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The supply of and demand for public elementary school principals in Colorado

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Title:
The supply of and demand for public elementary school principals in Colorado a five-year projection
Alternate title:
Supply and demand of elementary school principals
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Heydt, James Timothy
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Denver, CO
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University of Colorado Denver
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English
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xii, 117 leaves : illustrations, forms ; 29 cm

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Elementary school principals -- Supply and demand -- Colorado ( lcsh )
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bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

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Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-104).
General Note:
Spine title: Supply and demand of elementary school principals.
Thesis:
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree, Doctor of Education, School of Education and Human Development
Statement of Responsibility:
by James Timothy Heydt.

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|University of Colorado Denver
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ocm23534189
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Full Text
THE SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR PUBLIC
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PRINCIPALS IN COLORADO:
A FIVE-YEAR PROJECTION
by
JAMES TIMOTHY HEYDT
A.B., University of Michigan, 1968
M.A.University of Michigan, 1969
A thesis submitted to the
Faculty of the Graduate School of the
University of Colorado in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Education
School of Education


Copyright 1989
James Timothy Heydt
All rights reserved.


This thesis for the Doctor of Education degree by
James Timothy Heydt
has been approved for the
School of
Education
by
Date /A /7'%0


Heydt, James Timothy (Ed.D., Education)
The Supply of and Demand for Public Elementary School Principals
in Colorado: A Five-Year Projection
Thesis directed by Professor Russell W. Meyers
This study projected the demand for public elementary
school principals in the state of Colorado over a five-year
period, concluding with the 1991-92 school year, and determined
whether the projected supply of certificated candidates was
sufficient to meet that demand.
Researcher-designed questionnaires were mailed to 244
randomly selected principals, 33 assistant principals, and
170 individuals certified as principals but not in principal
positions. Return rates of 99.6 percent, 85 percent, and
49 percent, respectively, were obtained. Returned question-
naires provided data regarding the age; tenure in Colorado,
present district, and present position; certification;
job responsibilities; retirement; and professional plans.
Another questionnaire was mailed to 173 superintendents
to substantiate the published data concerning the number of
principals in the state and to determine the superintendents'
expectations to add or delete principal positions within their
districts. A return rate of 92 percent was obtained.
Data provided by the Colorado Department of Education
were used to determine trends in the number of elementary


iv
endorsed administrative certificates issued yearly, and
student enrollment trends and projections. These data were
employed to project the supply and demand.
The study projected that 794 elementary principals would
be employed for the 1992-93 school year and that the supply of
certified individuals would far exceed that demand. However,
unwillingness to relocate and minimum effort to obtain a
position outside the immediate geographical area may lower the
available supply considerably.
The form and content of this abstract are approved. I
recommend its publication.


V
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This project passed from thought to completion through
the assistance of many kind, understanding people. I particu-
larly want to thank Russell W. Meyers for his patient, guiding
hand. Thanks also go to Cheryl Hermann, Richard Gordon, and
Carol M. Kelly for their valued assistance in compiling data.
I am especially grateful to Linda Haley for her thoughtful
editorial advice. Thank you Mom and Dad for 42 years of
constant encouragement. And to Marla, Jeff, and Mark, I love
you for being with me throughout.


CONTENTS
CHAPTER
I. INTRODUCTION......................................... 1
Purpose of the Study............................... 4
Data Gathering..................................... 5
Statement of the Problem........................... 5
Significance of the Study ......................... 6
Definition of Terms ............................... 6
Assumptions ....................................... 8
Limitations ....................................... 8
Organization of This Dissertation ................. 9
II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE............................ 11
History of the Principalship...................... 11
Future of the Principal........................... 14
Enrollment Statistics ............................ 17
Supply and Demand Studies ........................ 19
Chapter Summary .................................. 22
III. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY..................... 24
Data Collection................................... 24
Description of the Questionnaires .............. 25
Selection of the Participants................... 28
Related Data Sources
29


vii
Means of Analysis................................. 30
Supply.......................................... 30
Demand.......................................... 31
Assumptions..................................... 32
Chapter Summary .................................. 33
IV. PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA................... 34
Questionnaire Response............................ 34
The Elementary School Principal .................. 35
Age and Experience as an Elementary
Admins trator................................. 36
Tenure in Colorado Public Schools,
Present District, and Present Position. . 37
Certification .................................. 40
Supervisory Responsibilities.................... 41
Professional Plans for the Future .............. 42
Principal Summary .............................. 44
The Elementary School Assistant Principal ... 44
Age and Experience as an Elementary
Administrator ................................ 45
Tenure in Colorado Public Schools,
Present District, and Present Position ... 47
Certification and School Size................... 49
Professional Plans for the Future .............. 51
Assistant Principal Summary .................... 52
Current Supply.................................... 52
Current Principals.............................. 53


viii
Current Assistant Principals.................... 57
Current Nonadministrators ...................... 57
Total Current Supply............................ 58
Summary of Current Supply ...................... 59
Projected Demand.................................. 60
Principal Positions ............................ 60
Changes in Principal Positions.................. 60
1992-93 Principal Demand........................ 64
Variations in Projected Demand.................. 64
Summary of Projected Demand .................... 71
Projected Supply.................................. 71
Number of Principals............................ 73
Number of Assistant Principals.................. 74
Number of Nonadministrators .................... 76
Total Principals, Assistant Principals,
and Nonadministrators ........................ 81
Adjustments to the Formula...................... 82
1992-93 Principal Supply.......................... 86
Variations in Projected Supply.................... 87
Summary of Projected Supply ...................... 89
Chapter Summary .................................. 90
V. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS .... 92
Summary of Methodology............................ 92
Findings.......................................... 93


IX
Conclusions...................................... 94
Discussion....................................... 94
Implications of the Findings..................... 96
The Prospective Principal ..................... 96
The Current Principal ......................... 97
The Superintendent............................. 97
The Training Institution....................... 97
Colorado Department of Education............... 98
Further Research............................... 98
REFERENCES.................................................100
APPENDIX A LETTERS, QUESTIONNAIRES, AND POSTCARDS. . 105
APPENDIX B PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS ................. 116


TABLES
TABLE
1. Distribution and Return of Questionnaires........ 34
2. Age of Elementary School Principals in Colorado. . 36
3. Tenure of Principals as Elementary Level
Administrators ..................................... 37
4. Tenure of Principals in Colorado Public Schools. . 38
5. Tenure of Principals in Present District ............. 39
6. Tenure of Principals in Present Position ............. 40
7. Principals Having a Type D Certificate
with an Elementary Endorsement ..................... 41
8. Number of Buildings Supervised by Principals ... 41
9. Principals Working with an Assistant Principal . . 42
10. Retirement Plans of Principals ....................... 43
11. Age of Elementary School Assistant Principals. . . 46
12. Tenure of Assistant Principals as Elementary
Level Administrators................................ 46
13. Tenure of Assistant Principals in Colorado
Schools............................................. 48
14. Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present
District............................................ 48
15. Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present
Position........................................... 49


xi
16. Assistant Principals Having a Type D
Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement ... 50
17. Number of Students in Buildings in Which
Assistant Principals Work........................... 51
18. Retirement Plans of Assistant Principals ............. 52
19. Certified Elementary Principals by Responding
District............................................ 55
20. Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsement,
1982-83 Through 1986-87............................. 58
21. Addition of Principal Positions, 1986-87 through
1988-89. 146 Responding Districts ................ 61
22. Deletion of Principal Positions, 1986-87 Through
1988-89. 130 Responding Districts ......... . 63
23. Projected Principal Demand Utilizing
Enrollment Projections ............................. 66
24. Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Pupils-to-
Principal Ratios of 412:1........................... 70
25. Principals Planning Retirement, by Percent .... 75
26. Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsements,
1982-83 Through 1986-87............................. 77
27. Age of Nonadministrators.............................. 80
28. Applications for Elementary Administrative
Positions Submitted by Nonadministrators,
1986-87............................................. 83
29. Nonadministrators Receiving a Regular Job
Vacancy Bulletin ................................... 84
30. State Regions to Which Nonadministrators Would
Relocate, by Region of Residence.................... 85


FIGURES
FIGURE
1. Principal Demand, 1986-87 Through 1992-93
65


CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
The population increase of school-age children in the
United States in the Fall of 1986 has been widely reported.
The 1986 projected enrollment of children in grades kindergarten
through grade eight was nearly 27 million, still far below the
29 million enrolled in 1977. By 1991, another two and one-half
million may join these children (National Center for Education
Statistics [NCES], 1985, p. 44).
Colorado's average annual population growth from 1980
to 1984 was less than 2.3 percent. It has been projected that
over the next 16 years the population growth would continue to
grow at a rate of two percent annually (Colorado Population
Estimates and Projections. 1985, p. 3). The number of school-
age children in Colorado during this time would also increase.
Keith (1984, p. 61) reported that the K-6 enrollment in the
public schools in Colorado would grow from 280,000 actual
students in 1983 to a projected enrollment of 338,000 in 1988,
an increase of 21 percent.
The net result of these additional children in our
public schools will be an increase in the number of certified
staff members required to teach them. The Colorado Department


2
of Education (CDE) has reported that over 5,000 additional
classroom teachers would be needed by the year 2000 (Neppl,
1986, p. 1). CDE also reported that approximately 15,000
teachers were in the ready reserve in 1985, more than enough to
meet the demand of the future, even if training institutions
graduated no more teachers during that period of time.
The Colorado Association of School Executives (1984),
surveying only the organization's membership, reported that, by
the year 2000, there would be a 63 percent turnover in the num-
ber of public school administrators within the state due to
retirement alone. No report was made concerning replacements
for these individuals.
In addition to the trend toward increasing enrollment,
there has been a widespread trend toward accountability in
education as the public searches for improvement in educational
programs. The eyes of our nation have been on our public
schools as they strove to improve and meet the expectations of
the public (Buffie, 1984).
Quality leadership in the nations public schools is
the deciding factor in the improvement of the educational
programs sought by the community (Passow, 1984). That leader-
ship would come in the form of principals and assistant prin-
cipals (Phi Delta Kappa, 1980).


3
With more students entering our schools, and more stress
being placed on educational quality, a study to determine the
available supply of certificated leaders was required. Such
studies have been done in some states.
A detailed study of the supply and demand of elementary
school principals is, at best, a "nebulous, elastic concept"
(Hooker, 1973, p. 1). There are many external forces that have
an effect on supply and demand. Thus, the accuracy of such a
study is limited. Yet, "forecasting is necessary and must be
done ..." (ILO Document, 1968, p. 701).
Hooker (1973, pp. 1-3) pointed out that there are three
basic sources of supply of school administrators. The first is
the certified group now holding educational administration
positions. The second is the pool of individuals who are
certified but are not yet in educational administration posi-
tions The group of trained and certified individuals who have
not yet moved into the state is the third source.
The sources of information concerning the demand for
school administrators are also three in number. The first is
the number of positions available within the state due to
additions to or deletions from the current staff requirements.
The second source is the number of administrators leaving the
profession permanently (Martin & Andes, 1979, pp. 58-59). The
number of administrators who leave the state is the third source


4
(Cantagalli, 1981, pp. 31-32). These three sources are employed
because "forecasts must rest upon an assessment of existing"
administrators (ILO Document, 1968, p. 774).
Will the supply of certificated elementary school prin-
cipals be adequate to meet the demand in 1992?
Purpose of the Study
The challenge of the 1970s and the first half of the
1980s was to reduce the size of our public school staff as the
size of the student body was decreased (NCES, 1985, p. 3).
There were excess numbers of certified teachers and administra-
tors throughout the country as well as in Colorado (CDE, 1984,
p. 28).
The coming challenge will be just the opposite. It
must be determined whether or not the increase in the enrollment
will be met by an increase in the number of certified teachers
and principals (NCES, 1985, p. 28). Studies have forecasted
the numbers of teachers available for duty in the future (Neppl,
1983). Only a few have been concerned with school principals
on a state-by-state basis. However, no detailed study of the
supply of or demand for school principals has been made in the
state of Colorado.
The purposes of this study were (a) to determine the
demand for elementary school principals over the next five years
within the state of Colorado, and (b) to determine if the supply


5
of certified individuals would be sufficient to meet that
demand.
Data Gathering
Questionnaires were mailed to district superintendents,
elementary principals, and assistant principals throughout the
state to ascertain future demand. Demand data were also
gathered from published enrollment trends and projections.
Questionnaires mailed to individuals certified but not in
administrative positions and trends in certification activities
were used to establish supply data.
Statement of the Problem
This study examined these specific research
questions:
1. What is the present supply of elementary school
principals in Colorado public schools?
2. What is the projected supply of elementary school
principals in Colorado public schools through the 1991-92 school
year?
3. What is the projected demand for elementary school
principals in Colorado public schools through the 1991-92 school
year?


6
4. How does the projected demand for elementary school
principals in Colorado public schools compare with the projected
supply?
Significance of the Study
In terms of importance, the study's findings may be of
particular interest to the Colorado Department of Education,
the body which certifies principals throughout the state
(Colorado Revised Statutes. 1983). An excess supply of prin-
cipals over the next five years might allow for some adjustments
in the training programs or strengthening of requirements for
certification. If projections indicate that the demand would
outstrip the supply, the state may wish to provide for some
type of provisional certificate.
This study may be helpful to state training institutions
as they set upcoming budgets based upon numbers of enrollees.
An oversupply of principals may enable schools of education
throughout the state to shift their resources and talent to
instructional areas where the demand for trained personnel is
greater.
Definition of Terms
For the purpose of this study, the following definitions
of terms were used:


7
Administrator: A principal or an assistant principal
as defined herein.
Principal: A person employed in a Colorado public
elementary school, consisting of any combination of grades
kindergarten through eight, excluding middle school arrange-
ments, with administrative and/or supervisory responsibilities
limited to this level.
Assistant Principal: A person employed in a Colorado
public elementary school, consisting of any combination of
grades kindergarten through eight, excluding middle school
arrangements, with administrative and/or supervisory
responsibilities limited to this level, and who works with a
principal.
Nonadministrator: A person certified as an elementary
principal in Colorado, but who is not in a principal or
assistant principal position.
Demand: The total number of principal positions at the
elementary level in Colorado at any particular time.
Supply: The total number of individuals certified as
elementary principals within Colorado at any particular time.
Ready Reserve: That pool of certified assistant prin-
cipals and nonadministrators actively seeking principalships.


8
Assumptions
This study assumed the following:
1. The enrollment projections reported herein by the
Colorado Department of Education would prove to be accurate for
the time period considered by this study.
2. The training and certification requirements in
effect now would remain appreciably unaltered for the period of
the study.
3. Current eligibility requirements for retirement
would not be altered substantially during the period of this
study.
Limitations
This study was limited to an examination of the supply
of elementary school principals through the 1991-92 school year
and a determination if that supply would be adequate to meet the
projected demand. Demand was forecast from several perspectives
concerning the future role of principals as detailed in current
literature.
Demand data were obtained from questionnaires mailed to
the state's superintendents and elementary school administrators
and from projections of pupil enrollment. Demographic data were
obtained from current position holders. In addition, actuarial


9
and retirement data were obtained from the Public Employee's
Retirement Association, questionnaires, and personal communica-
tions. Limitations applicable to postal surveys apply to the
mailed questionnaires in this study. Limitations include the
accuracy of the list of sample respondents, the response rate,
and the procurement of the respondents' interest in the subject
(Hague, 1985, p. 254).
Supply data were obtained by examining program
completion rates of the state's training institutions and
retirement plans of respondents. Certification figures were
obtained from the Colorado Department of Education to supplement
the supply data.
Cumulative comparisons of supply and demand were formu-
lated from the projections.
Organization of This Dissertation
This dissertation is divided into five chapters. The
second chapter describes the related literature and studies
similar to this one.
Chapter III describes the methodology employed in this
study, instruments used in gathering the data, and analysis
procedures.


10
Chapter IV details the current supply of Colorado
elementary principals and assistant principals. Then,
projections of both supply and demand are made. Finally, a
comparison of supply and demand is illustrated.
Chapter V presents a summary of findings, conclusions,
and recommendations.


CHAPTER II
REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
This chapter begins with a brief history of the
principalship in the public school in the United States.
Following a review of recent recommendations for the future of
the principalship, state and national trends in public school
enrollment that directly affect the supply and demand of school
principals are presented. The chapter closes with a review of
similar studies done over the past 14 years in five different
states.
History of the Principalship
The position of school principal has not always been
present in the public schools. It developed slowly in the first
half of America's history as clerical tasks related to growing
student bodies and increased staff size became more time-
consuming (Goldman, 1966, pp. 1-3). Since the principal had no
superintendent, he dealt directly with the board of education.
A principal's administration was limited to maintaining disci-
pline, monitoring equipment and facilities, keeping school
records, and performing some janitorial tasks, all of which


12
were in addition to a full teaching load (Elsbree, McNally, &
Wynn, 1967, pp. 3-5).
In Boston, in 1857, the schools' principal teachers
were given released time to visit classrooms and coach teachers.
Thus, the break from purely administrative tasks was made
(Goldman, pp. 5-6). During this early period, the position of
school principal was usually filled by promoting someone from
within the teaching staff, the qualifications being male, a
teacher of older students, the most senior faculty member,
and/or evidence of tighter classroom discipline than the other
teachers. There was neither formal training nor certification
of principals (Elsbree et al., p. 4).
Ten years later, New York City schools excused the
principal teachers from their classrooms so that supervision and
assistance could be provided for the other teachers. This
remained the central thrust of the position of the principal
for approximately 60 years until leadership training was under-
taken (Goldman, pp. 4-5). Formal training was necessary to
accommodate the administrators of schools encountering constant
increases in their enrollments and the associated discipline
problems. Movement of the curriculum to include areas of study
beyond the three R's, realignment of the students into grades,
and increased logistical problems necessitated formal training
(Elsbree et al., p. 5). Colorado Territory marched with the


13
trend. In 1862, the initial public school in Denver had its
first principal, Abner R. Brown. In his buildings were two
teachers and 140 students (Henderson et al., 1927, pp. 124-125).
The situation has since changed dramatically. In 1977,
7,150 new and 5,000 experienced principals and assistant prin-
cipals obtained elementary or secondary building administrator
positions in the nation's public schools (Metz, 1977, p. 3).
This was a very small total, considering that in the same year,
there were approximately 170,000 system-wide administrators in
United States public schools, and no shortage of qualified
school administrators existed in any region of the country (Kuh,
McCarthy, & Zent, J.983, p. 4). Only 44 percent of those
completing training obtained building administrator positions
from 1975 to 1979 (Kuh et al., p. 14), indicating that a healthy
supply obviously existed.
Colorado was in the group of states reporting a large
supply of administrators. The state's educational institutions
prepared more administrators than there were potential vacancies
(Dunn, 1977, pp. iii, 8); in 1975, over 200 trained administra-
tors, through all levels, were employed as classroom teachers.
By 1986, Colorado had 731 public elementary school principals,
many of whom supervised more than one building (Colorado Depart-
ment of Education [CDE], 1986). During that year alone,


14
Colorado certified 702 individuals at the elementary principal
level (CDE, 1987).
Future of the Principal
The principal of the elementary school of today is
usually required to maintain a program nearly identical to those
of the other elementary schools throughout the district.
However, diversification of programs to meet the needs of the
children and the community served appear to be on the horizon
(Greene, 1986, p. 4). The preparation of the principals for
such schools, who will need to bring initiative and fore-
thought to the traditional roles of the educational leader, may
differ from the training currently being instituted. Such
leadership qualities are being stressed in academies established
within and among many districts throughout the nation (Bell,
1986, p. 6).
The principal of the future may be involved in a variety
of staffing formulas that differ substantially from the present
arrangement most commonly found, that of one per building
(Jackson & Deal, 1985, p. 104). Goodlad (1984, pp. 277, 307)
suggested that districts conduct a program in which principals-
to-be prepare for the next vacancy while waiting in the wings.
In Colorado, it would thus be possible for 175 individuals cer-
tified as elementary principals to be interning at any one time,


15
thereby increasing the demand for individuals certified as
principals.
Goodlad (p. 304) further suggested that a senior
principal be placed over the other principals of all levels to
improve the continuity of the academic sequence throughout all
grades. Although he suggested that this person would possess
skills and training like those of an assistant superintendent
for instruction or curriculum, the job could possibly fall on
the shoulders of a person qualified to be an elementary prin-
cipal, thereby increasing the demand.
He also recommended that elementary schools should be
limited to 300 pupils and suggested that 225 to 250 pupils would
be even more ideal (p. 309). Implementation of his recommenda-
tion would greatly increase the demand in Colorado. In 1983,
the state had 706 elementary school principals in position
(Keith, 1984, p. 2) and a total of 284,600 pupils (Keith, 1984,
p. 61), for a mean of 403 pupils per principal.
Yet, there is a growing trend toward supervision of
more, rather than fewer, children as the public schools are
becoming day care centers during, before, and after school hours
(Hodgkinson, 1986, p. 9). The extended day may require
additional administrative positions at the elementary level,
where most of these children would be participating. It is
possible that the public schools will become community schools


16
not unlike those of Flint, Michigan, where two building adminis-
trators work in conjunction within one building to accommodate
the extended workload.
Such additional workloads are not a prospective
principal's dream, but undertaking them is often necessary
because, to get ahead in education, a teacher must either become
a principal or leave education altogether (Boyer, 1983, p. 179).
Often, the move to get ahead is made merely because the teacher
seeks salary improvement, even if the workload is excessive.
Robinson and Brown (1986, p. 58) reported that the average
principal's wage in the United States was 37 percent greater
than the average teacher's salary. Salary improvement, without
leaving the classroom, was a key recommendation by Gardner
(1983). Should significant teacher salary improvements become
a reality, the desire of teachers to become principals might
diminish, thereby resulting in a decrease in the supply of
principals.
The larger workload experienced by the principal often
discourages individuals deemed to be potential leaders. In
1986, the average principal worked 17 percent more school days
than the average teacher (Robinson & Brown, p. 60). When the
number of hours per workday are "factored in, many principals
are paid little more than teachers" (Bell, p. 6). Substantial
salary increases, without corresponding workload increases,


could produce larger supplies of trained administrators in the
future.
17
Enrollment Statistics
The number of students in public elementary schools in
America bottomed out at 26.6 million in 1985, but that number
was projected to rise to 29.4 million by 1991, an 11 percent
increase. The public secondary enrollment was expected to con-
tinue to decline until 1990 when it would reach a low of 10.9
million students (National Center for Educational Statistics
[NCES], 1985, p. 44).
The trend toward fewer students has been as true in
Colorado as it has been in the nation. The number of students
in Colorado public schools dropped from 558,000 in 1978 to
542,000 in 1983 (Keith, 1984, p. 61). However, Keith forecast
that the enrollment of the public elementary schools in Colorado
would begin a steady climb with the 1984 school year and that
enrollment in secondary schools would follow suit in 1990.
Reflecting these enrollments, Colorado's birth rate
increased 27 percent during the eleven-year period preceding
1980 (CDE, 1984, p. 10). Yet, the state's school age popula-
tion, ages 5-17, only increased by one percent of the state's
total population due to the large in-migration of nonparent
adults (Griffin, 1985, pp. 1-3). Thus, the growth of "the


18
Colorado K-12 educational system" (Griffin, p. 3) would be
limited in the future. However, Griffin (p. 5) forecast a 26
percent growth in the number of 5-17 year-olds from 1985 to
2000. Such growth will increase the future demand for certified
principals.
Concurrent with the decrease in school enrollments, the
number of public school principals and assistant principals
throughout the country dropped from 107,000 in 1974 to 96,000
by 1980, a decrease of over 11 percent (U.S. Department of Com-
merce, 1985, p. 140). Likewise, the number of certified
administrators in Colorado decreased from 2767 in 1980 to 2449
in 1982 (CDE, 1984, p. 8), a decrease of 11.5 percent.
The number of public elementary school buildings in the
nation also decreased, by 14 percent from 1970-71 to 1982-83,
thereby decreasing the number of elementary positions available.
During that time period, the number of secondary public schools
increased by four percent (NCES, 1985, p. 5).
However, the number of public school buildings in
Colorado has increased slightly during the ten-year period
following 1973. This increase was due largely to the addition
of special schools such as vocational and alternative schools
(CDE, 1984, p. 12). However, the number of elementary schools
decreased by seven between 1981 and 1985 (CDE, 1982, 1986).


