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An Examination of the humanitarian response to global climate change induced displacement

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Title:
An Examination of the humanitarian response to global climate change induced displacement
Creator:
Ludlam, Erin Catherine
Place of Publication:
Denver, CO
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University of Colorado Denver
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Language:
English

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Degree:
Master's ( Master of arts)
Degree Grantor:
University of Colorado Denver
Degree Divisions:
Department of Political Science, UC Denver
Degree Disciplines:
Political science
Committee Chair:
McGuffey, Lucy
Committee Members:
Robinson, Tony

Notes

Abstract:
There is consensus among ninety seven percent of scientists that global climate change is the result of anthropogenic activities. The consequences of such global climate change are complex and non-discriminatory. One significant effect of global climate change is human migration. The following examines the humanitarian response to global climate change induced displacement in five chapters. First, to understand the effects of global climate change it is important to understand the science behind global climate. The second chapter examines adaptation efforts of communities to stave off the consequences of global climate change. Ultimately, migration is a fundamental form of adaptation but success relies on complex variables such as fiscal support. Third, global governance is looked at, specifically protection gaps in soft laws as the 1951 Refugee Convention and the Guiding Principles for Internal Displacement regarding environmental migrants. The adoption of internationally binding governance will be necessary to protect those populations most vulnerable, unfortunately though, this is not on the policy-making horizon. Fourth, the evolution of disaster management to disaster risk management is reviewed. Disaster risk management proves to be the most promising of the humanitarian responses to climate change and displacement but is in need of stronger state leadership and funding. In conclusion, although global climate change induced displacement is an issue that is finally receiving improved international attention, until state led responsibility is fully adopted and resources are evenly distributed through binding international governance then the most vulnerable populations will continue to struggle and the humanitarian response will fall short. The global climate change science is clear that without swift risk preparation and action, the next decades could prove deadly.

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University of Colorado Denver
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Auraria Library
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Copyright Erin Catherine Ludlam. Permission granted to University of Colorado Denver to digitize and display this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.

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Full Text
AN EXAMINATION OF THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE INDUCED DISPLACEMENT
by
ERIN CATHERINE LUDLAM B.A., William Smith College, 1997
A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment Of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Political Science Program
2016


©2016
ERIN CATHERINE LUDLAM
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED


This thesis for the Master of Arts degree by Erin Catherine Ludlam has been approved for the Political Science Department by
Lucy McGuffey, Chair Tony Robinson
Date: May 11, 2016


Ludlam, Erin Catherine (M.A., Political Science)
An Examination of the Humanitarian Response to Global Climate Change Induced Displacement
Thesis directed by Associate Professor Lucy McGuffey
ABSTRACT
There is consensus among ninety seven percent of scientists that global climate change is the result of anthropogenic activities. The consequences of such global climate change are complex and non-discriminatory. One significant effect of global climate change is human migration. The following examines the humanitarian response to global climate change induced displacement in five chapters. First, to understand the effects of global climate change it is important to understand the science behind global climate. The second chapter examines adaptation efforts of communities to stave off the consequences of global climate change. Ultimately, migration is a fundamental form of adaptation but success relies on complex variables such as fiscal support. Third, global governance is looked at, specifically protection gaps in soft laws as the 1951 Refugee Convention and the Guiding Principles for Internal Displacement regarding environmental migrants. The adoption of internationally binding governance will be necessary to protect those populations most vulnerable, unfortunately though, this is not on the policy-making horizon. Fourth, the evolution of disaster management to disaster risk management is reviewed. Disaster risk management proves to be the most promising of the humanitarian responses to climate change and displacement but is in need of stronger state leadership and funding. In conclusion, although global climate change induced displacement is an issue that is finally
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receiving improved international attention, until state led responsibility is fully adopted and resources are evenly distributed through binding international governance then the most vulnerable populations will continue to struggle and the humanitarian response will fall short. The global climate change science is clear that without swift risk preparation and action, the next decades could prove deadly.
The form and content of this abstract are approved. I recommend its publication.
Approved: Lucy McGuffey
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER
I. INTRODUCTION.................................1
II. UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE..........4
III. ADAPTATION...................................8
IV. GOVERNANCE..................................15
V. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT....................27
VI. CONCLUSION..................................45
REFERENCES............................................47
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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
The beaches where I used to fish are underwater.
What is happening here is a mere preview of the havoc that awaits.
If my country goes, others will surely follow.
Marshall Island President Christopher Loeak address to The UN Climate Change Conference, NY (September 2014)
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to anthropogenic activities (Editor, NASA). In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position (Editor, NASA). This same scientific community predicts that the effects of global climate change will be considerable and intensify over time.
Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which is considered to be the most credible international body devoted to global climate change science, “Among the most significant of all potential impacts of climate change are the possible effects on human settlement” (IPCC WGII 1990, 183). A maximalist school of thought expects hundreds of millions of people, even up to a billion, to be displaced as a consequence of climate change by 2050 (Kalin 2012, 81). By contrast, a minimalist approach stresses that displacement is triggered by complex and multiple causes, among which climate change is just one, and predicts that the number of cases where displacement can be directly linked to the effects of climate change will be few (Kalin 2012, 81). As a result of this wide range of estimates, many institutes and organizations are calling for improved research of the issue and the development of new precautionary policy
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instalments to better protect those seen as displaced by environmental change. The following will be a critical assessment of humanitarian efforts to respond to climate displacement in three parts.
First, after an overview of the science of global climate change, I will examine the resilience of populations and communities to adapt to current and future climate fluctuations. In regards to a humanitarian response, I will argue that the most efficient adaptation strategies hinge on resources, largely financial, that are simply not available to often the most problematic yet, least developed countries. As a result, adaptation strategies, although selectively effective, are not a cohesive humanitarian response to respond to climate displacement.
Second, I will present an overview of the international legal challenges regarding the definition of environmental migration. This will primarily focus on the debate surrounding a possible amendment to the 1951 Refugee Convention and the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Even without a clear definition of environmental migrants, there is substantial international conventions addressing the topic, therefore this is not the weakest link in the humanitarian response.
Finally, I propose that the most promising area of humanitarian response lays in climactic disaster risk management. Using the Nansen Initiative of 2012,1 will argue that environmental disaster induced displacement can be more efficiently and effectively prepared for through awareness and migration planning. The primary limitation to successful disaster risk management and lives saved remains lack of state led lack of responsibility and international funding. However, reliance on independent agencies, as well as the United Nations creates both an imperfect solution and an opportunity for improvement.
Although the issue of global climate change induced displacement has seen an increase in attention from international conferences, without binding international governance and funding,


