Citation
The Denver economy

Material Information

Title:
The Denver economy its history, economic base, regional impact and its direction into the future
Uncontrolled:
History, economic base, regional impact and its direction into the future
Creator:
Nieves, Wilmer ( author )
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 electronic file (iv, 117 leaves charts) : ;

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Economic history ( fast )
Economic policy ( fast )
Economic conditions -- Denver (Colo.) ( lcsh )
Economic policy -- Denver (Colo.) ( lcsh )
Colorado -- Denver ( fast )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (M.U.R.P)--University of Colorado at Denver, 1978.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 115-117).
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Master's degree in Urban and Regional Planning/Community Development, College of Design and Planning.
Statement of Responsibility:
presented by Wilmer Nieves.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Colorado Denver
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
on10115 ( NOTIS )
1011520614 ( OCLC )
on1011520614

Full Text
A/ iewe.^
THE DENVER ECONOMY:
ITS HISTORY, ECONOMIC BASE, REGIONAL IMPACT
AND
ITS DIRECTION INTO THE FUTURE
ARCHIVES LD 1190 A72 1978 : N53
Presented
by
Wilmer Nieves August 7, 1978


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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Preface 1
Introduction 2
PART ONE: Denvers Economic History 7
PART TWO: A Review of Publications on Denver's
Economy and Employment IM-
PART THREE: Shift-Share Analysis of Industrial
Employment in Denver for Determining
Denvers Role within the Region and
Its Direction for the Future 25
V
PART FOUR: Economic Opportunities and Obstacles
Confronting Denver 95
Bibliography 115
TABLES
Table 1: Growth Potential of Economic Subsectors
Denver SMSA and City 20
Table 2: Relative Growth of Agricultural Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967 30
Table 3: Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Agricultural Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy,
1967-1972 32
Table 4: Relative Growth of Contract Construction
Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967 35
Table 5: Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Contract Construction Industries
1


m
38
41
43
47
49
52
55
61
63
66
69
73
Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972
Relative Growth of Finance Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967
Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Finance Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972
Relative Growth of Government Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967
Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Government Industires, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972
Relative Growth of Manufacturing Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967
Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Manufacturing Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972
Relative Growth of Mining Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1967 as Percent of 1972
Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Mining Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972
Relative Growth of Retail Trade Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967
Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Retail Trade Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972
Relative Growth of Selected Services Industries Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967
Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Selected Services Industries,
11


Page
Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972 75
Table 18: Relative Growth of Transportation Industries Ecmployment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967 79
Table 195 Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Transportation Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972 82
Table 20: Relative Growth of Wholesale Trade Industries
Employment Comparing Denver SMSA to United States Economy, 1972 as Percent of 1967 85
Table 21: Shift-Share Analysis of Denver Employment Change by Transportation Industries, Using United States as Comparison Economy 1967-1972 90
CHARTS
Chart A: Relative Growth by Agricultural Industry 31
Chart B: Agricultural Employment Changes Related
to 1967-1972 33
Chart C: Relative Growth by Contract Construction
Industry 36
Chart D: Contract Construction Employment Changes
Related to 1967-1972 39
Chart E: Relative Growth by Finance Industry
Chart F: Finance Employment Changes Related to
1967-1972 ¥*
Chart G: Relative Growth by Government Industry ^8
Chart H: Government Employment Changes Related to
1967-1972 50
Chart I: Relative Growth by Manufacturing Industry 5^
Chart J: Manufacturing Employment Changes Related
to 1967-1972 57
Chart K: Relative Growth by Mining Industry 62
111


Pa^e
Chart I<: Mining Employment Changes Related to 1967-
1972 6^
Chart M: Relative Growth by Retail Trade Industry 68
Chart N: Retail Trade Employment Changes Related to
1967-1972 70
Chart 0: Relative Growth by Selected Services Industry 7^-
Chart P: Selected Services Employment Changes Related
to 1967-1972 77
Chart Q: Relative Growth by Transportation Industry 80
Chart R: Transportaion Employment Changes Related
to 1967-1972 83
Chart S: Relative Growth by Wholesale Trade Industry 87
Chart T: Wholesale Trade Employment Changes Related
to 1967-1972
92


PREFACE
This report presents a summary of historical, recent and anticipated trends in the economic base development of the City and County of Denver and the Denver Region as defined by the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA). Included in the report is a description of Denver's economic history and how its past, combined with national and regional economic conditions and trends, have affected Denver's economic development .
An economic model, the shift-share analysis, is used to determine the effect of national trends and industrial conditions on regional economic activity and employment. The Denver region's share of national growth and the regional overall industrial structure is discussed. In addition, key industries, obstacles confronting Denver and existing opportunities are identified along with recommendations for increasing Denver's revenue sources from economic activity and employment.
In conclusion, the writer hopes to convey to the reader an insight and understanding of the interrelationship between economic base activity and how it influences city government, especially in regards to revenue and expenditure. Only through this understanding can individuals begin to influence the economic base in order to bring about desired community goals.
1


INTRODUCTION
A knowledge of the structure and functioning of the urban economy is fundamental to all planners. The future of a city is controlled by the extent and character of its income producing activity -- the economic base. Economic base theory maintains that the exporting of products stimulates and builds the local economy by virtue of the new money brought into the area. The distribution of goods and services create jobs, housing and a greater tax base for the city. In turn a solid and thriving income producing city can better plan for the enhancement of the quality of life for its citizens.
The economy of a city dictates new business and industry, population growth and land development. However, over the past decades there has been a degeneration of the economic vitality of our major cities. The reasons are as numerous as they are diverse, not one or any one combination of them can account for the continued economic decline of the city. The deteriorating neighborhoods, higher property taxes, an increase in cost for certain goods and services, crowding, crime, alienation, apathy, racial cleavages, minority impaction, air pollution and a faster pace of life are but a few examples that have allowed a minor suburban preference to become a mass exodus of businesses, industries and ex-urban dwellers into the "hinterlands."
2


- 3 -
Many, if not all, major cities are being left with a segment of a larger metropolitan population who either prefer to live in cities or are unable to afford alternatives. In any event, the urban population does not generate enough revenues for the city. The city, in its quest for a higher standard of living, falls short of realizing its potential.
The trends just mentioned have appeared in the City and County of Denver. The pattern is all to apparent as cited in several technical reports and newspaper articles. The decentralization of people, businesses and industries have decreased Denver's earning capacity and in providing employment opportunities for its residents.
Denver's economic base establishes the amount and variety of employment, which intrinsically determines the level of income and its distribution, which eventually sets constraints to the quality of life which can be achieved. The larger an economic base, the more it influences public sector revenues and expenditures.
In order for one to comprehend the forces at work in a base economy, one must among other things look at its labor force, identify key industries and their locational requirements. The growth or non-growth of an economic base, then, is largely determined by these conditions. Not only do these conditions represent past and present trends of an economy, they are also the touchstone for the future of an economic
base.


PRESENTATION
The research is presented in four parts. In Part One, the research examines Denver's economic history and its evolved role as a regional center. Part Two contains descriptions of Denvers current and anticipated role as explained in a variety of economic research publications. In Part Three, the research undertakes the analysis of the causes of growth for the economic base of the Denver Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) for the years 196? to 1972 using the shift-share analysis. Finally, Part Four contains the identification of obstacles confronting Denver and existing opportunities to increase economic base activity. Included are recommendations and strategies to achieve an increased tax base.
CATEGORIES OF INDUSTRIES
The following is a listing of the major industrial categories used in this research and a description of the base activity each represents.
1. Agriculture: This farming related industrial activity functions primarily for the production and processing of grains, vegetables fruits, poultry, meat and other farm products for export.
2. Construction? Building Activity. The area's major construction activities are supported or operated by developers


- 5 -
from outside the region who bring their fanancing with them.
The result of this is a major employment for the area. Housing, business development and urban renewal are major operations in Denver.
3* finance; This banking insurance and real estate related activity functions as the distribution and retaining center for money received from outside the area.
Government: In consideration of the definition for
base theory, that of having products exported out of the region and bringing new monetary stimulation into the region, this category is unusual. Government's monetary input, much of which is derived from outside the region, into this region through its employees or military and research personnel is substantial.
5- Manufacturing: The Denver area serves as the regional center for the making of machinery, metal and wood products, electrical goods, vehicles, transportation equipment and other products. Many products are marketed nationally bringing monetary stimulation to the area.
6. Mining: This natural resource related industry group functions primarily for the export of either raw materials, refined metals, or primary metals products.
7. Retail Trade: This industry primarily provides for local consumption. However, as a regional center, Denver provides for the storage and distribution of goods. There is also considerable amounts of new monetary stimulation as the result of tourism.
8. Selected Services; This industry is related to


6
tourism, entertainment, lodging, repair services, medical and legal aid. The majority of new monetary stimulation is derived from the effects of tourism.
9 Transportation: This industry is the main link for all other industries for the movement of goods imported exported or transferred. Transportation affects all export industries. The Denver area serves as the terminal point of all transportation networks.
10. Wholesale Trade: This industry is linked to the distribution and transportation network. Wholesale marts for many types of merchandise operate out of the Denver area. Because of its role as a shipping and receiving center, Denver offers advantages to commercial and industrial and consumer wholesale trade. This industry is constantly generating large volume import-export activity, with storage display and transfer being the focus rather than actual production.