19
Supply and Demand Studies
Similar studies have been conducted in five states over
a period of fourteen years. These studies were similar in many
respects, including demographic data and supply projections.
In Minnesota, Hooker (1973, pp. 9, 13) found that the
median age of the elementary administrators ranged between 41
and 45 years, with nearly 10 percent over the age of 60 and 27
percent under 26 years. The median length of tenure in the
present position was less than six years. More than three-
fourths had earned Master's Degrees, a large percentage of whom
did so at out-of-state institutions (pp. 19, 23).
Because of planned retirements and expected additions
of positions in the five-year period following the study, Hooker
(1973, p. 45) projected that nearly 130 additional elementary
administrators would be needed. However, the supply of adminis-
trators was projected to outstrip the demand.
The projected supply of administrators in West Virginia
was also larger than the projected demand. The state's training
institutions graduated approximately 160 aspiring elementary
building administrators per year from 1972 to 1978 (Martin &
Andes, 1979, p. 56), and the state certified approximately 200
elementary principals per year (pp. 52, 62). However, only 50 of
the nearly 900 elementary administrative positions in the state
were vacant yearly (pp. 2, 3, 59). The authors projected that


20
nearly 13 percent of the hirees for the 50 positions would
come from out of state (p. 62).
In 1972-73, the mean age of the 888 elementary adminis-
trators in West Virginia was 45 years, dropping to 43 years by
1977-78 (Martin & Andes, pp. 2, 11, 12). The median length of
tenure in present position was five years in 1977-78 (p. 16),
leading the researchers to state that "most public administra-
tors are place oriented" (p. 64). Like Minnesota, three-fourths
of the administrators possessed Master's Degrees with majors in
educational administration, even though such preparation was
not required by state statute (pp. 6, 21).
In Missouri, nearly 98 percent of the elementary prin-
cipals had earned Master's Degrees, most of which came from in-
state institutions (Howard, 1983, pp. 103, 105). Similar to
both Minnesota and West Virginia, 42 percent had occupied their
present position for less than six years (p. 106). Thirty per-
cent in 1981-82 were 40 to 49 years old, and 33 percent were in
the 50 to 59 age bracket (p. 102), somewhat older than in either
Minnesota or West Virginia.
Only seven percent of the schools in Missouri had
assistant principals in 1982 (Howard, p. 108). Forty-three per-
cent of these were in the 31 to 40 age range, and 32 percent
were in the 41 to 50 age bracket (p. 108), noticeably younger
than the principals. Seventy-five percent had occupied the same


21
position for more than five years, noticeably more than the
principals (p. 109).
In the five years preceding the study, the state issued
nearly 500 elementary administrative certificates per year,
although the trend was toward fewer certificates each year
(Howard, p. 111). The number of dropouts per year averaged
just 74, while the number of total positions decreased by nearly
10 percent per year from 1971-72 to slightly more than 1000
positions in 1980-81 (pp. 121, 122). While such figures were
not pleasing to the prospective administrator, the news grew
more unpleasant. In a state where retirement could make quite
a difference in the future demand, only 58 percent of the prin-
cipals stated they would retire when eligible (p. 124). Not
unlike the other states, Howard (p. 126) projected that the
trend of excessive supply would continue in Missouri.
Pennsylvania (Cantagalli, 1981, pp. 48, 50), in the
period from 1975 to 1978, certified more than 2000 elementary
administrators, 40 percent of whom came from out of state.
However, the total demand during the period of time from 1972-
73 through 1977-78 was only 600, resulting, again, in an extreme
oversupply situation (pp. 57-58).
A sizeable oversupply was also projected in Oklahoma,
with nearly 900 elementary principals in excess of the demand
predicted for 1980-81 (Seifert, 1976, pp. 72-73). The state


22
had 500 elementary administrative positions in 1975 (p. 30), of
which only eight percent were vacant each year (p. 52). During
the five-year period ending in 1975, 3700 administrative
certificates were issued in Oklahoma, 20 percent of them to
individuals who earned their degree from institutions outside
of the state (p. 63).
In Oklahoma, the mean age of elementary building
administrators was 45 years, and only six percent were under 36
years (Seifert, p. 70). Four percent were older than 60 years.
The mean length of district tenure was nearly 13 years, and
only 19 percent had been in the same district less than six
years (pp. 32, 36).
Chanter Summary
The position of public school principal developed from
a need for increased supervision of classroom teachers. This
was preceded by a period of time in which head teachers per-
formed double duty as administrators when enrollments increased.
Recent years have seen as many as 12,000 principals hired in a
single year.
Many authors have recommended alternative administrative
staffing formulas which would significantly alter the demand
and supply of administrators in the future.


23
Methods of arriving at supply figures in studies similar
to this were obtained from an evaluation of the current
population of school principals, assistant principals, and
nonadministrators. Public school enrollment figures were
employed as a basis for future demand. Additional demand
figures were obtained by examining turnover trends.
Similar studies in five states described their
principals in corresponding fashion: usually in the forties,
most likely the owner of a Master's Degree from an in-state
institution, and the current position holder for less than six
years. The predicted supply of certified administrators for
building-level positions outgrew the demand in the five states
reviewed. The trends indicated that the gap between this supply
and the projected demand would grow even wider in the years to
come.


CHAPTER III
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
The central purpose of this research was to establish a
five-year projection of the supply of and demand for elementary
school principals in the state of Colorado. This chapter
describes the design of the study and the methods through which
the study was undertaken. Included in this description are
information about participant selection, detailed explanations
of questionnaires employed to gather information from the par-
ticipants, means of gathering information from state agencies,
assumptions upon which the projections were based, and
procedures used to analyze the data assembled.
Data Collection
Two sources were tapped to obtain data for this study.
Primary data were received from responses to brief researcher-
constructed questionnaires that were mailed to administrators
and nonadministrators throughout the public schools of Colorado
State agencies supplied supplementary data.


25
Description of the Questionnaires
Questionnaires were mailed to principals, assistant
principals, superintendents, and certified individuals not
holding administrative positions. The questionnaires sought to
determine characteristics of the present supply of elementary
principals and their professional plans for the future.
Appendix A contains examples of all questionnaires and related
correspondence.
Principal. Survey instruments were mailed to 244
randomly selected elementary principals. The instruments sought
to obtain demographic data about the "typical" elementary school
principal and that principal's future professional plans which
would have an effect on future supply and demand. The two-page,
researcher-designed principal questionnaire posed questions
about age, years of experience as an elementary administrator,
tenure in present position, tenure in present district, tenure
in the state, retirement plans, professional plans, number of
schools supervised, and whether there was an assistant principal
in the building.
The first mailing of the questionnaires was in January,
1987. A second mailing to nonrespondents followed four weeks
later. Each cover letter explained the need for the principal's
input and the instructions for returning the questionnaire in
the self-addressed, stamped envelope that was enclosed.


26
A postcard was also enclosed to permit the principal to request
a copy of the study's findings and to verify return of the ques-
tionnaires .
Assistant principal. A questionnaire to be completed
by the assistant principals was enclosed with the questionnaire
sent to the principals, because names and addresses of assistant
principals were unobtainable. In addition to information nearly
identical to that requested from principals, the assistant prin-
cipal questionnaires sought the enrollment of the school in
which the assistant principal worked. Replies were used to
determine the future plans of these individuals and, in turn,
served as a basis for forecasting the demand for replacements.
Enclosed with each questionnaire were a self-addressed,
stamped envelope, a cover letter explaining the purpose of the
questionnaire, and the instructions for returning it.
Superintendent. The third researcher-generated ques-
tionnaire sought to substantiate published quantitative data on
elementary principals. This was mailed to all of the state's
superintendents in January, 1987. The brief, one-page question-
naire also sought to determine the superintendent's anticipated
requirements for elementary principals in the near future and
to verify return of the questionnaires.


27
A cover letter explained the necessity of each superin-
tendent's input. A self-addressed, stamped envelope was
included with the questionnaire to ease the return mailing. A
postcard was also included which allowed the superintendent to
request a copy of the study's findings.
Nonadministrator. The fourth questionnaire, also
designed by the researcher, was directed to the individual who
was certified but not yet in an administrative position. The
two-page questionnaire sought to determine what portion of the
supply pool was actively seeking administrative positions. In
addition, it sought to establish an accurate description of the
nonadministrator's age, certification status, employment status,
location of residence, application efforts, and willingness to
relocate.
Enclosed with every questionnaire was a self-addressed,
stamped envelope, a cover letter explaining the purpose of the
study, and the instructions for completing the questionnaire.
Limitations of mailed surveys. There are some
limitations inherent in the use of postal surveys. In this
study, accuracy of names and addresses was maximized by employ-
ing the latest edition of the COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY. The
questionnaires were intentionally brief, with multiple choice
questions, so that the time involved in completing the


28
questionnaires would be at the minimum. Self-addressed, stamped
envelopes were provided as an incentive to respond. Second
surveys were mailed to nonresponding principals four weeks after
the first mailing. No identifying markings appeared on the
questionnaires or the envelopes (Hague, 1985, pp. 248-259).
All typing, mailing, and sorting of questionnaires were
accomplished by a graduate assistant employed by the researcher.
Selection of the Participants
In January, 1987, questionnaires were mailed to every
third elementary principal listed in the 1986-87 COLORADO
EDUCATION DIRECTORY, limiting those with multiple assignments
to one questionnaire. Individuals responsible for K-12 facili-
ties and superintendents assuming leadership of elementary
schools were not considered. Questionnaires were mailed to 244
principals.
Included with each principal questionnaire was a similar
questionnaire to be completed and mailed separately by the
assistant principal, should there be one working with the
principal. The 244 responding principals reported that 33
assistant principals worked with them. (CDE did not maintain
names and addresses of assistant principals.)
In January, 1987, separate questionnaires were mailed
to all of the state's 173 school superintendents who were listed
in the 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY in one mailing.
(Two superintendent positions were vacant.)


29
Using names and addresses furnished by state training
institutions, 140 questionnaires were mailed to calendar-year-
1986 administrative interns (C. M. Kelly, personal communica-
tion, February 27, 1987; see Appendix B). The individuals were
selected systematically by employing alternate names taken from
an alphabetized list.
Related Data Sources
Information about the supply of principals was obtained
from the Colorado Department of Education (CDE). Records were
examined at CDE to determine the recent trends in certification
of elementary administrators, for both initial and renewal
certificates. An effort was made to establish a trend in the
number of out-of-state individuals who moved into the state
yearly to become elementary principals. Trends in nonrenewals
could not be ascertained.
Telephone contact was made with individuals at a train-
ing institution to obtain a projection of the number of
individuals expected to complete the program for elementary
principal certification through the 1991-92 school year.
Two state agencies were contacted to obtain data
directly relating to the demand of elementary school principals.
Data illustrating pupil enrollment trends and projections were
obtained from the Planning and Evaluation Unit of CDE. The
Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA) of Colorado was


30
visited to determine trends in retirement of elementary school
administrators and possible projections of the number of future
retirees. PERA maintained data on public school employees as a
whole, but it could not isolate the data for elementary school
administrators.
Seven school districts were contacted either by tele-
phone or in person to obtain data on recent retirement trends
and predictions that PERA could not provide.
Means of Analysis
The description of current supply preceded the
analysis of the projections of demand and supply.
Mathematical formulas vary only slightly between the current
data and the projected data. The projected supply and demand
analyses were examined separately and then jointly for compara-
tive reasons.
Supply
Supply (Hooker, 1973, pp. 1-3) was calculated by
examining the number of individuals currently in principal posi-
tions, the number of assistant principals currently in position,
the size of the nonadministrator group, and the number of
certified individuals immigrating into the state. Agarwal
(1970, p. 73) included those individuals who had withdrawn from
consideration.


31
The formula employed in this study for both current and
projected supply of principals was:
Supply = P + A + N
where: P = the number of current principals
A = the number of current assistant principals
N the number of nonadrainistrators (including
immigrants)
The number of principal positions currently occupied
was obtained from questionnaires sent to the superintendents and
corroborated with information obtained from CDE. CDE also
served as the source for information concerning the number of
nonadministrators and the number of administrator immigrants to
Colorado. Preparatory institutions in the state served as
additional sources of information of the number and availability
of nonadministrators. Principal questionnaires provided data
about the number of assistant principal positions in the state.
Demand
Hooker (1973, pp. 1-3) stated that a main source of
demand for administrators was the number of current positions
in the state. Another factor was the number of positions added
or deleted due to an adjustment in the staff requirements of
the districts (Agarwal, 1970, p. 73). The formula for the
projected demand of principals employed by this study was:


32
Demand = P + C
where: P = the number of current principals
C = the change in the number of principal
positions yearly
This formula produced the anticipated demand during the
next five years. Information concerning the number of current
principal positions occupied was obtained via questionnaires
sent to the superintendents, as was the yearly change in the
number of positions.
Assumptions
Variations in the projection of demand were described
and were based upon the following assumptions:
1. Should the principal-to-building ratio be legislated
at 1:1, what would be the demand for principals during the next
five years?
2. Should the number of elementary buildings in the
state increase at a rate of one percent per year, what would be
the demand for principals during the next five years?
3. Should Colorado legislate the pupil-to-building
ratio to levels suggested by a prominent author, what would be
the demand for principals during the next five years?


33
4. Should the state initiate a program of principal
internships at the district level, what would be the increase
in demand during the next five years?
5. Should the 1986-87 pupils-to-principal ratio remain
constant throughout the five-year period being projected, what
would be the demand for principals during the next five years?
Similarly, variations in the projection of supply were
described and were based upon the following assumptions:
1. Assuming that the completion rates of students pre-
paring to be principals vary one percent per year, what would
be the supply of principals during the next five years?
2. Assuming that the number of principals immigrating
to Colorado varies by one percent per year, what would be the
supply of principals during the next five years?
3. Assuming that the age of early retirement for state
employees is lowered two years, what would be the supply of
principals during the next five years?
Chanter Summary
Chapter III described the survey instruments employed
and what they sought to impart, the means by which participants
were selected, the state agencies contacted, and the analysis
procedures followed.


CHAPTER IV
PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA
This chapter is divided into six sections. The first
two sections contain descriptions of the current elementary
school principal and assistant principal. Then follows a por-
trayal of the present supply of elementary principals. Sections
four and five detail the projected demand and the projected
supply. Concluding the chapter is a brief summary.
Questionnaire Response
The number of questionnaires distributed and returned
after all mailings is shown in Table 1.
Table 1
Distribution and Return of Questionnaires
Respondent Respondents Instruments Percent
Group Surveyed Returned Returned
Superintendent 173 159 91.9
Principal 244 244 100.0
Asst. Principal 33 28 84.8
Nonadministrator 140 69 49.2


35
One principal returned a blank questionnaire, resulting
in 243 usable responses from the principals. An assistant
principal questionnaire was enclosed in each principal packet.
The principal was requested to forward it to the assistant
principal should one be working in the building. Thirty-three
principals indicated they had assistants.
The Elementary School Principal
Principals to whom questionnaires were mailed were
systematically selected from the 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION
DIRECTORY (CDE DIRECTORY) by choosing every third elementary
principal. Principals responsible for more than one
building were selected only once. Following the first mailing
in January, 1987, questionnaires were returned by 182 indi-
viduals, while the second mailing in February, 1987 netted 62
additional responses. This was a response rate of 100 percent;
however, the single unanswered, returned questionnaire produced
a usable response rate of 99.6 percent.
The two-page questionnaire consisted of nine multiple
choice questions and one completion question. (The question-
naire can be found in Appendix A.) Of the 243 respondents,
54 requested copies of the study's findings by returning the
self-addressed, stamped postcard enclosed with the question-
naire .


36
Age and Experience as an
Elementary Administrator
The principals were initially asked their ages and how
long they had worked as administrators at the elementary level.
Table 2 depicts the ages of the respondents.
Table 2
Age of Elementary School Principals in Colorado
Age of Respondents Number of Respondents Percent of
Under 30 years 1 0.4
From 31-35 years 19 7.8
From 36-40 years 43 17.7
From 41-45 years 52 21.4
From 46-50 years 50 20.5
Over 50 years 78 32.1
Total 243 99.9
Note. Total percent is less than 100 due to rounding off
at the 0.1 level.
The replies to the first question indicated that
the median age fell in the 46-50 range. Almost 26 percent of
the respondents were 40 years or younger. Nearly one-third of
the principals were over 50 years. Keith reported that


37
35 percent of the elementary principals were 50 years or older
in Fall, 1987 (1988, p. 9).
A summary of the replies to the question concerning
tenure of principals as elementary level administrators is shown
in Table 3. Twenty-four principals, 10 percent of the respon-
dents, had gained their first administrative position within
the past three years. Nearly half of the principals had been
elementary administrators more than 10 years.
Table 3
Tenure of Principals as Elementary Level Administrators
Tenure Number of Percent of
in Years Respondents Respondents
Less than 1 full year 10 4.1
From 1-2 years 14 5.8
From 3-4 Years 37 15.2
From 5-10 years 73 30.0
More than 10 years 109 44.9
Total 243 100.0
Tenure in Colorado Public Schools.
Present District, and Present
Position
In an attempt to ascertain the geographic mobility of
the elementary principal, the questionnaires requested that the


38
principals indicate their tenure in Colorado's public schools,
in their present districts, and in their present positions.
The principals were asked how long they had worked in
the public schools in Colorado. The results are summarized in
Table 4. (One principal did not respond to this question.)
Only 10 individuals had worked in Colorado public schools fewer
than five complete years. However, 86 percent had worked in
Colorado public schools more than 10 years.
Table 4
Tenure of Principals in Colorado Public Schools
Tenure in Years Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
Less than 1 full year 2 0.8
From 1-2 years 3 1.2
From 3-4 years 5 2.1
From 5-10 years 24 9.9
More than 10 years 208 86.0
Total 242 100.0
Whereas nearly 9 out of 10 elementary principals had
worked in Colorado public schools for longer than 10 years,
nearly 7 out of 10 had more than 10 years seniority within their
present districts. Conversely, nearly 10 percent of those


39
responding principals had moved from another district, either
from within or from outside of Colorado, within the preceding
two years. Table 5 illustrates the tenure of principals in
their present districts, regardless of position.
Table 5
Tenure of Principals in Present District
Tenure in Years Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
Less than 1 full year 6 2.5
From 1-2 years 17 7.0
From 3-4 years 16 6.6
From 5-10 years 40 16.5
More than 10 years 164 67.5
Total 243 100.1
Note. Total percent is more than 100 due to rounding off
at the 0.1 level.
Changes in position occurred more often than shifts
between districts, as evidenced by the responses summarized in
Table 6. Nearly one-fourth of the principals had been in their
present positions for more than 10 years. Thirty-seven had
moved into their present positions within the preceding year,
and 67 had done so within the past three years.


40
Table 6
Tenure of Principals in Present Position
Tenure in Years Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
Less than 1 full year 37 15.2
From 1-2 years 30 12.3
From 3-4 years 57 23.5
From 5-10 years 61 25.1
More than 10 years 58 23.9
Total 243 100.0
Certification
The questionnaire sought to determine the number of
elementary school principals who had proper certification,
namely a Type D Administrative Certificate with an Elementary
Endorsement, for the position. Table 7 shows that 18 (seven
percent) of the respondents did not possess the proper certifi-
cation. Three of these 18 possessed Type D Certificates with
Secondary Endorsements. (One principal did not respond to the
question.)


41
Table 7
Principals Having a Type D Certificate with an
Elementary Endorsement
Has an Elementary Number of Percent of
Endorsement Respondents Respondents
Yes 224 92.6
No 18 7.4
Total 242 100.0
Supervisory Responsibilities
To determine supervisory responsibilities, the question-
naire requested that the principals state how many buildings
they supervised and whether they worked with an assistant
principal. As Table 8 shows, 9 out of 10 principals were
responsible for just one building.
Table 8
Number of Buildings Supervised by Principals
Buildings Supervised Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
1 building 220 90.9
2 buildings 16 6.6
3-4 buildings 5 2.1
5 or more buildings 1 0.4
Total 242 100.0


42
In response to the question concerning the presence of
an assistant principal, over 85 percent of the principals stated
that they work alone. Thirty-three of the 242 responding prin-
cipals indicated that an assistant principal worked with them
(Table 9). (Of the 22 principals who supervised more than one
building, 5 worked with assistant principals.)
Table 9
Principals Working with an Assistant Principal
Work with an Assistant Principal Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
Yes 33 13.6
No 209 86.4
Total 242 100.0
Professional Plans for the Future
The elementary principals were asked whether retirement
was planned before the 1992-93 school year. Sixty-one individu-
als, or 26 percent of the total respondents, indicated they
were anticipating retirement. Fifteen of these potential
retirees indicated that retirement was planned before the 1989-
90 school year. One hundred seventy-two principals, nearly
three-fourths of the respondents, indicated they would not
retire before 1992-93. (Eight principals did not respond


43
to the question.) Table 10 depicts the principals' retire-
ment plans.
Table 10
Retirement Plans of Principals
Anticipated Number of Percent of
Retirement Year Respondents Respondents
1986-87 8 3.4
1987-88 7 3.0
1988-89 6 2.6
1989-90 12 5.1
1990-91 11 4.6
1991-92 17 7.2
After 1991-92 s 174 74.0
Total 235 99.9
Note. Total percent is less than 100 due to rounding off
at the 0.1 level.
Many respondents did not complete the question request-
ing their future profess ional plans other than to state retire-
ment was a possibility. The comments that : were offered
indicated that nearly every principal was comfortable in the
elementary school principalship. Only four principals cited a
desire to move into middle or secondary school administration.
Three principals expressed an interest in returning to the


44
public school classroom, while five mentioned a possible
interest in teaching at the college level. Fourteen percent of
the respondents indicated a desire to move into central office,
usually as personnel director or director of elementary educa-
tion. Only three respondents planned to leave the state. One-
fourth of the respondents repeated their earlier replies by
including retirement in their plans.
Principal Summary
In summary, the "typical" principals of Colorado's pub-
lic elementary schools were between the ages of 46 and 50 and
had been elementary-endorsed administrators at the elementary
level for five years or more. They had been in their present
principalships, supervising one building without an assistant
principal, for nearly five years; however, they had been in
their districts for more than 10 years. They were content to
remain in the elementary principalships until retirement, some
time after the 1991-92 school year.
The Elementary School Assistant Principal
As indicated earlier, an assistant principal question-
naire was enclosed with the questionnaires mailed to the 244
elementary principals. The principals were requested to forward
the assistant principal questionnaire to the assistant, should
they be working with one. Twenty-eight of the 33 assistant


45
principals designated in Table 9 returned questionnaires for a
response rate of 85 percent.
The two-page questionnaire was initially mailed in
January, 1987, with the follow-up being sent four weeks later.
It was similar to that sent to the principals and consisted of
eight multiple choice questions and one brief completion ques-
tion. A stamped, self-addressed envelope was provided, along
with a cover letter explaining the study and the questionnaire.
(The questionnaire can be found in Appendix A.)
Age and Experience as an
Elementary Administrator
The questionnaires first requested that the assistant
principals state their ages. The median age fell in the 36-40
age range. Twenty-one percent were 35 years or younger. In
addition, only 14 percent of the assistant principals were over
50 years of age. Table 11 illustrates the relative youth of
the assistant principals in Colorado.
Only one assistant principal had been an elementary
level administrator for more than 10 years (see Table 12).
Over 50 percent had been administrators of elementary schools
for just two years or less. One first-year elementary assistant
principal had been an administrator at the junior high level
for five years.


