MARKET ANALYSIS for a
Regional Shopping Center in the South Aurora and Adjacent Arapahoe County Area
Market Analysis for a Regional Shopping Center in the South Aurora and Adjacent Arapahoe County Area
Masters Thesis Submitted by Eve R. Pines
Department of Urban/Regional Planning and Community Development College of Environmental Design University of Colorado at Denver
April 25, 1984
Table of Contents
Denver Metropolitan Region Growth Trends 6
Growth Trends in the Study Area 15
Population Characteristics 33
Income and Expenditure Patterns 35
Summary of Competition 37
I. Regional Shopping Centers 37
II. Existing Retail Competition in
Immediate Site Vicinity 39
III. Proposed Retail Competition in
Immediate Site Vicinity 51
Regional Shopping Center Demand Methodology 55
Potential Regional Shopping Center Sites 58
Estimated Retail Space Demands 63
I am most grateful to the Aurora Planning Department for professional and personal encouragement and support from 1981 to 1983. My sincere thanks go to Nicki Stoner, Director of Long Range Planning for the City of Aurora, for encouraging my research and for being a supportive friend as well as a caring and dedicated employer and planner. Staff members of the Aurora Planning Department who provided special assistance with my research included Frank Mizner, Marilyn Cross, Forrest Cason, Peter Grosshuesch, and Jim Jones. Chuck Donnelly, of the Arapahoe County Planning Department, was also extremely cooperative in providing access to Arapahoe County data.
I extend my additional thanks to Daniel M. Conway, Director of Economics for THK Associates, Inc., for teaching me the basic techniques of market analysis, for encouraging my education as a planner, and for his input to my data collection for this report.
Roger S. Miller's assistance with the graphic presentation of this report and his encouragement of my efforts in working on this project were sincerely appreciated. I also thank Rosemary Brown for her excellent typing of the final report.
Eve R. Pines
April 15, 1984
The southeast quadrant of the City of Aurora and the adjacent protion of unincorporated Arapahoe County, Colorado, will experience rapid population growth during the next decade. It is anticipated that this growth will justify the development of a new shopping center of a regional scale to serve this area.
This study quantifies the existing and projected population of the southeast Aurora/Arapahoe County area, demonstrates projected support for a regional shopping center based on comparison of supply and demand factors, and makes a recommendation regarding potential sites for such a center.
The study area defined in this study is bounded by East Jewell Avenue to the north, 1-225 and 1-25 to the west, the Arapahoe/Douglas County line to the south, and Gun Club Road to the east. The portion of the study area north of Belleview Avenue and east of Parker Road, is within the existing Aurora city limits. The portion south of Belleview Avenue, and the portion east of Gun Club Road are in unincorporated Arapahoe County. The Denver Tech Center area, north of Belleview Avenue and east of 1-25, is within the Denver city limits.
The demand for retail space is a function of projected household growth, income levels, existing and proposed competition, and the access and
locational features of the site location. Typical characteristics of regional shopping canters are as follows:
Shopping Center Characteristics
Regional Center Super fiegicnal Center
1. Site Area 35-55 acres 50-125 acres
2. Gross Leasable Area 300-750,000 s.f. 750-1,250,000 s.f.
3. Full Line Dept. Store 1-2 3 or more
*4. Trade Area 5 mile radius or 8-10 mile radius or
10-15 min. drive 15-20 min. drive
*5. Support Population 75,000-100.000 100,000-150,000
Size of trade area is also influenced by access of site, competition, etc. Source: Urban Land Institute, Shopping Center Development Handbook.
Washington, D.C., 1977.
This study was initiated as a work-related assignment undertaken by Eve Pines as City Planner II for the City of Aurora in 1982. The assignment was to do brief research regarding the market feasibility of a regional mall in the Parker Road area. This research formed the basis for selecting a thesis topic, and the subsequent extensive research conducted for thesis purposes was made available to the Aurora Planning Department for their use although it was not part of the work-related assignment. This study was completed in 1984, and all the data in the study is valid for 1982 when the research was undertaken.
The market analysis technique applied in this study is loosely based on a methodology used by the Economics Department of THK Associates, under the direction of Daniel M. Conway, where Eve Pines was employed as an economist from 1978 to 1981.
This study was conducted as a general research project and has not been used, to the best of the researcher's knowledge, to predict the feasibility of any actual specific developments.
Denver Metropolitan Region
North Scale in Miles
Penver Metropolitan .Region ...Qroyth Trend?*
The demand for commercial real estate development in a given region is a function of employment growth, which in turn generates population growth in the region.
The southeastern quadrant of Aurora and the adjacent sector of unincorporated Arapahoe County are components of the Denver Metropolitan region. For the purpose of studying growth trends, the metropolitan region can be defined as the Denver Labor Market Area, including the following counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin, and Jefferson. Growth in the regional economy provides the impetus for population growth in the sections of the metropolitan region, such as the study area, which have vacant land suitable for residential development.
Since growth in the study area is dependent on a healthy overall regional economy, it is critical to examine employment and population growth trends on a regional basis. Table 1 shows historic employment trends in the Denver Labor Market Area for the period 1960 to 1981. Resident employment refers to workers who reside and are employed in the metropolitan region. Non-resident
*The tables and text in this chapter can also be found in the following publication, for which research was conducted simultaneously with thesis research: Pines, Eve, "Economic and Demographic Profile of Aurora" (Aurora, Colorado, City of Aurora Planning Department, August, 1982), pp. 17-21 in Appendix.
IN DENVER METROPOLITAN REGION1 1960-1981
AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE
YEAR RESIDENT1 EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATED NON-RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER PERCENT GROWTH RATE
1960 356,200 12,900 369,100
1970 516,800 18,700 535,500 16,600 3.8%
1971 543,900 19,700 563,600 28,100 5.3%
1972 595,800 21,600 617,400 53,800 9.6%
1973 636,000 23,100 659,100 41,700 6.8%
1974 647,100 23,500 670,600 11,500 1.7%
1975 643,400 23,300 666,700 -3,900 -0.6%
1976 664,900 24,100 689,000 23,300 3.3%
1977 705,500 25,600 731,100 42,100 6.1%
1978 769,200 27,900 797,100 66,000 9.0%
1979 812,500 29,500 842,000 44,900 5.6%
1980 834,500 30,300 864,800 22,800 2.7%
1981 857,100 31,100 888,200 23,400 2.7%
Change 1960-81 500,900 18,200 519,100 24,700 4.3%
Change 1971-81 313,200 11,400 324,600 32,500 4.7%
Notes: "'"Denver Metropolitan Region includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin and Jefferson Counties.
Assumes a commuter factor of 3.5%, based on historic comparison of resident and jobs by place of work for nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
Source of Basic Data: Colorado Division of Employment and Training,
"Denver-Boulder IMA 1/Resident Labor Force" series.
employment refers to those who live outside the metropolitan region but hold jobs within the region. The total of these two categories yields the total number of jobs in the region.
As shown, the region's employment base has grown from 369,100 in 1960 to 888,200 in 1981, for a total increase of 140.6%. Between 1971 and 1981 the total number of jobs increased from 563,600 to 888,200, for an increase of 57.6%. The region averaged 24,700 new jobs annually from 1960 to 1981, and this average increased to 32,500 from 1971 to 1981. Growth has been continuous and strong with a decline only in 1974-75, a recessionary year nationwide, indicating a healthy employment trend.
Employment growth can be analyzed more specifically by examining the employment sectors in which growth occurred. Table 2 shows employment by major industrial classification in the Denver Metropolitan Region during the last decade.
As shown, the services sector has created the most new jobs during the last ten years, averaging 8,600 new jobs per year from 1971 to 1981 and increasing to 10,000 jobs per year from 1976 to 1981. The retail trade sector followed with an average of 4,700 new jobs per year during the last ten years. The manufacturing sector created 4,100 new jobs per year during the last decade, but surpassed growth in the retail sector during the last five years with an average of 5,800 new jobs per year. The services sector accounted for 26.5% of new jet) growth during the last ten years, followed by retail with 14.5%, manufacturing with 12.6%, and government with 12.6%.