humanitarian resources will not be distributed evenly and the most vulnerable populations will continue to languish. In conclusion, I propose a leadership structure modeled off the state led Nansen Initiative which would regionalize climatic disaster risk migration management, as well as slow-onset climate change risk migration management. A collaborative state led initiative, funded through binding international agreements would lend legitimacy and credibility to the issue of climate change and migration. Structuring the responsibility among a global coalition outside the crowded UN humanitarian system would ideally keep the issue global climate change induced migration front and center and address needs of the most exposed populations more sufficiently. This is imperative in shaping risk management policies, especially given the time sensitive realities of global climate change. The world must optimize the humanitarian response and close protection gaps now to save vulnerable communities because according to climate change science, time is running thin.
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CHAPTER II
UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
To understand the human implications of global climate change, it is important to first understand the science of global climate change. The leading international climate change scientific body is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).1 Established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the IPCC is tasked with providing the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts (Editor, IPCC Organization). The IPCC does not conduct any research, but rather reviews and assesses the most recent scientific or technical information produced worldwide which is relevant to the understanding of climate change (Editor, IPCC Organization). Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis (Editor, IPCC Organization). As an intergovernmental body, the IPCC is open to all member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO, currently resulting in the membership of 195 countries (Editor, IPCC Organization).
The information gathered by the IPCC is published incrementally in assessment reports. These assessment reports are the result of lengthy sessions or workshops where over the course of years, Working Groups (WG) inventory and evaluate data under strict but transparent procedural guidelines. Each WG or Task Force is assigned a specific position within the climate change conversation, whether it is of the physical science of the climate system or the impact of socioeconomic vulnerabilities or options to mitigate climate change through prevention (Editor, IPCC
1 As a result of the extensive, inclusive peer review process at the IPCC and the representation of ranging scientific opinions, the agency is regarded as credible and reliable. For this reason, this paper uses the IPCC publications as its primary climate change science resource, (http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/ipcc-backgrounder.html#.Vxe4Aqt7G7Y)
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Working Groups/Task Force). Since 1990, when the IPCC First Assessment Report was published, there have been four additional assessment reports released in 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2014.
The IPCC defines terms for understanding its assessment reports. Accordingly,
Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes (WGII2014, 5).
The significance of climate change as defined previously cannot be understated. Especially noted is that this change appears to persist over an extended period of time and can be attributed to a combination of processes. As well, the definition puts forth that human activity has attributed to altering the composition of the global atmosphere.
As well as defining key terms, the IPCC uses a scale of certainty to understand assessment findings. The degree of certainty is based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (for instance: data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement (WGII 2014, 6). The summary terms to describe evidence are: limited, medium, or robust; and agreement: low, medium, or high (WGII 2014, 6). Furthermore, The IPCC uses levels of confidence in the validity of a finding which synthesizes the evaluation of evidence and agreement as: very low, low, medium, high and very high (WGII 2014, 6). The IPCC assessment findings also define the likelihood or probability of outcomes occurring in the future as: virtually certain, extremely likely, very likely, likely, more likely than not, about likely as not, unlikely, very unlikely,
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extremely unlikely or exceptionally unlikely (WGII2014, 6). The structure of this agreement spectrum keeps the scientific findings of each WG or Task Force clear. With this clarity in science, policymakers can better target issues of concern.
Using large amounts of comprehensive data and the most sophisticated analyses of this data, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report describes the progress in understanding the human and natural drivers of climate change (WGI2007, 2). The findings submit that global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning thousands of years (WGI 2007, 2). The findings put forth that the global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture (WGI 2007, 2). As a result of this understanding, the IPCC assessment concludes with very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of unprecedented climate warming (WGI 2007, 3).
With the warming of the climate system comes observed impacts and vulnerabilities on the natural and human order on all continents and across the oceans (WGII 2014, 4). In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality {medium confidence) (WGII 2014, 4). Glaciers continue to shrink almost worldwide due to climate change {high confidence), affecting runoff and water resources downstream {medium confidence), as well as causing a thaw in high-latitude and high-altitude regions {high confidence) (WGII 2014, 4).
As well, data appear to show that negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts {high confidence) (WGII 2014, 4). Observed impacts relate mainly to production aspects of food security rather than access or other components of food
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security (WGII2014, 5-6).
Also, impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and human systems to current climate variability (very high confidence) (WGII 2014, 6). The result of such climate-related episodes often is disruption of food production and water supply, or damage to infrastructure and settlements (WGII 2014, 6).
These stressors can exacerbate already vulnerable populations burdened by non-climatic factors, such as socio-economic inequalities and uneven development processes (WGII 2014, 6). These differences shape differential risks from climate change (very high confidence) (WGII 2014,
6). Populations which are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally or otherwise marginalized are especially susceptible to poor adaptation or mitigation responses {medium evidence, high agreement) (WGII 2014, 6).
The science of global climate change is imperative to the prediction of climactic shifts and events. By understanding the scientific patterns of global climate change, resources can be allocated to assist affected communities. The humanitarian response to global climate change migration begins with the science.
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CHAPTER III
ADAPTATION
One of the most important mitigation management strategies to global climate change migration is the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt. The IPCC defines adaptation as: “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (WGII 2007). Furthermore, classifications of adaptation strategies can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned (WGII 2007). Adaptation assessment is the practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change and evaluating them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs, effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility (WGII 2007). The following will examine these categories of adaptation and the resulting impact on migration.
The IPCC define anticipatory adaptation as: “Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed” (WGII 2007). This is also referred to as proactive adaptation (WGII 2007). An example of this is population resettlement. Jeremy S. Pal and Elfatih A.B. Eltahir’s h'uture temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability confronts the reality that regional population resettlement may be the only option for that population’s survival.
The authors state that like all living species, human survival is partially a function of the environmental temperature (2015, 1). Using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model stimulations, Pal and Eltahir project that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity) of the Arabian Gulf is likely to approach and exceed the critical threshold of survivability for a fit human by the close of the century (2015, 1). Largely, this Gulf region has locations which are relatively low areas near bodies of water. As a result, this wet-bulb temperature
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threatens the human body with heat stroke and extreme sun exposure (2015, 1). In addition, as these temperatures approach extremes, much machinery designed for current climate may malfunction or operate properly (2015, 1). The authors hypothesize that it may be feasible to adapt indoor activities using innovations with air conditioners however, the increased demand for electricity will only be met only by wealthier regions (2015, 3). Unfortunately for those communities with limited financial resources, populations will suffer both a decline on indoor and outdoor activities which will most likely lead to premature deaths of the weakest, namely children and the elderly (2015, 3). All in all, if true, according to the Population Reference Bureau, this could affect up to 200 million people (Editor 2016).
The IPCC defines planned adaptation as: “Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state” (WGII2007). An example of this proactive humanitarian response to climate change is Denmark’s Cloudburst Management Plan for Copenhagen which was drafted in an effort to mitigate future possible displacement.
In July 2011, Copenhagen experienced a sudden and violent rainstorm (cloudburst) which caused massive flooding. More than six inches of rain fell in less than three hours flooding cellars, streets and key roads (Gerdes 2012). According to Jan Rasmussen, with the City of Copenhagen’s Parks and Nature Department, the deluge cause 6 billion Danish kroner (DKK),($1.04 billion) in damage (Gerdes 2012). The estimates mark approximate that 61% of Copenhagen apartment dwellers experienced water damage from the floods (Gerdes 2012). Absent action, city officials estimate that damage to buildings and infrastructure and lost earnings from storm surges and floods will total 15 to 20 billion DKK ($2.6 billion to $3.47 billion) over the next 100 years (Gerdes 2012). Recognizing that Copenhagen is on the frontline of climate change and likely will experience an
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increase in future rainfall and rising sea levels, the council prepared a Cloudburst Management Plan in 2012.
The mitigation plan is a collaboration between Koben- havns Energi (Copenhagen Energy), the City of Frederiksberg, and Frederiksberg Forsyning (Frederiksberg utility company) and emphasizes a three tiered adaptation approach (The City of Copenhagen 2012, 5). The first tier is to drain the stormwater out to sea while a minor portion can be channeled to freshwater basins (2012, 8). Second, the plan calls for the construction of canals or tunnels to store surface runoff in buffer areas during intensive downpours (2012, 8). Finally, and perhaps most ambitiously, the city intends to increase the blue and green infrastructure. This would include adapting measures for pluvial flooding that can be incorporated into wider local master plans and urban development projects (2012, 8). A blue-green infrastructure initiative might include reopening streams, and using high curbstones to lead the pluvial floodwater into these (2012, 8). dtimately, the Cloudburst Management Plan points to a solution that will protect Copenhagen and its residents by combining measures that will make the city greener and bluer by draining stormwater at ground level with tunnels in those areas of the city where ground level drainage is not possible and could therefore threaten livelihoods (2012, 8).
Autonomous adaptation, according to the IPCC, is defined as: “Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems, also referred to as spontaneous adaptation” (WGII2007). One such form of autonomous adaptation is migration.
Building on these classifications, Walter Kalin’s Conceptualizing Climate-Induced Displacement provides a more thorough understanding of migration due to climate change and adaptation strategies. Specifically, Kalin discusses scenarios of slow-onset environmental
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degradation and movement as an adaptive strategy. Simply put, he says that populations will be prompted to migrate in an effort to find better prospects when, as a result of climate change stressors, there is a general deterioration of conditions of life and economic opportunities (Kalin 2012, 89). Kalin discredits a maximalist school of thought which expects hundreds of millions of people to be displaced as a consequence of climate change (Kalin 2012, 81). By contrast, he says, a more realistic minimalist approach emphasizes that displacement is triggered by complex and multiple causes, among which climate change is just one and predicts that the number of cases where migration is directly linked to the effects of climate change will be few (Kalin 2012, 81).
According to Kalin, populations from small island states are some of the most vulnerable.