PART ONE


DENVER'S ECONOMIC HISTORY
The Congressional offerings of public land in 1855 and I856 to veterans and their widows of previous wars began the first permanent settlements into Denver. Not until the May 1859 discovery of gold bearing quartz in Gregory Gulch, the Central City and Blackhawk area, did Denver see the beginning of a large influx of people into its area and the front range sections of the Territory of Colorado, west of Denver. Due to the Congressional passage of the Homestead Act in 1862, more and more land became accessible to those living on the Eastern Coast.
The South Platte-Cherry Creek confluence had been used by Indian hunting parties, white fur trappers and early prospectors as a meeting place and camp location. The tiny settlement that grew around trade and supplying activities became the center of attention for gold happy miners looking for an opportunity to spend. Today, Denver is the principal city in Colorado's largest metropolitan area.
Early miners took advantage of other mineral strikes as well. Throughout the 1860's ore processing took place in the mining towns where refractories were built and the ore products hauled out by wagon.
There was plenty of ore, however, not all was of sufficient purity for refractory processing. Nathaniel P. Hill,
7


B
a professor of Chemistry at Brown University, Providence,
Rhode Island, inquired into the mining interests in Colorado and noted the failure of the refractory process. Hill assaulted the problem for slightly over two years and successfully developed the smelter-refinery process. Since this utilized an accurately controlled high degree of heat that was both chemically cleansing and solvent reacting, the poorer ores suddenly became competitive. A new boom emerged.
Hill became an industrialist and his first smelter began operating in Blackhawk in 1868. It operated for ten years, then moved to Denver becoming the Argo Smelter covering several acres. The railroads were in Denver by then, and the smelter operations depended on the railroads.
The Blackhawk plant produced $1,000,000 in gold bullion in its ten year existence. In the same time span the Argo Pland in Denver produced $45,000,000 in gold bullion.
In 1883, the Omaha and Grant Smelter was built and in I890, the Globe Smelter started its fires in what is still today called the 'Globeville" neighborhood. By I899 the three smelters produced $350 million dollars of high quality refined gold, silver, lead, copper, zinc, iron and alloys.
Prior to the development of Denver smeltering operations, ore was shipped to St. Louis by wagon, then down the Mississippi River on barges to the Gulf of Mexico and to the Atlantic to New York, then the ore was taken by sea to Wales for extensive refining through large refractory and crushing processes. Denver's ore processing customers included British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Old Mexico, as well


9
as Colorado. By 1900, the Denver smelters paid an average monthly wage of $100.00.
There has been speculation as to whether the gold discoveries or the railroads were more important to Denver's economy. The gold and railroads attracted prospectors of all types including gamblers, saloons and gambling halls, prostitutes, speculators, monopolists, entrepreneurs, tourists and legitimate businesses. The freely flowing money brought manufacturers and men of higher education and refinement. Theatres, hotels, and office buildings became a part of Denver. The 1877 silver strike in Leadville allowed many to retire to Denver in style. Capitol Hill's mansions still reflect the impact of that era. The gold provided the initial stimulus and money to Denver, the railrods sustained its growth and allowed for the diversification of the Denver economy. The railroads proved to be the major breakthrough in Denver's economic history. The gold soon stopped and alternatives were provided for with the railroads.
In I865 the decision to bypass Denver and build north through Cheyenne was made by the Union Pacific Railroad Company. After several attempts, no willing railroad could be found to build into Denver. The Union Pacific Railroad was built 100 miles to the north in IB67. Denver seemed doomed.
In I867 John Evans and David Moffat organized the Denver Pacific Railroad and appealed to the Denver citizens to buy stock. "Pay or Perish" was their slogan. The response was remarkable and the Denver Post recorded in an article that
$225,000 in stock subscriptions were sold in a single day.


10
On June 2k, 1870, the first passenger train arrived from Cheyenne. Excited by the prospects, William Palmer began building his Denver Rio Grande Railroad which went through Colorado Springs in I87I and was completed in Pueblo in 1872.
In I876, the Sante Fe, the Denver Rio Grande, and the Kansas Pacific completed a polling agreement. In 1882 the Burlington Northern brought their railroad into Denver and by the summer of 188^-, there were 52 trains daily through Denver's station and yards with an estimated 500,000 passengers in or out of the depot.
The gold brought the people, the people brought the railroad; and, the railroad, in turn, brought the smelters which attracted more industries and hence more people.
The Kansas Pacific and the Union Pacific Railroads had been given extensive land grants from the Federal Government for building their lines. In an effort to sell lands and to return a profit, they launched an advertising campaign to lure Eastern farmers west and to teach them irrigation. By far, the most successful group was the Union Colony. Organized by Horace Greely, editor of the New York Tribune, and Nathan Meeker, his agricultural editor, the Union Colony group came to Colorado in 18-70 and established the town of Greely. Irrigation projects were begun and became highly successful.
Before long the dry prairie was producing an abundance of grain, alfalfa and later the sugar beet. Denver, as the largest city, was the natural market center. Denver's hinterlands became capable of supporting the city and the entire region was beginning to benefit from an increasing level of


11
self-suffcc iency.
In 1P71, there were 1,128 buildings within the city limits of Denver, and less than one-half were two stories high. By 1P5. the number of buildings had increased more than tenfold. The Albany Hotel was opened in I885 which was typical of the extravagant hotels of the period, complete with tea rooms, marble foundations and strutting peacocks.
By the turn of the century, Denver had grown to be the largest city in the Rocky Mountains between St. Louis and San Francisco. From that time forth Denver was known as the 'Queen City of the Plains."
After the gold mining booms ended in 1910, population in Denver grew between 1 and 3 per cent per year. Between the turn of the century and the Depression years, Denver grew more rapidly as a regional center. Construction tripled, indicating a dramatic in-migration of people. The population increased from. 109,522 in 1900 to 245,033 in 1930. General manufacturing industry tripled in that time and machinery and machine products manufacturing grew 320 per cent within 30 years.
During the Depression, wholesale trade increased as Denver and the region was driven to the soil. The 1940 U. S. Census of the Population Statistics showed that Denver people employed to wholesale trade business increased fifty times between 1930 and 1940, or approximately 5000 per cent.
During World War II Denver continued to show growth. The SMSA (Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) showed a population increase of 43 per cent between 1940 and 1950; yet, base employment in construction, wood products, general manufactur-


12
ing (other durable products) and trucking and warehousing more than doubled. Denver was asserting her self as a regional center. This strength is an attraction in itself, for during the next ten-year period, the population of the entire Denver SMSA would more than double.
World War II stimulated growth in Denver and transportation progress enabled Denver to become the home of many "smokeless industries," such as research and light manufacturing. Denver continued as the region's largest distribution center.
As the mountain region economy developed, Denver's central location within it attracted many companies, particularly airlines, railroads and trucking companies. In addition, many firms made Denver a location for their national headquarters .
After World War II, a large munitions and ordinance factory closed its operations west of Denver. Through fancy manipulation and fast action, the Federal Government was invited into the closed site, converting the factory into a vast Federal Center. The full potential of this investment is yet to be realized. In 1950. there were 7,668 workers employed by the Federal Government. With the advent of the Federal Center, this figure increased to 22,300 by i960. The 1970 U. S. Census of the Population indicates that there are over 26,200 Federal employees in the Denver SMSA. The 1970 census also reported that there were 30,^00 people employed in the construction industries and 28,800 in the wholesale trade industries. These three industry groups are by far


- 13 -
the largest base industry employers in the Denver SMSA.
The influx of industries has naturally brought many people who have made Colorados mountains the top tourist attraction in the area. Skiing in particular has helped tourism to become one of the most important industries in Colorado. Denver is the gateway to this vast recreational area.
The mining, metal and manufacturing industries have continued to exhibit steady growth in the realm of natural resource development. This is Denver's heritage. As an example, machinery manufacturing has maintained a relatively stable position throughout its history. In 1880, this category employed 1.5 per cent of the total employment for Denver. In 1910, this category employed 2.0 per cent of the total employment for Denver. And, in 1973 this category employed 1.8 per cent of the total employment for the Denver SMSA.
The mean of the percentage that base employment is of the total employment from 1880 to 1970 is 2.^6 per cent. This has remained fairly constant, ranging from 19 per cent to 33 per cent at both the low and high extremes.
The past decade has seen substantial growth in the suburban areas surrounding Denver, and if Denver had not annexed some 25 square miles of adjacent land during this time, its population would have actually decreased. However, in regard to the industrial base, Denver remains the major distribution center in the area as well as the center for electronics manufacturing and research.




