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Assessment of the air pollution impacts resulting from development of the central Platte Valley

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Title:
Assessment of the air pollution impacts resulting from development of the central Platte Valley
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Hare, Karen J
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English
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ii, 110, [24] leaves : illustrations, charts, maps ; 28 cm

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Subjects / Keywords:
Air quality management -- Colorado -- Denver Region ( lcsh )
Transportation -- Planning -- Colorado -- Denver Region ( lcsh )
Air quality management ( fast )
Transportation -- Planning ( fast )
Colorado -- Denver Region ( fast )
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bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 34-35).
General Note:
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree, Master of Planning and Community Development, College of Architecture and Planning.
Statement of Responsibility:
Karen J. Hare.

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University of Colorado Denver
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Auraria Library
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
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15581005 ( OCLC )
ocm15581005
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LD1190.A78 1986 .H3635 ( lcc )

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Full Text
Assessment of the Air Pollution Impacts Resulting from Development
of the
CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY
ARCHITECTURE & PLANNING " AURARIA LIBRARY ^
Karen J. Hare


*
ASSESSMENT OF THE AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS RESULTING FROM DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY
by
Karen J. Hare
/
A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Master of Planning and Community Development
University of Colorado at Denver Denver, Colorado
May 1986
Date Due
.IIIL1 7 1989


i
t


This thesis, prepared by Karen J. Hare, is approved and accepted as partial fulfillment of the requirements of Master of Planning and Community Development.
Dr. Beniie Jones, Committee Chairman Associaster"Professor, University of Colorado at Denver
Herbert H. Smith, AICP, Committee Member
Assistant Dean/Professor, College of Design and Planning
University of Colorado at Denver


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author wishes to extend sincere thanks to her thesis committee for the many months of review, recommendations and guidance:
Dr. Bernie Jones, Chairman
Associate Professor, University of Colorado at Denver Herbert H. Smith, AICP
Assistant Dean/Professor, College of Design and Planning, University of Colorado at Denver
Joseph C. Tempel
District VI Environmental Manager,
Colorado Department of Highways
Gratitude is also expressed to Cathy Young for excellence in the typing of this document, and to the author's co-workers at CRS Sirrine for their valued professional input.
Lastly, the most heartfelt appreciation is extended to the author' parents for planting the seeds of achievement and personal fortitude, and for their continued encouragement and love.


TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
List of Figures................................................. i
List of Tables.................'................................ii
Chapter One - Introduction
1.0 Thesis.................................................... 1
1.1 Defining the Problem ..................................... 1
1.2 Methodology............................................... 2
1.3 Organization ............................................. 3
Chapter Two - Air Pollution Background
2.0 Introduction ............................................. 4
2.1 Air Pollution - Description............................... 4
2.2 Automobile Emissions ..................................... 6
2.3 Historical Perspective ................................... 7
2.4 Federal Legislative Involvement...........................12
2.5 Summary...................................................18
Chapter Three - The Air Pollution Problem of Denver
3.0 Introduction............................................ 19
3.1 Pollutants Affecting Denver.............................. 19
3.2 National Comparison of Pollutants by SMSA.................24
3.3 Factors of Air Pollution..................................32
3.4 Current Mitigative Efforts .............................. 48
3.5 Summary...................................................56
Chapter Four - Future Air Quality in the Central Platte Valley
4.0 Introduction..............................................58
4.1 Central Platte Valley - Description.......................58
4.2 Central Platte Valley Concept Plan ...................... 62
4.3 Future Land use Percentages...............................65
4.4 Air Pollution Computer Models.............................67
4.5 Summary...................................................85
Chapter Five - Alternate Solutions to Reduce Air Pollution
5.0 Introduction..............................................87
5.1 Alternative Development...................................87
5.2 Comparison of Alternatives .............................. 93
5.3 Summary...................................................97
Chapter Six - Recommended Alternative
6.0 Introduction..............................................98
6.1 Criteria for a Successful Transit System ................ 98


Page
6.2 Supplementary Techniques to Restrict Auto Use..........106
6.3 Thesis Conclusion. .................................... 108
Appendix A - Platte Valley Development Committee................A-l
Appendix B - Model Results......................................B-l
Appendix C - Strategies for Reducing Pollution..................C-l
Appendix D - Chapter Endnotes ..... ........................... D-l
Appendix E - Bibliography............’..........................E-l


Page
25
33
38
40
42
45
47
49
50
51
59
60
74
78
79
89
90
91
103
104
105
LIST OF FIGURES
#
Contributions to Pollution Levels .........
Six-County Denver Region...................
Historical Development.....................
Six-County Area Growth.....................
Total Vehicles Registered .................
Fuel Consumption and Emissions Relationship
Levels of Service .........................
1971 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service . . . .
1979 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service . . . .
1985 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service . . . .
CPV Study Area.............................
CPV Current Zoning.........................
Average Trip Length .......................
Assumed Transportation Network.............
Receptor Location .........................
Alternative 1 General Layout...............
Alternative 2 General Layout...............
Alternative 3 General Layout...............
Community Accessibility ...................
Comparison of Rights-of-Way ...............
Transit Network ...........................
l


Page
8
11
21
23
26
27-29
31
41
43
61
92
LIST OF TABLES
#
Elements of Automobile Emissions..............
Population and Vehicle Registration Comparison
Effects of Carbon Monoxide....................
Effects of Ozone..............................
National Ambient Air Quality Standards. . . .
Pollutant Concentrations by SMSA..............
Summary of Air Quality in Denver - 1985 . . . Mean Vehicle Registrations Per Household. . .
Average Vehicle Occupancy ....................
Existing Land Uses in CPV ....................
Model Input for Alternatives 1-3..............
i i


CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.0 THESIS
Within the boundaries of Denver lies the largest undeveloped parcel of urban land in North America - the Central Platte Valley (CPV). Development of this land, utilizing traditional land use/transportation relationships, will result in severely degraded air quality. This thesis views growth of the CPV as a unique and exciting opportunity for Denver, yet asserts that for air quality to be significantly improved, dependency on the automobile must be altered. Nontraditional methods of transport must be incorporated 'into the physical design of the Central Platte Valley.
1.1 DEFINING THE PROBLEM
An acceptable level of air quality is a common public goal and, in theory, can be relatively easy to attain. In practice, however, it is not easy because air is inherently a common pool resource. Garrett Hardin explains a common pool resource as:
... a resource for which there are multiple owners (or a number of people who have rights to use the resource) and where one or a set of users can have adverse effects upon the interests of other users.'*'
1


Air is a common pool resource because it benefits all and cannot be
excluded from use by others. The common pool of air over Denver is
currently a significant problem. The "tragedy of the commons" is
evident by the "brown cloud" (a brown haze of polluted air that
hovers above the City) and continued nonattainment of air quality
standards. The motorist, as the prime contributor to this problem,
gains freely from the use of an automobile while sharing only
minutely the responsibility for the public problem of degraded air.
Hence, the motorist has little incentive to act individually toward
a solution, for by foregoing personal transportation and using less
polluting methods, the advantages of the auto are given up at
2
significant cost and for little overall benefit. It is only when the majority of the commons participates that clean air is attainable.
1.2 METHODOLOGY
This paper is not intended to prove that the air Denver residents breathe is substandard; this is assumed as a given and is well documented by various public agencies. Rather, this thesis should be viewed as a policy statement offering methods for reducing the vehicle miles traveled within the CPV, thereby improving the air.
A basic understanding of air pollution and its health effects is considered essential to this thesis. Information relating to air pollution was gleaned from the vast body of information available
through library research. Discussion tracing the evolution of laws
regulating air pollution was derived primarily from the Colorado
2


Revised Statutes. Primary data, in the form of computer modeling, was used to substantiate statements regarding the future air quality of the Central Platte Valley. The remainder of the information was obtained from the innumerable books and articles on the topic and interviews with experts in the air pollution control and
transportation fields.
1.3 ORGANIZATION
Chapter Two defines air pollution and identifies its sources. The evolution of legislative air pollution control efforts is reviewed.
Chapter Three focuses on the Denver Metropolitan Area and compares its air quality of recent years to that of the nation. The causes of pollution specific to this area are examined.
Chapter Four narrows the study focus to the Central Platte Valley. Projections of air pollutant emissions are made based on future land use and trips generated in the CPV.
Chapter Five is a discussion of transportation options to reduce pollutant loading and includes a matrix comparative analysis of alternatives.
Chapter Six concludes the thesis by providing a recommended pollution control alternative and summary.
3


CHAPTER TWO
AIR POLLUTION - BACKGROUND
2.0 INTRODUCTION
Air pollution is "the presence of foreign matter... in the air which is detrimental to the health and/or welfare of man."'*' Effects to people can be in the form of eye irritation, reduced visibility, impairment of breathing and mental functioning and aggravation of illnesses such as asthma, bronchitis and emphysema. In severe doses, air pollution can cause death. Other effects include the deterioration of human-made structures and materials and the destruction of crops.
The purpose of this chapter is to provide an informational and historical backdrop to the current air pollution problem. Since the focus of this thesis is air pollution caused by automobiles, it will be beneficial to have a general discussion of air pollution and vehicle emissions. A historical perspective will show that air pollution is not new but the sources have changed. Lastly, legislative action of air pollution control in the United States since the 1950's is reviewed.
2.1 AIR POLLUTION - DESCRIPTION
There are two basic forms of air pollution - particulate matter and
gases. Particulate matter is particles of solid or liquid
4


substances in a wide range of sizes which either float in the air or settle very slowly. Examples include dust, smoke and mist. Particulate matter may absorb, scatter or reflect light. This can result in reduction of light available for photosynthesis and heating as well as decreased visibility. Gaseous pollutants are widely dispersed toxic molecules such as carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide and hydrocarbon vapors.
Air Pollution Effects
Effects of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter on the human respiratory system are:
o increased resistance to air movements in and out of the lungs;
o decreased ability of lungs to get rid of foreign matter;
o adverse changes in the respiratory tissues; and
2
o increased susceptibility of lungs to disease.
Air pollution adversely affects humans in many ways besides endangering health. In 1979, it was estimated to cost $100 million a year to paint steel structures damaged by air pollution.5 Commercial laundering, cleaning and dyeing of fabrics soiled by air pollution cost about $240 million while the damage to agricultural crops and livestock was estimated at $500 million.4 Another effect, to which no value can be assessed, is the aesthetic deterioration of the environment in the form of obscured view and unpleasant odors.
5


Air Pollution Sources
Air pollution is caused by numerous sources, which can be categorized into three types:
a) Single or point sources - These are rather large and easily identified sources such as a power plant, petroleum refinery and steel mill.
b) Area-wide or multiple sources - These represent a large number of smaller sources which individually do not
contribute significantly to the air pollution but
collectively become a major pollution problem.
c) Line sources - Freeways, highways and arterials carrying a steady stream of moving vehicles contribute line sources of air pollution.
2.2 AUTOMOBILE EMISSIONS
Over 214 million tons of air pollutants are released into the atmosphere annually in the United States.^ Many air pollutants
are a direct result of the incomplete combustion of fuels, including coal, oil, natural gas and gasoline. Transportation-caused pollutants released into the atmosphere account for over 60% of the total U.S. air pollution.^ Of the total pollutants caused by
people nationwide, approximately 75% of the carbon monoxide, 50% of the hydrocarbons and nearly 50% of all oxides of nitrogen emissions
7
come from the automobile.
The engine of an automobile requires two factors as input in order
6


to obtain the desired product of power. The engine requires fuel (gasoline) and air to burn the fuel. The components of fuel and air are:
Engine Input - Description Gasoline:
nearly 100% Hydrocarbons
Air:
78% Nitrogen 21% Oxygen 1% Other Gases
As mentioned, power is the desired product to drive the vehicle. Power is not the only product, however, there is also heat and exhaust. Excess heat is distributed through the radiator and is harmless. The exhaust consists of burned gases and particulates which are emitted into the atmosphere. Some of the emissions are innocuous but the remainder are harmful pollutants. Table 2-1 lists the elements of emissions generated by a gasoline-powered vehicle.
2.3 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
"As soon as I had gotten out of the heavy air of Rome and from the stink of the smoky chimneys thereof, which, being stirred, poured forth whatever pestilential vapors and soot they had enclosed in them, I felt an alteration
g
of my disposition." Seneca, Roman philosopher, 61 A.D.
Air pollution is not a phenomenon of recent technology. The introduction of pollutants into the atmosphere is related historically to the use of fuels such as wood and coal to provide
7


TABLE 2-19
ELEMENTS OF AUTOMOBILE EMISSIONS
Automobile Emission Description
Carbon Dioxide CCO2) Colorless, odorless gas; often used in carbonated beverages.
Carbon Monoxide (CO) Pollutant - colorless, odorless, toxic gas.
Hydrocarbons (HC) Pollutant when combined with sunlight - raw or partially burned gasoline.
Nitrogen (N) Excess or unburned air.
Nitrogen Oxides (N0X) Pollutant - toxic gas, eye irritant; produces smog when combined with HC and sunlight.
Oxygen (0) Excess or unburned air.
Particulates (TSP) Pollutant - suspended matter; cause of visibility and health deterioration.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Pollutant - odorous, colorless gas.
Water Vapor Combustion product; seen on a cold day.
8


heat, light and propulsion. Upon the early mastery of fire, tribesmen filled the air inside their dwellings with the pollutants of incomplete combustion. The invention of the chimney aided in directing pollutants from the dwelling but for centuries the open fireplace was the source of smoky emissions. The first known government attempt at air pollution control occurred when coal burning was prohibited by law in areas of London in 12 7 3.^^
The shift to an industrial civilization significantly increased the burden of pollutants in the atmosphere. Lewis Mumford describes the industrial cities as "dark hives, busily puffing, clanking, screeching, smoking for twelve and fourteen hours a day...Industrialism, the main creative force of the Nineteenth Century, produced the most degraded urban environment the world has yet seen...
The reciprocating steam engine was a revolutionary breakthrough and had a profound effect on the advancement of technology. However, with coal as the primary fuel for the steam boilers, it also became a major contributor to the significant increase in air pollution both in Europe and North America. Atmospheric pollution in industrialized urban centers typically reached critical proportions.
During the Twentieth Century there have been great changes in the technology of both the production of air pollution and its control. The steam engine fired by fossil fuels was replaced by the electric motor as the principal means for operating machinery. The
9


replacement of coal by oil in many applications decreased ash emissions.
Technological changes such as this altered the type of air pollution dramatically. Unfortunately, the proliferation of automobiles with gasoline-powered internal combustion engines has given rise to the nature of our present day air pollution problem.
The first automobile regularly made for sale was manufactured by the Duryea Motor Wagon Company. Charles Edgar Duryea began building his automobile in Springfield, Massachusetts where it became successfully operable on April 19, 1892.15
Since that time, the automobile rapidly gained in popularity and became a very influential force in American lifestyle. Table 2-2 compares, by decade, the growth of population with the number of automobile registrations. Between 1900 and 1980, population growth of those over 18 years of age remained relatively consistent, increasing each decade by 111 to 26%. Vehicle registrations, however, fluctuated widely. The largest percent increase of 57561 occurred between 1900 and 1910, soon after the advent of the automobile. An overlay of major historical events would explain the smallest percent increase between 1930 and 1940. The Great Depression, commencing October 29, 1929, sent America into difficult economic and social times. Post war prosperity led to tremendous urban and, eventually, suburban growth. The last four decades show increases of vehicle registrations between 441 and 511 while
10


TABLE 2-2
POPULATION AND VEHICLE REGISTRATION COMPARISON
Total U.S.
Year Population *
1900 45,379,000
1910 57,346,000
1920 66,839,000
1930 80,069,000
1940 91,763,000
1950 104,624,000
1960 116,146,000
1970 135,177,000
1980 164,055,000
Inc. Total U.S. Vehicle Registrations
26% 8,000
17% 468,500
20% 9,239,161
15% 26,749,853
14% 32,453,233
11% 49,161,691
16% 73,768,565
21% 108,435,903
155,889,692
% Inc. Persons Per Registered Vehicle
5756% 5,672.4
1872% 122.4
190% 7.2
•21% 3.0
51% 2.8
50% 2.1
47% 1.6
44% 1.25
1.05
* 18 and older. (Source: Historical Statistics of the U.S.,
Bureau of the Census, 1975; and Statistical Abstract of the U.S., Bureau of the Census, 1984.) **
** Private and Commercial, Publicly Owned Automobiles, Buses, and Trucks. (Source: Ward's Automotive Yearbook 1985, 47th
Edition.)
11


population only increased between 11% and 21%. The most dramatic trend is evidenced when the total population over age eighteen is divided by total vehicle registrations. In 1900 there was one vehicle registration for every 5,672 persons. Vehicle registrations increased at a rate far greater than population so that by 1980 there was one vehicle registered for nearly every person in the nation eligible to drive.
2.4 FEDERAL LEGISLATIVE INVOLVEMENT
Air Pollution Acts
Although serious known episodes of air pollution in the United States occurred as early as 1930, the U.S. federal government did not begin its involvement in air pollution control until 1955 with the passage of the first federal air pollution law. The following is a chronological listing of federal air pollution legislation.
1955 - Public Law 84-159: The Air Pollution Control Act
authorized the Public Health Service of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare to establish a program of research, technical assistance and training to state and local governments. Research was completed through contracts with other Federal agencies and by grants to universities. State and local air pollution and health departments cooperated by conducting field investigations.
12


1959 - Public Law 86-365: Funding for air pollution research
was extended to 1963. Research continued to focus on establishing a greater understanding of the technical and economic details of the air quality problem.
1962 - Public Law 87-761: This action provided another
two-year funding extension for air pollution research.
1963 - Public Law 88-206: Passage of the Clean Air Act
signified significant federal effort. Congress emphasized its philosophy that the prevention and control of air pollution at its source is the primary responsibility of the state and local governments. Federal financial assistance and leadership was also deemed critical in the development of
local control programs. The essential elements of the Clean Air Act are:
1. The acceleration of research investigations and training.
2. Matching grants to state and local agencies to establish or strengthen air pollution programs.
3. Federal authority to abate interstate pollution.
4. Control of air pollution originating in federal facilities.
1965 - Public Law 89-272 : The Clean Air Act was amended to
provide federal authority to establish standards for
13


controlling emissions from new automobiles.
1967 - Public Law 90-148: The Air Quality Act passed by
Congress; the act amended the 1963 Clean Air Act and served to expand the existing air pollution control laws. The new provisions included:
1. The establishment of atmospheric areas throughout
the United States on the basis of climate,
meteorology and topography.
2. Requirement for state and local control agencies to
establish air quality standards consistent with the national air quality criteria and recommended
control techniques previously established. A time table for compliance was issued.
3. State and local agencies could establish emission
standards which achieve a higher level of ambient
air quality than those previously recommended.
1969 - Public Law 91-137: Under this action, funds were
appropriated to continue the fuel and vehicle research program of the 1967 Air Quality Act. The National Environmental
Policy Act also passed in 1969.
1970 - Public Law 91-604: The passage of this act amounted to
nearly a complete revision of the 1963 Clean Air Act as amended by the 1967 Air Quality Act. The federal government's role in enforcement increased as emissions from automobiles
14


became specifically regulated. The amendment required the state and local governments to shoulder the responsibility of air pollution prevention and control. The newly created Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was given authority to direct the program.
Each state was divided into Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR's) and then required to submit for EPA approval a State Implementation Plan (SIP). The SIP was to describe methods
which the AQCR would undertake to achieve primary and secondary pollutant standards within the prescribed
timeframe. Primary standards were set to protect human health and secondary standards were established to protect public welfare. One of the most significant features of the act was the requirement that by 1975 auto manufacturers reduce the emissions of new cars by 90 percent, a figure based on estimates of the pollution reduction necessary to protect human health.^
Related Acts
While attempting to control air pollution, the federal government was also involved extensively in financially aiding highway and mass transportation development. The following two acts affected air pollution control:
1964 - Urban Mass Transportation Act (UMTA): The federal
government first entered the mass transit field in 1964 with
15


the passage of the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964, 49 U.S.C. Section 1601-11. Grants were made available for purchases of equipment by existing transit companies or to enable public agencies to buy out private transit companies.
In addition, new transit systems, such as the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit project, were funded from UMTA grants. Those concerned with air pollution considered any new transit project a gain in the effort to diminish the adverse environmental effects of automobiles.
1970 - Public Law 91-605: The federal government began
assisting states in construction of roads with the Federal-Aid
Road Act of 1916^. Sensitivity to environmental impacts of
highway construction was not seen until the Federal-Aid
Highway Act of 1970. Congress incorporated a provision
requiring that "the Secretary of Transportation shall assure
full consideration of possible adverse, economic, social and
environmental effects resulting from any federal-aid ..16
project."
This eventually led to the required preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS). If it was determined that the proposed project would have significant and
irreversible impacts, the final EIS may not be adopted. Federal dollars could not be spent on a project without an approved EIS.
16


The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970 made highway funds
available for "transit-related facilities such as exclusive or
preferential bus lanes, bus-passenger loading areas and fringe
and transportation corridor parking facilities to serve bus
17
and other public mass transportation passengers." The
Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1973, Public Law 93-87, substantially increased the funds available for mass transit projects from the Highway Trust Fund.
Assessment
This brief overview of legislative involvement reflects the concern of air quality over the recent decades. After a weak start in the mid-1950's, air pollution control rose to its apex in the 1970’s, rising with the environmental movement characteristic of that decade. The outcry from industry bemoaning the expense of pollution controls, coupled with the recession of the late 1970's and efforts to rescind the laws, resulted in weaker enforcement. Areas unable to attain standards were given time frame extensions more than once. This continued leniency from EPA cast doubt on the seriousness of the air pollution regulations.
The seriousness of these regulations is no longer being questioned in the Denver metropolitan area. Denver has been identified as a
nonattainment area by EPA and given until 1987 to reach air quality standards. If standards are not met, the Denver region will likely lose $60 million dollars in federal highway and sewer funding. The features of Denver's air pollution and its attempts to reach
17


attainment are discussed in Chapter Three.
2.5 SUMMARY
The intent of this chapter was to define air pollution in general and then focus on transportation-related air pollution. A historical perspective showed how the sources of air pollution changed over the centuries, in relationship to the advancement of technology. Lastly, federal legislation was reviewed to see how control of air pollution was handled on the national scale. The
next chapter will focus on the air pollution problem and methods of control in the Denver Metropolitan Area.
18


CHAPTER THREE
THE AIR POLLUTION PROBLEM OF DENVER
3.0 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to look more closely at air pollution in the Denver area, its cause, and the methods currently utilized to mitigate the problem.
3.1 POLLUTANTS AFFECTING DENVER
Several pollutants affect Denver's air quality. The Colorado Air Pollution Control Division currently monitors nine such pollutants:
1. Carbon monoxide (CO) 6. Lead (P^)
2. Ozone (03) 7. Sulfates Cso4
3. Nitrogen dioxide (NO^) 8. N i trates (no3
4. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) 9. Nitric oxides
5. Particulate matter (TSP)
Of these, there are three pollutants which violate EPA standards and cause the greatest concern as health hazards. They are carbon monoxide, ozone and particulates.'*' A brief description and health effect of each of these three pollutants follows.
19


Carbon Monoxide
Description - Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless,
tasteless gas resulting from the incomplete combustion process. In
?
urban environments, CO is by far the most abundant pollutant. Urban carbon monoxide is produced primarily by motor vehicles. In Denver, over 90% of the CO emissions are from vehicular sources."* The remainder originate from other combustion sources such as heating, incineration and power generation.
Health Effects - Carbon monoxide deprives the body of oxygen by
reducing the blood's oxygen carrying capacity, thereby lowering the
volume of blood distributed to various parts of the body. The
effects are headaches, loss of visual acuity, and decreased muscular 4
coordination. It can dull thinking, cause dizziness and
drowsiness, and impair exercise capacity. Extreme bodily saturation of CO can result in coma, brain damage and death."* Table 3-1 displays the effects of CO with given concentrations.
Ozone
Description - Ozone is a colorless, odorless gas at normal ambient concentrations. It is formed from the sunlight reaction of chemical
hydrocarbons (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both emissions of
vehicular exhaust. The highest ozone levels occur during the
summertime when strong sunlight and stagnant meteorological
conditions cause this pollutant to remain in one area for an
extended period.
20


TABLE 3-1
EFFECTS OF CARBON MONOXIDE*
Concentration Exposure
ppm Time Effects
5 20 i minutes Reflex changes in the higher nerve centers
5 to 10 Average levels of CO in most large cities
30 8 hr or more Impairment of visual and mental acuity (five percent carboxyhemoglobin)
70 to 100 Maximum levels occurring in some large cities
200 2 to 4 hr Tightness across the forehead, possible slight headache
500 2 to 4 hr Severe headache, weakness, nausea, dimness of vision, possibility of collapse
1,000 2 to 3 hr Rapid pulse rate, coma with intermittent convulsions, and Cheyne-Stokes respiration
2,000 1 to 2 hr Death
* All effect levels pertain to healthy individuals. Specific effect levels for individuals who for other reasons are approaching the levels of tolerability are not available.
Source: Interstate Air Pollution Study, Phase II Project Report,
Part 4 - Effects of Air Pollution. U.S. Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare. December 1966.
21


Health Effects - High levels of ozone in the atmosphere can impair
the mechanical functioning of the lungs,^ especially in persons
who exercise. It can also alter visual acuity and increase the
7
calcification of bones, resulting in premature aging. See Table 3-2 for effects at various concentrations.
Particulate Matter
Description - As described in the previous chapter, particulate matter consists of small particles of solid or semi-solid material. Sources of particulate matter, sometimes referred to as total suspended particulates (TSP), are motor vehicles, stationary sources
O
and fugitive dust. Two sources are causing increasing concern -
diesel vehicles and wood-burning stoves and fireplaces. Due to the
nature of particles in the air to block and scatter sunlight, they
are "the cause of Colorado's most apparent air pollution problem -
q
the brown cloud."
Health Effects - The human respiratory system filters out about half of the particles, but the smallest can be deposited deep in the lungs. The accumulation of these particles can slow the exchange of oxygen with carbon dioxide, resulting in shortness of breath. Some particles, particularly those emitted from vehicles, may be toxic or carriers of toxic substances. There has been increasing evidence that particulate matter "may contain mutagenic or carcinogenic compounds.
22


TABLE 3-2
EFFECTS OF OZONE
Concentration _____PH!_____
Effects3
0
0.01
0.02 for 8 hr. 0.03 for 8 hr. 0.05
0.05 for 1 hr. 0.10 for 1 hr.
0.05
0.05^
0.10
0.1 to 0.25 long term 0.10 for 8 hr. 0.20 for 3 hr. 0.60
1 for 1-1/2 hr. 3 to 12 for few hrs.
Ozone considered radiomimetic -- no safe level.
Odor threshold of ozone.
Damage to tobacco'leaves begins.
Significant damage to tobacco leaves.
Nose and throat irritation threshold.
Damage to tobacco leaves begins.
Significant damage to tobacco leaves. Pine tree needle tips burned.
Threshold for eye irritation in sensitive people (ambient oxidant).
Generally stated eye irritation threshold for normal people (ambient).
Reduction in oxygen consumption and blood oxygen tension (concentration) levels of emphysema patients, compared to effects on some patients breathing filtered air (ambient).
Shortens life span, increases mortality of guinea pigs.
Definite symptomatic effects in sensitive people.
Decrease of visual acuity.
Cough irritation threshold, pronounced nose and throat irritation.
Coughing, irritation, severe exhaustion.
Lethal to small laboratory animals.
As determined from laboratory experiments using ozone except where otherwise noted. Ambient measurements are for "total oxidants".
0.25 ppm by the phenolphthalin method.
Source: Interstate Air Pollution Study, Phase II Project Report,
Part 4 -- Effects of Air Pollution. U.S. Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare. December, 1966.
23


Figure 3-1 displays the percentage of contribution to pollution levels from various sources. Approximately 931 of carbon monoxide emissions, 85% of hydrocarbon emissions (which photochemically react to form ozone), and 37% of nitrogen oxide emissions in the Denver area are contributed by motor vehicles. Although motor vehicles contribute only 7% of particulate emissions, automobile traffic is responsible for an additional 68% of particulates through roadway surface deterioration.
3.2 NATIONAL COMPARISON OF POLLUTANTS BY SMSA
Denver has long enjoyed a national reputation as being a youthful, healthy city in the pristine setting of the Rocky Mountains. That reputation is rapidly changing as the air pollution over Denver worsens.
When compared to all Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's), the Denver-Boulder SMSA has some of the highest pollutant concentrations in the nation. Table 3-3 is a listing of the current National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) established and enforced by EPA. The standards for CO, 0^ and TSP on this table should be used as the base goal for which to compare Table 3-4. This next table compares EPA-reported pollutant concentrations of CO, 0j and TSP of all SMSA's in the 1-2 million population or greater range.
24


Figure 3-1
CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLLUTION LEVELS FROM VARIOUS CATEGORIES IN THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE AREA
SOURCE
0 10 20 30 40 50 . M 70 80 90 100^
1 I I I I I l I I l I
| AIRCRAFT
10 STATIONARY SOURCES
MOTOR VEHICLES
AIRCRAFT
CUTBACK ASPHALT
STATIONARY SOURCES
MOTOR VEHICLES
X
AIRCRAFT SPACE HEATING â– â– â–  MOTOR VEHICLES â– â– â– â– â– â– I STATIONARY SOURCES
SP'
SPACE HEATING MOTOR VEHICLES STATIONARY SOURCES
FUGITIVE DUST
Woodburning information was not available when this inventory was prepared. New data will become available in 1985-86. , ' • -•
Source:
Colorado Department of Health, Air Pollution Control Division. Report to the Public - 1985, p. 11.