The submersion and destruction of livelihoods from soil and groundwater salinization will be gradual forcing individuals or households to adopt coping strategies which may include migration (Kalin 2012, 90). Moving short distances, such as to other islands belonging to the same country in search of better conditions may be seen as a voluntary act (Kalin 2012, 90). However, as areas of origin become uninhabitable or territories become inadequate to accommodate whole populations, forced displacement is the only adaptive strategy because these scenarios would render return impossible (Kalin 2012, 90-91).
Jon Barnett and Michael Webber’s Migration as Adaptation: Opportunities and Limits agrees with Walter Kalin in regards to the complexity of global climate change and the various factors which will impact populations. The authors detail both patterns of movement, as well as barriers to environmental migration.
The authors emphasize that global climate change is likely to exacerbate existing migration patterns, rather than create entirely new ones (Barnett & Webber 2012, 42). Therefore, they argue, a crude guide to the geography of future movements is found within present movements (Barnett &
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Webber 2012, 42). When reviewing these patterns of mobility, the authors identified four types of migration which may be affected by climate change. Overall, evidence shows that movements are likely to be over short distances and most likely internal (Barnett & Webber 2012, 43).
The first type of migration which may be affected by climate change is international and internal labor migrants. Households at risk of climate change may deliberately and carefully pursue labor migration as an adaptation strategy as communities are pushed into deeper poverty (Barnett & Webber, 42). These labor migrants are typically young, single people chosen by the household to move for financial earnings (Barnett & Warner, 42). Thus, labor migrants are generally seen to respond to more to ‘puli’ factors than to ‘push’ factors (Barnett & Warner, 42). In this respect, they are generally of lesser humanitarian concern (Barnett & Webber, 42). However, these migrants do require an environment that enables them to maximize the contributions they can make to the places they come from, as well as the places to which they have moved (Barnett & Warner, 42). The authors submit that labor migration offers the best potential for harnessing the power of migration to promote adaptation to climate change (Barnett & Warner, 42).
Second, Barnett and Warner look to international and internal displacement. Such displacement, they write, in response to rapid onset natural disasters will be exacerbated by climate change (43). Evidence suggests that these movements are likely to be over shorter distances and those displaced are likely to wish to return (43). Governments and the international community may need to increase their planning for disasters, as well as their capacity to support humanitarian needs and assist in the repatriation of displaced people (43).
Third, the authors address international and internal permanent migrants. These migrants are a consequence of stresses exacerbated by incremental changes and slow onset disasters, such as drought (Barnett & Warner, 43). Migrants of this kind can be distinguished in their decision to
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move as more of a ‘push’ factors than pull factors (Barnett & Warner, 43). Also, these migrants are more likely to be full families instead of individuals (Barnett & Warner, 43). This population will pose a challenge to the humanitarian community because the response will require long-term attention and commitment.
Finally, Barnett and Warner speak to resettlement. In an effort to reduce climate change exposure, the relocation of entire communities has been proposed (43). Yet, as examined earlier, resettlement may be the only option for human survival. The authors stress that groups which are relocated face the greatest risk to their livelihoods and human rights and assisting them will challenge the humanitarian community (43).
Furthermore, Barnett and Webber put forth three barriers to migration. Financial barriers include the costs of transport, housing on arrival and living expenses incurred while developing new income streams (Barnett & Webber 2012, 41). Thus the poorest populations do not migrate and if they do, it is usually only short, internal distances (Barnett & Webber 2012, 41). As well, there are informational barriers to migration which include knowledge of where to go, how to get there, and ways to make a life upon arrival (Barnett & Webber 2012, 41). Finally, there can be tremendous legal barriers to migration. This includes state conditions of entry and residence (Barnett & Webber 2012, 41). This barrier complicates migration across international borders (Barnett & Webber 2012, 42).
Unfortunately, those people most exposed to environmental stressors, particularly farmers, herders, pastoralists, fishermen who rely on natural resources and the weather for their livelihoods may be the least able to adapt or the least able to move, if at all (Warner & Afifi 2014, 300). In the decades ahead, these potentially ‘limited mobility’ populations could face deteriorating habitability of their traditional homelands with few options for moving to more favorable places in safety and
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dignity (Warner & Afifi 2014, 300). The implications of climate change to influence a wider scope of issues affects human decisions regarding whether to leave, where to go, when to leave and will it be possible to return (Warner & Afifi 2014, 300).
Yet, Barnett and Webber remind readers that labor migrants can be a benefit for the receiving country (Barnett & Webber, 45). Labor migrants are generally hard-working and seeking to maximize incomes to finance a better life for themselves and their families (Barnett & Webber, 45). These migrants send money home which can in turn help other migrants overcome barriers to movement and settlement (Barnett & Webber, 45). The authors note that national and international assistance serves migrants’ needs best when it supports migrants to maximize their opportunities and put forth this could apply to those migrating due to climate change (Barnett & Webber, 45). However, the success of social systems to respond to climate change migrants will heavily rely on financial resources, governance (effectiveness and legitimacy) (Barnett & Webber, 43).
Adaptation strategies for communities facing climate change are an essential factor in examining the humanitarian response to environmental migration. Whether it is anticipatory adaptation and relocation as expected within this century in the Middle East or planned adaptation as with the cloudburst mitigation project in Copenhagen, or autonomous migration as areas of origin become uninhabitable due to climate stressors, these adjustments lay the foundation for ultimate outcomes. Barnett and Webber show that the migration will most likely follow existing patterns and may even prove beneficial for countries receiving labor migrants. Most importantly is to ensure that humanitarian resources are collective and cohesive. This will prove difficult across varied economies and governments.
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CHAPTER IV
GOVERNANCE
Perhaps the most glaring gap in terms of climate change migration is the absence of an international legal definition of such a population, although this is not for a lack of conversation or spirited debate. The expression ‘environmental or climate refugee’ has not been established by international law and no legal texts use such terms (Cournil 2011, 360). As a result, this migrant population faces legal ambiguity (Cournil 2011, 360). This legal absence creates gaps in protections regarding state obligations and responsibilities to these vulnerable communities. There have been numerous international, non-binding conventions addressing the issue of climate change induced migration. Yet, without a legal definition for these migrants, the humanitarian response designed to promote human welfare within these disparities are constrained. Proposed resolutions to this legal dilemma are varied.
Some scholars have suggested amending the 1951 Refugee Convention to include this migrant population. Others have argued the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement is sturdy enough to protect the most vulnerable since environmental migrants largely move within their own country. The following will explore the state of this debate and the most promising options for securing human rights for environmental migrants.
Roger Zetter’s Protecting People Displaced by Climate Change: Some Conceptual Challenges explores the conceptual challenges that arise in extending to migrants, who are displaced by climate change, the principles of rights protection that exist for these other designated categories of displaced people (Zetter 2012, 131). Upon analysis, he writes of broad concerns regarding issues of causality, and the extent to which climate change ‘forces’ displacement (Zetter 2012, 131). Most important to Zetter is the conceptual challenge of determining the locus of
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accountability and further, the responsibility for protection (Zetter 2012, 131). In so doing, he puts forth four conceptual challenges which underlie any attempt to develop rights-based protection for people displaced by the effects of climate change (Zetter 2012, 137).
First, Zetter discusses environmental change migration and the issue of causality. He writes that to develop viable protection solutions requires the identification of links between climate change, subsequent changes to environmental conditions and the propensity to migrate (Zetter 2012, 138). He cautions against attributing every negative environmental condition to climate change (Zetter 2012, 138). Furthermore, even where climate change plays a part in environmental change, empirical evidence points to the difficulty of disaggregating changes to the environmental conditions from the underlying socio-economic and political processes which might produce migration (Zetter 2012, 138). Thus, the decision to migrate has to be situated in a complex array of variables where the direct impacts of changing environmental conditions on economic livelihoods may be less significant than subsequent indirect impacts and broader social forces (Zetter 2012, 138).
Zetter writes as well that there is substantial evidence to show that communities adapt to relatively short-term variations in climatic conditions, such as drought, through periodic but temporary migration (Zetter 2012, 138). However, if considering climate change in terms of irreversible, slow-onset change over an extended period, then this has rather different implications for the volume and permanency of migration and thus the objectives and forms of protection measures (Zetter 2012, 138). Zetter does not want to downplay the importance of climate change in inducing or compelling the decision to migrate (Zetter 2012, 139). Instead, it is necessary to appreciate that whilst climate change may be one, albeit highly significant, variable which produces involuntary migration, this must be set within a wider context of social, economic and
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political factors, as well as other changes to environmental conditions, that underpins the reasons why people migrate (Zetter 2012, 139). Understanding these variables can only aid in the effort to extend human rights protections to those displaced.
Second, Zetter questions if climate change and its environmental impacts induce forced migration (Zetter 2012, 140). This is significant because many of the protection norms and instruments for other migrant categories are predicated on notions of force and involuntariness (Zetter 2012, 140). Zetter writes that the difficulty in making conclusive arguments for forced displacement is that, aside from episodic events, climate change is mainly generating slow-onset, incremental environmental degradation (Zetter 2012, 140). Therefore, in these circumstances, and with so many variables, it is harder to argue that climate change ‘compels’ or ‘forces’ displacement (Zetter 2012, 140). Zetter argues that the challenge here in developing the machinery of rights protection, lies in distinguishing between who is ‘forced’, uniquely, by a changing climate, as opposed to a combination of fundamental factors including climate change (Zetter 2012, 141). The implication for this differentiation frames the legal protection debate and demonstrates the complexity of the issue. What is the probability that government agencies could decisively determine that global climate change is the exclusive link which forces migration, rather then a combination of factors? To reach such conclusions would require indisputable evidence which at this time may be empirically impossible or too controversial to assert.
Third, Zetter frames protection for those displaced as a result of climate change as a moral obligation, a moral imperative (Zetter 2012, 144). As it becomes clearer that climate change impacts are largely irreversible, the conceptual and policy-making challenge rests on two contrasting theories of justice (Zetter 2012, 144). One argument highlights the humanitarian motivation for protecting people who are impacted by climate change (Zetter 2012, 144). The
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other argument relies on claims of restorative justice which submits some form of compensation is necessary where involuntary displacement, loss of livelihoods and resettlement occur (Zetter 2012, 145). These contrasting theories hold significant implications for the point of responsibility for protection and by extension, the capacity and the tools to deliver protection (Zetter 2012, 145). Sadly, in a world reliant on a globalized economy, morality seems to have been lost. In the summer of 2015, when Pope Francis spoke to this very obligation of caring for the planet and its people, he was hammered by critics as discouraging capitalism.