DENVER METROPOLITAN REGION EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 1971-1981 (in thousands)
Industrial AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE
Sector 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1971-1981 1976-1981 1978-1981
Mining 5.6 6.1 7.5 8.7 9.8 10.7 12.1 14.8 16.3 20.1 25.6 2.0 3.0 3.6
Contract Construction i 32.9 42.5 46.9 40.8 32.7 33.7 37.9 44.7 48.8 46.2 42.5 1.0 1.8 - .7
Manufacturing 87.4 94.8 101.5 102.7 94.9 99.1 104.9 116.6 124.1 124.3 128.1 4.1 5.8 3.8
Transportation and Public Utilities 37.2 38.7 41.6 42.6 41.0 40.8 43.1 49.6 53.9 55.5 57.0 2.0 3.2 2.5
Wholesale Trade 36.0 37.3 40.2 41.4 41.0 43.3 45.9 48.9 53.2 55.8 57.6 2.2 2.9 2.9
Retail Trade 89.8 101.2 105.4 108.0 108.1 115.4 123.1 129.7 135.1 136.6 136.9 4.7 4.3 2.4
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 31.2 35.0 38.4 39.6 40.0 46.2 44.0 49.1 52.7 54.0 56.5 2.5 2.1 2.5
Services 92.7 103.3 112.9 118.7 123.6 128.1 137.2 149.1 158.6 168.6 178.4 8.6 10.0 9.7
Government 97.0 102.6 105.1 110.5 117.9 119.3 121.9 131.3 134.3 138.2 137.4 4.1 3.6 2.0
Agriculture 8.5 8.2 9.0 9.3 8.4 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
Other (estimated) 45.0 47.7 50.6 48.3 49.3 44.5 53.4 56.8 58.4 58.6 61.7 1.7 1.8 1.6
TOTAL 563.3 617.4 659.1 670.6 666.7 689.0 731.1 797.1 842.0 864.8 888.2 32.5 38.2 30.4
Note: Denver Metropolitan Region includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas,
Gilpin and Jefferson Counties.
Source of Basic Data: Colorado Division of Employment and Training, "Estimated Denver-Boulder LMA Nonagricultural Wage and
Salary Employment" series, and "Denver-Boulder LMA 1/Resident Labor Force" series.
Steady moderate growth was experienced in the mining, finance/insurance/real estate, transportation/public utilities, and wholesale trade sectors. The construction sector grew at a slow pace during the last ten years and experienced a decline during the last three years, and the agriculture sector has declined steadily during the last decade.
The historical trends in employment growth for sector can be used as a basis for projecting future regional employment growth. By comparing the average annual change in each sector by the last ten, five, three, and one year periods, in Table 2, a reasonable anticipated growth rate for each sector was derived. These growth rates were adjusted to reflect trends evident in individual sectors as noted by the Denver Regional Council of Governments, resulting in the following anticipated average annual growth rates for each sector:
Contract Construction 1,000
Transportation and Public Utilities 2,500
Wholesale Trade 3,500
Retail Trade 5,000
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 3,000
Table 3 makes a straight line projection for each sector using the above numerical employment growth estimates.
As shown, the region's employment base is projected to increase to 1,228,500 jobs by 1991, for an average increase of 34,000 new jobs per year. The projected growth is comparable to the last ten years' regional growth.
DENVER METROPOLITAN REGION PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT (in thousands)
INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ANNUAL
SECTOR 1982 1083 1084 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 GROWTH RATE
Mining 27.7 29.9 32.3 35.0 37.8 40.9 44.2 47.7 51.6 55.6 8.1%
Contract Construction 43.4 44.3 45.2 46.2 47.2 48.1 49.2 50.2 51.2 52.5 2.1%
Manufacturing 131.6 135.4 139.2 143.1 147.1 151.2 155.4 159.8 164.2 168.1 2.8%
Transportation and Public Utilities 59.1 61.3 63.6 65.9 68.4 70.9 73.5 76.2 79.1 82.0 3.7%
Wholesale Trade 60.4 63.3 66.4 69.7 73.0 76.6 80.3 84.2 88.3 92.6 4.9%
Retail Trade 141.2 145.7 150.3 155.1 160.0 165.0 170.2 175.6 181.2 186.9 3.2%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 59.0 61.5 64.2 67.0 69.9 73.0 76.1 79.4 82.9 86.5 4.4%
Services 186.9 195.7 205.0 214.7 224.9 235.5 246.7 258.3 270.6 283.4 4.7%
Government 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.4 0
Agriculture 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0
Other 63.1 64.4 65.9 67.3 68.8 70.3 71.9 73.4 75.1 76.7 2.2%
TOTAL 916.3 945.4 976.0 1007.9 1041.0 1075.4 1111.4 1148.7 1188.1 1228.5 3.3%
NOTE: Denver Metropolitan Region includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin and Jefferson Counties.
Source of Basic Data: Denver Regional Council of Governments, 1982 and 1986 Economic Forecasts for
the Denver Metropolitan Area.
In the current unstable economy, considerable fluctuation can be anticipated. However, such fluctuation is unpredictable, and the overall overlook for the regional economy is one of continued growth. High growth sectors are expected to be services, retail, mining (oil-related), and manufacturing.
The employment growth projected in Table 3 will generate population growth in the Metropolitan Region. Historic population growth trends are examined in Table 4.
As shown, the region experienced a population increase of 690,533 from 1960 to 1980, with the bulk of that growth occurring from 1970 to 1980. The employment participation rate, or percent of the population participating in employment, has also increased during the last 20 years. A significant factor contributing to this increase has been the increasing number of women joining the work force.
Table 5 makes a projection of future population growth in the Metropolitan Region, using the employment participation rate as the conversion factor. It is assumed that the employment participation rate will continue to increase at a rate comparable with that of the last decade, as an increasing number of women join the work force, and as inflation influences increased employment participation. As shown, the region's population is projected to increase to 2,060,500 by 1991, growing at a slightly slower pace than it did during the last ten years. A projected decline in average household size accounts for this trend.
DENVER METROPOLITAN REGION POPULATION TRENDS
POPULATION RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION RATE
1960 937,677 356,200 37.99%
1970 1,096,099 516,800 47.15%
1980 1,628,210 834,500 51.25%
Total Change 1960-1980 690,533 160,600 13.26%
Average Annual Growth Rate 1960-1980 2.8% 4.4% 1.5%
Total Change 1970-1980 532,111 317,700 4.10%
Average Annual Growth Rate 1970-1980 4.0% 4.9% 0.8%
Note: Denver Metropolitan Region includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin and Jefferson Counties.
Source of Basic Data: U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Bureau of Census,
Census of Population. 1960. 1970. 1980; Colorado Division of Elrployment and Training.
DENVER. METROPOLITAN REGION PROJECTED POPUIATION2
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT1 EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION PROJECTED YEAE______________(JAN. 1)__________________RATE________________POPULATION
1982 850,000 .5165 1,645,700
1983 878,000 .5205 1,686,800
1984 907,000 .5245 1,729,300
1985 936,900 .5285 1,772,800
1986 967,800 .5325 1,817,500
1987 999,800 .5365 1,863,600
1988 1,032,800 .5405 1,910,800
1989 1,066,900 .5445 1,959,400
1990 1,102,100 .5485 2,009,300
1991 1,138,400 .5525 2,060,500
Total Change 1982-1991 288,400 .0360 414,800
Average Annual Growth Rate 3.3% 0.8% 2.5%
Notes: Resident employment is projected using the growth rate derived in the preceding total employment projection, and is adjusted to reflect a January 1 figure based on trends comparing January employment to average employment (96%).
Denver Metropolitan Region includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Gilpin and Jefferson Counties.
Growth Trends in the Study Area
The study area has played an increasing role in the metropolitan region's household and population growth. Table 6 shows the percentage of metropolitan residential building permits that have been issued in Aurora and Arapahoe County.
As shown in Table 6, Arapahoe County's share of building permits issued for new residential units grew from 29.3% of the metro area total in 1972 to 46.1% by 1981. From 1979 to 1981, Arapahoe County averaged 7,369 new units per year, or 36.6%, over one-third, of the metro area total. The City of Aurora, located in both Adams and Arapahoe Counties, contributed 15.7% of metro area building permits for new residential units in 1972. This percentage increased to 30.9%, nearly one-third, of the metro area total in 1981. Aurora averaged 5,194 new units, or 25.8% of the metro total, annually from 1979 to 1981.
To date, the greatest amount of the study area's growth has occurred within the Aurora city limits. During the 1970's Aurora emerged as the nation's third fastest growing city of over 100,000 population. The portion of the subject study area located in Aurora accounted for a large proportion of Aurora's growth during the 1970's. Table 7 shows population growth in Aurora from 1970 to 1980, broken down by census group divisions, as defined by the Aurora Planning Department.