A REVIEW OF PUBLICATIONS
ON
DENVER'S ECONOMY
A review of the extensive literature written on Denver's economic base shows that the overall economy is healthy, although a few warning signals are evident.
The Denver Community Renewal Program states that the Denver SMSA is characterized by a high rate of job creation relative to the rest of the nation. Amenity values have become increasingly significant in making locational decisions in the Denver SMSA. The fastest growing economic sectors as viewed by the report were government, finance, insurance and real estate. The major export activities identified are within the manufacturing sub-sectors such as machinery, electrical products, luggage and rubber manufacturing.
The report goes on to predict a slower employment growth rate within the SMSA over the coming decade, however, the employment growth rate will remain higher than the national rate because of a relatively higher in-migration of both employment sources and population in the region.
Within the City and County of Denver, a healthy and growing economy is foreseen. Employment is expected to grow at the projected national rate to 1980. However, the report cautions that local support is needed to realize projected growth. Concerted efforts are needed to secure additional
14


- 15 -
opportunities for employment, to increase diversity, to provide for greater stability and to ultimately increase the tax base.
According to the report, Denver is expected to have a declining share of the total regional economic activity during the 1970's. Denver's economic growth is expected to be less than the other four counties in the region. By I98O, the Denver SMSA employment will be evenly divided between Denver and the four counties. A tendency is seen of industrial decentralization to the four sub-urban counties, with the exception of population-following activities.
The report identified seven activities as being concentrated in Denver which were expected to become increasingly important sources of employment throughout the I9?0's because of the advantages of the City's central location in a region with a large hinterland. These activities are textiles, apparel and leather manufacturing, transportation by air, wholesale trade, insurance agents, carriers and brokers, finance, insurance and real estate, business and repair services, and professional services.
Activities that were identified as having high growth in employment within the SIViSA are general building contractors, electrical equipment and supplies manufacturing, rubber and plastics products manufacturing, eating and drinking places, banking and credit agencies, medical and other health services, and state and local government.
Following are brief explanations for each activity that is identified as being an increasing source of employment for


-16-
Denver or in which Denver will share a significant amount of the SMSA source of employment:
Mining: Denver is expected to grow as a regional head-
quarters location for mining firms as petroleum and hard rock mining firms continue to concentrate in the City.
Textiles ,_apparel and leather manufacturing: Samsonite
Luggage Company accounts for most of the employment in this sub-sector. The firm is a mainstay of Denver manufacturing, and has recently opened'new facilities in Montbello. The sub-sector will continue to have a high growth potential in Denver where it has historically been highly concentrated, and where it has grown very rapidly in recent years.
Transportation by air: Growth in this sub-sector (also important in SMSA growth potential) will continue to occur at Stapleton International Airport, within Denver. Not only does Stapleton have a high and increasing volume of traffic, but more airline administrative activities are also moving to Denver.
Wholesale trade: Denver has long been a regional wholesaling center, and growth in this sub-sector continues to concentrate in the City because it is a major junction of transportation by air, rail, and highway. The continuing concentration also reflects and reinforces the increasing availability of warehousing facilities.
Insurance agents, carriers and brokers: Denver has long served as a regional center for insurance companies, and it is becoming more so with the rapid SMSA growth in business and population. As with mining, these firms seek the type of


17 -
centrally located office space available in Denver to a greater extent than elsewhere in the region.
Other finance, insurance and real estate: This broadly defined sub-sector includes security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges, and services, and holding and other investment companies. Denver has also become an important regional center for these financial activities, in which the employment concentration in Denver grew phenomenally during the latter half of the 1960's. As business and population grow in the SMSA, Denver will continue to be increasingly important as the dominant financial center because these firms also prefer the central office locations provided by downtown Denver.
Business and repair services: This is another high SMSA growth potential sub-sector that will continue to concentrate mainly in Denver. This is one of Denver's largest economic sub-sectors and the Denver growth rate was very high between 1966 and 1970. These specialized services will continue to seek a central location in Denver in order to be easily accessible to the greatest possible number of businesses.
Professional services; This includes legal services, and engineering, accounting, and other technical professional services. Business and population growth is also stimulating this sub-sector. Most of the high SMSA growth potential will be in Denver, which is increasing its share of SMSA employment as professional service activities seek a central office location within the SMSA such as downtown Denver.
General building contracors: Construction will continue


18
at a high rate throughout the SMSA to accon'modate anticipated influxes in business and population. Commercial construction in downtown Denver, housing construction in southeast and southwest Denver, and industrial and office developments in Montbello, Denver Technological Center, and elsewhere in the City will continue at a high rate through the 1970's.
Electrical equipment and supplies manufacturing: This manufacturing sub-sector is growing very rapidly throughout the SMSA, in part because of a high value to weight ratio, which reduces the importance of shipping costs over long distances, and in part because of the availability of highly skilled labor. It includes the manufacture of sophisticated measuring equipment by a number of firms, including Honeywell and Hathaway Instruments, and the manufacture of communications equipment by Bell Telephone and Western Electric. The IBM electronics plant in Boulder is also included in the subsector .
Rubber and plastics products manufacturing: The Gates Rubber Company, a mainstay of Denver manufacturing, is included in this sub-sector. The four counties are growing rapidly in this sub-sector, so that the increase in potential new employment will be shared proportionately with Denver.
Eating and drinking places : This is one of the single largest employers among sub-sectors in Denver, and it is very fast-growing in both Denver and the four counties, in line v/ith the national growth trend. The four counties' growth is stimulated primarily by rapid population growth in the suburbs. Denvers growth is in part stimulated by the


19
concentration of tourist facilities in the City.
Banking and credit agencies; This sub-sector is growing rapidly in Denver, but is also expanding in the four counties in response to the banking needs of the growing population. Denvers projected high growth reflects its increasing importance as a large regional banking and finance center.
Medical and other health services: Denver has long been a regional medical center with such facilities as the University of Colorado Medical Center, National Jewish Hospital, and Saint Anthony's Hospital. Fitzsimmons Army Hospital is currently the largest facility in the four counties. This > industry will continue to grow in Denver and the four counties
because of a strong national trend toward better health care, and in part because of the rapid suburban population growth coupled with a growing trend toward satellite hospital facilities .
State and local government: Because it is the location of the State Capitol, Denver will experience high growth in State government employment, in line with the national trend toward expanding State government employment. Local government will grow more rapidly in the four counties because of the now larger population base and faster growth rates of suburban municipalities as an aggregate.
In Table I, the Denver Community Renewal Program Report projects and rates all economic sub-sectors in terms of whether they will have a high, medium or low economic growth potential in Denver and the Denver SMSA during the 1970's.
The economic subsectors are also identified as being either


TABLE I
GROWTH POTENTIAL OF ECONOMIC SUB-SECTORS Denver SMSA and Denver City
Economic Sector Revenue Source Denver SMSA Economic Growth Potential
ning Export P'Pedium
ntract Construction
General building contractors Local High
Heavy construction contractors Export Low
Special trade contractors Local Medium
nufacturing Durable Goods
Ordnance & accessories Export Low
Lumber & furniture Export Low
Stone, clay, & glass products Export Medium
Primary metal industries Export Low
Fabricated metal products Export Medium
Machinery, excluding electrical Export High
Electrical equipment & supplies Export High
Transportation equipment Export Low
Other durable goods Export Medium
Nondurable Goods
Food & kindred products Export Low
Textiles, apparel <1 leather Export Low
Printing <£ publishing Local Low
Chemical t allied products Export Low
Rubber & plastics products NEC Export High
Other nondurable goods Local Low


ABLE I
continued
Denver SMSA Economic Growth Potential
Economic Sector
Revenue
Source
ransport, Communication & Utilities Railroad transportation Trucking & warehousing Transportation by air Other transportation Communication
Electric, gas & sanitary services
holesale and Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Dep't stores & mail order houses General mdse., apparel & access's Food stores
Auto, dealers & service stations Eating & drinking places Other retail trade
ervices
Hotels and other lodging places Personal services Business & repair services Amusements incl. motion pictures Medical & other health services Educational services Nonprofit membership organizations Professional services
Export
Export
Export
Local
Local
Local
Local
Local
Local
Local
Local
Local
Local
Export
Local
Local
Local
Local
Export
Local
Local
Low
Medium
High
Low
Medium
Low
Medium
High
Low
Medium
Medium.
High
Medium
High
Medium
High
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
High


