jefferson county cdoradc
already congested corridors.
According to the Denver Regio of Governments (DRCOG), failure to mass transit will precipitatei
â™¦Continuing urban sprawl and development
â™¦Increasing urban pollution- 1 I and visual impacts associate autos will continue to degra> quality of the urban environi i â™¦Continuing isolation of certi I segments of society* the youi the elderly, the poor, the hi , â™¦Increasing consumption of sci | resources, particularly petri â™¦Growing congestion with incr< economic losses caused by ac< lost time, less efficient vel operations, and decreased mol for regional, residents.
jeffcrson county Colorado
david philip brown university of Colorado master of architecture/urban design thesis
To make a mass transit Bystem the future pattern of growth must 1 decentralized centralization- a nui i activity centers of intensive deve] linked by rapid mass transit. This of growth would utilize the existii ; infrastructure, prove less taxing < i and mitigate the adverse effects ol urban sprawl.
Land use patterns, the resulting transit systems and the density and form of housing have more potential for energy savings than solar applications. Therefore, to resolve the apparent inconsistency of an alternative energy research institute which is dependent on automobile oriented inefficiencies, MESA will provide high density housing, shopping, employment, office, transient facilities, recreation and entertainment opportunities in a development designed to allow pedestrian access to SERI and these uses.
Such a unified mixed use development will allow for energy savings and economies of scale ingerant in an efficient infrastructure, destrict heating and cogeneration, shared walls and floors, and proximity of employment, housing and services. The density of this project would allow for the provision of a major mass transit facility, providing quick energy efficient transit to Golden, nearby activity centers, the west Colfax corridor, and tne Denver Central Business District.
The MESA site is split into apparent islands by I-?0, Colfax and a high voltage power line. The approved plan for the site by Denver West accepts this and calls for several unifunctional centersi an office park, shopping mall, light industry, shopping and hotel center, and an automobile agency cluster. Such a plan will continue sprawl, cause extreme traffic congestion throughout the area , and lacks cohesiveness.
Cost of Sprawl
mbtu/ypAnit 0 100 200 300 **00
from Calthorpe, PA:**i79, p.**5
DEHVER WEST Development Plan
Much of the Office Park and a car dealership have been developed. While these projects may be highly profitable and nicely landscaped, the overall urban design is uninspired. Zoning approval has been won by the developer. It is unrealistic to expect them to return to the county to submit a request for any planning changes-such action would be lengthy, risky, and costly. My purpose is to show an opportunity was missed. Hopefully, future opportunities similar to this one will be seized.
Design a mixed use development that can receive and organize a signifigant portion of Jefferson County's and metro Denver's growth through the year 2000 in such a way as to optimize it's environmental compatability, provide a sense of joy and identity and enhance the quality of life of those using the development.
The mixed use development, MESA, will be a community for 16,000 plus residents on 460 acres owned by Charles Stevenson (Chevrolet) , and in air space above 1-70 and US Highway 40 (Colfax Avenue).
MESA will create a pedestrian platform spanning 1-70 and Colfax. By bringing the high voltage power line below the surface of the platform and incorporating it into a coordinated utility distribution system similar to the one in the CBD(comparable land size), MESA will give the entire site unity. This unification allows for unimpeded pedestrian access to the entire site, for unhindered â€¢ delivery of utilities, and for the creation of an identity giving place. The linear nature of the platform will allow for efficient
phasing of the development over time. As described, MESA will provide an opportunity for SERI employees to live within walking/biking distance to work and other services/amenities, thus mitigating need for extensive auto parking at SERI. The identity of SERI can evolve together with MESA providing am opportunity for demonstration of energy efficient land use planning, infrastructure and building design in addition to demonstration of alternative energy applications.
The following ideas and concepts outline the associations, intentions, and sociopolitical Issues that must be satisfied in order to achieve a successful large scale mixed use project.
* ALTERNATIVE TO URBAN SPRAWL
create an environmentally benign pattern of urban growth that utilizes the existing infrastructure rather than its inefficient, costly extensions.
determine the transit flows and needs of MESA and appropriate alternatives. Design a project that provides for pedestrian and mass transit needs and minimizes negative impact of autos. Incorporate a major regional and community transportation facility.
is to be minimized thru land use design, design of structures and networks, and provision of recycling of wastes and energies.
â™¦SYMBOLICALLY RICH SYSTEMS
an urban identity- everyone is 'someone living somewhere', places not spaces, reinforcing cultural, not only functional roles. Provide sense of identity on various levels to users and occupants.
will be addressed in land use designi the reduction of the frequency and distance of auto trips, district heating
and co-generation, and use of appropriate scaled energy systems including solar and wind powers.
â™¦QUALITY OF LIFE
and human needs beyond commodity and firmness. To attempt through design to promote a sense of community, interdependence, informality and allow for the widest possible human experiences and expressions.
for the public sector, for the dev-oper, and for the users of the project.
to be determined by an analysis of site characteristics, adjacent uses, access limitations and opportunities and economic realities in an attempt to create a high density mixed use project that balances intensity and quietude.
with shared infrastructure, transit, distribution and mixture of land use and density to accomodate future growth so as to not disturb the overall structure or its support systems.
â™¦FORM, DENSITY, AND SCALE
shared walls, high density, mid and low rise. Determine an appropriate relationship of many energy efficient structures.
â™¦DOMINANCE OF THE PEDESTRIAN
design for the safety, convenience and positive experience of the pedestrian. The pedestrian circulation system will be continuous throughout the site making amenities and services convenient to all the users of the area. There is to be pedestrian, bicycle and equestrian
continuity across the major public rights of way. Jogging, hiking and riding trails are to be carried onto South Table Mountain and along the major water features, Lena Gulch and the Welch Ditch.
where appropriate, berms may be constructed along 1-70, Colfax, and Indiana to mitigate highway noise. Perimeter site uses are to be compatable with adjacent uses. By avoiding extensive buffering with greenbelts, a signifigant open space may be provided centrally along Lena Gulch offering relief to adjacent intensities and convenience to the entire site. Any schools should be adjacent to this major green space.
are to be constructed to provide storage for newly created runoff. Where possible these should be incorporated with the existing drainage patterns. Damning Lena Gulch will create signifigant water features and provide runoff storage.
All uses other than power generation, housing, and recreation are to be contained entirely within the mixed use center. This intensity is to be reinforced by some housing in/above the central, core itself- and the highest intensity residences immediatly adjacent.
Parking of cars takes up great amounts of space. Traditional development surrounds any facility with fields of asphalt creating islands of the use they serve. Gruen has pointed out the desirability of structured
parking as part of the shared infrastructure of mixed use projects (MXD).
Any sizable development, particularly one with varied uses, will tend to raise adjacent land values. If this land is held for future development rather than used for parking, greater overall returns are possible. In the short run, only 24 hours use of structured parking will tend to amortize its costs.
If all residents park their vehicles overnight in the core this will accomplish several goals simultaneously!
it will mitigate intrusion of vehicles in the rest of the site; it will promote pedestrian and bicycle circulation, chance meetings of peopleT thus reinforcing a positive social milieu; keep eyes on the streets and paths, thus insuring security.
Centralized parking will allow for low key mass transit-shuttles through the site. Elderly housing will already be close to the core so as to be in proximity to seniors needs. This may mitigate any need for extensive shuttles except along the spine itself. Centralized parking will assure activity in lower parking levels and on the pedestrian platform. This activity, in proportion to the frequency of individual participation, will create a pattern in the users mind stimulating a sense of identity for and with the core and the project as a whole.
The sum of the parts will be the generation of a community.
Golden has recently turned down unincorporation bids by residential neighborhoods adjacent to the MESA site. Golden fears thiswould overly burden their services and
Golden residents have little desire to share their own ample water supply. However, in exchange for revenues from a substantial tax base such as MESA, incorporation of ME3A is possible. Revenues would then be provided for the revival of downtown Golden. Once incorporated by the city, bonds for construction of parking or other amenities in MESA would be possible. Such a cooperative effort between Golden, RTD, SERI, and MESA could provide for the needs of each in a mutually beneficial manner.
MESA and some adjacentsites are currently serviced by the Consolodated Mutual Water District. To develope their capabilities to a level capable of servicing the intensive development forseen at MESA, Consolodated must purchase water rights, and expand treatment, storage and delivery systems.