Fourth, Zetter asks, “What instruments might protect people displaced by climate change?” (Zetter 2012, 141). This conceptual challenge arises with the need to consider the type of norms and legal instruments which might be used to protect the human and other rights of people displaced as a result of climate change (Zetter 2012, 141). There appears to be lack of motivation or consensus for a new treaty to provide special forms of protection because the international community is unwilling to own the complexity of global climate change, as well as fiscal responsibility. Therefore, for now, the remaining recourse is to extend existing protection instruments (Zetter 2012, 141). What instruments are available and more significantly, how applicable are they since this will be contingent on how those displaced by climate change are labeled (Zetter 2012, 141).
Zetter’s conceptual challenges regarding climate change and migration form the foundation for the discussion regarding the governance of this population. By putting forth the causality of climate change and migration as exceptional, a wide combination of variables, Zetter frames the complication facing policy makers to create protections for such populations. In so doing, Zetter questions which institutions can adequately take responsibility for climate change migrants. The
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following will look to the writings of Christel Coumil for answers on this, specifically the question of the likelihood of amending the 1951 Refugee Convention.
Christel Coumil’s The protection of ‘environmental refugees’ in international law submits that the concept of climate refugees may disrupt the traditional categories of migration law but demands consideration as part of a more thorough plan (Cournil 2011, 364). Coumil says that the difficulty of isolating the environmental reasons among the circumstances of a migrant’s movement is a real impediment to formalizing the concept of climate refugee and developing possible status (Coumil 2011, 364). He argues, however, that without direct legal acknowledgement of those displaced, humanitarian protection gaps will widen (Coumil 2011,
364). As well, legal acknowledgement will legitimize the concept and help political policy to materialize (Cournil 2011, 383). Yet, the question remains. How should the international legal community most effectively address an issue as complex as environmental migration? Cournil examines potentials within existing laws and conventions while exploring current academic, political and expert debates on the necessary legal expectations for environmental migrants (Cournil 2011, 364).
According to Cournil, the first conceivable approach to defining and protecting
environmental refugees would be to amend international refugee law, specifically the Geneva
Convention (Coumil 2011, 365). The 1951 Refugee Convention relating to the status of refugees
gives a definition in international terms in Article 1, Section A, as:
A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.. .(Cournil 2011, 360 & 364).
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To amend this definition to include degraded environmental conditions that endanger life, health, livelihoods and the use of natural resources may seem reasonable, but is instead difficult and inadequate (Coumil 2011, 365). First, human rights language does not yet sufficiently define environmental dynamics and second, for political reasons, it is unlikely that such an extension of the text would be accepted at the global level (Coumil 2011, 366).
The main advantage of amending the Refugee Convention is that the States Parties already have operational systems of recognition in place (Coumil 2011, 366). Yet, this extension would exclude protection for persons internally displaced, which has proven to be the largest of this migration population. As well, it is improbable that many ‘environmental refugees’ would have the means to cross borders and successfully invoke new protection under the convention (Cournil 2011, 366). Moreover, the Refugee Convention has proven to be restrictive, especially in the context of identity-based isolationism and it is therefore unlikely the optimal solution to offer ‘mass’ protection (Cournil 2011, 366). Lastly, Coumil writes that the introduction of a protocol annexed to the Refugee Convention could not hide the thorny issue of economic, ecological and political responsibility at the root of such displacement (2011, 366).
Cournil argues that extending protection alternatives and protection of internally displaced persons is a plausible ‘medium term’ option (Coumil 2011, 368). Protection alternatives are intended to protect certain categories of asylum-seekers who do not meet the criteria of the Refugee Convention (2011, 369). Rather than renegotiating the Refugee Convention, it appears more realistic and faster to develop national or regional protection alternatives in anticipation of cross-border or inter-state climate migration (2011, 369). For instance, a select number of European countries by 2002 had extended legislative protection for people fleeing climactic disasters which resulted in the disruption of living conditions (2011, 369).
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Coumil submits that another option is to strengthen the rights of internally displaced persons (IDP) by including environmentally displaced persons which again has proven to be the largest of this migration population (2011, 371). Even though they are migrating and in need of protection, displaced persons within their own countries are not called ‘refugees’ because they do not enjoy international protection under the Refugee Convention (2011, 371). Since the adoption in 1998 of the non-legally binding Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, this population is known as internally displaced persons (2011, 371).
The Guiding Principles was an attempt to bring together rights and obligations in a single document, but, more importantly, it provided an international definition of IDPs by clarifying existing ambiguities and filling the gaps in international texts on internal migration (2011, 371). The definition is as follows:
Persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflicts, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human made disasters, and who have not crossed an internally recognized state border (371).
Organized in 30 principles over five sections, the guidelines outline protections from displacement, to protections during displacement, as well as rules of return, resettlement and reintegration. To date, approximately 20 governments have incorporated the Guiding Principles into their national legislation (2011, 371).
Coumil argues that a redefinition of the Guiding Principles to include other reasons such as people displaced owing to the effects of climate change would help overcome the difficulties in a non-consensual definition of climate or environmental refugees (2011, 372). The inclusion of a specific article could provide a comprehensive definition and protection on environmental displacement (2011, 372). However, Coumil writes, expanding the definition of IDPs would have
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the disadvantage of ‘diluting’ the protection of climate refugees by only extending rights to those internally displaced (2011, 372). As well, Coumil says, the effectiveness of the law might prove difficult in poor countries particularly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and climactic disasters (2011, 372).
Coumil also addresses the difficulty in revising international law relating to stateless persons whose state is in danger of disappearing because of climate change (2011, 366). The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) defines a stateless person as “a person who is not considered as a national by any State under the operation of its law” (Editor 2016). The disappearance of some island nation states with the rise in sea level, referred to as the ‘sinking islands’, will likely provoke the departure of tens of thousands of people (2011, 366). Cournil submits that the physical disappearances of state territories are a departure from traditional concepts in international law on stateless persons in that there is no denial of nationality (2011, 368).
Some scholars have proposed reinventing a legal category of a stateless person to foster the emergence of ‘climate statelessness’ (2011, 368). The UNHCR proposed in early 2011 that consideration be given to multilateral agreements that would allow populations at risk to settle elsewhere with a legal status (dual citizenship, respect for culture, right of residence, social benefits etc.) (2011, 368). Above all, the issue raised by climate displacement is precisely to protect, even extend, state links in spite of the physical disappearance of a state due to climate change (2011, 368). In so doing, populations could retain their nationality and those protections provided to citizens. To avoid becoming ‘climate statelessness’ would be ideal to holding onto basic human rights protections.
Coumil is thorough in his examination of institutional possibilities in extending protections to climate change migrants. Ultimately, Coumil bemoans the effectiveness of soft law options. The
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following examines additional policy-making attempts to extend protections to environmental migrants specifically the Cancun Framework Agreement of 2010.
At the climate change conference in Cancun in December 2010 (COP 16), a long-term
cooperative action to address climate change migration was agreed upon under the Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Cancun Agreement laid out four key points,
including; (1) A shared vision for long-term cooperative action; (2) Enhanced action on adaptation,
(3) Enhanced action on mitigation; and (4) Finance, technology and capacity-building (UNFCCC,
2011). While not legally binding, it nonetheless provides important, first of its kind, recognition of
the impacts of climate change on human movement and the need for States to recognize this
(McAdam 2012, vii). The provision regarding displacement reads as follows:
14. (f) Measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at the national, regional and international levels (McAdam 2012, vii).
According to a briefing by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on the COP 16 proceedings, the negotiations were widely seen as a “robust success” (UNEP Editor 2016). Furthermore, the summary declares, “The negotiating blocs have put multilateralism back on track to deliver meaningful action on climate change, bringing back the momentum and an atmosphere of trust it has lacked for some time” (UNEP Editor 2016). The UNEP summary goes on to praise the organizational updates of the Cancun Agreements which streamline the international landscape of climate negotiations (UNEP Editor 2016). These organizational changes hope to provide improved certainty on cornerstone issues such as global climate change induced displacement.
Jane McAdam’s Creating New Norms on Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Displacement: International Developments 2010-2013 looks at the impact of the Cancun Agreement in the years since. McAdam writes that the provision in the Cancun Framework Agreement has
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three important features (McAdam 2013, 13). First, it deliberately avoids questions of causation and responsibility, which are inevitably fraught (McAdam 2013, 13). Second, it frames movement broadly (not only as displacement) and acknowledges that migration and planned relocation can be forms of adaptation (McAdam 2013, 13). Third, it recognizes the need for multipronged strategies at different levels of governance rather than a single, universal response (McAdam 2013, 13). She argues that the crucial factor in states’ acceptance was because mobility was framed as a technical, rather than a political issue and presented as a legitimate part of a wider adaptation framework (McAdam 2013, 13).
McAdam argues from a legal perspective the provision is very weak. She says it is couched with a non-binding “decision” of the states parties to the UNFCCC and imposes no formal obligation on them, instead “inviting” them to undertake measures that assist “understanding and cooperation” on climate change related mobility (McAdam 2013, 13). Furthermore, the provision requires states neither to implement migration programs nor to “protect” people displaced by climate change (McAdam 2013, 13). However, McAdam does submit that, arguably, this is appropriate in this context: while the climate change regime provides high-profile hook for consideration of the protection and assistance concerns arising from migration and displacement, it is not a suitable forum in which to examine the complexity of these issues in a structured or comprehensive way (McAdam 2013, 13).
However, McAdam says from an advocacy perspective, the provision has far greater significance (McAdam 2013, 13). First, it evidences states’ recognition of the impacts of climate change on human movement and the need for strategies to address this (McAdam 2013, 13).
Second, it provides an important reference point and a ‘catalytic role’ for future initiatives seeking to tease out precisely what such measures might look like to sensibly consider options and undertake
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activities to address the issue (McAdam 2013, 13). Third, the provision anticipates that planning for displacement, migration and/or relocation will become a part of states’ national adaptation plans (McAdam 2013, 13).
Moving beyond the Cancun Framework Agreement, McAdam believes there is a lack of political will from states’ to assume new legal obligations in the context of protection (McAdam 2013, 20). Additionally, she says there has been strong pushback from states when questions of normative development or mandate extensions have been proposed, suggesting states are prepared to take only tentative steps to address the issue at this stage (McAdam 2013, 20). Therefore, McAdam argues that soft law can be important to creating a basis for dialogue between states and can enable them to experiment with new ideas without assuming formal commitments (McAdam 2013, 20). Finally, McAdam says, it is imperative that frameworks are attuned to the needs of those who will move which means that they must be underpinned and informed by high-quality research (McAdam 2013, 20).