TABLE 3-3
NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS (NAAQS)
POLLUTANT
AVERAGING TIME CONCENTRATION
Particulates (TSP)
Lead (Pb)
Carbonide Monoxide (CO)
Ozone (O3)
Nitrogen Dioxide
(N02)
Annual Geometric Mean: Primary Secondary
24-Hour:**
Primary
Secondary
Calendar Quarter:
Primary
1-Hour:**
Primary
8-Hour:**
Primary
1-Hour:***
Primary 8 Secondary
Annual Arithmetic Mean:
Primary 8 Secondary
75 ug/ m3
60 ug/ m^
260 ug/ m^
150 ug/ m^
1.5 ug/ m3
35 ppm (40 mg/m3)
9 ppm (10 mg/m3)
0.*12 ppm (245 ug/m3) 0.053 ppm (100 ug/m3)
Sulfur Dioxide (S02)
Annual Arithmetic Mean: Primary
24-Hour:**
Primary
3-Hour:**
Primary
0.03 ppm (80 ug/irr) 0.14 ppm (365 mg/m3) 0.5 ppm (1300 mg/m3)
*
* * ***
ppm
ug/m-5
mg/m3
Federal guideline only.
Not to be exceeded more than once per year. Statistically estimated number of days with exceedances is not to be more than 1.0 per year, averaged over a three year period.
Parts of pollutant per million parts of air.
Micrograms of pollutant per cubic meter of air at 760 mm Hg and 25°C.
Milligrams per cubic meter.
Source: Colorado Department of Health, Air Pollution Control
Division. Colorado Air Quality Data Report, p.9.
26


TABLE 3-4
POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS BY SMSA
Carbon Monoxide
Standard Metropolitan Carbon Monoxide Concentration (PPM)
Statistical Area Highest 2nd MAX 8-HR N/0 Averag
Population: 2 million 1980 1981 1982
New York, NY-NJ 15 ~TT~ 13
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 25 21 19*
Chicago, IL 14 10 14
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 9 10 12
Detroit, MI 8 12 10
San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7* 7 9
Washington, DC-MD-VA 13* 13 12
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 5 7 7
Houston, TX 8 7 10
Boston, MA 11* 10 21
Nassau-Suffoik, NY 10 11 10
St. Louis, MO-IL 14 11 9*
Pittsburgh, PA 11 11 11
Baltimore, MD 11* 13 12
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 12 13* 14
Atlanta, GA 16 10 8
Population: 1-2 million Newark, NJ 15 13 13
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, CA 18 12 11*
Cleveland, OH 11 10 9
San Diego, CA 9 9 9
Miami, FL 15* 15 11
Denver-Boulder, CO 21 28 15
Seattle-Everett, WK 12 14 12
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 10 8 7
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario , CA 8 9 7
Phoenix, AZ 19* 19 18
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 6 10 8 -
Milwaukee, WI 8 9 9
Kansas City, MO-KS 9 15 12
San Jose, CA 16 11 11
Buffalo, NY 5 6 5
Portland, OR-WA 13 12 10
New Orleans, LA ND 7 10
Indianapolis, IN 11 15 11
Columbus, OH 12 10 9
San Juan, PR ND 13* 18
San Antonio, TX 8 8* 8
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL 10 10 9
Sacramento, CA 13* 12 10
N/0 = Nonoverlapping
* = Less than 4330 hourly values of data
ND = No Data
'Jote:


TABLE 3-4 (cont.)
POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS BY SMSA
Ozone
Standard Metropolitan Ozone Concentration (PPM)
Statistical Area Highest 1-HR 2nd High Daily Max
Population: >2. million 1980 1981 1982
New York, NY-NJ . 18 . 18 . 17
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA .44* .35 .32
Chicago, IL .15 .14 .12
Philadelphia, PA-NJ .24* . 17 . 18
Detroit, MI .15* .15 . 16
San Francisco-Oakland, CA . 18 . 14 . 14
Washington, DC-MD-VA .19 .15 .15
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX . 18 . 15 . 17
Houston, TX .30 .23 .21
Boston, MA . 15 . 13 . 16*
Nassau-Suffoik, NY .18 .14 . 13
St. Louis, MO-IL . 18 . 15 . 16
Pittsburgh, PA .17* . 16 .14
Baltimore, MD . 18* . 17 .14
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI .14 .10 . 10
Atlanta, GA . 15 . 14 . 14
Population: 1-2 million Newark, NJ . 16 .14 . 17
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove , CA .29 .31 .18*
Cleveland, OH .12 .12 . 13
San Diego, CA .22 .24 . 21
Miami, FL .15 .14 . 14
Denver-Boulder, CO .13 .13 .14
Seattle-Everett, WA .09 . 12 .09
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL . 13 . 12 .12
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA .38 .34 .32
Phoenix, AZ . 15 . 16 .12
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN . 16 .13 .13
Milwaukee, WI . 14 . 17 .13
Kansas City, MO-KS .16 .12 . 10
San Jose, CA . 19* . 14 .14
Buffalo, NY . 14 .12* .11
Portland, OR-WA . 10 . 15 .12
New Orleans, LA .12* . 12 .17
Indianapolis, IN . 14 . 13 .12
Columbus, OH . 13 . 11 . 13
San Juan, PR ND .07 .07
San Antonio, TX .12 .12 .14
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL .12* . 11 . 09
Sacramento, CA . 17 .17 . 16
Note: * = Less than 50% of days in Ozone season
ND = No Data PPM = Parts per million
23


TABLE 3-4 (cont.) POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS BY SMSA
Suspended Particulates
Standard Metropolitan Suspended Particulate Concentration (UG/M3)
Statistical Area Highest Annual Geometric Me
Population: > 2 million 1980 1981 1982
New York, NY-NJ 6 8 68 59
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 123 121 84
Chicago, IL 118 111 86
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 75 82 68
Detroit, MI 138 116 112
San Francisco-Oakland, CA 66 56 53
Washington, DC-MD-VA 67 65 53
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 77 77 78
Houston, TX 159 151 133
Boston, MA 74 62 71
Nassau-Suffoik, NY 59 56 54
St. Louis, MO-IL 167 190 134
Pittsburgh, PA 115 100 65
Baltimore, MD 90 90 72
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 114 100 73
Atlanta, GA 65 79 63
Population: 1-2 million
Newark, NJ 84 95 72
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, CA 100 104 86
Cleveland, OH 148 129 101
San Diego, CA 95 95 76
Miami, FL 84 97 48
Denver-Boulder, CO 199 183 169
Seattle-Everett, WA 84 87 “TT
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 89 82 57
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 197 157 102
Phoenix, AZ 177 178 140
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 110 84 78
Milwaukee, WI 102 73 62
Kansas City, MO-KS 113 96 71
San Jose, CA 76 64 53
Buffalo, NY 109 97 82
Portland, OR-WA 159 114 88
New Orleans, LA 72 82 63
Indianapolis, IN 82 80 67
Columbus, OH 78 74 68
San Juan, PR 96 94 81
San Antonio, TX 90 73 100
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL 66 69 48
Sacramento, CA 74 68 55
^ote: The annual geometric mean is calculated if the data collected satisfies the NADB validity criteria or at least 30 days of 24-hr data (50% of the EPA recommended sampling days) have been collected. JG/M3 = Mi crograms of pollutants per cubic meter of air.
29


Table 3-4 provides some astounding comparisons; it shows that in 1980 Denver's CO level was greater than all SMSA's in the 1-2 million population range and second only to the Los Angeles-Long Beach, California SMSA. Denver's concentration was higher than those areas commonly noted for severe pollution: New York, New York; Newark, New Jersey; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Table 3-4 also lists ozone levels by SMSA, the second pollutant of concern. Although by far not the worst concentration, Denver's level exceeds the EPA-established NAAQS. The most disturbing comparison is that of suspended particulate concentrations where EPA standards are again exceeded. In 1980, Denver had a higher level than all SMSA's except for the Gary-Hammond-East Chicago, Indiana SMSA. Denver's concentration was higher than Los Angeles, New York, Detroit and Pittsburgh. In 1982, Denver's particulate concentration was exceeded by no other SMSA in the nation.
/
This consistently high level of particulates is due, in part, to the area's high altitude; particles are likely to remain suspended in the air for a longer period, thus increasing the likelihood of being breathed and trapped in the lungs. Looking at 1985 levels, Table 3-5 shows that Denver continued to exceed air quality standards for CO, 0^ and TSP. It is no surprise that Denver is nationally now considered a young, polluted city with a "big city" problem. When compared to the big cities, this degraded reputation is richly deserved.
30


nvcmgmg Counties with Highest Concentration
Pollutant Monitored Times Standard Violations Location Value
Carbon Arapahoe 1 hour 35 pprn Denver, lloulder CAMP* 44 ppm
Monoxide Boulder 8 hours 9 ppm CAMP 21 ppm
Denver Jefferson Denver, Jefferson
Ozone Adams 1 hour .1 20 ppm Boulder Arvada** .140 ppm
Arapahoe . Denver
Boulder Jefferson i Jefferson
Nitrogen Adams Annual .053 ppm none CAMP .04 7 ppm
Dioxide Arapahoe Denver

Sulfur Adams 3 hr 0.500 ppm none CAMP .090 ppm
Dioxide Denver 24 hr 0.140 pprn none CAMP .040 ppm
Annual 0.030 ppm none CAMP .011 ppm
Total Adams 24 hr primary 260 ug/m* Adams, Denver, Golden*** 535 ug/m*
Suspended Arapahoe Jefferson
Particulate Boulder Denver Annual 75 ug/mJ All CAMP 142 ug/m*
Douglas Jefferson •
Lead Adams Denver Quarterly 1.5 ug/m* none CAMP 0.9 ug/m*
For 1,3.0. and 24 hour averaging limes, (lie second highest concent ration is used because the current wording of (he standards allows the highest value at each site to be ignored due to unusual meteorological conditions.
• 21st and Broadway. Denver •• S 7 th and Carrison. Arvada ••*911 10th Street, Colden
Source: Colorado Department of Health, Air Pollution Control Division Public - 1985, p. 13.
Colorado Air Quality Report to the


3.3 FACTORS OF AIR POLLUTION
Before recommending attempts to reverse this condition of extremely poor air quality, it's important to understand how Denver came to be in this situation. There are several causes for the severity of the air pollution, the primary ones being physical setting, climate, growth and transportation.
Physical Setting
The Denver area encompasses two major climatic and topographic zones of the western United States, namely the mountains and the plains. The South Platte River Valley lies at the edge of the plains and at the base of the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Figure 3-2 is a map of the six-county Denver area shown in relationship to the State of Colorado.
Mountains - The western portions of Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson Counties lie in the mountainous portion of the Denver Region, and the continental divide, with an average elevation of 12,000 feet, forms the western boundary of Boulder County. At the eastern edge of the mountainous area, a series of foothills commonly known as the "hogbacks" begin at around 6,000 feet, and serve as the dividing feature between the mountains and valley areas. The mountainous portion of the region in Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson Counties covers approximately 1,300 square miles of the six-county Denver Region.
32


SIX-COUNTY DENVER REGION
SEDGWICK
\
JACKSON . \ .
LOGAN
MOFFAT '
WELD
ROUTT
MORGAN
i
GRAND
RIO BLANCO
lVl
[GILPIN]
ADAMS
•AW'
CLEAR
CREEK
ARAPAHOE
EAGLE
GARFIELD

KIT CARSON
ELBERT
DOUGLAS
|:H ' '
• LAKE

MESA
LINCOLN
TELLER
CHEYENNE
EL PASO
GUNNISON
CHAFFEE
MONTROSE
m. m?m
m FREMONT
KIOWA
CROWLEY
________
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SAGUACHE ' * â–  < . -
V t,. , • v
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OURAY
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OTERO
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1 RIO.GRANDE.lv
wm,
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'fe â–  â–  â– 
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lAWWX
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Plains - The plains area of the region covers about 1,600 square miles in the eastern 50 miles of Adams and Arapahoe Counties. The area is generally characterized by low, rounded hills and wide floodplains on intermittent streams which drain north of the South Platte River in Weld County. The broad, rolling plain varies little in elevation from about 6,000 feet on the west to 4,600 feet in northeast Adams County.
Valley - The valley portion of the Denver Region lies between the mountains and plains and comprises approximately 1,800 square miles of the six-county Denver Region. Most of the population of the region lives in the 400 square mile urbanized portion of the valley covering Denver and parts of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson Counties.
In 1980, over 95% of the 1.7 million people living in the Denver area were located in this urbanized area which covered less than 10% of the land area of the region.^
Climate
The Denver region enjoys a relatively mild and semi-arid, temperate continental climate. In winter, the eastward flow of Pacific air masses from the west is disrupted by the Front Range, causing heavy snowfall in the mountains while Denver typically enjoys sunny skies and dry air.
Inversion - While this proximity to the mountains helps to produce
34


a pleasant climate, it also exerts a strong influence on the City's air pollution. After sunset, very cold heavy air will flow down off the mountains cooling the metropolitan area and carrying the pollutants produced that day north along the South Platte River. In the city the ground cools and sends stored warmth upwards. Winds from the mountains warm as they lose elevation and then level out above the plains, forming a lid over the polluted cooler air below.
As the morning sun warms the ground, the air in the city begins to warm and rise, mixing with carbon monoxide from automobiles of the morning rush period. The sun's rays hit the foothills at a more direct angle, warming the air. If the foothills air warms enough, it breaks through the lid, drawing away some of the pollution on the rising air currents. However, on cold days, the lid remains in place. Cold air and continually building pollution are trapped beneath the warm lid. This condition is referred to as an inversion.
Air pollution potential depends upon the direction and speed of winds near the surface, the vertical distribution of air temperatures with increasing height above the surface and the location and form of constraining topographic features. These factors control dispersion of pollution within the air.
During periods of inversion, there is little or no mixing of air which would allow dispersion. The sources of pollution then contribute significantly to the degradation of air quality.
35


Growth of the Denver Metropolitan Area
Denver, the capital o£ Colorado, is historically an American boom town. The discovery of gold in 1858 along the South Platte River and its tributaries led to the area's first settlements. By 1860, Denver City was formed with a population of over 1,000 people. Gold deposits were quickly exhausted but the mountains to the west were found to be rich in gold, silver, zinc, lead and copper. Denver rapidly grew to a population of 5,000 in 1870 and then to over 35,000 just ten years later. Agriculture on the plains fared especially well with sugar beets, cattle and sheep raising. Due to its pleasant climate and good railroad access, Denver became a tourist center in the early 1900's.
During World War II, the growth of the region increased as industries expanded and federal installations were opened. By 1940, the Denver region had a population of over 445,000. The development pattern of the region was contiguous sprawl with the exception of small areas of development around Wheat Ridge and the older portions of Lakewood. Separate developments in Arvada, Littleton, Aurora and Golden as well as Boulder and Longmont had long been established as distinct agricultural, mining, railroad or educational communities.
Following World War II, the Denver area began to experience the increased impact of the automobile on its urbanized pattern of development as a proliferation of suburban development occurred. By 1950, the region had a population of 612,000 and the pattern of urbanization began to reflect a dispersed suburban character. The
36


construction of Interstate 25, Interstate 70 and several arterials during the late 1950's and through the 1960's significantly-influenced the region's commercial and residential development in an outward direction.
Currently, well over one-half of the state's population lives in the
Denver area. While the core city of Denver has grown very little
since 1960, the suburban areas have experienced phenomenal growth.
The Denver area has been the transportation, cultural and political
center for the state since the early gold rush days, and today
Denver is not only the state economic center, but it is an economic
center for all the surrounding mountain states as well. The
historical development of the region is illustrated in Figure 3-3.
Population in the six-county area has grown at an average annual
12
rate of 2.6 percent per year since 1970. The City of Denver now has a population of about 500,000 and the metropolitan area has a total population of 1.8 million sprawling westward into the foothills of the Front Range and eastward onto the Great
Plains.
The majority of recent growth in the region has been from new
residents moving into the area. Over 50% of the change in
population from 1960 to 1970 was attributable to net migration, and
from 1970 to 1980, nearly 75% of the population growth of the region
14
was again due to net migration.
37


Figure 3-3
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT
] 1940 DEVELOPED AREAS 1940-1960 DEVELOPED AREAS ] I960- 1975 DEVELOPED AREAS
RFVISFn NnVFMRPR 1 QftO


The number of households and employment have increased since 1970 at rates even faster than population; 3.9 percent per year and 4.6 percent per year, respectively.1'5 With the number of households increasing at a rate higher than that of population, the number of persons per household decreased. Figure 3-4 represents the six-county area's growth since 1970.
Surface Transportation
The Denver region is a transportation oriented metropolitan area. Its major growth generally coincided with the increasing use of the automobile and its present pattern of urban development resulted largely from the effects of the automobile. Consequently, the region has one of the highest ratios of cars to people in the nation.
Vehicles Per Household - The number of vehicles per household reflects a propensity to drive rather than use other travel modes. As shown in Table 3-6 and Figure 3-5, the vehicle registrations per household in the six counties have, on the average, increased between 1970 and 1984.
Vehicle Occupancy - This continually growing rate of vehicles per household, in combination with the declining rate of persons per household indicates a rise in disposable income and a great propensity for increase in low occupancy auto travel. 1(5
39


Millions
(Six —County Area),


TABLE 3-6
MEAN VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS PER HOUSEHOLD
County 1970 1980 1984
Adams 2.83 2.80 2.71
Arapahoe 2.48 2.37 2.42
Boulder 2.34 2.43 2.56
Denver 1.78 1.61 1.96
Douglas 3.45 4.00 3.48
Jefferson 2.73 2.55 2.83
Six-County Average 2.23 2.27 2.44
Source: DRCOG from State Motor Vehicle Registration
41


IV
FIGURE 3-5
Total
Vehicles (Six — County
Registered Area)
42


In fact, average vehicle occupancy continued to decline in the
Denver metro area during both the peak and off- peak periods as
represented in Table 3-7.
TABLE 3- 7
AVERAGE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY
Denver Area 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Peak 1.24 1.23 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.17
Off Peak 1.51 1.40 1.3 2 1.30 1.27 1.25
Weighted Average 1.32 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.19
Source: Colorado Department of Highways


Vehicle Miles of Travel - Overall, the best measure of auto utilization is region-wide vehicle miles of travel (VMT). From 1971 to 1981, VMT in the Denver urban area increased 9 million miles per day, or 64 percent. Throughout most of the 1970's, the growth was fairly steady at 900,000 to 1,000,000 miles per day each year. However, fuel price increases did produce VMT reduction in 1980 of 300,000 miles. In 1981, with steadying fuel prices, VMT increased by 2 million miles, returning essentially to the level anticipated under historical increases. That auto travel is increasing faster than growth in population and employment is evidenced when considering VMT per capita. This has risen 31 percent since 1971 to 16.5 miles per day. Thus, smaller household sizes, increasing auto availability, and less ridesharing have, in combination, led to a rise in per person vehicle tripmaking.
Vehicle Trips and Emissions - There is naturally a direct relationship between this increased number of trips and automobile emissions. The severe air pollution will occur when traffic volume on a roadway approaches the system's capacity. When this situation occurs, traffic speed drops and emissions of certain pollutants increase. Figure 3-6 shows the relationship of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides to speed. High carbon monoxide
concentrations are emitted at idle and during deceleration, low concentrations during acceleration and cruising. More hydrocarbons are emitted during idle and deceleration than under cruising or acceleration. Cruising at low speeds tends to produce more emissions of this type than at high speeds. The concentration of
44


UNIFORM SPEED - MPH
FUEL CONSUMPTION-Gallons/1,000 vehicle-wiles and CARBON MONOXIDE (CO)-pounds/1,000 vehicle-miles
fsj
cn
oo
n
CD*
cn
CD
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c
cn
C
D
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3
CO
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cn
HYDROCARBONS (HC) AND NITROGEN OXIDES (NOX)
O

z O CD *n
—t O u/ —t cr c CD
CD 0
CD D O
D £ O D n
O X CL O D O cn C 3 co‘ c -I
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cn CL CD rt o' CO
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nitrogen oxides depends primarily on the temperature of combustion. Thus, high concentrations of nitrogen oxide are found during acceleration and while cruising at high speeds. Lower concentrations are noted during deceleration and even lower during idle. The relationship involving particulates is not established due to the complexity of engine design, fuel/air ratio, and mode of operation. However, it is significant to acknowledge that diesel engines emit a heavy amount of TSP.
Levels of Service - It is important to look next at the operating characteristics of Denver's transportation network; in other words, assessing how well traffic moves. The term "level of service" is a general term that describes the operating conditions that a driver will experience while traveling a particular street or highway. In addition to the physical characteristics of the highway, the traffic volume or presence of other vehicles affects level of service. Measurable items of level of service include frequency of stops, operating speed, travel time, traffic density and vehicle operating costs. The most commonly used measures are operating speed for uninterrupted flow, such as on a freeway and amount of delay for interrupted flow, such as on a city street.
There are six Levels of Service (LOS) established to represent varying conditions, ranging from LOS A to LOS F. Figure 3-7 is a pictoral description of all six levels. LOS A is identified by little or no restriction in maneuverability due to few other vehicles on the road. Drivers can maintain desired speed with
46


LEVELS OF SERVICE FOR FREEWAY AND EXPRESSWAYS UNDER UNINTERRUPTED CONDITIONS
Level of Service A - Free flow, no restrictions on Level of Service D - Approachinq unstable flow:
maneuvering or operating speed; operating speed > 60 mph. operating speed » 40 mph.
Level of Service B - Stable flow, few restrictions; operating speed 1 55 mph.
Level of Service E - Unstable flow, some stoppages; operating speed 30-35 mph.
Level of Service C - Stable flow, more restrictions; operating speed ^ 50 mph.
Level of Service F - Forced flow, many stoppages; operating speed 30 moh.


little or no delay and flow is stable. The other extreme is LOS F, represented by forced-flow operation at low speeds, where volumes are below capacity. Stoppages may occur for short or long periods of time because of downstream congestion.
The correlation can then be made between air pollution potential and level of service, that is, the lower the level of service and, hence, lower speeds, the higher the emissions of CO and HC and the lower the NO . Figures 3-8 through 3-10 compare the level of service on the region's highway network from 1971 to 1985. During this 14-year period, the network degraded from operating at a highly acceptable level to a point where an overwhelming majority of the urban network operates at LOS E and F. The factors previously mentioned - more vehicle registrations per household, increasing rates of population and households, decreasing auto occupancy and increased trips per household - in combination with little increase in the system's capacity, serve to explain this network degradation. In addition, it helps to understand the current air pollution problem.
3.4 CURRENT MITIGATIVE EFFORTS
That the Denver region has an air pollution problem should come as 10 surprise to most residents of the area. Numerous task forces, igencies and departments have been established over the decades at ill levels of government to tackle this problem. The Air Pollution Control Division (A.P.C.D.) of the State Department of Health is
48


rigure a-a


Figure 3-9


■ ivjui ks o— i vj
Longmont
SH 119
SH 119
Jer H 157
I-70
.-.w
1985 PM Peak Hour
Levels of Service
LOS A.B.C LOS D LOS E,F
I-76
urce: DRCOG from CDOH
slot to Scale
Arapahoe
US 85
I-25


designated with the responsibility of controlling air pollution. Through a state statute, A.P.C.D. monitors a comprehensive air
pollution control program. That statute has a provision which allows local municipalities to establish their own pollution standards which must be at least as rigid as the State's but may be more so. The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) had the more localized task of controlling air pollution along the Front Range. The responsibility has recently shifted to a newly-created Denver Metropolitan Air Quality Council. This new body is expected to be oriented to policy-making and not enforcement. Therefore, the A.P.C.D. is still considered the lead enforcement agency.
The A.P.C.D. implements many different strategies for air quality control. The remainder of this chapter briefly describes those strategies.
3etter Air Campaigns
The Better Air Campaign is a voluntary program directed at reducing :arbon monoxide caused by gasoline powered vehicles. Area drivers tfere urged to leave their cars at home one weekday a week under a system of voluntary "no-drive" days. Days were assigned based on a Iriver's license number. On high pollution days, when carbon lonoxide reductions were most needed, the Better Air Campaign ippealed to all metro area motorists to cancel or postpone their lonessential auto trips.
52