This would cost MESA roughly $7*5 million for the water rights alone(5,000 Acre-feet at $1500 each). An alternative is the previously mentioned incorporation within Golden, thus gaining access to its supply and treatment facilities.
Another alternative exists! drill wells. Wells, treatment, and storage would cost roughly $9 million. However, there exists one potent benefit.
Of the three main subterranean aquifers in the Denver area, the Laramie-Foxhills is the deepest. The water from the Laramie-Foxhills comes up at 89Â°F. Such low grade heat may have signifigant potential for space heating, thus making the investment in drilling "well worth it."
Furthermore, MESA will integrate natural and man-made features, avoid looking outer
spacey or rigidly geometric, keep things colorful, alive, warm and bright, Colorado in character- open, expansive, informal, and oriented to outdoor life.
PROGRESSION OF THE MIXED USE CONCEPT
At age six, I developed an active interest in raixBd use projects when in 1958* my father brought home a model of his newest shopping center. The scale of the model was just right for my toy cars. Built over an abandoned gravel quarry in Dayton, Ohio, Dad determined it to be cheaper to put offices in the basement than fill the hole left by the quarry.
Above the offices was to be a pedestrian shopping precinct similar in form to Denver's Cherry Creek Shopping Center of 1952. Years later, as the center's apprentice carpenter/
painter/maintenance engineer, I became aware that such mixing of uses provided mutual support| employees and clients of offices and the public library below frequented restaurants and shops above. The open air mall allowed unimpaired pedestrian circulation throughout.
While attending college in Atlanta, I often visited Portman's Peachtree Center and Regency Hyatt House Hotel. When studying in London, I frequented the Foundling Estate in Bloomsbury, two apartment blocks over a shopping, office and entertainment center with basement parking.
After graduation, I worked for a firm in Colony Square, Cushmanâ€™s ambitious "micropolis" including two office towers, hotel, hi-rise condos and apartments above a shopping mall and structured parking.
At this time I was designing advertising and writing literature for Georgia and Atlanta political campaigns. The primary issues then, during and following Carter's tenure as governor, dealt with land use. How to deal, with the cancerous growth of Atlanta's suburbs proposals for an outer perimeter highway, and flash flooding due to excessive coverage in urban areas and second home projects in the mountains of north Georgia.
Studies indicated that MARTA, Atlanta's new subway system, would be helpless to offer a transportation alternative unless growth patterns changed to one with pockets of density servicable by rail. I have found this to be true in Denver as well.
These experiences led me to believe the best way to organize economical and environmentally considerate growth was to learn how to design and develop mixed use projects that would compete favorably with the status quo. I felt, and still believe the marketplace, not the legislature, is the appropriate arena to create vital and coherant mixed use developments. However,
government must structure its tax and. zoning laws as well as develop its own creatures to encourage and promote dense mixed use projects utilizing existing infrastructures.
The approved land use plan for "Denver West" calls for an assemblage of unifunctional centers. The project fails to relate one sector to another, to SERI, or to the surrounding community.
SERI too has seemingly failed to design a facility that fulfills the goals it holds for itself* (seri wants to)
"develop a facility which establishes a strong relationship with the people, the institutions, and the enterprises of the community.
(And to) convey the image that SERI is part of the community, not an ivory tower on top of the hill."
The development of MESA as an intensive mixed use project adjacent to SERI will enable SERI to satisfy its desires.
Victor Gruen in Shopping Towns, USA, Centers for the Urban Environment, and The Heart of the City discusses the negative impact uni-functional centers (shopping, education, office, civic and cultural and residential) have had on urban areas.
Gruen recognizes that within 20 years auto usage will be limited, thus planning for mass transit is incumbant. For this eventuality and for the internal subsidies, stability, returns on investment, operating efficiencies, sense of community and vitality, Gruen favors
MXD's. Mr. Gruen points out the economic and conserving characteristics of MXDs and their inevitable overlapping support systems.
Gruen proceeds to describe his version of decentralized centralization- a cellular urban organism. Such an organism allows for mass transit and car use. For the core center, (see next page's diagram) a parking platform would create a base for a pedestrian precinct; for the adjacent neighborhood cells, parking structures would project inward like fingers from perimeter roads, reducing walking distances and the negative impacts of surface parking.
However, due to the nature of mobile modem man, I felt with the dispersal of these many community and neighborhood centers, they would lack the vitality and economic support desired. Only one elementary school is to be needed by the entire project. Similarly, only one King Soopers adjacent to one Safeway would provide all the primary marketing, thus leaving only a few convenience services at local centers without a major draw.
Beyond internal organization and beyond the need for MESA to provide regional organization, I also felt, like the Piazza del Popolo in Rome, MESA could provide a major gateway to Denver and The Rockies. At the same time, I wanted to provide housing for SERI employees, workers employed at MESA, and for the many thousands of Coors employees and students/staff/faculty at the School of Mines currently unable to find residense close to Golden.
The adjacency to SERI, suggested that MESA should attempt to become a demonstration project of all types of energy conserving techniques and methods of energy generation and distribution. This could occur on three levels.
First, land use planning should be
designed to maximize pedestrian access t and proximity to as many goods, services and uses as possible- thus decreasing enforced mobility. Second, by district co-generation and use of waste heat and organized delivery methods, similar to the utility systems found at Disney World in Orlando, economy and efficiency of scale could be achieved. Thirdly, the design of each component of MESA should respond to the microclimate as much as possible to mitigate losses and to take advantage of any passive solar or wind generated opportunities. Also,
I hoped to provide for later implimentation of centralized waste capture for either recycling of components or generation of methane gas or other by-products.
Following the intentions of Ebenezer Howard and realizing the base dislike the project risers (probably will) have for manhattanesque urbanity, I wanted to provide sufficient space for recreation, gardening and elbow room; recreation and space being two of Colorado's main attractions and failure to provide these would lead to frustration of project users and occupants. However, I still wanted to create a high density, exciting, vital and efficient environment- an alternative to the sterile suburban sprawl and nonnurturing urban milieus.
During this period, I began two studies of the site. One of the ecological systems and one of the economic suitabilities. This information was used to generate a diagram of the site indicating land use suitabilities. This was applied to the economic analysis of the site and an optimum(economic and environmental) development program was created.
With the development program complete and the land vise suitabilities determined, my primary concern focused on the internal organization. To create a cohesive project the need for a dense mixed use platform spanning the interstate and carrying over Colfax seemed the best of all solutions.
Thus an urban fabric could be generated satisfying all intentions simultaneously! the creation of place, opportunity for choice in a setting of environmental compatability, and the re-establishment of an urban identity... one bringing the totality of life to all parts of the project.
Once a site is made available and the inevitable initial ideas and concepts are conceived, they must be tested for their approp-riatness. Initially an inventory of the site is made. This assessment reveals the opportunities and constraints presented by the physical characteristics of the land and its interrelationships with larger eco-systems.
The appropriate land uses on the site are thus determined.
The markets surrounding the site are then studied revealing potential types of development. The sum of research to this point is roughly equal to an environmental impact assessment. The appropriate land use analysis assess' the physical, geological and
entials analysis assess' the economic, political and social milieu in which
project development must occur.
The final development program is then determined by analyzing profit optimization, developer goals and capabilities, appropriate land uses, potentialities of development and ensuing ramifications in total. Each part will have moderating influences on the other. The final product then, is the optimum balance of these concessions.
APPROPRIATE LAND USE ANALYSIS
A ARTIFICIAL FILL- Includes uncompacted rubbish, dumped fill and compacted select fill.
B BROADWAY ALLUVIUM (PLEISTOCENE-PINE-DAIE GLACIATION)- Yellowish-orangish to light-brown sandy to clayey alluvium along small intermittent streams or cobbly alluvium along major streams. Contains fossil mollusks. Thickness about 25 feet. Brown soil of early Holocene age (Altithermal) in upper part. Terrace is 25-40 feet above modern streams.
C COLLUVIUM (UPPER HOLOCENE TO PLEISTOCENE)- Dark-gray to reddish-brown bouldery to sandy silt and clay on slopes in mountains and plains where it was deposited by gravity and sheet wash. Locally contains some alluvium. Generally thicker than 5 feet. Contains soil in upper part.