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PEFMIT TREIOS IN AURORA AND ARAPAHOE COUNTY Denver 6-County
Metro Area Arapahoe County .Aurora
Year Single Family Multi Family Total Single Family Multi Family Total Percent of Metro Single Family Multi Family Total Percent of Metre
1972 18,584 25,544 44,128 6,106 6,825 12,931 29.3% 3,493 3,438 6,931 15.7%
1973 15,366 15,732 31,098 3,940 2,730 6,670 21.4% 2,841 1,799 4,640 14.9%
1974 7,453 4,451 11,904 2,077 1,008 3,085 25.9% 1,280 531 1,811 15.2%
1975 8,070 1,317 9,387 2,461 215 2,676 28.5% 1,133 140 1,273 13.6%
1976 11,388 2,733 14,121 3,472 687 4,159 29.5% 1,740 497 2,237 15.8%
1977 19,148 3,812 22,960 6,882 865 7,747 33.7% 3,569 1,002 4,571 19.9%
1978 19,552 7,954 27,506 7,619 2,266 9,885 35.9% 4,225 1,801 6,026 21.9%
1979 15,477 6,597 22,074 5,964 2,403 8,367 37.9% 3,838 2,174 6,012 27.2%
1980 10,117 5,949 16,066 4,277 2,533 6,810 42.4% 2,509 2,410 4,919 30.6%
1981 11,317 3,708 15,025 5,164 1,767 6,931 46.1% 2,356 2,294 4,650 30.9%
1972-81 (10 yr Average) *13,647 10,331 23,978 4,796 2,130 6,926 28.9% 2,698 1,609 4,307 18.0%
1979-81 (3 yr. Average 12,304 7,817 20,121 5,135 2,234 7,369 36.6% 2,901 2,293 5,194 25.8%
Sources of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "C-40 Construction Series," 1972-1980;
Homebuilders Association of Metropolitan Denver, "Metro Homebuilders," January 1982; Aurora Building Inspection Division, "Building Inspection Report," 1972-1982.
197 P ~
CENSUS POPULATION CHANGE 1970 1980
.GROUP____1970 1980________TOTAL_________AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL PERCENT
1 21,370 18,507 -2,863 - 286 - 13.4%
2 15,287 14,498 789 79 5.4%
3 6,488 4,860 -1,628 - 163 - 25.4%
4 7,447 5,422 -2,025 - 203 - 27.2%
5* 959 7,378 6,419 642 669.3%
6 3,877 9,142 5,265 527 135.8%
7 5,812 8,153 2,341 234 40.3%
8 3,929 1,895 -2,034 - 203 - 51.8%
9 6,396 6,974 578 58 9.0%
10 1,951 5,865 3,914 391 200.6%
11 2,450 19,093 16,643 1,664 679.3%
12 30 11,764 11,734 1,173 39,113.3%
13* 76 18,399 18,323 1,832 24,109.2%
14* 622 16,217 15,595 1,560 2,507.2%
15* 31 828 797 80 2,571.0%
16* 0 9,593 9,593 959
Note: 1970 equivalents of 1980 areas include sections that were not part of incorporated Aurora in 1970 (denoted by *).
Sources of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census,
"Census of Population," 1970 and 1980; Aurora Planning Department.
Population Growth by Census Groups
Hie high level of growth in the southeast quadrant of the city is evident particularly by Census Group 14, south of Hampden Avenue. This area experienced an average annual increase of 1,560 people, growing from 622 to 16,217 people in ten years. Census Groups 12 and 13 were among the fastest growing in the city, experiencing the bulk of their growth in the area south of Mississippi Avenue. Census Group 16, also in the southeast quadrant began its development process in the 1970's, growing from no population in 1970 to 9,593 in 1980, for an average annual increase of 959.
The following shows household and population growth trends in the southeast quadrant of Aurora, bounded by Jewell Avenue, 1-225, and the southern and eastern city limits.
growth trends in southeast aurora
Households: 15,587 Population: 44,931
Total Change. 197Q-128Q
Average Annual Change. 1970-1980 Households: 1,552 Population: 4,471
Source of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
1970 and 1980 Census of Population.
The bulk of the growth in the southeast area of Aurora is occurring in large-scale master planned developments zoned as Planned Community Zone Districts (PCZD). Most of the future growth in this area will occur in PCZD's as shown in Table 9 and the accompanying map.
PLANNED COMMUNITY ZONE DISTRICTS SOUTHEAST AURORA
Developer/Bui1der TDoation Gross Acreage Residential Total Residential Units Average Density (DU/Acre) Estimated Level of Build Out
1. Kingsborough South Pulte Iliff & Chambers (SE) 582 990 6.1 90%
2. Mission Viejo Mission Viejo Corporation Hampden & Chambers (SE) 612 2,643 4.3 90%
3. Cinnamon Ridge Lieberman Homes Hampden & Buckley (SE) 426 2,816 6.6 100%
4. Hutchinson Hgts. Hutchinson Homes Hampden & Buckley (NE) 1,487 12,152 8.2 30%
5. The Mesa Crane Homes Hampden & Tower (SE) 625 3,543 5.7 65%
6. Seven Hills Seven Lakes Ventures Hampden & Tower (N) 283 3,541 12.5 50%
7. Summer Valley Ranch II U.S. Homes Quincy & Buckley (SE) ' 576 3,896 6.8 50%
8. Pheasant Run U.S. Homes Quincy & Chambers (SW) J 438 1,236 2.8 95%
TOTAL 4,929 30,817 6.3 55%
Source of Basic Data: Aurora Planning Department, Current Planning Division, Master Plans
and unpublished projections of timing of development of PCZD's, 1982, Aurora, Colorado.
PCZD's Southeast Aurora
The ultimate population of the southeast quadrant of Aurora can be projected based on the housing densities planned in the undeveloped portions of the existing PCZD's, and the densities specified in the zoning for undeveloped areas outside PCZD's. Table 10 shows maximum population based on these densities. Household size estimates were derived based on comparisons of household size for projects of similar densities.
PROJECTED ULTIMATE POPULATION BY HOUSING DENSITY, SOUTHEAST AURORA
Density (Units per Acre) Total Acres Total Units Household Size Population
5 2,357.4 11,787 3.2 37,718
8.1 31.9 258 2.1 542
10 293.3 2,930 2.1 6,153
14.5 26.9 390 1.7 663
16 342.5 5,480 1.7 9,316
20 93.9 1,878 1.7 3,193
22 47.9 1,054 1.7 1,792
33 8.4 277 1.7 471
36.3 76.2 2,766 1.7 4,702
40 18.7 748 1.7 1,272
TOTAL 3,297.1 27,568 2.4 65,822
Source of Basic Data: Aurora Planning Department, raw data from 1980 Land
Use Survey, May 1980.
As shown, the ultimate population of the land undeveloped as of 1980 is
projected to be 65,822.
The Aurora Planning Department has made estimates of the pace of development for each undeveloped planned zoned area. By applying these estimates to the projected population in Table 10, Table 11 shows projected households and population in southeast Aurora for 1985, 1990 and 2000.
PROJECTED GRCWTH IN SOUTHEAST AURORA
Source of Basic Data: Aurora Planning Department, raw data from 1980 Land
Use Survey, May 1980; U.S. Department of Census, Bureau of the Census, Census Of PppyletiPfL 1990.
Hiis projection indicates a growth of 20,083 households and 37,390 people between 1980 and the year 2000, for an average annual increase of 1,004 households and 1,870 people.
The portion of the study area in unincorporated Arapahoe County experienced approximately one-third the population increase that occurred in southeast Aurora during the 1970's. The following table shows household and
population growth trends in the unincorporated area of Arapahoe County, bounded by 1-25, County Line Road, Gun Club Road, and the Aurora City Limits.
G&M .TRENDg IN UNINCORPORATED ARAPAHOE COUNTY
Households: 172 Population: 622
.Total... Change# 197Q-198Q
Average Annual Change. 1970-1980 Households: 484
Source of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
1970 and 1980 Census of Population.
Future growth in this section of Arapahoe County is anticipated to be strong. Residential development plans are already approved for most of the land in the area, although actual development is only now beginning to occur.