The development of the campaign began in 1983 based on the idea that
a broadly supported, voluntary community program could be an
effective and economical way to help achieve air quality standards
17
for carbon monoxide. The program was initiated between November 15, 1984 and January 15 , 1985 , and aimed at motorists in the City
and County of Denver and the surrounding urbanized areas of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson counties.
The goal of the campaign's first year was a reduction of vehicle
miles traveled on high pollution days by five percent. Results of
the 1984-85 campaign indicated the five percent reduction was
achieved in the metro area and an even greater reduction of 5-8% was
achieved in downtown Denver. On a more discouraging note, 96
percent of motorists knew about the program and 85 percent approved
18
of its implementation. This indicates widespread knowledge and approval yet minimal participation.
The Better Air Campaign started its second and more aggressive season on November 15, 1985 and ran through January 15, 1986. While different reports conclude varying levels of participation, the Department of Health states the 1985-86 campaign resulted in a ten percent driving reduction.
In order to achieve standards for carbon monoxide by 1987, a
reduction of fifteen percent in vehicle miles traveled must be met.
If this standard is not realized by then, the EPA could sanction the
19
Denver area by withholding $60 million in federal aid.
53


In order to achieve next year's goal of fifteen percent reduction in
traffic, the Better Air Campaign will likely be expanded to include
2 0
voluntary restrictions on the use of fireplaces and wood stoves.
Automobile Inspection and Readjustment (AIR) Program
Pollutant emissions can be attributed, in part, to vehicles with
improper air/fuel ratios which result from incomplete fuel
combustion. The AIR Program requires a yearly inspection of all
vehicles in the Front Range except pre-1968 vehicles, diesels and
motorcycles. Since the implementation of the AIR Program in 1981,
Front Range ambient air quality has improved approximately ten
21
percent for carbon monoxide.
Controls on Diesel Vehicles
The increased popularity of diesel of the effects these vehicles have carcinogenic substances been identi diesel particulates are contributors *
vehicles has intensified concern on air quality. Not only have
fied in diesel particulates, but
2 2
to Denver's "brown cloud."
In December 1983, the Ai r Pollution Control Division made a number
of recommendations to the State Legislature for control of diesels.
S.B 193 was passed and became effective January 1, 1985. This
leg islation provides f or:
* changes to the existing Colorado statewide opacity standard allowing for increased enforcement and more stringent fines.
* a Diesel Inspection/Maintenance Pilot Study Program
54


* adding diesel testing capability to the A.P.C.D's vehicle testing centers
2 3
* a public information/education program
Due to its recent implementation, impacts of this program on air pollution reduction levels are not yet measurable.
These three control programs have done little to reduce the current air pollution problem. A far greater level of participation in the Better Air Campaign is needed for the carbon monoxide standard to be met. The increased participation from the 1984-85 campaign to the 1985-86 campaign is attributable, in part, to the unseasonably mild winter of 1985-86. It simply was not as much of a hardship to ride transit given the low average snowfall and spring-like morning temperatures. Higher participation in the future is unlikely; it is difficult for an individual motorist to justify the inconvenience of carpooling or riding transit when their contribution to the overall problem is infinitely small.
The AIR Program would be more effective if vehicles were inspected prior to yearly vehicle registration as is now being considered by the Colorado legislature. Currently, vehicles are to be voluntarily brought to a certified station for inspection and, if passed, are given a sticker valid until the next year, same month. Many vehicles have stickers beyond the renewal date and are ticketed only if discovered by an enforcement officer. These programs seem weak and essentially ineffective.
55


3.5 SUMMARY
The purpose of this chapter was four-fold:
* look more closely at the pollutants that affect the Denver area,
* compare the air quality of Denver to the rest of the nation,
* consider the causes of air pollution in Denver, and
* review the measures currently in place to reduce pollution.
It was shown that three pollutants are exceeding EPA air quality standards: carbon monoxide, ozone, and particulates. The effects
of each pollutant are detrimental to the health and welfare of the residents of the Denver metropolitan area.
Denver's air quality rates extremely poor when compared to all other SMSA's in the nation. In particular, Denver's level of particulates is the very worst in the nation and its carbon monoxide
concentration is second only to the Los Angeles SMSA.
The proximity of the metropolitan area to the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains is responsible for the frequent inversions and little dispersion of pollution. Denver's growth has been relatively quick and at a very low density. It has cemented a dependent relationship on the automobile, the primary contributor of carbon monoxide.
56


The control measures to mitigate injurious levels of pollution have been ineffective as evidenced by continual noncompliance of standards. Stronger measures are needed to seriously combat the insidious air.
The next chapter considers the future development of a specific area in Denver - the Central Platte Valley. The question is raised of what the future air quality will be given this development and the generated automobile traffic.
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CHAPTER FOUR
FUTURE AIR QUALITY IN THE CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY
4.0 INTRODUCTION
The previous chapter established the basis of the current air pollution problem in the Denver metropolitan area. This chapter discusses the future air quality of the Central Platte Valley (CPV), a 600-acre area contiguous to downtown Denver. The study area is illustrated in Figure 4-1.
4.1 CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY - DESCRIPTION
The CPV has long been eyed for redevelopment. As the largest parcel of undeveloped urban land in North America, the CPV is considered a key element of Denver's future development. It is seen as key essentially for two reasons: image and economics.
Image
The CPV is currently zoned primarily industrial and, as such, is beset with rail lines and warehouses. Figure 4-2 identifies specific zones within the Valley and Table 4-1 describes their permitted use. This expanse of unsightly land serves as the gateway to Denver for the heavy volume of motorists traveling along 1-25, the northwest boundary of the site, and Speer Boulevard, which bisects the Valley. The concern is that this introduction to the City produces a jaundiced image. Developing the unique open space
58


THE STUDY AREA
Figure 4-1
> i________i'________11________11__________11_________i
n i n 1 n in
i i j 1 1
i i . i â–  i i i
; d 1 | * i i 1 i i
1 i 5 « j i ! 1-1 i i u
u j L U 1 r J i u in k l | V/A
'—"—"—11—*-!_ *nr\ /> s s/r
i
Colfax Ave.
nr


MAJOR ZONES
Figure 4-2
1 1 1: 11 ||- ^aoDflc 1 Li
1 1! !l !! 1 up B it M
1 1 ! i I; m III p pts iii i
I 1 1 r; 1 m sm. T}Xv!v!\{v!vX fete m ft] l| 111a w /
t*— I 1 \ mm mm mn J 1 lx jyy M
MilwmMmmm
Industrial Fx*:*# Residential Commercial


TABLE 4-1
DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING LAND USES IN CPV
1-1 GENERAL INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT. Allows many manufacturing,
warehousing and wholesaling activities, along with limited retail and service uses for the benefit of the area employees. Building floor area cannot exceed 2 times the site area. Generally no setback requirements.
1-2 HEAVY INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT. Allows all manufacturing,
warehousing, wholesaling and mineral extraction activities. Limited retail and service uses for the benefit of area
employees are permitted. No limitations on the size or location of buildings. This district should not be located adjacent to residential or business zones.
B-7 BUSINESS RESTORATION ZONE. Intended to preserve and improve older structures which are architecturally and/or historically significant. This district allows light industrial, general retail, wholesale, services, offices and high density
residential uses. Additional floor area is allowed with the development of residential units, underground parking or open space areas. Building floor areas cannot exceed 2 times the site area. However, with premiums the floor area can be increased to 4 times the site area. Building height not controlled by bulk standards.
0-1 OPEN USE DISTRICT. Allows airports, recreational uses, parks, cemeteries, reservoirs, and other open uses including a limited number of public and semi-public activities housed in buildings. Setback requirements apply to the location of
buildings.
61


of the CPV into a thriving, dynamic center will enhance the overall image of Denver.
Economics
There are many markets in the core area of Denver that have yet to be successfully tapped: employment, cultural, recreational, retail and housing. Due to the City's inability to annex additional land, which results in loss of economic base to surrounding areas, the CPV offers the opportunity for Denver to capitalize on its most prominent example of underutilized land. The CPV presently contributes only $56,000 annually in property and sales taxes. With future development and the use of tax increment financing, the area is projected to generate $15-20 million per year.* This would be the second largest single economic generator for the City, the first being Stapleton Airport.
4.2 CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY CONCEPT PLAN
In the past twenty years there have been several major redevelopment plans for the CPV. None succeeded due to lack of consensus on questions such as amount of open space, the scale and character of new structures, impacts to neighborhoods and how to finance the high infrastructure costs.
Early in 1984, the Platte Valley Development Committee (PVDC), representing key public and private interests, was formed by Mayor Federico Pena. Its task was to achieve a unified balance of private
62


development, public policies and neighborhood desires. Appendix A provides a list of all representatives involved on the committee. After an eighteen month process, the PVDC presented the culmination of its efforts, the Central Platte Valley Concept Plan. The plan is considered a policy statement, not a planning document. All assumptions in this thesis regarding development were derived from the CPV Concept Plan.
The CPV Concept Plan provides initial policy direction on land use, open space, the railroad corridor, transportation, flood control and historic preservation. To provide an augmented understanding of the committee's vision for the CPV, the recommendations of each are summarized below; land use is also described in greater detail later in this chapter.
Land Use
The CPV is to develop as mixed use with eleven distinct sub-areas, each having its own design character. Support retail as opposed to regional center development is emphasized. A height limitation cap of 250 feet is placed on all buildings. Residential use is slated to be apartments and townhomes.
Open Space
The addition of nearly 115 acres of open space and parks to an existing 37 acres is recommended with a focus on the waterways of Cherry Creek and the South Platte River. Park sizes are to range in scale from neighborhood to city. Specifics include a network of
63


bike paths and walking trails, ballfields and space to enhance restaurant, entertainment and cultural activities. The Concept Plan does not specify if the additional open space is acquired through developer dedication or outright City purchase of land.
Rail Corridor
Development of the CPV is most dependent on the replacement of existing rail lines, which are scattered throughout the Valley, with a consolidated mainline corridor. The corridor would be buffered on either side with extensive berming and landscaping to reduce noise, vibration and potential hazard.
Transportation
Emphasis is placed on upgrading interchanges off 1-25 to improve
access and vehicular circulation to the Valley and the downtown
area. Provision is made for mass transit and pedestrian routes to
link the eleven sub-areas; parking requirements are flexible to
reflect market demand. The Concept Plan recognizes the opportunity
for incorporating various forms of mass transit and pedestrian
links; however, the Concept Plan views the automobile as the
2
"primary transportation mode for most people".
Flood Control
The Concept Plan calls for improvements to the Platte River to reduce potential of flood damage. Land use development is not to alter the present flood control mechanisms for Cherry Creek.
64


Historic Preservation
The CPV is the area of Denver's origins yet only one Denver Landmark remains, the Forney Transportation Museum. There are sixteen
buildings in the Valley which may be eligible for historic designation; unfortunately, they are widely scattered and do not
i
lend themselves to the creation of a historic district.
Nonetheless, preservation or adaptive re-use of historic buildings and structures is encouraged.
4.3 FUTURE LAND USE PERCENTAGES
Eventual rezoning of the CPV would allow a maximum development of twenty-five million square feet. Given market absorption rates, however, the Concept Plan assumes that a range of development between eighteen and twenty million square feet is feasible. This
chapter assumes nineteen million square feet of development in the
/
Valley over a thirty year period. Various periods of build-out are mentioned in the Concept Plan; the thirty-year time frame was chosen. Should the development of twenty-five million square feet occur, the pollutional loads would be worse than those under the assumed nineteen million square feet.
The Concept Plan assigned the following percentages to land uses within the CPV:
65


Mix of Land Uses
Land Use Percentage of Total Development Square Footage
Office and Employment 65% 12,350,000
Residential 16% 3,040,000
Retail 7% 1,330,000
Hotel 6% 1,140,000
Public Activities 6% 1,140,000
Total 100% 19,000,000 -
At the time the Concept Plan was presented, the intended use for public activities was a new convention center to be located behind the Denver Union Terminal building. In November 1985, a public referendum was held to decide whether this was an appropriate location for Denver's new convention center. The outcome of the vote was a solid "No". Since this time, the Plan has not been revised to reflect an alternate use of the public activities square footage. This chapter assumes the most plausible use to be office and employment; therefore, the percentage of square footage for office and employment is adjusted as follows:
Adjustment of Land Use Mix
Percentage of Square
Land Use Total Development Footage
Office and Employment 71% 13,490,000
Residential 16% 3,040,000
Retail 7% 1,330,000
Hotel 6% 1,140,000
Total 100% 19,000,000
66


It is helpful to look at the total development in phases. Lacking any substantive economic data regarding amount of growth and when it may occur, a straight line projection of development was applied and phases in increments of 10 years established.
Land Use
Office and Employment
Residential
Retail
Hotel
Total (Sq. ft.)
Land Use by Phase 10 years 4,451,700 1,003,200 438,900 376,200
6,270,000
20 years 9,038,300 2,036,800 891,100 763,800 12,730,000
30 years 13,490,000
3.040.000
1.330.000
1.140.000 19,000,000
The Concept Plan discusses the Valley being developed with eleven subdistricts. However, there is no guideline as to the percentages of various land uses within each subdistrict. Therefore, for the purpose of projecting air pollutants, the square footage of development is assumed to be evenly distributed.
4.4 AIR POLLUTION COMPUTER MODELS
To project air pollution resulting from development of the CPV, two computer models were used, both developed by the State of California, Air Resources Board: URBEMIS#1 and CALINE3. These
models were chosen for the output provided, their availability in the public realm and the ability to be performed on a personel computer.
67


URBEMIS#1 models levels of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides generated from different phases of development. The results are used to compare the pollutional loading of each development phase against the existing condition. CALINE3 predicts carbon monoxide generated from vehicle trips on a transportation network. The results are CO in parts per million which are then compared to the EPA standard for CO.
URBEMIS#!
This model determines the emitted tons per year of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides based on land use and vehicle trips generated within the site. A drawback of the model is that the results cannot be converted into units in which the NAAQS are established as well as previous tables showing health effects of pollutants and national comparisons of carbon monoxide, ozone and particulates. URBEMIS#1 is useful to compare orders of magnitude between scenarios proposing varying densities of land use or to compare the effects of alternatives which reduce the vehicle trips. In this case, it was used to determine the pollutant loading associated with each phase of development.
Land Use - The first input variable to the URBEMIS#1 model is the amount of land use being proposed. The office and employment and retail uses require units of square feet (s.f.); the residential use requires units of dwelling units (D.U.); and the hotel use requires lumber of rooms. The square footage figures for office and ?mployment, and retail were previously established. The total units
68


for the residential and hotel uses were obtained through discussion with Mac Callison of the Denver Public Works Department, Transportation Division. The following table displays the land use input by phases.
Land Use
Office and Employment Residential Retail Hotel
Model Input Land Use
10 years 20 years
4,451,700 s.f. 1,353 D.U. 438,900 s.f. 693 Rms.
9,038,300 s.f. 2,747 D.U.
891,100 s.f. 1,407 Rms.
50 years
13,490,000 s.f
4.100 D.U 1,330,000 s.f
2.100 Rms
Vehicle Trip Rates - A second factor required as URBEMIS#1 model input is the number of daily vehicle trips generated by each land use. The initial source for this information was the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual. Given verification from Mac Callison, the rates were then adjusted downward to reflect the urban setting of the CPV. Typically, fewer trips are made in a vehicle when land use density is high as more trips are pedestrian or transit-oriented. By applying trip rates to all land uses, the total daily vehicle trips are determined.
The result is the total production and attraction of all trips by each land use, thereby avoiding double counting of trips. For
example, a morning trip produced at home will be attracted to the workplace, a shopping center or another location such as a dentist office. An afternoon trip will be produced at the workplace and


attracted to home or another location such as a restaurant. The total trips in this example are two trips. The morning trip was "home based" and the afternoon trip was "nonhome based". URBEMIS#1 determines trips for each of these categories. The home-based trips are determined by the amount of residential square footage and the nonhome-based trips are dependent on all other land uses. URBEMIS#1 further defines these categories into types of trips:
Types of Vehicle Trips NONHOME BASED
1. Nonwork - e.g. travel from shopping center to
restaurant
2. Work e.g. travel from work to restaurant
HOME BASED
1. Home, Work e.g. travel from home to work
2. Home, Shop e.g. travel f rom home to shopping center
3. Home, Other e.g. trave1 from home to dentist office
This represents all the kinds of vehicle trips that would take place within the site. The distribution (ie, the origin and destination) of these trips, and, therefore, the length of each trip, will impact the amount of pollutants emitted.
The following table displays the trip generation rates multiplied by the full build-out of development to produce total daily vehicle trips in the CPV.
70


Calculation of Vehicle Trips
Land Use (30 yr.)_________x
Office and
Employment 13,490,000 s.f.
Residential 4,100 D.U.
Retail 1,330,000 s.f.
Hotel 2,100 Rms.
Total Daily
Trip Rate_____= Vehicle Trips
12/1,000 s.f. 6/D.U.
26.5/1,000 s.f. 9.2/Rms.
161,880 24,600 35,245 19,320
241,045 Total
A total of 241,045 daily vehicle trips are projected to occur within the study area, given the aforementioned assumptions. This is more than twice the daily volume of traffic currently on all lanes of 1-70 just east and west of 1-25 and nearly four times as much daily volume as travels U.S. 36 at 1-25.
The development of the CPV will produce trips not only internally but will attract trips from the metropolitan region. Another breakdown of types of trips is to categorize them as
internal-internal, internal-external and external-internal.
o Internal-Internal: A trip produced and attracted fully
within the site.
o Internal-External: A trip produced in the site and
attracted to a location outside the site.
o External-Internal: A trip produced outside the site and attracted to a location within the site.
fourth type of trip is the external-external, or through, trip.
71


An example would be a motorist traveling Speer Boulevard through the site and not making a stop within the site. Through trips may be seen as significant with this study area given 1-25 and the major access points to the downtown area which bisect the study area. However, to determine future through trips requires a costly model run of the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) Year 2000 Regional Network and is outside the scope of this thesis. In addition, the through trips would not be related to the proposed development since no trip is either produced nor attracted in the site and would be occurring even if the CPV were not developed. Lastly, the background air quality factor assumes a regional increase in traffic volume and accounts for the pollutants contributed by the external-external trips.
The internal-external and external-internal trips are considered in this thesis internal-internal once the trip is within the site. The concern is not where in the region the trip came from or is going to, only what it does while in the site. Therefore, the total 241,045 trips are considered trips directly generated by the proposed CPV development. To consider through trips would result in an even worst-case pollutant load.
Trip Length - A third input requirement is the length of each trip :ype. A DRCOG Year 2000 Regional Network model run could produce an iverage trip length within the metropolitan region produced or ittracted in the site for each type of home-based and nonhome-based :rip. However, since all trips are considered internal-internal,
72


only the distance traveled within the site is of concern. All trips will have scattered origins and destinations throughout the Valley and, due to the previous assumption of equally distributed land use, this thesis assumes the trips to be evenly distributed as well. The average trip length is then calculated by averaging the length of the site by its width. (See Figure 4-3). This results in an average vehicle trip length of 1.125 miles. By multiplying total daily trips by trip length, the vehicle miles of travel (VMT) is determined. URBEMIS#! calculates pollutional load from VMT.
Other Input Factors - Another variable in the model is the ave travel speed of the vehicles. Chapter Three established
relationship between travel speed and pollutant emissions G
the probable downtown -like setting with traffic signals and nume
turning movements in addition to an average trip length of 1
miles, an average travel speed of 20 mph was assumed.
rage the iven rous . 125
A final input factor is the cold represent a worst-case scenario temperature of 35° was used, allowed was 0°; however, this Denver area.
start temperature of a vehicle. To of the winter season, a cold start The next lower input variable seemed unreasonably low for the
Model Results
Four different scenarios were modeled using URBEMIS#1: Existing, 10 years, 20 years and 30 years of development. The input values for the future phases of development were discussed; the existing
73


/erage Trip Length
1.8 + .45
2----
1.125 Miles
Figure 4-3


scenario used warehouse and manufacturing land uses as input in which acreage was determined from aerial photography measurement.
URBEMIS#! Model Results
Existing Land Use CPV 10 Years Development 20 Years 30 Years
Total Daily Vehicle Trips 3,766 79,541 161,497 241,042
Vehicle Miles of Travel 4,236 89,483 181,684 271,171
Pollutant
CO (Tons/yr.) 100 1,544 3,136 4,681
HC (Tons/yr.) 15 201 410 612
NO^ (Tons/yr.) 2 36 72 108
Each phase of development produces astonishing amounts of pollutants. Although this cannot be compared directly to the standards, one can consider the present air quality of the area sstablished in the previous chapter along with the fact that the CPV Is the region's topographical sink. Additional development in this 'sink" will make an already bad situation worse. A meteorologist vith the Colorado Department of Health sees the CPV as "the worst irea to develop when considering air pollution."^ Appendix B ;ontains detailed model results.
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CALINE3
Carbon monoxide is the pollutant of most concern in the Denver region. This computer program predicts carbon monoxide concentrations near roadways. The model results can then be compared to EPA standards for air quality compliance. The program is based on the Gaussian diffusion equation and uses a mixing zone concept to characterize pollutant dispersion.
Site Variables - There are several input variables required to best represent the atmospheric and meteorological conditions of the site. The following is a list of the variables and the values used
as input. In all instances, the worst case condition was reflected.
Wind Direction - the lowest wind speed of 1 meter/second was entered.
Atmospheric Stability - the most stable condition (Class F) was assumed.
Mixing Height - due to Denver's frequency of inversions, a low mixing height of 100 meters was entered.
Ambient Concentration - the Colorado Department of Health provided a Year 2000 value of 26 ppm for 1 hour CO concentration. This is an important variable because it provides the background air quality condition.
4ink and Receptor Data Input - Since CALINE3 predicts CO near
•oadways, a representation of the transportation system must be
sntered. The network is represented by a series of links, each link
76


being a straight segment of roadway having a constant width, height, traffic volume and vehicle emission factor. The transportation system used for modeling purposes was derived from the CPV Concept Plan and is illustrated in Figure 4-4. The system was disaggregated into ten links.
Pollution levels are measured at given receptor points. This provides an indication of the air pollution a pedestrian would breathe. The model results are in the form of a matrix showing the ppm of CO at each receptor as dispersed by each link. A receptor will not be impacted by a link that is more than 150 meters away.
Thirteen receptor locations were chosen, each location significant to the development of the CPV. Three locations along the Platte River and one next to Cherry Creek are intended to represent bicyclists, runners and other people using the greenway and open space. Two receptors were placed near 16th Street, an area likely to be pedestrian-oriented with extension of the 16th Street Mall. Another receptor was placed near Auraria campus to monitor another high-pedestrian location. The next three receptors were placed near the six-lane spine road that will carry the majority of the trips. These three receptors were placed at different distances from the spine road to see how far the "contour line" of poor air extended. Two receptors were placed at opposite ends of the site and one near Lower Downtown to provide site extremes. See Figure 4-5 for location of receptors.
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Roadway Link 1 Link Number
Figure 4-4 Tran«nnrtetion Network


1 Receptor
Figure 4-5 Receotor Location


Traffic Volume - The 241,045 total daily vehicle trips previously discussed were rounded to 241,000. This figure was divided by a typical peak hour factor of .12 to determine the total trips that would occur during the most traveled hour of the weekday. These total peak hour trips were then divided by the total number of lanes
on all links to calculate trips/lane. This figure was then
multiplied by the number of lanes on each link to determine
trips/link. This method assumes, as did URBEMIS#1, an equal distribution of trips. The calculations are detailed below.
Traffic Volume Calculations 241,000 Daily Vehicle Trips x .12 (Peak Hour Factor)
. = 28,920 Peak Hour Trips
28,920 / 28 Total Lanes = 1,033 Trips/Lane Roadway Segment x 1,033 Trips/Lane = Trips/Link
Characteristics
1 lane 1,033
1.5 lanes 1,550
2 lanes 2,066
4 lanes 4,132
6 lanes 6,198
Some adjustments were made for the number of lanes assumed for Speer Boulevard, 15th Street, 19th/20th Street and 23rd Street. These are existing roadways and operate close to capacity during peak periods. It is unlikely that any of these roadways could absorb significant loading of additional traffic. With each roadway, the
80


existing number of lanes was increased 25%. The model then assumed that only the trips generated by the CPV development would be carried by the additional lanes. For example, the link representing 15th Street was modeled with one lane and not four. The existing four lanes carry external-external trips, the impacts of which are accounted for in the ambient air quality.
Modeling of Existing Roadways
Roadway Existing Lanes Number of Lanes Modeled
Speer Blvd. 6 1.5
15th St. 4 1
19th/20th St. 6 1.5
23rd St. 4 1
Other Input Factors - The emission factor of vehicles is another variable and one which significantly affects model results. Rick Barrett of the Colorado Department of Health provided two average emission factors, one representing Winter 1986 (existing) and the second representing Winter 2000 (future). The existing average emission factor of 173.46 is substantially higher than the future average emission factor of 79.82. The Department of Health is assuming a purging of older, inefficient vehicles and the production )f cleaner fleets of vehicles by the Year 2000. The future assumed rehicle emission factor was entered.
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The final input variable is the mixing zone width which is simply the traveled portion of the roadway segment. Each lane is determined to be 3.3 meters and a total of 6 meters is added to each segment to account for sidewalks and curb and gutter.
Model Results
Three scenarios were modeled, one for each phase of development. The existing condition was not modeled because the assumed transportation system is not in place, with the exception of Speer Boulevard, 15th Street, 19th/20th Street and 23rd Street. These four roadways, however, carry trips that are not associated with the future development. The following tables present the results of CALINE3 and provides a comparison to air quality standards.
32