Given the complicated causality and proven multiple variables relating to climate change and migration, non-binding soft laws will only widen protection gaps. Those populations most vulnerable, from least developed countries, cannot be left to rely on strained regional resources. As long as States are reluctant to amend protections under the Refugee Convention to environmental migrants and the effectiveness of the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement hinges on national resources and responsibility, affected communities will continue to struggle to have sustainable, reasonable livelihoods. As Roger Zetter astutely points out, there is a moral obligation of those states which polluted themselves to development to aid those states most affected. The optimal conditions in which resources can be evenly distributed are through the adoption of comprehensive, internationally binding governance which is unfortunately not on the policy-making
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horizon. The following section will look at the creation of the Nansen Initiative of 2012 which began as a platform for addressing climactic disaster induced cross-border displacement but has evolved into a promising voice for slow onset environmental migrant protection, as well.
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CHAPTER V
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
The strength of a people is measured by the well-being of its weakest members: for a better protection of those displaced by natural disaster.
Federal Counselor for the Nansen Initiative, Didier Burkhalter Bern, Switzerland (October 12, 2015)
Perhaps the most promising area of humanitarian response to environmental displacement is climactic disaster preparedness and risk management. As the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report noted, climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of weather related hazards which can cause loss of life, destroy livelihoods and homes and forcibly displace people from their communities (OCHA 2009, 4). This reality will drain already thin institutional resources. The following will use the Nansen Initiative and the Sendai Framework to examine the evolution of disaster management to disaster risk management and how this shift will impact the wider humanitarian response to climate change induced displacement. Through efficient disaster risk estimation and cooperative planning between regional governments and international organizations, environmental migration can be addressed more effectively. However, state leadership and funding is necessary to achieve this and those two fundamentals may not be currently working in tandem.
The IPCC released a special report in 2012 entitled Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. In this report, adverse impacts are considered disasters when they produce widespread damage and cause severe alterations in the normal functioning of communities or societies (IPCC SREX 2012, 2). More precisely, the report defines disaster as:
Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require
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external support for recovery (IPCC Glossary 2012, 558).
Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors, including anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, and socioeconomic development (IPCC SREX 2012, 2). Disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change focus on reducing exposure and vulnerability and increasing resilience to the potential adverse impacts of climate extremes, even though risks cannot fully be eliminated (IPCC SREX 2012, 2). The IPCC defines disaster risk management as:
Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, wellbeing, quality of life, and sustainable development (IPCC Glossary 2012, 558).
The IPCC special report emphasized future climate extremes, impacts and disaster losses.
The IPCC special report states, “A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events” (IPCC SREX 2012, 5). Furthermore, the report says, “Some climate extremes (e.g., droughts) may be the result of an accumulation of weather or climate events that are not extreme when considered independently” (IPCC SREX 2012, 5). Many extreme weather and climate events continue to be the result of natural climate variability however, natural variability will be an important factor in shaping future extremes in addition to the effect of anthropogenic changes in climate (IPCC SREX 2012, 5). The report stresses the importance of gathering optimal data, writing:
Extreme events are rare, which means there are few data available to make assessments regarding changes in their frequency or intensity. The more rare the event the more difficult it is to identify long-term changes. Global-scale trends in a specific extreme may be either more reliable (e.g., for temperature extremes) or less reliable (e.g., for droughts) than some regional-scale trends, depending on the geographical uniformity of the trends in the specific extreme (IPCC SREX 2012, 6).
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In the end though, the report states, “There is evidence that some extremes have changed as a result of anthropogenic influences, including increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases” (IPCC SREX 2012, 7).
The IPCC Special Report on managing the risks of extreme events also addresses economic impacts of climatic disaster events. The report states that economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased, but with large spatial and inter-annual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement, medium evidence) (IPCC SREX 2012, 7). Further, loss estimates are lower- bound estimates because many impacts, such as loss of human lives, cultural heritage, and ecosystem services are difficult to value and monetize, and thus they are poorly reflected in estimates of losses (IPCC SREX 2012, 7). Also, impacts on the informal or undocumented economy as well as indirect economic effects can be very important in some areas and sectors, but are generally not counted in reported estimates of losses (IPCC SREX 2012, 7). The report reminds readers that vulnerability is a key factor in disaster losses, yet it is not well accounted for (IPCC SREX 2012, 7). The difficulty in extreme event and risk management data collection must be improved to ensure proper precautions can be put in place for the safety and the security of communities.
The IPCC Special Report also looks at the variability trends due to exposure and vulnerability, concluding these are major drivers of changes in disaster risk (high confidence) (IPCC SREX 2012, 8). The report says that the severity of the impacts of climate extremes depends strongly on the level of the exposure and vulnerability to these extremes (high confidence) (IPCC SREX 2012, 8). Furthermore, the report says that development practice, policy, and outcomes are critical to shaping disaster risk, which may be increased by shortcomings in development (high confidence) (IPCC SREX 2012, 8). The special report concludes that countries more effectively
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manage disaster risk if they include considerations of disaster risk in national development and sector plans and if they adopt climate change adaptation strategies, translating these plans and strategies into actions targeting vulnerable areas and groups (IPCC SREX 2012, 8). These scientific updates on climate change are important but limited to just that, information. The issue mitigation and transformation occurs with political leadership and policy.
With the IPCC Special Report information and frustrated by minimal support and insufficient political pressure from states for existing climate disaster management programs, the governments of Norway and Switzerland launched the Nansen Principles in October 2012. Named for Fridtjof Nansen, the first Commissioner of High Refugees, the aim of the initiative was to build consensus among states about how best to address cross border displacement in the context of sudden and slow onset disasters (Kalin 2012, 48). The Nansen Principles were a direct outcome of an increased concern and acknowledgement of climate dynamics and the resulting human displacement following a conference on this topic hosted by government of Norway in June 2011 (Kalin 2012, 48).
According to Walter Kalin, the Envoy of the Chairmanship to the Nansen Initiative, by 2015 the consultative process had identified a toolbox of potential policy options to prevent, prepare for and respond to challenges of cross-border displacement in disaster contexts, including the effects of climate change (Kalin 2015, 5). He says that the deliberations with states, civil society, academics, international organizations and affected communities confirmed that the existing international and regional mechanisms, laws and of disasters (Kalin 2015, 6). The Nansen Initiative does not seek to develop new legal standards, but rather to build consensus among states on the elements of a protection agenda, which may include standards of treatment (Editor, About Us). Its outcomes may be taken up at domestic, regional and global levels and lead to new laws, soft law instruments or binding agreements (Editor, About Us).
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The Nansen Initiative’s Protection Agenda is the pinnacle of the consultation process meant to build consensus on addressing the needs of people displaced across borders in the context of disasters and climate change (Editor, About Us). As a contribution to future efforts to address cross-border disaster displacement, the agenda identifies three priority areas for action. The first is to enhance knowledge through improved data collection. Secondly, the agenda emphasizes enhanced use of humanitarian protection measures which include mechanisms for lasting solutions by harmonizing approaches at (sub-) regional levels (The Nansen Initiative 2015, V). Finally, the Protection Agenda recommends strengthening the management of disaster displacement risk in the country of origin by improving adaptation strategies, as well as prevention and response plans (The Nansen Initiative 2015, V). Most importantly, the Protection Agenda concludes that to implement these action priorities, there must be a forum for continued dialogue and coordination (The Nansen Initiative 2015, VI) Yet, the question remains which institution is best equipped to take on such a responsibility. Should there be an expansion of the independent Nansen Initiative model outside the UN system? Or, on the contrary, is the UN the top institution to advance disaster management and displacement while facing a future of climactic volatility?
The Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan took place in March 2015. Approximately 6,500 delegates attended the conference, including representatives of intergovernmental organizations, UN entities, NGOs, and the private sector, leading Margareta Wahlstrom, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on DRR, to call this “a truly multi-stakeholder conference” (USD 2015). Participants included 187 states, 25 Heads of State and Government and 100 ministerial-level delegates, in addition to many other senior leaders (USD 2015). An estimated 40,000 people took part in a range of conference-related events (USD 2015). Intense discussions resulted in the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
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Reduction 2015-2030, an internationally agreed plan to make the world safer from natural hazards (USD 2015). While the Nansen Initiative’s Protection Agenda focus is disaster preparedness and humanitarian protection for those displaced in this context, the Sendai conference and the resulting Sendai Framework, focus is primarily disaster risk prevention and community resilience. The implications in these diverging concentrations are important to note. The Protection Agenda addresses humanitarian protection efforts directly with recommendations of regional collaborations. The Sendai Framework emphasizes broader visions of resilience. Unfortunately, resilience can only carry a vulnerable community so far. Humanitarian protections must be primary in the wake of unimaginable climactic disasters.
What sets the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction apart from previous disaster frameworks, specifically the Hyogo Framework For Action in 2005 and Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World in 1999, is the significant shift to disaster risk management from disaster management (UNISDR 2015, foreword). In addition, the scope of disaster risk reduction has been broadened significantly to include both natural and man-made hazards and related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks (UNISDR 2015, foreword). There is also clear recognition of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction and the regional platforms for disaster risk reduction as mechanisms for coherence across agendas, monitoring and periodic reviews in support of UN Governance bodies (UNISDR 2015, foreword).
As exciting as it is to envision a structure of cross agendas and thorough reviews within the UN system, can marked achievements be realized in such a bureaucracy? The implications of delay regarding disaster management will cost lives. Taking this into account and the experience gained through the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action, the Sendai Framework outlines four priorities for action (UNISDR 2015, 14).
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The first action priority is to better understand disaster risk. Policies and practices for disaster risk management should be based on an understanding of disaster risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment (UNISDR 2015, 14). Such knowledge can be leveraged for the purpose of pre-disaster risk assessment, for prevention and mitigation and for the development and implementation of appropriate preparedness and effective response to disasters (UNISDR 2015, 14). At the national and local level, the framework emphasizes the promotion of relevant and practical data (UNISDR 2015, 14). The hope in so doing, especially at this level, is “to apply risk information in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capability and exposure of persons, communities, countries and assets, as well as hazard characteristics to develop and implement disaster risk reduction policies”