Table 13 characterizes fourteen Planned Unit Development (PUD's) within the subject study area, approved for development by the Arapahoe County Planning Department. As shown, these plans include a total of 19,845 units, of which 18,198 or 91.7%, are unbuilt to date. The remaining developments designated on the accompanying map are residential areas with no PUD on file. Many of these are large lot developments with lots of one acre or more. Several of the major PUD's were allocated a specific maximum allowable phasing program for development.
Arapahoe County Planned Unit Developments
Development/Builder Location Gross Acreage Residential Total Residential Units Average Density D.U./Ac. Estimated Level of Buildout
1. Fox Hill Melody Homes Quincy and Himalaya (SW) 262 1,061 (phased @ 200/yr) 4.0 0
2. Quincy Highlands Rippey-God Holding Co. & Cooper Investments Hampden and Picadilly (SW) 570 2,704 4.7 0 (development of eastern portion dependent on mitigation of negative inpacts of Lowry Landfill).
3. Columbine East Columbine Development Hampden and Gun Club (SW) 523 2,103 4.0 0 (development dependent on mitigation of negative inpacts of Lowry Landfill) .
4. Piney Creek MDC (formerly Block-Good) Belleview and Chambers (SE) 695 2,261 (phased @ 420/yr) NA 0
5. Smoky Hill 400 Castlewood Corp. Belleview and Buckley (SE) 392 1,373 3.5 Fully built out
6. Himalaya 160 Castlewood Corp. Belleview and Himalaya (SW) 161 624 (phased @ 214/yr) 3.9 0
7. Smoky Hill 1600 Huntington Properties Belleview and Himalaya (SE) 1,369 5,280-5,349 (phased @ 764/yr) 3.9 0
Unincorporated Arapahoe County Planned Residential Development (continued)
8. Smoky Hill 570 Castlewood Corp.
9. The Trails at Piney Creek J.R. Development
10. Saddle Rock Ranches
11. Rich Center
12. Chapparal 480 Associated Investment
13. Arapahoe Meadows J.R. Developers
14. Wood Brothers
Smoky Hill and South of Orchard (SW)
Orchard and Buckley (NE)
Smoky Hill and Himalaya (SE)
Arapahoe and Parker (SW)
Arapahoe and Tower (SE)
Arapahoe and Smoky Hill Smoky Hill (SW)
Parker and Belleview (SW)
Source of Basic Data: Arapahoe County Planning Department,
Littleton, Colorado, 1982.
Gross Acreage Residential Total Residential Units Average Density D.U./Ac Estimated Level of Buildout
285 1,378 (phased @ 297/yr) 4.8 0
179 571 3.2 0
582 218 0.4 Built out
54 810 or less 15 units or less 0
456 230 0.5 20%
131 56 0.4 10%
1fl. m 1*11 0
5,729 19,845 3.5
4,651 18,198 3.9
individual development Master Plans for study area,
Arapahoe County Residential Development
Arapahoe County Douglas County
SCALE IN MILES NORTH
1. Alpert Corp.
3. Cooper Investment
4. Columbine Dev. Co. (East Hampden Club)
5. Melody Homes (Fox Hills)
6. Quincy River Associates
7. Quincy Partnership
8. M. Cooper General Partnership
9. Cooper Investment
10. Cherry Creek Ranches
11. Wood Bros.
13. T.G. (Block-Good) Piney Creek
14. Castlewood Corp. (Smoky Hill "400")
15. J.R. Developers Ltd. (The Hills at Piney Creek)
16. Colburn Orchard Downs
18. Castlewood Corp. (Himalaya)
19. Castlewood Corp. (Smoky Hill "570")
20. Huntington Properties
21. Smoky Hill Land Co.
22. Dove Hill
23. Cherry Creek East
24. E. Goodman
25. Piney Creek Ranches
26. Davidson Estates
27. Saddle Rock Ranches Park Funding Corp.
29. Almos-Park Ridge Estates Rancheros Felices
30. Chapparal 480
32. Western Homesteaders Dev. Corp. (Arapahoe Meadows)
33. Arapahoe Heights
35. Country Village
36. Lowry Landfill
Based on this phasing program and the rate of development anticipated by the Arapahoe County Planning Department, Table 14 shows projected growth in the Arapahoe County portion of the study area. An average household size of 3 was used to estimate population.
PROJECTED GRCfoTH IN UNINCORPORATED ARAPAHOE COUNTY
1299 Households: 12,500
1290 Households: 20,000
2m Households: 35,000
Sources of Basic Data: Arapahoe County Planning Department, PUD plans and
conversation with Chuck Donnelly, Planner, 9/2/82; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 19 8Q census.of .-Bopulatifip
Table 15 combines the projections for southeast Aurora and unincorporated Arapahoe County to show projected growth for the total study area.
IN STUDY AREA
1299 Households: 33,100
1990 Households: 45,600
2m Households: 70,600
In addition to growth in the defined study area, it should be noted that significant growth is anticipated south of the study area in Douglas County. This area would be expected to provide secondary support for commercial facilities in the study area. Table 16 shows major planned developments along the Parker Road Corridor in Douglas County. As shown, these developments are expected to generate an ultimate increase of 39,443 people.
DOUGLAS COUNTY DEVELOPMENTS ALONG PARKER ROAD CORRIDOR
Development_________1982 Population_______Tatal-EQtenti^ Population
1. Town of Parker 600 3,000
2. Pinery 2,600 26,155
3. Gateway 3,000 9,207
4. Cottonwood 250 5,431
5. Stonegate Q 7.500
TOTAL 11,850 51,293
Note: Additional daily employment population of 54,200 anticipated at Meridian, a 1,222.5 acre office/industrial area.
Source of Basic Data: Douglas County Planning Department, "Douglas County
Population, Employment and Growth 1982 Update,
May 25, 1982, Castle Rock, Colorado.
The population of the study area consists predominantly of young families with children. The 1980 Census indicated that 80% of the households in the area were families. The following table shows the age distribution of the population.
AGE OF POPULATION. STUDY AREA, 1980
Less than 14 17,467 28.3%
14 19 5,061 8.2%
20 29 11,171 18.1%
30 44 19,627 31.8%
45 54 4,135 6.7%
55 64 2,654 4.3%
65 74 1,173 1.9%
75 and above m 0.7%
TOTAL 61,720 100.0%
Source of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Coimerce, Bureau of the Census,
1980 Census of Population.
As shown, the largest percentage of the population, 31.8%, is in the 30-44 age group. The second largest category consists of children under 14, accounting for 28.3%. Only 13.6% of the population is over age 44.
During 1980, 50% of the primary trade area population were employed. The highest percentage, 55%, were employed in professional, administrative, managerial, and clerical occupations. The following table shows the range of occupational categories.
OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED ADULTS. STUDY AREA, 1980
Executive, Administrative & Managerial 5,861 19.0%
Professional Specialty 5,157 16.7%
Technicians 1,584 5.1%
Sales 4,524 14.7%
Administrative Support & Clerical 5,989 19.4%
Private Household Services 61 0.2%
Protective Services 384 1.3%
Other Services 2,333 7.6%
Fanning & Forestry 182 0.6%
Precision Production, Craft, & Repair 2,785 9.0%
Operators, Fabricators, & Laborers 616 2.0%
Transportation 552 1.8%
Handlers, Equipment Cleaners, & Helpers 8H 2,6*
TOTAL 30,839 100.0%
Source of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau 1990 Census of Population. of the Census
Income ^-Expenditure Patterns
In order to determine dollar support for a retail center, income and expenditure data for the study area must be considered. The 1980 Census indicated the following income distribution for households in the study area. This data is valid for 1979.
Less than $10,000 952 4.5%
$10,000 $14,999 1,371 6.5%
$15,000 $19,999 2,511 11.9%
$20,000 $24,999 3,713 17.6%
$25,000 $29,999 3,482 16.5%
$30,000 $34,999 2,764 13.1%
$35,000 $39,999 1,709 8.1%
$40,000 $49,999 2,131 10.1%
$50,000 $74,999 1,540 7.3%
$75,000 and above 228 _jL41
TOTAL 21,101 100.0%
As shown, the highest percentage of households, 47.2%, were in the middle income ranges in 1979, with annual incomes of $20,000 $34,999.
The median household income of the primary trade area is estimated to be $36,000. This estimate was derived using 1980 Census data and calculating a weighted average median income (income weighted by number of households) for the census tracts in the trade area. This was updated to 1982 using an inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index.
