Citation
Impacts of Warming and Reduced Precipitation on Wildfire Activity in Colorado State

Material Information

Title:
Impacts of Warming and Reduced Precipitation on Wildfire Activity in Colorado State
Series Title:
2020 Data to Policy Symposium
Creator:
Bergstrom, Kirana
Physical Description:
Symposium Presentation

Notes

Abstract:
Wildfire damage in the United States is known to have increased in recent years in large part due to the effects of climate change. The relationship between wildfire damage and climate change has been shown on large geographical scales, such as for the Western United States and Canada. However, in the United States, many of the devastating economic and ecological effects of wildfires are felt on a statewide level. We use Bayesian analysis to examine the relationship of climatological variables such as temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, to the severity of the wildfire season in the state of Colorado.
Acquisition:
Collected for Auraria Institutional Repository by the Self-Submittal tool. Submitted by Kirana Bergstrom.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Auraria Institutional Repository
Holding Location:
Auraria Library
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.

Auraria Membership

Aggregations:
Auraria Library
Added automatically

Downloads

This item is only available as the following downloads:


Full Text

PAGE 1

!"#$%&'()*(+$,"-./($.0(1203%20( 4,2%-#-&$&-).().(+-50*-,2(6%&-7-&8(-.(9)5),$0)( :&$&2 !"#$%$&'(#)*+#,.,/(-0(#&123&4242 5$+$&4&6,7"89&:9-;,*"<-&4242 '$9(*"$%&:+$+"*+"8*3&=>?@&A1B13&C,*D<$&E#(%8D

PAGE 2

!"#$%"&'()*+*,'("-(./#/&*$/(01*1' ! !"#$%"&'()"*)+,+,)-.&*'$)/0'& 12,3,,,) 45&'()"*)6/#/&4$/ 7 ! 84&9') (54#'):;,,)<4=>)?"#$%"&'()54.(') @<') A4B/&"@C)/% @<') $4A49'(7 ! !"#$%&'()$"* +(,-./---0("1%$2/(345,(#6776&'8 ! D<')*.A-'&)/%) #4&9' E (54#')?"#$%"&'() "() "*5&'4("*9)'45<)C'4&)4()@<')5#"A4@') 5<4*9'( 7

PAGE 3

2&/3#'+ ! !"#$%&'()*&+),-"%.""(,/#&0$%",/*$(1",$(2,.&4",$/%&5&%6,*$5",-""(, ")%$-#&)*"2,78&##"%,"%9,:#9,;<<=>,?")%"4#&(1,"%9,:#9,;<<@A,3'4,#$41", )+$%&$#,)/$#")9 ! B+$%&'%"0+'4$#,4"#$%&'()*&+,")%$-#&)*"2,'5"4,"/'4"1&'(),7C')"+*,"%9, :#9,;
PAGE 4

!"#$%$&#'(&$#%)'*#+'*,-.)'/0-#.+'1&-'2*-". 3 ),*2.'45'677'8*9' :$2+1$-.)'$#';&2&-*+&'<%*%.='>?@6 3 A7>@B !"#"$%&#"'()*$+,%-$#.)$/%('#%,'(0$1,)(*2$'($ 34,($5)6),'#7$8,%9):# ; <'*)(2.'(= >$?@@AB ! F9*"@"/*)#/54@"/* ! G5&'()-.&*'$ ! F9*"@"/*)$4@' 1&-'2*-".'),*2.'45677'8*9' :$2+1$-.) $# ;&2&-*+&'<%*%.=' >?@6 3 A7>@B !"#$%&'('

PAGE 5

F9*"@"/*)$4@'()%/&)#4&9' E (54#')?"#$%"&'()"*)6/#/&4$/)(@4@'7)D<')("H')/%)@<')I/"*@() &'I&'('*@()@<')*.A-'&)/%)45&'()-.&*'$7

PAGE 6

.#"+*1'()*1* !"#$%#&&'(#)*+#,*-(.)*+(/.&.+#-.0 ! 1#2%343($*3"*+#$4+* ! 1%5%343($*3"*+#$4+* ! 6+*7%"%$#$%.5 ! 8+.4,9$(:6*#+;.5<;(-+.4,9$( 9'-+.&.,%7#&(%5-*2= 5$+$&$%F&8D$#+*&G#,.H>>&.$+",%$7&I(%+(#*&G,#& J%/"#,%-(%+$7&"%G,#-$+",%&K.H>>3&4242LM