BLE I
continued
Economic Sector
nance, Insurance & Real Estate Banking & credit agencies Insur. carriers, agents & brokers Real estate & combination offices Other finance, insur. & real estate
vernment
Federal Government
State and Local Government
Denver SMSA
Revenue Economic Growth
Source Potential
Local Medium
Local Medium
Local Medium
Local Medium
Export Low
Local High
urce: Community Renewal Program


primarily export or local.
- 23 -
For the SMSA growth potential, a sub-secor was given a high growth potential rating if it was primarily export and had a relatively high percentage share of total employment, concentration index, growth rate, and a high projected U. S. growth rate. Conversely, a low level in each measure resulted in a low growth potential rating. Among individual measures, greatest importance was placed on the export factor. Share, concentration and historic growth rates in the SMSA were weighted equally, along with the projected national growth rate .
For the Denver growth potential, the degree to which Denver captured the increase in employment in a particular SMSA sub-sector between 1966 and 1970, and the growth rate in Denver between 1966 and 1970 were assessed first. Then, consideration was given to the size of the sub-sector and the degree to which SMSA employment is concentrated in Denver. Finally, the SMSA growth impact determined in the SMSA grov/th potential was used as the final measure in the study.
The sub-sector economic grov/th potential ratings for Denver v/ere presented in two groups according to whether most of the SMSA growth potential will be located in Denver, or whether the SMSA high growth potential will be split between Denver and the four counties with Denver getting a good average share of the increase.
In conclusion, the Community Renewal Report identifies important implications out of the Denver grov/th potential.
The sixteen sub-sectors in Denver that were determined to


2h -
have medium economic growth potential are scattered throughout the major economic sectors and are exhibiting a mixed pattern. The study seems to ask the question whether the mixed pattern for each economic sub-sector is a sign of expansion, a condition that will exist depending on regional and national sub-sector growth rates, or failure due to intense competition.
The report also expresses concern for the sixteen subsectors that are projected to have a low economic growth potential. Nearly half of the sub-secotrs were concentrated among manufacturing activities. This suggests that future production of durable and non-durable goods will continue at a relatively low level in the City, with a few important exceptions mentioned earlier. In addition, several retail trade sub-sectors will fair poorly in competition with the other four counties in the SMSA.





PART THREE




V


SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF
INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT IN DENVER FOR
DETERMINING DENVER'S ROLE WITHIN THE REGION
AND
ITS DEIRECTION FOR THE FUTURE Methodology
The research presented in the section consists of the analysis of major industrial groups through the application of the shift-share technique. The major industrial groups are Agriculture, Construction, Finance, Government, Manufacturing, Mining, Retail Trade, Selected Services, Transportation and Wholesale Trade. The shift-share analysis is a tool which can be effectively used to factor out the component parts of total regional industrial growth without seriously reducing the inferential attributes of the results. The effectiveness of the shift-share analysis stems directly from those factors selected as causing the components of regional growth. The factors that are used as a complete set of determinants of growth are (1) the overall growth of a national economy; (2) the overall growth of individual industries with respect to the national growth rate; and (3) the overall growth of a regional industry with respect to the national growth rate for that industry.
National Growth. The first factor, national growth, assumes that, all other things being equal, every industry in
- 25


- 26 -
every region will grow at the average national rate for all industries and will proportionately increase its total employment. This factor is computed by determining the percentage increase in total employment in the national economy between the base year and the terminal year, and computing the local increase (or decrease) for this same percentage from the base year.
Industry Mix. The second factor, industrial mix, assumes that the growth rate and direction of a particular industry, whether it is growing faster or slower than the national economy, can be determined and can then be applied to regional growth for differences. This factor is obtained by looking at the percentage increase or decrease in employment in a particular industry on a national level and comparing that figure to the growth rate of the rest of the economy.
Regional Share. The third factor, regional share, assumes that growth of a regions' industry is a function of regional versus national differences within that particular industry. This factor is computed by comparing the percentage increase or decrease in the employment of the particular regional industry to the percentage change in employment in that particular national industry.
In this way the shift-share application to economic base analysis provides a breakdown of the local industrial growth rates and profiles local industries according to thier growth characteristics and potential for influence.
Major Obstacles
The major obstacle in conducting the shift-share analysis


2?
is its requirement for complete and comparable data for the industries of concern. The problem stems from the fact that each of the available sources for data on employment are in one way or another incomplete. I would like to, at this time, briefly describe the sources available for the application of the shift-share analysis and provide an overview of their shortcomings.
The most reliable source for total regional employment is that of the Colorado Division of Employment. (As ultimately reported in Employment and Earnings by the U. S. Department of Commerce.) However, this source does not provide disaggregated data within some of the major industrial groups which are major categories for base industries and are the categories being analyzed by this report.
The County Business Patterns, the most continuous source of information available (now done every year) is limited due to the reporting of only certain industrial classes. In addition, the industrial classes are based on social security data which tend to be overestimated regarding the amount of full time equivalent employment.
A third source, the U. S. Census of Population, provides excellent detailed information in regard to eomployment; but, because of the census being conducted every ten years, this source unfortunately does not provide enough continuity of information to be helpful, relative to the previously mentioned sources.
A fourth source, the U. S. Statistical Abstract, provides a yearly data base on employment and earnings within certain


28
industrial groups. The report also includes other pertinent information for public knowledge. The Abstract is derived in part from both the Census of Industries and the U. S. Census of Population. The Abstract is not complete for all major industrial groups.
Final source, is that of the U. S. Census of Manufacturing, Business, Agriculture, Government, etc. These sources are considered very reliable but are not complete in all the service areas and are missing certain employment statistics.
The research used those service areas of the U. S. Census of Industries (ie. Manufacturing, Business, Agriculture, Government, etc.) that had complete and comparable data with all employment statistics. Those service areas used out of the U. S. Census of Industries were Construction, Government, Manufacturing, Mining, Retail Trade, Selected, Services and Wholesale Trade. Those excluded were Agriculture, Finance and Transportation because of incomplete employment statistics at the national and SMSA level. Agricultural employment statistics were obtained from the U. S. Statistical Abstract and the County Business Patterns. Employment Statistics for the Finance and Transportation industries were obtained from the County Business Patterns.
There are presently two separate procedures possible to use or compile this data in order to conduct a meaningful shift-share analysis. The first approach would be to work from the Colorado Division of Employment figures as a basic employment file and then to develop estimates for certain disaggregated or subclasses of the industrial categories based from the other


29
sources. The second approach would be to conduct the analysis directly from the other sources such as the Censuses of Manufacturing, Business and County Business Patterns and then to ultimately carry the findings to the contrdl totals provided at the aggregate level by the Colorado Division of Employment. Because the shift-share analysis requires more accuracy at the detailed level, it has been decided to pursue the second approach.
Findings
This step in the anlysis consisted of comparing the major industrial groups employment growth in the Denver SMSA with the United States as a whole. The results are shown in Tables 4 through 21 and are graphically represented by their accompanying Charts. The Charts are solely being used for illustrative purposes, signifying trends and patterns from the data provided in the Tables. The Charts aid in visualizing the relationships that exist which may have proven difficult to decipher from the Tables alone.
The Agricultural Industry
In Table 2, the subsector industry, agricultural services, forestry, fisheries and hunting evidenced absolute job growth within the SMSA but declined nationally under "percent change." The employment increase regionally was 93-91% or 663 jobs. At the national level there was a decrease of -13-91% or -1,450,000 jobs .
The results in Table 3 further substantiate the trend seen at both the regional and national level for the subsector agricultural services, forestry, fisheries and hunting. The


TABLE 2
RELATIVE GROWTH OF
AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO
UNITED STATES ECONOMY
1972 as Per Cent of 1967
ricultural ndustries 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment % Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
ricultural ervices, orestry, isheries, nd unting 706 1,369 93.91 10,875,000 9,425,000
Total erage Increase 706 1,369 93.91 93.91 10,875,000 9,425,000




TABLE 3
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF
DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY
AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES USING
UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972

Changes Related to 1967-1972
gricultural Denver SMSA Employment National Industrial Regional Toti
Industries 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chai

gricultural Services, Forestry, Fisheries and
Hunting
706 1,369
-9^ 0
757 61
All
gricultural
Industries ---- -----------
Total 706 1,369
0
757
61




- 3^ -
national growth column exhibited a -9^. The figure means that within the region, jobs should be lost at the same rate as the national growth rate for that industry. The column industrial mix showed 0 growth industrially, or in other words, the agricultural sector stayed the same employment wise industrially in 1967 and 1972.
The regional share component for the agricultural sector showed an employment growth of 757 jobs. From this information it is readily apparent that the Denver region outperformed agricultural employment both nationally and within the industry nationwide. This sector may be presumed to be an important industry for the region.
The Contract Construction Industry
In Table all subsectors evidenced positive absolute job growth as indicated in the columns headed "percent change."
The sector with the strongest job growth were subdividers and developers. Among other sectors, strong growth was exhibited in general building contractors and special trade contractors. Less positive growth was displayed in heavy construction general contractors. It is interesting to note that all sector industries are intrinsically related and dependent on one another for growth. The lead taken by subdividers and developers helped the other sectors.
Three of the four subsector industries, subdividers and developers, general building contractors, and special trade contractors each had increased at a greater proportion within the region than the national per cent increase. To better understand the significance of this finding, one must note that