Hie Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data regarding retail expenditure patterns for an average family in the Denver Metropolitan Region, as follows:
Expenditure Percentaoe of
Food at Home 18%
Food Away From Home 4%
Home Furnishings 4%
Personal Care 2%
Other Family Consumption 5%
Percentage Applied to Study Income Area Income ($36.000)
Source of Basic Data: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
"Autumn 1981 Family Budgets and Comparative Indexes for Selected Urban Areas," News. April 16, 1982.
Summary of Competition
I. Regional Shopping Centers
The Denver Metropolitan Region has an active retail market, as indicated by a recent survey by a major real estate firm. The survey showed that over 1 million square feet of retail space were absorbed in 1981 and the region had an overall retail vacancy rate of 4.1%.
Table 19 indicates regional shopping centers in the Denver Metropolitan Region. The 13 existing malls range in size from 366,000 square feet to 1,286,000 square feet, with an average size of 710,300 square feet. This does not include the downtown Denver central business district, which includes approximately 1,600,000 square feet. Southwest Plaza, currently under construction in the southwest metro area, will be larger than any of the existing centers.
In addition to these centers, five proposed regional malls are listed.
Two of these, the Park Meadows and Denver Tech sites, would provide substantial competition to any retail development south of the existing Aurora limits. No plans have been submitted for either of these sites to date, and development is assumed to be a long term prospect. Two additional sites, one at Hampden and Havana (SW) and one at 1-25 and Arapahoe (NE), are under initial consideration by a developer for shopping center development. The size and timing of these proposals are undetermined at this time.
REGIONAL SHOPPING COTTERS. DENVER METRO AREA A. Existing
1. Aurora Mall Alameda and 1-225 1,149,800 sq. ft.
2. Buckingham Square Havana and Mississippi 787,300 sq. ft.
3. University Hills University and Yale 583,000 sq. ft.
4. Southglenn University and Arapahoe 900,000 sq. ft.
5. Cherry Creek University and 1st 400,000 sq. ft.
6. Cinderella City Hampden and Santa Fe 1,286,000 sq. ft.
7. Bear Valley Hampden and Sheridan 366,000 sq. ft.
8. Villa Italia Wadsworth and Almeda 1,050,000 sq. ft.
9. Westland Colfax and Kipling 568,000 sq. ft.
10. Lakeside Sheridan and 44th 567,000 sq. ft.
11. North Valley 1-25 and 84th 437,000 sq. ft.
12. Westminster Boulder Turnpike and Sheridan 382,900 sq. ft.
13. Northglenn 104th and 1-25 757,250 sq. ft.
14. Downtown Denver, 16th Street 16th St., Broadway to Arapahoe 1,800,000 sq. ft.
B. Under Construction
15. Southwest Plaza (to open 1983)
Wadsworth and Bowles 1,600,000 sq. ft.
sq. ft. unknown
16. Westglenn Mall 88th and Wadsworth
17. Cherry Creek Renovation,
Univ. & 1st (including old & new retail)
18. 1-70 and Wadsworth regional mall (proposed for 1985)
19. Park Meadows Town Center 1-25 and County Line (SW)
(no master plan submitted to date)
20. Denver Tech Center Block A 1-25 and 1-225
1,482,000 sq. ft. retail
900,000 sq. ft.
1,025,000 sq. ft.
105 acres designated regional mall but development will depend on long-term market; no immediate plans; negotiating with potential major tenants.
Sources of Basic Data: Frederick R. Ross Co., "Shopping Center Absorption
Study of Denver Metropolitan Area," Denver, Colorado, December 31, 1981; Telephone conversations with developers of proposed centers.
II. Existing Retail Competition in Immediate Site Vicinity
The study area has been an active area for retail development in recent years, accompanying the increasing residential development in the area. For purposes of summarizing competition, the area has been defined as the existing Aurora City limits south of Iliff Avenue and the immediate outskirts of the City to the south and west.
Table 20 summarizes the major commercial centers in the study area as of September, 1982. The Aurora Mall and Buckingham Square are not in the study area but are included on the list because as regional malls they should be considered competition for any commercial development in the
Proposed Regional Malls In Site Vicinity
UNION PACIFIC R.R, t
STAPLETON-^, V INTERNATIONAL^
r t u a \ic LOWRY AIR-
E. 6th AVE. TECHNICAL^
E. COUNTY LINE RD.
* Park Meadows
Aurora area. The Aurora Mall, with 1,149,800 square feet, is a super-regional mall. Buckingham Square, with 787,300 square feet, is an older, smaller regional Center.
In addition to the two regional malls, twelve shopping centers with over 50,000 square feet are listed, along with one free-standing strip conmercial area. The twelve centers range from 67,400 to 165,600 square feet, with an average of 108,100 square feet. All of the centers surveyed are within the existing Aurora City limits with the exception of Tamarac Square. The 11 Aurora centers surveyed have a total of 1,179,200 square feet of which 29,000 square feet were vacant as of September,
1982, for a low vacancy rate of 2.5%. Over half of the vacant space is located in the East Bank Shopping Center which is still in the final construction stages. If this center is not considered, the overall vacancy rate for the remaining ten centers was an extremely low 1.4%.
The majority of the centers surveyed are neighborhood- oriented with a combination of retail and service tenants. Seven of the centers are anchored by a grocery store or a grocery/drug store combination. Tamarac Square is the only center included that is an exclusive specialty shopping center, featuring movie theaters, restaurants, and numerous clothing stores.
This survey was conducted in the form of a visual survey. Square footage estimates of all but the regional centers were derived from a commercial overview of Aurora completed by the Aurora Planning Department* or by pacing the length and width of individual centers.
*Luhrs, Kurt, "Retail, Office, and Industrial Development in Aurora." (Aurora, Colorado, Aurora Planning Department, March 1982), pp. 6-8.
EXISTING COMMERCIAL COMPETITION FOR STUDY AREA
1. Aurora Mall
Alameda and 1-225
Total Building Area = 1,149,800 square feet
Department Store 4 (Hie
Fast Food/Carry Out 5
Ice Cream 2
Specialty Food 3
Ladies Apparel 20
Ladies Accessories/Specialty 5
Mens Apparel 4
Childrens Apparel 2
Family Apparel/Specialty Apparel 5
Radio, TV, Hi-Fi 2
Musical Instruments 2
Records and Tapes 2
Sporting Goods 3
Furniture and Home Accessories 4
Cards and Gifts 8
Beauty Shop 3
Camera Store 1
Pet Shop 1
Banks/Savings and Loan 3
Movie Theater 3
Miscellaneous Retail 9
Miscellaneous Service 3
Denver, Sears, D&F, J.C. Penney)
2. Buckingham Square
Havana and Mississippi
Total Building Area = 787,300 square feet
Family Apparel/Specialty Apparel
Radio, TV, Hi-Fi Musical Instruments Records and Tapes Sporting Goods
Furniture and Home Accessories
Cards and Gifts
Banks/Savings and Loan Movie Theater Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Service
2 (Joslins, Montgomery Ward)
3 1 1 1 1 1
5 8 1 3
4 2 1 2 1 2 4 3 6
3. East Bank Shopping Center Total Building Area = 165,600 sq. ft.
Parker and Quincy (NE) Vacant Space: Approx. 15,000 sq. ft.
(new and under construction)
Fast Food/Carry Out
4. Regatta Plaza
Parker & 1-255 (NW)
Total Building Area = 75,800 sq. ft. Vacant Space = Approx. 2,000 sq. ft.
Grocery (King Soopers) Drug (Skaggs) Restaurant (2)
Ice Cream Donuts
Beauty Supply Cleaners Interiors Bank
Savings and Loan
5. Parker Landing Total Building Area = 105,865 sq. ft.
Parker and Cornell (SE) Vacant Space: 0
Grocery (Safeway, Super Store) Restaurant (2)
Beauty Solar Cleaners Shoe Repair Check Cashing Day Care Locksmith
Parker and Bethany (SW)
Total Building Area = 150,000 sq. ft.
Vacant Space = 0
Restaurant (5) Tobacconist
Specialty Food Tailor
Ladies Apparel Dentist (2)
Camera Additional Office Space
Travel Spa/Fitness Center
Freestandina commercial alona Parker between Havana and Yale, includina
a. Discount (LaBelle's)
b. LaBelle's Shopette
c. Aurora Summit Shopette
d. Shores Center Shopette (vacant = 500 sq. ft.)
e. Stockade Shops (vacant = 500 sq. ft.)
Village on the Park Total Building Area = 118,350 sq. ft.
Havana and Iliff (SW) Vacant Space = 1,500 sq. ft.