46
Table 11
Age of Elementary School Assistant Principals
Age of Number of Percent of
Respondents Respondents Respondents
Under 30 years 1 3.6
From 31-35 years 5 17.9
From 36-40 years 8 28.6
From 41-45 years 8 28.6
From 46-50 years 2 7.1
Over 50 years 4 14.3
Total 28 100.1
Note. Total percent is more than 100 due to rounding off
at the 0.1 level,
Table 12
Tenure of Assistant PrinciDals as Elementary Level
Adminis trators
Tenure Number of Percent of
Years Respondents Respondents
Less than 1 full year 10 35.7
From 1-2 years 5 17.9
From 3-4 years 6 21.4


47
Table 12 (continued
Tenure Number of Percent of
Years Respondents Respondents
From 5-10 years 6 21.4
More than 10 years 1 3.6
Total 28 100.1
Tenure in Colorado Public Schools.
Present District, and Present
Position
The questionnaire sought to determine the extent of the
geographic mobility of the assistant principals by asking their
tenure in the public schools of Colorado, in their present dis-
tricts, and in their present positions.
Table 13 shows that all of the responding assistant
principals had worked within the state's public schools for at
least three years, and that two-thirds of them had worked in
the state for more than 10 years. (One assistant principal did
not respond to the question.)
Similarly, over half of the assistant principals had
worked in their districts for more than 10 years. Three of the
first-year assistant principals were new to the employing
districts. Table 14 illustrates the tenure of the assistant
principals in their present districts, regardless of position.


48
Table 13
Tenure of Assistant Principals in Colorado Schools
Tenure Number of Percent of
in Years Respondents Respondents
Less than 1 full year 0 0.0
From 1-2 years 0 0.0
From 3-4 years 1 3.7
From 5-10 years 7 25.9
More than 10 years 19 70.4
Total 27 100.0
Table 14
Tenure of Assistant Princioals in Present District

Tenure Number of Percent of
in Years Respondents Respondents
Less than 1 year 3 10.7
From 1-2 years 2 7.1
From 3-4 years 1 3.6
From 5-10 years 7 25.0
More than 10 years 15 53.6
Total 28 100.0


49
Nearly the opposite was true of the assistant princi-
pals' longevity in their present positions. Thirteen, or nearly
half, of the 28 assistant principals responding had assumed
their positions in 1986-87. Table 15 illustrates that only
five assistant principals had been in their current positions
for more than five years.
Table 15
Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present Position
Tenure in Years Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
Less than 1 year 13 46.4
From 1-2 years 5 17.9
From 3-4 years 5 17.9
From 5-10 years 3 10.7
More than 10 years 2 7.1
Total 28 100.0
Certification and School Size
The questionnaire sought to ascertain how many assis-
tant principals were working with the proper certification,
namely a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement, and
the size of the student body in the buildings in which they
worked.


50
Table 16 shows that over 85 percent of the assistant
principals did possess the Type D Certificate with Elementary
Endorsement. One of the four assistants not possessing the
Elementary Endorsement had a Middle School Endorsement. Two
others planned to obtain Type D Certificates with Elementary
Endorsements during the 1987-88 school year.
Table 16
Assistant Principals Having a Type D Certificate with an
Elementary Endorsement
Has a Type D Number of Percent of
Certificate Respondents Respondents
Yes 24 85.7
No 4 14.3
Total 28 100.0
As Table 17 illustrates, assistant principals were
usually found in elementary schools with large enrollments.
Nearly three-fourths of the assistant principals stated that
they worked in buildings with more than 500 students. (All but
three of the schools surveyed that had more than 500 pupils
were on the Front Range.)


51
Table 17
Number of Students in Buildines in Which Assistant
Principals Work
Number of Number of Percent of
Students Respondents Respondents
Less than 300 students 0 0.0
From 301-400 students 3 10.7
From 401-500 students 5 17.9
More than 500 students 20 71.4
Total 28 100.0
Professional Plans for the Future
Only two assistant principals planned on retirement
during the span of this study, a reflection'of their relative
youth. One other respondent stated that emigration from the
state was anticipated. All three indicated 1991-92 would be
their year of departure (see Table 18). Eighty-nine percent of
the assistant principals stated they would still be working
through the 1992-93 school year.
The final question dealt with future professional plans.
Of the 27 respondents, 9 indicated they intended to obtain a
principalship for the 1987-88 school year. Seven more planned
the same action for 1988-89, and four planned for a principal-
ship in 1989-90.


52
Table 18
Retirement Plans of Assistant Principals
Anticipated Retirement Year Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
1990-91 or before 0 0.0
1991-92 3 10.7
After 1991-92 25 89.3
Total 28 100.0
Assistant Principal Summary
The movement into the principalships was a clearly-
stated goal in the near future for "typical" assistant elemen-
tary school principals. Retirement was not in the immediate
future since they were probably in their late 30's and had been
administrators at the elementary level for two full years or
less. Their short tenure as assistant principals was not
reflected by their length of stay in their districts, where
they had been employed for more than 10 years. They were
elementary endorsed and were working in large schools.
Current Supply
The current supply of elementary school principals was
defined as the aggregate of those individuals already in posi-
tion as elementary principals, the assistant principals


53
currently in position, and the nonadministrators who are
certified but not yet in elementary administrative positions.
Thus, the formula used for determining the current
supply of elementary principals was:
Supply = P + A + N
where: P = the number of current principals
A = the number of current assistant
principals
N = the number of nonadministrators
Current Principals
The number of elementary school principals currently in
position was established first by totaling the number of prin-
cipals from each of the state's school districts as reported in
the 1986-1987 CDE DIRECTORY. This process resulted in a total
of 731 individuals employed as elementary school principals in
the state in 1986-87. This finding was then verified through
questionnaires mailed to the state's school superintendents.
A brief, researcher-designed questionnaire consisting
of one multiple choice and three completion questions was mailed
(in one mailing in January, 1987) to 173 of the 175 district
superintendents in Colorado. (Two superintendent positions
were vacant at the time of mailing.) The questionnaire, an
accompanying cover letter that explained the purpose of the
study, and instructions for completing the questionnaire were


54
mailed along with a stamped, self-addressed envelope in which
the superintendent could return the questionnaire. Also
enclosed was a postcard upon which the respondent could request
results of the findings of the study. Ninety-two percent, or
159, of the 173 superintendents completed and returned ques-
tionnaires. One hundred forty-three superintendents returned
postcards requesting the study's findings.
Included among the 159 responding districts were the 16
largest districts in Colorado, each employing 11 or more princi-
pals. The 16 nonresponding districts were all districts having
10 or fewer elementary principals.
The first question on the questionnaire sought to affirm
the data published by the Colorado Department of Education (CDE)
regarding the number of elementary principals within each
school district. Responses from the superintendents indicated
that 701 elementary school principals were employed in the 159
districts. Three superintendents reported they employed no
elementary principals, but utilized head teachers or administra-
tive assistants under their supervision. In 18 other districts
either the superintendent (12) or a secondary level administra-
tor (6) assumed the elementary principalship in addition to
regular duties. Table 19 depicts the number of elementary
principals in the 159 responding districts.


55
Table 19
Certified Elementary Principals bv Responding District
Number of Certified Principals in District Number of Responding Districts Percent of Responding Districts Total Number of Certified Principals Percent of Certified Principals
0 21 13.2 0 0.0
1 76 47.8 76 10.8
2 16 10.1 32 4.6
3 9 5.7 27 3.9
4 9 5.7 36 5.1 -
5-6 5 3.1 26 3.7
7-8 3 1.9 21 3.0
9-10 4 2.5 38 5.4
11-15 2 1.3 25 3.6
16-20 6 3.8 104 14.8
21-25 3 1.9 68 9.7
26-30 2 1.3 54 7.7
More than 30 3 1.9 194 27.7
Total 159 100.2 701 100.0
Note. Total Dercent in rounding off at the column three 0.1 level. is more than 100 due to


56
Ten percent (16) of the responding superintendents
represented districts in which 11 or more elementary principals
worked. These large districts employed 445 principals, or 63
percent of the respondents. A review of the CDE DIRECTORY
indicated that all 16 districts within the state with 11 or
more principals responded to the questionnaire; 15 of these
were Front Range districts which collectively employed 61
percent of the state's principals.
Finding that 445 principals worked in the 16 large dis-
tricts meant that 256 principals (701 445 = 256) were employed
in the remaining 143 responding smaller districts. These
smaller districts employed 10 or fewer principals. The total
of 256 principals in these smaller districts indicated a mean
of 1.8 (256/143 = 1.8) principals per district.
As all of the districts having 11 or more principals
responded, the 14 nonresponding districts and the two with
superintendent vacancies fell into the category of smaller
districts; they each had 10 or fewer principals. Using the mean
number (1.8) found for the smaller districts, the 16 nonreport-
ing districts could be expected to have a total of 29 principals
(16 x 1.8 = 29). Adding 29 to the total of 701 principals
reported by the superintendents brought the state total to 730,
one less than the 731 figure obtained from the CDE DIRECTORY.


57
Current Assistant Principals
The number of current assistant principals was
obtained from questionnaires mailed to the sample of 244
principals, one-third of the principals listed in the 1986-87
CDE DIRECTORY. The principals reported working with a total of
33 assistant principals. Since one-third of the principals in
Colorado had responded, the estimated number of assistant
principals in the supply network in 1986-87 was determined to
be 99 (3 x 33 = 99).
Current Nonadministrators
The number of current nonadministrators in the state
was obtained by determining the initial certificates issued
yearly for five consecutive years, beginning in 1982-83. (An
administrator's certificate was valid for five years.) Table
20 shows the yearly totals.
CDE reported 645 in-state and 365 out-of-state Type D
Certificates with Elementary Endorsements had been issued in
the period from 1982-83 through 1986-87 (J. M. Walker, personal
communication, March 5, 1987; see Appendix B). A total of 946
certificates had been renewed in the same time frame, bringing
the five-year total of certificates issued to 1956.


58
Table 20
Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsement. 1982-83
Through 1986-87
Fiscal Year Initial In-State Certificates Out-of-State Renewed Certificates Total
1982-83 94 53 138 285
1983-84 107 60 156 323
1984-85 147 83 216 446
1985-86 164 93 241 498
1986-87 133 76 195 404
Total 645 365 946 1956
Note: Does not include additional endorsements on existing
certificates.
Total Current Supply
This study found that 730 elementary administrators
were in principal positions, and 99 were in assistant
principal positions in 1986-87 in Colorado. An additional
1127 [1956 (730 + 99) = 1127] were classified as non-
administrators, assuming that all of the principals and
assistant principals were in fact certified.
However, 18 of the 243 principals and 4 of the 28
assistant principals responding to the questionnaires stated
that they did not possess elementary endorsed certification.
When expanded to the full contingent of 730 principals and


59
99 assistant principals (three times the number of princi-
pals and assistant principals surveyed), there were 66 [(18 +
4) x 3 = 66] elementary administrators in position who did not
have Elementary Endorsed Type D Certificates. Thus, there were
actually 2022 (1956 + 66 = 2022) individuals in the current
principal supply line, 66 of whom were noncertificated princi-
pals occupying positions that would normally be reserved for
elementary certificated individuals. Subtracting 829 (the com-
bined number of elementary principals and assistant principals)
from that total (2022 829 = 1193) meant that the number of
certificated nonadministrators was actually 1193.
Therefore, the current supply formula read:
Supply = P + A + N
= 730 + 99 + 1193
= 2022
where P = the number of current principals
A = the number of current assistant principals
N = the number of nonadministrators
Summary of Current Supply
The 1986-87 supply of elementary principals was 2022,
representing the total number of individuals who were either
currently in elementary principal or assistant principal posi-
tions or were waiting in the wings for an opportunity to move
into one of those positions.


60
Projected Demand
The projected demand for elementary school principals
through the 1991-92 school year was obtained by calculating the
yearly change in the number of principals after determining the
size of the Colorado principal corps in 1986-87. The projection
was accomplished by employing the formula:
Demand = P + C
where: P = the number of current principals
C = the change in the number of principal
positions yearly
Principal Positions
In the formula, the number of current principals (730)
was obtained independently from two sources: published data
from the Colorado Department of Education (CDE) and superinten-
dent questionnaires. CDE reported that 731 principals were
employed in elementary schools in 1986-87. The number of prin-
cipals reported on the questionnaires sent to the state's school
superintendents, plus the estimated number of principals in the
16 nonresponding districts, produced a total of 730 principals.
Changes in Principal Positions
The questionnaires mailed to 173 districts throughout
Colorado also asked the superintendents to predict the number


61
of elementary principal positions that would be added to or
deleted from their respective districts between February, 1987
and June, 1989.
As Table 21 indicates, no plans for changes in the
number of elementary level administrators in the two-year period
were reported by 130 (89 percent) of the responding superinten-
dents .
Table 21
Addition of Principal Positions. 1986-87 through 1988-89,
146 Responding Districts
Positions to be Added Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
0 130 89.0
1 11 7.5
2 4 2.7
6 1 0.7
Total 146 99.9
Note. Total percent is less than 100 due to rounding off
at the 0.1 level.
Only 16 districts, representing 11 percent of the
responding school districts, had intentions of adding princi-
pal positions in the two-year period ending June, 1989.


62
(Thirteen districts did not respond to the question.) The
majority of the districts increasing the number of principal
positions planned to add just one in the time frame considered.
The sole district with plans to increase its number of princi-
palships by more than two stated that it would add six. A total
of 25 additional positions were anticipated by the 16 districts.
Exactly one-half of the 16 large districts, those having
11 or more principals, planned to add principal positions in
the two-year period. The district anticipating six new posi-
tions had a current staff of 77 elementary principals. Three
of the four superintendents predicting two additional positions
were also from large districts, while four large districts pro-
jected one new position. Thus, 16 of the 25 expected additions
were slated for large districts. All of the 16 large districts
responded to the question.
The eight smaller districts predicting growth averaged
four different principals each, meaning the anticipated addi-
tions would increase their staffs by 25 percent. Such large
growth rates aren't likely to repeat themselves in these
districts, although other small districts may find themselves
in similar positions in the final three years of the five-year
projection period. There is some question about the
probability of the other smaller districts experiencing this
growth on a yearly basis.


63
Only three districts anticipated decreasing the number
of principals through 1988-89 (see Table 22). These were three
smaller districts, each of which employed fewer than 10 princi-
pals. Again, there could be some question as to whether the
smaller districts, as a group, would continue to decrease in
size at this rate over the entire five-year period.
Table 22
Deletion of Principal Positions. 1986-87 Through 1988-89.
130 Responding Districts
Positions to be Deleted Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
0 127 97.7
1 1 0.8
2 2 1.5
Total 130 100.0
The changes expected by the 159 responding superinten-
dents produced a probable net increase of 20 principals
(25 >5 = 20). Thus, 750 principals were anticipated to be
in position at the conclusion of the 1988-89 school year
(730 + 20 = 750).
In actual fact, the 1987-1988 CDE DIRECTORY reported
the number of principals increased to 739 in 1987-88. Eleven


64
districts added 14 principals. Nine of these were Front Range
districts, including five of the eight large districts antici-
pating growth. One of these added four principals. The other
two districts were located in the Southwest Region of the state.
Six positions were eliminated in five districts. Two of these
were large Front Range districts, although neither foresaw that
action on the questionnaire. The other three districts
reporting decreased principalships were located in the
Northwest, the Southwest, and the Southeast regions of the
state.
1992-93 Principal Demand
Figure 1 illustrates the anticipated demand for elemen-
tary principals when incorporating the formula for demand,
Demand = P + C, and the data supplied by the superintendents'
questionnaires. The projected demand for principals, when
incorporating the superintendents' expectations of 1.4 percent
annual growth from 1986-87 through 1988-89, jumped to 794 by
1992-93, an average increase of nearly 11 principals per year.
Variations in Projected Demand
An alternate projection of elementary principal demand
was obtained by examining trends and projections in pupil
enrollment and trends in principal employment. Table 23
illustrates the yearly increases average 1.7 percent.


Principal Demand
65
840
820
800
780
760
740
720
700
680
* * 4C * * K
fN. 00 on O iH CO
00 1 00 00 O'! Ov ON ON
1 VO 1 I 00 1 O 1 rH 1 CN
00 00 00 00 ON ON ON
on CTV on a\ on ON ON
t-H rH H H rH rH rH
School Year
Figure 1. Principal Demand, 1986-87 Through 1992-93.
Note. # indicates projection.


66
Table 23
Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Enrollment Projections
School Year K-6 Enrollment Percent Change Elementary Principals Percent Change
1984-85 287,353 + 2.6 703 - 0.5
1985-86 291,059 + 1.3 709 + 0.9
1986-87 300,831 + 3.4 730 + 2.9
1987-88 307,791 + 2.3 739 + 1.2
1988-89 317,161* + 3.0 757* + 2.4
1989-90 324,355* + 2.3 771* + 1.8
1990-91 332,063* + 2.4 785* + 1.8
1991-92 337,847* + 1.7 795* + 1.1
Note. indicates projection.
The projection was based upon CDE-supplied trends in
enrollment and principal positions (Keith, 1987, p. 9; CDE,
1984-85, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1987-88), the superintendents'
report of 730 current principals, and enrollment that was
expected to increase from 300,831 in 1986-87 to 337,847 in
1991-92 (Hennes et al., 1987; Keith, 1987). The number of
principals needed in 1991-92 would be 795, 12 more than the
projection of 783 that was based on the superintendents'
predictions.


67
Other considerations possibly affecting the demand for
1992-93 were specified in assumptions put forth by the
researcher in the initial study design:
1. Should the principal-to-building ratio be legis-
lated at 1:1, what would be the demand for principals during
the next five years?
2. Should the number of elementary buildings in the
state increase at a rate of one percent per year, what would be
the demand for principals during the next five years?
3. Should Colorado legislate the ratio of pupils-
to-building at levels suggested by a prominent author, what
would be the change in demand for principals during the next
five years?
4. Should the state initiate a program of principal
internships at the district level, what would be the increase
in demand during the next five years?
5. Should the 1986-87 pupils-to-principal ratio
remain constant throughout the five-year period being projec-
ted, what would be the demand for principals during the next
five years?
Principal-to-building ratio of 1:1. The surveys
returned by the district superintendents indicated that the 730
elementary principals were employed in a total of 778 elementary
buildings. At least 21 buildings were supervised by secondary


68
administrators, administrative assistants, head teachers, or
superintendents. The remaining 27 shared their principals with
other buildings. An immediate increase in demand for 48 new
elementary principals (21 + 27 = 48) would be experienced should
each elementary school be led by an elementary principal. The
projected demand for principals would be 846 at the conclusion
of the five-year period when incorporating the superintendents'
anticipated growth rate of 1.4 percent per year.
Building growth of one percent per year. Assuming that
the 1986-87 total of 730 buildings supervised by elementary
principals increased at a rate of one percent per year, the
total number of elementary schools in 1992-93 would be 775,
19 principals less than the superintendent-based projection of
794. This assumed the status of the 48 buildings without
full-time, elementary certificated principals remained constant
throughout the period.
Suggested nupils-to-building ratios. The pupils-to-
building ratio in Colorado elementary schools in 1986-87 was
387:1 (300,831 pupils/778 buildings = 387). However, Goodlad
(1984) stated that the appropriate size of an elementary school
was fewer than 300 pupils. He further claimed that the ideal
size would be 250 pupils.


69
Should the 300-pupil elementary school prevail
throughout Colorado in 1986-87, the demand for facilities would
swell to 1031 in the following year, a 33 percent increase from
the current situation. It would grow to 1126 by 1991-92, nearly
350 more buildings than the 778 reported by CDE in 1986-87. The
1991-92 school year would see nearly a doubling in the demand
for buildings should the ratio of 250 pupils per building be
initiated. The corresponding increase in demand for elementary
principals, should the principal-to-building ratio be maintained
at 1:1, would be 1238 in 1987-88. The rapid growth would
continue to 1991-92, when it would require a total of 1351
principals. (The 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY indicated
that Colorado had 268 elementary schools with more than 300
students, 101 of them having more than 400 students.)
Internships. Should the assumption that the state
encourage, and of course the 175 school districts comply with,
the proposal that one ongoing elementary principal internship
be established within each district in 1986-87, the demand for
principals would immediately jump 24 percent from 730 to 905.
Including the 1.4 percent growth predictions reported by the
state's superintendents, the 1987-88 demand would climb to 918.
The projection, based upon the actual number of principals and
districts in 1986-87, would be 984 in 1992-93.


70
Constant pupil-to-principal ratio. The pupils-to
principal ratio was 412:1 in 1986-87 (300,831 pupils/730
principals = 412). Should this ratio remain constant for the
five years being considered in this study, the demand for
principals would differ from the projections that were based
upon the superintendent questionnaires. Table 24 illustrates
the demand for principals in 1991-92 would be 820 if the 412:1
pupils-to-principal ratio was maintained. This would result in
a demand of 37 more principals than the 783 predicted by the
superintendents.
Table 24
Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Puoils-to-Principal
Ratio of 412:1
School Year Student Enrollment Pupils-to- Principals Principal Demand
1986-87 300,831 412:1 730
1987-88 307,791 412:1 747
1988-89 317,161* 412:1* 770*
1989-90 324,355* 412:1* 787*
1990-91 332,063* 412:1* 806*
1991-92 337,847* 412:1* 820*
Note. * indicates projection.


71
Summary of Projected Demand
Survey instruments returned by the state's superinten-
dents supported the published data concerning the number of
principals employed in the state in 1986-87. Projections based
on the assumption that the number of principal positions would
continue to increase at a 1.4 percent yearly rate from 1986-87
through 1991-92 created a demand for 794 principals in five
years.
One alternate and five projections based upon researcher
assumptions for principal demand were described. The results
produced 1991-92 demand projections varying from 767 principals
to nearly 1351 principals, in contrast to the projection of 783
principals that was based upon the surveys supplied by superin-
tendents .
Projected Supply
The projected supply of elementary school principals in
Colorado was obtained by totaling the yearly changes in the
number of principals, assistant principals, and nonadministra-
tors. The projection in supply was accomplished by employing
this formula:
Supply = P + A + N


72
where: P = the number of principals
A = the number of assistant principals
N = the number of nonadministrators
The effective utilization of this simple formula relied
upon six assumptions:
1. That all upcoming vacant positions would be filled
by candidates possessing Type D Certificates with Elementary
Endorsements.
2. That the pattern of additions and deletions of
principal positions predicted by the superintendents would
continue.
3. That the number of initial Elementary Endorsed
Type D Certificates issued yearly would continue at the same
rate.
4. That all individuals possessing Type D Certifi-
cates with Elementary Endorsements would be considered
potential candidates for any vacant principal position.
5. That the principals, assistant principals, and non-
administrators anticipating retirement would actually vacate
the profession as stated.
6. That the principals who retired via Colorado's one-
time, early retirement option of 1987 were among those who
planned for retirement before 1992-93.