(UNISDR 2015, 15). At the global and regional level, the hope for action priority one is to promote common efforts in partnership with the scientific and technological community, academia, and the private sector to establish and disseminate and share good practices internationally (UNISDR 2015, 16). This cooperation would strengthen disaster risk modeling, assessment, mapping, monitoring and the implementation of multi hazard early warning systems (UNISDR 2015, 16). This priority may seem obvious but the 2012 IPCC Special Report stressed lack of reliable data as problematic and in need of improvement.
The second action priority is to strengthen disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk. To achieve this, the Sendai Framework emphasizes a clear vision and plans, competence with guidance and coordination within and across all sectors (UNISDR 2015, 17). A successful path to strengthening disaster risk governance is prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and rehabilitation and must include the participation of relevant stakeholders who will foster collaboration and partnership across mechanisms and institutions (UNISDR 2015, 17). To achieve
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this on the national and local levels, there must be a promotion of coherence in regard to strategy implementations aimed at preventing the creation of risk, the reduction of risk and the strengthening of economic, social, health and environmental resilience (UNISDR 2015, 17). The global and regional levels can foster efficiency and exchange good practices which address common and transboundary disaster risks (UNISDR 2015, 18).
Although the Sendai Framework recommends clear visions of governance for disaster risk management in its second action priority, to realize strengthened disaster risk governance may prove difficult. Successful implementation of cooperation and cohesive policies for all communities, across the wide socio-economic spectrum requires ethical practices. Besides integrity, this strategy will need thoughtful advocating. This simply may be too much to cleanly expect of officials and may expose the platform of protection to corruption.
The third action priority is to invest in disaster risk reduction for resilience. Such measures are cost-effective and instrumental to save lives, prevent and reduce losses and ensure effective recovery and rehabilitation (UNISDR 2015, 18). The national and local levels can oversee the allocation of the necessary resources, including finance and logistics, as appropriate, at all levels of administration for the development and the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies, policies, plans, laws and regulations in all relevant sectors (UNISDR 2015, 19). As well, the national and local levels can strengthen the design and implementation of inclusive policies and social safety-net mechanisms (UNISDR 2015, 19). The global and regional levels, most importantly, can encourage the coordination between global and regional financial institutions with a view to assessing and anticipating the potential economic and social impacts of disasters (UNISDR 2015, 20). Resilience and adaptation are key in the fight against disaster induced migration but also require substantial planning and preparation. As well, migration may prove to be the ultimate
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adaptation and unavoidable in certain events. The possible human cost of such episodes cannot be overstressed and precisely the reason for absolute humanitarian protections.
The fourth action priority is enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. The steady growth of disaster risk, including the increase of people and assets exposure, combined with the lessons learned from past disasters, indicates the need to further strengthen disaster preparedness for response, take action in anticipation of events, integrate disaster risk reduction in response preparedness and ensure that capacities are in place for effective response and recovery at all levels (UNISDR 2015, 21).
Disasters have demonstrated that the recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction phase, which needs to be prepared ahead of a disaster, is a critical opportunity to “Build Back Better”, including through integrating disaster risk reduction into development measures, making nations and communities resilient to disasters (UNISDR 2015, 21). At the national and local levels, to achieve the fourth action priority, early warning systems must be established along with public awareness campaigns (UNISDR 2015, 21). Also, new and existing critical infrastructures must be promoted with procedures for relief assistance (UNISDR 2015, 21). In addition, essential training of the existing workforce and voluntary workers in disaster response will strengthen technical and logistical capacities to ensure better response in emergencies and basic services in the post-disaster phase (UNISDR 2015, 21). The role of the global and regional levels should prepare for coordinated approaches and operational mechanisms which ensure rapid and effective disaster response in situations that exceed national coping capabilities (UNISDR 2015, 22).
The Sendai Framework fourth action priority of enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction is very layered and lofty. Again, from an advocacy perspective this priority proves ideal. In practice, to enhance
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preparedness, as well as plan in advance recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction may be seen as overwhelming. Also, there is a real disconnection from these lofty recommendations and what will be needed to put them in practice, especially funding.
Scott Paul, a senior humanitarian policy advisor at Oxfam America, wrote a scathing rebuke of the Sendai Framework in In the Wake of Cyclone Pam, Will the world’s new disaster risk reduction deal be an empty promise? In the article, Paul calls the Sendai Framework irresponsible and incomplete because there is no financial mandate attached (Paul 2015). Despite an emotional personal plea from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, wealthy countries are refusing to commit money to disaster risk reduction (Paul 2015). Paul points to the disconnect between the participating governments which appear to desire that the impact of natural hazards in the coming years are less deadly and damaging but have proven mute that this effort must happen in developing countries which lack financial and technical capabilities (Paul 2015). Put simply, Paul says, developing countries do not have the money to pay for disaster risk reduction programs themselves which seriously endangers the possibility of real progress (Paul 2015). He submits, by refusing to commit additional support, wealthy countries have essentially said to the most vulnerable, “You are on your own” (Paul 2015).
Furthermore, Paul says Oxfam and other organizations had hoped the Sendai Framework would set numerical targets, for example, reducing losses from disasters and increasing financial support from developed countries each by thirty percent by 2030 (Paul 2015). Instead, he says, negotiators have gravitated toward vague language in the framework (Paul 2015). He concludes that in the face of increasingly severe weather events, more must be done financially to build resilient resources for the most vulnerable communities.
At the time Scott Paul wrote this assessment and as the conference participants were adopting
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the Sendai Framework, Tropical Cyclone Pam was tearing through the small island nation of Vanuatu in one of the most devastating disasters of the South Pacific. Paul says that the residents of Vanuatu are not struggling to cope with Tropical Cyclone Pam because they lack initiative or political commitment to disaster risk reduction (Paul 2015). In fact, they have taken thoughtful steps over the years to prepare for such an event yet, with no mandated resource commitments in the Sendai Framework, the world’s poorest will pay the highest price, including Vanuatu (Paul 2015).
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Management (UNISDR) has been tasked to support the implementation, follow-up and review of the Sendai Framework (UNISDR 2015, foreword). The UNISDR claims to partner with regional organizations, countries and national platforms, parliamentarians, UN organizations, international financial institutes, science and technology research networks, as well as civil society and the private sector (Editor UNISDR). The UNISDR website lists more than 30 specific organizations as collaborators, so it must be asked how can such a management system be efficient? Are the intentions of absorbing an additional issue as important as disaster induced displacement too grand, especially given the suspected future of increased frequency and intensity due to global climate change?
Alexander Betts’ Governance questions for the International community examines how to frame the issues addressed by the Nansen Initiative and disaster risk management moving forward. Betts praises the enhanced understanding of the regional dynamics of environmental displacement, revealing examples of rapid-onset cross border displacements, as well as improving the understanding of the complex causality relating to slow-onset movements (Betts 2015, 72). Yet, Betts questions what will come next for the humanitarian response to climate change induced displacement? How can or should the international community build on the groundwork of the Initiative (Betts 2015, 72)?
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He writes that the obvious approach is to ask which mandates exist and where an emerging problem might fit (Betts 2015, 73). Betts puts forth that the two institutions most capable of carrying out the ‘Protection Agenda’ are the UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) (Betts 2015, 73). According to Betts, a select number of other high profile organizations could provide tandem support, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA), and the Emergency Relief Coordinator (ERC) (Betts 2015, 73).
Yet, thus far the work of the Nansen Initiative has been outside the United Nations (UN) system, so the question remains whether the issue is ready to be fully absorbed by the UN system (Kalin 2015, 7 & Betts 2015, 74)? Despite the capabilities of these actors, one of the insights from the Nansen Initiative has been recognition of state-led and regional organization focused strategies, with an advocacy structure outside the UN (Betts 2015, 74). Further, Betts write, there is a general recognition that the issue still requires a ‘champion’ to advocate and raise awareness among international and regional organizations and governments (Betts 2015, 74). This is likely to be important because of the sheer number of actors, forums and issue areas within which the mobility in the context of climate change would need to be addressed.
Betts puts forth three options for a future organization model. The first option would be improved UNHCR-IOM collaboration. Betts believes that the IOM has a comparative advantage in the area of migration and on the operational side, while the UNHCR has a comparative advantage in the area of displacement and on the protection side (Betts 2015, 74). As well, he says, IOM-UNHCR relations have improved considerably in recent years (Betts 2015, 74). Yet, according to Jane McAdam’s Creating New Norms on Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Displacement: International Developments 2010-2013, internally at the UNHCR, the organization remains divided
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about the extent in which it should be engaged with the subject and coordination of the area has been “passed around the agency like a ‘hot potato’” (McAdam 2013, 13). As well, she says, some states have voiced their displeasure with a perceived de facto shift in emphasis as the UNHCR engaged more and more with disaster-related displacement and the High Commissioner Antonio Guterres continued to highlight the protection gaps for those displaced by the impacts of disasters and climate change (McAdam 2013, 17 & 18).
The second option Betts proposes would be a Joint Support Unit with an inter-agency secretariat which would be directly accountable to state leadership (Betts 2015, 74). This model has been used in other processes such as the International Conference on Refugees in Central America (Betts 2015, 74). In this instance, a joint UNHCR-UNDP secretariat worked regionally from San Jose in order to coordinate finding durable solutions in Central American refugees in the aftermath of the civil war (Betts 2015, 74). Perhaps this would be successful if the inter-agency is organized regionally. The management system could be modeled off the Nansen Initiative consultation process for instance: Pacific, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Greater Horn of Africa, and Central America. The end goal is to be sure the issue stays forefront and does not get lost in an overcrowded, well-intentioned institutional debacle.
The third option Betts suggests for a future organization model would be to broader interagency mechanism on human mobility and natural disasters, with a rotating chair and possibly a small secretariat (Betts 2015, 74). He says the advantages of this kind of mechanism are that it would keep the issue on the table and a range of organizations would continue to engage with the issue (Betts 2015, 74). This suggestion would rely heavily, perhaps too much so, on the capabilities of the chairperson. For instance, without the strong personality, charisma and advocacy of former Emergency Relief Coordinator Sergio Vieira de Mello, the IDP framework may not have been
39