10 YR DEVELOPMENT
Receptor
1 0 . 8 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 . 2 1.1
3 0 0 0 0 1.9
4 0 0 0 0 4.7
5 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 3.2
11 0 0 0 0 2.5
12 0 0 .4 1.6 2.3
13 0 0 0 0 0
CO/Link 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL PPM
0 0 0 0 0 26.8
0 0 0 0 . 7 28
. 8 0 0 0 0 28.7
0 0 0 0 0 30.7
0 0 0 . 1 0 26.1
1.6 0 0 0 0 27.6
0 0 0 0 0 26
0 3.8 0 0 0 29.8
.5 0 0 0 0 26.5
0 0 0 0 0 29.2
0 0 0 0 0 28.5
0 0 0 0 0 30.3
1.8 .2 0 0 0 28
CO Emissions by Link 1 2 3 4 5
This table indicates that with thirty-three percent of development (or the first ten years) no receptor experiences air pollution above the EPA standard of 35 ppm. Link 5, the mid-Valley spine road, contributes more pollutants than any other link.
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20 YR DEVELOPMENT
CO Emissions by Link
Receptor 1 2 3 4 5 CO/Link 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL PPM
1 0 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.7
2 0 0 0 .5 2.4 0 0 0 0 1.5 30.4
3 0 0 0 0 4 1.7 0 0 0 0 31.7
4 0 0 0 0 9.7 0 0 0 0 0 35.7
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .3 0 26.3
6 0 0 0 0 0 3.2 0 0 0 0 29.2
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.7 0 0 0 33.7
9 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 27.1
10 0 0 0 0 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 32.5
11 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 31
12 0 0 .8 3.3 4.6 0 0 0 0 0 34.7
13 0 0 0 0 0 3.7 .4 0 0 0 30.1
The twenty year scenario results in receptor 4 exceeding standard. Receptor 4 typifies a pedestrian walking next to the spine road. Again, Link 5, representing the spine road, is the source of the highest levels of pollutant emissions.
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30 YR DEVELOPMENT
CO Emissions by Link
Receptor 1 2 3 4 5 CO/Link 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL PPM
1 0 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.5
2 0 0 0 .7 3.6 0 0 0 0 2.3 32.5
3 0 0 0 0 6 2.6 0 0 0 0 34.6
4 0 0 0 0 14.5 0 0 0 0 0 40.5
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 5 0 26.5
6 0 0 0 0 0 4.8 0 0 0 0 30.8
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.5 0 0 0 37.5
9 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 0 0 0 0 27.7
10 0 0 0 0 9.8 0 0 0 0 0 35.8
11 0 0 0 0 7.6 0 0 0 0 0 33.6
12 0 0 1.3 4.9 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 39.1
13 0 0 0 0 0 5.5 . 6 0 0 0 32.1
With full buildout of development, four receptor locations exceed standard: 4, 8, 10 and 12. By scanning down the matrix and across it becomes evident that the links causing nonattainment are links 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 or fifty percent of the transportation network.
It is important to emphasize that the ambient air quality of 26 ppm is, at best, an optimistic estimate. The existing ambient air quality is 35 ppm, equal to the standard. If the future estimate is off by just 5 ppm, the majority of the receptors in the Valley would exceed standard.
85


The fact that any location exceeds standard is unacceptable. It violates the City's efforts to improve the air and jeopardizes the acquisition of federal highway funding. It also risks the success of the development. The public is more keenly aware of the unpleasant effects associated with air pollution. Responses to this could range from refusal to live or shop in such a polluted area to companies choosing not to locate in the CPV. While a basic premise of this thesis is that development of the CPV is worthwhile, it also asserts that care must be taken now to avoid the situation presented above.
4.5 SUMMARY
This chapter has shown that the traditional transportation approach to land use development must, in the case of the CPV, be avoided or the City faces serious air pollution consequences. The next chapter provides some alternatives to reduce air pollution in the CPV.
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CHAPTER FIVE
ALTERNATE SOLUTIONS TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION
5.0 INTRODUCTION
This chapter discusses three alternate solutions for the air pollution impact which will result from development of the Central Platte Valley. Unlike the base condition established in the previous chapter, each alternative incorporates a transit component.
5.1 ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT
The previous chapter detailed the total peak hour vehicle trips generated from three phases of development and the subsequent impact of each. The peak hour trip demand of 28,920 trips resulting from full buildout will serve as the base condition from which to compare the three alternatives.
Each alternative starts with the control total of 28,920 trips as the demand to be satisfied and then modifies the percent served by road and by transit. In this way it will be determined what mode split is necessary to reduce air pollution to an acceptable level. The alternatives focus on a single goal, the reduction of auto trips. The CALINE#3 model is again used to provide comparisons.
87


Alternative One
75% Auto/25% Transit
This alternative modeled seventy-five percent of the total peak hour trip demand onto the same transportation system with the remaining twenty-five percent served by transit. An example of what such a network could look like is illustrated in Figure 5-1. It is assumed that the transit component is nonpolluting such as a battery-operated or electric source powered unit.
Alternative Two -- 50% Auto/50% Transit
This second alternative represents an even distribution of vehicle
trip demand between modes of travel. One-half of the total peak
hour trip demand was loaded onto the transportation system with the same input values except mixing zone width. The capacity of each
link was reduced by one-half to more efficiently accommodate the reduced auto volume. The links have characteristics more of a
collector or local street. Refer to Figure 5-2 for an example
layout of this alternative.
Alternative Three -- 25% Auto/75% Transit
The last alternative considered only twenty-five percent of the peak hour demand being served by automobiles and the remainder
accommodated on transit. This alternative assumed the same mixing zone width as Alternative Two. As illustrated in Figure 5-3, the
transit system would have to be extensive. In fact, the transit system should be an integral part of a regional network to assure
accessibility. Table 5-1 lists the volume and mixing zone input for the three alternatives.
88


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JUUUULJU
Roadway
Transit
Alternative 1 - Gene
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mm Transit Figure 5-2
Alternative 2 - General Layout


â– â– â– â– â–  Roadway Transit
Figure 5-3 Alternative 3 - General Layout


TABLE 5-1
*
* A
MODEL INPUT FOR ALTERNATIVES 1-3
Peak Hour Vehicle Trips* Mixing Zone Width (m) * *
Link Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3 Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3
1 1550 1033 517 12.6 9.3 9.3
2 775 517 258 9.3 7.65 7.65
3 775 517 258 9.3 7.65 7.65
4 4649 3099 1550 25.8 15.9 15.9
5 4649 3099 1550 25.8 15.9 15.9
6 3099 2066 1033 19.2 12.6 12.6
7 3099 2066 1033 19.2 12.6 12.6
8 1163 775 388 10.95 8.48 8.48
9 775 517 258 9.3 7.65 7.65
10 1163 775 388 10.95 8.48 8.48
0.12 percent of trips resulting from full buildout of development.
Mixing zone width not divisible directly in half due to the six meter constant.
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Full Text

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of the Air Pollution Impacts Resulting from Development of the CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY & PLANNING "' AURARlA -... -.-..-.. ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • t • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • t •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • ......... . ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ................................ .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' ............ • • .................. . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ' . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 4 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •••••••••••••••••••••• I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • -..... -Karen J. HarE 1

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ASSESSMENT OF THE AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS RESULTING FROM DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY by Karen J. Hare / A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Master of Planning and Community Development University of Colorado at Denver Denver, Colorado May 1986 Date Due _J_UL 1 7 1989 t I I ........ 0 --,. ...... .._ ....... --

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This thesis, prepared by Karen J. Hare, is approved and accepted as partial fulfillment of the requirements of Master of Planning and Community Development. ones, Committee Chairman University of Colorado at Denver He ert H. Sm1th, AI P, Comm ttee Mem er Assistant Dean/Professor, College of Design and Planning University of Colorado at Denver Department of Highways

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to extend sincere thanks to her thesis committee for the many months of recommendations and guidance: Dr. Bernie Jones, Chairman Associate Professor, University of Colorado at Denver Herbert H. Smith, AICP Assistant Dean/Professor, College of Design and Planning, University of Colorado at Denver Joseph C. Tempel District VI Environmental Manager, Colorado Department of Highways Gratitude is also expressed to Cathy Young for excellence in the typing of this document, and to the author's co-workers at CRS Sirrine for their valued professional input. Lastly, the most heartfelt appreciation is extended to the author's parents for planting the seeds of achievement and personal fortitude, and for their continued encouragement and love.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures . . . . ... . List of Tables ......... . Chapter One -Introduction 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Thesis . . . Defining the Methodology. Organization . . . . . Problem . Chapter Two -Air Pollution Background i ii 1 1 2 3 2.0 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.1 Air Pollution -Description. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.2 Automobile Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.3 Historical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.4 Federal Legislative Involvement. . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Chapter Three The Air Pollution Problem of Denver 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Pollutants Affecting Denver. . . . ..... . National Comparison of Pollutants by SMSA. . .... . Factors of Air Pollution ............ . Current Mitigative Efforts . . ....... . Summary. . . . . . . . . . . Chapter Four -Future Air Quality in the Central Platte Valley 4.0 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Central Platte Valley -Description. . . . . . . 4.2 Central Platte Valley Concept Plan . . . . . 4.3 Future Land use Percentages. . . . . . . . . 4.4 Air Pollution Computer Models. . . . . . 4.5 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chapter Five -Alternate Solutions to Reduce Air Pollution 5.0 5. 1 5. 2 5.3 Introduction . . .... . Alternative Development .. . Comparison of Alternatives . Summary. . . . . . . . . . . Chapter Six Recommended Alternative 6.0 Introduction .............. . 6.1 Criteria for a Successful Transit System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 19 24 32 48 56 58 58 62 65 67 85 87 87 93 97 98 98

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6.2 Supplementary Techniques to Restrict Auto Use .. 6.3 Thesis Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Page . 106 108 Appendix A Platte Valley Development Committee ........ A-1 Appendix B Model Results ................... B-1 Appendix C -Strategies for Reducing Pollution ......... C-1 Appendix D Chapter Endnotes ................. D-1 Appendix E -Bibliography ...... : . . . . E-1

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure II 3-1 Contributions to Pollution Levels . . . . . . . 25 3-2 Six-County Denver Region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3-3 Historical Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3-4 Six-County Area Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3-5 Total Vehicles Registered . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3-6 Fuel Consumption and Emissions Relationship . . . . 45 3-7 Levels of Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3-8 1971 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service . . . . . . . . 49 3-9 1979 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service . . . . . . . . 50 3 -1 0 19 8 5 PM Peak Hour Lev e 1 s of S e r vi c e . . . . 51 4-1 CPV Study Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 4-2 CPV Current Zoning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4-3 Average Trip Length . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4-4 Assumed Transportation Network. . . . . . . . . 78 4-5 Receptor Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5-l Alternative 1 General Layout. . . . . . . . 89 5-2 Alternative 2 General Layout. . . . . . . . . . 90 5-3 Alternative 3 General Layout. . . . . . 91 6-1 Community Accessibility . . . . . . . . 103 6-2 Comparison of Rights-of-Way .............. 104 6-3 Transit Network . . . . . . . . .......... 105 i

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LIST OF TABLES Table # Page 2-1 Elements of Automobile Emissions. . . . . . . . 8 2-2 Population and Vehicle Registration Comparison. 11 3-1 Effects of Carbon Monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . 21 3-2 Effects of Ozone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 3-3 National Ambient Air Quality Standards. . . . . . . 26 3-4 Pollutant Concentrations by SMSA. . . . . . . . .27-29 3-5 Summary of Air Quality in Denver 1985 . . 31 3-6 Mean Vehicle Registrations Per Household. . . . . . . . 41 3-7 Average Vehicle Occupancy . . . . . . . . . 43 4-1 Existing Land Uses in CPV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 5-l Model Input for Alternatives 1-3. . . . . . . . . . . . 92 ii

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1.0 THESIS CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Within the boundaries of Denver lies the largest undeveloped parcel of urban land in North America the Central Platte Valley (CPV). Development of this land, utilizing traditional land use/transportation relationships, will result in severely degraded air quality. This thesis views growth of the CPV as a unique and exciting opportunity for Denver, yet asserts that for air quality to be significantly improved, dependency on the automobile must be altered. Nontraditional methods of transport must be incorporated nto the physical design of the Central Platte Valley. 1.1 DEFINING THE PROBLEM An acceptable level of air quality is a common public goal and, in theory, can be relatively easy to attain. In practice, however, it is not easy because air is inherently a common pool resource. Garrett Hardin explains a common pool resource as: . . . a resource for which there are multiple owners (or a number of people who have rights to use the resource) and where one or a set of users can have adverse effects upon the interests of other users.1 1

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.Air is a common pool resource because it benefits all and cannot be excluded from use by others. The common pool of air over Denver is \ currently a significant problem. The "tragedy of the commons" is evident by the "brown cloud" (a brown haze of polluted air that hovers above the City) and continued nonattainment of air quality standards. The motorist, as the prime contributor to this problem, gains freely from the use of an automobile while sharing only minutely the responsibility for the public problem of degraded air. Hence, the motorist has little incentive to act individually toward a solution, for by foregoing personal transportation and using less polluting methods, the advantages of the auto are given up at significant cost and for little overall benefit.2 It is only when the majority of the commons participates that clean air is attainable. 1.2 METHODOLOGY This paper is not intended to prove that the air Denver residents breathe is sub standard; this is assumed as a given and is we 11 documented by various public agencies. Rather, this thesis should be viewed as a policy statement offering methods for reducing the vehicle miles traveled within the CPV, thereby improving the air. A. basic understanding of air pollution and its health effects is considered essential to this thesis. Information relating to air pollution was gleaned from -the vast body of information available through library research. Discussion tracing the evolution of laws regulating air pollution was derived primarily from the Colorado 2

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Revised Statutes. Primary data, in the form of computer modeling, was used to substantiate statements regarding the future air quality of the Central Platte Valle.y. The remainder of the information was obtained from the innumerable books and articles on the topic and interviews with experts in the air pollution control and transportation fields. 1.3 ORGANIZATION Chapter Two defines air pollution and identifies its sources. The evolution of legislative air pollution control efforts is reviewed. Chapter Three focuses on the Denver Metropolitan Area and compares its air quality of recent years to that of the nation. The causes of pollution specific to this area are examined. Chapter Four narrows the study focus to the Central Platte Valley. Projections of air pollutant emissions are made based on future land use and trips generated in the CPV. Chapter Five is a discussion of pollutant loading and includes a alternatives. transportation options to reduce matrix comparative analysis of Chapter Six concludes the thesis by providing a recommended pollution control alternative and summary. 3

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CHAPTER TWO AIR POLLUTION BACKGROUND 2.0 INTRODUCTION Air pollution is "the presence of foreign matter ... in the air which is detrimental to the health and/or welfare of man."1 Effects to people can be in the form of eye irritation,_ reduced visibility, impairment of breathing and mental functioning and aggravation of illnesses such as asthma, bronchitis and emphysema. In severe doses, air pollution can cause death. Other effects include the deterioration of human-made structures and materials and the destruction of crops. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an informational and historical backdrop to the current air pollution problem. Since the focus of this thesis is air pollution caused by automobiles, it will be beneficial to have, a general discussion of air pollution and vehicle A historical perspective will show that air pollution is not new but the sources have changed. Lastly, legislative action of air pollution control in the United States since the 1950's is reviewed. 2.1 AIR POLLUTION DESCRIPTION There are two basic forms of air pollution -particulate mattir and gases. Particulate matter is particles of solid or liquid 4

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substances in a wide range of sizes which either in the air or settle very slowly. Examples include dust, smoke and mist. Particulate matter may absorb, sea tter or reflect 1 ight. This can result in reduction of light available for photosynthesis and heating as well as decreased visibility. Gaseous pollutants are widely dispersed toxic molecules such as carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide and hydrocarbon vapors. Air Pollution Effects Effects of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter on the human respiratory system are: o increased resistance to air movements in and out of the lungs; o decreased ability of lungs to get rid of foreign matter; o adverse changes in the respiratory tissues; and o increased susceptibility of lungs to disease.2 Air pollution adversely affects humans in many ways besides endangering health. In 1979, it was estimated to cost $100 million a year to paint steel structures damaged by air pollution.3 laundering, cleaning and dyeing of fabrics soiled by air pollution cost about $240 million whil'e the damage to agricultural crops and livestock was estimated at $500 million.4 Another effect, to which no value can be assessed, is the aesthetic deterioration of the environment in the form of obscured view and unpleasant odors. 5

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Air Pollution Sources Air pollution is caused by numerous sources, which can be categorized into three types. : a) Single or point sources These are rather large and easily identified sources such as a power plant, petroleum refinery and steel mill. b) Area-wide or multiple sources These represent a large number of smaller sources which individually do not contribute significantly to the air pollution but collectively become a major pollution problem. c) Line sources -Freeways, highways and carrying a steady stream of moving vehicles contribute line sources of air pollution. Z.Z AUTOMOBILE EMISSIONS Over 214 million tons of air pollutants are released into the atmosphere annually in the United 5 States. Many air pollutants are a direct result of the incomplete combustion of fuels, including coal, oil, natural gas and gasoline. Transportation-caused pollutants released into the atmosphere account for over 60% of the total U.S. air pollution. 6 Of the total pollutants caused by people nationwide, approximately 7 5% of the carbon monoxide, 50% of the hydrocarbons and nearly 50% of all oxides of nitrogen emissions come from the automobile. 7 The engine of an automobile requires two factors as input in order 6

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to obtain the desired product of power. The engine requires fuel (gasoline) and air to burn the fuel. The components of fuel and air are: Engine Input -Description Gasoline: Air: nearly 100% Hydrocarbons 78% Nitrogen 21% Oxygen 1% Other Gases As mentio-ne -d-,power is the desired product to drive the vehicle. Power is not the only product, however, there is also heat and exhaust. harmless. Excess heat is distributed through the radiator and is The exhaust consists of burned gases and particulates which are emitted into the atmosphere. Some of the emissions are innocuous but the remainder are harmful pollutants. Table 2-1 lists the elements of emissions generated by a gasoline-powered vehicle. 2 . 3 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE "As soon as I had gotten out of the heavy air of Rome and from the stink of the smoky chimneys thereof, which, being stirred, poured forth whatever pestilent ia 1 vapors and soot they had enclosed in them, I felt an alteration of my disposition." 8 Seneca, Roman philosopher, 61 A.D. pollution is not a phenomenon of recent technology. The introduction of pollutants into the atmosphere is related historically to the use of fuels such as wood and coal to provide 7

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TABLE 2 19 ELEMENTS OF AUTOMOBILE EMISSIONS Automobile Emission Carbon Dioxide (COz) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Hydrocarbons (HC) Nitrogen (N) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Oxygen (0) Particulates (TSP) Sulfur Dioxide (SOz) Water Vapor Description Colorless, odorless gas; often used in carbonated beverages. Pollutant toxic gas. Pollutant sunlight gasoline. colorless, odorless, when combined with raw or partially burned Excess or unburned air. Pollutant -toxic gas, eye irritant; produces smog when combined with HC and sunlight. Excess or unburned air. Pollutant -suspended rna t ter; cause of visibility and health deterioration. Pollutant -odorous, colorless gas. Combustion product; seen on a cold day. 8

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heat, light and propulsion. Upon the early mastery of fire, tribesmen filled the air inside their dwellings with the pollutants of incomplete combustion. The invention of the chimney aided in directing pollutants from the dwelling but for centuries the open fireplace was the source of smoky emissions. The first known government attempt at air pollution control occurred when coal burning was prohibited by law in areas of London in 1273.10 The shift to an industrial civilization significantly increased the burden of pollutants in the atmosphere. Lewis Mumford describes the industrial cities as "dark hives, busily puffi.ng, clanking, screeching, smoking for twelve and fourteen hours a day ... Industrialism, the main creative force of the Nineteenth Century, produced the most degraded urban environment the world has t 1111 ye seen ... The reciprocating steam engine was a revolutionary breakthrough and had a profound effect on the advancement of technology. However, with coal as the primary fuel for the steam boilers, it also became a major contributor to the significant increase in air pollution both in Europe and North America. Atmospheric pollution in industrialized urban centers typically reached critical proportions. During the Twentieth Century there have been great changes in the technology of both the production of air pollution and its control. The steam engine fired by fossil fuels was replaced by the electric motor as the principal means for operating machinery. The 9

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replacement of coal by oil in many applications decreased ash emissions. Technological changes such as this altered the type of air pollution dramatically. Unfortunately, the proliferation of automobiles with gasoline-powered internal combustion engines has given rise to the nature of our present day air pollution problem. The first automobile regularly made for sale was manufactured by the Duryea Motor Wagon Company.12 Charles Edgar Duryea began building his automobile in Springfield, Massachusetts where it became successfully operable on April 19, 1892.13 Since that time, the automobile rapidly gained in popularity and became a very influential force in American lifestyle. Table 2-2 compares, by decade, the growth of population with the number of automobile registrations. Between 1900 and 1980, population growth of those over 18 years of age remained relatively consistent, increasing each decade by 11% to 26%. Vehicle registrations, however, fluctuated widely. The 1 arges t percent increase of 57 56% occurred between 1900 and 1910, soon after the advent of the automobile. An overlay of major historical events would explain the smallest percent increase between 1930 and 1940. The Great Depression, commencing October 29, 1929, sent America into difficult economic and social times. Post war prosperity led to tremendous urban and, eventually, suburban growth. The last four decades show increases of vehicle registrations between 44% and 51% while 10

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Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 TABLE 2-2 POPULATION AND VEHICLE REGISTRATION COMPARISON Total U.S. Population * 45,379,000 57,346,000 66,839,000 80,069,000 91,763,000 104,624,000 116,146,000 135,177,000 l6.4,055,000 Total U.S. Vehicle % Inc. Registrations ** 8,000 26% 468,500 17% 9,239,161 20% 26,749,853 15% 32,453,233 14% 49,161,691 11% 73,768,565 16% 108,435,903 21% 155,889,692 % Inc. 5756% 1872% 190% 21% 51% SO% 47% 44% Persons Per Registered Vehicle 5,672.4. 122.4 7.2 3 . 0 2 . 8 2.1 1.6 1. 25 1. OS 18 and older. (Source: Historical Statistics of the U.S., Bureau of the Census, 1975; and Statistical Abstract of the U.S., Bureau of the Census, 1984.) ** Private and Commercial, Publicly Owned Automobiles, Buses, and Trucks. (Source: Ward's Automotive Yearbook 1985, 47th Edition.) 11

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population only increased between 11% and 21%. The most dramatic trend is evidenced when the total population over age eighteen is divided by total vehicle In 1900 there was one vehicle registration for every 5,672 persons. Vehicle registrations increased at a rate far greater than population so that by 1980 there was one vehicle registered for nearly every person in the nation eligible to drive. 2.4 FEDERAL LEGISLATIVE INVOLVEMENT Air Pollution Acts Although serious known episodes of air pollution in the United States occurred as early as 1930, the U.S. federal government did not begin its involvement in air pollution control until 1955 with the passage of the first federal air pollution law. The following is a chronological listing of federal air pollution legislation. 1955 Public Law 84-159: The Air Pollution Control Act authorized the Public Health Service of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare to establish a program of research, technical assistance and training to state and local governments. Research was completed through contracts with other Federal agencies and by grants to universities. State and local air pollution and health departments cooperated by conducting field investigations. 12

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1959 Public Law 86-365: Funding for air pollution research was extended to 1963. Research continued to focus on establishing a greater understanding of. the technical and economic details of the air quality problem. 1962 Public Law 87-761: This action provided another two-year funding extension for air pollution research. 1963 .Public Law 88-206: Passage of the Clean Air Act signified significant federal effort. Congress emphasized its philosophy that the prevention and control of air pollution at its source is the primary responsibility of the state and local governments. Federal financial assistance and leadership was also deemed critical in the development of local control programs. The essential elements of the Clean Air Act are: 1. The acceleration of research investigations and training. 2. Matching grants to state and local agencies to establish or strengthen air pollution programs. 3. Federal authority to abate interstate pollution. 4. Control of air pollution originating in federal facilities. 1965 Public Law 89-272: The Clean Air Act was amended to provide federal authority to establish standards for 13

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controlling emissions from new automobiles. 1967 Public Law .90-148: The Air Quality Act passed by Congress; the act amended the 1963 Clean Air Act and served to expand the existing air pollution control laws. The new provisions included: 1969 1. The establishment of the United States atmospheric areas throughout on the basis of climate, meteorology and topography. 2. Requirement for state and local control agencies to establish air quality standards consistent with the national air quality criteria and recommended control techniques previously established. A time table for compliance was issued. 3. State and local agencies could establish emission standards which achieve a higher level of ambient air quality than those previously recommended. Public Law 91-137: Under this action, funds were appropriated to continue the fuel and vehicle research program of the 1967 Air Quality Act. The National Environmental Policy Act also passed in 1969. 1970 Public Law 91-604: The passage of this act amounted to nearly a complete revision of the 1963 Clean Air Act as amended by the 1967 Air Quality Act. The federal government's role in en orcemen t increased as emissions from automob i 1 es 14

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became specifically regulated. The amendment required the state and local governments to shoulder the responsibility of air pollution prevention and control. The newly created Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was given authority to direct the program. Each state was divided into Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR's) and then required to submit for EPA approval a State Implementation Plan (SIP). The SIP was to describe methods which the AQCR would undertake secondary pollutant standards to achieve within the primary and prescribed timeframe. Primary standards were set to protect human health and secondary standards were established to protect public welfare. One of the most significant features of the act was the requirement that by 1975 auto manufacturers reduce the emissions of new cars by 90 percent, a figure based on estimates of the pollution reduction necessary to protect human health.14 Related Acts While attempting to control air pollution, the federal government was also involved extensively in financially aiding highway and mass transportation development. The following two acts affected air pollution control: 1964 Urban Mass Transportation Act (UMTA): The federal government first entered the mass transit field in 1964 with 15

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the passage of the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964, 49 U.S.C. Section 1601-11. Grants were made available for purchases of by existing transit companies or to enable public agencies to buy out private transit companies. In addition, new transit systems, such as the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit project, were funded from UMTA grants. Those concerned with air pollution considered any new transit project a gain in the effort to diminish the adverse environmental effects of automobiles. 1970 Public Law 91-605: The federal government began assisting states in construction of roads with the Federal-Aid Road Act of 191615. Sensi ti vi ty to environmental impacts of highway construction was not seen until the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970. Congress incorporated a provision requiring that "the Secretary of Transportation shall assure full consideration of possible adverse, economic, social and environmental effects resulting from any federal-aid . ,,16 proJect. This eventually led to the required preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS). If it was determined that the proposed project would have significant and irreversible impacts, the final EIS may not be adopted. Federal dollars could not be spent on a project without an approved EIS. 16

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The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970 made highway funds available for "transit-related facilities such as exclusive or preferential bus lanes, bus-passenger loading areas and fringe and transportation corridor parking facilities to serve bus and other public mass transportation Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1973, 17 passengers." . Public Law The 93-87, substantially increased the funds available for mass transit projects from the Highway Trust Fund. Assessment This brief overview of legislative involvement reflects the concern of air quality over the recent decades. After a weak start in the mid-1950's, air pollution control rose to its apex in the 1970's, rising with the environmental movement characteristic of that decade. The outcry from industry bemoaning the expense of pollution controls, coupled with the recession of the late 1970's and efforts to rescind the laws, resulted in weaker enforcement. Areas unable to attain standards were given time frame extensions more than once. This continued leniency from EPA cast doubt on the seriousness of the air pollution regulations. The seriousness of these regulations is no longer being questioned in the Denver metropolitan area. Denver has been identified as a nonattainment area by EPA and given until 1987 to reach air quality standards. If standards are not met, the Denver region will likely lose $60 million dollars in federal highway and sewer funding. The features of Denver's a i r pollution and its attempts to reach 17

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attainment are discussed in Chapter Three. 2.5 SUMMARY The intent of this chapter was to define air pollution in general and then focus on transportation-related air pollution. A historical perspective showed how the sources of air pollution changed over the centuries, in relationship to the advancement of technology. Lastly, federal legislation was reviewed to see how control of air pollution was handled on the national scale. The next chapter will focus on the air pollution problem and methods of control in the Denver Metropolitan Area. 18

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CHAPTER THREE THE AIR POLLUTION PROBLEM OF DENVER 3.0 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this chapter is to look more closely at air pollution in the Denver area, its cause, and the methods currently utilized to mitigate the problem. 3.1 POLLUTANTS AFFECTING DENVER Several pollutants affect DenVer's air quality. The Colorado Air Pollution Control Division currently monitors nine such pollutants: 1. Carbon monoxide (CO) 6 . Lead (Pb), 2. Ozone (03 ) 7. Sulfates (S04 ) 3 . Nitrogen dioxide (N0 2 ) 8 . Nitrates (N0 3 ) 4. Sulfur dioxide (so2 ) 9 . Nitric oxides (NO) 5. Particulate matter (TSP) Of these, there are three pollutants which violate EPA standards and cause the greatest concern as health hazards . They are carbon . d d . 1 1 111onox1 e, ozone an part1cu ates. A brief description and health effect of each of these three pollutants follows. 19

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Carbon Monoxide Description Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless, tasteless gas resulting from the incomplete combustion process. In 2 urban environments, CO is by far the most abundant pollutant. Urban carbon monoxide is produced primarily by motor vehicles. In Denver, over 90% of the CO emissions are from vehicular sources. 3 The remainder originate from other combustion sources such as heating, incineration and power generation. Health Effects Carbon monoxide deprives the body of oxygen by reducing the blood's oxygen carrying capacity, thereby lowering the volume of blood distributed to various parts of the body. The effects are headaches, loss of visual acuity, and decreased muscular d . . 4 coor 1nat1on. It can dull thinking, cause dizziness and drowsiness, and impair exercise capacity. Extreme bodily saturation of CO can result in coma, brain damage and death. 5 Table 3-1 displays the effects of CO with given concentrations. Ozone Description Ozone is a colorless, odorless gas at normal ambient concentrations. It is formed from the sunlight reaction of chemical hydrocarbons (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both emissions of vehicular exhaust. The highest ozone levels occur during the summertime when strong sunlight and stagnant meteorological conditions cause this pollutant to remain in one area for an extended period.