TABLE 4
RELATIVE GROWTH OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT
COMPARING
DENVER SMSA TO UNITED STATES ECONOMY 1972 as Per Cent of 1967
1967 1972 1967 1972
SMSA SMSA % National National
nstruction Employment Employment Chance Employment Employment
neral
uilding ontractors 5,581 11,519 106.40 938,043 1,149,520
avy
onstruction eneral ontractors 3,657 5,738 56.90 792,926 827,346
ecial
rade ontractors bdividers nd 11,286 21,440 89-97 1,682,767 2,106,549
evelopers 490 1,701 247.14 22,508 62,314
Total erage Increase 21,014 40,398 92.24 3,436,244 4,145,779


0SF ao£ ose af>f os'/ ao; cj~ ^,Qe Q
aoS


- 37 -
the industrial mix component in Table 5 The industrial mix component demonstrates that the sector industry in question is performing better than the average national rate of growth. Three of the four subsector industries just listed as having a positive growth also had a positive industrial mix. These industries may be presumed to be "key industries for the region because they should exert greater influence on the economy due to their brighter prospects for growth. As will be shown later, the region can be expected to move ahead of the nation in the above mentioned sectors.
The heavy construction general contractors industrial subsector grew in absolute terms regionally and nationally, however they were at a rate less than the averages for the industry as a whole both regionally and nationally. In addition, this sector industry also denoted a negative industrial mix component of -596 jobs. Since the national growth and regional share components were positive, this subsector industry presents special problems of choice. The sector industry is not a strong performer overall but is doing well within the Denver region. This industry can be considered a potential key industry depending on the extent to which they can be helped and are desired. It could be argued that since it is not a strong performer industrially, it would be a poor bet for special attention locally; conversely, since the sector is doing well locally, it could be argued that the sector industry should be assisted and encouraged. In Part Four, Economic Opportunites and Obstacles Confronting Denver, this report will attempt to decide what future the heavy


TABLE 5
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
BY
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY USING UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972

Changes Related to 1967-1972
Denver SMSA Emnlovment National Industrial Regional Tot
Dnstruction 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Cha:

eneral
Building
Contractors
eavy
Construetion
Ceneral
Contractors
pecial
Trade
Contractors
ubdividers
^nd
Developers
All
Dnstruetion Industries Total
5,581
3,657
11,286
490
21,01b
11,519 5.738 21,bbo
1,701
40,398
1,152
755
2,331
101
4,339
105 4,680 5,
596 1,922 2,
512 7,311 10,
765 344 1,
0 15,044 19,




- 40
construction general contractors industry should play in Denver.
The Finance Industry
The finance industry as a whole experienced considerable growth between 1967 and 1972. In Table 6, the regional average increase in employment was 39 par cent. The national average increase in employment was 25 per cent or 8,553 and 661,100 jobs respectively. Those subsector industries that exhibited the largest job growth were real estate; security, commodity and services; and, banking.
All subsector industries increased employment between 1967 and 1972. The smallest job growth was seen regionally for insurance carriers. With the exception of the insurance carriers subsector industry, each subsector industry had increased at a greater proportion regionally than the national per cent change figure.
It is of special interest to note that all three subsector industries that displayed the largest job growth (real estatate; security; commodity and services; and banking also revealed the only positive industrial mix components as indicated in Table 7* These three subsector industries are key industries for the region in light of a positive regional share component for the three subsector industries as well. The combination of a positive industrial mix and regional share component indicates that these industries should continue to exert great influence on the Denver economy due to their brighter prospects for growth. As the Denver region expands in population and development, the greater will be the influence of these industries as


TABLE 6
RELATIVE GROWTH OF FINANCE INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT
COMPARING
DENVER SMSA TO UNITED STATES ECONOMY 1972 as Per Cent of 1967
Finance 1967 SMSA Enrol oyment 1972 SMSA Emoloyment % Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment Ch£
iking 5,301 7,412 39.82 852,300 1,092,300 2 f
;dit Agencies 3,092 4,064 31.44 335,000 380,100 i;
;urity, Commodity 'okers & Services 1,024- 1,648 60.94 147,400 202,200 31
;urance Carriers 6,991 7,781 11.30 461,000 551.400 IS
iurance Agents id Brokers vH CO CN- tH 2,188 22.85 244,200 285,900 1*
il Estate 3,926 7,575 92.94 565,500 755,900 3:
;al 22,115 30,668 2,605,900 3,267,000
irage Increase 38.68 21




TABLE 7
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY FINANCE INDUSTRIES USING UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Denver SMSA Emnlovraent National Industrial Regional Total
Finance 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Cham
iking 5,301 7,412 1,3*15 148 618 2,11
idit Agencies 3,092 4,064 784 -368 556 91
:urity, irvices, immodity 'okers 1,024 1,648 260 121 243 6;
>urance irriers 6,991 7,781 1,77*i -40 3 -581 7<
;urance Agents id Brokers 1,781 2,188 *152 -152 107 4(
il Estate 3,926 7,575 996 326 2,327 3,6*
. Finance idustries
>tal 22,118 30,668 2,170 0 6,383 8,5i




- 45 -
well as the entire finance industry.
The national growth component, as shown in Table 7. denotes the extent to which every industry in every region will grow at the average national rate for all industries. While every subsector industry shows a positive national growth component, it is worth while to note the banking and insurance carriers industries. The banking subsector is showing strong growth in all three components, while the insurance carriers subsector is strong nationally relative to other industries but is doing poorly both industrially and regionally.
The industrial mix component indicates the extent to which the industry in question is performing better than the average national rate of growth. Those industries featuring a negative industrial mix component are credit agencies, insurance carriers, and insurance agents and brokers. Of those subsector industries showing a negative industrial mix, only the insurance carrier industry can be reasonably assumed to be decreasing in importance in the Denver region. The insurance carrier industry is the only subsector industry with both a negative industrial mix and regional share component. This combination suggests a decline in the industry regionally but not nationally.
The remaining subsector industries all had a negative industrial mix component with positive regional share and national growth components. This connotes growth rates above the national economy on a regional scale but not on a national scale. These industries should be evaluated very carefully because they have potential for exerting a positive influence on the Denver regional economy since they are doing well in the


- 46
region but poorly overall. Specific criteria for advantages to the Denver region from these industries will be looked at later in Part 4, Economic Opportunities and Obstacles Confronting the Denver Region.
The Government Industry
Employment in the government industry, particularly the Federal civilian subsector, remained steady with a very slight increase both regionally and nationally for the years 1967-1972. As depicted in Table 8, the per cent change for the Denver S,SA was 5 per cent or an increase of only 1,187 jobs. The national per cent change was an increase of less than one-tenth of one per cent, or 2,000 between the years 1967-1972.
It is interesting to note that the region increased at a greater proportion than the national average. This would suggest that the region is becoming increasingly important, indicating more jobs in the Federal civilian subsector of government industrial employment.
The national growth component, as shown in Table 9. depicts a small but positive figure for employment nationally. The slight, increase is attributable to the small per cent change increase seen for national employment between 1967 and 1972.
The regional share component of growth exhibited the heaviest gains in employment. The regional share component indicates the extent to which an industry in the Denver region is out performing that same industry nationwide. It may also be used as an indicator of the extent to which an industry is affected by local conditions. The Federal civilian subsector


Government
ederal
Civilian
otal
TABLE 8
RELATIVE GROWTH OF
GOVERNMENT INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO
UNITED STATES ECONOMY
1972 as Per Cent of 1967
1967 1972 1967 1972
SMSA SMSA at / National National
Employment Employment Change Employment Employment
26,000 27,187 ^.57 2,993,000 2,995,000
26,000 26,187 2,993,000 2,995,000
verage Increase
^57




TABLE 9
Government
;deral
Givilian
.1
Government
industries
?otal
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF OF
DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY
GOVERNMENT INDUSTRIES USING
UNITED STATES AS
COMPARISON ECONOMY
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Denver SKSA Emnloyment National Industrial Regional Tot;
1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chat
26,000 27,187 18 0 1,170 i,:
26,000 27,107 18 0 1,170 1,3


loco o icoo o-ooO JOOO t/ooo sSoo
y

t'Lbi'/Vbl (li UJlr'lJ?/ S33WOfTfD OQO


- 51 -
industry evidenced a positive regional share component of growth of 1,170 jobs. This clearly shows the importance of Federal civilian jobs in the Denver region and its impact exerted on the regional economy. There are a few factors that have led to the importance of government industry in the Denver region. These and other factors will be discussed later in Part k.
The Manufacturing Industry
In Table 10, one subsector, lumber and wood products, notably evidenced absolute job growth as indicated in the columns headed per cent change. Among other subsectors, strong growth was seen in rubber and miscellaneous plastic products*: fabricated metal products, furniture and fixtures: and apparel and other textiles. Other positive growth trends were in printing and publishing; and stone, clay and glass products.
It is of special interest to note that of all industries just mentioned, each had increased at a greater proportion within the region than the national per cent change. To better understand the significance of this finding, one must note the industrial mix component (in Table 11) indicates that the industry in question is performing better than the average national rate of growth. Of those industries just listed as having a positive growth, all evidenced a positive industrial mix. These industries may be presumed to be primary "key industries" for the region because they should exert greater
^Between 1967 and 1972, the rubber, miscellaneous plastic products and petroleum and coal products industries became new to the region. Since no data for these industries were provided, their relationships will be positively skewed (i.e. per cent increase too large, not shown on graph).