published in such a timely manner. De Mello is seen as central to distinguishing the issue of IDPs as an intersection of various humanitarian issues and making the framework a primary focus. Betts’ proposal of a rotating chairperson could make for a tenuous posting and a lagging response could literally cost lives.
In the end, Betts acknowledges the complexity of the issue, not only because of the knowledge gaps but also because it straddles so many different policy fields and levels of governance (Betts 2015, 75). At this stage, he argues, the main challenge is not to come up with definitive answers. Betts suggests instead, to build flexible structures that continue to advance understanding and framing of the issue while ensuring people in need of international protection do not fall through the cracks between existing institutional mandates (Betts 2015, 75).
One important variable Betts fails to address is the issue of financing for disaster risk management programs. For instance, when examining the funding status of organizations such as the UNISDR, there proves a wide gap between pledged monies and contributions received (Editor UNISDR). Even against a backdrop of global economic crisis and shrinking aid budgets, there has been an increase in donors which the UNISDR sees as a growth in confidence of their work (Editor UNISDR). However, securing those donations in a predictable, stable, and timely manner proves challenging (Editor UNISDR).
Unfortunately, most other international emergency organizations also struggle with a lack of funding such as the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), ERC, OCHA and the UNHCR.
There appears to be cross agency funding streams, but to trace these mechanism proves difficult without executive access. Requests for line item reports for general costs were denied due to security by the IASC and ERC. What appears on the websites of these organizations is largely reports on specific disaster events and rough readings show funding shortfalls. The costs of disaster
40