D DENVER FORMATION (PALEOCENE AND UPPER CRETACEOUS)- Yellowish-brown to grayish olive fluvial claystone, siltstone, friable sandstone, and conglomerate, and interlayered volcanic pebbles to clay containing a preponderance of boulder-sized angular volcanic blocks or rounded boulders. Sandstone and finer grained fluvial rocks are tuffac-eous and commonly weather to montmor-illonitic clay having low to high swell potential. Some fine-grained layers are unstable on slopes as gentle as 8Â°. Contains fossil leaves, dinosaur and mammal bones, and
silicified wood. Thickness 950 feet.
L LAND SLIDE (UPPER HOLOCENE TO PLEISTOCENE Landslides in the Precambrian rocksj earthflows below the middle shoshonite flow (of the Table Mountain Shoshonite) in Denver Formation on South Table Mountain. Most steep slopes in Denver Formation. Some slides are as old as Pleistocene.
P PINEY CREEK ALLUVIUM (UPPER HOLOCENE)-Dark-gray to reddish-brown humic clayey silt and sand containing layers of pebbles, generally in lower part. Underlain by older gravelly alluvium or bedrock. Grades upslope into colluvium. Contains upper Holocene weak brown soil in upper part. Thickness 5-20 feet.
Terrace is 10-20 feet above modern streams. Generally not covered by seasonal floods.
R ROCKY FLATS ALLUVIUM OR NEBRASKAN GLACIATION- Reddish-brown pebbly silt and clay interlayered with gravel. Gravel and stones deeply weathered, and, in upper part of deposit, coated by calcium carbonate, Very strong Brown soil of Pre-Bull Lake age developed in upper part. Thickness of alluvium 10-15 feet.
S SLOCUM ALLUVIUM OR ILLINOIAN GLACIATION-Moderate-reddish-brown pebbly silt and clay interlayered with gravel. Gravel contains larger and more abundant boulders near mountains than to east. Thickness about 15 feet. Contains fossil mollusks. Upper part of most deposits is overbank silt. The B horizon (clay enriched) of this soil commonly has a high swell potential.
V L0UVIERS ALLUVIUM- Reddish-brown pebbly to bouldery alluvium along permanent streams and sandy to clayey alluvium
along intermittent streams. Coarse alluvium is stained by manganese and iron. Thickness probably more than 25 feet. Terrace is about 65 feet above modern streams. Strong brown soil of post-Bull Lake pre-PInedale age in upper part. Alluvium contains fossil mullusks.
Geologic Information from GEOLOGIC MAP OF THE MORRISON QUAERANGLE, JEFFERSON COUNTY, COLORADO, by Glenn R. Scott, 1972, Dept, of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey.
Grey areas on the map indicate 1 "areas underlain by geologic units containing clays having swelling pressures higher than 2,500 p.s.f. potential volumn change. Preconstruction laboratory shrink tests are recommended in these areas."
White areas on the map indicate 1 "areas underlain by 5 or more feet of non-swelling surficial deposits which in turn are underlain by geologic units which may have higher than 2,500 p.s.f. Preconstruction laboratory shrink tests are recommended.
Interferance with natural drainages take place at great risk. When runoff is increased or concentrated in non-traditional drainage ways, slope instability and erosion may result. Long duration retention of runoff will act to mitigate adverse effects of development on the already overloaded Lena Gulch.
The direction a slope faces, slope aspect, determines micro-climate as a function of the resultant insolation, temperature range, humidity, wind and rate of snow/ice melt. Ultimatly, these causes determine drainage and vegetation.
As shown to the left, the entire site is within a fifteen minute walking distance of a centrally located RTD station and MXD platform,
( 300 ft/min. X 15 = 4500 ft = .85 mi.)
Mean annual snowfall 70"
Maximum 24 hr. precipitation 4.0" Annual mean precipitation 18.6" Maximum annual precipitation 26.0" Minimum annual precipitation 9Â»0" Annual average cloud cover 15 % Last mean frost May 20
First mean frost Oct. 1
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS
J 1088 0
F 902 0
M 868 0
A 525 0
M 253 0
J 80 110
J 0 248
A 0 208
S 120 54
0 408 5
N ?68 0
D 1004 0
During summer, day breeze is upvalley, evening breeze downvalley.
Winter winds are more complex with most strong events visually from the west.
Water may be supplied by the city of Golden if annexation is forthcoming, wells, or (most probably) by the Consolodated Mutual Water Company of Lakewood, Colorado, which currently services the areas east and south of Mesa.
Consolodated currently has two storage facilities adjacent to Mesa, one in the southern dog-leg portion of the site, one just north of the site. To service the anticipated demands of Mesa at build out, Consolodated must purchase additional rights and build new treatment and storage facilities. The likely location for storage is shown on the map to left. This location should provide sufficient pressure for firefighting and normal use.
Sanitary sewer service is to be provided by the Pleasant View Water and Sanitation District. Pleasant View provides trunk and lateral lines to Mesa, but treatment is provided by the Metropolitan Denver Sewage District #1.
A proposed 15" trunk line, parrallel to an existing 12" line running through Mesa, should be upgraded to a 2k" line to accomodate Mesa's needs at build-out.
GAS AND ELECTOIC POWER
Public Service Company of Colorado can provide natural gas and electricity to Mesa. PSC has a 20" high-pressure gas main crossing the northeast corner of South Table Mountain in an easement adjacent to the 100' power line easement. The gas main
can be tapped with a pressure reducing valve. Due to the Gas Attachment Scheduling Program of the Public Service Company, Mesa must make an application for service and be placed on a waiting list.
Electric power is available from the 13 K.V. distribution lines crossing the Mesa site.
BRIDGE ON 1-70
The location shown in grey, is the best site to span 1-70 or to place an interchange on 1-70. Lena Gulch is channelized at this point. To place the structure here would negate any further unnecessary interference with the Lena Gulch flood plain. This site is .7 miles from the nearby Colfax interchange to the southwest. Approval from the Colorado Department of Highways is possible.
Downtown Denver Stapleton Airport Boulder
Jefferson County Airport Golden
20 minutes 25 minutes 35 minutes 20 minutes 5 minutes 5 minutes
The map of open space is derived by an overlay of hazardous zones- flood plain, geologic hazard and excessivly steep slopes. The obvious desirability of keeping such areas open is both practical and aesthetic. These open drainages and slopes comprise much of the existing visual amenities offerred by the site.
That they remain unbuilt is important to assure resident and user safety and a measure of relief from the proposed high density development on the site.
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DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALS ANALYSIS
In many metropolitan areas in the nation, and in Denver inparticular, there exist large markets for all types of real estate development. Beginning in the sixties and continuing throughout the decade, interest in rational and sensitive development of the built environment has emerged along with a great desire for a stewardship of the natural environment. That the built and natural environments can and invert coexist in a harmonious manner and with mutual, recognition is a dominant condition in the current economic and political climate.
Rapid growth in Denver is taking place. For this growth to occur in a way that does respect the natural environs, it must occur in an orderly fashion, it must be marketable, and it must be acceptable to the body politic, Concern for efficiency and environmental acceptability tends to lead towards comprehensive multi-use projects. Such a project is politically acceptable sad financially would prove to be the most profitable of actions for both the developer and the public, ecologically, socially, and financially.
My primary reference in this section
has been OPTIMIZING DEVELOPMENT PROFITS IN LARGE SCALE REAL ESTATE PROJECTS, by Wilburn and Gladstone, published by the Urban Land Institute, 1972. Quoted matter is from that publication.
Basic to projects of large scale and mixed vise that occur over an extended development period, is complexity in the interrelationships of different uses, and the tendency to maximize opportunities in order to achieve initial and sustained cash flow. Since the land is suitable for a variety of uses, a procedure established by Gladstone has been followed in order to
"distribute the land among uses in a rational and optimum manner."
A. IDENTIFICATION OF APPROPRIATE USES
1. ZONING AND REGULATORY INFLUENCES USES i
Approval of a proposed project by the Jefferson County Planning Commission would take place as a Planned Development District. Mixing of any uses is permissible though all development must be under unified control, and other tenets of the P-D ordinance are adhered to.