73
Number of Principals
As indicated earlier in this chapter, the total number
of elementary school principals in Colorado school districts in
1986-87 was 730.
Projected principals. The superintendents were also
asked to predict the number of principal positions to be added
or deleted in the two succeeding years. The superintendents
anticipated employing 20 more principals in the succeeding two
school years, bringing the total to 750. This 1.4 percent
yearly increase extended through the 1991-92 school year,
produced a projected total of 794 principals.
Principal retirement. Data in principals' returned
questionnaires indicated that retirement would have a sizeable
effect upon the supply of principals in 1992-93. Sixty-one
individuals, or 26 percent of the responding principals,
indicated that retirement was planned before the 1992-93
school year. Because the returned questionnaires represented
exactly one-third of the state's principals, 183 principals
could be expected to leave the ranks via retirement during the
five-year projection period (61 x 3 = 183). Thus, only 547 of
the principals in position in 1986-87 would still be employed
as principals in 1992-93 (730 183 = 547). These 547, plus
the 64 anticipated additions derived from superintendent


74
questionnaires, projected a principal corps of 611 as the
1992-93 school year commenced. Table 25 illustrates the number
of principals anticipating retirement.
Number of Assistant Principals
The number of assistant principals was determined from
the principals' questionnaires. The 100 percent response rate
in January and February, 1987 indicated 33 principals had
assistants. Thirty-three assistant principals working with
one-third of the 730 principals in Colorado meant that 99 assis-
tant principals worked for the state's total contingent of
principals in 1986-87 (33 x 3 = 99).
Projected assistant principals. The 159 responding
superintendents predicted in January, 1987 that a net increase
of nine assistant principal positions would be added within the
two succeeding years. This amounted to yearly increases of
five positions in each of the two years when expanded to all
175 districts. Five assistant principal additions per year for
the time frame considered by this study meant that in 1992-93,
there would be 30 more assistant principals, or a total of 129,
in position.
Assistant principal retirement. Assistant principals
surveyed in January and February, 1987 indicated that retirement
was not a factor affecting their immediate futures. Only three


Table 25
Principals Planning Retirement, by Percent
Age of Principal 1986-87 1987-88 Year Retirement Planned 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 Total
46-50 years 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0
Over 50 years 3.4 3.0 2.2 5.1 3.8 5.5 23.0
Total respondents 8 7 6 12 11 17 61
Percent of principals 3.4 3.0 2.6 5.1 4.7 7.2 26.0
-j
Ln


76
of the 28 respondents, or 11 percent, claimed that retirement
was imminent during the upcoming five years. Eleven percent of
the total assistant principal population of 99 meant that 11
assistants would be retiring before the 1992-93 school year
(11% of 99 = 11). Thus, as 1992-93 begins, only 118 of the
129 assistant principals expected to be employed would actually
work as assistant principals, assuming that they were not
appointed to vacant principalships.
Number of Nonadministrators
The number of nonadministrators in the state was
obtained by determining the number of initial certificates
issued yearly for five years prior to 1986-87. (An administra-
tor's certificate was valid for five years.) Table 26 shows
the yearly totals and means for each category.
CDE reported a yearly average of 129 in-state-trained
individuals were issued Type D Certificates with Elementary
Endorsements throughout the five years from 1982-83 through
1986-87. When coupled with the number of initial out-of-state
(365) and renewed (946) certificates, the total number of
elementary endorsed certificates in effect in 1986-87 was 1956
(Pease, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988). This figure included active
principals and assistant principals.


77
Table 26
Tvoe D Certificates with Elementarv Endorsements. 1982 -83
Through 1986-87
Fiscal Year Initial In-State Certificates Out-of-State Renewed Certificates Total
1982-83 94 53 138 285
1983-84 107 60 156 323
1984-85 147 83 216 446
1985-86 164 93 241 498
1986-87 133 76 195 404
Mean 129 73 189 391
Total 645 365 946 1956
Note. Does not include additional endorsements on existing
certificates.
Projected nonadministrators. The total number of
certificates issued by CDE from 1982-83 through 1986-87, was
1956. Recent trends in applications for administrative pro-
grams indicated the yearly number of certificates issued would
continue (R. W. Meyers, personal communication, October 7, 1988;
see Appendix B). Thus, the projected number of certificated
individuals at the conclusion of the 1991-92 school year was
expected to be 1956, of whom 1227 would be classified as
nonadministrators (1956 certificated 611 principals 118
assistant principals = 1227).


78
However, responses to the questionnaires indicated
22 elementary administrators (18 principals and 4 assistant
principals) weren't properly certified. This meant that 66 of
the 1986-87 elementary administrators (22 x 3, since the
questionnaires represented one-third of the population)
occupied positions that would normally be reserved for
elementary-endorsed individuals. Assuming that the identical
percentages of noncertified principals and assistant principals
retired as projected for the certified administrators, 14 non-
certified principals (26% of 54 = 14) and one noncertified
assistant principals (11% of 12 = 1) would retire. Thus, the
total number of nonadministrators projected would actually be
1278, 51 more than the 1227 derived from CDE sources ([66 -
(14 + 1)] + 1227 = 1278).
Nonadministrator retirement. Retirement data for the
nonadministrators were obtained from questionnaires mailed in
June, 1987 to 140 individuals. Participants were selected by a
random sampling of every other name on an alphabetized list of
calendar year-1986 administrative interns (C. M. Kelly, personal
communication, February 27, 1987; see Appendix B). (The
administrative intern-ship was the final step in the preparation
program leading to certification as an administrator.) Sixty-
nine people responded, for a response rate of 49 percent.


79
The questionnaire was included in a package that con-
tained a cover letter explaining the reasons for the study, the
procedures for completing the questionnaire, and a self-
addressed, stamped envelope for returning the completed ques-
tionnaire. Thirteen multiple choice questions and three very
brief completion questions were arranged on the two-page
questionnaire. The questionnaire and the cover letter are
located in Appendix A.
The questionnaire initially sought to determine if the
respondents were actually in administrative positions.
Seventeen individuals, 25 percent of the 69 respondents, stated
that they were currently employed as administrators at some
level, not necessarily elementary. They returned incomplete
questionnaires as the directions specified.
Fifteen other respondents replied that they were
actually certified or about to become certified as secondary
administrators. This response allowed for the proper sorting
that could not be performed by the training institutions. They
also returned incomplete questionnaires.
Nineteen respondents completed only the first question,
stating that they were not administrators and did not possess a
Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement that enabled
them to assume the position of an elementary level administra-
tor. Seventeen of these stated that they did have firm


80
i
i
intentions of obtaining their certificates and, thus, could be
considered members of the supply pool only upon certification.
Eighteen respondents completed the entire questionnaire,
indicating they had obtained their certification, but were still
without administrative positions. All 18 nonadministrators
were currently employed in Colorado public schools in some
capacity other than administration. They totaled 26 percent of
the 69 respondents; a corresponding percentage of the popula-
tion of 280 internees meant that 73 individuals were new
nonadministrators (26% of 280 = 73).
Two-thirds of the 18 responding nonadministrators were
40 years of age or younger. Exactly 50 percent were between
the ages of 36 and 40 (see Table 27). Only one individual was
over the age of 50. All were included in the supply total
since retirement was not likely in the immediate future.
Table 27
Aee of Nonadministrators
Age of Nonadminis trators Number of Respondents Percent of Respondents
Under 31 years 0 0.0
From 31-35 years 3 16.7
From 36-40 years 9 50.0
From 41-45 years 4 22.2
i


81
Table 27 (continued)
Age of Number of Percent of
Nonadministrators Respondents Respondents
From 46-50 years 1 5.6
Over 50 years 1 5.6
Total 18 100.1
Note. Total percent is more than 100 due to rounding off
at the 0.1 level.
Thus, the number of projected nonadministrators for
1992-93, when accounting for possible retirements, remained
1278, the figure based upon CDE certification trends.
Total Principals. Assistant Principals.
Nonadministrators
The formula for projected supply for the 1992-93
school year read:
Supply = P + A + N
- 611 + 118 + 1278
= 2007
where: P = the number of principals
A the number of assistant principals
N = the number of nonadministrators
The supply of elementary school principals was projected to be
2007 in 1992-93, with nearly two-thirds of that total not
occupying administrative positions.


82
Adjustments to the Forinula
There was some question as to whether all of the 1278
nonadministrators were truly in the ready reserve. This study
assumed that in order to be a member of the ready reserve pool,
the individual was either an assistant principal or a non-
administrator actively pursuing the position of elementary
principal.
The majority of the responding assistant principals
stated that their only professional plans for the future were
to move into the principal's chair. This, plus the fact that
they were already administrators, implied that they were
actively pursuing their goal, and thus, were considered to be
members of the ready reserve in this study.
However, the questionnaires returned by the 18 non-
administrators indicated the efforts to obtain principal posi-
tions were largely passive, as evidenced by three identifying
factors. Only half submitted applications in 1986-87. A large
percentage failed to take advantage of mechanisms designed to
assist them secure administrative positions. A larger number
would not consider a change of home residence in order to
obtain a principalship. When regarded alone, each factor
greatly reduced the size of the ready reserve.
Applications. In 1986-87, only 53 percent of the 17
responding nonadministrators applied for elementary


administrative positions (see Table 28). On this basis
alone, barely half of the nonadministrators were considered to
be truly in the ready reserve.
83
Table 28
bv Nonadministrators. 1986-87
Year of Applications Number of Percent of
Application Submitted Respondents Respondents
1986-87 0 8 47.1
1 4 23.5
2 3 17.6
3 2 11.8
Yearly Total 17 100.0
Using the number of applications as an indication of
genuine intent to secure a principal position, 677 (53% of
1278 = 677) nonadministrators in 1992-93 could be placed in the
ready reserve. A total of 601 were deemed to have withdrawn
from consideration (1278 677 = 601).
Vacancy bulletins received. Job vacancy bulletins
announcing administrative openings in the state serve as a
mechanism to assist those desiring principal positions. Table
29 shows that only one-third of the nonadministrators


84
subscribed to such a service. Twelve individuals indicated
that no job vacancy bulletin was received.
Table 29
Nonadministrators Receiving a Regular Job Vacancy Bulletin
Receive Number of Percent of
Bulletin Respondents Respondents
Yes 6 33.3
No 12 66.7
Total 18 100.0
The figure of 67 percent not receiving bulletins, when
considered by itself, means 856 of the 1992-93 projected non-
administrator population of 1278 were not in the ready reserve
(67% of 1278 = 856) Only 422 could be considered to be in the
hunt for administrative positions (1278 856 = 422).
Geographic mobility. Evidence of place orientation is
illustrated in Table 30, which shows that only 2 of the 18 non-
administrators responding to the questionnaire would consider
relocating to obtain a principal position. (Only two had moved
within the preceding, five years; both moves were within the
Front Range, and both were made by individuals who were reluc-
tant to move again.):


Table 30
State Regions to Which Nonadministrators Would Relocate, by Region of Residence
Region of Residence Region to Northwest Which Relocation Would be Acceptable Northeast Southwest Southeast Front Range No Move Total
Northwest 1 1
Northeast 2 2
Southwest 1* 1* 2 2
Southeast 1 1
Front Range 1 10 11
Note. indicates the same person.


86
Two out of 18 respondents indicating a willingness to
relocate meant that, merely 11 percent, or 141, of the non-
administrators could be considered genuine members of the ready
reserve (11% of 1278 = 141). And, 1137 nonadministrators would
be labeled as having withdrawn from consideration as potential
principals (1278 141 = 1137) should this factor be regarded by
itself. (Returned questionnaires revealed all applications
made by nonadministrators in 1986-87 were made to regions in
which the respondents resided.)
Ranee of withdrawal. A considerable number of respon-
dents could be labeled as noncandidates for elementary adminis-
trative positions because they failed to apply for adminis-
trative positions (601), did not utilize mechanisms that would
assist them in the job hunt (856), or declined to relocate
(1137). The exact number of nonadministrators withdrawing from
consideration would be within the range revealed by the replies
of the responding nonadministrators, from a low of 601 to a
high of 1137.
1992-93 Principal Supply
The projected supply of elementary school principals,
developed by summing the anticipated number of principals (611),
assistant principals (118), and nonadministrators (1278),
totaled 2007. When nonadministrators deemed to have withdrawn
I


I
87
from the ready reserve were subtracted from this total, a range
of from 870 (2007 1137 = 870) to 1406 (2007 601 = 1406) was
projected for the 1992-93 principal supply. The projected
supply was considered adequate to meet the projected demand of
794 principals.
Variations in Projected Supply
Three additional assumptions were considered that could
possibly affect the 1992-93 supply:
1. Assuming that the completion rates of students
preparing to be principals vary one percent per year, what would
be the supply of principals during the next five years?
2. Assuming that the number of principals immigrating
to Colorado varies by one percent per year, what would be the
supply of principals during the next five years?
3. Assuming that the age of early retirement for state
employees is lowered two years, what would be the supply of
principals during the next five years?
Completion rates of preparing students. CDE reported
that Colorado's training institutions turned out 645 non-
administrators between 1982-83 and 1986-87, a yearly mean of
129 potential elementary principals (Pease, 1984, 1985, 1987,
1988). Should this rate of completion vary by plus or minus
one percent throughout the five-year projection period, the


Full Text

PAGE 1

THE SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR PUBLIC \ ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PRINCIPALS IN COLORADO: A FIVE-YEAR PROJECTION by JAMES TIMOTHY HEYDT A.B., University of Michigan, 1968 M.A ... University of Michigan, 1969 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Education School of Education 1989

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Copyright 1989 James Timothy Heydt All rights reserved.

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This thesis for the Doctor of Education degree by James Timothy Heydt has been approved for the School of Education by Date II-;z, ae

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Heydt, James Timothy (Ed.D., Education) The Supply of and Demand for Public Elementary School Principals in Colorado: A Five-Year Projection Thesis directed by Professor Russell W. Meyers This study projected the demand for public elementary school principals in the state of Colorado over a five-year period, concluding with the 1991-92 school year, and determined whether the projected supply of certificated candidates was sufficient to meet that demand. Researcher-designed questionnaires were mailed to 244 randomly selected principals, 33 assistant principals, and 170 individuals certified as principals but not in principal positions. Return rates of 99.6 percent, 85 percent, and 49 percent, respectively, were obtained. Returned questionnaires provided data regarding the age; tenure in Colorado, present district, and present position; certification; job responsibilities; retirement; and professional plans. Another questionnaire was mailed to 173 superintendents to substantiate the published data concerning the number of principals in the state and to determine the superintendents' expectations to add or delete principal positions within their districts. A return rate of 92 percent was obtained. Data provided by the Colorado Department of Education were used to determine trends in the number of elementary

PAGE 5

iv endorsed administrative certificates issued yearly, and student enrollment trends and projections. These data were employed to project the supply and demand. The study projected that 794 elementary principals would be employed for the 1992-93 school year and that the supply of certified individuals would far exceed that demand. However, unwillingness to relocate and minimum effort to obtain a position outside the immediate geographical area may lower the available supply considerably. The form and content of this abstract are approved. I recommend its publication. Signed

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project passed from thought to completion through the assistance of many kind, understanding people. I particularly want to thank Russell W. Meyers for his patient, guiding hand. Thanks also go to Cheryl Hermann, Richard Gordon, and Carol M. Kelly for their valued assistance in compiling data. I am especially grateful to Linda Haley for her thoughtful editorial advice. Thank you Mom and Dad for 42 years of constant encouragement. And to Marla, Jeff, and Mark, I love you for being with me throughout. v

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CONTENTS CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION. Purpose of the Study. Data Gathering .... Statement of the Problem. Significance of the Study Definition of Terms Assumptions Limitations Organization of This Dissertation II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE .... History of the Principalship. Future of the Principal Enrollment Statistics Supply and Demand Studies Chapter Summary III. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY Data Collection . . . Description of the Questionnaires Selection of the Participants Related Data Sources ..... l 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 ll ll 14 17 19 22 24 24 25 28 29

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vii Means of Analysis 30 Supply. 30 Demand. 31 Assumptions 32 Chapter Summary 33 IV. PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA 34 Questionnaire Response. 34 The Elementary School Principal 35 Age and Experience as an Elementary Adminstrator. . . .... 36 Tenure in Colorado Public Schools, Present District, and Present Position. 37 Certification . 40 Supervisory Responsibilities. 41 Professional Plans for the Future 42 Principal Summary 44 The Elementary School Assistant Principal 44 Age and Experience as an Elementary Administrator . . . . 45 Tenure in Colorado Public Schools, Present District, and Present Position 47 Certification and School Size 49 Professional Plans for the Future 51 Assistant Principal Summary 52 Current Supply .... 52 Current Principals. 53

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Current Assistant Principals. Current Nonadministrators Total Current Supply ... Summary of Current Supply Projected Demand ... Principal Positions Changes in Principal Positions. 1992-93 Principal Demand .... Variations in Projected Demand. Summary of Projected Demand Projected Supply .... Number of Principals. Number of Assistant Principals. Number of Nonadministrators Total Principals, Assistant Principals, and Nonadministrators . Adjustments to the Formula. 1992-93 Principal Supply ... Variations in Projected Supply. Summary of Projected Supply Chapter Summary . V. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS Summary of Methodology. Findings ....... viii 57 57 58 59 60 60 60 64 64 71 71 73 74 76 81 82 86 87 89 90 92 92 93

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Conclusions Discussion. Implications of the Findings. REFERENCES The Prospective Principal The Current Principal The Superintendent .. The Training Institution. Colorado Department of Education. Further Research. APPENDIX A -LETTERS, QUESTIONNAIRES, AND POSTCARDS. APPENDIX B PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS . . . . ix 94 94 96 96 97 97 97 98 98 100 105 116

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TABLES TABLE 1. Distribution and Return of Questionnaires. . 34 2. Age of Elementary School Principals in Colorado. 36 3. Tenure of Principals as Elementary Level Administrators . . . . 37 4. Tenure of Principals in Colorado Public Schools. 38 5. Tenure of Principals in Present District 39 6. Tenure of Principals in Present Position 40 7. Principals Having a TypeD Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement . 41 8. Number of Buildings Supervised by Principals 41 9. Principals Working with an Assistant Principal 42 10. Retirement Plans of Principals .. 11. Age of Elementary School Assistant Principals. 12. Tenure of Assistant Principals as Elementary Level Administrators . . . . . 13. 14. 15. Tenure of Assistant Principals in Colorado Schools ................ Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present District . . . . . . . . Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present Position ............... 43 46 46 48 48 49

PAGE 12

16. Assistant Principals Having a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement 50 17. Number of Students in Buildings in Which Assistant Principals Work. . 51 18. Retirement Plans of Assistant Principals 52 19. Certified Elementary Principals by Responding District . . . . . . . . 55 20. Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsement, 1982-83 Through 1986-87. . . . . . 58 21. Addition of Principal Positions, 1986-87 through 1988-89. 146 Responding Districts . . . 61 22. Deletion of Principal Positions, 1986-87 Through 1988-89. 130 Responding Districts . . 63 23. Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Enrollment Projections ..... 66 24. Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Pupils-to-Principal Ratios of 412:1. . 70 25. Principals Planning Retirement, by Percent 75 26. Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsements, 1982-83 Through 1986-87. 77 27. Age of Nonadministrators 80 28. Applications for Elementary Administrative Positions Submitted by Nonadministrators, 1986-87. . . . . . . . . 83 29. Nonadministrators Receiving a Regular Job Vacancy Bulletin . . . . . 84 30. State Regions to Which Nonadministrators Would Relocate, by Region of Residence . 85 xi

PAGE 13

xii FIGURES FIGURE 1. Principal Demand, 1986-87 Through 1992-93 . . 65

PAGE 14

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The population increase of school-age children in the United States in the Fall of 1986 has been widely reported. The 1986 projected enrollment of children in grades kindergarten through grade eight was nearly 27 million, still far below the 29 million enrolled in 1977. By 1991, another two and one-half million may join these children (National Center for Education Statistics (NCES], 1985, p. 44). Colorado's average annual population growth from 1980 to 1984 was less than 2.3 percent. It has been projected that over the next 16 years the population growth would continue to grow at a rate of two percent annually (Colorado Population Estimates and Projections, 1985, p. 3). The number of schoolage children in Colorado during this time would also increase. Keith (1984, p. 61) reported that the K-6 enrollment in the public schools in Colorado would grow from 280,000 actual students in 1983 to a projected enrollment of 338,000 in 1988, an increase of 21 percent. The net result of these additional children in our public schools will be an increase in the number of certified staff members required to teach them. The Colorado Department

PAGE 15

of Education (CDE) has reported that over 5,000 additional classroom teachers would be needed by the year 2000 (Neppl, 1986, p. 1). CDE also reported that approximately 15,000 teachers were in the ready reserve in 1985, more than enough to meet the demand of the future, even if training institutions graduated no more teachers during that period of time. The Colorado Association of School Executives (1984), surveying only the organization's membership, reported that, by the year 2000., there would be a 63 percent turnover in the number of public school administrators within the state due to retirement alone. No report was made concerning replacements for these individuals. In addition to the trend toward increasing enrollment, there has been a widespread trend toward accountability in education as the public searches for improvement in educational programs. The eyes of our nation have been on our public schools as they strove to improve and meet the expectations of the public (Buffie, 1984). Quality leadership in the nation's public schools is the deciding factor in the improvement of the educational programs sought by the community (Passow, 1984). That leadership would come in the form of principals and assistant principals (Phi Delta Kappa, 1980). 2

PAGE 16

3 With more students entering our schools, and more stress being placed on educational quality, a study to determine the available supply of certificated leaders was required. Such studies have been done in some states. A detailed study of the supply and demand of elementary school principals is, at best, a "nebulous, elastic concept" (Hooker, 1973, p. 1). There are many external forces that have an effect on supply and demand. Thus, the accuracy of such a study is limited. Yet, "forecasting is necessary and must be done ." (ILO Document, 1968, p. 701). Hooker (1973, pp. 1-3) pointed out that there are three basic sources of supply of school administrators. The first is the certified group now holding educational administration positions. The second is the pool of individuals who are certified but are not yet in educational administration positions. The group of trained and certified individuals who have not yet moved into the state is the third source. The sources of information concerning the demand for school administrators are also three in number. The first is the number of positions available within the state due to additions to or deletions from the current staff requirements. The second source is the number of administrators leaving the profession permanently (Martin & Andes, 1979, pp. 58-59). The number of administrators who leave the state is the third source

PAGE 17

4 (Cantagalli, 1981, pp. 31-32). These three sources are employed because "forecasts must rest upon an assessment of existing" administrators (ILO Document, 1968, p. 774). Will the supply of certificated elementary school principals be adequate to meet the demand in 1992? Purpose of the Study The challenge of the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s was to reduce the size of our public school staff as the size of the student body was decreased (NCES, 1985, p. 3). There were excess numbers of certified teachers and administrators throughout the country as well as in Colorado (CDE, 1984, p. 28). The coming challenge will be just the opposite. It must be determined whether or not the increase in the enrollment will be met by an increase in the number of certified teachers and principals (NCES, 1985, p. 28). Studies have forecasted the numbers of teachers available for duty in the future (Neppl, 1983). Only a few have been concerned with school principals on a state-by-state basis. However, no detailed study of the supply of or demand for school principals has been made in the state of Colorado. The purposes of this study were (a) to determine the demand for elementary school principals over the next five years within the state of Colorado, and (b) to determine if the supply

PAGE 18

of certified individuals would be sufficient to meet that demand. Data Gathering Questionnaires were mailed to district superintendents, elementary principals, and assistant principals throughout the state to ascertain future demand. Demand data were also gathered from published enrollment trends and projections. Questionnaires mailed to individuals certified but not in administrative positions and trends in certification activities were used to establish supply data. Statement of the Problem This study examined these specific research questions: 1. What is the present supply of elementary school principals in Colorado public schools? 5 2. What is the projected supply of elementary school principals in Colorado public schools through the 1991-92 school year? 3. What is the projected demand for elementary school principals in Colorado public schools through the 1991-92 school year?