risk strategy and response is astonishing considering the 2015 OCHA country donor list of paid pledges alone totals more than $233 million dollars (Editor OCHA). This aspect of the humanitarian response to global climate change induced displacement cannot be ignored and strong country leadership will be imperative in moving forward. Especially given the IPCC assessment reports stating that climactic disasters will likely increase in intensity and frequency in the future.
The failure to take responsibility for consequences of climate change can be seen in the United States of America, notably with Republican Representative Lamar Smith of Texas. Smith was first elected to Congressional District 21 in 1987 and found admiration of from his peers as the chairperson of the US House Judiciary Committee during the 112th Congress, 2011-2012. He was then moved to the US House Committee on Science, Space and Technology during the 113th Congress, where he remains in the same position presently (as of April 2016). A glimpse of Representative Smith’s ‘work’ as chairperson of the Committee on Science, Space and Technology is an important study of the power of one, specifically the denial of climate change by one government representative. While scientists and advocates push for more efforts to mitigate global climate change, one high ranking official such as Rep. Smith can bring governance intervention and issue leadership to a stand still.
As the Obama administration escalated its fight against climate change with new environmental regulations, Smith filled hearing rosters with witnesses who have affiliations with the energy industry and policy experts representing conservative think tanks, not scientists (Rein 2015). The lawmaker is determined to debunk the science behind the president’s agenda (Rein 2015). In fact, he has publicly espoused the belief that scientists are deliberately manipulating the temperature record to manufacture the climate crisis (Abraham 2015).
Early in 2015, Rep. Smith used new subpoena powers at a previously unprecedented degree.
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In the first two years and ten months of his tenure as chairperson, Smith issued more subpoenas on behalf of the Science, Space and Technology Committee than had been issued in the committee’s 54 year history (Abraham 2015). One such subpoena was to compel the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to produce text messages and phone records for Administrator Gina McCarthy as it investigated proposed limits on ozone it said would amount to the most costly federal regulation in history (Rein 2015). He has also demanded EPA correspondence with outside groups on a range of environmental rules and regulations, to show that they collaborated with the Obama administration (Rein 2015).
Most notably, also in 2015, Smith issued a subpoena to challenge federal scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for colluding to doctor data in a pivotal global warming study that refuted the long-held notion that the planet’s warming had peaked (Rein 2015). Smith has demanded that the federal scientists and other NOAA staff turn over internal emails related to their research (Rein 2015). NOAA has responded by having scientists sit with Rep. Smith to explain the study, reminding the committee that house staffers lack the qualifications and expertise to actually analyze the data Smith has been requesting (Abraham 2015).
Chairperson Smith made a statement to the Washington Post in response to criticisms of excessive overreach. He said, “These are government employees who changed data to show more climate change. Political operatives and other NOAA employees likely played a large role in approving NOAA’s decision to adjust data that allegedly refutes the hiatus in warming” (Rein 2015). Furthering his argument in a December 2015 New York Times op-ed, Rep. Smith wrote, “The American people have a right to know the real motivations behind this study, which are clearly suspect” (Smith 2015). The NOAA has complied with certain aspects of the subpoena but has expressed concern for the honor of the scientific community and process. As recently as late
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February 2016, however, Rep. Smith has demanded full cooperation with the subpoena from the NOAA in the committee’s ‘continuing oversight of the quality and integrity of climate data” (Smith 2016).
US Rep. Smith has not only questioned domestic science on climate change but also has challenged the methods and conclusions by the IPCC. Several press release reports from his office, specifically in 2013 and 2015, cite evidence by the IPCC that “there is high agreement among leading experts that long-term trends in weather disasters are not due to human-caused climate change” (Press Release 2013). Rep. Smith further states, “The latest IPCC report states there is low confidence in any climate-related trends for flood magnitude or frequency on a global scale” (Press Release 2013). These citations are not footnoted. To account for this quotation without a source is near impossible due to the sheer volume of information the IPCC has released.2 Calls to Rep. Smith’s office and the Committee on Science, Space and Technology regarding this documentation oversight were greeted with concern. Eventually, an intern promised to track down the lead committee editor for verification but no information has since been returned.3
Republican Representative Smith’s denial of scientific information regarding global climate change and climactic events is relevant because as one of the highest ranking US officials he has the power to slow mitigation efforts not only through intimidation tactics of the professional scientists but financially, as well. In May 2015, under the leadership of chairperson Smith, the Committee on Science, Space and Technology slashed the fiscal budget for NASA’s earth science program 2016-
2 IPCC 2007 WGII Assessment Report 4, chapter 14, says that future weather disaster trends will remain uncertain without more sufficient climate model experiments and improved data. This may show the statement was taken out of its full context, but it is irresponsible to speculate without an accurate accounting for the quote.
3 Please note the following from Representative Lamar Smith’s website regarding contact: “Regrettably, I am unable to reply to any email from constituents outside of the district.” http://lamarsmith.house.gov
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2017 between 18 to 26 percent (Sheppard 2015). NASA Administrator Charles Bolden touted that “NASA leads the world in the exploration of and study of planets, and none is more important than the one on which we live” (Sheppard 2015). Bolden continued that the budget “guts our Earth science program and threatens to set back generations worth of progress in better understanding our changing climate, and our ability to prepare for and respond to earthquakes, droughts, and storm events” (Sheppard 2015). This funding shift is alarming and is due in large part to the power of one, the climate change denial of one.
The most promising area of humanitarian response to environmental displacement is climactic disaster risk management. Strong state led leadership is necessary to address this, especially in establishing mandated funding for preparedness programs at local, national, regional and global levels. A leadership structure modeled after the Nansen Initiative, outside the UN system, would create sufficient pressure for states to take responsibility and lend legitimacy to the issue. The need for responsibility and leadership is more important than ever, seeing as the global climate change science says with high confidence there will be an increase in frequency and intensity in future climactic disasters.
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CHAPTER VI
CONCLUSION
Although the issue of global climate change and migration is complex, there are variables which prove certain. The climate change science states with high confidence that the warming trends are due to anthropogenic activities and that without serious mitigation efforts the consequences will impact the natural and human order on all continents and across the oceans. A most significant implication will be the possible effects on human settlement.
Despite adaptation approaches and community resilience, the general deterioration of the quality of life of exposed populations will cause migration. Global climate change will likely exacerbate existing migration patterns and are likely to be over short distances and remain internal. The barriers to migration include financial, informational and legal.
Without an international legal definition for this population, the humanitarian response will be hindered. Without an extension of the Refugee Convention, international movement of climate change migrants will not be protected. The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement applies to a limited population. Non-binging soft laws and conventions will widen human rights protections from an advocacy perspective but international binding governance is optimal in ensuring that resources are distributed evenly to the most vulnerable communities. The legal failure of states to take responsibility of this population is problematic and slows the humanitarian response.
The most promising area for humanitarian success with environmental migrants is disaster risk management. The vision for a protection agenda put forth by the UN Sendai Framework is exciting from an advocacy perspective but insufficient without mandated funding and strong state led leadership. The Nansen Initiative serves as the best leadership model for advancing the humanitarian response to climate change induced displacement because it is independent of the UN
45


system and credibly led by Switzerland and Norway. At this time, the UN system is congested with bureaucracy and teeming with competing platforms.
The world cannot afford to lose sight of the consequences of global climate change, in terms of slow-onset alterations or climactic disasters which threaten communities and displacement so many. The issue of climate change induced migration will require a dedicated, state-led organizational model focused on risk management programs for local, national, regional and global with binding international laws and mandated funding. Only then will the most vulnerable populations be ensured equal access to humanitarian resources.
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PAGE 27

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PAGE 40

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