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Concentration ppm 5 5 to 10 30 70 to 100 200 500 1,000 2,000 TABLE 3-1 * EFFECTS OF CARBON MONOXIDE Exposure Time 20 minutes _ , _ 8 hr or more 2 to 4 hr 2 to 4 hr 2 to 3 hr 1 to 2 hr Effects Reflex changes in the higher . nerve centers Average levels of CO in most large cities Impairment of visual and mental acuity (five percent carboxyhemoglobin) Maximum levels occurring in some large cities Tightness across the forehead, possible slight headache Severe headache, weakness, nausea, dimness of vision, possibility of collapse Rapid pulse rate, coma intermittent convulsions, Cheyne-Stokes respiration Death with and All effect levels pertain to healthy individuals. Specific effect levels for individuals who for other reasons are approaching the levels of tolerability are not available. Source: Interstate Air Pollution Study, Phase II Project Report, Part 4 Effects of Air Pollution. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. December 1966. 21

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Health Effects -High levels of ozone in the atmosphere can impair the mechanical functioning of the lungs,6 especially in persons who exercise. It can also alter calc if i cation of bones, resulting visual acuity and increase the in premature aging. 7 See Table 3-2 for effects at various concentrations. Particulate Matter Description As described in the previous chapter, particulate matter consists of small particles of solid or semi-solid material. Sources of particulate matter, sometimes referred to as total suspended particulates (TSP), are motor vehicles, stationary sources and fugitive dust. 8 Two sources are causing increasing concern -diesel vehicles and wood-burning stoves and fireplaces. Due to the nature of particles in the air to block and scatter sunlight, they are "the cause of Colorado's most apparent air pollution problem -the brown cloud."9 Health Effects The human respiratory system filters out about half of the particles, but the smallest can be deposited deep in the lungs. The accumulation of these particles can slow the exchange of oxygen with carbon dioxide, resulting in shortness of breath. Some particles, particularly those emitted from vehicles, may be toxic or carriers of toxic -substances. There has been increasing evidence that particulate matter "may contain mutagenic or carcinogenic compounds."10 22

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Concentration EEm 0 0.01 0.02 for 8 hr. 0.03 for 8 hr. 0.05 0.05 for 1 hr. 0.10 for 1 hr. 0.05 o.o5b 0.10 0 . 1 to 0.25 long term 0 . 10 for 8 hr. 0 .20 for 3 hr. 0.60 1 for 1-1/2 hr. 3 to 12 for few hrs. TABLE 3-2 EFFECTS OF OZONE Effectsa Ozone considered radiomimetic --no safe level. Odor threshold of ozone. Damage to tobacco' leaves begins. Significant damage to tobacco leaves. Nose and throat irritation threshold. Damage to tobacco leaves begins. Significant damage to tobacco leaves. Pine tree needle tips burned. Threshold for eye irritation in sensitive people (ambient oxidant). Generally stated eye irritation threshold for normal people (ambient). Reduction in oxygen consumption and blood oxygen tension (concentration) levels of emphysema patients, compared to effects on some patients breathing filtered air (ambient). Shortens life span, increases mortality of guinea pigs. Definite symptomatic effects in sensitive people. Decrease of visual acuity. Cough irritation threshold, pronounced nose and throat irritation. Coughing, irritation, severe exhaustion. Lethal to small laboratory animals. As determined from laboratory experiments using ozone except where otherwise noted. Ambient measurements are for "total oxidants". 0.25 ppm by the phenolphthalin method. ;ource: Interstate Air Pollution Study, Phase II Project Report, Part 4 Effects of Air Pollution. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. December, 1966. 23

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Figure 3-1 displays the percentage of contribution to pollutidn levels from various sources. Approximately 93% of carbon monoxide emissions, 85% of hydrocarbon emissions (which photochemically react to form ozone), and 37% of nitrogen oxide emissions in the Denver area are contributed by motor vehicles. Although motor vehicles contribute only 7% of particulate emissions, automobile traffic is responsible for an addi tiona! 68% of particulates through roadway surface deterioration. 3.2 NATIONAL COMPARISON OF POLLUTANTS BY SMSA Denver has long enjoyed a national reputation as being a youthful, heal thy city in the pristine setting of the. Rocky Mountains. That reputation is rapidly changing as the air pollution over Denver worsens. When compared to all Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's), the Denver-Boulder SMSA has some of the highest pollutant concentrations in the nation. Table 3-3 is a listing of the current National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) established and enforced by EPA. The standards for CO, o3 and TSP on this table should be used as the base goal for which to compare Table 3-4. This next table compares EPA-reported pollutant concentrations of CO, o3 and TSP of all SMSA's in the 1-Z million population or greater range. 24

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Figure 3-1 CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLLUTION LEVELS FROM VARIOUS SOURCE CATEGORIES IN THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE AREA o 10 20 30 40 so . b.o 70 so 10oo/"o I 1 I I I I I I I I I I AIRCRAFT . ::0 STATIONARY SOURCES MOTOR VEH fCLES 1 ( CUTBACK ASPHALT lO X STATIONARY SOURCES MOTOR VEHICLES AIRC .RAFT . . SPACE HEATING MOTOR VEHICLES SPACE HEATING MOTOR VEHICLES STATIONARY SOURCES STATIONARY SOURCES DUST Woodburning infor .mation was not available when this inventory N_ew data will become available in 1985-86. , .. . . . Source: Colorado Department of Health, Air Pollution Control Division. Report to the Public -1985, p. 11.

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TABLE 3-3 NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS (NAAQS) POLLUTANT AVERAGING TIME CONCENTRATION Particulates (TSP) Annual Geometric Mean: 75 ug/m3 60 ug/m3 Primary Secondary 24-Hour:** Primary Secondary 260 ug/m3 150 ug/m3 Lead (Pb) Calendar Quarter: 1.5 ug/m 3 Primary Carbonide Monoxide (CO) 1-Hour:** Primary 35 ppm (40 mg/m3) Ozone (03) 8-Hour:** Primary 9 ppm (10 mg/m3) 1-Hour:*** Primary & Secondary 0:12 ppm (245 ug/m3) Nitrogen Dioxide (N02) Annual Arithmetic Mean: Primary & Secondary 0.053 ppm (100 ug/m3) Sulfur Dioxide (S02) * ** *** ppm ug/m3 mg/m3 = = = Annual Arithmetic Mean: Primary 0.03 ppm (80 ug/m3) 24-Hour:** Primary 3-Hour:** Primary Federal guideline only. 0.14 ppm (365 mg/m3) 0.5 ppm (1300 mg/m3) Not to be exceeded more than once per year. Statistically estimated number of days with exceedances not to be more than 1.0 per year, averaged over a three year period. Parts of pollutant per million parts of air. Micrograms of pollutant per cubic meter of air at 760 mm Hg and 25C. Milligrams per cubic meter. Source: Colorado Department of Health, Air Pollution Control Division. Colorado Air Quality Data Report, p.9. 26

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TABLE 3-4 POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS BY SMSA Carbon Monoxide Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area Carbon Monoxide Concentration (PPM) Population: 2 million New York, NY-NJ Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Detroit, MI San Francisco-Oakland, CA Washington, DC-MD-VA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Houston, TX Boston, MA Nassau-Suffolk, NY St. Louis, MO-IL Pittsburgh, PA Baltimore, MD Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Atlanta, GA Population: 1-2 million Newark, NJ Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, CA Cleveland, OH San Diego, CA Miami, FL Denver-Boulder, CO Seattle-Everett, WA Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Phoenix, AZ Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Milwaukee, WI Kansas City, MO-KS San Jose, CA Buffalo, NY Portland, OR-WA New Orleans, LA Indianapolis, IN OH San Juan, PR 3an Antonio, TX Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL 3acramento, CA 'l"ote: N/0 = Nonoverlapping * = Less than 4 380 hourly ND = N o Data PPM = Parts per million Highest 1980 15 25 14 9 8 7* 13* 5 8 11* 10 14 11 11* 12 16 15 18 11 9 15* 21 12 10 CA 8 19* 6 8 9 16 5 13 ND 11 12 ND 8 10 13* values of 27 2nd MAX 8-HR N/0 Average 1981 1982 15 13 21 19* 10 14 10 12 12 10 7 9 13 12 7 7 7 10 10 21 11 10 11 9* 11 11 13 12 13* 14 10 8 13 13 12 11* 10 9 9 9 15 11 28 15 14 12 8 7 9 7 19 18 10 8 . 9 9 15 12 11 11 6 5 12 10 7 10 15 11 10 9 13* 18 8* 8 10 9 12 10 data

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TABLE 3-4 (cont.) POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS BY SMSA Ozone Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area Population: > 2 . million New York, NY-NJ Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Detroit, MI San Francisco-Oakland, CA Washington, DC-MD-VA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Houston, TX Boston, MA NY St. Louis, MO-IL Pittsburgh, PA Baltimore, MD Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Atlanta, GA Population: 1-2 million Newark, NJ Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, CA Cleveland, OH San Diego, CA Miami, FL Denver-Boulder, CO Seattle-Everett, WA Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Phoenix, AZ Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Milwaukee, WI Kansas City, MO-KS San Jose, CA Buffalo, NY Portland, OR-WA New Orleans, LA Indianapolis, IN Columbus, OH San Juan, PR San Antonio, TX Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL Sacramento, CA Ozone Concentration (PPM) Highest 1-HR 2nd High 1980 1981 .18 .18 .44* .35 .15 .14 .24* .17 .15* .15 .18 .14 .19 .15 .18 .15 .30 .23 .15 .13 .18 .14 .18 .15 .16 .18* .17 .14 .10 .15 .14 .16 .29 . 12 .22 . 15 .13 .09 .13 .38 .15 .16 .14 . 16 .19* .14 . 10 .12* .14 . 13 ND . 12 .12* . 17 . 14 . 31 . 12 .24 .14 .13 . 12 . 12 .34 . 16 . 13 . 17 . 12 .14 .12* .15 . 12 . 13 . 11 .07 • 1 2 . 11 . 17 Note: * = Less than 50% of days in Ozone season ND = No Data PPM = Parts per million 28 Daily 1982 .17 .32 . 12 .18 .16 .14 .15 . 17 . 21 .16* .13 .16 .14 .14 .10 .14 .17 .18* . 13 .21 .14 .14 .09 • 1 2 .32 . 12 .13 . 13 .10 .14 . 11 • 1 2 .17 . 12 .13 .07 .14 .09 . 16 Max

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TABLE 3-4 (cont.) POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS BY SMSA Suspended Particulates Standard Metropolitan Suspended Statistical Area Population:> 2 million New York, NY-NJ Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Detroit, MI San Francisco-Oakland, CA Washington, DC-MD-VA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Houston, TX Boston, MA Nassau-Suffolk, NY St. Louis, MO-IL Pittsburgh, PA Baltimore, MD Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Atlanta, GA PoEulation: 1-2 million Newark, NJ Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, Cleveland, OH San Diego, CA Miami, FL Denver-Boulder, co Seattle-Everett, WA Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL CA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Phoenix, AZ Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Milwaukee, WI Kansas City, MO-KS San Jose, CA Buffalo, NY Portland, OR-WA New Orleans, LA Indianapolis, IN Columbus, OH San Juan, PR San Antonio, TX Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL Sacramento, CA CA Particulate Highest 1980 68 123 118 75 138 66 67 77 159 74 59 167 115 90 114 65 84 100 148 95 84 199 84 89 197 177 110 102 113 76 109 159 72 82 78 96 90 66 74 Concentration (UG/M3) Annual Geometric Mean 1981 1982 68 59 121 84 111 86 82 68 116 112 56 53 65 53 77 78 151 133 62 71 56 54 190 134 100 65 90 7 2 100 73 79 63 95 72 104 86 129 101 95 76 97 48 183 169 87 74 82 57 157 102 178 140 84 78 73 62 96 71 64 53 97 82 114 88 82 63 80 67 74 68 94 81 73 100 69 48 68 55 The annual geometric mean is calculated if the data collected satisfies the NADB validity criteria or at least 30 days of 24-hr data (50% of the EPA recommended sampling days) have been collected. JG/M3 = Microgiams of pollutants per cubic meter of air. 29

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Table 3-4 provides some astounding comparisons; it shows that in 1980 Denver's CO level was greater than all SMSA's in the 1 2 million population range and second only to the Los AngelesLong Beach, California SMSA. Denver's concentration was higher than those areas commonly noted for severe pollution: New York, New York; Newark, New Jersey; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Table 3-4 also lists ozone levels by SMSA, the second pollutant of concern. Although by far not the worst concentration, Denver's level exceeds the EPA-established NAAQS. The most disturbing comparison is that of suspended particulate concentrations where EPA standards are again exceeded. In 198 0, Denver had a higher leve 1 than all SMSA's except for the Gary-Hammond-East Chicago, Indiana SMSA. Denver's concentration was higher than Los Angeles, New York, Detroit and Pittsburgh. In 1982, Denver's particulate concentration was exceeded by no other SMSA in the nation. This consistently high level of particulates is due, in part, to the area's high altitude; particles are 1 ike ly to rem a in suspended in the air for a longer period, thus increasing the likelihood of being breathed and trapped in the lungs. Looking at 1985 levels, Table 3-5 shows that Denver continued to exceed air quality standards for CO, 0 3 and TSP. It is no surprise that Denver is nationally now considered a young, polluted city with a "big city" problem. When compared to the big cities, this degraded reputation is richly deserved. 30

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----... 1'"\YCI di)IIIK Counties with Highest Concentration Monitored Pollutant Times Standard Violations Location Carbon Arapahoe 1 hour 35. ppm Denver, Qoulder CAMP• Monoxide B oulder 6 h o ur s 9 ppm CAMP Denver Denver, Jefferson Jefferson Ozone Adams 1 hour .120ppm Boulder Arvada .. Arapahoe Denver Bou .lder Jefferson Jefferson Nitrogen Ad ams Annual .053 ppm none CAMP Dioxide Arapahoe Denver Sulfur Adams 3 hr 0.500 ppm none CAMP Dioxide Denver 24 hr 0.140 pprn none CAMP Annual 0.030 ppm none CAMP Total Adams 24 hr primary 260 ug/m1 Adams, Denver, Golden ... Suspended Arapahoe Jefferson Particulate Boulder Annual 75 ug/m1 All CAMP Denver Douglas Jefferson Lead Adams Denver Quarterly 1.5 ug/m1 none CAMP for 1. ) , 11. 2 4 hour tim<'S,thc secootl conccotution h used current wording ol the. the loit:IH!>t eJCh site to he it;noretl tlut: to unusu.al meteorological conditions. • 21st •nd Denver .. S 7th Arvad• .. "911 1Oth Street, Golden Source: Colorado D ep artment of llea1th, Air Pollution Control Division. Colorado Air Quality Report to the Public -1985, p. 13. Value 44 ppm 21 ppm .140 ppm .04 7 ppm .090 ppm .040 ppm .011 ppm 535 ug/m1 142 ug/m1 0 .9 ug/m1

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3.3 FACTORS OF AIR POLLUTION Before recommending to reverse this condition of extremely poor air quality, it's important to understand how Denver came to be in this situation. There are several causes for the severity of the air pollution, the primary ones being physical setting, climate, growth and transportation. Physical Setting The Denver area encompasses two major climatic and topographic zones of the western United States, namely the mountains and the plains. The South Platte River Valley lies at the edge of the plains and at the base of the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Figure 3-2 is a map of the six-county Denver area shown in relationship to the State of Colorado. Mountains Jefferson The Counties western lie in portions of the mountainous Boulder, Douglas and portion of the Denver Region, and 12,000 feet, the continental divide, with an average elevation of forms the western boundary of Boulder County. At the eastern edge of the mountainous area, a series of foothills commonly known as the "hogbacks" begin at around 6,000 feet, and serve as the dividing feature between the mountains and valley areas. The mountainous portion of the region in Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson Counties covers approximately 1,300 square miles of the six-county Denver Region. 32

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SIX-COUNTY DENVER REGION . '' ' ADAMS AaAPAHOE ElBERT ;.. '1 •• ' : . .. .v:<. ... ''i.: .. I'Aso A,:, ' .. .: ., SAN ... '. ' ,. .. ' ... lOGAN liNCOLN r: . .:.: ' .. lENT •'f :' . . , ., SEDGWICK l'!:flllii'S YUMA KIT CAUON CHEYENNE KIOWA l'aowus lAC A

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Plains The plains area of the region covers about 1, 6 00 square miles in the eastern 50 miles of Adams and Arapahoe Counties. The area is generally characterized by low, rounded hills and wide floodplains on intermittent streams which drain north of the South Platte River in Weld County. The broad, rolling plain varies little in elevation from about 6,000 feet on the west to 4,600 feet in northeast Adams County. Valley -The valley portion of the Denver Region lies between the mountains and plains and comprises approximate 1 y 1, 8 0 0 square miles of the six-county Denver Region. Most of the population of the region lives in the 400 square mile urbanized portion of the valley covering Denver and parts of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson Counties. In 1980, over 95% of the 1. 7 million people living in the Denver area were located in this urbanized area which covered less than 10% of the land area of the region.11 Climate The Denver region enjoys a relatively mild and semi-arid, temperate continental climate. In winter, the eastward flow of Pacific air masses from the west is disrupted by the Front Range, causing heavy snowfall in the mountains while Denver typically enjoys sunny skies and dry air. Inversion While t his proximity t o t h e moun t a ins hel p s to produce 34

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a pleasant climate, it also exerts a strong influence on the City's air pollution. After sunset, very cold heavy air will flow down off the mountains cooling the metropolitan area and carrying the pollutants produced that day north along the South Platte River. In the city the ground cools and sends stored warmth upwards. Winds from the mountains warm as they lose elevation and then level out above the plains, forming a lid over the polluted cooler air below. As the morning sun warms the ground, the air in the city begins to warm and rise, mixing with carbon monoxide from automobiles of the morning rush period. The sun's rays hit the foothills at a more direct angle, warming the air. If the foothills air warms enough, it breaks through the lid, drawing away some of the pollution on the rising air currents. However, on cold days, the 1 id rem a ins in place. Cold air and continually building pollution are trapped beneath the warm lid. This condition is referred to as an inversion. speed of Air pollution potential depends upon the direction and winds near the surface, the vertical distribution temperatures with increasing height above the surface location and form of constraining topographic features. factors control dispersion of pollution within the air. of air and the These During periods of inversion, there is little or no mixing of air which would allow dispersion. The sources of pollution then contribute significantly to the degradation of air quality. 35

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Growth of the Denver Metropolitan Area Denver, the capital of Colorado, is historically an American boom town. The discovery of gold in 1858 along the South Platte River and its tributaries led to the area's first settlements. By 1860, Denver City was formed w ith a population of over 1,000 people. Gold deposits were quickly exhausted but the mountains to the west were found to be rich in gold, silver, zinc, lead and copper. Denver rapidly grew to a population of 5, 000 in 1870 and then to over 35,000 just ten years later. Agriculture on the plains fared especially well with sugar beets, cattle and sheep raising. Due to its pleasant climate and good railroad access, Denver became a tourist center in the early 1900's. During World War II, the growth of the region increased as industries expanded and federal installations were opened. By 1940, the Denver region had a population of over 445,000. The development pattern of the region was contiguous sprawl with the exception of small areas of development around Wheat Ridge and the older portions of Lakewood. Separate developments i n Arvada, Littleton, Aurora and Golden as well as Boulder and Longmont had long been established as distinct agricultural, mining, railroad or educational communities. Following increased World War I I, the Denver impact of the automobile area began to experience on its urbanized pattern development as a proliferati on of suburban development occurred. 1 950, the region had a population of 612,000 a n d the pattern urbanizati o n b e g a n t o reflect a disp ersed suburban character. 36 the of By of The

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construction of Interstate 25, Interstate 70 and several arterials during the late 1950's and through the 1960's significantly influenced the region's commercial and residential development in an outward direction. Currently, well over one-half of the state's population lives in the Denver area. While the core city of Denver has grown very little since 1960, the suburban areas have experienced phenomenal growth. The Denver area has been the transportation, cultural and political center for the state since the early gold rush days, and today Denver is not only the state economic center, but it is an economic center for all the surrounding mountain states as well. The historical development of the region is illustrated in Figure 3-3. Population in the six-county area has grown at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent per year since 1970.12 The City of Denver now has a population of about 500,000 and the metropolitan area has a total population of 1 . 8 million sprawling westward into the foothills of the Front Range and eastward onto the Great Pl . 13 a1ns. The majority of recent growth in the region has been from new residents moving into the area. Over 50% of the change in population from 1960 to 1970 was attributable to net migration, and from 1970 to 1980, nearly 75% of the population growth of the region . d . . 14 was aga1n ue to net m1grat1on. 37

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Figure 3-3 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT 1940 DEVELOPED AREAS l:!!i!!il!mmmll940-1960 DEVELOPED AREAS li!llllll! 1960 -1975 DEVELOPED AREAS

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The number of households and employment have increased since 1970 at rates even faster percent per year, than population; . 1 15 y. 3. 9 percent per year and 4. 6 With the number of households increasing at a rate higher than that of population, the number of persons per household decreased. Figure 3-4 represents the six-county area's growth since 1970. Surface Transportation The Denver region is a transportation oriented. metropolitan area. Its major growth generally coincided with the increasing use of the automobile and its present pattern of urban development resulted largely from the effects of the automobile. Consequently, the region has one of the highest ratios of cars to people in the nation. Vehicles Per Household The number of vehicles per household reflects a propensity to drive rather than use other travel modes. As shown in Table 3-6 and Figure 3-5, the vehicle registrations peT household in the six counties have, on the average, increased between 1970 and 1984. Vehicle Occupancy -This continually growing rate of vehicles per household, in combination with the declining rate of persons per household indicates a rise in disposable income and a great 16 propensity for increase in low occupancy auto travel. 39

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(S-ixCounty. Area)\ 2.0 Population . . Employment 1 .s ..... House h o r en c 0 1.0 --2 0.5 . 70 72 74 76 . 78 80 82 84 Year . . . • . ; Source: DRCOG Estimates

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TABLE 3-6 MEAN VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS PER HOUSEHOLD County 1970 1980 1984 Adams 2.83 2.80 2.71 Arapahoe 2.48 2.37 2.42 Boulder 2.34 2.43 2.56 Denver 1. 78 1. 61 1. 96 Douglas 3.45 4.00 3.48 Jeffer-son 2.73 2.55 2.83 Six-County Average 2.23 2.27 2.44 Source: DRCOG from State Motor Vehicle Registration 41

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2.0. 1.8 L6 1.4 . . 2 1.0 ).8 ).6 70 FIGURE 3-5 Total Vehicles Registe.red (Six-County Area) 72 -. . 74 76 42 78 80 82 84

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In fact, average vehicle occupancy continued to decline in the Denver metro area during both the peak and off-peak periods as represented in Table 3-7. TABLE 3-7 AVERAGE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY Denver Area 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 --Peak 1. 24 1. 23 1. 21 1. 20 1. 20 1.17 Off Peak 1. 51 1. 40 1. 32 1. 30 1. 2 7 1. 2 5 Weighted Average 1. 32 1. 28 1. 23 1. 23 1. 22 1.19 Source: Colorado Department of Highways 4 3

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Vehicle Miles of Travel Overall, the best measure of auto utilization is region-wide vehicle miles of travel (VMT). From 1971 to 1981, VMT in the Denver .urban area increased 9 million miles per day, or 64 percent. Throughout most of the 1970's, the growth was fairly steady at 900,000 to 1,000,000 miles per day each year. However, fuel price increases did produce VMT reduction in 1980 of 300,000 miles. In 1981, with steadying fuel prices, VMT increased by 2 million miles, returning essentially to the level anticipated under historical increases. That auto travel is increasing faster than growth in population and employment is evidenced when considering VMT per This has risen 31 percent since 1971 to 16.5 miles per day. Thus, smaller household sizes, increasing auto availability, and less ridesharing have, in combination, led to a rise in per person vehicle tripmaking. Vehicle Trips and Emissions There is naturally a direct relationship between this increased number of trips and automobile emissions. The severe air pollution will occur when traffic volume on a roadway approaches the system's capacity. When this situation occurs, traffic speed drops and emissions of certain pollutants increase. Figure 3-6 shows the relationship of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides to speed. High carbon monoxide concentrations are emitted at idle and during deceleration, low concentrations during acceleration and cruising. More hydrocarbons are emitted during idle and deceleration than under cruising or acceleration. Cruising at low speeds tends to produce mor e emissions o f this t ype t han a t high speeds. T h e concentration of 4 4

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Figure 3-6 Fuel Consumption and Emissions of Carbon Monoxide, Hydrocarbons, and Nitrogen Oxides from Driving 1 , 000 Miles at Various Uniform Spee.ds ( For I i g h t-d u t y v e hi c I e s ) 0 10 20 30 .w UNIFORM SPEED 50 MPH 60 70

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nitrogen oxides depends primarily on the temperature of combustion. Thus, high concentrations of nitrogen oxide are found during acceleration and while cruising at high speeds. Lower concentrations are noted during deceleration and even lower during idle. The relationship involving particulates is not established due to the complexity of engine design, fuel/air ratio, and mode of operation. However, it is significant to acknowledge that diesel engines emit a heavy amount of TSP. Levels of Service -It is important to look next at the operating characteristics of Denver's transportation network; in other words, assessing how well traffic moves. The term "level of service" is a general term that describes the operating conditions that a driver will experience while traveling a particular street or highway. In addition to the physical characteristics of the highway, the traffic volume or presence of other vehicles affects level of service. Measurable i terns of level of service include frequency of stops, operating speed, costs. The most travel time, traffic density and vehicle operating commonly used measures are operating speed for uninterrupted flow, such as on a freeway and amount of delay for interrupted flow, such as on a city street. There are six Levels of Service (LOS) established to represent varying conditions, ranging from LOS A to LOS F. Figure 3-7 is a pictoral description of all six levels. LOS A is identified by little or no in maneuverability due to few other vehicles on the road. Drivers can maintain desired speed with 46

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LEVELS OF SERVICE FOR FREEWAY AND EXPRESSWAYS UNDER UNINTERRUPTED CONDITIONS Level of Service A Free flow, no restrictions on maneuvering or operating speed; operating speed 60 mph. Level of Service B Stable flow, few restrictions; operating speed 55 mph. Level of Service C Stable flow, more restrictions; operat1ng speed 50 mph. Level of Service D Approaching unstable flow; operat1ng speed 40 mph. Level of Service E Unstable flow, some stoppages; operat1ng speed 30-35 mph. Level of Service F Forced flow, many stoppages; operating speed 30 moh.