PAGE 19

6 4. How does the projected demand for elementary school principals in Colorado public schools compare with the projected supply? Significance of the Study In terms of importance, the study's findings may be of particular interest to the Colorado Department of Education, the body which certifies principals throughout the state (Colorado Revised Statutes, 1983). An excess supply of principals over the next five years might allow for some adjustments in the training programs or strengthening of requirements for certification. If projections indicate that the demand would outstrip the supply, the state may wish to provide for some type of provisional certificate. This study may be helpful to state training institutions as they set upcoming budgets based upon numbers of enrollees. An oversupply of principals may enable schools of education throughout the state to shift their resources and talent to instructional areas where the demand for trained personnel is greater. Definition of Terms For the purpose of this study, the following definitions of terms were used:

PAGE 20

Administrator: A principal or an assistant principal as defined herein. Principal: A person employed in a Colorado public elementary school, consisting of any combination of grades kindergarten through eight, excluding middle school arrangements, with administrative and/or supervisory responsibilities limited to this level. Assistant Principal: A person employed in a Colorado public elementary school, consisting of any combination of grades kindergarten through eight, excluding middle school arrangements, with administrative and/or supervisory responsibilities limited to this level, and who works with a principal. Nonadministrator: A person certified as an elementary principal in Colorado, but who is not in a principal or assistant principal position. Demand: The total number of principal positions at the elementary level in Colorado at any particular time. Supply: The total number of individuals certified as elementary principals within Colorado at any particular time. Ready Reserve: That pool of certified assistant principals and nonadministrators actively seeking principalships. 7

PAGE 21

Assumptions This study assumed the following: 1. The enrollment projections reported herein by the Colorado Department of Education would prove to be accurate for the time period considered by this study. 2. The training and certification requirements in effect now would remain appreciably unaltered for the period of the study. 3. Current eligibility requirements for retirement would not be altered substantially during the period of this study. Limitations 8 This study was limited to an examination of the supply of elementary school principals through the 1991-92 school year and a determination if that supply would be adequate to meet the projected demand. Demand was forecast from several perspectives concerning the future role of principals as detailed in current literature. Demand data were obtained from questionnaires mailed to the state's superintendents and elementary school administrators and from projections of pupil enrollment. Demographic data were obtained from current position holders. In addition, actuarial

PAGE 22

and retirement data were obtained from the Public Employee's Retirement Association, questionnaires, and personal communications. Limitations applicable to postal surveys apply to the mailed questionnaires in this study. Limitations include the accuracy of the list of sample respondents, the response rate, and the procurement of the respondents' interest in the subject (Hague, 1985, p. 254). 9 Supply data were obtained by examining program completion rates of the state's training institutions and retirement plans of respondents. Certification figures were obtained from the Colorado Department of Education to supplement the supply data. Cumulative comparisons of supply and demand were formulated from the projections. Organization of This Dissertation This dissertation is divided into five chapters. The second chapter describes the related literature and studies similar to this one. Chapter III describes the methodology employed in this study, instruments used in gathering the data, and analysis procedures.

PAGE 23

Chapter IV details the current supply of Colorado elementary principals and assistant principals. Then, projections of both supply and demand are made. Finally, a comparison of supply and demand is illustrated. Chapter V presents a summary of findings, conclusions, and recommendations. 10

PAGE 24

CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE This chapter begins with a brief history of the principalship in the public school in the United States. Following a review of recent recommendations for the future of the principalship, state and national trends in public school enrollment that directly affect the supply and demand of school principals are presented. The chapter closes with a review of similar studies done over the past 14 years in five different states. History of the Principalship The position of school principal has not always been present in the public schools. It developed slowly in the first half of America's history as clerical tasks related to student bodies and increased staff size became more timeconsuming (Goldman, 1966, pp. 1-3). Since the principal had no superintendent, he dealt directly with the board of education. A principal's administration was limited to maintaining discipline, monitoring equipment and facilities, keeping school records, and performing some janitorial tasks, all of which

PAGE 25

were in addition to a full teaching load (Elsbree, McNally, & Wynn, 1967, pp. 3-5). 12 In Boston, in 1857, the schools' principal teachers were given released time to visit classrooms and coach teachers. Thus, the break from purely administrative tasks was made (Goldman, pp. 5-6). During this early period, the position of school principal was usually filled by promoting someone from within the teaching staff, the qualifications being male, a teacher of older students, the most senior faculty member, and/or evidence of tighter classroom discipline than the other teachers. There was neither formal training nor certification of principals (Elsbree et al., p. 4). Ten years later, New York City schools excused the principal teachers from their classrooms so that supervision and assistance could be provided for the other teachers. This remained the central thrust of the position of the principal for approximately 60 years until leadership training was undertaken (Goldman, pp. 4-5). Formal training was necessary to accommodate the administrators of schools encountering constant increases in their enrollments and the associated discipline problems. Movement of the curriculum to include areas of study beyond the three R's, realignment of the students into grades, and increased logistical problems necessitated formal training (Elsbree et al., p. 5). Colorado Territory marched with the

PAGE 26

13 trend. In 1862, the initial public school in Denver had its first principal, Abner R. Brown. In his buildings were two teachers and 140 students (Henderson et al., 1927, pp. 124-125). The situation has since changed dramatically. In 1977, 7,150 new and 5,000 experienced principals and assistant principals obtained elementary or secondary building administrator positions in the nation's public schools (Metz, 1977, p. 3). This was a very small total, considering that in the same year, there were approximately 170,000 system-wide administrators in United States public schools, and no shortage of qualified school administrators existed in any region of the country (Kuh, McCarthy, & Zent, p. 4). Only 44 percent of those completing training obtained building administrator positions from 1975 to 1979 (Kuh et al., p. 14), indicating that a healthy supply obviously existed. Colorado was in the group of states reporting a large supply of administrators. The state's educational institutions prepared more administrators than there were potential vacancies (Dunn, 1977, pp. iii, 8); in 1975, over 200 trained administrators, through all levels, were employed as classroom teachers. By 1986, Colorado had 731 public elementary school principals, many of whom supervised more than one building (Colorado Department of Education [CDE], 1986). During that year alone,

PAGE 27

Colorado certified 702 individuals at the elementary principal level (CDE, 1987). Future of the Principal 14 The principal of the elementary school of today is usually required to maintain a program nearly identical to those of the other elementary schools throughout the district. However, diversification of programs to meet the needs of the children and the community served appear to be on. the horizon (Greene, 1986, p. 4). The preparation of the principals for such schools, who will need to bring initiative and forethought to the traditional roles of the educational leader, may differ from the training currently being instituted. Such leadership qualities are being stressed in academies established within and among many districts throughout the nation (Bell, 1986, p. 6). The principal of the future may be involved in a variety of staffing formulas that differ substantially from the present arrangement most commonly found, that of one per building (Jackson & Deal, 1985, p. 104). Goodlad (1984, pp. 277, 307) suggested that districts conduct a program in which principals-. to-be prepare for the next vacancy while waiting in the wings. In Colorado, it would thus be possible for 175 individuals certified as elementary principals to be interning at any one time,

PAGE 28

thereby increasing the demand for individuals certified as principals. Goodlad (p. 304) further suggested that a senior principal be placed over the other principals of all levels to improve the continuity of the academic sequence throughout all grades. Although he suggested that this person would possess skills and training like those of an assistant superintendent for instruction or curriculum, the job could possibly fall on the shoulders of a person qualified to be an elementary principal, thereby increasing the demand. 15 He also recommended that elementary schools should be limited to 300 pupils and suggested that 225 to 250 pupils would be even more ideal (p. 309). Implementation of his r'ecornmendation would greatly increase the demand in Colorado. In 1983, the state had 706 elementary school principals in position (Keith, 1984, p. 2) and a total of 284,600 pupils (Keith, 1984, p. 61), for a mean of 403 pupils per principal. Yet, there is a growing trend toward supervision of more, rather than fewer, children as the public schools are becoming day care centers during, before, and after school hours (Hodgkinson, 1986, p. 9). The extended day may require additional administrative positions at the elementary level, where most of these children would be participating. It is possible that the public schools will become community schools

PAGE 29

16 not unlike those of Flint, Michigan, where two building administrators work in conjunction within one building to accommodate the extended workload. Such additional workloads are not a prospective principal's dream, but undertaking them is often necessary because, to get ahead in education, a teacher must either become a principal or leave education altogether (Boyer, 1983, p. 179). Often, the move to get ahead is made merely because the teacher seeks salary improvement, even if the workload is excessive. Robinson and Brown (1986, p. 58) reported that the average principal's wage in the United States was 37 percent greater than the average teacher's salary. Salary improvement, without leaving the classroom, was a key recommendation by Gardner (1983). Should significant teacher salary improvements become a reality, the desire of teachers to become principals might diminish, thereby resulting in a decrease in the supply of principals. The larger workload experienced by the principal often discourages individuals deemed to be potential leaders. In 1986, the average principal worked 17 percent more school days than the average teacher (Robinson & Brown, p. 60). When the number of hours per workday are "factored in, many principals are paid little more than teachers" (Bell, p. 6). Substantial salary increases, without corresponding workload increases,

PAGE 30

could produce larger supplies of trained administrators in the future. Enrollment Statistics 17 The number of students in public elementary schools in America bottomed out at 26.6 million in 1985, but that number was projected to rise to 29.4 million by 1991, an 11 percent increase. The public secondary enrollment was expected to continue to decline until 1990 when it would reach a low of 10.9 million students (National Center for Educational Statistics [NCES], 1985, p. 44). The trend toward fewer students has been as true in Colorado as it has been in the nation. The number of students in Colorado public schools dropped from 558,000 in 1978 to 542,000 in 1983 (Keith, 1984, p. 61). However, Keith forecast that the enrollment of the public elementary schools in Colorado would begin a steady climb with the 1984 school year and that enrollment in secondary schools would follow suit in 1990. Reflecting these enrollments, Colorado's birth rate increased 27 percent during the eleven-year period preceding 1980 (CDE, 1984, p. 10). Yet, the state's school age population, ages 5-17, only increased by one percent of the state's total population due to the large in-migration of nonparent adults (Griffin, 1985, pp. 1-3). Thus, the growth of "the

PAGE 31

18 Colorado K-12 educational system" (Griffin, p. 3) would be limited in the future. However, Griffin (p. 5) forecast a 26 percent growth in the number of 5-17 year-olds from 1985 to 2000. Such growth will increase the future demand for certified principals. Concurrent with the decrease in school enrollments, the number of public school principals and assistant principals throughout the country dropped from 107,000 in 1974 to 96,000 by 1980, a decrease of over 11 percent (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1985, p. 140). Likewise, the number of certified administrators in Colorado decreased from 2767 in 1980 to 2449 in 1982 (CDE, 1984, p. 8), a decrease of 11.5 percent. The number of public elementary school buildings in the nation also decreased, by 14 percent from 1970-71 to 1982-83, thereby decreasing the number of elementary positions available. During that time period, the number of secondary public schools increased by four percent (NCES, 1985, p. 5). However, the number of public school buildings in Colorado has increased slightly during the ten-year period following 1973. :This increase was due largely to the addition of special schools such as vocational and alternative schools (CDE, 1984, p. 12). However, the number of elementary schools decreased by seven between 1981 and 1985 (CDE, 1982, 1986).

PAGE 32

19 Supply and Demand Studies Similar studies have been conducted in five states over a period of fourteen years. These studies were similar in many respects, including demographic data and supply projections. In Minnesota, Hooker (1973, pp. 9, 13) found that the median age of the elementary administrators ranged between 41 and 45 years, with nearly 10 percent over the age of 60 and 27 percent under 26 years. The median length of tenure in the present position was less than six years. More than threefourths had earned Master's Degrees, a large percentage of whom did so at out-of-state institutions (pp. 19, 23). Because of planned retirements and expected additions of positions in the five-year period following the study, Hooker (1973, p. 45) projected that nearly 130 additional elementary administrators would be needed. However, the supply of administrators was projected to outstrip the demand. The projected supply of administrators in West Virginia was also larger than the projected demand. The state's training institutions graduated approximately 160 aspiring elementary building administrators per year from 1972 to 1978 (Martin & Andes, 1979, p. 56), and the state certified approximately 200 elementary principals per year (pp. 52, 62). However, only 50 of the nearly 900 elementary administrative positions in the state were vacant yearly (pp. 2, 3, 59). The authors projected that

PAGE 33

nearly 13 percent of the hirees for the 50 positions would come from out of state (p. 62). 20 In 1972-73, the mean age of the 888 elementary administrators in West Virginia was 45 years, dropping to 43 years by 1977-78 (Martin & Andes, pp. 2, 11, 12). The median length of tenure in present position was five years in 1977-78 (p. 16), leading the researchers to state that "most public administrators are place oriented" (p. 64). Like Minnesota, three-fourths of the administrators possessed Master's Degrees with majors in educational administration, even though such preparation was not required by state statute (pp. 6, 21). In Missouri, nearly 98 percent of the elementary principals had earned Master's Degrees, most of which came from instate institutions (Howard, 1983, pp. 103, 105). Similar to both Minnesota and West Virginia, 42 percent had occupied their present position for less than six years (p. 106). Thirty percent in 1981-82 were 40 to 49 years old, and 33 percent were in the 50 to 59 age bracket (p. 102), somewhat older than in either Minnesota or West Virginia. Only seven percent of the schools in Missouri had assistant principals in 1982 (Howard, p. 108). Forty-three percent of these were in the 31 to 40 age range, and 32 percent were in the 41 to SO age bracket (p. 108), noticeably younger than the principals. Seventy-five percent had occupied the same

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position for more than five years, noticeably more than the principals (p. 109). 21 In the five years preceding the study, the state issued nearly 500 elementary administrative certificates per year, although the trend was toward fewer certificates each year (Howard, p. 111). The number of dropouts per year averaged just 74, while the number of total positions decreased by nearly 10 percent per year from 1971-72 to slightly more than 1000 positions in 1980-81 (pp. 121, 122). While such figures were not pleasing to the prospective administrator, the news grew more unpleasant. In a state where retirement could make quite a difference in the future demand, only 58 percent of the principals stated they would retire when eligible (p. 124). Not unlike the other states, Howard (p. 126) projected that the trend of excessive supply would continue in Missouri. Pennsylvania (Cantagalli, 1981, pp. 48, 50), in the period from 1975 to 1978, certified more than 2000 elementary administrators, 40 percent of whom came from out of state. However, the total demand during the period of time from 1972-73 through 1977-78 was only 600, resulting, again, in an extreme oversupply situation (pp. 57-58). A sizeable oversupply was also projected in Oklahoma, with nearly 900 elementary principals in excess of the demand predicted for 1980-81 (Seifert, 1976, pp. 72-73). The state

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22 had 500 elementary administrative positions in 1975 (p. 30), of which only eight percent were vacant each year (p. 52). During the five-year period ending in 1975, 3700 administrative certificates were issued in Oklahoma, 20 percent of them to individuals who earned their degree from institutions outside of the state (p. 63). In Oklahoma, the mean age of elementary building administrators was 45 years, and only six percent were under 36 years (Seifert, p. 70). Four percent were older than 60 years. The mean length of district tenure was nearly 13 years, and only 19 percent had been in the same district less than six years (pp. 32, 36). Chapter Summary The position of public school principal developed from a need for increased supervision of classroom teachers. This was preceded by a period of time in which head teachers performed double duty as administrators when enrollments increased. Recent years have seen as many as 12,000 principals hired in a single year. Many authors have recommended alternative administrative staffing formulas which would significantly alter the demand and supply of administrators in the future.

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23 Methods of arriving at supply figures in studies similar to this were obtained from an evaluation of the current population of school principals, assistant principals, and nonadministrators. Public school enrollment figures were employed as a basis for future demand. Additional demand figures were obtained by examining turnover trends. Similar studies in five states described their principals in corresponding fashion: usually in the forties, most likely the owner of a Master's Degree from an in-state institution, and the current position holder for less than six years. The predicted supply of certified administrators for building-level positions outgrew the demand in the five states reviewed. The trends indicated that the gap between this supply and the projected demand would grow even wider in the years to come.

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CHAPTER III RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY The central purpose of this research was to establish a five-year projection of the supply of and demand for elementary school principals in the state of Colorado. This chapter describes the design of the study and the methods through which the study was undertaken. Included in this description are information about participant selection, detailed explanations of questionnaires employed to gather information from the participants, means of gathering information from state agencies, assumptions upon which the projections were based, and procedures used to analyze the data assembled. Data Collection Two sources were tapped to obtain data for this study. Primary data were received from responses to brief researcherconstructed questionnaires that were mailed to administrators and nonadministrators throughout the public schools of Colorado. State agencies supplied supplementary data.

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25 Description of the Questionnaires Questionnaires were mailed to principals, assistant principals, superintendents, and certified individuals not holding administrative positions. The questionnaires sought to determine characteristics of the present supply of elementary principals and their professional plans for the future. Appendix A contains examples of all questionnaires and related correspondence. Principal. Survey instruments were mailed to 244 randomly selected elementary principals. The instruments sought to obtain demographic data about the "typical" elementary school principal and that principal's future professional plans which would have an effect on future supply and demand. The two-page, researcher-designed principal questionnaire posed questions about age, years of experience as an elementary administrator, tenure in present position, tenure in present district, tenure in the state, retirement plans, professional plans, number of schools supervised, and whether there was an assistant principal in the building. The first mailing of the questionnaires was in January, 1987. A second mailing to nonrespondents followed four weeks later. Each cover letter explained the need for the principal's input and the instructions for returning the questionnaire in the self-addressed, stamped envelope that was enclosed.

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26 A postcard was also enclosed to permit the principal to request a copy of the study's findings and to verify return of the questionnaires. Assistant principal. A questionnaire to be completed by the assistant principals was enclosed with the questionnaire sent to the principals, because names and addresses of assistant principals were unobtainable. In addition to information nearly identical to that requested from principals, the assistant principal questionnaires sought the enrollment of the school in which the assistant principal worked. Replies were used to determine the future plans of these individuals and, in turn, served as a basis for forecasting the demand for replacements. Enclosed with each questionnaire were a self-addressed, stamped envelope, a cover letter explaining the purpose of the questionnaire, and the instructions for returning it. Superintendent. The third researcher-generated questionnaire sought to substantiate published quantitative data on elementary principals. This was mailed to all of the state's superintendents in January, 1987. The brief, one-page questionnaire also sought to determine the superintendent's anticipated requirements for elementary principals in the near future and to verify return of the questionnaires.

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27 A cover letter explained the necessity of each superintendent's input. A self-addressed, stamped envelope was included with the questionnaire to ease the return mailing. A postcard was also included which allowed the superintendent to request a copy of the study's findings. Nonadministrator. The fourth questionnaire, also designed by the researcher, was directed to the individual who was certified but not yet in an administrative position. The two-page questionnaire sought to determine what portion of the supply pool was actively seeking administrative positions. In addition, it sought to establish an accurate description of the nonadministrator's age, certification status, employment status, location of residence, application efforts, and willingness to relocate. Enclosed with every questionnaire was a self-addressed, stamped envelope, a cover letter explaining the purpose of the study, and the instructions for completing the questionnaire. Limitations of mailed surveys. There are some limitations inherent in the use of postal surveys. In this study, accuracy of names and addresses was maximized by employing the latest edition of the COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY. The questionnaires were intentionally brief, with multiple choice questions, so that the time involved in completing the

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28 questionnaires would be at the minimum. Self-addressed, stamped envelopes were provided as an incentive to respond. Second surveys were mailed to nonresponding principals four weeks after the first mailing. No identifying markings appeared on the questionnaires or the envelopes (Hague, 1985, pp. 248-259). All typing, mailing, and sorting of questionnaires were accomplished by a graduate assistant employed by the researcher. Selection of the Participants In January, 1987, questionnaires were mailed to every third elementary principal listed in the 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY, limiting those with multiple assignments to one questionnaire. Individuals responsible for K-12 facili-ties and superintendents assuming leadership of elementary schools were not considered. Questionnaires were mailed to 244 principals. Included with each principal questionnaire was a similar questionnaire to be completed and mailed separately by the assistant principal, should there be one working with the principal. The 244 responding principals reported that 33 assistant principals worked with them. (CDE did not maintain names and addresses of assistant principals.) In January, 1987, separate questionnaires were mailed to all of the state's 173 school superintendents who were listed in the 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY in one mailing. (Two superintendent positions were vacant.)

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29 Using names and addresses furnished by state training institutions, 140 questionnaires were mailed to calendar-year-1986 administrative interns (C. M. Kelly, personal communication, February 27, 1987; see Appendix B). The individuals were selected systematically by employing alternate names taken from an alphabetized list. Related Data Sources Information about the supply of principals was obtained from the Colorado Department of Education (CDE). Records were examined at CDE to determine the recent trends in certification of elementary administrators, for both initial and renewal certificates. An effort was made to establish a trend in the number of out-of-state individuals who moved into the state yearly to become elementary principals. Trends in nonrenewals could not be ascertained. Telephone contact was made with individuals at a training institution to obtain a projection of the number of individuals expected to complete the program for elementary principal certification through the 1991-92 school year. Two state agencies were contacted to obtain data directly relating to the demand of elementary school principals. Data illustrating pupil enrollment trends and projections were obtained from the Planning and Evaluation Unit of CDE. The Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA) of Colorado was

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30 visited to determine trends in retirement of elementary school administrators and possible projections of the number of future retirees. PERA maintained data on public school employees as a whole, but it could not isolate the data for elementary school administrators. Seven school districts were contacted either by telephone or in person to obtain data on recent retirement trends and predictions that PERA could not provide. Means of Analysis The description of current supply preceded the analysis of the projections of demand and supply. Mathematical formulas vary only slightly between the current data and the projected data. The projected supply and demand analyses were examined separately and then jointly for comparative reasons. Supply Supply (Hooker, 1973, pp. 1-3) was calculated by examining the number of individuals currently in principal positions, the number of assistant principals currently in position, the size of the nonadministrator group, and the number of certified individuals immigrating into the state. Agarwal (1970, p. 73) included those individuals who had withdrawn from consideration.