No specitic restrictions exist.
However, historically the Commission has tended to attempt to keep density below 4 dwelling units per acre as outlined in the Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan.
Given the gas shortfalls forseen in the near future, and the growing cost of providing municipal services over scattered areas with low densities, and attitudinal change by the commission should be forthcoming.
15 to 25# of site acreage left in open space is desired by the commission. Over 25# of site acreage is anticipated to be allocated to open space and parks.
2. DEVELOPMENT IMPACT AND PUBLIC JURISDICTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
The fiscal impact of development of MESA on the Jeffco government would be a key factor in approval of the project. Traffic
would be greatly Increased. However, an Interchange on 1-70 in the middle of the project to service SERI is probable and will act to mitigate loads on county roads. Due to the project's proximity to another interchange on I-?0, the Sixth Avenue Expressway and Colfax, a fiscal burden on Jeffco is doubtful. Indiana Street connecting 6th to Colfax will probably have to be widened, possibly with developer assistance.
The physical configuration of the project itself, and the broad range of goods and services available within the project itself will greatly reduce the need and probability of external automobile trips, thus lessening burden on county roads, and greatly reducing the degeneration of air quality that would be inevitable should an equivalent amount of development be spread throughout the county.
Over the twenty year period of project development, need for only one elementary school is anticipated. The physical design of the project would preclude the need for bussing, a great part of the financial burden of education to the county. Required expenditures for roads, sewers, police and other services will be more than off-set by tax revenues generated by MESA. The compactness of the development itself will allow these services to be renderred in an efficient and cost effective manner.
MESA being in an unincorporated part of the county is an attractive potential revenue center for either the municipality of Golden or Lakewood.
The county has indicated that dedication of park acreage would not be acceptable to the county, but such park space must be provided, nonetheless.
3. PHYSICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DEVELOPMENT
The size of the parcel (460 acres, including air space to be utilized) indicates that in order to absorb the acreage within a reasonable period, a wide range of uses must be employed.
"The essence of the planning and decision process at hand is to formulate the optimum combination and Integration of use opportunities into a single cohesive project taking full advantage of interrelationships among uses and economies of scale in producing a high value overall offering."
Approximatly 17.2$ of the property is undevelopable, lying either in flood plain or in areas of geological hazard. The division of the site by 1-70 and Colfax are the only additional barriers to development. A high water table in the low parts of the site and shallowness of soil over bedrock preclude underground construction.
An opportunity to create a series of small ponds exist by damming Lena Gulch, which runs through the central portion of the property. Additional ponding by similar treatment of the Welch Ditch may be desired in an effort to retain runoff caused by development. Although Colfax and 1-70 trisect the site, the traffic they carry suggest the desirability and profitability of using frontage land for commercial, office industrial, distribution, park, and mixed use. Such land use would further buffer residential areas form noise and air pollution from these major arteries.
4. EXISTING AND PROJECTED LAND USE PATTERNS
1-70 is the aajor Mid-west to L.A. route. The MESA site would be the forst significant development to be encountered by those emerging from the mountains. Jeffco is the fastest growing part of the Denver SMSA, with 22% of the area's population to grow to 27% by 1980.
Development of most types has been heaviest in the suburban sections of the metropolitan area. Although significant office development has been occuring in downtown Denver, the suburban office market is strong. With the development of SERI adjacent to the site, demand for office and support facilities closeby is inevitable. With continued regional energy development, MESA's location adjacent to the foothills will be attractive for those travelling west regularly for geological and related work. Proximity of MESA to the Federal Center, make it a prime location for expansion of government offices. The location of the site straddling 1-70 and Colfax and close to 6th Avenue make MESA a good location for retailing and distribution. Quick access to the mountains and abundant recreational activities make MESA a prime site for residential development. Proximity to Golden, The Colorado School of Mines (whose Green Center is the area's second most used convention center), Coors and the previously mentioned facilities make MESA a good location for transient accomidations.
Lack of a spur rail line to the site preclude development of heavy industrial uses.
The apparent gasoline shortage will help MESA in several ways regardless of the overall effect on the metropolitan pattern of growth.
The variety of goods and services available at MESA and the location of MESA on the major mass transit corridor (Colfax) in west Denver will make MESA an attractive place to live and work during coming oil shortfalls.
The president's recently announced program to develops synthetic fuels and oil shale will increase the activity of these already booming Industries in Colorado. MESA offers a prime location for energy development activities.
5. DEVELOPER BUSINESS METHODS AND OBJECTIVES
One of the actual owners of the site,
MCA, is a publicly held and traded corporation and therefore under pressure to produce revenues for dividends. Their outlook will be signifigantly different than a large insurance company seeking long term growth.
My purposes are to show that a long term development can produce revenues in the short term, as will as substantial growth over the long term. Further, I hope to show that a coherent mixed use development on the site will be signifigantly more profitable for the owner/developer in both contexts, while not precluding a prime focus on the environmental and social aspects of the project.
While developer capabilities should be of major concern, I am assuming such management abilities and experienct to undertake a project of this scope and complexity.
B. ANALYSIS OF MARKET POTENTIALS
The propertyâ€™s size and location on 1-70 and adjacency to SERI sugest that the project will be a competitive force in the metro area. The project's marketability is a function of the growth prospects of the region and the Denver SMSA and the demand that will follow.
1. REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The Denver metro area is the major center of trade and finance in the region. The Denver area has experienced steady economic growth since i960. The attractiveness of the Denver region as a place to live and work has proven to be a major stimulus in attracting Industry involved in high
Conservative Population Projections Denver SMSA and Jefferson County 1950-2000
technology such as computers, aerospace, electronics, and other high value products. Denver has also attracted firms functioning regionally and nationally such as transportation, warehousing, data processing, oil and mineral exploration and processing, solar energy research and equipment manufacturing, and government. In spite of these strengths, Denver is not a relatively strong manufacturing area. Manufacturing accounts for a small percentage of employment and is declining relative to other employment sectors.
The emerging energy crisis and Denverâ€™s proximity to wide ranging exploration, research and production in this area will further reinforce Denver's growth and development as both a service and production center.
Over the past decade, the areafs 3Â»9# average annual rate of population increase
1950 I960 1220 1225 1980 1285 1 000 1225 2000
JEFFCO 55.68? 127,323 228,320 390,000 923,132 520,000 605.000 668,378 775,000
DENVER SMSA 612,128 929,323 1,219,000 1,521,000 1.675.771* 1.907,500 2.255, 125 2,919,272 2,699,500
JEFFCO /â€¢ of SMSA 9.1 13.7 18.7 22.9 25.2 27.3 28.1 27.6 28.7
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
JEFFCO 1950-60 12.9/- 1960-77 10.5'X 1970-80 S.5/ 1960-70 7.9.-
SMSA 5.2A 3.9/o 3.7,'o . 1 /"
has Bade Denver one of the nation's centers of gronth. Population in 1980 is projected to stand at 1,675Â»7?^Â»
Area population is concentrated in Denver and Jefferson counties, which together contain more than 55# of the SMSA, with Jefferson county representing 23# of the total.
One third of the past decades growth has been centered in Jefferson county, which has gained 20,000 persons annually.
It is anticipated that Jeffco will continue to capture one third of the metro growth thru the year 2000.
My population projections are more conservative than the figures supplied by the Denver Regional Council of Governments. The figures shown in these tables are derived from raw data available from census and DRC0G reports. From this data, I have determined trends and projected growth.
Since square footage for various real estate products are derived from these figures, I have used the less ambitious data.
Relative to the nation, Denver has a high percentage of contract construction, transportation, finance, and services employment. Manufacturing lags behind the national figures, while retail and governmental employment is similar to the rest of the country. Post-war trends of Colorado and Denver are similar.
Denver, in recent years, has had 1.5-2# less unemployment than the national average.
Mining and contract construction have been omitted intentionally as neither represent a real estate product that would be appropriate for development on the MESA site.