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little or no delay and flow is stable. The other extreme is LOS F, represented by forced-flow operation at low speeds, \here volumes are below capacity. Stoppages may occur for short or long periods of time because of downstream congestion. The correlation can then be made between air pollution potential and level of service, that is, the lower the level of service and, hence, lower speeds, the higher the emissions of CO and HC and the lower the NO . X Figures 3-8 through 3-10 compare the level of service on the region's highway network from 1971 to 1985. During this 14-year period, the network degraded from operating at a highly acceptable level to a point where an overwhelming majority of the urban network operates at LOS E and F. The factors previously mentioned more vehicle registrations per household, increasing rates of population and households, decreasing auto occupancy and increased trips per household in combination with little increase in the system's capacity, serve to explain this network degradation. In addition, it helps to understand the current air pollution problem. 3.4 CURRENT MITIGATIVE EFFORTS rhat the Denver region has an air pollution problem should come as 10 surprise to most residents of the area. Numerous task forces, 1gencies and departments have been established over the decades at 111 levels of government to tackle this problem. The Air Pollutio n :ontrol D i v i s i on (A.P.C.D.) of the State Department of Health i s 48

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SH 119 1-70 us 285 1rce: DRCOG from COOH N Jot to Scale Longmont SH 119 1-25 US85 r-1gure 1971 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service LOS A,s:c 1 1 L 0 S D LOS US85 1-225 1-25 1-76

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SH 1 1 9 57 US285 e : DRCOG from CDOH • N t to Scale Longmont SH 119 , ' \('0\tS c \'0/ '-US85 1-25 County Lin e Figure 3 9 1979 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service LOS A,B,C .._I __ ----J L o s o LOS E,F fi!BD'WJ us 85 1-25 1-76

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SH 119 jer -1157 1 70 US285 urce: DRCOG from CDOH N -Jot to Scale Longmont SH 119 1 -25 C\i .,.. US85 • v-1 v 1985 PM Peak Hour Levels of Service LOS A,B,C .._I __ . L o s o LOS E,FUS85 1-25 1-76

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designated with the responsibility of controlling air pollution. Through a state statute, A.P.C.D. monitors a comprehensive air pollution control program. That statute has a provision which allows local municipalities to establish their own pollution standards which must be at least as rigid as the State's but may be more so. The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) had the more localized task of controlling air pollution along the Front Range. The responsibility has recently shifted to a newly-created Denver Metropolitan Air Quality Council. This new body is expected to be oriented to policy-making and not enforcement. Therefore, the A.P.C.D. is still considered the lead enforcement agency. The A . P . C.D . implements control. The remainder strategies. Better Air Campaigns many different strategies of this chapter briefly for air quality describes those rhe Better Air Campaign is a voluntary program directed at reducing :arbon monoxide caused by gasoline powered vehicles. Area drivers .;ere urged to leave their cars at home one weekday a week under a ;ystem of voluntary "no-drive" days. Days were assigned based on a lriver's license number. On high pollution days, when carbon tonoxide reductions were most needed, the Better Air Campaign Lppealed to all metro area motorists to cancel or postpone their Lonessential auto trips. 52

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The development of the campaign began in 1983 based on the idea that a broadly supported, voluntary community program could be an effective and economical wa.y to help achieve air quality standards for b . d 17 car on monox 1 e. The program was initiated between November 15, 1984 and January 15, 1985, and aimed at motorists in the City and County of Denver and the surrounding urbanized areas of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson counties. The goal of the campaign's first year was a reduction of vehicle miles traveled on high pollution days by five percent. Results of the 1984-85 campaign indicated the five percent reduction was achieved in the metro area and an even greater reduction of 5-8% was achieved in downtown Denver. On a more discouraging note, 96 percent of motorists knew about the program and 85 percent approved f . . 1 . 18 o 1 ts 1mp ementat1on. This indicates widespread knowledge and approval yet minimal participation. The Better Air Campaign started its second and more aggressive season on November 15, 1985 and ran through January 15, 1986. While different reports conclude varying levels of participation, the Department of Health states the 1985-86 campaign resulted in a ten percent driving reduction. In order to achieve standards for carbon monoxide by 1987, a reduction of fifteen percent in vehicle miles traveled must be met. If this standard is not realized by then, the EPA could sanction the Denver area by withholding $60 million in federal aid . 19 53

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In order to achieve next year's goal of fifteen percent reduction in traffic, the Better Air Campaign will likely be expanded to include voluntary restrictions on the use of fireplaces and wood stoves.20 Automobile Inspection and Readjustment (AIR) Program Pollutant emissions can be attributed, in part, to vehicles with improper air/fuel ratios which result from incomplete fuel combustion. The AIR Program requires a yearly inspection of all vehicles in the Front Range except pre-1968 vehicles, diesels and motorcycles. Since the implementation of the AIR Program in 1981, Front Range ambient air quality has improved approximately ten f b .d 21 percent or car on monox1 e. Controls on Diesel Vehicles The popularity of diesel vehicles has intensified concern of the effects these vehicles have on air quality. Not only have care inogeni c substances been identified in die se 1 particulates, but diesel particulates are contributors to Denver's "brown cloud."22 In December 1983, the Air Pollution Control Division made a number of recommendations to the State Legislature for control of diesels. S.B. 193 was passed and became effective January 1, 1985. This legislation provides for: * changes to the existing Colorado statewide opacity standard allowing for increased enforcement and more stringent fines. * a Diesel Inspection/ Maintenance Pilot Study Program 54

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* adding diesel testing capability to the A.P.C.D's vehicle testing centers * bl. f I d 23 a pu 1c 1n ormat1on e ucat1on program Due to its recent implementation, impacts of this program on air pollution reduction levels are not yet measurable. These three control programs have done little to reduce the current air pollution problem. A far greater level of participation in the Better Air Campaign is needed for the carbon monoxide standard to be met. The increased participation from the 1984-85 campaign to the 1985-86 campaign is attributable, in part, to the unseasonably mild winter of 1985-86. It simply was not as much of a hardship to ride transit given the low average snowfall and spring-like morning temperatures. Higher participation in the future is unlikely; it is difficult for an individual motorist to justify the inconvenience of carpooling or riding transit when their contribution to the overall problem is infinitely small. The AIR Program would be more effective if vehicles were inspected prior to yearly vehicle registration as is now being considered by the Colorado legislature. Currently, vehicles are to be voluntarily brought to a certified station for inspection and, if passed, are given a sticker valid until the next year, same month. Many vehicles have stickers beyond the renewal date and are ticketed only if discovered by an enforcement officer. These programs seem weak and essentially ineffective. 55

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3.5 SUMMARY The purpose of this chapter was four-fold: * look more closely at the pollutants that affect the Denver area, * compare the air quality of Denver to the rest of the nation, * consider the causes of air pollution in Denver, and * review the measures currently in place to reduce pollution. It was shown that three pollutants are exceeding EPA air quality standards: carbon monoxide, ozone, and particulates. The effects of each pollutant are detrimental to the health and welfare of the residents of the Denver metropolitan area. Denver's air quality rates extremely poor when compared to all other SMSA's in the nation. In particular, Denver's level of particulates is the very worst in the nation and its carbon monoxide concentration is second only to the Los Angeles SMSA. The proximity of Rocky Mountains the metropolitan area to the Front Range of is responsible for the frequent inversions the and little dispersion of pollution. Denver's growth has been relatively quick and at a very low density. It has cemented a dependent relationship on the automobile, the primary contributor of carbon monoxide. 56

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The control measures to mitigate injurious levels of pollution have been ineffective as evidenced by continual noncompliance of standards. Stronger measures are needed to seriously combat the insidious air. . The next chapter considers the future development of a specific area in Denver the Central Platte Valley. The question is raised of what the future air quality wi 11 be given this development and the generated automobile traffic. 57

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CHAPTER FOUR FUTURE AIR QUALITY IN THE CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY 4.0 INTRODUCTION The previous chapter established the basis of the current air pollution problem in the Denver metropolitan area. This chapter discusses the future air quality of the Central Platte Valley (CPV), a 600 -acre area contiguous to down town Denver. illustrated in Figure 4-1. 4.1 CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY DESCRIPTION The study area is The CPV has long been eyed for redevelopment. As the largest parcel of undeveloped urban land in North America, the CPV is considered a key element of Denver's future development. It is seen as key essentially for two reasons: image and economics. Image The CPV is currently zoned primarily industrial and, as such, is beset with rail lines and warehouses. Figure 4-2 identifies specific zones within the Valley and Table 4-1 describes their permitted use. This expanse of unsightly land serves as the gateway to Denver for the heavy volume of motorists traveling along I-25, the northwest boundary of the site, and Speer Boulevard, which bisects the Valley. The concern is that this introduction to the City produces a jaundiced image. Developing the unique open space 58

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THE STUDY AREA Colfax Ave. ..... "iY lrr----11 Figure 4-: 1 J I , ,. .

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MAJOR ZONES Figure 4-2] j:::::::::::J Industrial e:-:-:-:: -:-r Reside :p t i a 1 fii11] Commercial

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I-1 TABLE 4-1 DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING LAND USES IN CPV GENERAL INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT. Allows many along warehousing retai 1 and and wholesaling service uses activities, for the benefit manufacturing, with limited of the area employees. Building floor area cannot exceed 2 times the site area. Generally no setback requirements. I-2 HEAVY INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT. Allows all manufacturing, warehousing, wholesaling and mineral extraction activities. Limited retail and service uses for the benefit of area employees are permitted. No limitations on the size or location of buildings. This district should not be located adjacent residential or business zones. B-7 BUSINESS RESTORATION ZONE. Intended to preserve and improve older structures which are architecturally and/or historically significant. This district allows light industrial, general retail, wholesale, services, offices and high density residential uses. Additional floor area is allowed with the development of residential units, underground parking or open space areas. Building floor areas cannot exceed 2 times the site area. However, with premiums the floor area can be increased to 4 times the site area. Building height not controlled by bulk standards. 0-1 OPEN USE DISTRICT. Allows airports, recreational uses, parks, cemeteries, reservoirs, and other open uses including a limited number of public and semi-public activities housed in buildings. Setback requirements apply to the location of buildings. 61

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of the CPV into a . thriving, dynamic center will the overall image of Denver. Economics There are many markets in the core area of Denver that have yet to be successfully tapped: employment, cultural, recreational, retail and housing. Due to the City's inability to annex additional land, which results in loss of economic base to surrounding areas, the CPV offers the opportunity for Denver to capitalize on its most prominent example of unde-rutilized land. The CPV presently contributes only $56,000 annually in property and sales taxes. With future development and the use of tax increment financing, the area is projected to generate $15-20 million per year.1 This would be the second largest single economic generator for the City, the first being Stapleton Airport. 4.2 CENTRAL PLATTE VALLEY CONCEPT PLAN In the past twenty years there have been several major redevelopment plans for the CPV. None succeeded due to lack of consensus on questions such as amount of open space, the scale and character of new structures, impacts to neighborhoods and how to finance the high infrastructure costs. Early in 1984, the Platte Valley Development Committee (PVDC), representing key public and private interests, was formed by Mayor Federico Pena. Its task was to achieve a unified balance of private 62

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development, public policies and neighborhood desires. Appendix A provides a list of all representatives involved on the committee. After an eighteen month pro.cess, the PVDC presented the culmination of its efforts, the Central Platte Valley Concept Plan. The plan is considered a policy statement, not a planning document. All assumptions in this thesis regarding development were derived from the CPV Concept Plan. The CPV Concept Plan provides initial policy direction on land use, open space, the railroad corridor, transportation, flood control and historic To provide an augmented understanding of the committee's vision for the CPV, the recommendations of each are summarized below; land use is also described in greater detail later in this chapter. Land Use The CPV is to develop as mixed use with eleven distinct sub-areas, each having its own design character. Support retail as opposed to regional center development is emphasized. A height limitation cap of 250 feet is placed on all buildings. Residential use is slated to be apartments and townhomes. Open Space The addition of nearly 115 acres of open space and parks to an existing 3 7 acres is recommended with a focus on the waterways of Cherry Creek and the South Platte River. Park sizes are to range in scale from neighborhood to city. Specifics include a network of 63

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bike paths and walking trails, ballfields and space to enhance restaurant, entertainment and cultural activities. The Concept Plan does not specify i . f the additional open space is acquired through developer dedication or outright City purchase of land. Rail Corridor Development of the CPV is most dependent on the replacement of existing rail lines, which are scattered throughout the Valley, with a consolidated mainline corridor. The corridor would be buffered on either side with extensive berming and landscaping to reduce noise, vibration and potential hazard. Transportation Emphasis is placed on upgrading interchanges off I-25 to improve access and vehicular circulation to the Valley and the downtown area. Provision is made for mass transit and pedestrian routes to link the eleven sub-areas; parking requirements are flexible to reflect market demand. The Concept Plan recognizes the opportunity for incorporating various forms of mass transit and pedestrian links; however, the Concept Plan views the automobile as the "primary transportation mode for most people".2 Flood Control The Concept Plan calls for improvements to the Platte River to reduce potential of flood damage. Land use development i s not to alter the present flood control mechanisms for Cherry Creek. 64

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Historic Preservation The CPV is the area of Denver's origins yet only one Denver Landmark remains, the Forney Transportation Museum. There are sixteen buildings in the Valley may be eligible for historic designation; unfortunately, they are widely scattered and do not lend themselves to the creation of a historic district. Nonetheless, preservation or adaptive re-use of historic buildings and structures is encouraged. 4.3 FUTURE LAND USE PERCENTAGES Eventual rezoning of the CPV would allow a maximum development of twenty-five million square feet. Given market absorption rates, however, the Concept Plan assumes that a range of development between eighteen and twenty million square feet is feasible. This chapter assumes nineteen million square feet of development in the I Valley over a thirty year period. Various periods of build-out are mentioned in the Concept Plan; the thirty-year 'time frame was chosen. Should the development of twenty-five million square feet occur, the pollutional loads would be worse than those under the assumed nineteen million square feet. The Concept Plan assigned the following percentages to land uses within the CPV: 65

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Mix of Land Uses Percentage of Total Square Land Use Develo_Ement Footage Office and Employment 65% 12,350,000 Residential 16% 3,040,000 Retail 7% 1,330,000 Hotel 6% 1,140,000 Public Activities 6% 1,140,000 Total 100% 19,000,000 At the time the Concept Plan was presented, the intended use for public activities was a new convention center to be located behind the Denver Union Terminal building. In November 1985, a public . referendum was held to decide whether this was an appropriate location for Denver's new convention center. The outcome of the vote was a solid "No". Since this time, the Plan has not been revised to reflect an alternate use of the public activities square footage. This chapter assumes the most plausible use to be office and employment; therefore, the percentage of square footage for office and employment is adjusted as follows: Adjustment of Land Use Mix Percenta-ge of Square Land Use Total Develo_Ement Footage Office and Employment 71% 13,490,000 Residential 16% 3,040,000 Retail 7% 1,330,000 Hotel 6% 1,140,000 Total 100% 19,000,000 66

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It is helpful to look at the total development in phases. Lacking any substantive economic data regarding amount of growth and when it may occur, a straight line projection of development was applied and phases in increments of 10 years established. Land Use by Phase Land Use 10 years 20 years 30 years Office and Employment 4,451,700 9,038,300 13,490,000 Residential 1,003,200 2,036,800 3,040,000 Retail 438,900 891,100 1,330,000 Hotel 376,200 763,800 1,140,000 Total (Sq. ft.) 6,270,000 12,730,000 19,000,000 The Concept Plan discusses the Valley being developed with eleven subdistricts. However, there is no guideline as to the percentages of various land uses within each subdistrict. Therefore, for the purpose of projecting air pollutants, the square footage of development is assumed to be evenly distributed. 4.4 AIR POLLUTION COMPUTER MODELS To project air pollution resulting from development of the CPV, two computer models were used, both developed by the State of California, Air Resources Board: URBEMISHl and CALINE3. These models were chosen for the output provided, their availability in the public realm and the ability to be performed on a personel computer. 67

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URBEMIS#l models levels of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides generated from different phases of development. The results are used to compare the pollutional loading of each development phase against the existing condition. CALINE3 predicts carbon monoxide generated from vehicle trips on a transportation network. The results are CO in parts per million which are then compared to the EPA standard for CO. URBEMISil This model determines the emitted tons per year of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides based on land use vehicle trips generated within the site. A drawback of the model is that the results cannot be converted into units in which the NAAQS are established as well as previous tables showing health effects of pollutants and national comparisons of carbon monoxide, ozone and particulates. URBEMIS#l is useful to compare orders of magnitude between scenarios proposing varying densities of land use or to compare the effects of alternatives which reduce the vehicle trips. In this case, it was used to determine the pollutant loading associated with each phase of development. l.and Use The first input variable to the URBEMIS#l model is the of land use being proposed. The office and employment and retail uses require units of square feet (s.f.); the residential use requires units of dwelling units (D.U.); and the hotel use requires lumber of rooms. The square footage figures for office and and retail were previously established. The total units 68

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for the residential and hotel uses were obtained through discussion with Mac Callison of the Denver Public Works Department, Transportation Division. The following table displays the land use input by phases. Model InEut Land Use Land Use 10 years 20 years 30 years Office and Employment 4,451,700 s. f. 9,038,300 s. f. 13,490,000 s. f. Residential 1,353 D.U. 2,747 D.U. 4,100 D . U. Retail 438,900 s. f. 891,100 s. f. 1,330,000 s. f. Hotel 693 Rms. 1,407 Rms. 2,100 Rms. Vehicle Trip Rates -A second factor required as URBEMIS/#1 model input is the number of daily vehicle trips generated by each land use. The initial source for this information was the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual. Given verification from Mac Callison, the rates were then adjusted downward to reflect the urban setting of the CPV. Typically, fewer trips are made in a vehicle when land use density is high as more trips are pedestrian or transit-oriented. By applying trip rates to a l l land uses, the total daily vehicle trips are determined. The result is the total production and attraction of all trips by each land use, thereby avoiding double counting of trips. For example, a morning trip produced at home will be attracted to the workplace, a shopping center or another location such as a d entist office. A n a fternoon trip will b e produce d at the workplace and 69

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attracted to home or another location such as a restaurant. The total trips in this example are two trips. The morning trip was "home based" and the afternoon trip was "nonhome based". URBEMIS/11 determines trips for each of these categories. The home-based trips are determined by the amount of residential square footage and the nonhome-based trips are dependent on all other land uses. URBEMIS/11 further defines these categories into types of trips: Types of Vehicle Trips NONHOME BASED 1. Nonwork e.g. travel from shopping center to restaurant 2 • Work e.g. travel from work to restaurant HOME BASED 1. Home, Work e.g. travel from home to work 2 • Home, Shop e.g. travel from home to shopping center 3 . Home, Other e.g. travel from home to dentist office This represents all the kinds of vehicle trips that would take place within the site. The distribution (ie, the origin and destination) of these trips, and, therefore, the length of each trip, will impact the amount of pollutants emitted. T h e following table displays the trip generation rates multiplied by the full build-out of development to produce total daily ve hicle trips in t h e CPV. 7 0

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Calculation of Vehicle Trips Total Daily Land Use (30 yr.) X Trip Rate = Vehicle Trips Office and Empl oyment 13,490,00 0 s. f. 12/1,000 s. f. 161,880 Residential 4,100 D.U. 6/D.U. 24,600 Retail 1,330,000 s. f. 26.5/1,0 00 s. f. 35,245 Hotel 2,100 Rms. 9.2/Rms. 192320 241,045 Total A total of 241,0 45 daily vehicle trips are projected to occur within the study area, given the aforementioned assumptions. This is more than twice the daily vo lume o f traffic currently on all lanes of I 70 just east and west of I-25 and nearly four times as much daily volume as travels U.S. 36 at I-25. The development of the CPV will produce trips not only internally but will attract trips from the metropolitan region. Another breakdown of types of trips is to categorize them as internal-external and external-internal. 0 Internal-Internal: A trip produced and attracted fully within the site. 0 Internal-External: A trip produced in the site and attracted to a location outside the site. 0 External-Internal: A trip produced outside the site and attracted to a location within the site. \. fourth type of trip is the external-external, or through, trip. 71

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An example would be a motorist traveling Speer Boulevard through the site and not making a stop within the site. Through trips may be seen as significant with tnis study area given. I-25 and the major access points to the downtown area which bisect the study area. However, to determine future through trips requires a costly model run of the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) Year 2000 Regional Network and is outside the scope of this thesis. In addition, the through trips would not be related to the proposed development si.nce no trip is either produced nor attracted in the site and would be occurring even if the CPV were not developed. Lastly, the background air quality factor assumes a regional increase in traffic volume and accounts for the pollutants contributed by the external-external trips. The internal-external and external-internal trips are considered in this thesis internal-internal once the trip is within the site. The concern is not where in the region the trip came from or is going to, only what it does while in the site. Therefore, the total 241,045 trips are considered trips directly generated by the proposed CPV development. To consider through trips would result in ln even worst-case pollutant load. rrip Length -A third input requirement is the length of each trip :ype. A DRCOG Year 2000 Regional Network model run could produce an LVerage trip length within the metropolitan region produced or Lttracted in the site for each type of home-based and nonhome-based :rip. However, since all trips are considered internal-internal, 72

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only the distance traveled within the site is of concern. All trips will have scattered origins and destinations throughout the Valley and, due to the previous assumption of equally distributed land use, this thesis assumes the trips to be evenly distributed as well. The average trip length is then calculated by averaging the length of the site by its width. (See Figure 4-3). This results in an average vehicle trip length of 1.125 miles. By multiplying total daily trips by trip length, the vehicle miles of travel (VMT) is determined. URBEMISHl calculates pollutional load from VMT. Other Input Factors -Another variable in the model is the average travel speed of the vehicles. Chapter Three established the relationship between travel speed and pollutant emissions. Given the probable downtown-like setting with traffic signals and numerous turning movements in addition to an average trip length of 1.125 miles, an average travel speed of 20 mph was assumed. A final input factor is the cold start temperature of a vehicle. To represent a worst-case scenario of the winter season, a cold start temperature of 350 was used. The next lower input variable allowed was however, this seemed unreasonably low for the Denver area. Model Results Four different scenarios were modeled using URBEMISHl: Existing, 10 years, 20 years and 30 years of development. The input values for t he future phases of development wer e d iscussed; the existing 73

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terage Trip Length • , 1.125 Miles 2 Figure 4-3