PAGE 7

!"##$%&'()*+ , -./01$%2 345/$%' (6%$78'+$*%'907$#1$% , :6%4;2 <*/*'=6;4/'45/0'=$*=05=

PAGE 8

4*5'6"*-( 7'-'&*#"8'$( 9"-'*&(:/$'# !"# $ ! % & " ' & # ( ) *+, ./01*. 2 ! ' & $ ( 3 455 ,05. 2 ! ' & % ( ) *+, ,05. 2 ! ( 6*/0 174+, 2 ! 8 $ ! 9 :7*337+ $ ! & & 9 ; < = > $ $ & $ $ ! 9 ?@41AB ' < = C J/&('(
PAGE 9

:/$'#(;*#"$"15 !"#$%$&'()*'+' ,-*.(

PAGE 10

!"#$%&"'()**)+,! C11.,%)'&1'$#,-.*).)'*#+'+.,-.*).)' $#' .D(2*#*%&-E'F*-$*/2.)'&#'#0K/.-' &1'1$-.) ! G$#.)'*-.'K.+$*#)'&1'A7=777' )*K(2.) BBB%8.).'-.)02%)'*-.'K$)2.*+$#"'/.,*0).'%8.' .D(2*#*%&-E'F*-$*/2.)'*-.',&--.2*%.+

PAGE 11

!"#$%&' (%)*'"+ !"',%-%*.*%#)+ /001 2300'"+ 4'0-'".*3"'+ /5'&6%)1 (%)*'"+ 4'0-'".*3"'+ /5'&6%)1 78-',*'9+ :30;'"+#$+<%"'= K"*"A.A +LL7MM; +N;7NN +LL72; M K'$"4* MN+7LO1 +N17;P +O,7LM L K'4* MNP7L2M+ +N17PLM; +O,7LM+1 L K4Q"A.A MM+7,M; +NL7NN +O+7NP ;, 2&/%"#'6

PAGE 12

<-*#56"6 ! !"*@'& 4*$ (.AA'& A4Q"A.A @'AI'&4@.&')4*$)?"*@'&)I&'5"I"@4@"/*)54*)I&'$"5@) @<')9'*'&4#)@&'*$)/%)4**.4#)%"&')5/.*@7 ! G( @'AI'&4@.&' "*5&'4('( 4*$ I&'5"I"@4@"/* $'5&'4('(3)@<')*.A-'&)/%)#4&9' E (54#')?"#$%"&'()4**.4##C)"*)6/#/&4$/)?"##)"*5&'4('7 ! D<')A/$'#)A4C)(.%%'&)%&/A)5/&&'#4@'$)04&"4-#'()4*$)#45R)/%)$4@4):/*#C)P,,)%"&'()"*) @<')$4@4('@>7

PAGE 13

2/#"=5 ! S/#"5"'() 4&')*''$'$)@<4@)?"##)$"&'5@)"*5&'4('$) %.*$"*9)@/?4&$() "*"@"4@"0'()@/)(#/?) @<')(I''$)/%)5#"A4@')5<4*9'7 ! S/#"5"'() 4&')*''$'$)@<4@)?"## $"&'5@)"*5&'4('$)%.*$"*9)@/?4&$()%/&'(@)A4*49'A'*@) 4*$)%/&'(@)('&0"5'(7 ! T*5'&@4"*@C)"*%/&A4@"/*)54*)-').('$)@/)/-@4"*)'(@"A4@'()%/&)'A'&9'*5C)%.*$"*9) 4*$)&'(/.&5'()@<4@)A4C)-')*''$'$)"*)%.@.&')C'4&(7

PAGE 14

!"#$%&'()

PAGE 15

)*1*(0/>&='6 M7 U'%%'&C) V"$'*(<"*R 3)W'*)X&'?'&3) Y<"#"4*9 Y<.3)X&4$)Z.4C#'3)4*$)[@'I<'*) J/?4&$7)G)I&/B'5@)%/&)A/*"@/&"*9)@&'*$()"*)-.&*)('0'&"@C7)\"&')V5/#/9C3)P3)MM) +,,L7 +7 ]^GG)]4@"/*4#)6'*@'&()%/&)V*0"&/*A'*@4#)"*%/&A4@"/*3)6#"A4@') 4@)4)_#4*5' `) [@4@'?"$')D"A')['&"'(3)I.-#"(<'$)]/0'A-'&)+,+,3)&'@&"'0'$)/*)a'5'A-'&)M3) +,+,)%&/A <@@I(`bb???7*5$57*/4479/0b549b

PAGE 16

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