Restaurant (3) Carpet
Fast Food Appliance
Ladies Apparel Gifts
Family Apparel Beauty (2)
Childrens Apparel Barber
Shoes Office Supply
Sporting Goods Printer (2)
Furniture (3) Travel
Sumrer, Valley Center Total Building Area = 111,200 sq. ft.
Quincy and Buckley (NE) Vacant Space = 0
Grocery (Safeway) Cleaners
Liquor Savings and Loan
Shoes Dance Studio
Gifts TV Repair
Beauty Equipment Rental
Total Building Area = 85,000 sq. ft.
Vacant Space = 0
10. Mission Viejo
Chambers and Hampden (SE)
Grocery (Warehouse) Restaurant Fast Food (3) Liquor Radio/Stereo Auto Parts Beauty (2) Bank Frames Optometrist Insurance Finance Interiors Equipment Rental Florist Cleaners Savings and Loan Dentist (2)
11. Mission Plaza/Safeway Total Building Area = 90,500 sq. ft.
Chambers and Hampden (NE) Vacant Space = 1,000 sq. ft.
Grocery (Safeway) Drug Restaurant (2) Fast Food Bakery Ladies Apparel Gifts Barber Frames Travel Shoe Repair Real Estate (2) Photo Shoes Beauty Beauty Supply
12. Buckley Square Total Building Area = 115,900 sq. ft
Iliff & Buckley (SW) and (SE) Vacant Space = 5,000 sq. ft.
Donuts Fast Food Childrens Apparel Liquor Shoes Auto Parts Gifts Florist Church Real Estate Spa Savings and Loan Veterinarian Insurance Grocery (King Soopers) Restaurant (2) Ice Cream Family Clothing Florist Bicycles Telephone Beauty (2) Cleaners Radio/Stereo Shoe Repair Packaging Pets Dentist
Iliff Crossing Iliff and Buckley (NE)
Total Building Area = 93,600 sq. ft
Vacant Space = 1,000 sq. ft.
Grocery (Albertsons) Drug
Restaurant Fast Food Ice Cream Lounge Shoes
Iliff and Chambers (SE)
Total Building Area = 67,400 sq. ft. Vacant Space = 3,500 sq. ft.
Printer Dance Studio Solar Photo Bicycles
15. Additional significant competition outside Aurora City limits = Tamarac Square. Hampden and Tamarac. 118,000 square feet. Specialty center with 65 stores and 7 restaurants.
5 PICADILLY RD.
GUN CLUB RD. HARVEST RD.
Existing Commercial Competition
SUMMARY OF SHOPPING CENTER COMPETITION IN STODY AREA
Fast Food/Carryout 8
Specialty Food 3
Ice Cream 4
Ladies Apparel 4
Men's Apparel 0
Children's Apparel 2
Family Apparel 2
Sporting Goods 1
Fumiture/Home Accessories 8
Tires/Auto Supply 4
Bank/Savings and Loan 6
Equipment Rental 2
Miscellaneous Retail 10
Miscellaneous Service 21
III. Proposed Retail Competition in Immediate Site Vicinity
In addition to the major shopping centers being considered for development along the 1-25 corridor, future development in the study area will include numerous neighborhood shopping centers and shopettes. The following lists show areas designated on existing master plans for future commercial development that could provide potential competition for development in the study area. These lists include areas within Aurora and unincorporated Arapahoe County. The sites listed total 322 acres and range from two to 35.5 acres, with an average size of 14 acres.
DESIGNATED COMMERCIAL SITES IN ARAPAHOE COUNTY PUD'S (1)
Development Commercial Site Location Commercial Acreage
1. Quincy Highlands Belleview and Gun Club (NW) 10
2. Quincy Highlands Quincy & Picadilly (SE) 25
3. Columbine East Quincy & Picadilly (SE) 13.7
4. Smoky Hill 1600 Smoky Hill & Himalaya (NE) 25
5. Smoky Hill 1600 Orchard and Gun Club (SW) 10
6. Smoky Hill 1600 Orchard and Liverpool 5
7. Smoky Hill 570 Smoky Hill and Tower (SE) 23
8. Rich Center Arapahoe and Parker (SW) 34
9. Piney Creek (specific location unknown) 40
Sources of Basic Data: Arapahoe County Planning Department, individual
development Master Plans for study area, Littleton, Colorado, 1982.
< PICADILLY RD.
GUN CLUB RD. HARVEST RD.
Proposed Neighborhood Commercial Sites (1)
DESIGNATED COMMERCIAL SITES IN AURORA,..PCZ.D15_iÂ£QUth .Qf..Jliff Avenue) (2)
Name tocetion Commercial Acreage
1. Mission Viejo Quincy and Chambers (NE) 6
2. Mission Viejo Quincy and Buckley (NW) 10
3. Cinnamon Ridge Quincy and Buckley (NE) 10.6
4. Hutchinson Heights Iliff and Buckley (SE) 12.4
5. Hutchinson Heights Yale and Tower (SW) 4
6. Hutchinson Heights Hampden and Tower (SW) 35.5
7. Hutchinson Heights Dartmouth and Ventura (SW) 4
8. Hutchinson Heights Yale and Himalaya (SW) 5
9. Hutchinson Heights Jewell and Himalaya (SW) 8
10. Seven Hills Bates and Flanders 4
11. Seven Hills Hampden and Ceylon 5.7
12. Seven Hills Hampden and Tower 30
13. The Mesa Hampden and Tower (SE) 20
14. The Mesa Quincy and Tower (SW) 2
15. Summer Valley Ranch Quincy and Buckley (SE) 20
Source of Basic Data: Aurora Planning Department, individual development
Master Plans for study area, Aurora, Colorado, August 1982.
Proposed Neighborhood Commercial Sites (2)
Regional Shopping Center Demand Methodology
In order to determine specific market potentials for development of a regional shopping center to serve the growing population in the study area, the demand factors, such as growth projections and income expenditure patterns, and the supply factors indicated by the status of existing and proposed competition, must be compared. The final product will be the anticipated market capture and feasible developable square footage for a new center.
To accomplish this, the following methodology will be applied to several selected alternative sites within the study area:
Step 1: Identify trade area for specific site.
Step 2: Quantify projected household/population growth within trade area.
Step 3: Identify average annual household expenditure for retail goods.
Step 4: Assign capture rates for different types of goods that could be accomplished by a new center at specific site. Capture rates will be subjectively based on the quality and proximity of competitive centers and access features of site. Capture rates for each site will be determined assuming that no development of additional regional centers will occur at the other selected sites.
Step 5: Apply capture rates to average expenditure amounts.
Step 6: Assume that primary trade area capture provides 80% of total support. (A neighborhood center typically draws 90% of its support from the primary trade area. Since a larger center is proposed with a more regional scale, an 80% factor is assumed).*
Step 7: Convert the total dollar support to square footage demand using average sales per square foot as a conversion factor. (Table 24 shows annual sales per square foot for regional malls in metro Denver. Based on this data, an average sales per square foot factor of $100 will be used. This assumes that a regional center must accomplish minimum sales of $100 per square foot in order to be financially viable.)
Step 8: Convert square footage demands to acreage demands based on a floor area ratio of 20%.* **
Conway, Daniel M., interviewed by Eve Pines (THK Associates, Englewood, Colorado), September 1982.
**DeChiara, Joseph and Koppeiman, Lee, Uiban Planning.and.Design Criteria (New York, Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., 1975), pp. 427-431.
AVERAGE SALES PER SQUARE FOOT FOR
REGIONAL MALIS, 1977
Regional-Mall 2 Square ..Feet... 1977 Sales1 (in millions of 1977 dollars) 1977 Sales per.. Square Fobf
1. Aurora Mall* 1,149,800 69.2 $ 60
2. Buckingham Square* 787,300 85.4 108
3. University Hills 583,000 79.3 136
4. Southglenn 900,000 68.8 76
5. Cherry Creek 400,000 106.8 267
6. Cinderella City 1,286,000 91.8 71
7. Bear Valley 366,000 42.1 115
8. Villa Italia 1,600,000 88.5 55
9. Westland 1,050,000 145.2 138
10. Lakeside 567,000 50.1 88
11. North Valley 437,000 47.6 109
12. Westminster 382,900 13.3 35
13. Northglenn 757,250 127.8 169
Note: In 1981 the Aurora Mall had an average sales per square foot factor of $92. Buckingham Square had an average of $62. (Source = Aurora Sales Tax Division, 1981 sales tax records).