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scenario used warehouse and manufacturing land uses as input in which acreage was determined from aerial photography measurement. URBEMIS#l Model Results Total Daily Vehicle Trips Vehicle Miles of Travel Pollutant CO (Tons/yr.) HC (Tons/yr.) NO (Tons/yr. ) X Existing Land Use 3,766 4,236 100 15 2 CPV Development 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years 79,541 89,483 1,544 201 36 161,497 181,684 3,136 410 72 241,042 271,171 4,681 612 108 Each phase of development produces astonishing amounts of pollutants. Although this cannot be compared directly to the standards, one can consider the present air quality of the area in the previous chapter along with the fact that the CPV is the region's topographical sink. Additional development in this 'sink" w ill make an already bad situation worse. A meteorologist .vi th the Colorado Department of Health sees the CPV as "the worst uea to develop when considering air pollution."3 Appendix B :ontains detailed model results. 75

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CALINE3 Carbon monoxide is the pollutant of most concern in the Denver region. This computer program predicts carbon monoxide concentrations near roadways. The model results can then be compared to EPA standards for air qua 1 i ty compliance. The program is based on the Gaussian diffusion equation and uses a mixing zone concept to characterize pollutant dispersion. Site Variables There are several input variables required to best represent the atmospheric and meteorological conditions of the site. The following is a list of the variables and the values used as input. In all instances, the worst case condition was reflected. Wind Direction -the lowest wind speed of 1 meter/second was entered. Atmospheric Stability the most stable condition (Class F) was assumed. Mixing Height -due to Denver's frequency of inversions, a low mixing height of 100 meters was entered. Ambient Concentration the Colorado Department of Health ppm for 1 hour CO provided a Year 2000 value of 26 concentration. This is an important variable because it provides the background air quality condition . • ink and Receptor Data Input Since CALINE3 predicts CO near oadways, :ntered. a representation of the transportation system must be The network is represented by a series of links, each link 76

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being a straight segment of roadway having a constant width, height, traffic volume and vehicle emission factor. The transportation system used for modeling purposes was derived from the CPV Concept Plan and is illustrated in Figure 4-4. The system was disaggregated into ten links. Pollution levels are measured at given receptor points. This provides an indication of the air pollution a pedestrian would breathe. The model results are in the form of a matrix showing the ppm of CO at each receptor as dispersed by each link. A receptor will not be impacted by a link that is more than 150 meters away. Thirteen receptor locations were chosen, each location significant to the development of the CPV. Three locations along the Platte River and one next to Cherry Creek are intended to represent b i eye 1 is ts, runners and other peop 1 e using the greenway and open space. to be Two receptors were placed near 16th Street, an area likely pedestrian-oriented with extension of the 16th Street Mall. Another receptor was placed near Auraria campus to monitor another high-pedestrian location. The next three receptors were placed near the six-lane spine road that will carry the majority of the trips. These three receptors were placed at different distances from the spine road to see how far the "contour line" of poor air extended. Two receptors were placed at opposite ends of the site and one near Lower Downtown to provide site extremes. See Figure 4-5 for location of receptors. 77

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--Roadway 1 link Number Figure 4-4 tion Network

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1 Receptor Re . . Figure 4-ceotor L 5 ocation

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Traffic Volume The 241,045 total daily vehicle trips previously discussed were rounded to 241,000. This figure was divided by a typical peak hour factor of .12 to determine the total trips that would occur during the most traveled hour of the weekday. These total peak h our trips were then divided by the total number of lanes on all links to calculate trips/lane. This figure was then multiplied by the number of lanes on each link to determine trips/link. This method assumes, as did URBEMISI#l, an equal distribution o f trips. The c alculations are detailed below. Road\ay Traffic Volume Calculations 241,000 Daily Vehicle Trips x .12 (Peak Hour Factor) = 28,920 Peak Hour Trips 28,920 I 28 Total Lanes = 1,033 Trips/Lane Segment X 1,033 Trips/Lane = Trips/Link Characteristics 1 1.5 2 4 6 lane lanes lanes lanes lanes 1,033 1,550 2,066 4,132 6,198 Some adjustments were made for the number of lanes assumed for Speer Boulevard, 15th Street, 19th/20th Street and 23rd Street. These are existing roadways and operate close to capacity during peak periods. It is unlikely that any of these roadways could absorb significant loading of additional traffic. With each roadway, the 80

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existing number of 1 ane s was increased 2 5%. The mode 1 then assumed that only the trips generated -by the CPV development would be carried by the additional lanes. For example, the link representing 15th Street was modeled with one lane and not four. The existing four lanes carry external-external trips, the impacts of which a r e accounted for in the ambient air quality. Modeling of Existing Roadwaz:s Number Existing of Lanes Roadway Lanes Modeled Speer Blvd. 6 1.5 15th St. 4 1 19th/20th St. 6 1.5 23rd St. 4 1 Other Input Factors The emission factor of vehicles is another variable and one which significantly affects model results. Rick Barrett of the Colorado Department of Health provided two average emission factors, one re_presenting Winter 1986 (existing) and the second representing Winter 2000 (future). The existing average factor of 173.46 is substantially higher than the future 1verage emission factor of 79.82. The Department of Health is 1ssuming a purging of older, inefficient vehicles and the production >f cleaner fleets of vehicles by the Year 2000. The future assumed re hicle emission factor was entered. 81

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The final input variable is the mixing zone width which is simply the traveled portion of the roadway segment. Each 1 ane is determined to be 3.3 meters and a total of 6 meters is added to each segment to account for sidewalks and curb and gutter. Model Results Three scenarios were modeled, The existing condition was one not for each phase of modeled because development. the assumed transportation system is not in place, with the exception of Speer Boulevard, 15th Street, 19th/20th Street and 23rd Street. These four roadways, however, carry trips that are not associated with the future development. The following tables present the results of CALINE3 and provides a comparison to air quality standards. 82

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10 YR DEVELOPMENT CO Emissions by Link Receptor CO/Link TOTAL PPM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 . 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.8 2 0 0 0 . 2 1.1 0 0 0 0 . 7 28 3 0 0 0 0 1.9 . 8 0 0 0 0 28.7 4 0 0 0 0 4. 7 0 0 0 0 0 30.7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 1 0 26.1 6 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0 0 0 27.6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 3. 8 0 0 0 29.8 9 0 0 0 0 0 . 5 0 0 0 0 26.5 10 0 0 0 0 3.2 0 0 0 0 0 29.2 11 0 0 0 0 2. 5 0 0 0 0 0 28. 5 12 0 0 • 4 1.6 2.3 0 0 0 0 0 30.3 13 0 0 0 0 0 1.8 . 2 0 0 0 28 This table indicates that with thirty-three percent of development (or the first ten years) no receptor experiences air pollution above the EPA standard of 35 ppm. Link 5 ' the mid-Valley spine road, contributes more pollutants than any other link. 83

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20 YR DEVELOPMENT CO Emissions by Link Receptor CO/Link TOTAL PPM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.7 2 0 0 0 . 5 2.4 0 0 0 0 1.5 30.4 3 0 0 0 0 4 1.7 0 0 0 0 31.7 4 0 0 0 0 9.7 0 0 0 0 0 35.7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 3 0 2 6.3 6 0 0 0 0 0 3.2 0 0 0 0 29.2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 . 7 0 0 0 33.7 " 9 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 27.1 10 0 0 0 0 6. 5 0 0 0 0 0 32.5 11 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 31 12 0 0 • 8 3.3 4.6 0 0 0 0 0 34.7 13 0 0 0 0 0 3.7 . 4 0 0 0 30.1 The twenty year scenario results in receptor 4 exceeding standard. Receptor 4 typifies a pedestrian walking next to the spine road. A.gain, Link 5 ' representing the spine road, is the source of the highest levels of pollutant emissions. 8 4

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30 YR DEVELOPMENT co Emissions by Link Receptor CO/Link TOTAL PPM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 2. 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.5 2 0 0 0 . 7 3.6 0 0 0 0 2.3 32.5 3 0 0 0 0 6 2. 6 0 0 0 0 34.6 4 0 0 0 0 14.5 0 0 0 0 0 40.5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 5 0 26.5 6 0 0 0 0 0 4.8 0 0 0 0 30.8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.5 0 0 0 37.5 9 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 0 0 0 0 27.7 10 0 0 0 0 9.8 0 0 0 0 0 35.8 11 0 0 0 0 7.6 0 0 0 0 0 33.6 12 0 0 1.3 4 . 9 6 . 9 0 0 0 0 0 39.1 13 0 0 0 0 0 5. 5 . 6 0 0 0 32.1 With full buildout of development, four receptor locations exceed standard: 4' 8 ' 10 and 12. By scanning down the matrix and across it becomes evident that the links causing nonattainment are links 2 ' 3 ' 4, 5 and 7 or fifty percent of the transportation network. It is important to emphasize that the ambient air quality of 26 ppm is, at best, an optimistic estimate. The existing ambient air quality is 35 ppm, equal to the standard. If the future estimate is off by just 5 ppm, the majority o f the receptors in the Valley \vould exceed standard. 85

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The fact that any location exceeds standard is unacceptable. It violates the City's efforts to improve the air and jeopardizes the acquisition of federal highway funding. It also risks the success of the development. The public is more keenly aware of the unpleasant effects associated with air pollution. Responses to this could range from refusal to live or shop in such a polluted area to companies choosing not to locate in the CPV. While a basic premise of this thesis is that development of the CPV is worthwhile, it also asserts that care must be taken now to avoid the situation presented above. 4.5 SUMMARY This chapter has shown that the traditional transportation approach to land use development must, in the case of the CPV, be avoided or the City faces serious air pollution consequences. The next chapter provides some alternatives to reduce air pollution in the CPV. 86

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CHAPTER FIVE ALTERNATE SOLUTIONS TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION 5.0 INTRODUCTION This chapter discusses three alternate solutions for the air pollution impact which will result from development of the Central Platte Valley. Unlike the base condition established in the previous chapter, each alternative incorporates a transit component. 5.1 ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT The previous chapter detailed the total peak hour vehicle trips generated from three phases of development and the subsequent impact of each. The peak hour trip demand of 28,920 trips resulting from full buildout will serve as the base condition from which to compare the three alternatives. Each alternative starts with the control total of 28,920 trips as the demand to be satisfied and then modifies the percent served by road and by transit. 'In this way it wi 11 be determined what mode split is necessary to reduce air pollution to an acceptable level. The alternatives focus on a single goal, the reduction of auto trips. The CALINE#3 model is again used to provide comparisons. 87

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Alternative One -75\ Auto/25\ Transit This alternative modeled seventy-five percent of the total peak hour trip demand onto the same transportation system with the remaining twenty-five percent served by transit. An example of what such a network could look like is illustrated in Figure 5 -l. It is assumed that the transit component is nonpolluting such as a battery-operated or electric source powered unit. Alternative Two -50% Auto/50\ Transit This second alternative represents an even distribution of vehicle trip demand between modes of travel. One-half of the total peak hour trip demand was loaded onto the transportation system with the same input values except mixing zone width. The capacity of each link was reduced by one-half to more efficiently accommodate the reduced auto volume. The links have characteristics more of a collector or local street. Refer to Figure 5 2 for an example layout of this alternative. Alternative Three -25\ Auto/75% Transit The last alternative considered only twenty-five percent of the peak hour demand being served by automobiles and the remainder accommodated on transit. This alternative assumed the same mixing zone width as Alternative Two. As illustrated i n Figure S -3, the transit system would have to be extensive. In fact, the transi t system should be an integral part of a regional network to assure accessi b i l i t y . Table S-1 l ists the volume a nd mixing zone input for t h e three alternati v es. 88

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--Roadway Transit . . f// ';/ ' ' r e s-'\ U . . La'1out Alternative 1 Geflera\

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--Roadway Transit Figure 5-2 Alternative 2 General Layout "'Y f

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a a ROadway Transit Figure 5-3 Alterrlative 3 -General Layout

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* TABLE 5 l MODEL INPUT FOR ALTERNATIVES 1-3 Peak Hour Vehicle Trips* Mixing Zone Width (m)** Link Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3 Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3 1 1550 1033 517 12.6 9.3 9.3 2 775 517 258 9.3 7.65 7.65 3 775 517 258 9.3 7.65 7.65 4 4649 3099 1550 25. 8 15.9 15.9 5 4649 3099 1550 2 5. 8 15.9 15. 9 6 3099 2066 1033 19 . 2 12.6 12.6 7 3099 2066 1033 19 . 2 12 . 6 12.6 8 1163 775 388 10.95 8.48 8 . 48 9 775 517 258 9 . 3 7 . 65 7 . 65 10 1163 775 388 10.95 8.48 8.48 0.12 percent of trips resulting from full buildout of development. ** Mixing zone width not divisible directly in half due to the s i x meter constant. 92

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5.2 COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVES Two criteria are applied . to each alternative in an attempt to identify the preferred alternative. The first criteria assesses the number of receptors above the 35 ppm standard. The second criteria weights the number of receptors above 30 ppm. This second criteria is applied largely because the author feels the ambient air quality, provided by the Colorado Department of Health, is extremely optimistic. The Denver region continues to grow and this growth will be fueled by the completion of C-470 and construction of W-470 and E-470, circumferential routes which, in total, will form a large "hub" to support numerous "spokes". Chapter Three discussed the trend in decreasing auto occupancy resulting in more vehicle miles of travel. Denver and its region is auto-oriented and growth will cause the home-to-work trip to increase in length. These factors, the author believes, will offset the future ambient air quality and feels a more conservative assumption should be made. Therefore, the difference between existing and future ambient air quality was split in half and receptors above 30 ppm assessed. 93

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M o d e l Results The model results of each alternative are presented below. Alternative 1 --75% Auto/25% Transit CO/Link TOTAL PPM Receptor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 1.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.9 2 0 0 0 . 5 2. 7 0 0 0 0 1.7 30.9 3 0 0 0 0 4. 5 1.9 0 0 0 0 32.4 4 0 0 0 0 10 . 8 0 0 0 0 0 36.8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 3 0 26.3 6 0 0 0 0 0 3.6 0 0 0 0 29.6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.6 0 0 0 34.6 9 0 0 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 27.2 10 0 0 0 0 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 33.3 11 0 0 0 0 5. 7 0 0 0 0 0 31.7 12 0 . 9 3.7 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 35.7 13 0 0 0 0 4.1 . 4 0 0 0 0 30.5 By reducing the auto trips to seventy-five percent of the total, two receptors continue to exceed standard: #4 and 12. Six other receptors are very close to standard, that is, they are within 5 ppm: #2, 3, 8, 11 and 13. 94

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Alternative 2 -SO% Auto/50% Transit CO/Link TOTAL PPM Receptor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 1.2 0 0 0 o . 0 0 0 0 27.7 2 0 0 0 . 3 1.7 0 0 0 0 1.1 29.1 3 0 0 0 0 2. 8 1.2 0 0 0 0 30.0 4 0 0 0 0 7.6 0 0 0 0 0 33.6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 2 0 26.2 6 0 0 0 0 0 2. 2 0 0 0 0 2 8. 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 o . 0 0 31.2 9 0 0 0 0 0 . 8 0 0 0 0 26.8 10 0 0 0 0 4 . 6 0 0 0 0 0 30.6 11 0 0 0 0 3.6 0 0 0 0 0 29.6 12 0 • 6 2.4 3.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 32.3 13 0 0 0 0 2.6 . 2 0 0 0 0 28.8 By reducing trip demand served by autos in half, no receptors exceed standard. However, five receptors are within 5 ppm: 1#3, 4, 8, 10 and 12. 95

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Alternative 3 --25% Auto/75% Transit CO/Link TOTAL PPM Receptor 1 2 3 .4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 . 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.6 2 0 0 0 . 1 . 8 0 0 0 0 . 5 27.4 3 0 0 0 0 1.4 . 6 0 0 0 0 28.0 4 0 0 0 0 3. 8 0 0 0 0 0 29.8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 1 0 26.1 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 27.0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 28.6 9 0 0 0 0 0 • 4 0 0 0 0 26.4 10 0 0 0 0 2.3 0 0 0 0 0 28.3 11 0 0 0 0 1.8 0 0 0 0 0 27.8 12 0 . 3 1.2 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.1 13 0 0 0 0 1.3 . 1 0 0 0 0 27.4 This alternative results in no receptors being above standard or within 5 ppm. 96

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The following matrix compares the alternatives against both criteria. Alternative ComEarison Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3 Criteria 1 : # Receptors above 35 ppm 2 0 0 Criteria 2 : # Receptors above 30 ppm 7 5 0 Alternative 3, which recommended reducing trips satisfied by auto to twenty-five percent with the rest riding transit, is the preferred alternative. Of the three alternatives, it is the only one which has no receptors above standard or within 5 ppm. 5.3 SUMMARY This chapter presented three alternatives to reduce air pollution, each a modification of the total trip demand served by auto and by transit. After reviewing results of each, a matrix analysis showed the preferred alternative to be Alternative 3 25% Auto/75% Transit. The next and final chapter describes the components necessary for this alternative to be successful as well as concluding the thesis. 97

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6.0 INTRODUCTION CHAPTER SIX RECOMMENDED ALTERNATIVE The third alternative, 25% Auto/75% Transit, is the recommended alternative. This alternative requires a transportation system that discourages automobile use and encourages transit use. Thus, the solution results in the least amount of pollutants emitted in the Valley. This chapter discusses some key elements necessary in making traqsit successful as well as supplementary techniques to support the recommended alternative. 6 . 1 CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL TRANSIT SYSTEM If given a choice of auto or transit use, people typically choose the automobile for the perceived freedom and mobility it provides. If properly designed, a transit system can also provide freedom and mobility. However , there are several criteria which must be applied to assure the long-term success of a transit system. Needs of Key Groups The first criteria requires that the transit system meet the principal needs of key groups. Since the future land use in the CPV will be varied, the groups designing and using the s ystem will vary as well. The need s of seven groups should b e und erstood prior to a 98

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system's design: citizens, political leaders, retail owners, business, developers, educators and students, and transportation planners.1 Citizens Want transportation at their convenience and the freedom to stay after work to shop and not to worry about "missing the bus". Want their transportation costs low and do not want to worry about parking, insurance, fuel or taxes. Want to avoid bad weather. Want to avoid traffic problems. Wish for safe and inexpensive ways for children to go to school, lessons and events. Who are handicapped blind, deaf, old and immobile want the accessibility of fully mobile citizens. Want to travel safely and privately. Do not want the overbearing pollution of downtown. Especially those who work or are single parents wish for children to have safe mobility without high insurance costs. Who are economically disadvantaged want access and mobility. Political Leaders Would rather not use monies for subsidies of systems that are increasingly expensive and not broadly used. 99

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Do not want the economic pressure of high initial capital cost of present transit. Wish for beautiful center cities with gardens, no pollution, and unclogged streets. Do not want excessively prolonged installation of transit systems. disruptions for Do not wish to repair potholes constantly. Do not wish to engage in extensive condemnation procedures. Wish to introduce ideas that benefit large numbers of constituents. Wish to increase economic vitality and wish for the ultimate parking structure to be individual garages at home. Retail Owners Wish for their stores to be accessible at noon and after work. Wish to be nodes of travel. Wish to advertise easily to travelers. Wish for downtown stores to be as free from impediments as possible, e.g., parking in dank parking garages. Wish to avoid weather impediments. Want safety for their employees who work late. Want to attract patrons from as large an area as possible. Wish for beautiful surroundings. Do not want their products damaged by pollution. 100

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Business Want easy access for employees. Want employees to arrive without fatigue. Want safety for their employees who work after or on second shifts. Want ease of connection with ancillary facilities: airports (even in rush hour), universities, medical centers, retail stores, parks, restaurants. Want ready access to associated businesses. Want pleasant surroundings. Developers Want buildings easily connected to each other. Want closeness to population centers. Want easy and rapid access to ancillary facilities. Want to avoid the necessity of high buildings with their expensive construction costs. Do not wish to dissipate resources for parking facilities. Wish to integrate city and suburban centers. Educators and Students Wish to avoid parking problems. Wish to make the institution maximally accessible at all times --day and night. Wish to reduce travel times. Wish to have access to widely varying educational experiences at different sites. Wish to be accessible to t h e very young as well as to the less mobile and more mature. 101

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Transit Planners Want to maximize resources. Wish to integrate the region. Wish to maximize the operating revenues. Wish to integrate the society. Accessibility Throughou t C ommunity A transit system can be thought of as a horizontal elevator where travel from building to building is as simple as floor to floor service. Figure 6-1 illustrates h ow, with a hypothetical transit system, the facilities of a community become accessible. Minimal Right-of-Way Due t o its high carrying capacity, a transit system requires less land use relative to highway right-of-\ay. This opens up space for parks or gardens. If the system were elevated, open space underneath the spans could enhance overall pedestrian flow rather than creating linear barriers. Figure 6-2 c ompares the rights-of-way typically required by each system. Flexibility The site of the CPV will dictate a literal network of transit links and l oops. One o f the advantages of transit is the ability to phase it in as the land use develops. Thus the system adapts as future growth requires. Figure 6-3 shows a network of transit loops in a hypothetical setting. 102

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Figure 6-1 Commi.mi t y Accessib"l 1 lty 103

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6-2 Figure Rights-of-Way . on of Comparls / 104

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Figure 6-3 Transit Network 105

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Other Criteria Several other criteria exist that aid in a transit system's success. The following list-identifies additional criteria.2 Excellent service quality throughout the CPV. High quality regional trip service quality. A cost-effective system. Maximum' opportunities for cost sharing. Minimum travel time and transfers. Compatible with CPV urban design. Supportive of CPV land use/urban development goals. Compatible with adjacent neighborhoods. Minimum traffic impact. Enhance pedestrian Minimum disruption during construction. Politically acceptable solution. 6.2 SUPPLEMENTARY TECHNIQUES TO RESTRICT AUTO USE There are a number of techniques available which place limitations on vehicular traffic. Used in concert with an extensive transit system, an effective reduction of auto use would be guaranteed. The approaches can be grouped into four categories: physical, operational, regulatory and economic. 106

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Physical Measures These approaches modify the design, engineering and physical layout to control traffic movement and parking. Of all the types of techniques available, the physical measures most common. Street closing Street barricade Street width reduction Low design speeds Cul-de-sacs Reduced parking spaces Ring road/bypass Operational Measures Operational measures depend on the use of mechanical devices to control traffic movement. These measures are flexible by time of day or other time periods. This approach tends to control the movement of traffic once it is on the road and it less effective in discouraging the generation or destination of traffic. Signalization systems Ramp meters Turn restrictions Special use lanes/streets One-way streets 107

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Regulatory Measures These measures typically require more complex and on-going coordination among agencies and, therefore, are infrequently used. Area permits Loading/unloading restrictions Land use regulations Staggered work hours Regulation of auto ownership Parking restrictions Economic Measures Economic measures depend on pricing and people's market responses to control the generation, movement or placement of traffic. Such measures tend to be discriminatory for lower socioeconomic groups and, hence, have the lowest potential for public acceptance. Area license Tolls Inverted parking fee structure Fuel tax Congestion pricing A near complete list of strategies for reducing pollution emissions from auto sources is presented in Appendix C. The 121 strategies cover many more areas such as driver licensing, communications, vehicle registration and user charges. 108

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6.3 THESIS CONCLUSION It would be presumptuous to assert that future air quality should be the sole concern as development plans for the CPV continue. Other profit-driven interests must be accommodated to assure that development takes place and that most of the risk is shouldered by the developers. However, it is the responsibility of the City planners to serve in the best overall public interest: this is inherent to the profession. A planner should not, for example, consider a new arterial road thrdugh a neighborhood without determining the impacts or contacting the residents. Similarly, the Denver Planning Office should not be proceeding with the physical layout of the CPV transportation infrastructure without considering the air pollution impact. The design limitation necessary to maintain safe, clean air must be known now before process goes too far. This thesis has shown that a traditional transportation approach to the CPV development will degrade Denver's air quality by exceeding the EPA standard for carbon monoxide. recommended percent of development. a transit-oriented solution to the vehicle trip demand generated In response, it has serve seventy-five by full It was not lon-g ago when, at the start of the 1985-86 Better Air Campaign, the City administration strongly encouraged all residents to. "do their part" in improving Denver's air quality. It is time for the City to take a true stance in its commitment for clean air 109

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by incorporating alternative transportation approaches as the. Central Platte Valley is 110

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APPENDIX A PLATTE VALLEY DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE Members Stephanie Foote David J. Cole John Desmond Richard C. D. Fleming Lloyd Goff Tom Gougeon William Lamont, Jr. Richard McSpadden Philip Milstein Peter Neukirch Thomas J. Ragonetti Cathy Reynolds Jerry Wartgow Chair, Denver City Council P.L.A.N. Denver Planning Board The Denver Partnership P.V.L.A. Office of the Mayor Denver Planning Office Denver Union Terminal RR Co. Denver Board M.H.L.A. Water Street Joint Venture Denver City Council Auraria Higher Education Center Foundations and corporations which helped to fund this effort: -Gates Foundation -Mile High Land Associates Piton Foundation -Denver Foundation Terminal Railroad Company -Water Street Joint Venture agencies, and organizations which provided technical assistance: -Burlington Northern Railroad Corporation -Denver & Rio Grande Western Railroad Company -Centennial Engineers -Wright Water Engineers -RTKL A-1

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-LDR -THK SOM -Real Estate Research Corporation -Tanner VanDine, Urban Drainage and Flood Control District Colorado Department of Highways -Regional Transportation District -Denver Department of Public Works -Denver Revenue Department -Denver Office of Budget and Management The Denver Partnership -A.I.A. Urban Design Forum -P.L.A.N. P.V . L.A. -M.J.L.A. Certain individuals must also be given special recognition for their individual contributions in assisting the committee: -Doug Houston, consultant -Penelope Nelson, coordinator -Robert Karn and Eilene Byrne, The Denver Partnership -Jennifer Finch, Colorado Department of Highways -Jack Bruce; Ed Ellerbrock, John Stamm, DPW George Chelwick, M.H.L.A. -Jo Ann Soker, A.H.E.C. -Jerry Andolsek, P.V.L.A. -Jim Murray, Bettye Enders, Budget and Management Mike Davenport, P.L.A.N. Deanne Butterfield, Center for Public-Private Sector Cooperation; John Huyler, ACCORD -Denver Planning Office staff: Will Fleissig, Deputy Director, Downtown Planning Ronald A. Straka, Deputy Director, Urban Design Gordon Appell Mac Callison Phil Plienis Paul Sehnert Bob Werner David Williams Source: Central Platte Valley Concept Plan A-2

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APPENDIX B MODEL RESULTS B-1