Population Trends by Sub-area
Denver SMSA 1960-1977 I960 1970 1977 AVG. ANNUAL CHANGE
ADAMS 120,939 185,088 290,700 6.0%
ARAPAHOE 100,529 162,193 295,300 8.5%
BOULDER 79,299 131,890 189,900 6.7%
DENVER 507.181 519,678 522,100 .002%
JEFFERSON 127.3^ 239,300 353.200 11.3%
SMSA 929.323 1,229.799 1.5^5.700 3.9%
Denver SMSA Employment (in thousands)
i960 r % 1965 TT % 19Z0 % F5 % TREND
Manufacturing 69.0 19.3 63.5 16.9 85.5 17.7 92.9 15.9 UP
Transportation 29.6 8.9 30.7 8.1 36.9 7-5 90.9 6.8 DOWN
Retail 81.9 29.6 99.2 25.0 118.9 29.5 150.9 29.9 STABILE
Finance 19.8 5.8 23.7 6.3 29.8 6.1 92.1 7.0 UP
Services 51.9 15.5 67.0 17.8 88.7 18.3 119.0 19.7 UP
Government 57.9 17.5 71.1 18.9 90.8 18.8 113.9 18.8 UP/STABILE
DRC0G Projections of Jobs to Population Denver SMSA
Total .'â™¦53 .981
Non-ag. .396 .921
% Non-ag. CO -Sâ€™ C'- co
Trends and Projections for Denver Employment 1980 198*) 1990
Population 1,675,779 1,907,500 2,155.325
% Non-ag. jobs .901 . 9o6 .911
Non-ag. jobs 672,000 779,995 885,829
As shown in table 18, only 53 percent of Jeffco workers actually work in Jefferson county; the rest work elsewhere. Applying this data to population projections the number of new jobs in Jeffco can be projected.
Jeffco Non-ag. Labor Force Projections (employed)
1980 198S 1990 199S 2000
Population *123,132 520,000 605,000 668,*100 775,000
It Non-ag. jobs .*101 .*106 .*111 .*116 .*121
Non-ag. jobs 169,676 211,120 2*18,655 278,000 326,275
Denver Employment Projections (in percent)
1980 ISIS 1320 1333 2000
Manufacturing 14.8 13-9 13.1 12.3 11.5
Transportation 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.6 4. 2
Wholesale 25.0 25.0 25.O 25.0 25.0
Finance 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.9
Services 20.9 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.8
Government 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0
Total (number in thousands) 672. 774.5 885.9 1,007 1.137
Jeffco Employment Projections workers, not jobs in jeffco in thousands
1980 ir- fo 1285 % po % 1225 # 2000 1 *
Manufacturing 25.4 15.0 31.0 14.7 35.6 14.3 38.9 14 44.0 13.5
Transportation 10.5 6.2 12.5 5.9 13.9 5.6 14.7 5 16.3 5.0
Wholesale 42. 3 25.0 52.9 25.0 62.3 25.0 69.4 25. 81.5 25.O
Finance 12.2 7.2 16.1 7.6 19.9 8.0 23.3 8 29.0 8.9
Services 35-^ 20.9 46.5 22.0 57.3 23.0 66.4 2*V 80.9 24.8
Government 31.8 18.8 39.9 18.9 47.3 19.0 52.8 19 61.9 19.0
Total 169.3 211.4 249. 277.8 326.2
Where Denver Jobs Are 1970
Denver Population % of SMSA 41.9 Jobs io of SMSA 66.5 % of own workers 159.0
Boulder 10.7 8.6 80.0
Adams 15.2 7.2 47.0
Arapahoe 13.1 7.5 57.0
Jefferson 19.1 10.2 53.0
Jeffco Job Projections (in thousands)
1977 1280 1985
11.8 13.5 16.5
5.0 5.6 6.6
19.3 22.4 28.0
5-5 6.5 8.5
15.5 18.8 24.7
14.6 16.9 21.2
1220 1995 2000
18.9 20.6 23.3
7.4 7.8 8.6
32.9 36,8 43.2
10.6 12.4 15.4
30.4 35.2 42.9
25.1 27.9 32.9
New Jobs in Jeffco per Period
Manufacturing I98O IT&7 1285 3.009 1222 2,400 1995 1.739 2000 2,727
Transportation 521 1.045 730 412 841
Wholesale 3.115 5.575 4,979 3.812 6.413
Finance 957 2,050 2,04l 1,808 3,020
Services 3.241 5.889 5.702 4,832 7.687
Government 2,284 4,304 3.897 2,897 4,874
Tables 21 thru 23 are based on 2.8 people per dwelling unit. Recent construction of housing in relation to recent population growth shows less than 2.8/du and due to increasing divorce rates and the declining rate of children per household, that ratio is likely to continue to decline Again the use of 2.8/du is a conservative factor.
New Population in Jeffco per Period
1990 1995 2000
85,000 63,378 106,622
New Dwelling Units in Jeffco per Period
1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-2000
34,595 30,357 22,635 38.079
6.919/yr 6,071/yr 4,527/yr 7,615/yr 8,348 in 1
Capture by MESA of New Jeffco Dwelling Units assume 7.")% to be conservative
Office Space Absorption Projections for Jeffco in square feet
MARKET ABSORPTION POTENTIALS MESA 1980-2000
I960 1981-85 1986-90 1291-25 1996-2000 TOTAL
APARTMENTS 1*>9 127/yr. 111/yr. 122/yr. lll/yr. 2,500
CONDOMINIUMS k 60 378/yr. 332/yr. 365/yr. 333/yr. 7.500
Total housing to date 609 3.131* (1985) 5.3^9 (1990) 7,779 (1995) 10,000 10,000
Total population to date 1.705 8,775 M.977 20,227 28,000 28,000
INDUS TRIAL 55,000 sf 20,000 sf/yr. 16,000 sf/yr. 11,000 sf/yr. 18,000 sf/yr. 380,000 sf
HOTEL 390 rooms (1985) 32N rooms (1995) ?ll* rooms
OFFICE 600,000 sf 98,000 sf/yr. 93,000 sf/yr. 76,000 sf/yr. 125.000 sf/yr 2,560,000 sf
RETAIL 1,000,000 sf 52,000 sf/yr. 53,000 sf/yr. 53.000 sf/yr. 68,000 sf/yr. 2,133,000 sf
2. ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
Due to recent growth, 500 acres per year are currently being absorbed in Jeffco for industrial uses. Figures given for Jeffco capture of workers discounts probable rise due to increasing cost of commuting.
Given the basic economic data and population projections, the market demand for the various real estate products can be determined, and capture of that demand by MESA estimated.
With the anticipation of Jeffco's population almost doubling by the turn of the century, new housing must keep pace.
Due to a declining water table, unreliability of providing basic utilities and services (such as fire protection), future growth in mountainous Jeffco will be slight and very expensive. Growth will be focused in those areas that are able to provide a wide variety of services and access to employment opportunities. These sites will include Golden, the Ken Caryl Ranch (Johns-Manville),
Mission Viejo's Phipps Ranch, intensification of existing developed areas such as Villa Italia, Wheat Ridge, Arvada, Broomfield, major transit corridors such as Hwy. 285, perimeter 225/480, and 1-701 MESA.
Conservative estimates indicate MESA can capture 10,000 units of new housing demand by the year 2000.
SERI plans to employ 2400 persons by the year 1985* I feel that given the alternative energy research nature of their work, many will find it philosophically and economically (not to mention convenience) desirable to live at MESA. This will enable them to walk or bike to work- and home for lunch.
Coors employs several thousand workers unable to find housing either in Golden- or as close to work as MESA. The same situation exists for students, faculty, and staff at the School of Mines.
These groups combined with retail, service, and office workers at MESA will create the majority of those seeking housing on the site.
Jeffco housing stock is roughly 75%
single family, 25# multi-family. In order to achieve a cohesive mixed use development,
and extrapolating current regional trends, all MESA housing will be attached. Housing at MESA Hill be approximately 75# condominium, 25# apartments.
Industrial space demand has almost doubled since the 1973 recession. Demand for this product is anticipated to be strong in the future. Currently, industrial and warehousing space is less than 2# vacantj contiguous warehousing and manufacturing space of 75,000 sf and up being in great demand. Access to western energy reserves and the trend in the Denver area for location of high value/pound manufacturing, such as instruments, photographic products, electronics, computers, machinery, and fabricated metals assure continued demand for industrial space. Transportation, services, wholesaling and warehousing have become major land users in industrial parks and centers. Many national firms in these sectors have established regional operations in Denver.