TABLE 10
RELATIVE GROWTH OF MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO UNITED STATES ECONOMY
1972 as Per Cent of 1967
anufacturina 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment
ood and Kindred Products 12,200 14,100
pparel and Other Textiles 600 2,300
umber and Wood Products 600 1,600
urniture and Fixtures 1,100 1,800
aperboara Containers & Boxes 1,200 1,600
rinting and Publishing 6,200 7,600
% Chanae 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
15.57 1,725,900 1,569,400
283.33 1,372,900 1,368,300
166.67 561,700 691,000
63.63 430,000 461,600
33-33 670,700 633,400
22.58 1,052,100 1,056,100


1BLE 10 continued
inufacturing 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment ci / Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
lemical and lllied Prod. 1,300 1,7 00 30.77 982,700 836,500
stroleum and Eoal Prod. 0 500 0 210,700 139,500
Abber and Wise Plastic Prod. 0 5,600 0 531,000 617,700
tone, Clay and Hass Prod. 3,4oo. 4,300 26.47 620,600 623,200
ibricated Metal roducts 4,300 10,700 148,84 1,375,100 1,493,300
ichinery except Electrical 9,200 11,400 23.91 1,929,400 1,827,700
Lectric & Elec. Equipment 3,100 4,000 29.03 1,980,600 1,622,200
-ansportation Equipment 9,200 11,300 22,33 1,935,500 1,719,000
Lsc Manufact. [ndustry 1,700 2,400 41.18 831,600 446,100
)tal 54,100 80,900 16,210,500 15,145,000
ferage Increase 49.54


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TABLE 11
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY USING TOUTED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Denver SMSA Smolovment National Industrial Regional Tota
nufactuning 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chan.
Dd & Kindred roducts 12,200 14,100 -802 -296 2,998 1.9'
parel and ther textile roducts 600 2,300 - 39 37 1,702 1.7'
fiber and Wood roducts 600 1,600 -39 178 862 1,0(
rniture and Lxtures 1,100 1,800 -72 153 619 7'
perboard Dntainers and Dxes 1,200 1,600 -79 12 467 4<
smical and Llied Products 1,300 1,700 -85 -108 593 4<
troleum and :>al Products 0 500 0 0 500 5<


3LE 11 continued
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Denver SMSA Employment National Industrial Regional Totai
lufacturing 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chans
In ting and .iblishing 6,200 1,600 -407 431 1,376 1,4<
eber and Lsc. Plastic roducts 0 5,600 0 0 5,600 5,6<
me, Clay id Glass roduc ts 3,400 4,300 -223 238 886 9<
iricated stal roducts 4,300 10,700 -283 652 6,030 6,4(
^hinery ccept Leetrical 9,200 11,400 -604 120 2,685 2,2(
ictric and Lee tronic juipment 3,ioo 4,000 -204 -357 1,461 9(
msportation juipment 9,200 11,300 -604 -425 3.130 2,1(
sc Man. Ind. 1,700 2,400 -112 -676 1,488 7C
L Kan. Ind.
ital 54,100 80,900 -3,544 0 30,356 26,8C


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- 58 -
influence on the economy due to their brighter prospects for growth. These industries seem to have caught up to the nation and are now moving ahead. It must also be noted that two industries -- rubber, miscellaneous plastic products and petroleum and coal products -- have been new to the region since 1967. Both show tremendous growth potential which is clearly apparent in Table 10 under "per cent change."
The regional share component, as shown in Table 11, indicates the extent to which an industry in the Denver region is out-performing that same industry nationwide. It may also be used as an indicator of the extent to which an industry is affected by local conditions. While all industries do show a positive regional share component, it is worthwhile to note the transportation equipment, food and kindred products and the miscellaneous manufacturing industries. All are showing strong negative national growth components as well as strong negative industrial mix components. Their influence on the future of the regional economy can be expected to decline. "Other industries showing significant negative trends are the electric and electronic equipment and machinery except electrical.
A few interesting comparisons can be made from Table 10, two are particularly striking. Note that the fabricated metal products and the rubber, miscellaneous plastic products industries boomed with employment gains of 6,A00 and 5600 jobs respectively. The majority of this grov/th was attributable to the regional share component. Other sizeable gains within the region were realized in machinery except electrical, transportation equipment, food and kindred products, apparel and other


- 59
textiles, and printing and publishing.
It is important to note that the manufacturing industrys' total employment since 1967 had increased from 5^*100 to 80,900, an increase of 26,800 jobs. Comparing the regional share and the national growth components it is clearly seen that the Denver region had a prosperous period. And, since the industrial mix component of growth was negative, the region had a much better performance than the nation overall. The results clearly have shown that the Denver region grew rapidly for the years 1967 through 1972 in manufacturing employment.
Using the data provided in the tables and charts, two patterns of growth emerged -- those industries indicating growth rates above the national economy on both a national and regional scale and those industries indicating growth rates above the national economy on a regional scale but negatively on a national scale.
Industries that had a positive industrial mix component are clearly key industries. These industries are lumber and wood products, furniture and fixtures, printing and publishing, rubber, miscellaneous plastic products, stone, clay and glass products, and fabricated metal products. It can be reasonably assumed that these industries are exerting positive influences on the economy and should continue to grow.
The remainder of the industries were those that had a positive regional share component and a negative industrial mix. This indicates growth rates above the national economy on a regional scale but not on a national scale. These industries are food and kindred products, apparel and other textile


- 6o
products, paperboard containers and boxes, chemical and allied products, petroleum and coal products, machinery except electrical, electric and electronic equipment, transportation equipment, and finally, miscellaneous manufacturing industries. These industries present special problems of choice, since they are not strong performers overall but are doing well in the Denver region. These industries can be considered to be potential key industries depending on the extent to which they can be helped and are desired. It could be argued that since they are not strong performers nationally, they would be poor bets for special attention locally; conversely, since they are doing well locally, it could be argued that they should be assisted and encouraged. In Part this report will attempt to decide what future these industries should play in the Denver region.
The Mineral Industry
As Table 12 depicts, the Mineral Industries encountered heavy losses in employment regionally and only a slight gain in employment nationally. The regional average per cent change was -3A per cent or a loss of 1,600 jobs from 196? to 1972.
The national average per cent change was a modest 5 per' cent gain or approximately 27,BOO jobs.
As expected in the growth components of employment in Table 13, the national growth component of growth reflected a positive figure that is derivitive of the national average per cent increase and the regional share component of growth displayed a negative figure that is related to the regional average per cent decrease in employment. The national growth component exhibited an employment gain of 230 jobs and the


Mineral
ineral
Industries
otal
Average
Increase
TABLE 12
RELATIVE GROWTH OF
MINERAL INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO
UNITED STATES ECONOMY
1972 as Per Cent of 196?
1967 1972 1967 1972
SMSA SMSA /o National National
Emolovment Emolovment Change Emolovment Emolovment
4, 700 3,100 -34.04 567,300 595,100
4,700 3,100 -34.64 567,300 595,100




TABLE 13
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF
DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY
MINERAL INDUSTRIES USING
UNITED STATES AS
COMPARISION ECONOMY
1967-1972
Changes Related to 1967-1972
istruction Denver SMSA Employment 1967 1972 National Growth Industrial Mix Regional Share Totai Chan^
leral idustries ^,700 3.100 230 0 -1,830 -1,6(
L




- 65 -
regional share component displayed an employment loss of -1,830 jobs. This information in itself does not conclusively give an indication of decline in the mineral subsector because the industrial mix component could not be computed with one variable (subsector). It can be reasonably assumed, however, that the region is declining compared to the other regions in the nation. Other factors must be considered to fully take into account the effect of this subsector industry and the major industrial category as a whole. In Part 4, these and other concerns will be discussed in order to fully understand the ramifications of this industry.
The Retail Trade Industry
In Table 1^4- all subsector industries evidenced absolute job growth. Five subsector industries experienced the largest absolute employment growth as denoted in the columns headed per cent change. These industries were eating and drinking; gasoline and service stations; miscellaneous retail, furniture, home furnishings and equipment; and, apparels and accessories. The retail trade industry as a whole displayed a job growth of 35 per cent regionally and 21 per cent nationally or 22,650 and 1,978,989 jobs respectively.
Except for the subsector industry drug and proprietary, every industry had increased at a greater proportion v/ithin the region than the national per cent change. To further substantiate this claim, one can note the regional share component in Table 15 for the subsector industry, drug and proprietary in relation to the other subsector industries.
Those industries identified as key industries for the