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31 The formula employed in this study for both current and projected supply of principals was: Supply P + A + N where: p = the number of current principals Athe number of current assistant principals N -the number of nonadministrators (including immigrants) The number of principal positions currently occupied was obtained from questionnaires sent to the superintendents and corroborated with information obtained from CDE. CDE also served as the source for information concerning the number of nonadministrators and the number of administrator immigrants to Colorado. Preparatory institutions in the state served as additional sources of information of the number and availability of nonadministrators. Principal questionnaires provided data about the number of assistant principal positions in the state. Demand Hooker (1973, pp. 1-3) stated that a main source of demand for administrators was the number of current positions in the state. Another factor was the number of positions added or deleted due to an adjustment in the staff requirements of the districts (Agarwal, 1970, p. 73). The formula for the projected demand of principals employed by this study was:

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Demand p + c where: P the number of current principals C the change in the number of principal positions yearly 32 This formula produced the anticipated demand during the next five years. Information concerning the number of current principal positions occupied was obtained via questionnaires sent to the superintendents, as was the yearly change in the number of positions. Assumptions Variations in the projection of demand were described and were based upon the following assumptions: 1. Should the principal-to-building ratio be legislated at 1:1, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years? 2. Should the number of elementary buildings in the state increase at a rate of one percent per year, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years? 3. Should Colorado legislate the pupil-to-building ratio to levels suggested by a prominent author, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years?

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4. Should the state initiate a program of principal internships at the district level, what would be the increase in demand during the next five years? 33 5. Should the 1986-87 pupils-to-principal ratio remain constant throughout the five-year period being projected, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years? Similarly, variations in the projection of supply were described and were based upon the following assumptions: 1. Assuming that the completion rates of students preparing to be principals vary one percent per year, what would be the supply of principals during the next five years? 2. Assuming that the number of principals immigrating to Colorado varies by one percent per year, what would be the supply of principals during the next five years? 3. Assuming that the age of early retirement for state employees is lowered two years, what would be the supply of principals during the next five years? Chapter Swnmary Chapter III described the survey instruments employed and what they sought to impart, the means by which participants were selected, the state agencies contacted, and the analysis procedures followed.

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CHAPTER IV PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA This chapter is divided into six sections. The first two sections contain descriptions of the current elementary school principal and assistant principal. Then follows a par-trayal of the present supply of elementary principals. Sections four and five detail the projected demand and the projected supply. Concluding the chapter is a brief summary. Questionnaire Response The number of questionnaires distributed and returned after all mailings is shown in Table 1. Table 1 Distribution and Return of Questionnaires Respondent Respondents Instruments Percent Group Surveyed Returned Returned Superintendent 173 159 91.9 Principal 244 244 100.0 Asst. Principal 33 28 84 8 Nonadministrator 140 69 49.2

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35 One principal returned a blank questionnaire, resulting in 243 usable responses from the principals. An assistant principal questionnaire was enclosed in each principal packet. The principal was requested to forward it to the assistant principal should one be working in the building. Thirty-three principals indicated they had assistants. The Elementary School Principal Principals to whom questionnaires were mailed were systematically selected from the 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY (CDE DIRECTORY) by choosing every third elementary principal. Principals responsible for more than one building were selected only once. Following the first mailing in January, 1987, questionnaires were returned by 182 individuals, while the second mailing in February, 1987 netted 62 additional responses. This was a response rate of 100 percent; however, the single unanswered, returned questionnaire produced a usable response rate of 99.6 percent. The two-page questionnaire consisted of nine multiple choice questions and one completion question. (The questionnaire can be found in Appendix A.) Of the 243 respondents, 54 requested copies of the study's findings by returning the self-addressed, stamped postcard enclosed with the questionnaire.

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Age and Experience as an Elementary Administrator The principals were initially asked their ages and how 36 long they had worked as administrators at the elementary level. Table 2 depicts the ages of the respondents. Table 2 Age of Elementary School Principals in Colorado Age of Number of Percent of Respondents Respondents Under 30 years 1 0.4 From 31-35 years 19 7.8 From 36-40 years 43 17.7 From 41-45 years 52 21.4 From 46-50 years 50 20.5 Over 50 years 78 32.1 Total 243 99.9 Note. Total percent is less than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level. The replies to the first question indicated that the median age fell in the 46-50 range. Almost 26 percent of the respondents were 40 years or younger. Nearly one-third of the principals were over 50 years. Keith reported that

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37 35 percent of the elementary principals were 50 years or older in Fall, 1987 (1988, p. 9). A summary of the replies to the question concerning tenure of principals as elementary level administrators is shown in Table 3. Twenty-four principals, 10 percent of the respon-dents, had gained their first administrative position within the past three years. Nearly half of the principals had been elementary administrators more than 10 years. Table 3 Tenure of Principals as Elementary Level Administrators Tenure Number of in Years Respondents Less than 1 full year 10 From 1-2 years 14 From 3-4 Years 37 From 5-10 years 73 More than 10 years 109 Total 243 Tenure in Colorado Public Schools. Present District. and Present Position Percent of Respondents 4.1 5.8 15.2 30.0 44.9 100.0 In an attempt to ascertain the geographic mobility of the elementary principal, the questionnaires requested that the

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38 principals indicate their tenure in Colorado's public schools, in their present districts, and in their present positions. The principals were asked how long they had worked in the public schools in Colorado. The results are summarized in Table 4. (One principal did not respond to this question.) Only 10 individuals had worked in Colorado public schools fewer than five complete years. However, 86 percent had worked in Colorado public schools more than 10 years. Table 4 Tenure of Principals in Colorado Public Schools Tenure Number of in Years Respondents Less than 1 full year 2 From 1-2 years 3 From 3-4 years 5 From 5-10 years 24 More than 10 years 208 Total 242 Percent of Respondents 0.8 1.2 2.1 9.9 86.0 100.0 Whereas nearly 9 out of 10 elementary principals had worked in Colorado public schools for longer than 10 years, nearly 7 out of 10 had more than 10 years seniority within their present districts. Conversely, nearly 10 percent of those

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responding principals had moved from another district, either from within or from outside of Colorado, within the preceding two years. Table 5 illustrates the tenure of principals in their present districts, regardless of position. Table 5 Tenure of Principals in Present District Tenure Number of Percent of in Years Respondents Respondents Less than 1 full year 6 2.5 From 1-2 years 17 7.0 From 3-4 years 16 6.6 From 5-10 years 40 16.5 More than 10 years 164 67.5 Total 243 100.1 Note. Total percent is more than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level. Changes in position occurred more often than shifts between districts, as evidenced by the summarized in 39 Table 6. Nearly one-fourth of the principals had been in their present positions for more than 10 years. Thirty-seven had moved into their present positions within the preceding year, and 67 had done so within the past three years.

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Table 6 Tenure of Principals in Present Position Tenure Number of in Years Respondents Less than 1 full year 37 From 1-2 years 30 From 3-4 years 57 From 5-10 years 61 More than 10 years 58 Total 243 Certification Percent of Respondents 15.2 12.3 23.5 25.1 23.9 100.0 The questionnaire sought to determine the number of elementary school principals who had proper certification, namely a Type D Administrative Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement, for the position. Table 7 shows that 18 (seven 40 percent) of the respondents did not possess the proper certifi-cation. Three of these 18 possessed Type D Certificates with Secondary Endorsements. (One principal did not respond to the question.)

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Table 7 Principals Having a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement Has an Elementary Endorsement Yes No Total Number of Respondents 224 18 242 Supervisory Responsibilities Percent of Respondents 92.6 7.4 100.0 41 To determine supervisory responsibilities, the question-naire requested that the principals state how many buildings they supervised and whether they worked with an assistant principal. As Table 8 shows, 9 out of 10 principals were responsible for just one building. Table 8 Number of Buildings Supervised by Principals Buildings Number of Percent of Supervised Respondents Respondents 1 building 220 90.9 2 buildings 16 6.6 3-4 buildings 5 2.1 5 or more buildings 1 0.4 Total 242 100.0

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42 In response to the question concerning the presence of an assistant principal, over 85 percent of the principals stated that they work alone. Thirty-three of the 242 responding prin-cipals indicated that an assistant principal worked with them (Table 9). (Of the 22 principals who supervised more than one building, 5 worked with assistant principals.) Table 9 Principals Working with an Assistant Principal Work with an Assistant Number of Percent of Principal Respondents Respondents Yes 33 13.6 No 209 86.4 Total 242 100.0 Professional Plans for the Future The elementary principals were asked whether retirement was planned before the 1992-93 school year. Sixty-one individu-als, or 26 percent of the total respondents, indicated they were anticipating retirement. Fifteen of these potential retirees indicated that retirement was planned before the 198990 school year. One hundred seventy-two principals, nearly three-fourths of the respondents, indicated they would not retire before 1992-93. (Eight principals did not respond

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to the question.) Table 10 depicts the principals' retire-ment plans. Table 10 Retirement Plans of Principals Anticipated Number of Percent of Retirement Year Respondents Respondents 1986-87 8 3.4 1987-88 7 3.0 1988-89 6 2.6 1989-90 12 5.1 1990-91 11 4.6 1991-92 17 7.2 After 1991-92 """ 174 74.0 Total 235 99.9 Note. Total percent is less than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level. 43 Many respondents did not complete the question request-ing their future professional plans other than to state retire-ment was a possibility. The comments that were offered indicated that nearly every principal was comfortable in the elementary school principalship. Only four principals cited a desire to move into middle or secondary school administration. Three principals expressed an interest in returning to the

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44 public school classroom, while five mentioned a possible interest in teaching at the college level. Fourteen percent of the respondents indicated a desire to move into central office, usually as personnel director or director of elementary education. Only three respondents planned to leave the state. One fourth of the respondents repeated their earlier replies by including retirement in their plans. Principal Summary In swnmary, the "typical" principals of Colorado's public elementary schools were between the ages of 46 and 50 and had been elementary-endorsed administrators at the elementary level for five years or more. They had been in their present principalships, supervising one building without an assistant principal, for nearly five years; however, they had been in their districts for more than 10 years. They were content to remain in the elementary principalships until retirement, some time after the 1991-92 school year. The Elementary School Assistant Principal As indicated earlier, an assistant principal questionnaire was enclosed with the questionnaires mailed to the 244 elementary principals. The principals were requested to forward the assistant principal questionnaire to the assistant, should they be working with one. Twenty-eight of the 33 assistant

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4S principals designated in Table 9 returned questionnaires for a response rate of 8S percent. The two-page questionnaire was initially mailed in January, 1987, with the follow-up being sent four weeks later. It was similar to that sent to the principals and consisted of eight multiple choice questions and one brief completion ques-tion. A stamped, self-addressed envelope was provided, along with a cover letter explaining the study and the questionnaire. (The questionnaire can be found in Appendix A.) Age and Experience as an Elementary Administrator The questionnaires first requested that the assistant principals state their ages. The median age fell in the 36-40 age range. Twenty-one percent were 3S years or younger. In addition, only 14 percent of the assistant principals were over SO years of age. Table 11 illustrates the relative youth of the assistant principals in Colorado. Only one assistant principal had been an elementary level administrator for more than 10 years (see Table 12). Over SO percent had been administrators of elementary schools for just two years or less. One first-year elementary assistant principal had been an administrator at the junior high level for five years.

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Table 11 Age of Elementary School Assistant Principals Age of Nwnber of Respondents Respondents Under 30 years 1 From 31-35 years 5 From 36-40 years 8 From 41-45 years 8 From 46-50 years 2 Over 50 years 4 Total 28 Percent of Respondents 3.6 17.9 28.6 28.6 7.1 14.3 100.1 Note. Total percent is more than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level. Table 12 Tenure of Assistant Principals as Elementa Level Administrators Tenure Number of Percent of Years Respondents Respondents Less than 1 full year 10 35.7 From 1-2 years 5 17.9 From 3-4 years 6 21.4 46

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Table 12 (continued Tenure Number of Years Respondents From 5-10 years 6 More than 10 years 1 Total 28 Tenure in Colorado Public Schools. Present District, and Present Position 47 Percent of Respondents 21.4 3.6 100.1 The questionnaire sought to determine the extent of the geographic mobility of the assistant principals by asking their tenure in the public schools of Colorado, in their present dis-tricts, and in their present positions. Table 13 shows that all of the responding assistant principals had worked within the state's public schools for at least three years, and that two-thirds of them had worked in the state for more than 10 years. (One assistant principal did not respond to the question.) Similarly, over half of the assistant principals had worked in their districts for more than 10 years. Three of the first-year assistant principals were new to the employing districts. Table 14 illustrates the tenure of the assistant principals in their present districts, regardless of position.

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48 Table 13 Tenure of Assistant Principals in Colorado Schools Tenure Number of Percent of in Years Respondents Respondents Less than 1 full year 0 0.0 From 1-2 years 0 0.0 From 3-4 years 1 3.7 From 5-10 years 7 25.9 More than 10 years 19 70.4 Total 27 100.0 Table 14 Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present District Tenure Number of Percent of in Years Respondents Respondents Less than 1 year 3 10.7 From 1-2 years 2 7.1 From 3-4 years 1 3.6 From 5-10 years 7 25.0 More than 10 years 15 53.6 Total 28 100.0

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49 Nearly the opposite was true of the assistant princi-pals' longevity in their present positions. Thirteen, or nearly half, of the 28 assistant principals responding had assumed their positions in 1986-87. Table 15 illustrates that only five assistant principals had been in their current positions for more than five years. Table 15 Tenure of Assistant Principals in Present Position Tenure Number of Percent of in Years Respondents Respondents Less than 1 year 13 46.4 From 1-2 years 5 17.9 From 3-4 years 5 17.9 From 5-10 years 3 10.7 More than 10 years 2 7.1 Total 28 100.0 Certification and School Size The questionnaire sought to ascertain how many assis-tant principals were working with the proper certification, namely a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement, and the size of the student body in the buildings in which they worked.

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Table 16 shows that over 85 percent of the assistant principals did possess the Type D Certificate with Elementary Endorsement. One of the four assistants not possessing the Elementary Endorsement had a Middle School Endorsement. Two others planned to obtain Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsements during the 1987-88 school year. Table 16 Assistant Principals Having a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement Has a Type D Number of Percent of Certificate Respondents Respondents Yes 24 85.7 No 4 14.3 Total 28 100.0 As Table 17 illustrates, assistant principals were usually found in elementary schools with large enrollments. Nearly three-fourths of the assistant principals stated that 50 they worked in buildings with more than 500 students. (All but three of the schools surveyed that had more than 500 pupils were on the Front Range.)

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Table 17 Number of Students in Buildings in Which Assistant Principals Work Number of Number of Percent of Students Respondents Respondents Less than 300 students 0 0.0 From 301-400 students 3 10.7 From 401-500 students 5 17.9 More than 500 students 20 71.4 Total 28 100.0 Professional Plans for the Future Only two assistant principals planned on retirement during the span of this study, a reflection'of their relative youth. One other respondent stated that emigration from the state was anticipated. All three indicated 1991-92 would be 51 their year of departure (see Table 18). Eighty-nine percent of the assistant principals stated they would still be working through the 1992-93 school year. The final question dealt with future professional plans. Of the 27 respondents, 9 indicated they intended to obtain a principalship for the 1987-88 school year. Seven more planned the same action for 1988-89, and four planned for a principal-ship in 1989-90.

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Table 18 Retirement Plans of Assistant Principals Anticipated Retirement Year 1990-91 or before 1991-92 After 1991-92 Total Assistant Principal Summary Number of Respondents 0 3 25 28 Percent of Respondents 0.0 10.7 89.3 100.0 The movement into the principalships was a clearly stated goal in the near future for "typical" assistant elemen-tary school principals. Retirement was not in the immediate 52 future since they were probably in their late 30's and had been administrators at the elementary level for two full years or less. Their short tenure as assistant principals was not reflected by their length of stay in their districts, where they had been employed for more than 10 years. They were elementary endorsed and were working in large schools. Current Supply The current supply of elementary school principals was defined as the aggregate of those individuals already in posi-tion as elementary principals, the assistant principals

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currently in position, and the nonadministrators who are certified but not yet in elementary administrative positions. Thus, the formula used for determining the current supply of elementary principals was: Supply P + A + N where: P the number of current principals A the number of current assistant principals N the number of nonadministrators Current Principals 53 The number of elementary school principals currently in position was established first by totaling the number of principals from each of the state's school districts as reported in the 1986-1987 CDE DIRECTORY. This process resulted in a total of 731 individuals employed as elementary school principals in the state in 1986-87. This finding was then verified through questionnaires mailed to the state's school superintendents. A brief, researcher-designed questionnaire consisting of one multiple choice and three completion questions was mailed (in one mailing in January, 1987) to 173 of the 175 district superintendents in Colorado. (Two superintendent positions were vacant at the time of mailing.) The questionnaire, an accompanying cover letter that explained the purpose of the study, and instructions for completing the questionnaire were

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54 mailed along with a stamped, self-addressed envelope in which the superintendent could return the questionnaire. Also enclosed was a postcard upon which the respondent could request results of the findings of the study. Ninety-two percent, or 159, of the 173 superintendents completed and returned questionnaires. One hundred forty-three superintendents returned postcards requesting the study's findings. Included among the 159 responding districts were the 16 largest districts in Colorado, each employing 11 or more principals. The 16 nonresponding districts were all districts having 10 or fewer elementary principals. The first question on the questionnaire sought to affirm the data published by the Colorado Department of Education (CDE) regarding the number of elementary principals within each school district. Responses from the superintendents indicated that 701 elementary school principals were employed in the 159 districts. Three superintendents reported they employed no elementary principals, but utilized head teachers or administrative assistants under their supervision. In 18 other districts either the superintendent (12) or a secondary level administrator (6) assumed the elementary principalship in addition to regular duties. Table 19 depicts the number of elementary principals in the 159 responding districts.

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55 Table 19 Certified ElementaiY Princi:Qals by Res:Qonding District 'Number of Certified Total Principals Number of Percent of Number of Percent of in Responding Responding Certifie-d Certified District Districts Districts Principals Principals 0 21 13.2 0 0.0 1 76 47.8 76 10.8 2 16 10.1 32 4.6 3 9 5.7 27 3.9 4 9 5.7 36 5.1 5-6 5 3.1 26 3.7 7-8 3 1.9 21 3.0 9-:10 4 2.5 38 5.4 11-15 2 1.3 25 3.6 16-20 6 3.8 104 14.8 21-25 3 1.9 68 9.7 26-30 2 1.3 54 7.7 More than 30 3 1.9 194 27.7 Total 159 100.2 701 100.0 Note. Total percent in column three is more than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level.

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56 Ten percent (16) of the responding superintendents represented districts in which 11 or more elementary principals worked. These large districts employed 445 principals, or 63 percent of the respondents. A review of the CDE DIRECTORY indicated that all 16 districts within the state with 11 or more principals responded to the questionnaire; 15 of these were Front Range districts which collectively employed 61 percent of the state's principals. Finding that 445 principals worked in the 16 large districts meant that 256 principals (701 445 = 256) were employed in the remaining 143 responding smaller districts. These smaller districts employed 10 or fewer principals. The total of 256 principals in these smaller districts indicated a mean of 1.8 (256/143 = 1.8) principals per district. As all of the districts having 11 or more principals responded, the 14 nonresponding districts and the two with superintendent vacancies fell into the category of smaller districts; they each had 10 or fewer principals. Using the mean number (1.8) found for the smaller districts, the 16 nonreporting districts could be expected to have a total of 29 principals (16 x 1.8 = 29). Adding 29 to the total of 701 principals reported by the superintendents brought the state total to 730, one less than the 731 figure obtained from the CDE DIRECTORY.

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57 Current Assistant Principals The number of current assistant principals was obtained from questionnaires mailed to the sample of 244 principals, one-third of the principals listed in the 1986-87 CDE DIRECTORY. The principals reported working with a total of 33 assistant principals. Since one-third of the principals in Colorado had responded, the estimated number of assistant principals in the supply network in 1986-87 was determined to be 99 (3 x 33 = 99). Current Nonadministrators The number of current nonadministrators in the state was obtained by determining the initial certificates issued yearly for five consecutive years, beginning in 1982-83. (An administrator's certificate was valid for five years.) Table 20 shows the yearly totals. CDE reported 645 in-state and 365 out-of-state Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsements had been issued in the period from 1982-83 through 1986-87 (J. M. Walker, personal communication, March 5, 1987; see Appendix B). A total of 946 certificates had been renewed in the same time frame, bringing the five-year total of certificates issued to 1956.

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Table 20 D Certificates with Elementar:: Endorsement, 1982-83 Throufl;h 1986-87 Fiscal Initial Certificates Renewed Year In-State Out-of-State Certificates Total 1982-83 94 53 138 285 1983-84 107 60 156 323 1984-85 147 83 216 446 1985-86 164 93 241 498 1986-87 133 76 195 404 Total 645 365 946 1956 Note: Does not include additional endorsements on existing certificates. Total Current Supply This study found that 730 elementary administrators were in principal positions, and 99 were in assistant principal positions in 1986-87 in Colorado. An additional 1127 [1956 (730 + 99) = 1127] were classified as non-administrators, assuming that all of the principals and assistant principals were in fact certified. However, 18 of the 243 principals and 4 of the 28 assistant principals responding to the questionnaires stated that they did not possess elementary endorsed certification. When expanded to the full contingent of 730 principals and 58

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59 99 assistant principals (three times the number of princi-pals and assistant principals surveyed), there were 66 [(18 + 4) x 3 = 66] elementary administrators in position who did not have Elementary Endorsed Type D Certificates. Thus, there were actually 2022 (1956 + 66 = 2022) individuals in the current principal supply line, 66 of whom were noncertificated principals occupying positions that would normally be reserved for elementary certificated individuals. Subtracting 829 (the combined number of elementary principals and assistant principals) from that total (2022 829 = 1193) meant that the number of certificated nonadministrators was actually 1193. Therefore, the current supply formula read: Supply P +A+ N 730 + 99 + 1193 2022 where p the number of current principals A the number of current assistant principals N the number of nonadministrators Summary of Current Supply The 1986-87 supply of elementary principals was 2022, representing the total number of individuals who were either currently in elementary principal or assistant principal positions or were waiting in the wings for an opportunity to move into one of those positions.

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60 Projected Demand The projected demand for elementary school principals through the 1991-92 school year was obtained by calculating the yearly change in the number of principals after determining the size of the Colorado principal corps in 1986-87. The projection was accomplished by employing the formula: Demand = p + c where: P the number of current principals C the change in the number of principal positions yearly Principal Positions In the formula, the number of current principals (730) was obtained independently from two sources: published data from the Colorado Department of Education (CDE) and superintendent questionnaires. CDE reported that 731 principals were employed in elementary schools in 1986-87. The number of principals reported on the questionnaires sent to the state's school superintendents, plus the estimated number of principals in the 16 nonresponding districts, produced a total of 730 principals. Changes in Principal Positions The questionnaires mailed to 173 districts throughout Colorado also asked the superintendents to predict the number

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61 of elementary principal positions that would be added to or deleted from their respective districts between February, 1987 and June, 1989. As Table 21 indicates, no plans for changes in the number of elementary level administrators in the two-year period were reported by 130 (89 percent) of the responding superinten-dents. Table 21 Addition of Principal Positions. 1986-87 through 1988-89. 146 Responding Districts Positions Number of Percent of to be Added Respondents Respondents 0 130 89.0 1 11 7.5 2 4 2.7 6 1 0.7 Total 146 99.9 Note. Total percent is less than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level. Only 16 districts, representing 11 percent of the responding school districts, had intentions of adding princi-pal positions in the two-year period ending June, 1989.