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. , . r . . l) IC.BO'l \b •.t PROJECT :CPV -EXISTING PREPARED BY :KJH CLEARING HOUSE NUMBER : 0 PROJECTION YEAR : 1985 DATE :04/05/86 TYF ' E O F LJI'-.!IT SIZE I N G 1'1{-ii\IUF I 1\IG NOI'lWO F:I< WOF:K TOTAL TRIPS 264 5 1121 3766 TRIPS HOt i E L'IJOF: I < 0 HOI" i E-SHOP 0 H Ol"IE-OTHEF : 0 TOTAL 0 NONHOI'1E BASED HOME BASED Not 1 Hot 1 E B A SED El'1 ISS IONS CARBON M ONOXIDE CT/Y) = 100 HYDROCARB ONS CT/Y)= 1 5 NITR O GEN OXIDES C T/Y)= 2 FUEL CONSUMPTION = 56260 HOME BASED EMISSIONS C ARBON MONOXID E CT/ Y) = 0 H YDROCARBONS CT/Y)= 0 NITROGEN OXI DES
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. , . PROJECT PREPARED BY CLEARING HOUSE NUMBER PROJECTION YEAR DATE :CPV 10 YR. :t= 1286 = 171 = 31 FUEL CONSUMPTION = 898090 HOME BASED EMISSIONS CARBON MONOXIDE HYDROCARBONS NITROGEN OXIDES = 258 = 30 = 5 FUEL CONSUMPTION (GAL/YEAR>= 140635 ASSUMES TEMPERATURE = 3 5 SIZE 4451700 /SQFT 1353 /UNITS 438900 /SQFT 693 /UNITS VMT 55452 24900 8.0353 VMT . 2502 1926 4702 9130

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., .... PROJECT PREPARED BY CLEARING HOUSE NUMBER PROJECTION YEAR DATE :CPV 20 YR. : TYPE OF UNIT GENERAL OFFICE BUILDING APARTI'1ENT SHOPPING CENTER OVER 1250K HOTEL : 0 : 2000 :04/02/86 NONHOI'1E BASED TRIPS NONWORK WORK 100076 44940 TOTAL 145016 TRIPS HOME WORK 4516 HOME-SHOP 3477 HOME-OTHER 8488 TOTAL 16481 HOME BASED NONHOME BASED EMISSIONS CARBON MONOXIDE = 2611 HYDROCARBONS CT/Yl= 348 NITROGEN OXIDES (T/Yl= 62 FUEL CONSUMPTION = 1823416 HOME BASED EMISSIONS CARBON MONOXIDE HYDROCARBONS NITROGEN OXIDES = 10 FUEL CONSUMPTION = 285588 ASSUMES TEMPERATURE = 35 9038300 /SQFT 2747 /UNITS 891100 /SQFT 1407 /UNITS VMT 112585 50557 163143 VMT 5080 3911 9549 18541

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. ,. PROJECT PREPARED BY CLEARING HOUSE NUMBER PROJECTION YEAR DATE :CPV 30 YR. :I= 93 FUEL CONSUMPTION = 2721532 HOME BASED EMISSIONS CARBON MONOXIDE = 784 HYDROCARBONS CT/Y)= 92 NITROGEN OXIDES CT/Y)= 15 FUEL CONSUMPTION = 426262 A SSUMES TEM PER ATURE = 35 SIZE 1.;;.49E+07 / SOFT 4100 /UNITS 1330000 /SOFT 2100 /UNITS VMT 168040 75458 -------243498 VMT 7582 5838 14252 27673

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CALINE3 RUN : CPV-30 'j'f G::Jnai41cr) 1.0 SITE VARIABLES 2.0 3 . (> U= MlXH= ZO= 1 100 321 MIS M CM BRG= 180 ATIM= 60 VS= 0 DEGREES CLASS= MINUTES AMB= CM/S VD= LINK VARIABLES LINK COORDINATES * LINK * X1 Y1 X2 Y2 * -----*----------------------------------* 1 * 1000 475 255 480 2 * 1345 490 1095 165 3 * 1095 165 1085 25 4 * 1095 165 915 285 5 * 915 285 295 320 6 * 535 175 275 250 7 * 325 250 165 8 * 480 510 535 445 9 * 605 510 610 143 10 * 915 505 915 . 150 -----*----------------------------------* LINK DESCRIPTORS * LINK * TYPE VPH EF H W * -----*------------------------* 1 * AG 2006 79.82 0 12.6 2 * AG 1033 79.82 0 9.3 3 * AG 1033 79.82 0 9.3 4 * AG 6198 79.82 0 25.8 5 * AG 6198 79.82 0 25.8 6 * AG 4132 79.82 0 19.2 7 * AG 4132 79.82 0 19.2 8 * AG 1550 79.82 0 10.95 9 * AG 1033 79.82 0 9.3 1 0 *AG 1550 79.82 0 10.95 -----*------------------------* RECEPTOR COORDINATES < M) RECEPTOR * X y z * -----------*-------------------* 1 * 1195 320 1.3 2 * 895 445 1 6 26 0 PPM CM/S

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5 * 630 285 1 . 3 6 * 400 270 1.3 7 * 550 200 1.3 8 * 255 250 1.3 9 * 535 285 1.3 10 * 755 325 1.3 11 * 755 345 1.3 12 * 1095 190 1.3 13 * 550 400 f.3 -----------*-------------------* 1 MODEL RESULTS *CO/LINK *TOTAL RECEPTOR * 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 PPM ----------*---------------------------------------------------------1 * 0 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.5 2 * 0 0 0 .7 3.6 0 0 0 0 ..:...-.) 32.5 3 * 0 0 0 0 6 2.6 0 0 0 0 34.6 4 * 0 0 0 0 14.5 0 0 0 0 0 40.5 5 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 .5 0 26.5 6 * 0 0 0 0 0 4.8 0 0 0 0 30.8 7 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 8 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.5 0 0 0 37.5 9 * 0 0 0 0 0 1. 7 0 0 0 0 27.7 10 * 0 0 0 0 9.8 0 0 0 0 0 35.8 11 * 0 0 0 0 7.6 0 0 0 0 0 33.6 12 * 0 1.3 4.9 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 39.1 13 * 0 0 0 0 5.5 .6 0 0 0 0 32.1

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CALINE3 RUN : cPv of :fCJ 'jf Autc l)e.ma.f?d CAt+. 1) 1.0 SITE VARIABLES U= 1 M/S BRG= 180 DEGREES CLASS= 6 MIXH= 100 M ATIM= 60 MINUTES AMB= 26 PPM ZO= 321 CM VS= 0 CM/S VD= 0 CM/S 2.0 LINK VARIABLES LINK COORDINATES * LINt< * X1 Y1 X2 Y2 * -----*----------------------------------* 1 * 1000 475 255 480 2 .. 1345 490 1095 165 3 * 1095 165 1085 25 4 * 1095 165 915 285 5 * 915 285 295 320 6 * 535 175 275 250 7 * 325 450 250 165 8 * 480 510 535 445 9 * 605 510 610 145 10 * 915 505 915 150 -----*----------------------------------* LINK DESCRIPTORS * LINK * TYPE VPH EF H W * -----*------------------------* 1 * AG 1550 79.82 0 12.6 2 * AG 775 79.82 0 9.3 3 * AG 775 79.82 0 9.3 4 * AG 4649 79.82 0 2:5.8 5 .. AG 4649 79.82 0 25.8 6 * AG 3099 79.82 0 19.2 7 * AG 3099 79.82 0 19.2 8 * AG 1163 79.82 0 10.95 9 * AG 775 79.82 0 9.3 10 *AG 1163 79.82 0 10.95 _____ * ________________________ * 3.0 RECEPTOR COORDINATES < M> RECEPTOR * X y z * -----------*-------------------* 1 * 1195 320 1.3 2 * 895 445 1.3 3 * 400 395 1 ..,. . ..:;, 4 * 755. 305 1.3

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8 * 255 250 1.3 9 * 535 285 1.3 10 * 755 325 1.3 11 * 755 345 1.3 12 * ' 1095 190 1.3 13 * 550 400 1.3 ___________ * _____ ---* • 0 MODEL RESULTS *CO/LINK *TOTAL RECEPTOR * 1 2 . 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 * PPM ----------*--------------------------------------------------------1 * 0 1.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 27.9 2 * 0 0 0 .5 2.7 0 0 0 0 1.7 .. 30.9 3 .. 0 0 0 0 4.5 1. 9 0 0 0 0 .. 32.4 4 * 0 0 0 0 10.8 0 0 0 0 0 * 36.8 .. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .3 0 * 26.3 6 * • o . 0 0 0 0 3.6 0 0 0 0 * 29.6 7 .. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 26 8 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.600001 0 0 * • 34. 6 9 .. 0 0 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 * 27.2 10 * 0 0 0 0 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 * 33.3 11 * 0 0 0 0 5 . 7 0 0 0 0 0 * 31.7 12 * 0 .9 3.7 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 35.7 13 * 0 0 0 0 4.1 .4 0 0 0 0 * 30.5

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CALINE3 RUN : CPV at 'jf Aofo 'C:e,YfP.nd G+\t.;J.\ 1.0 SITE VARIABLES U= MIXH= ZO= 1 M/S 100 M 321 CM BRG= 180 ATIM= 60 VS= 0 DEGREES CLASS= MINUTES AMB= CM/S VD= 2.0 LINK VARIABLES 3.0 LINK COORDINATES .. LINK * X1 Y1 X2 Y2 * -----..------------------------------M 1 * 1000 475 255 480 2 * 1345 490 1095 165 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 • 7 * 8 * 9 • 10 * 1095 1095 915 535 325 480 605 915 165 165 285 175 450 510 510 505 1085 915 295 275 250 535 610 915 25 285 320 250 165 445 145 --*•-LINK DESCRIPTORS * LINK * TYPE VPH EF H W * -------------------------. 1 * AG 1033 79.82 0 9.3 2 * AG 517 79.82 0 7.65 3 • AG 517 79.82 0 7.65 4 * AG 3099 79.82 0 15.9 5 * AG 3099 79.82 0 15.9 6 * AG 2066 79.82 0 12.6 7 * AG 2066 79.82 0 12.6 8 * AG 775 79.82 0 8.479999 9 * AG 517 79.82 0 7.65 10 •AG 775 79.82 0 8.479999 ----------------------------RECEPTOR COORDINATES RECEPTOR * X y z * -----------*-------------------* 1 * 1195 2 * 320 1. 3 895 445 1. 3 .11.1"\f\ 1 -6 26 0 PPM CM/S

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...J...JV •vv .1. • ...;) 8 * 255 250 1.3 9 * 535 285 1.3 10 * 755 325 1.3 11 * 755 345 1.3 12 * 1095 190 1. 3 13 * 550 400 1.3 -----------*-------------------* ) MODEL RESULTS *CO/LINK *TOTAL RECEPTOR * 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 . 9 10 PPM ----------*--------------------------------------------------------1 * 0 1. 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.2 2 * 0 0 0 .3 1.7 0 0 0 0 1. 1 29. 1 3 * 0 0 0 0 2.8 1. 2 0 0 0 0 30 4 * 0 0 0 0 7.6 0 0 0 0 0 33.6 5 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .2 0 26.2 . 6 * 0 0 0 0 0_. 2.2 0 0 0 0 28.2 7 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 8 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 0 0 0 31.2 9 * 0 0 0 0 0 .8 0 0 0 0 26.8 10 * 0 0 0 0 4.6 0 0 0 0 0 30.6 11 * 0 0 0 0 3.6 0 0 0 0 0 29.6 12 * 0 .6 2.4 3.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 32.3 13 * 0 0 0 0 2.6 .2 0 0 0 0 28.8

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I CALINE3 I RUN :CPV of 3o'jr.'Alfto (Alt. 1.0 SITE VARIABLES 2.0 U= MIXH= ZO= 1 M/S 100 M 321 CM BRG= 180 ATIM= 60 VS= . 0 DEGREES CLASS= MINUTES AMB= CM/S ' VD= LINK VARIABLES LINK COORDINATES * LINK * X1 Y1 X2 Y2 ... 1 * 1000 475 480 2 * 1345 490 1095 165 3 * 1095 165 1085 25 4 .. 1095 165 I 915 285 5 .. 915 285 295 320 6 * 535 175 275 250 7 * 325 450 250 165 8 * 480 510 535 445 9 * ' 605 510 610 145 10 * ' 915 505 915 150 ___ .. . -----------------*" LINK DESCRIPTORS * LINK * TYPE VPH EF H W * _____ ,._ _______________________ * 1 * AG 517 79.82 0 9.3 2 *AG 258 79.82 0 7.65 3 * AG 258 79.82 0 7.65 4 * AG 1550 79.82 0 15.9 5 * AG 1550 79.82 0 15.9 6 * AG 1033 79.82 0 12.6 7 * AG 1033 79.82 0 12.6 a * AG 388 79.82 0 8.479999 9 * AG 258 79.82 0 7.65 10 *AG 388 79.82 0 8.479999 -----*------------------------* 3.0 RECEPTOR COORDINATES RECEPTOR * X Y Z * -----------*-------------------* 1 * 1195 320 1.3 2 * 895 445 1.3 3 .. 400 395 1.3 4 * • 755 305 1.3 6 26 0 PPM CM/S

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8 * 255 250 1.3 9 * 535 285 1.3 10 * 755 325 1.3 11 * 755 345 1.3 12 * 1095 190 1.3 13 * 550 400 1.3 -----------*-------------------* 0 MODEL RESULTS *CO/LINK *TOTAL RECEPTOR * 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 PPM ----------*---------------------------------------------------------1 * 0 .6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.6 2 * 0 0 0 . 1 .8 0 0 0 0 C' • ...J 27.4 3 * 0 0 0 0 1.4 .6 0 0 0 0 28 4 * 0 0 0 0 3.8 0 0 0 0 0 29.8 :5 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • 1 0 26.1 6 * 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 27 7 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 8 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.6 0 0 0 28.6 9 * 0 0 0 0 0 .4 0 0 0 0 26.4 10 * 0 0 0 0 2.3 0 0 0 0 0 28.3 11 * 0 0 0 0 1.8 0 0 0 0 0 27.8 12 * 0 .3 1. 2 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.1 13 * 0 0 0 0 1 . 3 • 1 0 0 0 0 27.4

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APPENDIX C STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING POLLUTION EMISSIONS FROM SURFACE TRANSPORTATION SOURCES BICYCLING 1. Construct off-street bicycle paths 2. Construct on-street bicycle lanes 3. Encourage employers to provide shower facilities 4. Improve bicycle access to places of employment 5. Improve maintenance of bicycle facilities 6. Provide secure bicycle storage lockers 7. Adopt regional registration program to discourage theft of bicycles CARPOOLING 1. Operate regional rideshare matching service 2. Expand employer outreach activity 3. Require employer-based rideshare coordinators 4. Promote the use of park-and-pool lots (See related strategies listed under "HOV Priority Treatments") COMMUNICATIONS 1. Encourage telecommunication as a substitute for travel --reducing trips for social calls, shopping, meetings, etc. 2. Encourage telecommunication to enable people to work at home 3. Encourage home goods delivery 4. Broadcast travelers' advisories on days when severe pollution concentrations are expected 5. Install variable-message signs to provide advance warning of traffic problems 6. Use public education campaign to promote greater efficiency in trip-making and vehicle use (see "Vehicle Use") DRIVER LICENSING 1. Raise minimum age to 19 years HOV PRIORITY TREATMENTS 1. Provide exclusive HOV lanes/roadways in key corridors (peak or all-day) 2. Provide ramp-meter bypass lanes for HOV use 3. Provide signal pre-emption for buses (See related strategies listed under "Parking Management") C-1

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LAND USE 1. Encourage high-density development in close proximity to transit lines 2. Prohibit drive-in/drive-. up window facilities to discourage unnecessary vehicle idling 3. Create limited access zones 4. Encourage planned urban developments (the "urban village" concept) 5. Institute pollution-based regional development planning 6. Institute emission allocation zoning policies 7. Institute emission density zoning policies 8. Institute nondegradation zoning policies 9. Institute Environmental Impace Statement (EIS) requirements for new developments 10. Relax zoning ordinances to permit more home-oriented offices or businesses and/or permit light industry in residential areas 11. Institute growth control policies LAW ENFORCEMENT More strictly enforced traffic laws More strictly enforced parking regulations 3. Substantially increased fines for traffic/parking offenses 4. Enforce antitampering laws regarding emission control equipment 5 . Prohibit on-the-road driver education during peak periods 6. Intensify enforcement of laws against improper fuel use (leaded gas in unleaded-only vehicles) PARKING MANAGEMENT 1. Eliminate on-street parking 2. Limit parking space construction in new developments 3 . Ration parking spaces in the CBD 4 . Provide preferred (eg, covered) spaces for carpools/HOVs 5 . Increase parking costs in areas served by transit 6. Increase parking costs for single-occupant vehicles 7. Provide fringe parking facilities in conjunction with shuttle-style transit service 8. Expand existing park-and-ride lots and/or establish new ones in conjunction with express transit service 9. Establish lots for park-and -pool use 10. Reduce the number of parking spaces in downtown areas 11. Institute residential parking-sticker program 12. Require employers to charge employee fees PEDESTRIAN TRAVEL 1. Provide sidewalks (along streets) where none presently exist 2. Improve pedestrian access to buildings 3. Provide pedestrian access to buildings 4. Improve pedestrian overpasses where safety dictates 5. Promote walking as a substitute for short-distance auto trips C-2

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ROAD CONSTRUCTION 1. Contruct urban area bypass routes 2. Construct roadways needed to eliminate system bottlenecks 3. Restrict construction of. roadways 4. Construct new freeways to ease arterial congestion 5. Restrict traffic-disrupting utility and raodway maintenance to nighttime/off-peak hours TRAFFIC FLOW IMPROVEMENTS 1. Redesignate streets as one-way couplets 2. Implement reversible lanes 3. Coordinate traffice signals for better progression 4. Implement/expand freeway ramp metering 5. Undertake minor widening to improve arterial capacity 6. Provide intersection channelization for turning lanes 7. Eliminate capacity bottlenecks and jogs at intersections 8. Eliminate unnecessary traffic signals 9. Improve traffic surveillance/incident response techniques 10. Eliminate four-way stop signs (replace with "yield" operations) 11. Switch signals to blinking mode at night where appropriate 12. Prohibit left turns in congested traffic flow 13. Adjust speed limits to optimize traffic flow 14. Ease restrictions. against "right turn on red" 15. Use stronger access control to minimize friction on arterials 16. Use "flyovers" (grade separations) to improve problem intersections TRANSIT 1. Increase service frequency to reduce waiting time 2. Modify existing bus routes 3. Provide additional bus routes 4. Provide additional bus runs to reduce the incidence of standees 5. Expand service area 6. Reduce fares in general 7. Structure fares to promote off-peak transit use 8. Promote employer incentives for transit use 9. Improve transit system security 10. Optimize bus stop locations 11. Improve schedule reliability 12. Improve availability of transit route and schedule information 13. Improve demand-responsive service in selected areas 14. Permit taxicab sharing mode) in low-density areas 15. Improve lighting and amenities at bus stops/stations 16. Provide express service to park-and-ride lots 17. Provide shuttle service to CBD fringe parking lots 18. Provide express service between airport and CBD 19. Provide free transit service on smog-alert days 20. Offer periodic transit "sales" (temporary fare reduction) to attract new riders 21. Construct busway, light rail or heavy rail system 22. Establish mall in downtown area (See related strategies listed under "HOV Priority Treatments") C-3

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USER CHARGES 1. Charge tolls on bridges and freeways during peak periods 2. Institute electronic road use monitoring/pricing system VANPOOLING 1. Encourage vanpool formation via the Regional Rideshare Program 2. Provide tax incentives to encourage employer operation of vanpools VEHICLE REGISTRATION 1. Limit second-vehicle registration 2. Increase registration tax on older cars 3. Base registration fee on tailpipe emission level 4. Require auto dealers to provide guaranteed maintenance of emissions control equipment VEHICLE USE 1. Designate selected downtown areas or streets as Auto-Restricted Zones (ARZ) with no autos permitted to enter 2. Institute voluntary "no-drive" program for the high pollUtion season 3. Institute mandatory "no-drive" program for predicted high pollution days 4. Educate public to discourage unnecessary vehicle idling 5. Require transit and truck fleet operators to adopt stricter anti-idling rules 6. Ban or restrict truck traffic on selected roadways 7. Restrict on-street loading activities during peak periods 8. Educate public to reduce number of extreme could starts 9. Discourage commuter use of "company" cars (except HOVs) 10. Eliminate "cruising" by taxi cabs and by adolescents 11. Discourage delivery operations during peak travel periods WORK SCHEDULE CHANGES 1. Encourage the use of staggered work hours 2 . Encourage the use of flex time 3. Encourage the use of compressed (eg, four day) work weeks 4. Encourage public institutions (courts, libraries, etc.) as well as private businesses to open later in the morning and close later at night in order to lessen peak hour traffic Source: Denver Regional Council of Governments C-4

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Chapter One APPENDIX D CHAPTER ENDNOTES 1steve Ryder, "An Assessment of Water Institutions in Colorado" (November 1984), p. 49. 2 Ryder, p. SO. Chapter Two 1 Howard E. Hesketh, Understanding and Controlling Air Pollution Ann Arbor, 1972), p.7. 2Eileen Brennan, Source Book on Air Pollution Topics (1984), p. 64. 3Irving Sloan, Environment and the Law (New York: Oceana, 1972), p. 15. 4 S 1 o an , p • 1 5 • 5Hesketh, p. 31. 6Ibid., p. 14. 7Ibid., p. 20. 8 Stern, p. 8. 9Hesketh, p. 12. 10Greiner Engineering Sciences, Highway Air Quality (U.S. Department of Transportation), p. 2. 11stern, p. 53. 12Joseph N. Kane, Famous First Facts (New York; H.W. Wilson, 1964)' p. 42. 13 Kane, p. 42. D-1

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14R. Shep. Melnick, Regulation and the Courts (DC: Brookings, 1983), p. 8. 15Melnick, p. 27. 16Erica Dolgin, Federal Environment Law (Minnesota: West, 1974), p. 1318. 17 D 1 . 1324 o g1n, p. . Chapter Three 1 Colorado Air Quality Control Commission, Report to the Public -1985, p. 3. 2Colorado Air Quality Control Commission, Colorado Air Quality Data Report (1984), p. 17. 3rbid., p. 17. 4 Hesketh, p. 119. 5rbid., p. 121. 6c . . omm1ss1on (1985), p. 3. 7Ibid., p. 123 . p. 3. 9Ibid., p. 4. 10Ibid., p. 4. 11 Denver Regional Council of Governments, Regional Growth and Development Plan (1981). 12 Denver Regional Council of Governments, Mobility '85 (1985), p . 9. 13Ibid., p.9. 14DRCOG (1981), p. 27. 15DRCOG (1985), p. 9. D-2

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16Ibid., p.9. 17Ibid., p.5. 18Ibid., p.5. 19conversation with Joseph Palomba, Jr., Technical Secretary, Colorado Air QUality Control Commission, 7 March 1986. ZODRCOG (1985), p. 8. 21Ibid., p.6. 22Ibid., p.7. 23Ibid., p. 7. Chapter Four 1City of Denver, Planning Office Memo to Denver City Council, n.d. 2 Platte Valley Development Committee, The Report and Recommended Plan for the Central Platte Valley Development (1985), p. 47. 3conversation with Steve Arnold, Meteorologist, Colorado Department of Health, March 1986. Chapter Six 1 Automated Transportation Systems, Inc., Modern Technology Applied to Transportation (n.d.), p. 10. 2Ibid., p. 15. D-3

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APPENDIX E BIBLIOGRAPHY Automated Transportation Sytems, Inc. Modern Technology Applied to Transportations. n.d. Brennan, Eileen G., and John J. McGovern, eds. Source Book on Air Pollution Topics. Air Pollution Control Association, 1984. California Air Resources Board. AQAT -Air Quality Analysis Tools. March 1983. Clawson, Marion and Peter Hall. Plannins and Urban Growth. Baltimore, Maryland, John Hopkins Un1versity Press, 1973. Colorado Air Quality Control Commission. Report to the Public -1984. Colorado Department of Health, October 1984. Colorado Air Quality Control Commission. Report to the Public -1985. Colorado Department of Health, October 1985. Colorado Division of Highways. Joint Re ional Plannin Continuing Air Quality Review race ure. Marc for Joint Regional Planning Program. Croke, Kevin G. Environmental Regulations and Urban Traffic. Washington, DC, National Technical Information Service, 1974. Denver City Council Task Force on Clean Air. Preliminary Draft Report to the City Council. Denver Regional Council of Governments. Mobility '85. 1985. Denver Regional Council of Governments. Regional Growth and Development Plan for the Denver Region. January 1981. Denver Regional Council of Governments. What Local Governments Can Do to Help Clean the Air. January 19 Dolgin, Erica L. and Thomas G. P. Guilbert. Federal Environmental Law. Minnesota, West, 1974. Environmental Protection Agency. Denver Air Pollution Study -1973: of a s;mposium. Ed. Philip A. Russell, February 1977, E A-600/9-7-ool, Volume II. Flaming, K. H., and M. L. Stember. Public Opinions About .Improving Air Quality. Spring 1982, prepared for Environmental Protection Agency. E-1

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GCA/Technology Division. Development of an Example 10-Year Air ualit Maintenance Plan for Denver A MSA: Second Draft Report. uly , prepare or Env1ronmental rotect1on Agency, Contract No. 68-02-1376. Greiner Engineering Sciences, Inc. Fundamentals of Air Quality. Federal Highway Administration, Implementation Package No. 76-5. Hesketh, Howard E. and Controlling Air Pollution. Michigan, Ann Arbor Science ublishers, Inc., 1972. Magill, Paul R., Francis R. Helden, Charles Ackley. Air Pollution Handbook. New York, McGraw-Hill, 1956. Melnick, R. Shep. Regulation and the Courts. Washington, DC, The Brookings Institution, 1983. Mumford, Lewis. The City in History. Platte Valley Development Committee. The Report and Recommended Plan for the Central Platte Valley Development. June 1985. Sloan, Irving J. Environment and the Law. New York, Oceana Publications, 1972. Stern, Arthur C., Henry C. Wohlers, Richard W. Boubel, William P. Lowry. Fundamentals of Air Pollution. New .York, Academic Press, 1973. U.S. Department of Transportation. Auto Restricted Zones -Background and Feasibility. Report No. UMTA-VA-06-0042-78-1, December 1977. White, Lawrence J. The Regulation of Air Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles. Washington, DC, American Enterprise Institute, 1982. E-2