TABLE 14
RELATIVE GROWTH OF RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT ,
COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO UNITED STATES ECONOMY
1972 as Per
2tail Trade 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment
wilding Materials, iardv;are and i^arm Equipment 2,264 3,020
sneral Merchandise 11,956 14,231
5od Stores 7,918 10,921
atomobile Dealers 6,299 7,726
isoline and Service Stations 3,561 5,1^5
Dparel and Accessories 3,^31 4,898
Arniture, Home urnishings & Equipment 2,233 3,385
Cent of 1967
of. t Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment Cl
33.39 406,134 *!33,545 (
19.03 1,646,549 1,948,231 11
37.93 1,333,369 1,722,486 1<
22.65 906,594 1,073,009 If
-p- Sr 00 575,207 747,668 2(
42.76 658,676 800,394 21
51.59 406,221 474,594 1(


ABLE 14 continued
etail Trade 1967 SMSA Emoloyment 1972 SMSA Emoloyment 7 Change 1967 National Emoloyment 1972 National Emoloyment
ating and Drinking 16,850 25,196 49-53 2,032,631 2,634,457
rug and Proprietary 2,964 3,U9 5.23 409,209 453,928
iscellaneous Retail 4,254 6,389 50.19 648,782 794,438
on-Store Retail 2,106 2,456 16.62 146,144 276,855
otal 63,836 86,11-86 9,380,616 11,359,605
verage
Increase
35-48




TABLE 15
SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY RETAIL TRADE INDUSTRIES UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972
________Chages Related to 1967-1972
Denver SMSA Envoi ovment National Industrial Regional Tota
tail Trade 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chan
ilding Mat. ardware and 2,2 66- 3,020 678 -325 603 75
arm Equipment
neral Kerch. 6,956 16,231 2,523 -332 CO 2,27
od Stores 7,913 10,921 1,671 -166 1,679 3,00
to Dealers 6,299 7,726 1,329 -173 270 1,62
s & Serv. Sta, 3,561 5,165 751 316 516 1,58
parel & Access . 3,631 6,898 726 16 729 1,66
rn ., Home Furn nd Equipment ' 2,233 3,385 671 -95 776 1,15
ting and Drink . 16,850 25.196 3,555 1,636 3.357 8,36
ug & Propriet. 2,966 3,U9 625 -301 -169 15
sc Retail 6,256 6,389 898 57 1,180 2,13
n-Store Ret. 2,106 2,6 56 666 -182 87 351
1 Retail Trade
otal 63,336 86,686 13,669 0 9,180 22,65'




- 71
region because of their brighter prospects for growth and because of positive growth in all three components (national growth, industrial mix and regional share) are gasoline and service stations; apparels and accessories; eating and drinking and miscellaneous retail. The eating and drinking subsector industry displayed the largest aboslute job growth both regionally and nationally. It also revealed the most promising of all the key industries. Reasons for this will be explained in Part 4.
It is interesting to note that all subsector industries experienced positive employment growth in the national growth component as illustrated in Table 15* This finding would suggest that the retail trade industry is growing nationally relative to all other major industrial categories and that the retail trade industry is experiencing new business configurations and decreasing markets regionally. In addition, the retail trade industry is adjusting internally to adapt to the changes in the regional economy. Reasons for this will be explained in Part 4.
The regional share component, as shown in Table 15* indicates the extent to which an industry in the Denver region is out performing that same industry nationwide. It may also be used as an indicator of the extent to which an industry is affected by local conditions. As mentioned previously, all subsector industries except drug and proprietary, showed a positive regional share component. In addition to having a negative regional share component, the drug and proprietary subsector industry also had a negative industrial mix component.


- 72 -
It can be reasonably assumed that this subsector industry will continue to decrease in employment in the region. There seems to be a basic change in the v/ay this subsector industry is acting and the reasons for this will be apparent in Part U-.
The remainder of the subsector industries were those that had positive regional share and national growth components and a negative industrial mix. This indicates growth rates above the national economy on a regional scale but not on a national scale. These subsector industries are building materials, hardware, and farm equipment; general merchandise; food stores; automotive dealers; furniture, home furnishings and equipment; and, non-store retailers. As was the case in the other major industrial categories that pertained to a negative industrial mix component, these subsector industries present special problems of choice, since they are not strong performers overall but are doing well within the Denver region. These industires can be considered to be potential key industries depending on the extent to which they can be helped and desired. It could be argued that since they are not strong performers nationally, they would be poor bets for special attention locally; conversely, since they are doing well locally, it could be argued that they should be assisted and encouraged. An analysis of their disirability in region will be discussed in the next part of this report.
The Selected Services Industry
As portrayed in Table 16, the selected services industry grew in terms of employment in both the regional and national markets. Regionally, the industry grew 52 per cent; nationaly,


TABLE 16
RELATIVE GROWTH OF SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT
COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO
UNITED STATES ECONOMY 1972 as Per Cent of 1967
Selected Services 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment of / Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
Dtels and Lodging A, 948 6,492 31.20 6l6,841 726,577
ersonal Services 6,902 8,114 17.56 829,763 976,709
isc Business Services 9,132 16,900 85.06 1,316,192 1,759,438
ato Repair 2,720 4,174 53 46 316,209 372,498
isc Repair Services 1,390 1.75^ 26.19 179,111 206,842
nusement & Recreation 3,068 5,248 71.06 486,840 653,047
Dtal 28,160 42,682 3,744,956 4,715,111
/erage Increase 51.57


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- 75 -
the increase was 26 per cent as indicated in the columns headed per cent change. All subsector industries sustained absolute job growth. The most significant of the subsectors were miscellaneous business services; automotive repair; and, amusement and recreation. It is interesting to note that all subsector industries, except for personal services, had increased at a greater proportion within the region than the national per cent increase.
This major industrial category is unique relative to the other major industrial groups in that only two of the six subsector industries revealed a positive industrial mix component (as shown in Table 1?), although all subsector industries experienced absolute job growth. As mentioned previously, the industrial mix component indicates that the industry in question is performing better than the average national rate of growth. The two industries that featured a positive industrial mix component were miscellaneous business services and amusement and recreation. These two subsector industries may be presumed to be primary key industries for the region because they should exert greater influence on the economy due to their brighter prospects for growth. Also, these two industries had positive growth in all three components of growth. Many forces are at work to augment these two subsectors' growth in the region so that they will move ahead of the same subsectors nationally. Part 4 will explain in greater detail.
The growth decrease in the industrial mix component was in personal services. In addition, the personal services


TABLE 17
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES USING UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Selected Denver SMSA Emnlovment National Industrial Regional To ta
Services 1967~ 1972 Growth Mix Share Chan
tels and odging 4,948 6,492 1,282 -402 664 1,54
rsonal ervices 6,902 8,114 CO CO 0- rd -566 - 10 1,21
sc Business ervices 9,132 16,900 2,366 710 4,692 7,76
to Repair 2,720 4,174 705 - 48 798 1,45
sc Repair ervices 1,390 1,75*1 360 -145 149 36
usement & ecreation 3,068 5,248 795 252 1,133 2,18
1 Selected ervice Ind.
otal 28,160 42,682 7,296 0 7,226 14,52


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- 70 -
subsector industry was the only subsector that experienced a negative regional share component of employment. This subsector industry is clearly an endangered industry and will diminish in importance and impact on the Denver regional economy. However, this subsector industry is growing nationally as evidenced by the positive national growth component in employment.
All subsector industries demonstrated positive national growth as depicted in the national growth component. This suggests that all subsector industries, with the possible exception of the personal services industry, may exert a positive impact on the regional economy in the future. This is further substantiated when one looks at the regional share component. All industries, except for personal services industry, displayed a positive regional share component of growth. These remaining subsector industries, however, also had a negative industrial mix component of growth. This indicates growth rates above the national economy on a regional scale but not on a national scale. These subsector industries are hotels and lodging; automotive repair; and, miscellaneous repair services. These subsector industries can be considered potential key industries depending on the extent to v/hich they can be helped and are desired. Many factors come into play in deciding on a subsectors' viability in the Denver region. These factors will be discussed later in the report in Part
The Transportation Industry
As depicted in Table 18, the transportation industry experienced moderate growth between 1967 and 1972 with each