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62 (Thirteen districts did not respond to the question.) The majority of the districts increasing the number of principal positions planned to add just one in the time frame considered. The sole district with plans to increase its number of principalships by more than two stated that it would add six. A total of 25 additional positions were anticipated by the 16 districts. Exactly one-half of the 16 large districts, those having 11 or more principals, planned to add principal positions in the two-year period. The district anticipating six new positions had a current staff of 77 elementary principals. Three of the four superintendents predicting two additional positions were also from large districts, while four large districts projected one new position. Thus, 16 of the 25 expected additions were slated for large districts. All of the 16 large districts responded to the question. The eight smaller districts predicting growth averaged four different principals each, meaning the anticipated additions would increase their staffs by 25 percent. Such large growth rates aren't likely to repeat themselves in these districts, although other small districts may find themselves in similar positions in the final three years of the five-year projection period. There is some question about the probability of the other smaller districts experiencing this growth on a yearly basis.

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63 Only three districts anticipated decreasing the number of principals through 1988-89 (see Table 22). These were three smaller districts, each of which employed fewer than 10 princi-pals. Again, there could be some question as to whether the smaller districts, as a group, would continue to decrease in size at this rate over the entire five-year period. Table 22 Deletion of Principal Positions. 1986-87 Through 1988-89. 130 Responding Districts Positions to be Deleted 0 1 2 Total Number of Respondents 127 1 2 130 Percent of Respondents 97.7 0.8 1.5 100.0 The changes expected by the 159 responding superinten-dents produced a probable net increase of 20 principals (25 = 20). Thus, 750 principals were anticipated to be in position at the conclusion of the 1988-89 school year (730 + 20 = 750). In actual fact, the 1987-1988 CDE DIRECTORY reported the number of principals increased to 739 in 1987-88. Eleven

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64 districts added 14 principals. Nine of these were Front Range districts, including five of the eight large districts anticipating growth. One of these added four principals. The other two districts were located in the Southwest Region of the state. Six positions were eliminated in five districts. Two of these were large Front Range districts, although neither foresaw that action on the questionnaire. The other three districts reporting decreased principalships were located in the Northwest, the Southwest, and the Southeast regions of the state. 1992-93 Principal Demand Figure 1 illustrates the anticipated demand for elementary principals when incorporating the formula for demand, Demand = P + C, and the data supplied by the superintendents' questionnaires. The projected demand for principals, when incorporating the superintendents' expectations of 1.4 percent annual growth from 1986-87 through 1988-89, jumped to 794 by 1992-93, an average increase of nearly 11 principals per year. Variations in Projected Demand An alternate projection of elementary principal demand was obtained by examining trends and projections in pupil enrollment and trends in principal employment. Table 23 illustrates the yearly increases average 1.7 percent.

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65 840 820 800 "8 780 Cll Q .-I 760 Cll '" CJ = 740 '" 1-1 p., 720 700 680 iC iC iC iC iC iC ....... co 0'\ 0 .-I N (\"') co co co 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ I I I ch I I I \0 ...... co 0 .-I N co co co co 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ 0'\ .-I .-I r-1 r-1 .-I r-1 .-I School Year Figure 1. Principal Demand, 1986-87 Through 1992-93. Note. # indicates projection.

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Table 23 Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Enrollment Projections School Year 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 K-6 Enrollment 287,353 291,059 300,831 307,791 317,161* 324,355* 332,063* 337,847* Percent Change + 2.6 + 1.3 + 3.4 + 2.3 + 3.0 + 2.3 + 2.4 + 1. 7 Note. indicates projection. Elementary Principals 703 709 730 739 757* 771* 785* 795* Percent Change 0.5 + 0.9 + 2.9 + 1.2 + 2.4 + 1.8 + 1.8 + 1.1 The projection was based upon CDE-supplied trends in enrollment and principal positions (Keith, 1987, p. 9; CDE, 1984-85, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1987-88), the superintendents' report of 730 current principals, and enrollment that was expected to increase from 300,831 in 1986-87 to 337,847 in 1991-92 (Hennes et al., 1987; Keith, 1987). The number of principals needed in 1991-92 would be 795, 12 more than the projection of 783 that was based on the superintendents' predictions. 66

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Other considerations possibly affecting the demand for 1992-93 were specified in assumptions put forth by the researcher in the initial study design: 1. Should the principal-to-building ratio be legislated at 1:1, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years? 67 2. Should the number of elementary buildings in the state increase at a rate of one percent per year, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years? 3. Should Colorado legislate the ratio of pupilsto-building at levels suggested by a prominent author, what would be the change in demand for principals during the next five years? 4. Should the state initiate a program of principal internships at the district level, what would be the increase in demand during the next five years? 5. Should the 1986-87 pupils-to-principal ratio remain constant throughout the five-year period being projected, what would be the demand for principals during the next five years? Principal-to-building ratio of 1:1. The surveys returned by the district superintendents indicated that the 730 elementary principals employed in a total of 778 elementary buildings. At least 21 buildings were supervised by secondary

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68 administrators, administrative assistants, head teachers, or superintendents. The remaining 27 shared their principals with other buildings. An immediate increase in demand for 48 new elementary principals (21 + 27 48) would be experienced should each elementary school be led by an elementary principal. The projected demand for principals would be 846 at the conclusion of the five-year period when incorporating the superintendents' anticipated growth rate of 1.4 percent per year. Building growth of one percent per year. Assuming that the 1986-87 total of 730 buildings supervised by elementary principals increased at a rate of one percent per year, the total number of elementary schools in 1992-93 would be 775, 19 principals less than the superintendent-based projection of 794. This assumed the status of the 48 buildings without full-time, elementary certificated principals remained constant throughout the period. Suggested pupils-to-building ratios. The pupils-tobuilding ratio in Colorado elementary schools in 1986-87 was 387:1 (300,831 pupils/778 buildings= 387). However, Goodlad (1984) stated that the appropriate size of an elementary school was fewer than 300 pupils. He further claimed that the ideal size would be 250 pupils.

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69 Should the 300-pupil elementary school prevail throughout Colorado in 1986-87, the demand for facilities would swell to 1031 in the following year, a 33 percent increase from the current situation. It would grow to 1126 by 1991-92, nearly 350 more buildings than the 778 reported by CDE in 1986-87. The 1991-92 school year would see nearly a doubling in the demand for buildings should the ratio of 250 pupils per building be initiated. The corresponding increase in demand for elementary principals, should the principal-to-building ratio be maintained at 1:1, would be 1238 in 1987-88. The rapid growth would continue to 1991-92, when it would require a total of 1351 principals. (The 1986-87 COLORADO EDUCATION DIRECTORY indicated that Colorado had 268 elementary schools with more than 300 students, 101 of them having more than 400 students.) Internships. Should the assumption that the state encourage, and of course the 175 school districts comply with, the proposal that one ongoing elementary principal internship be established within each district in 1986-87, the demand for principals would immediately jump 24 percent from 730 to 905. Including the 1.4 percent growth predictions reported by the state's superintendents, the 1987-88 demand would climb to 918. The projection, based upon the actual number of principals and districts in 1986-87, would be 984 in 1992-93.

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70 Constant pupil-to-principal ratio. The pupils-to principal ratio was 412:1 in 1986-87 (300,831 pupils/730 principals= 412). Should this ratio remain constant for the five years being considered in this study, the demand for principals would differ from the projections that were based upon the superintendent questionnaires. Table 24 illustrates the demand for principals in 1991-92 would be 820 if the 412:1 pupils-to-principal ratio was maintained. This would result in a demand of 37 more principals than the 783 predicted by the superintendents. Table 24 Projected Principal Demand Utilizing Pupils-to-Principal Ratio of 412:1 School Student Pupils-to Principal Year Enrollment Principals Demand 1986-87 300,831 412:1 730 1987-88 307,791 412:1 747 1988-89 317,161* 412:1* 770* 1989-90 324,355* 412:1* 787* 1990-91 332,063* 412:1* 806* 1991-92 337,847* 412:1* 820* Note. indicates projection.

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71 Summary of Projected Demand Survey instruments returned by the state's superintendents supported the published data concerning the number of principals employed in the state in 1986-87. Projections based on the assumption that the number of principal positions would continue to increase at a 1.4 percent yearly rate from 1986-87 through 1991-92 created a demand for 794 principals in five years. One alternate and five projections based upon researcher assumptions for principal demand were described. The results produced 1991-92 demand projections varying from 767 principals to nearly 1351 principals, in contrast to the projection of 783 principals that was based upon the surveys supplied by superintendents. Projected Supply The projected supply of elementary school principals in Colorado was obtained by totaling the yearly changes in the number of principals, assistant principals, and nonadministrators. The projection in supply was accomplished by employing this formula: Supply =P+A+N

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where: P the number of principals A the number of assistant principals N the number of nonadministrators 72 The effective utilization of this simple formula relied upon six assumptions: 1. That all upcoming vacant positions would be filled by candidates possessing Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsements. 2. That the pattern of additions and deletions of principal positions predicted by the superintendents would continue. 3. That the number of initial Elementary Endorsed Type D Certificates issued yearly would continue at the same rate. 4. That all individuals possessing Type D Certifi cates with Elementary Endorsements would be considered potential candidates for any vacant principal position. 5. That the principals, assistant principals, and nonadministrators anticipating retirement would actually vacate the profession as stated. 6. That the principals who retired via Colorado's onetime, early retirement option of 1987 were among those who planned for retirement before 1992-93.

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73 Number of Principals As indicated earlier in this chapter, the total number of elementary school principals in Colorado school districts in 1986-87 was 730. Projected principals. The superintendents were also asked to predict the number of principal positions to be added or deleted in the two succeeding years. The superintendents anticipated employing 20 more principals in the succeeding two school years, bringing the total to 750. This 1.4 percent yearly increase extended through the 1991-92 school year, produced a projected total of 794 principals. Principal retirement. Data in principals' returned questionnaires indicated that retirement would have a sizeable effect upon the supply of principals in 1992-93. Sixty-one individuals, or 26 percent of the responding principals, indicated that retirement was planned before the 1992-93 school year. Because the returned questionnaires represented exactly one-third of the state's principals, 183 principals could be expected to leave the ranks via retirement during the five-year projection period (61 x 3 = 183). Thus, only 547 of the principals in position in 1986-87 would still be employed as principals in 1992-93 (730183 = 547). These 547, plus the 64 anticipated additions derived from superintendent

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74 questionnaires, projected a principal corps of 611 as the 1992-93 school year commenced. Table 25 illustrates the number of principals anticipating retirement. Number of Assistant Principals The number of assistant principals was determined from the principals' questionnaires. The 100 percent response rate in January and February, 1987 indicated 33 principals had assistants. Thirty-three assistant principals working with one-third of the 730 principals in Colorado meant that 99 assistant principals worked for the state's total contingent of principals in 1986-87 (33 x 3 = 99). Projected assistant principals. The 159 responding superintendents predicted in January, 1987 that a net increase of nine assistant principal positions would be added within the two succeeding years. This amounted to yearly increases of five positions in each of the two years when expanded to all 175 districts. Five assistant principal additions per year for the time frame considered by this study meant that in 1992-93, there would be 30 more assistant principals, or a total of 129, in position. Assistant principal retirement. Assistant principals surveyed in January and February, 1987 indicated that retirement was not a factor affecting their immediate futures. Only three

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Table 25 PrinciEals Planning Retirement2 Percent Age of Year Retirement Planned Principal 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 46-50 years 0.4 Over 50 years 3.4 3.0 2.2 5.1 Total respondents 8 7 6 12 Percent of principals 3.4 3.0 2.6 5.1 1990-91 1991-92 0.9 1.7 3.8 5.5 11 17 4.7 7.2 Total 3.0 23.0 61 26.0 ...... VI

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76 of the 28 respondents, or 11 percent, claimed that retirement was imminent during the upcoming five years. Eleven percent of the total assistant principal population of 99 meant that 11 assistants would be retiring before the 1992-93 school year (11% of 99 = 11). Thus, as 1992-93 begins, only 118 of the 129 assistant principals expected to be employed would actually work as assistant principals, assuming that they were not appointed to vacant principalships. Number of Nonadministrators The number of nonadministrators in the state was obtained by determining the number of initial certificates issued yearly for five years prior to 1986-87. (An administrator's certificate was valid for five years.) Table 26 shows the yearly totals and means for each category. CDE reported a yearly average of 129 in-state-trained individuals were issued Type D Certificates with Elementary Endorsements throughout the five years from 1982-83 through 1986-87. When coupled with the number of initial out-of-state (365) and renewed (946) certificates, the total number of elementary endorsed certificates in effect in 1986-87 was 1956 (Pease, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988). This figure included active principals and assistant principals.

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Table 26 D Certificates with ElernentarJ!: Endorsements, 1982-83 Through 1986-87 Fiscal Initial Certificates Renewed Year In-State Out-of-State Certificates Total 1982-83 94 53 138 285 1983-84 107 60 156 323 1984-85 14783 216 446 1985-86 164 93 241 498 1986-87 133 76 195 404 Mean 129 73 189 391 Total 645 365 946 1956 Note. Does not include additional endorsements on existing certificates. Projected nonadrninistrators. The total number of certificates issued by CDE from 1982-83 through 1986-87, was 1956. Recent trends in applications for administrative pro-grams indicated the yearly number of certificates issued would 77 continue (R. W. Meyers, personal communication, October 7, 1988; see Appendix B). Thus, the projected number of certificated individuals at the conclusion of the 1991-92 school year was expected to be 1956, of whom 1227 would be classified as nonadministrators (1956 certificated -611 principals -118 assistant principals= 1227).

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78 However, responses to the questionnaires indicated 22 elementary administrators (18 principals and 4 assistant principals) weren't properly certified. This meant that 66 of the 1986-87 elementary administrators (22 x 3, since the questionnaires represented one-third of the population) occupied positions that would normally be reserved for elementary-endorsed individuals. Assuming that the identical percentages of noncertified principals and assistant principals retired as projected for the certified administrators, 14 non-certified principals (26% of 54 assistant principals (11% of 12 14) and one noncertified 1) would retire. Thus, the total number of nonadministrators projected would actually be 1278, 51 more than the 1227 derived from CDE sources ([66 (14 + 1)] + 1227 = 1278). Nonadministrator retirement. Retirement data for the nonadministrators were obtained from questionnaires mailed in June, 1987 to 140 individuals. Participants were selected by a random sampling of every other name on an alphabetized list of calendar year-1986 administrative interns (C. M. Kelly, personal communication, February 27, 1987; see Appendix B). (The administrative intern-ship was the final step in the preparation program leading to certification as an administrator.) Sixty nine people responded, for a response rate of 49 percent.

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79 The questionnaire was included in a package that contained a cover letter explaining the reasons for the study, the procedures for completing the questionnaire, and a selfaddressed, stamped envelope for returning the completed ques-tionnaire. Thirteen multiple choice questions and three very brief completion questions were arranged on the two-page questionnaire. The questionnaire and the cover letter are located in Appendix A. The questionnaire initially sought to determine if the respondents were actually in administrative positions. Seventeen individuals, 25 percent of the 69 respondents, stated that they were currently employed as administrators at some level, not necessarily elementary. They returned incomplete questionnaires as the directions specified. Fifteen other respondents replied that they were actually certified or about to become certified as secondary administrators. This response allowed for the proper sorting that could not be performed by the training institutions. They also returned incomplete questionnaires. Nineteen respondents completed only the first question, stating that they were not administrators and did not possess a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement that enabled them to assume the position of an elementary level administrator. Seventeen of these stated that they did have firm

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80 intentions of their certificates and, thus, could be considered members of the supply pool only upon certification. Eighteen respondents completed the entire questionnaire, indicating they had obtained their certification, but were still without administrative positions. All 18 nonadministrators were currently employed in Colorado public schools in some capacity other thanadministration. They totaled 26 percent of the 69 respondents; .a corresponding percentage of the popula-tion of 280 internees meant that 73 individuals were new nonadministrators (26% of 280 = 73). Two-thirds of the 18 responding nonadministrators were 40 years of age or younger. Exactly 50 percent were between the ages of 36 and 40 (see Table 27). Only one individual was over the age of 50. All were included in the supply total since retirement was not likely in the immediate future. Table 27 Age of Nonadministrators Age of Nonadministrators Under 31 years From 31-35 years From 36-40 years From 41-45 years Number of Respondents 0 3 9 4 Percent of Respondents 0.0 16.7 50.0 22.2

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Table 27 (continued) Age of Number of Percent of Nonadministrators Respondents Respondents From 46-50 years 1 5.6 Over 50 years 1 5.6 Total 18 100.1 Note. Total percent is more than 100 due to rounding off at the 0.1 level. Thus, the number of projected nonadministrators for 1992-93, when accounting for possible retirements, remained 1278, the figure based upon CDE certification trends. Total Principals. Assistant Principals. Nonadrninistrators The formula for projected supply for the 1992-93 school year read: Supply P +A+ N 611 + 118 + 1278 2007 where: P the number of principals A the number of assistant principals N the of nonadministrators The supply of elementary school principals was projected to be 2007 in 1992-93, with nearly two-thirds of that total not occupying administrative positions. 81

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82 Adjustments to the There was some. question as to whether all of the 1278 nonadministrators were truly in the ready reserve. This study assumed that in order to be a member of the ready reserve pool, the individual was either an assistant principal o! a nonadministrator actively pursuing the position of elementary principal. The majority of the responding assistant principals stated that their only professional plans for the future were to move into the principal's chair. This, plus the fact that they were already administrators, implied that they were actively pursuing their goal, and thus, were considered to be members of the ready reserve in this study. However, the questionnaires returned by the 18 nonadministrators indicated the efforts to obtain principal positions were largely passive, as evidenced by three identifying factors. Only half submitted applications in 1986-87. A large percentage failed to take advantage of mechanisms designed to assist them secure administrative positions. A larger number would not consider a change of home residence in order to obtain a principalship. When regarded alone, each factor greatly reduced the size of the ready reserve. Applications. In 1986-87, only 53 percent of the 17 responding nonadministrators applied for elementary

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administrative positions (see Table 28). On this basis alone, barely half of the nonadministrators were considered to be truly in the ready reserve. Table 28 Applications for Elementary Administrative Positions Submitted by Nonadministrators. 1986-87 Year of Applications Number of Percent of Application Submitted Respondents Respondents 1986-87 0 8 47.1 1 4 23.5 2 3 17.6 3 2 11.8 Yearly Total 17 100.0 Using the number of applications as an indication of genuine intent to secure a principal position, 677 (53% of 83 1278 = 677) nonadministrators in 1992-93 could be placed in the ready reserve. A total of 601 were deemed to have withdrawn from consideration (1278-677 = 601). Vacancy bulletins received. Job vacancy bulletins announcing administrative openings in the state serve as a mechanism to assist those desiring principal positions. Table 29 shows that only one-third of the nonadministrators

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84 subscribed to such a service. Twelve individuals indicated that no job vacancybulletin was received. Table 29 Nonadministrators Receiving a Regular Job Vacancy Bulletin Receive Number of Percent of Bulletin Respondents Respondents Yes 6 33.3 No 12 66.7 Total 18 100.0 The figure of 67 percent not receiving bulletins, when considered by itself, means 856 of the 1992-93 projected non-administrator population of 1278 were not in the ready reserve (67% of 1278 = 856) ;, Only 422 could be considered to be in the hunt for administrative positions (1278-856 = 422). Geographic mobility. Evidence of place orientation is illustrated in Table 30, which shows that only 2 of the 18 non-administrators responding to the questionnaire would consider relocating to obtain a principal position. (Only two had moved within the preceding, five years; both moves were within the Front Range, and both were made by individuals who were reluc-tant to move again.):

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Table 30 State Regions to Which Nonadministrators Would Relocate, by Region of Residence Region of Residence Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast Front Range Region to Which Relocation Would be Acceptable Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast 1* Note. indicates the same person. Front Range 1* 1 No Move 1 2 2 1 10 Total 1 2 2 1 11 co V1

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86 I Two out of 18 respondents indicating a willingness to relocate meant that,merely 11 percent, or 141, of the non-administrators be considered genuine members ofthe ready reserve (11% of 1278 = 141). And, 1137 nonadministrators would be labeled as having withdrawn from consideration as potential principals (1278 141 = 1137) should this factor be regarded by itself. (Returned questionnaires revealed all applications made by nonadministrators in 1986-87 were made to regions in which the respondents resided.) Range of withdrawal. A considerable number of respon-dents could be labeled as noncandidates for elementary adminis-trative positions because they failed to apply for adminis-trative positions (601), did not utilize mechanisms that would assist them in the job hunt (856), or declined to relocate (1137). The exact number of nonadministrators withdrawing from consideration would be within the range revealed by the replies of the responding nonadministrators, from a low of 601 to a high of 113 7. 1992-93 Principal Supply The projected supply of elementary school principals, developed by summing the anticipated number of principals (611), assistant principals (118), and nonadministrators (1278), totaled 2007. When nonadministrators deemed to have withdrawn

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87 from the ready reserve were subtracted from this total, a range of from 870 (2007 1137 = 870) to 1406 (2007 601 = 1406) was projected for the 1992-93 principal supply. The projected supply was considered adequate to meet the projected demand of 794 principals. Variations in Projected Supply Three additional assumptions were considered that could possibly affect the 1992-93 supply: 1. Assuming that the completion rates of students preparing to be principals vary one percent per year, what would be the supply of principals during the next five years? 2. Assuming that the number of principals immigrating to Colorado varies by one percent per year, what would be the supply of principals during the next five years? 3. Assuming that the age of early retirement for state employees is lowered two years, what would be the supply of principals during the next five years? Completion rates of preparing students. CDE reported that Colorado's training institutions turned out 645 nonadministrators between 1982-83 and 1986-87, a yearly mean of 129 potential principals (Pease, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988). Should this rate of completion vary by plus or minus one percent throughout the five-year projection period, the

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88 number of would remain virtually unchanged from the current number of 645, as a one percent variation meant that as few as 128 or as many as 130 students would be complet ing their coursework each year. Principal immigrants. CDE reported that the number of principal immigrants averaged 73 per year (365 total immigrants) between 1982-83 through 1986-87 (J. M. Walker, personal communi cation, March 5, 1987; see Appendix B). A one percent increase or decrease in the number of immigrants would leave unchanged the number of immigrants moving to Colorado in the five years preceding 1992-93. Lowered retirement age. Should the age requirement be lowered two years to: age 58 with the identical years of experi ence (Public Employees Retirement Association, pp. S-6), 28 more principals would be eligible for retirement in the fiveyear projection period than the 183 projected by this study (Keith, 1988, p. 9). The resultant supply pool of principals would decrease by the same amount. Phone conversations or written correspondence with five individuals in Front.Range district personnel offices in the third and fourth week of September, 1988 disclosed that 13 principals retired from these five districts in the preceding two years. Seven took advantage of the one-time, early

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89 retirement option in 1987. These 13 principals were from districts employing a total of 185 principals, 25 percent of the state's 1987-88 contingent of 739. For the entire state, the two-year total would have been 52 retirements [(13/185) x 739 principals employed in 1987-88 = 52]. That was more than the 45 principals anticipating retirement [(8 + 7) x 3 (the questionnaires represented one-third of the population)] in the returned principal questionnaires (see Table 25). Further, the four districts estimated 19 more principals would retire in 1988-89 and 1989-90, bringing the state's predicted retirements to 76 for those two years [(19/185) x 739 = 76]. This figure was 22 more than the 54 probable retirements [(6 + 12) x 3 = 54] indicated by the principal questionnaires (76 54 = 22) for the same period (M. Callan, M. Crouch, L. Dirschl, D. lncitti, C. McNeill, personal communications, September 14-29, 1988; see Appendix B). Summary of Projected Supply Survey instruments returned by superintendents, principals, and assistant principals furnished data utilized in projecting the number of principals and assistant principals that would be in the supply pool for 1992-93. Projection of the supply of nonadministrators was made by employing trends in administrator certification and questionnaires returned by

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90 nonadministrators. 1The results showed that a supply of 2007 would be available 1992-93. Adjustments were made to the supply total that were based upon the nonadministrators' application activities. The resultant range of supply was from 870 to 1406. Three projections based upon researcher assumptions for principal supply were described. Should the minimum age of retirement be lowered two years, at least 28 more principals than the number projected by this study would be eligible for retirement. Chapter Summary Chapter IV described the demographic data received from researcher-designed questionnaires that were returned by 244 elementary principals and 28 elementary assistant principals. The data depicted the administrators' ages, supervisory responsibilities, retirement plans, and tenure in present position, present district, and the state. The current supply of elementary principals was found to be 2022. This figure included the 730 principals and 99 assistant principals currently in position plus 1193 non-administrators. Also included were 66 current administrators not certified to the position. Supply data were obtained I I from CDE publications, personal communications, and

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91 questionnaires returned by superintendents, administrators, and nonadministrators. Responses from the states' superintendents indicated a projected demand for elementary principals to be 794 by 1992-93, for a mean yearly growth of 1.4 percent. The majority of the districts anticipated no changes in the number of principal positions during the two-year base period ending with the 1988-89 school year. Based upon data supplied by CDE and questionnaires returned by superintendents, administrators, and nonadministra-tors, the size of the supply pool was expected to be within a range of from 870 to 1406 individuals in 1992-93. This range was determined by removing from consideration those nonadminis-trators who replied negatively to questions concerning whether applications were submitted, whether job vacancy bulletins were received, or whether they were reluctant to relocate. Without these limiting factors, the projected supply was 2007. Under any of the above scenarios, projected supply exceeded projected demand by 76 or more certified nonadministrators.