Denver has been rapidly absorbing office space in recent years in suburban locations as well as downtown. Study of relevant statistics indicate a demand for office space in the Denver and Jeffco markets, relating increases in office using employment
to required new office space on the basis of local space use per employee ratios. Projected employment increases in Jeffco have been related to this and indicate upwards of 90,000 sf/yr could be absorbed by the MESA project.
Due to the development of SERI, excellent access to 1-70, the mountains, downtown, the airport, and with the MXD development of MESA, office space in MESA should have a competitive edge over alternative suburban locations. MESA will offer favorable residential, entertainment, recreational, and shopping opportunities to executives locating offices in MESA.
Nationally and locally, vacancy rates are at their lowest since the early 50's.
With Denver vacancy rates below the national average and rents above the national average, office development appears to be highly attractive. With the spread of service type enterprises within the US economy and increasing efforts on the part of industry to curb pollution of the environment indicate further pressures for demand of office space.
Other studies indicate similar conclusions. Fulenwider forcasts a shortage of 2.35 million sf by 1982 even with the absorption of 3*8 million sf by then.
F.R. Ross sees the current demand as in the neighborhood of 4 million sf, with 2.1 million sf under construction downtown.
Bowes sees demand in the central business district as over 1 million sf a year for the next decade with much spillover into the suburbs.
With demand being high, the ecosystem and body politic unable to absorb increasing auto generated air polution, and lack of a strong mass transit system, office space developed in conjunction with a wide variety of real estate products would be very competitive.
Conventional wisdom Indicates that existing retail space is twice what the Denver Metro market cam support. However, given the projected growth in Jeffco, the concentration of uses at MESA and its location on 1-70, MESA should be able to develop and support over 2 million sf of retail space within the next 20 years.
This projection is supported by analysis of demographics, family incomes, anticipated primary, secondary, and tertiary trade areas, capture rates, and retail sales/sf trends nationwide and locally.
Analysis of transient accomodations markets nationally and locally indicate an absorption potential for 714 rooms of hotel/motel space within the MESA development. Even if another oil embargo were to strike, the site location on 1-70, in a state with a strong travel industry, and the proximity to SERI, signifigant office development, and the School of Mines, the second most utilized convention facility in the metro area, occupancy and room rates projections indicate such hotel development to be viable. This does, however, assume MESA's ability to capture 20# of Jeffco's new hotel space over the next 20 years.
3. SITE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALS
Annual market potentials have been determined for the MESA property, based on the understanding of the scale and character of regional economic and development patterns, and MESA's anticipated share of future development in each major real estate product line.
The resulting calculations of annual absorption potentials and capture rates reflect a detailed analysis of the portion of identified markets which the site appears capable of attracting given the anticipated economic circumstances in the nation, the region, and along the 1-70 corridor of Jefferson county.
The market potentials set forth do not indicate the projected program, but do show the possibilities for development in each use category. These possibilities will be moderated by developer objectives, physical constraints of the site, and the economics of each individual use relative to each other.
II. DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMING OPTIMIZATION
"Development programming optimization for MESA begins with establishing the developer's objectives in undertaking the project. The ultimate land use allocation is then determined so as to maximize realization of those objectives within constraints provided by the siteâ€™s physical holding capacity, market potentials, and the developer's resources and operating capabilities.',' Within that context, a specific technique for determining the land use allocation is applied. The index of relative profitability of developing land in a variety of uses is thus generated.
"Because the developer is motivated primarily to maximize profits in land development, static proforma use financial analysis will provide a sufficient basis for determining the optimum allocation of acreage among competing uses." Pro forma financial analysis for eawh use has been
developed and land prices have been calculated residually.
STAGING DIFFERENTIALS AMONG USES
"Net residual value is an appropriate index of the relative profitability of developing land for each use under consideration. Although net residual values includes raw land cost as well as profit on development, raw land may be presumed constant for all uses, and its inclusion will not disturb the allocation. Raw land cost could be deducted and a pure profit figure used if desired."
"Net residual values will be realized upon Bale of land for development in the various uses over and extended period of time. All such future values to be realized
must be discounted to determine the net present value associated with the realization of those values for the year of the sale."
"The discount of each net residual value at 15$ per year is an appropriate measure in light of the developer's reinvestment opportunities, the cost of capital, and the risk involved in the project."
These staging differentials were generated. When applied to the Market Absorption Potentials, they result in the optimum LAND DEVELOPMENT STAGING PROGRAM, table 35b.
A maximization of profits would call for elimination of industrial land utilization in favor of increased allotments for housing, office and retail. The development program of table 35b reveals the developers desire for a well rounded mix of uses to better serve the
table 35 b
Land Development Staging Program MESA 1980-2000
number or sf per year by year of projected development
land use 1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 total
standard 92 75 317
deluxe 36 30 ,. . 26 212
mid-rise 55 45 ... 40 480
Condominiums 426 355 . .. 3U... ... 231 ... 390... 6,861
standard 213 178 ... 155... . .. 116 . .. 195... 3,430
deluxe 85 70 ... 62 .. . 46 ... 78.... 1.373
mid-rise 128 107 . .. 94 . .. 69 ... 117... 2.058
Office 600,000sf 98,OOOsf... ... 93,000 sf. .. ... 76,000 sf 1,631,000 sf
Retail 11 ,000,000sf 52,000 sf.., ... 53.000 sf. . . . .. 53,000 sf.. 1,737,000 sf
Industrial 55,000 sf 20,000 sf. , 115,000 sf
Hotel 390 rooms 324 rooms
7870 dwelling units 22,000 population
area and the users of MESA itself.
The land development program is a preliminary map of future expectations. However, as the events, circumstances and opportunities of the future appear, the land development staging program can be changed to reflect the new realities.
One of the greatest drawbacks in an undertaking of this scale and complexity, is local government's inability to recognize the reality of change, and thus the slowness of approval by government of the developer's desires to make adjustments to the change in realities. For this reason, developers seek to build simple projects of use by right.
This governmental inflexibility is a major block in mixed use projects-projects which could act to organize metro growth, curb pollution, and enhance the quality of life.
The optimum profitability sought in table 35b assumes housing at an average of 45 dwelling units per acre, 1.631 million sf of office, and 1.737 million sf of retail.
Once potentially applicable housing types were designed, this high density was moderated in an effort to vary densities and texture of building and space. Totals for office and retail were moderated for similar reasons and due to efforts to hedge on market estimates. The initial inclusion of Indus trial/ware hous ing on the site was rejected. It is felt this use type can be found elsewhere. Inclusion of light industry on the MESA site failed to offer remuneration competitive with other uses, and light industry offered little to overall project cohesiveness.
REVISED LAND DEVELOPMENT STAGING PROGRAM MESA 1980-2000
number or sf per year by year of projected development
land use I960 81 82 82 84 85 86 82 88 8g 20 2L 22 2 32 2000 TOTAL
APARTMENTS 149 12? 111 1.117
CONDOMINIUMS 460 3?8 ,332 184... 110... 4.598
standard. (23 du/acre) 230 189 166 2,005
deluxe (l6 du/acre) 90 76 .. 66 ,74.... 948
mid-rise (46 du/acre) 140 113 , 100 ........ 110.... 1.645
Total housing to date 609 3.134 5.127 5.715
Total population to date l.?05 8,775 14,356 16,002
OFFICE 600,000 sf 98,000 sf 93,000 sf 1,276,000 sf
RETAIL 1,000,000 sf 52,000 sf 53,000 sf 1.525,000 sf
Horn 400 rooms 314 rooms ?l4 rooms
The REVISED LAND DEVELOPMENT STAGING PROGRAM reveals these compromises which suggest the nature of internal subsidies. Program is a function of the residual values of those housing types relative to all other uses. Any change in any component changes the entire program.
Alternatives can be programmed and generated by computer quickly to show relative desirability of various options. Planned Development District zoning should be modified to allow such flexibility as function of new realities and market circumstances.
I have attempted to outline the nilieu in development of the MESA site must take place. The trend that dominates is growth. The problem is organizing that growth so that it does not become a deadly cancer to its host, Denver, Jeffco and Colorado. Before addressing the solution, I will further define the context in which it must evolve.
