tank Level (F.T.L.) + 45.50 Ft. (13.870m) 2. Maximum water level (M.W.L.) + 48.00 Ft. (14.630m) 3. Catchment 165 Sq. miles 4. Capacity at FTL (Original) + 45.50 1923 1441 Mcft 5. Water spread at FTL 28 Sq. miles 6. Maximum Width 3.5 Miles 7. Circumference 25 Miles 8. Length of main bund 10 miles 9. Width of bunds 18 to 24 Feet 10. Length of foreshore bund 5 Miles 11. No. of sluices 34 no.s: 28 in the eastern bund and 6 in the foreshore bund (Source: PWD, Lalpet, Chidambaram Division)