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CHAPTER V SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS This study sought to determine if the supply would be sufficient to meet the demand for elementary school principals needed to lead the public elementary schools in Colorado in 1992-93. This chapter summarizes the study and its findings, presents the conclusions, examines researcher assumptions which would alter the supply and demand projections, and discusses implications. Recommendations close the chapter. Summary of Methodology The study utilized researcher-designed questionnaires to obtain demographic data from principals, assistant principals, and nonadministrators within the state of Colorado. The returned questionnaires provided data detailing the age, certification status, employment experience, and professional plans of each randomly selected group. A questionnaire was also mailed to each of the state's superintendents to determine the number of principals in position and the predicted demand in the succeeding two years.

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93 The superintendents' anticipated requirements served as the basis for the projection of the number of principals expected to be in demand in 1992-93. The number expected to be in the supply channels at that time was similarly determined by using data from the principal, assistant principal, and nonadministrator questionnaires. Also incorporated were data obtained from the Colorado Department of Education (CDE) depicting pupil enrollment and certification trends. Findings As of 1992-93, based on a projected growth rate of nearly eleven principals per year, the demand for elementary principals was projected to total 794 principals. The supply of individuals certificated as elementary principals was projected to be 2007 in 1992-93, nearly three times the projected demand. However, anywhere from 601 to 1137 of these individuals could be termed noncandidates for administrative positions because they were inactive in submitting applications, not taking advantage of mechanisms designed to assist job seekers, or unwilling to relocate to obtain a position. The remaining 870 to 1406 certified individuals were more than enough to satisfy the expected demand.

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Conclusions Throughout the five-year period considered by this study, the demand for elementary school principals can be more than adequately met by the supply, assuming that all those certified to be principals were considered qualified to fill such positions. Discussion 94 The conclusion in this study could be altered by one or more conditions that could, but are not anticipated to, occur in the near future. First, elementary schools could become day care centers for the entire workday, a practice that has found initial success in other states. The additional workload would require more administrators, either as joint-principals or principalassistant principal combinations. Additionally, the several buildings across the state currently sharing principals with other buildings could find themselves with their own full-time principals. The net effect would be an increase in demand that was sudden, creating salary demands greater than those expressed today and possibly generating more interest in training programs. Second, pupil enrollment in Colorado has been projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.3 percent between 1986-87

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95 and 1991-92 (Hennes et al., 1987; Keith, 1987). Should the demand for principals increase at a similar rate, the predicted demand could be for at least 12 more principals than projected in this study. These 795 principal positions could easily be filled by the high-end projected supply of 1406. The net result could be more school buildings, but the effect on the principal aspirants would be relatively inconsequential. However, it is expected that most of these additional facilities would be constructed along the Front Range, that region of the state in which more than 60 percent of the nonadministrators currently resided. Relocation would not be required for many of these 12 additional principals, and many of the 1137 nonadministrators deemed noncandidates because of their unwillingness to relocate could be placed back in the ready reserve, thereby increasing even further the size of the projected supply. Third, the salary structure for classroom teachers could continue to increase until it approximates that of school administrators. In combination with the greater workload and pressures resulting from ever-increasing accountability, sizeable teacher salary increases could cause many nonadministrators to remain in the classroom. It could discourage some prospective administrator trainees from entering programs

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96 leading to certification as principals. The net result would be a decrease in the size of the supply pool. Implications of the Findings The study findings hold implications for prospective and current principals, school districts, state training institutions, and the Colorado Department of Education. The Prospective Principal The results of this study indicate that the supply of elementary school principals will be more than enough to meet the demand as the 1992-93 school year opens. That competition for future openings will be stiff should be clear to the prospective school principal. Preparation for the position may prove fruitless unless the candidate accepts the fact that principal openings in the future may not be in the immediate neighborhood. Relocation to another region of the state may prove necessary to obtain a position. Of course, widespread, demonstrated willingness to relocate would only increase the size of the ready reserve, thereby making the prospects of obtaining the principalship even more difficult.

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97 The Current Principal The oversupply of certified principal candidates should alert current principals of the constant need to improve their skills. The practice of long-term tenure in the principalship could become increasingly tenuous as school superintendents receive more pressure from the state legislature and the public for effective education in the schools. There may be a long line of applicants awaiting a chance to improve the schools. The Superintendent Superintendents will be able to be very selective as they seek leaders for their schools. Some superintendents will also find that the prospective principals they employ are reluctant to transfer to other regions of the state, thereby providing the superintendents with the leverage that may be necessary to increase or maintain high levels of cooperation among the principals. Further, with the supply being so great, efforts to hold principal salaries in check may prove successful. The Training Institution The state training institutions, knowing that an oversupply exists, will have the opportunity to strengthen their student bodies through more stringent admission standards and/or program requirements in order to adjust their programs to meet

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the changing needs of the state's school districts. The transfer of funds to other programs in the education schools where greater needs exist may be possible. On the other hand, should the principal supply not prove to be excessive, the institutions may seek to instruct larger student bodies that would enable the districts to be more selective (Dunn, 1977). Colorado Department of Education 98 The high range of supply may allow the Colorado Department of Education (CDE) to review and strengthen the requirements presently in place for the Type D Administrative Certificate with Elementary Endorsement. A readjustment of retirement provisions may be in order, as may the implementation of district administrative internship programs. The latter may prove helpful to the prospective principals as well as the district. Further Research The purpose of this study was to project the supply of and demand for public elementary school principals in 1992-93. The results indicate that a sizeable oversupply could exist at that time. This study assumed that all in the supply pool were truly qualified to occupy the position of principal. This may or may not be a valid assumption. Further research might seek to establish the percentage of the principal supply that is

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99 perceived by superintendents and district personnel administrators to be unqualified, in spite of certification, to lead an elementary school in this state. The net result may be a much smaller supply pool, thereby necessitating changes in the plans of the administrators, school districts, and training institutions.

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REFERENCES Agarwal, S. P. (1970). Manpower demand: Concepts and methodology. Meerut, India: Meenaksi Prakashan. Bell, T. H. (1986). A nation still at risk. Principal, 66, 5-6. Boyer, E. L. (1983). High school: A report on secondary education in America: The Carnegie Foundation for the advancement of teaching. New York: Harper & Row. Buffie, E. G. (1984). Accountability: The key to excellence. Childhood Education, 61, 107-114. Cantagalli, C. M. (1984). Trends in the supply of and demand for Pennsylvania public school administrators. Dissertation Abstracts International, 42, 4215A. (University Microfilms No. 82-07, 573) Colorado Association of School Executives (1984). [Anticipated Member Retirement]. Unpublished raw data. Colorado Department of Education. (1981). Status of K-12 public education in Colorado. 1981. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1982). Status of K-12 public education in Colorado, 1982. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1984). Status of K-12 public education in Colorado. 1984. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1984). Colorado education directory. 1984-85. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1985). Colorado education directory. 1985-86. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1986). Colorado education directory. 1986-87. Denver: Author.

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Colorado Department of Education. (1986). Status of K-12 public education in Colorado. 1986. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1987). Colorado education directory. 1987-88. Denver: Author. Colorado Department of Education. (1987). [Certificates issued]. Unpublished raw data. 101 Colorado population estimates and projections. (1985). Denver: Colorado State Data Center. Colorado Revised Statutes. (1983). 22-60-1103, 113. Denver. Dunn, W. B. (1977). The relationship between alienation of teachers and their failure to secure employment as administrators (Doctoral dissertation, University of Colorado, 1977). Dissertation Abstracts International, 38, 7047A. Elsbree, W. S., McNally, H. J., & Wynn, R. (1967). Elementary school administration and supervision. New York: American. Gardner, D. P. (1983). A nation at risk: The imperative for educational reform. An open letter to the American people. A report to the nation and the Secretary of Education. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Goldman, S. (1966). The school principal. New York: The Center for Applied Research in Education, Inc. Goodlad, J. I. (1984). A place called school. New York: McGraw-Hill. Greene, L. E. (1986). Tomorrow's principal. Principal, 66, 4. Griffin, T. (1985-1986, Winter). Migration and public school enrollment: Implications for policy and planning. In PACE: Population Analyses for Colorado Educators. Denver, CO: Colorado Department of Education. Hague, P. N. (1985). The industrial market research handbook. London: Kogan Page. Henderson, J., Renaud, E. B., Goodykoontz, C. B., Mills, J., Willard, J. F., Barrett, H. M., & McKeehan, I. P. (1927). Colorado: Short studies of its past and present. Denver: Welch-Haffner.

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Hennes, J. D., Lane, K., & Barnes, J. C. (1987). Trends and projections regarding Colorado's school age population. 1970-2000. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Hodgkinson, H. L. (1986). What's ahead for education? Principal, 65, 6-11. Hooker, C. P. (1973). The supply and demand of public school administrators in Minnesota. St. Paul, MN: Minnesota University, Division of Educational Administration. (ERIC Document Reproduction Service No. ED 079 809) 102 Howard, J. L. (1982). The supply and demand for public school administrators. Dissertation Abstracts International, 44, 1991A. (University Microfilms No. 83-26, 820) ILO Document. (1968). The labour market and the manpower forecaster Some problems. In M. J. Bowman, M. Debeauvais, V. E. Komarov, & J. Vaizey (Eds.), Readings in the economics of education (pp. 700-711). Paris: UNESCO. ILO Document. (1968). Skill requirements versus skill availabilities. In M. J. Bowman, M. Debeauvais, V. E. Komarov, & J. Vaizey (Eds.), Readings in the economics of education (pp. 774-775). Paris: UNESCO. Jackson, G. A., & Deal, T. E. (1985). Technology, learning environments, and tomorrow's schools. Peabody Journal of Education, 62, 93-113. Keith, J. A. (1984). Certified personnel salaries and related information. Fall 1983. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Keith, J. A. (1984). Pupil membership and related information, Fall 1983. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Keith, J. A. (1987). Pupil membership and related information. Fall 1986. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Keith, J. A. (1988). Certificated personnel and related information: Fall 1987. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Kuh, G., McCarthy, M., & Zent, A. (1983). Supply and demand for school administrators. Educational Research Quarterly, 2-18.

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Martin, J. A., & Andes, J. 0. (1979). Supply and demand for school administrators. Educational Research Quarterly, 2-18. 103 Metz, A. S. (1977). Teacher and school administrator supply and demand. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. National Center for Education Statistics. (1985). The condition of education. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. National Center for Education Statistics. (1985). Indicators of education status and trends: January 1985. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. National Center for Education Statistics. (1985). Projections of education statistics to 1992-93: Methodological report with detailed projection tables. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Neppl, R. E. (1983). Teacher supply and demand for public school K-12 programs in Colorado: 1980 and beyond (Doctoral dissertation, University of Colorado, 1983). Dissertation Abstracts International, 43, 4501A. Neppl, R. E. (1986, April 29). Department completes teacher supply/demand study. Education Colorado & Insight, p. 1. Passow, A. H. (1984). Tackling the reform reports of the 1980s. Phi Delta Kappan, 65, 674-583. Pease, P. D. (1984). Teacher education in Colorado. 1982-34. Denver: Colorado Department of Pease, P. D. (1985). Teacher education in Colorado. 1983-85. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Pease, P. D. (1987). Teacher education in Colorado. 1984-85 and 1985-86. Denver: Colorado Department of Pease, P. D. (1988). Teacher education in Colorado. 1986-87. Denver: Colorado Department of Education. Phi Delta Kappa. (1980). Why do some urban schools succeed? Bloomington, IN: Author.

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104 Public Employees Retirement Association. Benefits in brief. Denver: Author. Robinson, G. E., & Brown, M. (1986). School salaries, 1985-86. Principal, 65, 56-61. Seifert, E. H. III (1976). The supply and demand of public school administrators in Oklahoma. Dissertation Abstracts International, 38, 5180A. (University Microfilms No. 78-01, 330) U.S. Department of Commerce. (1985). Statistical abstract of the United States: .1986. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

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APPENDIX A LETTERS, QUESTIONNAIRES, AND POSTCARDS

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106 Dear Please consider this request for cooperation in a doctoral dissertation study of supply of and demand for elementary school administrators in Colorado over the next few years. The brief questionnaire will take a very few minutes to complete. Projections of supply and demand require accurate data, much of which can be and will be taken from public sources. Other data require reliance on specific district or individual sources. Information provided will remain confidential and reported without identification of individual respondents. Further information can be obtained by calling Professor Meyers, Chair of the Dissertation Committee, at 556-3357. The questionnaire is not coded in any fashion. A research assistant has a card file of names and addresses of individuals being asked to participate. When the enclosed post card is returned separately, the respondent's card will be removed from the card file, and it and the post card will be returned. Your cooperation in completing and returning the enclosed questionnaire is important to the study, and much appreciated by the researcher. Russell W. Meyers, Associate Professor Dissertation Committee Chair JTH/ceh enclosures (3) Sincerely, James T. Heydt

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107 Dear On January 21, 1987, I mailed you a letter and a very brief questionnaire. The information I asked you to provide is to be used in my doctoral dissertation that projects the supply and demand of elementary school principals through the 1991-92 school year. Perhaps it has become mixed up with other important correspondence in your office. Your confidential input is needed for me to complete my research. Please take time to read the attached copy of the January 21, cover letter and answer the short questions. I have enclosed a stamped self addressed envelope for you use so that you may return the questionnaire before February 27. Thank you for your cooperation. JTH/ceh enclosure (2) Sincerely, James T. Heydt

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108 SUPEBINTENQENT QUESTIONNAIRE DIRECTIONS: This questionnaire will provide data needed for a projection of the supply of and demand for public elementary school administrators In the State of Colorado thn:lugh the 1991-92 school year. Pfease answer the following questions concemlng their status In your district. 1. The 198H7 CDE EclJcallon Dlractory lndk:ates there are elementary principals in your district. Is this null"ber accurate? __ yes no H no, please indicate the null"ber of elementary principals In your district. __ Principals 2. Between now and the end of the 1988-89 school year, how many positions do you anticipate adding or deleting In your district? Elementary Principal Elementary Assistant Principal Thank you very much for your cooperation. Please mail this In the enclosed envelope to: JamesT.Heydt University of Colorado at Denver School of Education 1100 Fourteenth Street Campus Box 1 06 Denver, CO 80202 number to be added number lobe deleted

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109 PRINCIPAL QUESTIONNAIRE DIRECTIONS: This questionnaire will provide data needed for a projection of the supply of and demand for public elementary school administrators in the State of Colorado through the 1991-92 school year. Please answer the following questions concerning your status as an elementary school principal, which Is Indicated In the 1986-87 CDE Education Directory. 1 What is your age? under 30 years from 31 -35 years from 36 40 years from 41 45 years from 46 -so years over 50 years 2. How many years have you worked in Colorado public schools? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 years from 3 -4 years from 5 -1 0 years more than 1 0 years 3. How many years have you been an elementary level administrator, either principal or assistant principal? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 from 3 -4 years from 5 -1 0 years more than 1 0 years 4. How many years have you been in your present district? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 years from 3 -4 years from 5 -1 0 years more than 1 0 years 5. How many years have you been in your present position? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 years from 3 -4 years from 5 -1 0 years more than 10 years 6. Do you have a Type D Certificate with an elementary endorsement? yes no

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7. Do you supervise more than one building? __ yes no If yes, how many buildings do you supervise? 2 buildings __ 3 -4 buildings __ 5 or more buildings B. Do you plan to retire between now and the 1992-93 school year? __ yes no H yes, please Indicate which school year will be your final one. 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 9. Professionally speaking, what are your future plans tor: 1987-88 110 1988-89 --------------'----------1989-90 -----------------------1990-91 1991-92 ----------------------10. Do you have an assistant principal in your building? __ yes no H yes, please give the enclosed questionnaire and accompanying envelope to that person. Thank you very much tor your cooperation. Please mail this in the enclosed envelope to: James T. Heydt University of Colorado at Denver 11 00 Fourteenth Street Campus Box 1 06 Denver, CO 80202

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111 ASSISTANT PRINCIPAL QUESTIONNAIRE DIRECTIONS: This questionnaire will provide dala needed lor a projection of the supply of and demand lor public elementary school administrators In the State ol Colorado through the 1991-92 school year. Please answerthe following questions concerning your status as an elementary school assistant principal. 1 What is your age? __ under 30 years from 31 35 years from 36 40 years from 41 45 years from 46 50 years over 50 years 2. How many years have you worked in Colorado public schools? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 years from 3 -4 years from 5 10 years __ more than 10 years 3. How many years have you been an elementary level administrator, either principal or assistant principal? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 years from 3 -4 years from 5 -1 0 years more than 1 0 years 4. How many years have you been in your present district? less than 1 full year from 1 -2 years from 3 -4 years from 5 1 0 years more than 1 0 years 5. Do you have a Type D Certificate with an Elementary Endorsement? yes no

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6. How many years have you been in your present position? less than 1 lull year from 1 2 years from 3 4 years from 5 10 years more than 10 years 7. How many students attend your school? less than 1 00 students from 101 200 students from 201 300 students from 301 400 students from 401 500 students more than 500 students 8. Do you plan to retire between now and the 1992 school year? __ yes no If yes, please indicate which school year will be your final one. 1986-87 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 9. Professionally speaking, what are your future plans for: 112 1987-88 ----------------------1988 ------------------------1989-90 -----------------------1990 1991 -----------------------Thank you very much for your cooperation. Please mall this in the enclosed envelope to: James T. Heydt University of Colorado at Denver 1100 Fourteenth Street Campus Box 1 06 Denver, CO 80202

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QUESTIONNAIRE FOR THOSE CERTIFIED AS ADMINISTRATORS WHO DO NOT OCCUPY ADMINISTRATIVE pOSITIONS DIRECTiONS: 113 This questionnaire will provide data needed for a projection of the supply of and demand for public elementary school administrators in the State of Colorado, through the 1991 school year. Please answer the following questions concerning your status as a certified elementary school administralor, as Indicated by the University of 1. The University of records lnd"ate that you currently hold a valid Type D Administl'illive Certificate with an Elementary School Endorsement. Is this accurate? _yes no If yes, how many years have you been certified as an elementary school administrator in Colorado? __ less than 1 full year __ from 1 4 years __ 5 years or more If yes, when does your administrator's certifiCate expire? 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 If yes, when your administrator's certificate expires, will you renew It? yes 2. What is your age? no under 30 years __ from 31 35 years __ from 36 40 years __ from 41 45 years __ from 46 years __ over 50 years 3. Are you currently working In a public school in the State of Colorado? __ yes --no 4. In what area of the state are you presently living? Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast Front Range

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5. How many years have you lived in your present location? less than 1 full year __ from 1 -4 years __ 5 years or more 6. How many applications for elementary administrative positions did you submit: __ In the 1986 school year __ In the 1985-86 school year 7. To which reglon(s) of the state were these applications sent? Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast Front Range 8. How many interviews for elementary administative positions did you have: __ In the 1986-87 school year __ In the 1985-86 school year 114 9. Have you attended a seminar or class that offered guidance on securing an administrative position: __ In the 1986-87 school year __ in the 1985-86 school year 10. Do you currently receive a vacancy bulletin regularly that lists administrative openings? __ yes no 11. Would you be willing to relocate in order to obtain an administrative position? __ yes no Hyes: Circle the reglon(s) of the state to which you would be willing to relocate, including the region in which you currently reside. Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast Thank you very much lor your cooperation. Please mall this in the enclosed envelope to: James T. Heydt University of Colorado at Denver 11 00 Fourteenth Street Campus Box 1 06 Denver, CO 80202 Front Range

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.. I have returned my questionnaire to you. ) Please check If you want a copy of the findings. James T. Heydt University of Colorado at Denver School.of Education 11 00 Fourteenth Street Campus Box 1 06 Denver, CO 80202 115

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APPENDIX B PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS

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M. Callan (1988) provided data on recent principal retirements. Callan is the Executive Director of Human Resources for Boulder Valley Schools. M. Crouch (1988) provided data on recent principal retirements. Crouch is the Executive Director of Elementary Education for Thompson School District. L. Dirschl (1988) provided data on recent principal retirements. Dirschl is the Insurance Benefits Supervisor for Jefferson County School District. D. Incitti (1988) provided data on recent principal retirements. Incitti is Assistant Superintendent for Personnel Services for Colorado Springs School District. C. M. Kelly (1987) provided a list of calendar-year 1986 administrative interns. The list was derived from state training institutions during Kelly's doctoral dissertation at the University of Colorado-Boulder. R. W. Meyers (1988) provided data from state training institutions regarding enrollment in administrative programs. Meyers is Professor of Education at the University of Colorado-Denver. C. McNeill (1988) provided data on recent principal retirements. McNeill is Coordinator of Classified Personnel of Cherry Creek School District. J. M. Walker (1987) provided data regarding certification trends. Walker is Supervisor of the Colorado Department of Education Certification Unit. 117