TABLE 18
RELATIVE GROWTH Ox7 TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRIES EMPLOYMENT
COMPARING DENVER SMSA TO UNITED STATES ECONOMY
1972 as Per Cent of 1967
ransportation 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment e/ 7 Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
rucking and Warehousing 8,438 8,868 5.10 991,900 1,073.500
ransportation By Air 5,337 6,755 26.57 286,300 339,100
ommunication 8,342 11,488 37.71 963,000 1,149,200
lectric, Gas and Sanitary Service 4,128 4,656 12.79 632,100 699,800
'otal 26,245 31,767 2,873,300 3,261,600
verage Increase
21 .04


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81
subsector industry gaining employment. Employment within the transportation industry increased 14 per cent or 388,300 jobs nationally and 21 per cent or 5522 regionally. Two subsector industries exhibited employment gains above the regional and national average per cent change. These subsector industries were transportation by air (27 per cent and 18 per cent respectively) and communication (38 per cent and 19 per cent respectively). The tv/o remaining subsectors, trucking and warehousing; and electric, gas and sanitary service, revealed employment gains that were positive although much lower than the regional and national average per cent change. The industrial subsectors with the largest and smallest employment gains were communication, trucking and warehousing respectively.
The Table also revealed that the transportation industry increased employment at a greater proportion within the region than the average national per cent change figure.
Three of the four industrial subsectors also had increased at a greater proportion regionally than nationally. Only one subsector, trucking and warehousing, had a greater increase nationally.
The growth components contained in Table 19 revealed that the two industrial subsectors with the largest gains in employment, transportation by air and communication, were also the only two industries v/ith positive growth in all three components of growth -- national growth, industrial mix and regional share. Because of the positive industrial mix combined with favorable national growth and regional share


TABLE 19
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
BY
TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRIES USING UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Denver SMSA Emnlovment National Industrial Regional Tota.
msoortation 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chan,
jcking and irehousing 8, 438 8,868 1,140 -446 -264 43<
msportation { Air 5,337 6,755 721 263 434 1,411
nmunication 8,342 11,488 1,127 486 1,532 3,14<
sctric, Gas id Sanitary ^rvice 4,128 4,656 558 -116 86 521
L ransportation idustries
ital 26,245 31,767 3,546 0 1,976 5,522


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- 84 -
components, these two subsectors can be viewed as key industries. Key industries are identified as those industries with favorable economic impact on the Denver regional economy.
The national growth component, an indication of the extent to which an industry is out performing all industries nationwide and how industries nationally affect industrial employment, proved favorable for all industrial subsectors. Interestingly, the largest national growth component gain was seen in the trucking and warehousing industry. The trucking and warehousing industry experienced the smaller employment gain of the four subsectors and was the only subsector with a larger proportional increase nationally than regionally.
The industrial mix component evidenced a loss of employment for two industrial subsectors. These were trucking and warehousing; and, electrical, gas and sanitary service. These two subsectors were also below the average per cent change for national and regional employment. The industrial mix component indicates if the industry in question is performing better than the average national rate of growth.
The regional share component, as shown in Table 19, denotes the extent to which an industry in the Denver region is out performing that same industry nationwide. Only one industrial subsector, trucking and warehousing, encountered a negative regional share component (-264). This subsector was the only industry with at least two negative components of growth. The other negative component was the industrial mix component of -446. This depicts a strong and continuing decline in importance in both the Denver region and for the trucking and the


TABLE 20
RELATIVE GROWTH OF WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT
COMPARING
DENVER SMSA TO UNITED STATES ECONOMY 1972 as Per Cent of 1967
'/Wholesale Trade 1967 SMSA Employment 1972 SMSA Employment of' 7a Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
otor Vehicles,Auto Parts and Supplies 3,876 4,529 16.85 341,063 391,849
urniture and Horae Furnishings 1,160 1,215 6.58 83,928 96,677
umber and Other Construction Materials 1,329 2,392 79.98 152,564 174,195
porting, Recreation Photo, Hobby, Toys Supplies 885 1,126 27.23 66,325 85,312
etals and Minerals 1,140 832 -27.02 128,418 126,530
lectric Goods 2,530 2,999 18.54 226,928 252,931
ardv/are, Plumbing Heating Ewuipment and Supplies 1,219 1,603 31.50 163,272 175,^53
achinery, Equipment and Supplies 6,830 8,711 27.5^ 649,692 725,236


'ABLE 20 continued
Wholesale Trade 1967 SMS A Employment 1972 SMSA Employment c* 7 Change 1967 National Employment 1972 National Employment
aper and Paper Products 766 1,041 35.90 128,955 130,498
>rugs, Drug Proprietaries and Druggists Sundries 696 82 6 18.68 90,892 87,623
roceries and Related Products 3,688 4,497 21.94 534,900 505,289
'arm Products 291 325 11.68 107.084 117,784
hemicals and Allied Products 638 860 34.80 90,806 99,510
etroleum and Petroleum Products 954 1,011 5.97 187,434 193,885
Seer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverages 622 748 20.26 100,771 110,816
'otal Average
Increase "267604 32,715 222.97 3,053,032 3,358,588


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88
warehousing operations as a whole. However, national demands will allow the subsector industry to operate profitably. A later discussion in Part 4 will address these considerations.
In conclusion, two of the three subsector industries were identified as key induotires and another as a declining entity. The fourth and final industrial subsector, electric, gas and sanitary service, can be considered a potential key industry depending on the extent to which they are desired and can be helped. This subsector incorporates a negative industrial mix with a positive national growth and regional share component. The industry is doing well locally; but may be subject to negative national trends. Other factors will be studied and are discussed in Part 4 to determine this subsectors' viability in the Denver area.
The Wholesale Trade Industry
As shown in Table 20, the transportation industry displayed a moderate increase in employment between the years of 1967-1972. The regional average per cent change was 23 per cent or 6,111 jobs and the national average change was 10 per cent or 305*556 jobs. All but tv/o industrial subsectors experienced an increase in employment both regionally and nationally. The two subsector industries with losses were metals and minerals; and drugs, drug proprietaries, and druggists sundries. The metals and minerals industrial subsector which was hardest hit, underwent a regional loss in employment of 308 jobs or 27 per cent and a national loss of 1,888 jobs or 1 per cent. The second subsector, drugs, drug proprietaries and druggists sundries, suffered a national


- 89 -
employment loss of 3269 jobs or ^ per cent. In contrast, the subsector experienced a gain in employment at the regional level. The two subsectors with the largest gains in employment were lumber and other construction materials; and, sporting, recreation, photographic, hobby, toys and supplies. The subsector with the largest absolute increase was machinery equipment and supplies.
It is of special interest to note that all except for three subsector industries, all had increase employment at a greater proportion within the region than the national per cent change figure. The three industries were furniture and home furnishings; sporting, recreational, photographic, hobby, toys and supplies; and metals and minerals.
Table 21, illustrates the outcome of the shift-share techniques in which employment losses and gains were attributed to the three components of growth -- national growth, industrial mix and regional share. The national growth component gives an indication of the extent to which an industry is out performing all industries nationwide. It is also an indicator of how national conditions affect industries locally. The industrial mix component denotes how an industry in question is performing relative to the average national rate of growth. The regional share component signifies the extent to which an industry in the Denver region is out performing that same industry nationwide.
There were six industrial subsectors that exhibited a favorable growth in all three components. These were motor vehicles, auto parts and supplies; lumber and other construction materials; electric goods; machinery, equipment and aupplies;


TABLE 21
SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF DENVER EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY WHOLESALE TRADE USING UNITED STATES AS COMPARISON ECONOMY
1967-1972
Changes Related to 1967-1972
Wholesale Denver SMSA Employment National Industrial Regional Tota
Trade 1967 1972 Growth Mix Share Chan
tor Vehicles uto Parts and upplies 3,876 ^,529 388 189 76 65
rniture and ome Furnishings 1,140 1,215 114 59 -98 7
mber and Other onstruetion aterials 1,329 2,392 133 99 831 1,06
orting,Photo, ecreational, obby, Toys, and upplies 885 1,126 89 165 -12 24
tals & Minerals xcept Petroleum 1,140 832 114 -131 -291 -30
ectric Goods 2,530 2,999 253 37 179 46
rdware,Plumbing eating Equip, nd Supplies 1,219 1,603 122 -31 293 38


IBLE 21
continued
Wholesale Denver SMSA Employment
Trade 196? 1972
ichinery.Equip. md Supplies 6,830 8,7U
iper, Paper Products 766 l,Okl
mgs, Drug Proprietaries & )ruggists >undries 696 826
'oceries & elated Prod. 3,688 ^97
irm Products, Jaw Materials 291 325
lemicals & allied Products 638 860
jtroleum and 3etro Products 95k 1,011
:er, Wine Dist. ilcholic Beverage 622 7^8
.1 Wholesale
?rade Total 26,60k 32,715
Changes Related to 1967-1972
National Growth Industrial Mix Regional Share
68k 111 1,087
77 -67 266
70 -95 155
369 -22 ^62
29 1 5
6k - 3 161
95 -63 2k
62 0 6k
2,663 0 3, kk8