Source of Basic Data: University of Colorado, Institute for Urban and Public Policy Research,
"The Economic Impact of the Expansion of the Cherry Creek Shopping Center," May, 1982, p. 29; Luhrs, Kurt, "Retail, Office and Industrial Development in Aurora," Aurora Planning Department, March 1982, Aurora, Colorado, pp. 6-8.
Potential Regional Shopping Center Sites
Having examined supply and demand data related to the commercial market in the study area, it is necessary to pinpoint the specific sites within the study area that should be analyzed for regional shopping center feasibility. The market potentials would be expected to vary for different sites, depending on such factors as specific location within the study area, proximity to competition, and accessibility to major roads.
Based on the definition of regional and super-regional shopping center, it is assumed that a minimum of fifty acres would be required for development of a regional shopping center with 750,000 square feet or more. For comparative purposes, the Aurora Mall, with 1,149,000 square feet, occupies a 129.1-acre site, for a floor area ratio of 20%. As previously indicated, the remaining undeveloped land within the Aurora city limits is master planned by individual developers in Planned Community Zone Districts, with the predominant use being residential. The largest commercial site designated in these PCZD's is a 35.5-acre site at the intersection of Hampden and Tower Roads. This site is within the Hutchinson Heights residential area, and would be best suited to neighborhood-oriented commerical use.
Since no suitable site for a regional shopping center is available in the Aurora portion of the study area, potential sites must be identified in the unincorporated area of Arapahoe County. A critical consideration for regional shopping center site selection is availability of convenient access, typically along highways or major arterial streets. From a marketing standpoint, a regional shopping center should ideally be located at the intersection of two heavily travelled thoroughfares, preferably including a
limited access highway. Exposure to a highway is beneficial both for convenient access from a large market area, and for advertising purposes. It also helps to minimize the filtering of heavy traffic through residential areas to the shopping center.
Future road improvements planned to be undertaken as development progresses in the area include: extension of Belleview Avenue to Parker Road via Jordan Road; extension of Smoky Hill Road; extension of Arapahoe Road; extension of major north-south roads including Chambers, Tower, Picadilly, Himalaya, and Gun Club.
In addition to these, the eastern boundary of the study area in the vicinity of Gun Club Road is currently being considered as the likely route for the proposed C-470 Highway. The C-470 Highway is planned as a circumvential route around the north, south and east sides of the Denver metro area. Designed as a four-lane highway with expansion capabilities for six lanes, C-470 would simplify access to the eastern portion of the study area from the entire metropolitan region. It is estimated that this highway could be completed within twenty years, depending on the pace of funding.
Based on these factors it is recommended that two specific sites in unincorporated Arapahoe County be considered for Regional Mall Market potentials. One site (Site A) consists of 120 acres located southeast of South Parker Road and the point where East Belleview Avenue would meet South Parker Road if it extended straight to the east. This site is currently owned by the University of Colorado. The second site (Site B) consists of a vast tract of vacant land (exact acreage unknown) at the northwest corner of
Planned Major Road Improvements in Study Area
\ Proposed '*/ y C-470 Route
UNION PACIFIC R.R. t
AIRPORT Jii--------- p ..P.l
E. MONTVIEW BLVD._ .1 FITZSIMONS
E. COLFAX AVE.~
E. 36th AVE.
E. 26th AVE.
E. 6th AVE.
E. ORCHARD RD
E. DRY CREEK
E. COUNTY LINE
E. ALAMEDA AVE.
E. MISSISSIPPI AVE.
E. JEWELL AVE. ~ TX-, f-E. YALE AVE.
E. HAMPDEN AVE
E. QUINCY AVE. ERRY CREEK^r^
^ 1 SCALE IN MILES
Proposed C-470 Route
the intersection of Smoky Hill Road and Gun Club Road. This site is currrently owned by the Smoky Hill Land Co. A third site of unknown acreage, at the northeast corner of South Parker Road and East Arapahoe Road, also is a possible tract for study. This site is located 1 1/2 miles south of the University of Colorado-owned site, and is not being considered for this analysis, due to its direct competition with planned regional centers at 1-25 and Arapahoe Road.
Site A is surrounded by parcels of land that have been designated for residential development in the near future and is immediately south of the existing Aurora City limit, the fastest growing section of Aurora. Site B should not be considered for short term potentials, as new residential development will not reach the immediate area surrounding the site in the short term. While long term analysis would assume improvement of Gun Club Road to the status of major thoroughfare, the planned development of C-470 would greatly enhance this site's market potentials in the long term. At the time of this reasearch, a 760-acre site at the intersection of Gun Club Road and Quincy Road has been optioned by the Centennial Race Track as a possible fairgrounds and race track site. This indicates increased interest in developing the area surrounding Site B, and would increase the drawing power of Site B.
Potential Sites for Regional Shopping Center
E. COLFAX AVE.
E. 6th AVE.
E. ALAMEDA AVE.
E. MISSISSIPPI AVE. -
E. ) EWELL AVE.
E. YALE AVE.
E. HAMPDEN AVE.
E. QUINCY AVE.
E. BELLEVIEW AVE.'^I
E. ORCHARD RD
UNION PACIFIC R R. I
STAPLETON H T -
AIRPORT ___________ . .
I ------,l-^L_fcU.S. ARMYÂ£p%v-5T
E. MONTVIEW BLVD._ -.1 L FITZSIMONS^_!
E. 36th AVE.
E. 26th AVE.
Site B Primary Trade Area
E. ARAPAHOE RD.
\ f'r iSite A Primary-Z \ *; s^>'^rSite
V ITrade Area = '* I //jT-l'*.
E. DRY CREEK RD.
E. COUNTY LINE RD
COUNTY AIRPORT \ W>t, I
x v Y-r
o i __
SCALE IN MILES
Estimated ..Retail .Space,Pgnepd
Based on the status of conpetitive developments and locational features of the identified potential sites, it is possible to estimate the site capture rate of the retail dollar volume in the market area. The capture rates for Site A take into consideration the development of a competitive center to the east in the long term. The capture rates for Site B assume competition with a potential center on Parker Road. Tables 25 and 26 apply estimated capture rates for expenditure categories to projected households in the study area for 1985, 1990, and 2000. Long term projections are included because retail developers generally build in anticipation of future demand.
The study area represents the greatest source of retail demand for the two sites, but this will be supplemented by demand generated by the daytime population of workers employed in the area, and residents from immediately beyond the study area. For Site A this would include Douglas County residents using Parker Road, and additional passing traffic along Parker Road and Arapahoe Road. For Site B this would include rural households outside the trade area and residents of incorporated areas east of the Denver metro area. A neighborhood shopping center typically draws 90% of its support from the inmediate surrounding area. Since a regional center is being considered and since a number of sources potentially would provide secondary support, it is estimated that the study area will account for 80% of the total support at the two sites. Using this factor, as shown in Tables 25 and 26, it is estimated that a regional shopping center at Site A would generate sales of $52,164,000 in 1985; $71,570,250 in 1990, and $100,382,750 by the year 2000. Site B would generate estimated sales of $120,948,800 by the year 2000.
PROJECTED DOLLAR VOLUME FOR RETAIL CENTER AT SITE A
1985 1990 2000
Annual Expenditure Estimated.gite Dollar.Volume Dollar volume Dollar Volume
Expenditure Category per Average Household Capture Rate (33,600 Households) (46.100 Households) (71.100 Households)
Food at Home $6,480 5% $10,886,400 $14,936,400 $23,036,400
Food Away from Home $1,440 5% $ 2,419,200 $ 3,319,200 $ 5,119,200
Home Furnishings $1,440 15% $ 7,257,600 $ 9,957,600 $15,357,600
Clothing $2,520 15% $12,700,800 $17,425,800 $26,875,800
Personal Care $ 720 10% $ 2,419,200 $ 3,319,200 $ 5,119,200
Other Family Consumption $1,800 10% $ 6,048,000 $ 8,298,000 $12,798,000
Total Study Area Support $41,731,200 $57,256,200 $88,306,200
TOTAL DOLLAR SUPPORT $52,164,000 $71,570,250 $100,382,750
(assuming primary trade area provides 80% of total support)
NOTE: All dollar amounts are expressed in 1982 current dollars
PROJECTED DOLLAR VOLUME FOR RETAIL CENTER AT SITE B
Expenditure Category Annuel Expenditure per Average Household Estimated Site .Capture.. Rate Dollar volume (71.100 Households)
Food at Home $6,480 5% $23,036,400
Food Away from Home $1,440 5% $ 5,119,200
Home Furnishings $1,440 18% $18,428,900
Clothing $2,520 18% $32,251,000
Personal Care $ 720 10% $ 5,119,200
Other Family Consumption $1,800 10% $12,798,000
Total Study Area Support $96,752,700
TOTAL DOLLAR SUPPORT $120,948,800
(assuming primary trade area provides 80% of total support)
NOTES: Table assumes construction of C-470 by year 2000. All dollar amounts are expressed in 1982 current dollars.