FACTi According to Dr. Albert Bartlett (Am. J. Phys. Voli46, No. 9Â» p.876), world petroleum reserves will last roughly 20 years with shale oil perhaps lasting 30-40 years at current rates of growth,.consumption and production. At these rates, our tremendous coal reserves will last only 50-80 years.
Coal gasification, oil shale and major new finds do not change the fact they are nonrenewable resources. For our industrial/ technological society/economy to continue, it must evolve into a steady state, nogrowth economy based on renewable resources! solar, geothermal, bio-mass and wind energies.
FACTi American agriculture is highly dependent on oil. As oil supplies diminish, so will agricultural production. As petroleum and petro-chemical products increase in cost, so will agricultural products.
FACTi First world priorities are roughlyi 1. housing
In the more crowded, less affluent parts of the world, priorities arei
Individuals in Hong Kong for example enjoy roughly l6 sf/person in their dwellings.
FACTi Zero population growth does not exist in the United States. Legal and illegal immigration, a declining death rate, and a neo-baby boom (due to the babies of 1945-60 coming of child bearing age, combine to sustain the U.S. rate of growth about 1J6.
It will take 50-70 years to lower this rate to zero, levelling U.S. population between 360-420 million.
The program for MESA indicates completion by 1994. Although MESA attempts to accept and organize a portion of Jeffco's and Denver's growth, that growth will continue after build-out. MESA is not a cure all, rather only a part of an approach towards mitigating the negative effects of the growth problem. The real solution is to end growth (malignancy) entirely.
Before a steady state- no growth economy emerges, the following will come to passi
â™¦Pressures on MESA from growth and declining non-renewable resources will continue through 2050.
â™¦Front Range growth during that period must be contained within and serviceable by the existing infrastructure in order to protect agricultural lands and curb commuter caused pollution.
â™¦Food will replace housing as the #1 priority for Americans
â™¦Agricultural productivity will decline with the declining availability of oil.
â™¦Agricultural production will return to labor intensiveness.
â™¦Housing space/person will decline.
MESA, as a microcosm of the nation, must attempt to become an organism in a state of dynamic equilibrium. The program through 1994 is a guide to development in the short term. How the program is executed
COMING SHORTFALL OF AGRICULTURAL LAND
(agricultural land available is decreasing due to its conversion to urban and other uses, between 1950 and 197^* 27 million acres, about the size of Ohio, so changed.)
DECLINING PRODUCTIVITY OF AGRICULTURE DUE TO THE COMING SHORTFALL OF PETROLEUM
must plan for evolution to long range needs and functions. In the long term, MESA must attempt to approachi
â™¦agricultural self sufficiency.
Although self sufficiency is doubtful, an intensive gardening program would provide a beneficial suppliment.
â™¦recycling of materials, specifically water and organic wastes (for use as fertilizer).
â™¦In early years, MESA will be equally auto and pedestrian oriented. Eventually, (20-80 years), MESA will be pedestrian oriented internally with external movement supplied by mass transit.
If alternative energy sources are proven to operate cars (once oil dwindles), the parking in place will continue to serve as parking. Otherwise much of the parking must be convertible to other uses.
â™¦Energy self sufficiency from solar, wind,geo-thermal, bio-mass and renewable resources. Application of research from SERI would be appropriate.
â™¦MESA's importance as a regional focal point for trade, services and research may diminish over time (50-100 years). Therefore, as MESA approaches self sufficiency,it will best protect investment in MESA.
â™¦Security for MESA lies in diversity.
As long as many major loses co-exist at MESA, the effects of change or dislocations in a given use will be moderated. Vulnerability lies in overspecialization.
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE
The areas indicated to the left should be left open for future gardening, composting and similar agricultural vises. The central area should remain in recreational use as long as possible. Should one of the other areas be required to converted to residential use, it should be the area north of 1-70. This area offers a southern slope aspect and potential for passive solar heating, possibly from attached greenhouses used for food production. All areas indicated, are servicable from the existing agricultural ditch, Welch Ditch.
The development of MESA must parrallel the evolution of any ecosystem. 1980 is the birth, the establishment of a foothold. 1981-91* is the period of adolescence, the development and climax of a diversified organism. For MESA to thrive in maturity beyond 199*+Â» this diversification is necessary. This course will provide a strong position to fight any die-off. It will assure a re-growth should a limited die-off occur. Given the strength of the location, longevity should be assured.
MAJOR MOVEMENT SYSTEMS/NODES
Ai shortest access from 1-70 to SERI
Bi best location for interchange
CÂ« shortest access to Colfax from either SERI or the Interchange
Di best location on Colfax for an RTD facility...central MESA location and shortest distance from SERI
Ei node at intersection of movement from Golden
Fi node at intersection of movement from sixth avenue...location of existing holiday inn
Si SERI, the solar energy research institute
Given appropriate uses for various parts of the site, a program for development, the trends and the problems, the solution must above all relate to the movement systems in and around MESA. It is the national and regional movement systems which have given the site a wealth of potential, for use. MESA must use these systems and their interaction with MESA's internal systems as the primary organizing force in the development of MESA.
Along with flow along the front range corridor (1-25)â™¦ the migration into the Rocky Mountains from Denver and points east can be seen as the central organizing forces in recent development of Denver. Granted, the metro area sprawls in all directions. However, the weekend exodus west fixes the path of 1-70 in the psyche of those who use it repeatedly.
The pilgrimage along 1-70, and Golfax/US 40, links Denver to the most sacred spots in Colorado, the Rockies, and recall the procession along the panthenaic way to the Acropolis.
The point of intersection with 1-70 (point B), responds to several demands on the movement system. First, it occurs where Lena Gulch is already channelized, precluding further interference with the gulch. Second, it offers the most direct and shortest access route from 1-70 to SERI (A) and from Colfax to SERI (C). Thus points of intersection of these movement systems, B and D, suggest themselves as primary nodes for the MESA MXD.
In similar fashion, the thrust from Golden along Old Golden Road intersects
Colfax at point E; movement from the 6th avenue expressway along Indiana intersects Colfax at point F.(an existing Holiday Inn). Points B,D,E,F, and S (SERI) are the major nodes, intersections, and termini for primary movement through MESA. The major uses, magnets such as SERI, hotels, department stores, and the RTD mass transit facility should be placed at these points or in positions acknowledging their importance. Such placement will reinforce the dominance of these locations and the movement between them. The planning, urban design, and architectural design of MESA is not so much the forming of bodies in space as it is the orchestration of sensations while moving through space.
According to Edmund Bacon, the points of connection between systems of movement should be places of "special, emphasis and design enrichment" (Design of Cities). On the regional scale, MESA the point of connection of 1-70, Colfax, Old Golden Road (and the Sixth avenue expressway), is such a place. Within the MESA-SERI-Holiday Inn complex, the points described are such special places.
Over the development period, the increased use of roads will bring the need for the following changes!
1-70 Now 4 lanes, increase to 6. Within 1000' of access points, 10 lanes, 5 in each direction, will provide 2 on/off lanes at each ramp.
Colfax No changes, current 4 lanes are adequate.
Indiana Now 2 lanes, widen to 4.
Old Golden Road No changes, 2 lanes adequate.
Sources for water have been previously discussed* At 204 gpd/capita, the current rate in the neighborhood, daily demands would be t
3*26 MGD average 8.16 MGD peak
In order to retain sewerage effluents for agricultural uses, eventual use of dry aerobic toilets is desirable. This will reduce water demands for domestic purposes allowing extensive gardening.
Storage facilities should be located as noted on page 21.
jAll pedestrians to have access :continuity throughout the MESA â– site above and adjacent to Ivehicular movement.
Peds to School
Due to decreasing rates of childbirths, smaller families, people waiting longer to marry, only one elementary school will be needed to service residents of MESA. At build-out, numbers of school age children are as follows!
892 elementary ^28 jr. high school ^40 high school 1,760 total
The elemtary School should be located adjacent to the central park along Colfax. This will allow easy access for service, a central location to keep walking distances to a minimum, and recreational facilities that may service the general population as well as those of school age.