The dollar volumes expressed in Tables 25 and 26 can be converted to square footage demand estimates using sales per square foot as a conversion factor. Table 24 showed 1977 sales per square foot totals for regional shopping centers in the Denver Metropolitan Region. These range from $35 to $169 per square foot. Aurora sales tax data indicates that during 1981 the Aurora Mall experienced gross sales totalling $106,342,316 or $92 per square foot and Buckingham Square sales totalled $48,622,487 or $62 per square foot. Based on this information, an updated estimate of $100 per square foot is a reasonable estimate for sales at the subject sites.
Using $100 per square foot, the following indicates projected supportable retail square footage at the subject locations:
Year Dollar Volume
Site. A Site B
1985 $ 52,164,000
1990 $ 71,570,250
2000 $100,382,750 $120,948,800
Supportable Square.floatage site A Site^
521,600 sq. feet
715,700 sq. feet
1,103,800 sq. feet 1,209,500 sq. feet
As shown, a regional shopping center with 521,600 square feet could be supported at Site A by 1985. By 1990, household growth would justify a 715,700 square foot center. A center with 1,103,800 square feet, qualifying as a "super regional" center would be supportable at Site A by the year 2000. A super regional center, with 1,209,500 square feet would be supported at Site B by the year 2000.
Assuming that gross leasable area represents 20% of the shopping center site area, a 60-acre site would be needed at Site A by 1985; a 82-acre site would be needed by 1990; and a 127-acre site would be needed by 2000. A 139-acre site would be needed at Site B to accomodate shopping center demands for the year 2000. Additional acreage could be used for complementary development, such as office, recreational and residential uses.
It should be noted that while Sites A and B both show market potentials for regional mall development, numerous unpredictable factors will affect the actual development potentials of these sites. Among these factors are:
1. Pace of development of residential areas and competitive commercial areas.
2. Timing of road inprovements and funding for construction of C-470.
3. Conclusions of on-going environmental iirpact study of Lowry Landfill, located north of Site B commencing at the northeast corner of Quincy and Gun Club Roads.
4. Availability of utilities; whether or not the City of Aurora would consider annexation.
Abbey, Douglas, "Beyond Cornfields: The Outlook for Regional Shopping Center Development," Real Estate Review. 1980, pp. 78-82.
Arapahoe County Planning Department, individual development Master Plans for study area, Littleton, Colorado, 1982.
Arapahoe County Planning Department, "Major Projects within the Araphaoe County Airport Influence Area," August 1982.
Aurora Building Inspection Division, "Building Inspection Report," 1972-1982, Aurora, Colorado.
Aurora Planning Department, "City of Aurora Zoning Map," Aurora, Colorado, September 1982.
Aurora Planning Department, individual development Master Plans for study area, Aurora, Colorado, August 1982.
Aurora Planning Department, "Land Use Survey," Aurora, Colorado, May 1980.
Aurora Regional Shopping Center Task Force, Memorandum to City Manager re: "Site Analysis for Regional Center," Aurora, Colorado, November 27, 1981.
BBC, Inc., Arapahoe County Denver Fiscal Flows Analysis: Progress Report (Draft), Denver, Colorado, 1982, p. 39.
Carrol, Bob and Pines, Eve, Aurora Planning Department, Housing and Population Estimates. Aurora, Colorado, April 1982.
Coldwell Banker Real Estate Co., The Commercial Real Estate Market in Denver, January 1981, Denver, Colorado, P. 5.
Colorado Division of Employment and Training, "Denver-Boulder IMA 1/Resident Labor Force" series, Denver, Colorado, 1960-1981.
Colorado Division of Employment Training, "Estimated Denver-Boulder IMA Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment" Series, Denver, Colorado, 1971-1981.
Conway, Daniel M., interviewed by Eve Pines, THK Associates, Englewood, Colorado, September 1982.
Crowley-Wbrthington-Bowers, Aurora City Center: A Marketability. Transportation. and Urban Design Study. Aurora, Colorado, August 1979, p. 12.
DeChiara, Joseph and Koppelman, Lee, Urban Planning and Design Criteria,
Van Nostrand Reinhold Co.. New York, 1975, pp. 427-431.
Denver Post, 1979 Shopping Center Preference Study, 1979.
Denver Regional Council of Governments, "1982 and 1986 Economic Forecasts for the Denver Metropolitan Area," Denver, Colorado, 1982.
Denver Regional Council of Governments, Regional Data Series; 1970-1980 Population Change bv Countv and Census Tract. Denver, Colorado, May 1981.
Donnelly, Charles, interviewed by Eve Pines, Arapahoe County Planning Department, Littleton, Colorado, September 2, 1982, 9-11 A.M.
Douglas County Planning Department, "Douglas County Population, Employment, and Growth, 1982 Update," prepared for Denver Regional Council of Governments, Castle Rock, Colorado, May 25, 1982.
Frederick R. Ross Co., Shopping Center Absorption Study;___Denver Metropolitan
Area. Denver, Colorado, December 31, 1981, p. 16.
Haselbush, Willard, "5 Major Stores to Anchor Mall," Denver Post, February 18, 1981.
Haselbush, Willar, "3 New Shopping Centers Planned," Denver Post. December 9, 1979.
Homebuilders Association of Metropolitan Denver, "Metro Homebuilder,"
January 1982, Denver, Colorado.
"How to Invest in Office Buildings and Shopping Centers," Real Estate Review. Vol. 12, #2, Summer 1982, p. 75.
Hughes, James W. and Stemlieb, George, Shopping Centers: USA. Center for Urban Policy Research, New Jersey, 1981.
Lincoln Company, Arapahoe County Airport Influence Area Economic and Market Forecast, prepared for Arapahoe County Planning Department, Littleton, Colorado, December 1981.
Lion, Edgar, Shopping Centers; Planning Development and Administration.
Wiley & Sons, 1976.
Luhrs, Kurt, Retail. Office and Industrial Development in Aurora. Aurora Planning Department, Aurora, Colorado, March 1982, pp. 6-8.
Mizner, Frank, interviewed by Eve Pines, Aurora Planning Department, Aurora, Colorado, August 25 and November 16, 1982.
Newkirk, Peter, telephone interview by Eve Pines, Denver Tech Center, Inc., Denver, Colorado, September 9, 1982.
"1981 National Expenditure Patterns," Survey of Current Business. Winter 1982.
Pines, Eve, Aurora Planning Department, Economic and Demographic Profile of Aurora. Aurora, Colorado, August 1982.
Pines, Eve, Visual survey of existing retail establishments in study area, September 1982.
Ragonetti, Tom, telephone interview by Eve Pines, Tri-Zee Corp., Denver, Colorado, September 1982.
"Retail Expenditure Breakdown," Sales Management. July 1982.
"Retail Space Needs Will Soar With Growth, Ross Says," Denver Business World. February 22, 1982, p. 14.
Schultz, Deborah, telephone interview by Eve Pines, Douglas County Planning Department, Castle Rock, Colorado, September 9, 1982.
University of Colorado, Institute for Urban and Public Policy Research,
"The Economic Impact of the Expansion of Cherry Creek Shopping Center," Boulder, Colorado, May 1982, p. 29.
"Urban Family Budgets and Comparative Indexes for Selected Urban Areas for Autumn 1981, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics News, April 1982.
Urban Land Institute, Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers:___12Â£1, New York,
New York, 1982.
Urban Land Institute, Shopping Center Development Handbook, Washington, D.C., 1977.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "C-40 Construction Series," 1972-1980, Washington, D.C.
U.S. Department of Connerce, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population. Washington, D.C., 1960, 1970, 1980.
U.S. Department of Commerce, "Consumer Price Index," September 1979 and 1982.
Wilkinson, Bruce, "MDC to Build 2,261 Homes in Southeast," Denver Post, October 28, 1982.