The size of the MESA development suggests potential for a co-generation system similar to that found at Disney World in Orlando, Florida.
Electric power could be generated on site by conventional means and supplemented by wind power if feasible. Additional electricity can be purchased from Public Service Company.
Waste heat from generation can be distributed thoughout the MESA site for domestic hot water, space heating, and for absorption chillers for air conditioning.
Solid wastes can be collected by a vacuum transportation system thus allowing central compaction and collection.
Potentials for resource recovery shoud be studied.
Ducts for distribution of all services should be grouped together and located beneath or adjacent to pedestrian circulation paths. These utilidors should be fitted with detachable covers for eause of maintenance. Waste heat and lost heat from ducts will further act to melt snow and ice from pedestrian walk ways.
Land Use Allocation
Open Space â– 79.0
Mixed Use: 115.5
TOTAL 463.0 acres
NET AREA 459.7 acres
The trends indicate growth. The problem is to organize that growth allowing for its orderly assimilation.
MESA, as the solution, must relate to the regional and local movement systems, its physical context and adjacent land uses, yet satisfy program demands and developer objectives.
As previously noted, I intended to design a centrally located MXD platform. This core was to include some housing, but most of the residences would be distributed throughout the site. In order to fully develop the program (due to relative values by use),
I designed three housing types of varying densities (16 du/acre townhouses, 23du/acre walk-ups, ^6 du/acre midrise). My intention was to place the highest densities adjacent to the MXD core, then decrease intensities towards the edges.
These housing types and site organization failed in several ways. Not heeding the warnings of Bacon, I assumed that the large scale problem could be solved by repitition of a smaller scale solution. The spaces created were not varied enough. The building types multiplied lacked vitality, and could not respond to changing physical and economic needs over the development period and beyond.
In the years to come, people will place
less importance on housing as population increases, costs rise, and lifestyles continue to change.
The housing type of the future, long and short range, is the housing type needed today. As pointed out by Kisho Kurokawa and the Metabolists, Norman Foster, the Archigram Group, Jon Johannson, Bucky Fuller and others, the house must be conceived of as capable of evolving, It must be disigned to be adaptable.
Housing as process requires dwellings whose interior arrangement, exterior, and systems components can be removed, replaced, altered or updated independently of its neighbors. Just as the car is separated from the road, the dwelling unit and support structures must be finaneilly and structurally separated from each other and from the land.
The precise details of the system have yet to be determined. The support structure can range from party walls and floor slabs to a triangulated megastructure. Ownership can be conventional or a lease like service contract for the dwelling unit and/or its components. As Fuller predicted, housing may become a service industry, similar in structure to the (Bell System) telephone company.
The built form of MESA, like Rockefeller Center, results from compromises in the attempt to combine conjestion with light and air, profit with aesthetics, and the ideal.
with the feasible on a specific site with specific parameters.
The MXD mall includes several projects simultaneously! housing, offices, shopping mall, mass transit station, and parking.
One intention was to combine these uses into a form that would provide a pedestrian "bridge spanning the basin (formed by Lena Gulch) containing Colfax and 1-70. This "bridge" would connect the several portions of the site with each other and the projects immediatly adjacent to the MXD mailt SERI, housing, hotel/convention center, park/recreation center, school/library/community center. Beneath the pedestrian "bridge" is to be parking. As the basin deepens, it is to be filled by additional parking levels.
Parking is to be discontinued in the 1-70 right of way.
The main pedestrian level, and utilidor level will continue in the air space above 1-70, Colfax and Old Golden Road. The lowest floors, being furthest from the main pedestrian mall and shopping levels, may be reserved for residents, and employees; the upper parking levels, convenient to retail levels, for high turnover retail customers.
In order to bring abundant light and air into the parking platform, it is punctuated with lightwe11s. No parking space is further them 60' from natural light. Vertical circulation is contained in each lightwell.
All parking, for the MXD mall and adjacent housing, is to be contained in the MXD center. The parking requirements areÂ« RETAIL 7,500 spaces
APARTMENTS ON MALL 1,500 ADJACENT HOUSING 7,000 TOTAL 20,500 spaces
19*536 parking spaces are provided, apparently short of the number needed at buildout. However, a 24 hour evaluation would reveal not all 20,500 spaces are demanded at the same times.
DAYTIME PARKING DEMANDS
RETAIL 7.500 spaces
APARTMENTS ON MALL 500
ADJACENT HOUSING 2,500
TOTAL 15*000 spaces
4,536 surplus spaces
Enough surplus spaces exist to provide parking for SERI's 2500 employees and visitorsi perhaps in exchange for federal funding of those parking spaces.
NIGHTTIME PARKING DEMAND1
APARTMENTS ON MALL HOUSING ADJACENT SERI TOTAL
1.000 spaces 1,500 spaces
7.000 spaces 100
12,600 spaces 6,936 surplus spaces
The day and night surplus allows a margin of error; one capable of correction in latter phases of construction. If thes prove in early phases to be surplus spaces, and if mass transit supplants signifigant auto use, not all 19,536 spaces planned need be constructed.
TOTAL RETAIL AND MAJORS
957,300 square feet 1,572,100 square feet 1,241,200 square feet
PARKING 5670' level 1,032 spaces HOUSING 5757â€™ level 168 units
5680' level 1,908 5767â€™ level 168
5690â€™ level 2,532 5775' level 55
5700' level 5,484 5785â€™ level 55
5710â€™ level 5,028 5791â€™ level 94
5727' level 1,036 5801â€™ level 94
5737â€™ level 1,008 5807â€™ level 201
5747â€™ level 1,008 5817' level 201 units
MAJOR STORES 19,536 total spaces 1,036 total units
A 168,600 square feet B 130,000 C 176,400 D 140,000
614,800 total square feet
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2 5752 RETAIL
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FINAL AfESk SITE PLAN
I EPILOGUE I
Is MESA too big?
Are Rockefeller Center, the Omni, Embarcadero Center, Peachtree Center, Renaissance Center, Place Bonaventure or Crown Center too big?
MESA, like the others and like industrial man, attempts to blend density and dignity-common support (infrastructure) and the individual desire for the tranquility of the uninhabited- standardization and variety/ uniqueness. Perhaps better sequences of space could be composed if the uses were broken up.
However, in order to accept as much of Denverâ€™s growth as is financially, physically, environmentally, politically and socially possible, a starting point in the debate over appropriate scale must be offered. I cannot imagine MESA being a much larger entity.
Nor can I imagine as much open space, variety, or flexabilty being offered by alternativesâ€¢
The solution lies between Soleri and sprawl. The final actual product will be as large as is financially, socially, politically, and physically possible-for profit motives and economies of scale.
Such a scale is desirable. It permits mass transit and wide variety of goods, services, jobs, recreation, and housing within the limits of the pedestrian.
The final product will probably be this sideof MESA as proposed. MESA offers a good point to begin/continue the discussion.
Hopefully, MESA is not too large. Portmanesque elements of design, those appeailing to all the senses and the varying
scales of design will make MESA comprehendable and enjoyable. MESA attempts to provide flexability, variety, choice, intensity and respite. MESA, hopefully, would not approach pathological overcrowding or orwelllan controls.
Perhaps MESA is too large. Like the Anastase, optimum structural sizing would permit passive solar orientation for most spaces, minimum surface/volumn ratio and pedestrian access to all spaces. However, given interrelationships of site, circulation, uses, financing and socio-political forces, such a description is probably too simplistic.
Given the energy shortage, mixed use neighborhoods offer potential for social cohesiveness, Zh hour vitality, security, energy efficiency and a viable alternative to suburban sprawl. Activity Centers provide a model for the form the growth of Denver and other cities should take. Mixed use activity centers should be the focus of any local, state, or national urban policy.
Large government and private employment centers that sire newly developed or improved should attempt to approach MXD characteristics, thus allowing economies of scale and inherent energy efficiencies. Federal, state and local laws and programs should be evaluated and structured to promote such an end product.
This re-structuring may very well fall within the provinces of the President's proposed Energy Mobilization Board (to cut through local red tape).
For this nation to become energy independent or even efficient, the country must channel new development and re-development towards the form of high density mixed use projects.
Any barriers to MXD's, then, loom as rivers to be bridged on the road to energy independence and economic stability.